Severe Weather Outlook...

By: Zachary Labe , 2:39 PM GMT on July 17, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 7/19)
Well it was another scorcher today with temperatures into the mid 90s. Looking across the entire country it is quite warm with a very typical summer appearance on the surface maps. There sure is some active weather across the country with the tropics really heating up. Today the third tropical storm of the season has been announced Tropical Storm Cristobal. And still out in the cold North Atlantic waters Bertha continues to transition to a cold core system (extratropical). I will not have any tropical update tonight. Tomorrow will be my next tropical update. Invest 94L continues to swirl in the Carribean giving the National Hurricane Center a tough time due to the frustration with the wave. Also coming off of Africa is a very, very impressive wave already with symmetrical details associated with it. The major global models all expect development to another tropical system. This sure has been one active July which probably lead to an active September period in which the tropics really heat up. Elsewhere the weather pattern is relatively zonal with a few weak cold fronts with some weak stationary frontal boundaries across the northeast. Some chances of afternoon thunderstorms especially from Sunday through Wednesday. Tropical moisture from Cristobal may add to some tropical downpoors in the eastern portions of the state as Cristobal rolls gently out to sea where all lost systems eventually end up. Wow, I looked at the calender and it sure is amazing today is already the 19th. Time sure does fly by. Before you know it winter will be approaching along with the holidays. You know what the means...Blizzard search. Yes I will be posting all throughout the winter trying to get out all of the details on any winter storms that head towards this direction. I was looking back at some of my blogs from last winter and reading the comments. Brought back alot of laughs as we all speculated on major winter storms weeks out only to be welcomed by an icy/snowy mix of 2inches or so. I all will join me on throwing opinions out for future winter storms. Looking ahead my winter forecast will be posted sometime in the early fall similar to my summer forecast format. Before I jump to excitement about next winter's possibilities and make some of you anxious; I must always remember to love the weather of the present and not always pondering onto future storm possibilities. Anyway have a great Saturday evening!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Short Term Forecast" (Updated 7/20) (Sunday through Monday)
Today a stalled boundary is located over the NY/PA border. A MCS is rolling eastward currently located over northeastern Ohio. A trough is moving into the northeast which will eventually push Cristobal out to sea. Also a departing high pressure over Virginia responsible for the warm mid-levels (CAP) that Pennsylvania delt with this weekend. So pretty active day on the weather maps. The MCS will move into very unstable air resulting in severe thunderstorms across much of Pennsylvania with damaging winds, frequent lightning, and large hail. See a detailed look at the threat in the sections below. Across northern Pennsylvania clouds from convective debris in New York State will keep a hold on temperatures keeping them in the 80s today. But in the south temperatures will shoot up into the mid 90s with heat indices near or over 100degrees. Also there will be thick haze resulting in visibilities of 4-6miles. And watch for poor air qualities in the metroplex areas as today is a high smog threat day. Dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to low 70s but some dry air mixing from aloft will cause dewpoints to slowly drop throughout the afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts will be of the convective sort so hard to pinpoint amounts. For Sunday night thunderstorms will move into eastern Pennsylvania with a few still severe gradually diminishing overnight. Lows will be muggy and in the upper 60s to low 70s. Fog may also be a problem overnight in areas that received rainfall. For Monday a shortwave over the Great Lakes will push a weak cold front through the area resulting in some showers and thunderstorms. Some severe storms cannot be ruled out especially in western portions of the state. Highs will be in the upper 80s across most areas.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Long Term Forecast" (Updated 7/20)
Looking ahead at this coming week it appears as if temperatures return to seasonal values as models indicate 850s getting back to where they should be for this time of year around 13-17C. For Monday night through Tuesday night there will be a high chance of showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front approaches the area along with some shortwaves riding up along the front. For Tuesday a low pressure system will also ride up along the front and the latest GFS indicates some very heavy convective rains over eastern Pennsylvania. I will have more on this threat in the upcoming days. After that Wednesday through Thursday looks spectacular with cooler temperatures and sunshine. For Friday a front may approach the region with a southwest flow drawing in warmer air and more moist air. Things then may clear out for the weekend. All in all looks like a normal summer week with chances of thunderstorms followed by clearings after frontal passages.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 7/17)
Forest fire season for Pennsylvania is typically in the fall time when all of the dry leaves are on the ground on the mountainsides. Fall winds and dry humidity levels help to fuel the fires. As for the next couple of days it appears as wildfires will not be too major of a threat anywhere across the state. There will be relatively dry conditions across the southern 2/3rds of the state until Sunday roles around, but winds will be pretty calm and humidity levels will be high. Though still if you are still traveling to state parks and build a campfire, remember to act responsibly towards your actions to prevent man-made forest fires. I remember a few years ago an accidental fire occured in Blue Mountain right behind my house and the whole mountain went up in flames. Fire trucks rushed by my house and later that night the fire became contained. But all of this was just caused by an unwatched campfire near the summit of the mountain. Across the United States forest fire levels remain highest over California and the northern Great plains in the Dakotas.

