Recap of the recent major storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:35 PM GMT on July 22, 2008

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"Thoughts of Flood Threat of May 8-13"
Many areas across eastern Pennsylvania have been relatively dry lately for a few thunderstorms occuring though Sunday evening. Some of those storms produced rainfall totals near .5inch along with some wind damage in the region as the cold front passed through. Also on Monday a few rain showers and thunderstorms occured in the northern parts of Pennsylvania producing locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall has been especially plentiful over western and northern Pennsylvania where thunderstorms have been occuring almost everyday in the past 7 days during the heat wave as instibility and orographic lift produced pulse thunderstorms that produced very heavy rain. Now last night a MCV pulled of Ohio and created numerous thunderstorms again in western Pennsylvania. As these storms tracked east they organized into a large cluster producing areas of heavy rain. They got as far east as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania in which a few hundreths of an inch of rain was recorded. The ground is pretty moist from Harrisburg-Selinsgrove-Williamsport line on westward. Now a positively tilted trough will move through the Great Lakes. As it moves through in will deepen down to the Tennessee Valley and become negatively tilted as it becomes somewhat stalled over the eastern portions of the northeast and middle Atlantic states. For a more detailed setup see the section below. As training thunderstorm develop behind a MCS that moves through Tuesday night, heavy rain will break out. Widespread amounts of 1-2inches looks likely from central Pennsylvania on eastward. But locallized amounts could approach 12hr flash flood guidance (see below). The NWS is contemplating posting Flash Flood Watches and it looks likely that they will do so for eastern areas. Also severe weather may be a threat as we are in the right entrance quadrant of the jet stream containing winds to near 40knots in the mid levels. Helicity values are slightly high so even rotating storms cannot be ruled out. CAPE values get to near 2000 j/kg on Tuesday also. Wind damage looks to be the primary threat. Also for Wednesday more strong thunderstorms could form, but will be somewhat limited thanks to cloud debris from a Wednesday morning MCS over southeastern Pennsylvania. So quite a busy weather couple of days and it will be quite interesting to see how it all plays out. Stay tuned for more updates. I thought the best idea to handle this situation would be my flood threat formatted blog. Have a great day!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Storm Setup"
A cold front is drifting southeastward followed by a steep upper level trough. The trough will be deepening and dropping to as low as the Tennessee Valley, which is quite impressive for late July standards. This puts central and eastern Pennsylvania in the right front quadrant which helps to enhance thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm formation. Upper level winds are an astonishing 100knots, but more reasonable in the mid levels from only 35-4knots which is still adequate enough for severe weather formation. A MCS is rolling currently across western Pennsylvania and this complex will be the focus of much of the activity today. There is a slight risk of severe weather over the entire region today thanks to the latest SPC outlook. The MCS last night produced a plethura of severe weather across the Mississippi and Ohio Valley and now has weakened to just heavy rain and lightning. The low level jet continues to keep the MCS together with high moisture and cold cloud temperatures. Though as it moves into a more CIN environment this morning in eastern Pennsylvania it should weaken before strengthening again this afternoon and tap into the winds aloft producing some severe weather. CAPE values increase to near 2500 j/kg in extreme southern Pennsylvania. As the front slowly moves across the state a shortwave will rotate along it bringing nondiurnal instibility aiding in the formation of another strong MCS over northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. This is when helicity values increase making there a potential for an isolated rotating storm. This complex will produce heavy rain and move out of the region by Wednesday morning. As moisture increases on Wednesday and PWATs rise several deviatons to potentially over 2inches several rounds of thunderstorms will form from central Pennsylvania on eastward. Tropical moisture left over from Cristobal will move into the region along with Gulf of Mexico moisture riding up the nearly stationary cold front. Training thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding on Wednesday with some locallized areas possibly receiving an amount near 5inches when everything is all said and done. Severe weather is also a slight threat on Wednesday, but there should be widespread debris clouds to keep a hold on severe weather development. Damaging winds would be the primary threat. The SPC does put eastern portions in a slight risk. Overall the event is very convective type rains in nature. Some areas may see little rain, while others see a lot of rain making quite a difficult forecast.

