Monday regional forecasts...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:21 PM GMT on July 31, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 8/3)
Marvelous. What a great day today was outside weatherwise. Skies were partly cloudy to mostly cloudy under that northwest instibility flow. Temperatures were in the 70s to low 80s with endless visibility. For once this summer a day without haze. Also a lovely northwest breeze. Almost felt sort of chilly today, lol. Well today I was up in central Pennsylvania in Centre County to visit Penn's Cave. This is a very interesting cave in which boats take tourists throughout the cave. Also there is an animal safari tour in the same complex. Penn's Cave is the only cave in which tours are give completely by boat. Pretty interesting trip that I recommend to everyone. Though it was a little chilly as the cave is perminitely 52degrees with a water temperature of 38degrees. The cool limestone water fed from a natural spring makes a perfect habitat for large trout which followed the boat. Some of the largest Rainbow trout I have ever seen in fact. The region in Centre County is part of a large geological region in central Pennsylvania called the Ridge and Valley region. The ridge and valley region is one of the most scenic regions in Pennsylvania. It stretches from the mountains just east of the Laural Highlands up north through central Pennsylvania with the southern border formed naturally by Blue Mountain. The mountains in this region stretch to impressive elevations near 2500ft in some areas. The mountains were actually formed millions of years ago by the glaciers the pushed up the ridge tops. Then as the glaciers melted naturally formed creeks/streams formed carving out the mountain valleys. There is just something about the thrill of driving through a mountain side as babbling creeks run down the side of the road and light dapples through the trees. With the lush green ferns on the forest floor to the tall Eastern Hemlock trees creating a canopy in which sunlight is very limited. And as you rise with elevation and look at over the scenic vistas over the farm side, the beauty of Pennsylvania is at its utmost best. I could tell today that the valleys in this region has received quite a bit of rain as the field corn was quite impressively well developed and tall. Air temperatures ranged from 74degrees in the valley floor to 68degrees on the mountain tops. What a great, relaxing Sunday!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Short Term Forecast" (Updated 7/31) (Friday through Saturday night)
A weak high pressure associated with a slowly departing trough keeps fair weather in the forecast for Friday. After some radiational cooling, some ground fog may form early Friday in the river valleys creating visibilities as low as 1mile, but that will dissipate by 8am. Winds will be from the northwest and a bit breezy at times. Dewpoints will remain lower and in the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the day. The region remains under an upper level CAP so no instability thunderstorms are expected. For Friday night skies remain relatively clear, except there will be increasing clouds later in the night moves from west to east. Another cold front approaches the region along with showers and thunderstorms and then followed behind by another trough. Lows Friday night will be muggy and in the low to mid 60s with some patchy fog limiting visibilities to as low as 2miles. Models really diverge on solutions for the forecast for Saturday. The GFS and EURO show a MCS over the state in the morning hours followed by some leftovers showers in the afternoon. The NAM shows a lighter precipitation scenario with just widespread showers and thunderstorm, with not much of any organization. It is hard to say which scenario will be exact at this point, but in any case showers and thunderstorms are possible over the entire state. Severe weather should not be too much of a threat, but some places could see some storm reports. It is a little questionable on the thermodynamics end of the equation as the debris clouds from morning convection could limit severe weather for in the afternoon. Shear levels are pretty high Saturday. In any case the front moves through by evening with clearing skies from west to east. Lows Saturday night will be in the 60s with variable skies.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Long Term Forecast" (Updated 7/31)
Looking at the long term the forecast has changed over the last couple of days. It appears the heat will be slightly delayed until Monday as a trough remains situated over the state on Sunday with cooler temperatures. Then the western ridge tries to move north with a southwesterly flow. A tight flow should develop with northwesterly winds keeping temperatures cooler across the north, but a southwesterly wind in the south keeping hot and humid temperatures. This contrasting area will move northward as the trough is pushed out of the northeast. This will keep the active jet stream situated over Pennsylvania. Several large impulses will move along the front, which could make for some very strong complexes of thunderstorms rotating along the north end of the ridge. The storms will be nondiurnally driven with an MCS organization. A cold front moves in for Wednesday with more potential severe weather. Next week looks quite active at this point with high temperatures and high dewpoints followed by severe thunderstorms. Models slightly differ on their scenarios. The EURO is quite cooler and keeps the trough parked over the northeast, but the GFS brings in the warmth from the ridge with even the 20C isotherm over the NY/PA border, which is quite indicative of high heat. If the EURO solution plays out we could be move stormy as this would put Pennsylvania in the bullseye for these complexes of thunderstorms. The GFS would place these MCSs over parts of New England. Overall the long term is a very low confidence forecast, and changes can be expected almost daily. Stay tuned...