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/17)
Well were are entering in the heart of summer where plants need water almost every day to the oppressive heat. Very dry conditions will persist through Sunday morning other than an isolated thunderstorm in the northern parts of the state. Watering will be necessary almost every day as the heat will be quite intense with very few clouds in the sky to create any sort of cloud cover. This period of time though is good to get in any of the fall vegetable crops such as spinach, lettuce, scallions, radishes, etc. The other day I was helping my neighbor expand their vegetable garden by tripling their size and they planted some seeds with the crops listed above. I also plan on planting some seeds in preparation for a fall crop. As for current, my pea plants are probably getting their last harvest as the plant is starting to wilt. My zucchini plants are amazing and produce almost every morning. Cucumber plants are starting to get cucumbers on the vine. My pepper plants show no significant growth what-so-ever and I am very dissapointed. My watermelon plants I decided to dig out after very poor growth. The bean plants are producing like wild with already 3 large batches I have picked. The carrots are getting larger. My spinach seeds are beginning to come up in the raised dirt roads. The tomatoes are still green, but potentially after this heat wave could start to ripen. All of the blueberries were eaten by birds unfortunately. The herbs are doing great and are almost too large. Overall I am very pleased with my garden except for a few things. Anyway continue to water your plants this week and think about options for Fall vegetable gardening.

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 7/21)
Well my forecast yesterday seemed to pan out very well. There were many severe weather reports in western Pennsylvania including a measured wind gust of 71mph three miles east of the Pittsburgh downtown area. Also as the storms moved east they still produced isolated severe weather in eastern Pennsylvania. Today that short wave is now up in New England. A stationary boundary again is located near the PA/NY border and will help to spark thunderstorm. Isolated storms could be severe as winds aloft are around 30knots for the mid levels. Wind damage looks to be the main threat. Freezing levels are high once again near 15,000ft but that will be lowering as the cold poor aloft moves down from Canada over the region. A MCS complex over western Ohio will be fastly moving eastward throughout this afternoon. Moderate shear levels near 40knots will alow bow segments to form on the outflow boundaries of the dying MCS. As the storms move into unstable air where CAPEs near 2000 j/kg and LI indices near -4 thunderstorms will turn severe. The SPC has issued a 15% slight risk of severe weather from western Pennsylvania into central Pennsylvania. This seems about right. I do not again have time to issue my own severe weather map today. As the sharp trough approaches the region the lapse rates will increase helping to aide the development of numerous thunderstorms. I do expect some type of linear bowing segment to move into western Pennsylvania and traverse into the mountains. The setup is relatively similar to yesterday except there are some timing differences. The MCS should weaken across central Pennsylvania and may just move into western parts of the eastern third of Pennsylvania. An isolated severe wind gust cannot be ruled out during this time. PWATs today are relatively low compared to what they have been. Still they are a few deviations above normal so heavy rain is still a threat, but flash flooding with training thunderstorms should not be much of a problem. Also high chrystal growth will lead to intense lighting today. Overall wind damage is the primary threat today across southwestern and western Pennsylvania. Stay tuned to the NWS for more updates throughout the day.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (July)
Well back to my experimental monthly outlooks. July is now here and we are entering in to the heart of the Summer season. So this leaves many wondering well is it going to be hot and dry? But first let me recap the month of June statewide. Statewide the month averaged above normal in temperatures, but that is due to one reason... the intense heatwave that occured in the beginning of the month. Temperatures were in the upper 90s when they were supposed to be in the upper 70s. Low temperatures were also very mild and sometimes in the 70s. Excluding the heatwave the month was below normal temperature wise thanks to the deep eastern trough that hung over the region keep cool air and moist air over the region for much of the end of the month. Overall the summer has not been that hot and I have only received a measly five 90degree days, which is fine with me. Below now is my July outlook...

