Wednesday Regional Forecasts...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:31 AM GMT on July 07, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 7/7)
Well good Monday afternoon!!! It sure is muggy outside today as light easterly winds pull in deep atlantic moisture. The edge of the incredibly high PWATs is located near the western edge of the Alleghany Plateau and that is sparking widespread thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are developing along that sort of natural boundary. Elsewhere across the state orographic lift is giving way to compact areas of pulse thunderstorms. Due to low high-level winds the storms will be very slow moving and capable of heavy rain. Flash flooding is likely a major threat. Already today several areas have produced flashflooding. Looking at the radar across the state showers and thunderstorms are surely widespread making it sort of looking like a Florida afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are highly diurnal based and should begin to dissapate as dusk approaches. For tomorrow the highest instibility will exit the region along with the very weak shortwave so tomorrow should be mostly dry except for some showers and thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania ahead of the next cold front. An isolated storm could be severe in western Pennsylvania as shear levels begin to increase slightly along the cold front. Also in case you have missed some of my comments I am heading to Mt. Washington, NH this coming Thursday and Friday. Mt. Washington is also known as the capital of the world's worst weather. The world record for wind gusts was recorded there with a gust of 231mph in the month of April. Now the mountain is covered in fog for 60% of the year, but still the forecast for Thursday and Friday shows partly sunny skies behind the exiting cold front Wednesday night. High pressure moves in. Now to the northeast of the region will be a strengthening low pressure heading up through the Canadian Maritimes which may cause some higher wind gusts on the summit. I will be sure to take lots of pictures and be back to write a blog about my experience at the summit. For now though I will enjoy the warmth as up at the summit temperatures are in the 40s and 50s. There is also some areas of snow cover on some of the nearby ravines. Have a great Monday and expect a updated tropical discussion this evening!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Short Term Forecast" (Updated 7/6) (Monday through Tuesday night)
The stationary front located around the Mason-Dixon line will lift northward on the day Monday. High PWATs nearing 2inches will move in from the south across the state of Pennsylvania. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s combined with temperatures nearing the mid to upper 80s will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms on the days Monday and Tuesday. The front will be in a dissapating stage leading to not a very strong triggering mechanism. Orographic enhancement will lead also to the development of pulse thunderstorms. Shear levels aloft are very light less than 20knots and CAPE values not overally high around 1500 j/kg will lead to just typical thunderstorms. An isolated storm may become severe with wet microbursts being the primary threat. Due to weak winds aloft showers and thunderstorms will be very slow moving causing the potential for flash flooding. Training thunderstorms will also lead to an enhanced threat. Beware of rapidly changing conditions on the days Monday and Tuesday with Monday being the more widespread day for convective development. Surface winds will be relatively light from the southwest. Morning fog will also be a problem for Monday and Tuesday morning with visibilities potentially as low as 1/2mile in areas that had clearing skies after a recent rainfall. Fog should not be widespread though. Skies will be variable with more clouds than sunshine. As the afternoon progresses haze will also be a problem and so will be unhealthy air qualities. For Tuesday night showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing and skies will become clearer. Late night fog could be a problem. Lows Tuesday night will be very mild in the mid to upper 60s. For Wednesday a front will be approaching the region.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Long Term Forecast" (Updated 7/6)
Looking ahead at the weather pattern for mid to late week it appears to be a relatively zonal jet streamal flow. A weak trough will be over the region for Wednesday night through Friday night with high pressure parked over the region. The trough should not be too significant, and just keep temperatures at seasonal levels. High pressure then departs along with the trough for Saturday. Still though which needs monitoring is Bertha in this time period as there is a very slight chance it could impact our weather, but at this point it appears to be located far enough out to sea to not cause any problems here along the east coast. Also come next weekend will be the return of warmer temperatures as heights rise along with a southwest flow. This will also most likely mean the increase of surface moisture bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Overall the long term pattern is very typical of summer like weather.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 7/6)
Fire hazards are quite low through the upcoming week as the weather across Pennsylvania remains humid with many chances of showers and thunderstorms. Morning fog turning to haze in the afternoon will also be widespread. Winds remain mostly calm coming from the southwest in the southern portions of the region and the northwest in the far north. All variables are against the development of wildfires for the next seven days in Pennsylvania. Across the USA the highest threat areas of wildfires remain over the west in California.