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"12hr Estimated Precipitation"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast from Hydrometeorological Prediction Center"
...CONCERNING THE SLOWLY DIGGING GREAT LAKES UPPER TROF...
VERY DYNAMIC SITUATION EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM THE MID ATLC COAST
NWD INTO THE NE AS PIVOTING S/WV THRU THE OH VALLEY UNDER CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL ALLOW ENTIRE UPR TROF TO TAKE ON A STG
NEG TILT LATER THIS AFTN AS IT PUSHED EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLC
REGION. THIS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER
ASSOCD SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AS WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE S/WV AND
UPR RIDGE HOLD FIRM OFF THE EAST COAST SHORTENS. LOW LEVEL SLY
JET WILL RESPOND IN KIND..WITH INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POOLING OF 1.75 TO 2 INCH PLUS PWS.
THE COMBINATION OF STG UPR FORCING AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
MSTR..INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN IN A
RATHER WELL DEFINED SQLN LATER THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD. NAM PERHAPS LOOKS A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPR TROF..SO LEANED A BIT TOWARD A COMPROMISE
IN SPEED BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. OVERALL..SHOULD SEE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE ABOVE WITH SOME GENL 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS PER HR WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL FROM NRN VA NWD INTO ERN NY AND WRN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

"HPC Forecast 5-day total QPF map"


"Model Analysis"
As the models have been they are suffering from major convective feedbrack, the HPC is also mentions this. Rainfall is probably grossely overestimated in many areas, but still locallized areas may see those amounts. The GFS model is what my forecast appears similar to indicating the Tuesday morning MCS, the Tuesday night MCS, and the training thunderstorms on Wednesday. One issue I see is it might be a little far to west with the cutoff heavy rain line in central Pennsylvania. The NAM seems to be having even more convective feedback issues and sort of shows another scenerio in which there is no second MCS. Instead training thunderstorms develop over western Pennsylvania and move eastward across the state by Wednesday afternoon. Now one thing I am worriful is I have found that models greatly overestimate QPF sometimes with storms. But still they have been indicating this heavy rain threat for a long period of time. And already there forecasts and placements of MCS I think have been pretty good. Also with slow moving thunderstorms, PWATs near 2inches, and previous rainfall somewhere there will likely be flooding even if the forecasts do not come out quite according to plan. It seems the bullseye in Pennsylvania is in the northeastern part of the state in the Poconos.

"GFS model total precipitation"


"NAM model total precipitation"


"12hr Flash Flood Guidance"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"My Flood Forecasts"
Well were are already beginning to see training thunderstorms forming over northwestern Pennsylvania. That will be similar to what will happen Wednesday except it will be much more widespread. I think the highest potential for flooding will be in the poconos. The flood map below indicates potential for flooding threats. The map does not mean flooding will occur; it shows which areas have the highest potential for some sort of flooding. Also another higher risk area is in southwestern Pennsylvania and the southern Laural Highlands. That is because some areas have already seen 2inches of rain in the last 12 hours and that orographic lift from the tall mountains will enhance rain totals. Also below is my rainfall accumulation map in which all of Pennsylvania should see over .5inches. But with convective rains there will probably somewhere that does not see that much rain. Across southern Pennsylvania and up through eastern Pennsylvania is where widespread 1-2inches should occur with isolated amounts of 4inches may occur due to training thunderstorms. I will post verification maps for both maps after the storms is over. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day.

"My Forecast Total Rain Map"


"My Flood Risk Map"


"Conclusion on Flood Threat"
Well overall it looks mainly like a flash flood threat and not river flooding and not widespread flooding. Make sure you stay tuned to the radar screens and advisories issued by the NWS. This could be a serious threat for low-lying areas. Already this morning Erie, Pennsylvania is getting pounded with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Also there is some severe weather beginning to occur in New York State and the Delmarva region. Stay tuned also for the severe weather threat to see how it unfolds later today. Have a great day!