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 7/31)
Looking at the wildfire outlook, threat conditions remain low over Pennsylvania. Common thunderstorms within the next several day period will provide adequate moisture over Pennsylvania. Also winds will not be overly excessive and dew points will be high. Also looking at soil moisture anomalies across Pennsylvania they are wetter than normal over western Pennsylvania, and about normal over eastern Pennsylvania. There really is not much fuel for any forest fire development. Across the nation things are pretty quiet in terms of fire development. But as in the summertime fires are always a threat in the west. Here are some criteria for forest fire development in Pennsylvania courtesy of the State College NWS weather criteria page. Link...

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and
2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and
3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/31)
It actually has been a pretty quiet animal week in my backyard. Still the normal activities with squirrels swinging from tree to tree like Spider Monkeys. But one thing different is the chipmunks. While they may look cute to some people they are full of trouble. Digging holes up through my entire yard, and running around across my deck in the backyard, ugh! Birds have been very active lately along with many of those butterfly moths (I am uncertain of their scientific name). My butterfly bush, which I must say is the most impressive one I have ever seen, is always full of movement from moths, to butterflies, to hummingbirds, and bumblebees. My vegetable garden is doing pretty well, though I have noticed my zucchini crops are now coming in much slower. In fact I pulled out one of the plants that died. My carrots are slowly recovering after the tips were all eaten by the groundhog. Which reminds me... Ugh, that groundhog is getting bolder. Two days ago I woke up early in the morning and it was after one of those cool mornings with a lot of dew. There sat the groundhog sun bathing himself in front of my shed on the wooden ramp. Then a few minutes later I looked out and there he is standing up on his back legs with one of my tomatoes in his mouth. What a funny, but yet frustrating scene it was. Since then I have yet to see the groundhog again. Now back to my garden... I am amazed on how well my spring onions are doing after I planted the bulbs about a week ago. They are already 3inches tall. My spinach as many of you know has been slow to grow even though I have it in the shade during the heat of the day. My tomatoes I have been picking, they are roma tomatoes. My cucumbers are about ready for some of them to be picked. The string beans are continuing to produce out of this world. The pepper plants are slowly producing small peppers that get larger every day. My buttercrunch lettuce seeds have sprouted and are growing at a very fast rate. My local nursery is getting in some broccoli and cauliflower plants soon, so I am going to run up when they arrive to get some of those plants for a fall harvest. My garden is doing quite well. Now onto to the forecast. Soil moisture anomalies are normal to above normal across the state for this time of year. But with strong summer sun each day and heat, watering is needed almost everyday except on days with rainfall. Looking ahead for the next week there are several chances of rainfall, but in the convective form, which means not everyone will see rain. Overall though the week looks to be pretty typical for summer with some thunderstorms and 90-degree weather. Happy gardening!