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/6)
It really has been quite a great year for gardening here in Pennsylvania with plenty of rain and limited extreme hot weather. Here is a little update on my garden first. Yesterday I noticed my first cucumbers growing, the plant had been transplanted earlier in the year so it took it a while to grow. My herbs are doing great including the parsley and basil plants which are growing like wild each day. My string beans are also doing great with plenty of new bean growth each day. I have already picked about 30 beans with many more to pick in a few days. My pea plant in the older vegetable garden began to die so I picked the last of the peas and then ripped the plant out. The next day I planted spinach seeds in little dirt rows where the peas had been before. My other pea plant is doing amazing with it seems tons of new flower blooms on the plant. I have already picked 4 meals full of snow peas. My zucchini plants are getting larger and larger and pretty much taking over. The zucchini are getting larger and larger each day, and I picked my first one on July 4. One thing though unusual the zucchinis though is that some of them are rotting. My carrots are very healthy and getting larger and larger each day. So far I have had no rabit problems even without a fense. My watermelon plants are not doing so well do to the lack of summer heat we have had this year. I am not expecting them really to do much this year. My pepper plants are slowly getting larger with one pepper already evident. To note I did plant my pepper plants very late in the season. My roma tomato plants are also getting larger also and hopefully by mid month they will be ready for picking. And last my sad blueberry bushes. They are very healthy, but the birds get every berry as soon as it ripens. Looking ahead for this week in gardening it appears as there will be spotty thunderstorms early in the week. By late week though things get dry. It appears to be a pretty typical summer like week with average temperatures around in the mid to upper 80s.

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 7/8)
A few chances of isolated severe weather coming for this Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The stationary boundary over the mason-dixon line has now completely dissapated. Meanwhile a cold front is moving across Ohio right now ahead of the next weak trough. A bow echo of thunderstorms has formed in western Ohio and moving east at a relatively fast pace. Ahead of the bow echo is disorganized thunderstorms that are occasionally severe and they are located in eastern Ohio. Now in Pennsylvania in the eastern portions of the state are a few weak pulse thunderstorms producing some periods of heavy rain. Yesterday's storm reports in Lancaster County reported nearly 2-7inches of rain along with some flash flooding. For the rest of this afternoon a few thunderstorms will move into western Pennsylvania. Some of them could be severe. A MCS may form also overnight and track over northern Pennsylvania leaving in its wake some clouds for Wednesday. Still though with slightly higher shear levels ahead of the next cold front some isolated severe weather could occur. The SPC outlooks eastern Pennsylvania in a slight risk. I think this is a little to much of a risk zone. A 5% "see text" risk sounds a little better in my opinion. Wind damage and heavy rain are the primary threats Wednesday afternoon. Convection should be pretty widespread Wednesday. Looking ahead quiet weather persits through the early part of the weekend, until late in the weekend when another strong trough approaches the region. Sunday will need to be monitored for maybe some severe weather ahead of the next cold front. Again overall nothing in terms of organized, widespread severe weather looks likely in the next five days.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (July)
Well back to my experimental monthly outlooks. July is now here and we are entering in to the heart of the Summer season. So this leaves many wondering well is it going to be hot and dry? But first let me recap the month of June statewide. Statewide the month averaged above normal in temperatures, but that is due to one reason... the intense heatwave that occured in the beginning of the month. Temperatures were in the upper 90s when they were supposed to be in the upper 70s. Low temperatures were also very mild and sometimes in the 70s. Excluding the heatwave the month was below normal temperature wise thanks to the deep eastern trough that hung over the region keep cool air and moist air over the region for much of the end of the month. Overall the summer has not been that hot and I have only received a measly five 90degree days, which is fine with me. Below now is my July outlook...

Temperature- Looking at temperatures the beginning of the month will be seasonable to slightly below average temperature wise as an eastern trough remains parked over the region. But by early mid month the Bermuda high should become parked in a favorable position for some hotter more seasonable air. Overall for the month I expect temperatures right around normal by the time the month is over. A heat wave or two may occur, but nothing overally significant. This keeps in tune also with my summer outlook of average to below average temperatures.