"Storm Recap"
Very interesting storm moved across the region from June 22-24. It all started with a series of complexes of thunderstorms that developed in the Ohio Valley and tracked eastward spelling severe weather in western Pennsylvania. This all occured several days leading up to the major storm. Even a 71mph wind gust was recorded in Pittsburgh. The MCSs would track eastward across central Pennsylvania and finally dissapate towards the Susquehanna River. I only received .03inches of rain from the MCS. Then as a deep upper level trough moved into the region, the low level jet was positioned in which the central to eastern Pennsylvania zone was in the right front quadrant. First early Wednesday morning severe thunderstorms stationed along a warm front in Virginia began to lift northward. As the storms spread across the Mason-Dixon line a very intense line of thunderstorm built up. Severe warnings went up from Fulton County all the way to Chester County as a line of thunderstorms developed and lifted northward. Intense and vivid lightning also occured with the storms, but most of the lightning was Cloud to Cloud lightning limiting the amount of loud thunder other than a steady low rumble. Winds also accompained the line with wind damage reported in York, Cumberland, and Juniata Counties. Rainfall was also heavy with the line and most places received from .4-.8inches of rain with the initial line. By later in the morning these storms moved up through the Poconos and gradually weakened. Then as the jet stream built in more low level moisture with rising PWATs near 2inches a light to moderate rain band formed in central Pennsylvania and moved from south to northnortheast at a very slow rate. Rainfall amounts in the band were generally around .3inches initially. As the band tracked eastward the trough became negatively tilted now pumping up moisture. A series of weather events took place that great resembled winter storms to cause heavy rain. Thunderstorms began to train, especially from the Middle Susquehanna Valley up through the Poconos. Rainfall totals were in excess of 5inches. Flash flooding occured. Meanwhile along the front in western Pennsylvania severe thunderstorms formed and slowly tracked eastward. Flash flooding occured with this line near Monroeville in Alleghany County and also wind damage was reported. Shear levels aloft were quite high near 40knots the closer to the trough. Helicity values were very high making tornadoes a threat. Kinematics were extremely higher than normal which made up for the weak thermodynamics and instibility. CAPE values were pretty meager in most areas, excluding Philadelphia which they were near 2000 j/kg CAPE. As the second band began to weaken in eastern Pennsylvania. The third line of severe storms took over and marched eastward, but then began to weaken. Severe pulse thunderstorms then began to form in extreme eastern Pennsylvania and resembled supercells causing damage in Lehigh and Bucks Counties with hail and high winds. Very heavy rain fell in these thunderstorms. By later in the evening as the final weather events came together a intense line of training thunderstorms formed from Maryland up through southeastern Pennsylvania in the Piedmont region. This line began to expand and dumped the last of the rains. Meanwhile back in northwestern Pennsylvania backlash rain and thunderstorms unexpectedly formed causing flash flooding in Warren and Mckean counties were mudslides were reported along with water rescues. The rains finally wrapped up by early Thursday morning with amounts in the Piedmont near 3inches, Lower Susquehanna Valley near 2inches, Middle Susquehanna Valley near 3inches, Central Pennsylvania near 1inch, northwestern and western Pennsylvania near 4inches isolated 6inches, and Poconos up to 6inches. Overall the impacts of the storm were pretty significant but flooding reports were pretty minimal. Most of the heaviest of rains occured in areas that had been recently dry. The storm very much resembled a winter storm with even backlash snows around the low pressure. Pretty amazing. Thursday afternoon also some instibility northwest thunderstorms formed causing some severe hail reports across the central Mountains near State College. And early this Friday morning lows dropped from 45degrees in Bradford to mid 50s elsewhere. What a storm!

Flood Verification Map...

My flood map fared ok during the event. The worst of the flooding was in two locations. One in the poconos which I highlighted in my outlook and the second area in the northwest mountains which I put a low risk of flooding. Still overall I am pretty pleased.

Rain Fall Verification Map...