Temperature- Looking at temperatures the beginning of the month will be seasonable to slightly below average temperature wise as an eastern trough remains parked over the region. But by early mid month the Bermuda high should become parked in a favorable position for some hotter more seasonable air. Overall for the month I expect temperatures right around normal by the time the month is over. A heat wave or two may occur, but nothing overally significant. This keeps in tune also with my summer outlook of average to below average temperatures.

Precipitation- The month of July is never a favorable one for widespread rains, but more of spotty convective rains making it difficult to say a forecast for rainfall. I do not see though any really dry period. Thunderstorms should be common and basically be occuring in the same positions they have occured since late June with a favorable track along the mountain ranges. So this does not sound like much of a forecast, but some places may be wetter than normal, and other places may be drier than normal.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 7/20)
Well here is a quick update on what is going on in the tropics. Bertha has now weakened back to tropical storm status, but it still contains winds of 70mph sustained. Bertha is the longest lived tropical system ever recorded in July and still it is heading across the north Atlantic in some very cold waters. Though it is undergoing extratropical transition as it changes from a warm cored system to a cold cored system. Bertha eventually looks headed towards Iceland with some heavy rain and gusty winds. Other than that Bertha will be history. Closer to home we have Tropical Storm Cristobal which has winds sustained at 50mph and a pressure of 1007mb. Cristobal will continue to throw spiral rain bands across the Outerbanks interrupting many people's vacation plans. Rainfall amounts of 1-2inches may occur with up to 5inches in locallized areas. As Cristobal moves away from land and out to sea it will gradually strengthen, but should not pose any threat to land. Potentiall Cape Cod could be scraped with a rain shower or two from some of it's outerbands. The Canadian Maritimes near Nova Scotia should monitor this storm. Last we have newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly with winds of 40mph moving near the Yucatan of Mexico as a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for much of the Mexican coastline. Dolly will cross the Yucatan and move back into the Gulf under very warm waters. It is very possible for Dolly to turn into a hurricane once in the Gulf. As for where next it appears the north Mexican coastline northward to the Texan Coastline needs to be alert for potential landfall. The details will be sorted out as time progresses. Also one thing to add is a very impressive tropical wave is moving off the African coastline and which global models then show some development with this system also. All I have to say is what a busy July it has been in the Atlantic.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"


"Regional Forecasts" (Updated 7/21) (Monday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Partly cloudy skies with hazy visibilities near 5-8miles. Warm and humid. Slight chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High 88-91.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Partly cloudy skies. Slight chance of a thunderstorm with increasing chances towards evening. An isolated storm could be strong to severe capable of gusty winds. Hot and humid. High 88-91.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Mostly sunny skies with thick afternoon haze (5-8mile vis.). Poor air qualities. Hot and humid. Heat indices near 100. High 90-93.

4. Central- (State College)-
Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny skies with a slight increase in clouds later in the day. A few thunderstorms possible towards evening. A few storms may be severe capable of gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Humid and warm. High 87-90.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Morning light valley fog (2-3mile vis.). Partly cloudy skies, especially in the afternoon. Chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe capable of gusty winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Warm. High 85-88.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Morning dense valley fog (.5-1.5mile vis.). Partly sunny skies with increasing clouds. Numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon. Storms may be severe capable of highly damaging winds, large hail, and extreme lightning. Rainfall amounts locally to 1inch. Humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Hot. High 88-91.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Morning dense valley fog (.25-1mile vis.). Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Late day thunderstorms are possible. Some storms may be severe capable of damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. Humid with dewpoints in the low 70s falling into the mid 60s. Warm. High 86-88.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 2
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 23

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 2.44inches
Yearly Precipitation- 26.82inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 10

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103. TheRasberryPatch
1:09 PM GMT on July 22, 2008
well, Blizz 5" is way way too much rain. just an inch would be fine or 1.5". thank you.
the thing that sucks is my golf league is this evening. i want to get out and play.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
102. Zachary Labe
12:14 PM GMT on July 22, 2008
MDFirefighter- Good morning!!! Yes rain and lots of it coming. Chance of severe weather too.