Precipitation- The month of July is never a favorable one for widespread rains, but more of spotty convective rains making it difficult to say a forecast for rainfall. I do not see though any really dry period. Thunderstorms should be common and basically be occuring in the same positions they have occured since late June with a favorable track along the mountain ranges. So this does not sound like much of a forecast, but some places may be wetter than normal, and other places may be drier than normal.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 7/8)
Well after Bertha's rapid intensification to a category 3 hurricane with winds of near 120mph sustained and a pressure as low as 948mb making it the 6th strongest July hurricane on record; Bertha is now weakening and shearing apart fast. Bertha is now a category 2 hurricane with winds of 105mph sustained. From satellite appearance it is very visible that Bertha is being sheared apart and quickly losing symmetrical appearance. High winds aloft and slightly cooler water temperatures are responsible for the relatively quick weakening. This will continue slightly and probably put Bertha as a weak, minimal hurricane by tomorrow. Looking at steering currents it appears as if Bertha will now turn more quickly to the north that originally expected now tracking to the east of Bermuda. This is a very typical storm track for July for Cape Verde storms. The ridge of the western Atlantic was not strong enough, therefore a western trough was a replacement which is steering the storm to the north. But the western trough will be relatively week and eventually dissapate. The central Atlantic therefore will have little steering currents allowing Bertha to meander across the sea. Therefore those with interests should still monitor the track of Bertha as slight wobbles could potentially put the island in harms way. In the distant future it appears the US will have no impacts from the storm, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually see a weakened extropical Bertha impact the region. Sea surface temperatures are still very cool in the north Atlantic. Elsewhere across the Atlantic the disturbance southeast of Texas in the Gulf of Mexico has weakened and fissled out now just producing heavy rain over Mexico and southern Texas. And last another wave is coming off of Africa which shows signs of some organization and areas of convection. This system may need monitored, though the waters that it will be moving into will be cooler thanks to the recent passing of Bertha. No update is expected again until tomorrow.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"


"Regional Forecasts" (Updated 7/8) (Wednesday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Patchy morning fog with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms on the increase throughout the day. Some storms may be severe capable of heavy rain, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. Rainfall around .25inches, locally more. High 82-84

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Areas of morning valley fog (1-3mile vis.). Increasing clouds with numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe capable of heavy rain and damaging winds. Flash flooding is a potential threat. Rain amounts from .1inch to locally 1inch. High 82-85.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Partly cloudy becoming cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe capable of heavy rain, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. Flash flooding is a slight threat. Muggy with afternoon haze. High 84-86.

4. Central- (State College)-
Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Some storms may produce heavy rain. Rainfall between .25-.5inches. High 79-81.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Mostly cloudy to cloudy throughout the entire day. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms may be capable of heavy rain. Minor areas of flooding is a possibility. Dense fog on some ridge tops due to low cloud ceilings. An isolated severe storm could occur in the far eastern sections. Damaging winds is a slight threat. Rainfall between .4-.8inches.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Thick, low clouds with numerous showers. An embedded thunderstorm is also possible. Storms may produce heavy rain. Rainfall around 1inch. High 77-80.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Cloudy throughout the day with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Storms are highly capable of very heavy rain. Flash flooding is a slight threat. Rainfall around 1inch. Low clouds could also cause dense fog on some of the surrounding ridgetops. High 77-79.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 2
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 21

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 1.00inches
Yearly Precipitation- 25.38inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 5

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73. Zachary Labe
12:24 AM GMT on July 10, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Wow, I wish I had enough room for a potato patch. Yours looks great. Also thanks for your gardening help!

sullivanweather- Thanks for the recipe. I had stir fry with my snow peas I picked just about a week ago. Thanks also for your gardening answers!

hurigo- I though you might like it. It is pretty interesting.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
72. hurigo
9:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Blizz, thanks for the link to the WU maps. I'm playing with them and it's nice to have a new tool that helps identify the smoke from the GDS fires.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
71. sullivanweather
9:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Blizz,

Most onions have 90+ day seasons.

A few varieties of yellow onion you may be able to get away with, but and reds, whites or vidalia is out of the question.

You can start green onion from seed and get some of those by fall. They're shorter, about 70 days. The only problem is that it takes their seeds about 10 days to come up so they may have to battle weeds.