My rainfall total map did very well throughout the event. Convective rains are hard to forecast, because thunderstorms can hit one area and completely miss another area. That is why I usually do not issue rain maps during thunderstorm outbreaks. But anyway overall the only change that I would have made is in the northwest mountains where I could have upped estimated rain fall totals. Overall I am very pleased as the worst of the rains where in the areas which I highlighted in my outlook.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 3
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 25

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 3.47inches
Yearly Precipitation- 27.85inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 10

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108. Zachary Labe
7:20 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I will try to get out the new blog this evening in a weekly format blog. As for Monday the GFS was alluding to a similar situation, but in my opinion that does not seem likely. Also latest GFS just shows a normal cold front. But the NAM shows a decent MCS moving through Monday, so I guess there is some chance of another heavy rain event. Not too confident at this point though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
107. TheRasberryPatch
6:52 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
looking forward to the next blog. i thought i heard that monday is setting up to be similar to the last storm.
maybe that was the town, Blizz. that is a massive amount of rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
106. Zachary Labe
5:21 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
crowe1- 2.5inches is still a pretty good total! Yes those thunderstorms yesterday missed me too, but I was expecting that. They produced quite a bit of hail yesterday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
105. crowe1
4:26 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
Blizz-I'll have to check when I get home but I think I got about 2.5". All the storms yesterday afternoon/evening slid by to the east of me:(
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 920
104. Zachary Labe
3:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I know in Providence County, Rhode Island that a spotter recorded 4.5inches of rain in 45minutes. My low this morning was 55degrees. That was 2degrees away from the record low of 53degrees. Also Bradford got to 45degrees last night, wow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
103. TheRasberryPatch
2:24 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
i heard i think it was Bridgeport, CN got something like 4" of rain in 45 mins yesterday. that is sick

had a low this morning of 56.6
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
102. Zachary Labe
12:19 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
Potential new blog coming today. Recap on the last storm will definitely be coming today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
101. Zachary Labe
12:21 AM GMT on July 25, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- That is ashame. Something is also eating the tops of my carrots. And I found a chewed up zucchini today. Other than that everything is doing well. Tomatoes are ripening. The spinach and lettuce is coming up now. Also already my scallion onion bulbs are popping up. That was quick. I only planted them a few days ago. Looks like a very cool evening ahead. Clear skies and light winds. Already 68degrees here. Hard to believe. Also dewpoints are in the low 50s. Will be interesting to see the morning low. There will probably also be some ground fog tomorrow morning. Beautiful day here today. Was at Mt. Gretna this evening and it was a gorgeous night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
100. TheRasberryPatch
12:20 AM GMT on July 25, 2008
i was correct. the rain didn't make it to my house. no worries. it was a beautiful day and evening.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
99. TheRasberryPatch
8:39 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
looks like there is some rain heading this way, but probably the mtns will squeeze out the moisture. the humidity seems a bit low for much to hit the surface.
i am getting discouraged with my garden now. parsley and carrots are getting their tops eaten. brocolli leaves were big and are now almost gone. lettuce is gone. think some deer leaned over the fence and ate those leaves. but i also think a shrew is eating my tomatoes. the only thing not getting touched are my cucumbers and peppers and onions. well and potatoes, too. and celery which i am surprised. oh well. it seems that every year the leafy veggies get eaten before i get to them. may have to not grow them next year.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
98. Zachary Labe
6:22 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSCEOLA MILLS...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF
TYRONE...AND MOVING EAST AT 24 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
97. Zachary Labe
6:10 PM GMT on July 24, 2008

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA/NY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241756Z - 242000Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TSTMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS
WITHIN REGIME OF DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING SBCINH.

UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW LOW ALOFT
CENTERED INVOF ROC...FCST TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WRN PA...NEARLY COLLOCATED
WITH 500 MB THERMAL TROUGH AND PRECEDED BY CORRIDOR OF MIDLEVEL
DPVA. ASSOCIATED COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AND BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FAVORABLE SFC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH PULSE AND
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES LIKELY. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS
IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCHING FROM NEAR BGM SWWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL PA NEAR I-180...AS OF 1745Z...MOVING SEWD 20-25 KT. MOST
FAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL/NERN PA AND CENTRAL NY TROUGH 21Z.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
96. Zachary Labe
6:00 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Early afternoon update/forecast...