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 8/2)
Alright here is the severe weather outlook for August 2. A complex storm system is entering the eastern CONUS region. A cold front is situated across western Pennsylvania this morning followed by a trough. Meanwhile a warm front is lifting northward across the region situated near the Mason-Dixon line this morning at evident by atmospheric moisture with PWATs to the south near 1.7inches and to the north around 1inch. A low pressure center will develop along the warm front/cold front interaction near NYC. Winds aloft are very high near 50knots for bulk shear values with helicity near the low's center of 100-200. EHI values though remain pretty low. Thermodynamics are relatively weak for August standards for a severe weather outbreak, but the overall jet dynamics should make up for that. Severe storms will organize into small clusters before coming more linear. Supercells are possible with some rotation possible especially in extreme eastern Pennsylvania. CAPE values will reach a max of 2000 j/kg near where the strongest instibility is which will likely be in any areas that receive sunshine today. I think the area with the best chance of severe weather will be in eastern Pennsylvania where wind damage is the primary threat. Freezing levels are lower than normal due to the cold pocket aloft moving over the region and they range from 10,000 to 12,000ft. But I do not think hail will be too much of a threat today. Stay tuned to your local NWS today for updates incase of possible rotation with any of the cells. Also training thunderstorms may be a threat as already evident this morning in Somerset and Tioga/Potter Counties.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (August)
Here is my experimental monthly outlook for the month of August. July has already come to an end and here is a little recap. Overall the month came out about normal for temperatures along with varying areas of precipitation anomalies. Some areas saw normal, below normal, or above normal precipitation. Overall my forecast turned out very well with my call for normal temperatures and normal precipitation. I am very pleased with how everything turned out. Now we look ahead to the last of the meteorological summer months. August is known for its complexes of thunderstorms and scorching heat. So what can be expected... Will it be hot and dry? Will it be cool and wet? Well below is my look for what I believe will be the August weather for this year...

Temperature- Looking at temperatures as we enter the month heat will be across much of Pennsylvania with temperatures above normal and in the 90s. But then a trough moves back into the region, and by next week the models really bring in a deep trough over the eastern sections of the nation. Looking at the NAO it looks to be staying negative through the entire month of August, which is indicative of eastern trough development. Now on the other side of the nation in the west the PNA will be moving towards a positive state, which correlates to a ridge over the west and trough over the east. So looking at the first part of the month will be warmer than normal temperatures followed by cooler than normal temperatures the last two thirds of the month. So overall temperatures should average about normal when it is all said and done and the warm air balances with the cool air.

Precipitation- Precipitation should be above normal for much of the state for August 2008. An active jet looks to be stationed over the region with first large MCSs moving along the northern perimeter of the ridge associated with warm air advection. This will bring heavy rain with these thunderstorm complexes. Then with the sudden pattern change from ridge to trough a large cold front should bring in some heavy thunderstorms. By the time the trough moves in many short waves will rotate in on the northwest flow. The driest area will probably be in eastern Pennsylvania with the wettest in northwestern Pennsylvania. But overall most areas should be above normal. This will be good for our lawns and gardens. Looking at drought conditions across the state all areas are not in any threat of a drought in the future.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 8/3)
So here we go again. Another tropical storm that quickly developed off the Gulf Coast and is headed towards Texas. This system has been quickly developing throughout the day. This afternoon it became a tropical depression. Tropical Depression 5 was not too impressive with its appearance and did not have to much convection around the center. But within the last few hours pressure dropped several pressure readings now down to 1002mb. Convection is now forming around the center of circulation with further intensifing likely. Shear values remain low around 0-5knots over the system with sea surface temperatures over the stregthening threshold of 26C. So now the system is Tropical Storm Edouard with winds sustained at 50mph as of the last advisory of 8pm. The storm is moving west at 4mph eyeing up the Texas coastline. High pressure remains to the north of the storm which will allow Tropical Storm Edouard to travel along the southern extent of the strong heat ridge. I was just looking at the latest water vapor loop and it appears the system will not be fighting too much dry air, though there is some dry air over Texas and in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Ed. Based on the current statistics with this strengthening storm I would not be surprised if hurricane status is reached before landfall. I am thinking at this point landfall may be pretty close to Galveston, Texas as a category 1 hurricane. But as many know intensity forecasts are quite difficult with the tropics. If this slow speed continues there could be even more strengthening. This storm should be a very heavy rain producer with lots of deep convection. This system requires monitoring throughout the next day or two. I am thinking landfall may come early Tuesday afternoon. Stay tuned for further updates. Elsewhere across the atlantic a weak wave is moving westnorthwest currently north of the Lee Ward islands. Development chances are not too likely in the immediant term as shear levels are near 25knots over the system, but recently 99L is showing signs of gaining some intense convection. 99L will also need to be monitored in teh coming days. Elsewhere just some weak disturbances across the Carribeans.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"