Scallions are great in cooking, though. Especially asian dishes. As long as you have sesame oil, you're good.

Scallions, celery, broccoli, snow peas in a stir fry with cut up chicken peices over rice...mmmmmm

Or, if you want to get really crazy...

Take a 1cm slice of onion and dice it, then
add 1/4 cup of bean sprouts and fry them on high heat in 2 tablespoons of sesame oil.

Have a few snow peas set aside to go to pea. Take them out of their pods and add them to the pan.

In another pan on high heat, add a teaspoon of sesame oil and break one egg into the pan. With a spatula break the yolk and mix in with whites until cooked. Add to other pan.

Then, add 1 cup of steamed/cooked rice to the pan and mix in with a wooden spoon.

Add 1 tablespoon of soy sauce.

Now you have yourself a nice fried rice

Have another cup of white rice to serve the chicken and vegetables on.

So you get chicken and veggies on white rice with fried rice on the side. Homemade chinese food...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
70. TheRasberryPatch
9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
my onions are almost ready to be harvested. just waiting for them to flower and then have the stems die.
the carrots - pick them anytime you want. some say the small ones are sweeter. pick as you need.
celery is well worth it. it was nice to finally find a farm that sold the plants. maybe next year start them in your house by seed. never had any luck throwing the seeds out in the garden. and you just pick a stalk or two as needed. just pick an outer stalk.

potatoes look like they are about to start dying. can't wait to harvest them. i used the hose connection of sevin to get rid of the beetles. the powder didn't seem to work very well this year.
when i harvest them i will definitely take pictures of the harvest. i cannot even imagine how many i will have to eat.


this is what it looked like back about 3 weeks ago and they have grown more with more blossoms. most of the blossoms have died off now. its 5 rows wide by 16 feet long
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
69. Zachary Labe
8:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting sullivanweather:
Blizz,

You mean plant onions now to be harvested by October?

Yep.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
68. sullivanweather
8:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Blizz,

Most often I usually get carrots anywhere between 4-6" in length.

I'm trying a different method this year, though.

I dug out a trench about 8 inches deep from ground level. I then filled it with this mixture:

40% sifted native soil.
30% leaf compost
20% Alpaca manure (about 5% of which is earthworm castings)
7-8% river sand
2-3% wood ashes

I'll let you know how it works out.

*edit - It's also a raised hill, by about 4 inches about soil level, so in all 12" of soil.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
67. sullivanweather
8:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Blizz,

You mean plant onions now to be harvested by October?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
66. Zachary Labe
8:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- So the celery was worth it in terms of crop production? Also I am going to plant some buttercrunch seeds shortly in a part shade location. Also another question how do I know when to pull the carrots? The one I pulled was about 3.5-4inches in length right now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
65. TheRasberryPatch
8:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
wow a second crop of spinach, very nice. carrot smelled of basil? hmmmm. mine are right next to the basil, i wonder what mine will taste like. one thing is the carrots from the garden are stronger in taste then what you get from the store.
i forgot, i pulled about 6 stalks of celery off the plants th other day. wow, so crunchy and tasty.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
64. Zachary Labe
8:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
sullivanweather- Sounds like you have been busy. Storms developing to my east, just missed me. But I really do not need the rain anyway. Can I still plant spring onion bulbs for the fall?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
63. sullivanweather
8:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
I just got in from pulling a bunch of weeds.

Still got lots of work to do.

I'm taking out my broccoli plants. There's still some more side shoots to come up from them, but nothing to be worried about.

I also have about 4 dozen dill spikes that are about 5 feet tall. They all need to come out and be hung in a brown paper bag.

Then there's some lettuce to harvest and replant and beets to harvest.

Once I get into the broccoli section that needs to be turned and prepared for whatever I decide to put there next. THEN I'll finally be able to get int bewteen the chard to weed that out.

Oh, yeah...