Some thunderstorms are forming in northwestern Pennsylvania and moving southeastward through the central mountains. The thunderstorms are in response to some backlash precipitation on the back end of the low pressure in western New York State. Freezing levels are very low making hail a very potential threat. These thunderstorms make work there way farther east throughout the day. Cloudy intervals can be expected across the state along with breezy northwest winds. Temperatures will be in the 60s-70s across much of the state.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN CAMBRIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTH OF PATTON...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PUNXSUTAWNEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 129 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORCE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF ST. MARYS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
95. Zachary Labe
5:16 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Now it is partly cloudy here. Was pretty overcast this morning. I cannot rule out some afternoon thunderstorms. Those storms from the northwestern part of the state may try to work down in our region.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
94. TheRasberryPatch
4:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
not overcast here. partly cloudy and breezy.
yesterday's high was 75.7
this morning's low was 64.1
i need to revise my rain for the storm. 0.72"
mtd 2.59" not bad for July.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
93. Zachary Labe
3:06 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
dean2007- Check your blog out in regards to watch.

jthal57- Thanks for your report. I will be sure to use everyone's totals in my rainfall reports on the verification map. Yes it was a very interesting. I think across the nation it was the busiest weather day this summer.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
92. jthal57
3:03 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Blizzard-well, yesterday was an interesting weather day. Here are my obs:
Wednesday: 1.22"
Today (after midnight) .55"
MTD: 3.23"
made a nice recovery for July rainfall amounts.
It's amazing to see despite the healthy rainfall amounts, the ground really soaked it up. I was walking barefoot in my yard this am and it didn't feel wet at all!
Last night I went to NY to see Phils-Mets game. I'm shocked that the game got through with no rain at all. It rained a good part of the trip there, and it rained hard all the way back to Easton.
91. dean2007
3:02 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Thanks Blizzard. There is a very impressive cell to the south, southwest currently and appears to be moving north, northeast. Do you think there is any chance for a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued?
90. Zachary Labe
2:47 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
dean2007- As with yesterdays really not large severe weather outbreak. I do not think New England will see a large outbreak. Storms should be pretty linear, but some single cells could form in the dry slot, which would actually be in the eastern MA region. I see on the Cape it is pretty warm out already in the low 80s with sunny skies. As storms move from south to northnortheast they will cause heavy rain. Looking at the visible satellite there appears to be some good convection over the ocean just south of New England. That will probably affect you later today. Also that squall line in east CT and central MA may cause some severe weather today. The kinematics make up for poor instibility values today. Lower freezing levels make hail a slight threat with the strongest updrafts. Winds in the mid levels of around 40knots make strong winds a threat. A high helicity values also make an isolated tornado not to be ruled out. I saw there was a waterspout reported up there yesterday. I think today is a decent threat for severe weather for eastern MA standards. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
89. dean2007
2:33 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
...NERN U.S. THIS AFTN/EVE...
STRONG SLY LLJ ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL PA/MD
ACCELERATES NNEWD. CLOUDS AND ORIENTATION OF UPR SYSTEM WILL KEEP
LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC
HEATING WITH INCREASING UVV SHOULD FOSTER REINTENSIFICATION OF
EXISTING FRONTAL AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING FROM
OFF THE NJ CST NNE INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENG. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLD
STORMS ALSO MAY FORM A BIT LATER FARTHER E/NE ACROSS NEW ENG.

DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SEASONABLY STRONG FLOW /WITH
MEAN 850-700 MB WIND AROUND 50 KT/ WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
EXISTING LOW-LVL FORCING. THUS...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATIONAL MODE
SHOULD BE LINEAR. BUT SETUP WILL ALLOW EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS TO REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE THERMAL/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD FAST-MOVING BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH DMGG WIND... MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES.

Thoughts on Severe WEather threat here in Eastern MA, Blizzard?
88. Zachary Labe
2:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Well even though you did not get in on the heavier rain there is nothing wrong with .69inches. It was beautiful early this morning. But now northwest instibility low cumulus have built in making for overcast skies. Sort of chilly actually. Only got up to 73degrees yesterday with a low this morning in the low 60s. Way below average.