TheRasberryPatch- Well I got .03inches of rain last night. I think you will get your wish answered as we have the potential for extremely heavy rain. Some area in eastern Pennsylvania could see up to locallized 5inches of rain. Training thunderstorms will be a big threat. I am in the midst of writing a new blog. Look for it to come out this morning with more details.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
101. TheRasberryPatch
12:04 PM GMT on July 22, 2008
wow, what a beautiful morning. a nice breeze and warm temps, but not hot.
we could use that rain out in the western part of the state.
Blizz, why does it seem like the western part of the state gets rain and storms more than south central and eastern part of the state? I understand the mountains can squash the moisture, but it seems like it isn't just the mountains. another thing it seems like we don't get as many thunderstorms in late evening or early morning like in the past. i remember being a little kid in the top bunk and when a thunderstorm came by in the summer they were frightening.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
100. MDFirefighter
11:26 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
Looks like we could see some rain today
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
99. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
07/21/2008 0810 PM

Avella, Washington County. (Pennsylvania)

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.

Numerous trees down in Independence TWP.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
98. Zachary Labe
12:58 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 851 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF ACOSTA TO 28
MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT DAVIS TO 48 MILES WEST OF MOUNT DAVIS...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 44 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
97. Zachary Labe
12:51 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN WETZEL COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
MONONGALIA COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 840 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES WEST OF RYERSON STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
96. Zachary Labe
12:38 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 831 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CLAYSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
95. Zachary Labe
12:35 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
Monday evening near term update...

My blog above is slight outdated and I will have a new blog tomorrow. But I wanted to provide a Monday night forecast. A few thunderstorms have formed in western Pennsylvania a few hours ago. Now the cells are organizing into clusters with an isolated storm severe capable of strong winds. 18z models show these storms conglomerating and forming a very weak MCS tonight traversing across Pennsylvania. Though I am not sure on that as eastern Pennsylvania has some CIN around and very marginal CAPEs. But none the less it will be something to watch for some late night thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be very muggy in the upper 60s to low 70s. Patchy fog will form and be locally dense in areas that receive rain. Winds should be relatively calm, excluding thunderstorm gusts. Overall forecast is for slight chance of thunderstorm. With an isolated storm being severe. Partly cloudy skies. Anyways have a great evening!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
94. Zachary Labe
12:21 AM GMT on July 22, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 810 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CARNEGIE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
93. Zachary Labe
11:03 PM GMT on July 21, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OH / WV PANHANDLE / WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212233Z - 212330Z

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR. A WW IS UNLIKELY BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING EWD
ACROSS NERN OH. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY
AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOCALIZED
AREA OF MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /NEAR 1MB PER HR/ ACROSS SWRN
PA AND THE WV PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SWLY FROM AN EARLIER WLY
COMPONENT ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /A0A 40 KTS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. DESPITE FAVORABLE
FORCING/SHEAR...DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING /LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY LESSEN OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. IF STORMS CAN
MERGE OR DEVELOP INTO A ESEWD MOVING CLUSTER...AN ORGANIZED/ISOLATED
THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS MAY RESULT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
92. hurigo
9:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Thanks Blizz,
I'll try to tune in for your update. In the meantime I'm going to sit under the umbrella and look for a breeze. Even though it is hot, I have a need to be outside.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
91. Zachary Labe
9:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Well I decided instead of updating everything again, I am just going to post a new blog tomorrow morning. So no updates tonight, but be sure to check out the new weekly formatted blog tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
90. Zachary Labe
9:08 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
hurigo- Well I am glad everything went well. And I am glad to hear my forecast panned out. I have some updating to do to the blog tonight. It should be finished by 9pm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
89. hurigo
8:57 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Hello Blizz,
Thanks for your help Cristobol Eve. You're forecast was right on target.

Very hot here and humid with dew points mid-70s. I hear it's hot up there too. Will read your blog later, once I get a chance to catch up with everything now that I'm back in town.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
88. Zachary Labe
6:26 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
sullivanweather- Just saw that. You beat me too it, lol. More severe weather reports. Wind report...

1738 UNK PHELPS ONTARIO NY 4296 7706 TREE DOWN (BUF)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
87. sullivanweather
6:21 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Quoting sullivanweather:
Still waiting for a mesoscale discussion for Finger Lakes region.

Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued and that area is under 5% for wind/hail.





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN-CENTRAL NY / EXTREME NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211809Z - 211915Z

TSTM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN-CENTRAL NY AND PARTS OF NRN PA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN NY AND STORMS MOVING SEWD OVER LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO.
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SERN
ONTARIO MAY AID IN INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS.

STRONG INSOLATION IS OCCURRING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST
AND DOWNWIND OF ONGOING CONVECTION. 12Z BUF RAOB MODIFIED FOR 17Z
SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NY SUGGESTS A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ HAS DEVELOPED. BELT OF STRONG FLOW
ALOFT /30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS WITH TIME RESULTING IN MAINLY AN ISOLATED DMGG
WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
86. Zachary Labe
6:00 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
wfreeck- Then I guess it is a wait and see. I see the recent mesoscale analysis shows 2000 SBCAPE just a little westnorthwest of Ann Arbor. PWATs though are not too impressive and only around 1.3-1.4inches. Also it appears the highest shear values are still south into Indiana and Ohio with nearly 50knots in Indiana and Illinois. No wonder there were some many wind reports out of that bow echo.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
85. wfreeck
5:58 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
I just got a crazk of thunder :-)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 124 Comments: 3535
84. wfreeck
5:54 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
I've had sunshine all morning, those cirrus were very thin. So the instability's already in place.

It looks to be a outflow boudary.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 124 Comments: 3535
83. Zachary Labe
5:51 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
sullivanweather- Hail report...

100 PALMYRA WAYNE NY
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
82. sullivanweather
5:49 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Still waiting for a mesoscale discussion for Finger Lakes region.

Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued and that area is under 5% for wind/hail.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
81. Zachary Labe
5:46 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
wfreeck- I guess that is better than nothing. I did see the latest SPC outlook highlighted the slight risk a little farther north to include Detroit. But it will be hard to recover from the convective debris clouds overspreading your region.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
80. wfreeck
5:42 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
It's about to rain or storm here.

A rain shower is showing up on radar (has a yellow core) and the clouds are darkening (not really billowing, but definitely convective dark).
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 124 Comments: 3535
79. Zachary Labe
5:32 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! Only .1, wow I got .52inches last night. O well there are plenty of other chances for rain this week. I love potatoes, I just wish I had enough room. Dug out my pea plants today they had died. I think I am going to plant some lettuce in its place. Tomatoes here are green mostly with some yellow. I did pick one roma tomato that was pretty red yesterday. Deer can be a major problem. Though they cannot get in my fenced in yard. Here the groundhog just ate a little bit of the tops of the carrots so I had to put a fence around them today.

sullivanweather- I saw that they were beginning to form. Here in southern Pennsylvania there are come instibility cumulus hanging pretty low. They look very typical from a northwest flow with a cold pool aloft coming in. Maybe I will weasle out a thunderstorm nearby today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
78. sullivanweather
5:15 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Storms are beginning to move into northern PA.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
77. TheRasberryPatch
4:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
hello Blizz
i got 0.10" of rain last evening and a wind gust of 27mph.

just went out and pulled up 6 potato plants. i have half a bushel of potatoes. i pulled up a couple red gold which are real nice size. two corolla again with nice size fruit. and four fingerlings.
i am not sure if i should pull all of them up this week or just pick them as i go. not sure how long they will last in the ground. probably a good month i hope.
so many cucumbers. this weekend will be spent making B&B.
Deer are getting to my lettuce and brocolli. they use their long neck to reach over the fence to eat he leaves. we were checking the garden thursday evening at dusk when 3 deer come up and got to within 10 feet of us. i don't think they saw us. so i figure they must be eating the leaves. hopefully, they won't jump over the fence and destroy my garden.
NO red tomatoes yet except cherries. and they have stopped turning red.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
76. sullivanweather
3:18 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
'Pre' activity blog under my other handle
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
75. Zachary Labe
2:47 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
I will have a regional forecast update and severe weather outlook update sometime today. For now here is an update from the SPC..


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL OH AND WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211428Z - 211530Z

IF BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH NRN IN CAN BE MAINTAINED DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...WW IS LIKELY BY 16Z FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL OH AND
POSSIBLY WRN PA.

AT 1415Z...A BOW ECHO WITH WIND DAMAGE WAS MOVING EWD AT 55 KT
THROUGH NRN IN. DESPITE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...MUCAPES UP TO 2000
J/KG WERE SUSTAINING THIS FEATURE. AS THIS WELL ORGANIZED BOW SHIFTS
EWD...WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
INSTABILITY AS SURFACE BASE PARCELS FEED THIS SYSTEM. THE
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DRY AIR
BETWEEN 300-500MB ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN SYSTEM EWD...WITH A
CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
74. Zachary Labe
2:06 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
sullivanweather- Alright sounds good. I have to go. Nice chatting with you this morning and thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
73. sullivanweather
2:03 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Here's my forecast for Wednesday and Thursday:

"Upper trough continues to dig and tilt negative on Wednesday. Offshore, high pressure over the western Atlantic will give little ground. Increasing gradient between these two synoptic features will bring a 40kt southerly low-level jet into eastern New York and southern New England. As several waves of low pressure ride up the stalled trough along the coast several periods of heavy rainfall appear likely at this time. Medium-range models all depict at least one inch of rain with several members showing as much as 5 inches of rain before all is set and done. The trough will make very little eastward progress but will finally begin to pick up its heels by Thursday afternoon pushing most of its associated moisture offshore the Jersey shore and up into northern New England. Western sections will likely remain dry, but a passing shower or two may temporarily wet the ground. Temperatures will likely be slightly below normal across western section, near-normal over central sections under the precipitation and slightly above normal across eastern sections given the moist tropical airmass expected over this area."

Looks like the heaviest rain will be sandwiched between the Poconos and the Connecticut River Valley. Kind of reminds me of October 2005 with the position of the upper ridge offshore and the upper low to our west. although this pattern seems a lot more progressive than that one which basically stood in place for almost two weeks and dropped 1-2' of rain.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
72. Zachary Labe
1:57 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
sullivanweather- I wanted to also get your thoughts on the potential heavy rain threat. As the cold front seems to slow over the eastern northeast, the GFS really brings up the moisture from the gulf and shows some heavy rain along the front. Training thunderstorms might be a threat. Anything to add on that?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
71. sullivanweather
1:54 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
LOL

Yup, everything is in the blog...

I'm also a little concerned about 'pre' activity associated with Cristobal affecting southeastern New england on up the Maine coast today and tonight.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
70. Zachary Labe
1:45 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
jthal57- Sometimes I always wonder about some reports that go in too. At least you received some of that much-needed rain.

sullivanweather- Alright, I will keep an eye up there. Any thoughts on Dolly? I guess I should read your discussion.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
69. sullivanweather
1:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
LOL

Yup! I got a decent storm which dropped ((drumroll)) 0.52" of rain! Same as you! lol

Keep an eye out along the northern border of the state today. That mid-level disturbance dropping out of Ontario might fire a few cells up there. On composite radar and on SPC mesoanalysis charts there's a weak convergence boundary dropping south through south-central New York which may serve as a trigger for afternoon convection.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
68. jthal57
1:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Blizzard-yes there were. The one report is only about 5 or so miles from my house. I had some decent wind, but the report was a 67 mph gust. I'm not doubting it, as there could be many factors why, but I saw nothing close to that here.
67. Zachary Labe
1:35 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
sullivanweather- Good morning!!! Interesting storm here last evening. .52inches of rain with a few large tree limbs down in the region. Looks like western and central Pennsylvania got hit pretty hard. I am not expecting anything today as we are in sort of a CAPPED region between two systems. Western Pennsylvania though should get hit today. Anything up your way last night?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
66. sullivanweather
1:30 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Good morning, Blizz!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
65. Zachary Labe
1:26 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
JDinWPA- Another slight chance of severe weather out your way again today.

jthal57- I believe that in the storm reports there were 2 reports of wind damage for Northampton County.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. jthal57
1:34 AM GMT on July 21, 2008
Blizzard-We did get .24", some lightning and wind. NWS put our county under a warning about 10 min. after storm started. 5 minutes after warning, storm was over.
63. JDinWPA
1:23 AM GMT on July 21, 2008
Hey Bliz. We got .38" today for a mtd of 2.67". Luckily the storms were worse south. Stuebenville was reporting 60 mph winds. We had some pretty good gusts but nothing compared to that!

I finally gave up and started dragging out the watering equipment today. Got most of it set up. So I'm expecting more rain tomorrow.
62. Zachary Labe
11:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
JDinWPA- Looked like some wicked storms out that way. How much rain did you get?

jthal57- Good evening!!! .52inches of rain here with a normal thunderstorm. I see there are a few warnings out to your south as the storms really exploded again. Hope you get something good. Pretty typical for this year for some reason.

lawntonlookers- Good evening! Thanks for stopping in. Had a good thunderstorm here with quite a bit of rain. How did you fare?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
61. JDinWPA
10:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
Hi jthal. A few things got blown over; mainly some plants I was letting go to seed for next year. But one of my pepper containers have listing plants now. They were getting rather top heavy and I should have had them tied already. Oh well, definitely have to tie them now!

Groundhogs are my worst pest. Since we're in the open, I've only had deer in the garden once since we've lived here. Although the resident hogs are partial my fault. They love apples and that's were they've moved in. Under the sheds in the orchard.
60. lawntonlookers
10:51 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
Blizz Somthing comeing in
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
59. jthal57
9:02 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
JD-Hopefully the wind didn't do too much damage to your garden...I usually have to tie things up after a good wind storm. Unfortunately, I have a neighbor who has lots of things laying around that the groundhogs love to hide and burrow in, making it a haven for them. I can only deal with the ones that come in my yard. It's a full time job! lol
58. JDinWPA
6:42 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
Hi jthal. Yeah, we all know what method that is. I just asked that it be done when I'm not home and I never be told. What else can you do? Fences don't keep them out, they're destructive and they can get huge! I enjoy wildlife but there comes a time when you just have to draw the line.

There's some storms moving through now. Well, they're almost through. Some lightning, some downpours, but there are some really wicked winds gusts. If these hold together, watch out for the wind.
57. Zachary Labe
6:24 PM GMT on July 20, 2008


Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
56. Zachary Labe
6:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
INDIANA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF LERNERVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARIANNA...MOVING EAST AT 42 MPH.


1810 71 3 E PITTSBURGH ALLEGHENY PA 4044 7992 SPOTTER REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH AT SCHENLEY HEIGHTS. (PBZ)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
55. Zachary Labe
5:19 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
***I have recently updated the regional forecasts, severe weather outlook, and tropical update. I will shortly be finished with the short and long term sections.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LISBON TO CADIZ...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
54. Zachary Labe
4:24 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
jthal57- Groundhogs can cause major problems.




Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
53. jthal57
1:16 PM GMT on July 20, 2008
Quoting JDinWPA:
But a full size groundhog is just too big for a hawk. I've got a trap and release contraption which helps a bit. But there is only one really effective method which I can't mention here because huri reads this blog. Good luck!

JD- I have groundhog problems, too. I have tried several ways to get rid of them, or even just to stay out of my yard, all with no luck. I have read many places the only way to truly get rid of groundhog problem, is to get rid of the groundhog. I had to recently persuade one from ever coming back to my yard again.

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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