"Regional Forecasts" (Updated 8/4) (Monday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Sunshine across the region. Slightly warmer. High 86-87.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Mostly sunny skies. Warmer. High 87-89.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Sunshine. Warm. Some haze (6-9mile vis.). High 89-91.

4. Central- (State College)-
Partly cloudy. Warmer. High 84-86.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Partly cloudy skies. Warmer. Humidity increasing towards evening. High 82-84.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Partly cloudy skies. Warmer and more humid. Slight chance of a thunderstorm towards evening. High 84-86.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Mostly sunny skies. Warm. High 83-85.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 3
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 25

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 3.47inches
Yearly Precipitation- 27.85inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 12

Thunderheads... (Blizzard92)
Thunderheads...
Interesting cloud picture from distant tornadic thunderstorm... (Blizzard92)
Possible mammatus clouds...
Interesting cloud picture from distant tornadic thunderstorm...
Interesting cloud picture from distant tornadic thunderstorm... (Blizzard92)
Possible mammatus clouds...
Interesting cloud picture from distant tornadic thunderstorm...

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177. dean2007
2:20 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Fulton County in North Central Indiana
Marshall County in North Central Indiana
southern La Porte County in Northwest Indiana
northeastern Starke County in Northwest Indiana

* until 1115 PM EDT/1015 PM CDT/

* at 914 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm with strong rotation. This severe storm was
located near Brems... or 5 miles northwest of Knox... and moving
southeast at 57 mph.

* Locations in the path of the severe storm include...
Plymouth...
Culver...
Argos...
Bourbon...
Oak Grove... Ober and Donaldson...
Hibbard... Burr Oak and Twin Lakes...

This is a particularly dangerous situation!!!

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
destructive winds in excess of 80 to 100 mph..

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
sturdy shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest
ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

This severe has a history of producing widespread wind damage across
Northwest Indiana. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Go to a
basement or small interior room. Evacuate Mobile homes... and seek
shelter inside a sturdy structure.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Lat... Lon 4148 8677 4146 8653 4144 8653 4144 8648
4145 8647 4141 8607 4117 8607 4117 8608
4110 8608 4110 8607 4104 8607 4131 8688
time... Mot... loc 0216z 293deg 50kt 4135 8664
176. dean2007
1:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
This is a truly amazing storm complex. 94mph gusts. WOW WOW WOW WOW! Hey Blizzard do you the ingredients for such a complex. I bet its comparable to the microburst of 2005 here on Cape COd, MA. Although I was not able to witness that.
175. Zachary Labe
1:56 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
Well signing off for the night. Expect a new severe weather formatted blog for tomorrow morning to be issued. This system in Chicago may become a player in Pennsylvania's severe weather tomorrow. Details coming tomorrow. Have a wonderful rest of your night!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
174. Zachary Labe
1:53 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I hope they heed the warning. This is a very serious situation. Even a special severe thunder watch was issued called a particularily dangerous situation. About once a year these are issued.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
173. TheRasberryPatch
1:51 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
yes blizz i can believe the groundhog did it.
i just checked out the storm out near chicago and heading towards my inlaws just north of south bend.
they also mentioned that torndaoes could form without warning. the radar looked pretty intense with a bow echo.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
172. Zachary Labe
1:48 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Can you believe he actually broke on of my stakes holding the fence up, ugh!

dean2007- Western NY does for sure. They have had some very strong derechos in their past. Latest storm report...
0825 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NNE CHICAGO 41.93N 87.60W
08/04/2008 M94.00 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
171. dean2007
1:45 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
Wow structure damage. These winds must be intense. Does SOuthern New England ever get storms like this. I guess not. I wonder if western NY could?
170. Zachary Labe
1:42 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
dean2007- I know, this is insane. Echo tops actually got to an outstanding 70,000ft. Look at the latest warning...