JDinWPA- Good morning!!! 1.03inches of rain here. Also overcast skies here. I am thinking there should be cloudy intervals throughout the day. This storm system was very ususual. This looked like a winter time storm. Look it even has backlash in northern Pennsylvania right now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
87. JDinWPA
1:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Good morning Bliz. Well, we ended up with 1.32" of rain since this whole thing started Saturday. 3.61" mtd. Although it's still overcast, they swear that it's over and any moment now the sun will break out. Hmmm, just looked out the window and I guess the moment isn't here yet.

How'd you make out?
86. TheRasberryPatch
11:40 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
what a beautiful morning. the sun is out the moon is out and the sky is blue and the tank is clean. the tank is clean?
i got 0.69" of rain for the storm. a nice little bit of rain to help the yard. thankfully, i am not in new jersey or new york. looks like they are getting pounded.
i guess back to normal summer weather for the rest of the week
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
85. JDinWPA
1:40 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
Good evening Bliz. So, officially a weak tornado touched down NW of Prospect. That's about five miles SW of my house. But I suppose that's as good as an area for something like that to happen; being close to the park, it's not very developed.

Something moved in just after 6 here. It's drizzling and cold, currently 62°. I suppose it's a band from the backside of the low that's causing so much havoc. It'll be nice to see it leave tomorrow!
84. TheRasberryPatch
1:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
wow CTG. that sounds very dangerous. as for rain i need some to catch up to you for the storm.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
83. Zachary Labe
1:16 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- From the reports I have been seeing it is CTG. This reminds me of early this morning sort of when you could see lightning well ahead of the line of storms. I still have doubts about this line though reaching us. You have a better chance than I do.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
82. TheRasberryPatch
1:12 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
wow that is a lot of lightning blizz. i wonder what kind CTG or is it just CTC. getting some lightning in my area, but probably not that close. i hope we get a bit more rain
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
81. Zachary Labe
12:58 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
hurigo- Good evening!!! This has probably been the busiest weather day of the summer across the nation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
80. Zachary Labe
12:57 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yea according to the BWI storms they are moving northward. If those storms move into our region we will get more than .5inches, lol. Those storms are intense. 1,000 lightning strikes are being recorded every 7minutes in the middle atlantic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
79. hurigo
12:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
Wow Blizz
Rough weather all the way from Maine to South Carolina. We had some rough stuff move through here earlier and more on the way. Have had to keep the computer off, but had to turn it on just a minute tocheck things out.

One more stop for me--and that is to say hi to shoreacres. I think that Dolly's given her a bit of weather too, of course not as bad as further down her coast.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
78. TheRasberryPatch
12:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
why does it look like the two lines are filling in and moving north. hope we get another 0.50" or so.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
77. Zachary Labe
12:17 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- The worst of the rains will bypass our region, as expected. By lookout southern Piedmont region in Montgomery, Bucks, Philadelphia, Delaware, and up through the Lehigh Valley. Then later tonight up through the poconos.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
76. TheRasberryPatch
12:13 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
wow looking at the radar those storms are blowing up down south and moving north. some impressive reds on the radar down around baltimore
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
75. Zachary Labe
12:05 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FOLCROFT...PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND DREXEL HILL BY
755 PM...
SOUTH PHILADELPHIA...YEADON...EAST LANSDOWNE AND MORRIS PARK BY 800
PM...
ROXBOROUGH AND GLOUCESTER CITY BY 805 PM...
KENSINGTON BY 810 PM...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
74. Zachary Labe
12:00 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
... Public information statement...

... Tornado touches down in Butler County...

About 845 PM on Tuesday evening, July 22, 2008 a tornado touched
down just northwest of Prospect in Butler County. NWS Doppler
radar, eye witness reports, and photographic evidence suggest the
tornado briefly touched down in a large wooded area close to
Moraine State Park. The evidence suggests that it was a rather weak
EF0 tornado and was probably only on the ground for brief period.
The most probable area of touchdown was inaccessible. Most likely
the brief tornado touchdown snapped or toppled several trees in
the heavily forested area.