There's a storm bearig down too. Nothing impressive but I'm sure big enough to chase me in.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
62. Zachary Labe
8:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I pulled a carrot today to see how big it was getting and the carrot is pretty large. One thing odd though is it had a basil type of smell. Keep in mind it is not anywhere near any basil plant. I too have lots of green tomatoes. My spinach seeds are now coming up too.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
61. TheRasberryPatch
8:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
just been picking the pickling cucumbers. they are so plentiful and so tasty. you really need to try them next year and probably won't go back to regular cucumbers.
picked some buttercrunch for a salad yesterday.
have picked some zuchini, but they aren't coming in like past years.
plenty of green tomatoes and the carrots are getting taller.
the bulbs on the spanish onions look to be very big.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
60. Zachary Labe
8:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yea I agree, winters are much rougher in other parts of the country. Well no rain here. For once you got the rain and I did not. I picked a huge batch of string green beens today, a few sugar snap peas, along with 2 zucchini.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
59. TheRasberryPatch
8:01 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
well, one thing Blizz - the winters here aren't nearly as bad as the midwest or upper plains or the rockies. very temperate here for the most part. yes, we have our cold snaps, but they seldom hang around for longer than a week. and if we get big snowstorms they usually are only 1 or 2 a year if we get them. big to me is over 10".

anyway, got a nice downpour that brought my daily rainfall for today to 0.27". every little bit counts for my garden and yard.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
58. Zachary Labe
7:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
seflagamma- Good afternoon!!! Winter is quite different up here then it is down there in Florida, lol. Takes a while getting used to I imagine.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
57. seflagamma
4:53 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Hi Bliz,

Thanks for stopping by my blog yesterday and today! So you are from Harrisburg, PA, my daughter, son-in-law, and baby grandson live outside Philly at West Chester, PA. I know they had horrid weather all winter up there. Everyday from March - May it was alway raining and miserable! LOL of course she is from here in S Florida so she is not use to that cold weather!

Hope you have a great day!

Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
56. Zachary Labe
2:00 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
No rain here either last night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
55. jthal57
11:14 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
well Blizzard, no precip here overnight.
54. JDinWPA
1:35 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Hi Bliz. Well, the storms rapidly died upon hitting the ohio/pa border. At 6 pm, they had been full of lightning, by 8pm I saw one strike off in the distance. It's lightly raining at the moment. Oh well.

Love the pictures. It looks like home!
53. hurigo
1:12 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
There have been times when I've headed north and inland due to an approaching tropical and been caught in flooding. Do not want to ever go through that again.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
52. hurigo
1:10 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Thanks Blizz,
Glad to hear some confirmation about that "trend" (possibly) re earlier models. I think I'll venture north Thursday morning. Hopefully avoiding the storms that seem to arrive more ferociously with afternoon heating.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
51. Zachary Labe
12:57 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
hurigo- You know it is funny you mention that about the earlier models. I found that a lot of times with winter storm tracks this past winter. Earlier models more accurate that medium range models and then newest models back to earlier models track. For Thursday the cold front should pull through with sunshine and dry conditions across the northeast and middle atlantic. The GFS model delays the frontal passage. But at this time I think it is suffering some intiation problems.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
50. hurigo
12:55 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Uh Oh, forgive me I should have read your blog before I sent in that question. I'll check it now as I see you recently updated.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
49. hurigo
12:53 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
What good news that was to see. I thought it was very interesting that the later models for Bertha II's path were very similar to the earliest of models. Usually, we have relied on the early models being wrong. Whenever we are in the cone early on, there's a sense of relief that it will drastically change later.

What are your projections for Thursday for traveling north? I'm hoping that there will be less chance of stormy weather.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
48. Zachary Labe
12:46 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting 46. hurigo:
Blizz, near the coast on the NC/VA border.

Ok. Thanks. Looks like Bertha is really headed out to sea and weakening fast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
47. hurigo
12:45 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Blizz, near the coast on the NC/VA border.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
46. Zachary Labe
12:35 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting 43. jthal57:
Blizzard-Looking at the radar and seeing all of that moisture out west. I know I've mentioned this before, but it would surprising if nothing made it east. But the way rains this summer have been dissipating on its way east lately...

Situations like this in which a line of thunderstorms forms in western Pennsylvania; sometimes it is difficult for them to cross the mountain without weakening. But with conditions favorable to the east with high moisture in the atmosphere and some left over instibility they may just make it. The latest GFS does show them moving across the state. At this point it is hard for me to say if they will make it, the mountains are very unpredictable as you know.

Quoting 42. JDinWPA:
Hey Bliz. There's a promising looking storm line headding in my direction. Haven't heard of any damage associated with it, but there's supposed to be a lot of lightning. Let you know how it turns out.

Alright keep me informed. I am curious to how much lightning there is with this complex. Keep me informed.

Quoting 44. hurigo:
Hi Blizz,
We've had a round of stormy weather here. Reports of some damage from straight line winds. In our little sliver of geography, was not too bad. I heard some wind and heavy rain, pulled the blinds and closed the curtains, but nothing much to fear happened. I do appreciate the alert you sent as I do see there is another line of weather that may move in. The line of storms earlier moved v e r y s l o w l y, perhaps the next will do the same.

North Carolina has been hit hard lately by severe weather the last couple of days. Where is your location in NC anyway? Also storms here in PA have been moving slow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
45. hurigo
12:30 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Hi Blizz,
We've had a round of stormy weather here. Reports of some damage from straight line winds. In our little sliver of geography, was not too bad. I heard some wind and heavy rain, pulled the blinds and closed the curtains, but nothing much to fear happened. I do appreciate the alert you sent as I do see there is another line of weather that may move in. The line of storms earlier moved v e r y s l o w l y, perhaps the next will do the same.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
44. jthal57
12:28 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Blizzard-Looking at the radar and seeing all of that moisture out west. I know I've mentioned this before, but it would surprising if nothing made it east. But the way rains this summer have been dissipating on its way east lately...
43. JDinWPA
10:35 PM GMT on July 08, 2008
Hey Bliz. There's a promising looking storm line headding in my direction. Haven't heard of any damage associated with it, but there's supposed to be a lot of lightning. Let you know how it turns out.
42. Zachary Labe
6:59 PM GMT on July 08, 2008
A beautiful sunset in front of a thunderstorm to my south, on July 7. The anvil cloud is visible on the first picture...

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
41. Zachary Labe
6:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2008
Since the end of June my region has really been hit by many thunderstorms. The favored storm track this season is right along Blue Mountain Range. I am over 5inches above normal precipitation wise for the year with 6.24inches occuring in June and already over 1inch for July. Here are some pictures from the beginning of June through yesterday of some of the thunderstorms to move through my area...

On June 27, a slow moving thunderstorm dumped 1.82inches of rain in less than one hour, causing some minor flooding problems in my neigborhood...




Late in the evening of June 29 a severe thunderstorm developed west of my area northeast of Harrisburg. The core of the warned severe thunderstorm went right over my region. Trees were reported down. I measured a 32mph gust and a max rain rate of 12.52inches per hour...




On July 3 a strong thunderstorm moved across my area with a large tree limb down in the neighbor's large maple tree...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
40. MDFirefighter
5:36 PM GMT on July 08, 2008
Quoting 38. Blizzard92:
Quoting 36. MDFirefighter:
Looks like tomorrow could be interesting. What are your thoughts Blizz?

Well I do not think Wednesday will be too much of a severe weather day as severe weather indices are just not there. Shear values are low along with meagar instibility values. Timing of the front is also not too favorable for widespread severe weather. In the morning a MCS will form and move north of the region, but still cloud cover in the morning will prevent some instibility from forming until afternoon when the sun breaks out. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with only a few becoming severe I would expect at this point. Heavy rain is the primary threat as PWATs near 2inches.


Thanks Blizz!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
39. Zachary Labe
2:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2008
Quoting 36. MDFirefighter:
Looks like tomorrow could be interesting. What are your thoughts Blizz?

Well I do not think Wednesday will be too much of a severe weather day as severe weather indices are just not there. Shear values are low along with meagar instibility values. Timing of the front is also not too favorable for widespread severe weather. In the morning a MCS will form and move north of the region, but still cloud cover in the morning will prevent some instibility from forming until afternoon when the sun breaks out. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with only a few becoming severe I would expect at this point. Heavy rain is the primary threat as PWATs near 2inches.
Quoting 37. TheRasberryPatch:
well, i got 0.014" for the day. kind of glad that the cells missed my house. some of those areas east of me got hit hard with rain all day. and i am talking just a few miles.

Yes it is good those cells missed you as they produced a lot of flash flooding including up to near 7inches of rain. Wow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
38. TheRasberryPatch
12:00 PM GMT on July 08, 2008
well, i got 0.014" for the day. kind of glad that the cells missed my house. some of those areas east of me got hit hard with rain all day. and i am talking just a few miles.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
37. MDFirefighter
10:18 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Looks like tomorrow could be interesting. What are your thoughts Blizz?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
36. TheRasberryPatch
1:56 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
didn't get much rain. the rain stayed south and east. still getting some, but all day just south and east of me has been getting lit up with the rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
35. TheRasberryPatch
1:13 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
starting to get a bit of rain. it is staying in one place and i am on the northern edge. thunder and lightning is intense. i know i want the rain, but hope that once it arrives it moves along.
i was at a driving range at 730pm on 743 just north of the turnpike and it was amazing watching the storm to the south of the driving range. saw some pretty nice lightning.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
34. Zachary Labe
1:06 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
hurigo- So true. It is amazing of how quickly new modern technology has developed in the meteorological field in the last decade. Also one thing which I always and forever thank, is the weather channel, they have really opened the eyes of many people that weather truely is fascinating and dangerous all at the same time. The Weather Channel has really sparked alot of interest in the weather among people.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
33. hurigo
12:36 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Thanks for your update Blizz, especially on Bertha II. It is so true that path forecasts are not as problematic as intensity forecasts. It's that darn X factor again. Someday someone, building on all the work of those before, will get a better handle on that and we will look back and go ah ha!
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
32. Zachary Labe
12:34 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY...


* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

* AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER
COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ELIZABETHTOWN...MANHEIM AND MOUNT JOY.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
31. cchamp6
12:31 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Just for the record Mt. Washington is an amazing place here in the northeast. Mt. McKinley is off the charts in another world compared to Washington. McKinley is 23,100' plus or minus. I believe Washington is 6,300'.

I have been fortunate enought to go up Mt. Washington several times. I also lived in Alaska for 4 years and saw Mt. McKinley several times and was able to fly around on an absolutely crystal clear day. Make no mistake they are two completly different places.

Either way you are gonna love Mt. Washington.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
30. Zachary Labe
11:26 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 716 PM EDT RADAR INDICATED WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF THREE TO
FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH FLOODED ROADS
IN THE HAZEN AREA.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
29. Zachary Labe
11:24 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
Quoting 26. jthal57:
Blizzard-not sure. You may either need an advanced reservation, be a member, or both. Here is a website:
Link

picked my first beans and cucumber today!

Thanks for the link. I will have to research further into that. My cucumbers remain small, but I have been picking beans for a week now.
Quoting 27. TheRasberryPatch:
no rain here. it is all around me. just when it looks like the radar is moving my way it doesn't make it.
mt washington sounds a lot like mt mckinley in denali. i was lucky enough to hit a clear day in between 2 weeks of clouds.

You got lucky up there on Mt. Mckinley, wow. I would love to go to Alaska. That is unfortunate about the rain. It seems Campbeltown has a sheild over it this year against rain. Watch out though as training thunderstorms will form to your south and potentially move north slowly.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
28. TheRasberryPatch
11:15 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
no rain here. it is all around me. just when it looks like the radar is moving my way it doesn't make it.
mt washington sounds a lot like mt mckinley in denali. i was lucky enough to hit a clear day in between 2 weeks of clouds.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
27. jthal57
11:14 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
Blizzard-not sure. You may either need an advanced reservation, be a member, or both. Here is a website:
Link

picked my first beans and cucumber today!
26. Zachary Labe
10:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
.37inches of rain here is the total for the day so far. Nice little rainfall. Just enough to make me not have to water, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
25. Zachary Labe
10:38 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
jthal57- Can the public get in the observatory? I will be sure to let every know how my trip went.

hurigo- Yep, wow, I will have an update on it shortly at around 8pm hopefully.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
24. hurigo
9:19 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
Hey Blizz, don't know if you've heard but Bertha is now a Cat 3. Amazingly quick change from a TS to a major.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
23. jthal57
8:52 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
Blizzard-That's exciting that you are going to Mt.Washington. Will you be going to the observatory? The last couple of years I've been contemplating being a member, but just haven't done it yet. It will be neat to hear of your trip.

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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