* AT 932 PM EDT/832 PM CDT/...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
THESE SEVERE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 29 MILES NORTH OF BURNS HARBOR
TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKES OF THE FOUR TO 30 MILES WEST OF DE
MOTTE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 52 MPH. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGE IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF CHICAGO INCLUDING
STRUCTURE DAMAGE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE BUT NOT
LIMITED TO...
WESTVILLE AND MICHIGAN CITY...
TRAIL CREEK...
ST. JOSEPH...
FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HARBOR AND BENTON HEIGHTS...
KNOX...
BUCHANAN AND WINAMAC...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
169. TheRasberryPatch
1:42 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
Blizz, i haven't seen the groundhog since i put that post in the ground. if you want tomatoes you really should buy one. my garden has been untouched since, i think
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
168. dean2007
1:39 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
Blizzard, there appears to be widespread damage according to the storm reports by the SPC. A PDS issued for the Severe Watch in Indiana. Chicago is getting smacked around by a big schoolyard bully. 80mph winds reported with shingles ripped off and I heard a home collapsed. Possible tornadoes also. The Severe thunderstorm watch included winds around or higher then 90mph. Also one of the cells that moved over Chicago was producing hail of 3" in diameter as well as a cloud top of 56,000 feet in altitude. I can't believe the mess this complex will leave in its wake and its not even over for a while.
167. Zachary Labe
12:36 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Well that is ashame. Garden here is doing great, but I guess I have no comparisons with other years as this is my first year. Spring onions are really growing. Spinach grows at a snail's pace. Buttercrunch lettuce is growing great. Tomatoes are ok, a few again eaten by the groundhog. Zucchini mostly dead. Cucumbers are very slow to grow. Herbs are great. Pepper plants are growing faster. Everything is doing pretty well. By the way look at the dangerous situation unfolding in Chicago. Major derecho moving through. I am worried about widespread damage.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
166. TheRasberryPatch
12:31 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
my plants are doing ok. probably one of my worst years for tomatoes. just can't get any production and very little turning red. the few i have had were ones i picked off when they were green and let them turn red on the porch.
cucumbers are almost dead. peppers look great. i have many on the plants and one is yellow. onions are done. just waiting for me to pull the rest out.
carrots i think are done. think the groundhog did too much damage to them and same with the brocolli. brocolli was looking so good. but i will let it stay. the plant hasn't curled on similar like it was dead.
how about your garden, blizz?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
165. Zachary Labe
12:15 AM GMT on August 05, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Thanks. How are your plants? Yes cheesy cauliflower is my absolute favorite! I highly doubt the rain is going to last.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
164. TheRasberryPatch
11:57 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
good luck with those plants. i love cauliflower. and those new steaming bags make them so good. and for an additional treat get a good spreadable cheddar and melt it with a splash or two of milk and pour over your cauliflower. mmmmmm
is this little bit of rain going to make it over the mountains.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
163. Zachary Labe
8:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
Well I dug up two dead zucchini plants. Now I just bought 4 cabbage plants and 3 cauliflower plants.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
162. Zachary Labe
6:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yep another lovely day!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
161. TheRasberryPatch
4:43 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
so far today has that feel of a warm fall day in late September or October. it is so nice, warm with low humidity and a nice breeze.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
160. dean2007
4:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
Ok thanks!
159. Zachary Labe
3:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
dean2007- I still am gathering details on it, but looks like frontal passage will be slightly earlier than orginially thought. Tuesday and Tuesday night may now be the active days. But still a few severe storms could form along the coastline up through New England right before the front passes through. I will have a blog out by tomorrow morning detailing all of the severe weather threat.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
158. dean2007
3:43 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
Thanks Blizzard. Well I guess I won't get my hopes up. Anything for the severe weather on wednesday?
157. Zachary Labe
3:40 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
dean2007- I doubt it. Upper levels very dry, little triggering mechanism, weak dynamics. If anyone should see showers it will be across the higher terrain where orographic lift gives some boost to storm development.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
156. dean2007
3:37 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
NWS in Taunton, MA says a chance of storms from Southern NH to Eastern MA. I'm wondering if that includes those of us on Cape Cod, Blizzard?
155. Zachary Labe
2:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
jthal57- Yep, it reminded me of fall too, which really is right around the corner. August brings the end of the meteorological summer. I saw some of those showers in the poconos. Almost reminded me of lake effect snow synoptic setups in the winter.



***I updated my Monday regional forecasts. I decided to post a new blog tomorrow in a severe weather format. All updates will be taken care of in that blog. So for today no new updates can be expected.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
154. jthal57
1:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
Blizzard-Sunday was a beautiful day. We saw a lot of cumulus for much of the afternoon, some showers fell to the north and west of me but nothing here. Almost gave me a feeling of fall!
153. Zachary Labe
12:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
shoreacres- Good morning!!! Thanks for stopping in. Well at least Ed may not be as strong as originally thought as so far it has been slow to strengthen. But as always it is better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Stay safe down there! Hope you have a nice day!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
152. shoreacres
12:16 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
Morning, Blizzard,

Thanks for stopping by my blog, and for the greetings. Actually, I am directly in the current path of Mr. Ed - on Galveston Bay, roughly, Clear Lake specifically. If you look on the WU interactive radar map, you'll see League City between two of the TS icons - that would be me.

Off to have a fun day. A bit of prep left, including the decision of whether to roll out the plywood for the windows I can board up. Just now, I think "no", but we'll give it another 6-8 hours and see what's up.

Have a great day!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
151. TheRasberryPatch
1:30 AM GMT on August 04, 2008
thanks for the update Blizz. have a good evening.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
150. Zachary Labe
1:12 AM GMT on August 04, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good evening!!! Summer days like this cannot get any better. As for this coming week (I will have my full discussion out tomorrow) it should be a normal summer week. Warmer weather moves in for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with highs near 90degrees. Thunderstorms move in for Wednesday, some could be severe. That system moves out for a nice Thursday. Then a very deep trough, which I have been mentioning before, will move into the region with some northwest instibility clouds/rain showers and very cool temperatures. Then for the weekend as of now looking pretty nice with cool temperatures and partly cloudy skies. I will provide more details tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
149. TheRasberryPatch
1:06 AM GMT on August 04, 2008
Nice report Blizz. it was a gorgeous day. i was golfing after 2pm and except for some strong breezes it was glorious.
Just a comment if you ever want to see monster rainbow trout check out the website for monster lake. it is out in montana i think and it is catch and release. i remember watching it on one of ESPN wildlife shows.
any thoughts on the upcoming week and the weather.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
148. hurigo
12:15 AM GMT on August 04, 2008
Blizz, somehow I feel as though you visited my blog before I swept and straightened things up and baked a cake. I hadn't put my photos up yet! But there they are there now.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
147. Zachary Labe
12:14 AM GMT on August 04, 2008
hurigo- It was a nice day! I love summer day trips.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
146. hurigo
12:10 AM GMT on August 04, 2008
Blizz, sounds as though your day was much better then mine, although I'm still mulling over what it was about today that was so odd. I can't imagine purposefully going into a cave, but somehow the way you tell it, it sounds like a nice mini-vacation.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
145. Zachary Labe
11:53 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
dean2007- Cannot wait to see the pictures! I saw on the Water Vapor loop this morning, the low pressure spin which just kept upper levels moist enough for cold pocket pulse thunderstorms. I always like those setups. Interesting to watch develop.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
144. dean2007
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Well it appears another severe weather storm went poof throughout the day. Very impressive photos of the storms that kept moving west to east to my north. The low pressure center was triple point today and was never far enough south to enhance storms here on Cape Cod, MA. The Taunton, MA NWS seems to zero in on Wednesday for a possible thunderstorm day. I'll have more in my blog later on.
143. Zachary Labe
11:30 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
hurigo- Lol, while you were at the beach, I was in a cave today. I visited Penn's Cave which in is central Pennsylvania. It is the only cave in the world that offers a boat tour in the Limestone creek that runs through the cave. The tours put visitors in small boats and then you travel through the cave. Pretty interesting. Temperatures inside the cave were 52degrees air temp. and 38degrees water temp.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
142. hurigo
11:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
I put some beach pics on my blog and a short narrative. You can see how calm it was and overcast.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
141. hurigo
11:27 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
No jellies today. Water was very calm and warm. The wind picked up when those mama clouds popped up, but they dissipated quickly. Water is warm in September and the days are perfect.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
140. Zachary Labe
11:23 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
hurigo- Isn't water temperature the warmest off the east coast in September? Also the beaches are less crowded in September. Any jellies out there today? I heard that jelly fish were quite invasive off of Long Island, New York. So bad that hundreds of people were getting stung and no one was going into the water. Gosh I hate jelly fish.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
139. hurigo
11:21 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Thanks for putting things in perspective for me, Blizz. I was disappointed, but you're right. I can go when I want to go. It's just more convenient on the weekend. I think that tourist season will be ending soon. I think a lot of folks head back to school/university in August. My favorite time at the beach is September. But if there is tropical trouble it is also the worst month for me.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
138. Zachary Labe
11:17 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
hurigo- Well at least you can head to the beach in a short drive. Yea Ed could even become a hurricane before landfall. This thing is really developing fast. Remember Humberto last year? This looks sort of similar, except Humberto was closer to shore and stregthened faster.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
137. hurigo
11:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Edouard might be headed Shore's way?
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136. hurigo
11:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Thanks for the cloud lesson.
I think I saw some of those Mammatus clouds at the beach today. It was an odd beach day. Everything seemed a bit off.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
135. Zachary Labe
10:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
hurigo- Good evening!!! The layered clouds are the mammatus cloud. The white cloud is a cumulus-nimbus cloud. So you had a nice day on the beach?

dean2007- I just saw that. That is why I am updating my tropical discussion tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
134. dean2007
10:39 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
We already have TS Edouard. A TD in just about an hour.
133. hurigo
10:29 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Blizz, I love the sky photos. I thought of you today when I saw those unexpected troubled skies at the beach. I pointed and clicked, but nothing was captured. So that big thick white cloud is a mannu...something or other?

Hope the weather is calmer for PA today.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
132. Zachary Labe
10:13 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
This evening the tropical discussion and afternoon thoughts will be updated. Tomorrow I will update short term, long term, and severe weather outlook sections.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
131. Zachary Labe
9:20 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
dean2007- Cool! Sounds like you had an interesting day. 850s are pretty dry so severe development will not be too widespread.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
130. dean2007
9:14 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MAZ022-032145-
BARNSTABLE MA-
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

AT 458 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PROVINCETOWN...OR ABOUT 24
MILES NORTHEAST OF PLYMOUTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...PROVINCETOWN BY 520 PM EDT...TRURO BY
540 PM EDT...6 MILES NORTH OF WELLFLEET BY 550 PM EDT.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW! IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

This is the storm I took pictures of. Will have them on as soon as I can.
129. dean2007
9:11 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
It looks like its to dry here on Cape Cod, MA for the storms to turn severe. Maybe we'll get lucky and have a storm.
128. dean2007
9:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Hey Blizzard. Some hailstorms passed through Boston, MA and then north of Provincetown, MA. I got some great pictures of their anvils.
127. Zachary Labe
9:07 PM GMT on August 03, 2008
Beautiful day today in the gorgeous central Pennsylvania mountains. Look for a few updates this evening.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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