This was the second confirmed tornado in the County Warning Area
of the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh. The first one this
year occurred on may 31st in Preston County, West Virginia.
The NWS Pittsburgh County Warning Area includes 15 counties in
western Pennsylvania, 11 in east-central, Ohio, 9 in northern West
Virginia, and Garrett County, Maryland. Over the past 10 years, we
have averaged about 4 to 5 tornadoes a year within this area. Last
year there were two confirmed tornadoes in the County Warning Area.
One on may 1st in Mercer County, Pennsylvania (ef0) and the second
in Pittsburgh (west end) on August 9th (ef0).
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
73. Zachary Labe
11:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
dean2007- Wind? I have not heard anything about wind gusts with the front. Maybe some strong wind gusts with thunderstorms. There could be some gusty winds with the front passage I guess due to mid levels containing 30-40knots mixing down to the surface.

TheRasberryPatch- Well this should all be out of the state by later in the day Thursday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
72. TheRasberryPatch
11:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
so Blizz, how much longer with the weather pattern? it looks like it keeps popping up out west and circling around to us
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
71. dean2007
10:30 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Storms and showers are flaring up here in Southeastern MA. There is a chance for severe storms tomorrow here on Cape Cod, MA. Blizzard, what do you think the highest wind gusts we will see here on Cape Cod, MA tomorrow? I heard 50 to 65mph esp in VT.
70. Zachary Labe
10:23 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yea so far this has been a nice light to moderate rain.

WeatherBobNut- Good afternoon!!! There sure has been quite some heavy rain up in northern Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
69. WeatherBobNut
9:51 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Hi Bliz, i recorded 1.72 inches since 4:00am today! Looks like a lul in the action but i'm watching the radar to the south, and if it re-organizes again here overnight with the initial front slowing down, we could see another 1-2 inches bringing the totals near 4 inches here in Old Forge, Pa just south of Scranton....

-Weather Bob
68. TheRasberryPatch
9:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
i didn't notice the tornado blizz from the day. i really don't recall anything terrible that day. we got 1.27" of rain that day with a wind gust of 22mph.
so far 0.50" of rain today. not much from early this morning until 4pm. but this is a good rain. nice and soft and good to soak in the ground, not run off.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
67. Zachary Labe
8:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- .98inches here. Some areas have seen near 4inches of rain in the poconos. Yes more rain is expected. Also there are some thunderstorms beginning to turn tornadic we all need to watch out for. Also check out comment #46.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EAST GREENVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 28 MPH.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
66. TheRasberryPatch
8:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
well no flooding threat for my area as of now. 0.44" of rain since midnight. rain has been very light for my area, but from the nws more is to come i guess.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
65. Zachary Labe
8:38 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
cchamp6- These will be long-lived supercells. A waterspout was just reported off of the MA coastline.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
64. cchamp6
8:36 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Tornado warning for northern new jersy, not to far from NYC. This one is heading in my general direction.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
63. Zachary Labe
8:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
cchamp6- Good afternoon!!! Yea things in the dry slot are now flaring up with severe thunderstorms. Watch out!

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KEMBLESVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
62. cchamp6
8:28 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Hey Blizz,

Things are rockin now. Taunton Ma. has a tornado warning. That radar is going nutz.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
61. Zachary Labe
8:04 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTH CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PAOLI...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
60. Zachary Labe
7:58 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STEWARTSTOWN...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RED LION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROGUE AND SUNNYBURN AROUND 405 PM EDT...
HOLTWOOD AROUND 410 PM EDT...
SHENKS FERRY AND SAFE HARBOR AROUND 415 PM EDT...
SMITHVILLE AND MILLERSVILLE AROUND 430 PM EDT...
WILLOW STREET AND LANCASTER AROUND 435 PM EDT...
STRASBURG AROUND 440 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 283 AND 287.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
59. Zachary Labe
7:38 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PENNSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
58. Zachary Labe
7:36 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUTLEDGEDALE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTH OF PECKS POND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations