June 29 Severe Weather...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2008

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather Outbreak of June 29"
Well the much hyped severe weather day is upon us here in Pennsylvania. The cold front is quite visible on the surface map and even satellite. With the front in the vicinity combined with high shear, high humidity, and moderate instibility thunderstorms should erupt with some of the becoming severe. The most likely axis of severe weather is from east central Pennsylvania on eastward to the PA/NJ border. Yesterday the front was in Ohio and sparked a large bow echo complex of thunderstorms that raced across Pennsylvania. After debating yesterday afternoon I decided to place a moderate risk of western Pennsylvania with a slight risk elswhere. My forecast turned out spot on with the moderate risk reaching my moderate risk definition and even in my slight risk some storm reports and warnings occured. As the bow echo marched eastward the cold front began to slow and as this happened the bow echo weakened rapidly. A few lone cells and rain showers were out ahead of the line and a few of them became severe, for example in Northumberland County near Sunbury. It was interesting to watch the development of the line of thunderstorms yesterday as it was relativel unsuall to get a bow echo marching across the western mountains of Pennsylvania. Today we could have a similar event except there could potentially be more supercells. What is questioning myself today is how much instibility will there be available later today, and will the storms fire ahead and along the front or along the convergence zone in far eastern Pennsylvania. Anyways I will try to get the details out in the sections below. Here is my verification map for yesterday...


"Current Weather Setup"
Interesting setup headed our way, but overall it is pretty typical of a normal summertime cold frontal passage accompanied with severe weather. Currently the cold front is over western Pennsylvania and a prefrontal trough is over eastern Pennsylvania. These two areas will be the focal points for severe weather. Looking at the latest satellite it looks as if the entire state of Pennsylvania excluding a few areas in socked in clouds. But as has been the case for the last three days the clouds will begin to thin and dissapate. Already this is occuring over the southcentral mountains in Fulton, Huntingdon, and Centre Counties. The radar is currently showing what appears to be rain showers moving east in parts of eastcentral Pennsylvania, but nothing is reaching the ground and it is only thick clouds. I still am in question though for if the clouds will inhibit the best chances of severe weather. For temperatures they will get up into at least the low 80s in many areas and potentially reaching the upper 80s depending on how much sun is received in some areas. Dewpoints will rise a little throughout the day after starting in the mid 60s they should rise to near 70 later in the day. Today is a very unsuall day as upper levels of the atmosphere almost look tropical today as PWATs are around 1.7inches in the southeastern parts of Pennsylvania. Shear levels are high today ahead of the front with in the low levels around 30knots, mid levels around 50 knots, and upper levels around 65knots. At times in the stronger thunderstorm updrafts these winds will be pulled down to the surface. Damaging winds do appear to be the primary threat today. But isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as EHI values are near 2.5 in eastern Pennsylvania along with some minimal helicity values. The SWEAT index for today reaches a max of 250 in extreme northeastern Pennsylvania. CAPE values for today are minimal, but adequate enough for severe weather, and they are around a max of 2000 j/kg. The LI index around -4. Sharp lapse rates especially in northern Pennsylvania may be enough to overcome the high freezing levels so hail could be a slight threat today. The question that needs answered for today is how much instibility will be available by 2pm.

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...EASTERN US...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
OH INTO NY/PA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPRESS ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE A NARROW ZONE OF
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
FIRST INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO WV/KY/TN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN PA/SOUTHERN NY AS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER VA
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT FROM MD NORTHWARD...WHERE HAIL IS MORE
LIKELY IN STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE AND LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
STATES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS...AS DETAILS OF CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


"Model Analysis"
Below I have posted some of the morning model runs being the SREF, NAM, and GFS. The NMM model still is letting me have access to it do to its replacement for monitoring tropical weather in the east Pacific. CAPE values are definitely not as highly progged as they were a few days ago. I imagine that this is due part to the fact of the models picking up on the debris clouds across the region in the morning hours. It is odd this year in how every severe weather chance there always seems to be cloud cover inhibiting some convection development. In years before this is not always the case and make forecasting much easier. The NAM model appears most extreme with instibility indices today and the GFS the least. The SREF offers a compromise of the two models. What I am impressed is with progged EHI values by the GFS model. The atlantic coastal plain near Philadelphia has been seeing sun all morning with temperatures already nearing 80degrees. Combined with a trigger with the prefrontal trough over eastern Pennsylvania I can see how supercells form capable of rotation and weak, isolated tornadoes. Be alert for this threat later today. In any case I plan on posting the latest mesoanalysis soundings when they come in. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day.

"3z SREF Model Forecast Max Cape Index"

(Sunday afternoon)

"12z NAM Model Forecast SWEAT, Helicity, and CAPE indices"

(Sunday afternoon)

"0z GFS Model Forecast EHI Values"

(Sunday afternoon)

"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
Well it was a tough decision when making my severe weather map. I decided I would rather play it safe than be sorry so I issued a moderate risk of severe weather for southern Pennsylvania on up through extreme eastern Pennsylvania. I believe in these areas they are under the highest threat to due to higher instibility and the higher chance of rotation with any supercells that do form. I believe two areas of convective development can be expected today. One area along the prefrontal trough axis in eastern Pennsylvania where supercellular development is possible. And the other location along the surface cold front in western Pennsylvania where a squall line with damaging winds could form. Some clearing is moving into western Pennsylvania which may just make it enough instibility for the convection to form. Today easily may not reach moderate risk qualifications on my severe weather map, but the potential is there and that is why I issued it. Today we have all of the threats with wind, hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain. As was the case yesterday extreme, frequent lightning should not be too much of a threat. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day, and just a note... I do not intend to change my severe map any time today. Keep your NOAA weather radio on and handy today and stay tuned for the latest updates. Awareness is how we save lives.

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"

(Sunday)

"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
Well I was planning a special blog for my 50th blog, but instead I missed it. Currently this blog is my 53rd. I must say thankyou to all of those that continue to comment throughout the week as I thoroughly enjoy conversing with those that have a similar interest to the weather, photography, nature, and gardening like I do. I have learned so much in the past 7 months and everyday I learn something new. This year has been quite a year so far and I am hoping for more great blogs to come. Again thankyou for all of the great comments I get each day which all make this blog possible. I will continue to write Pennsylvania weather blogs as far as I can see into the future. As usuall if any questions arise feel free to ask them or if my blog seems a little strangely worded feel free to point it out. Looking ahead to the future I am planning some interesting blogs, but I would love if anyone had any suggestions to some blog topics that cover broader topics such as nature, gardening, of course the weather, and photography. I am looking potentially next week to have a photography blog in which I post my favorite weather pictures I have taken and mention a little about them. I hope others post their favorite weather pictures also. Thanks for a great 50 blogs with 50+ more to come. Have a wonderful day!

"Storm Reports"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 3
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 1
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 16

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 5.45inches
Yearly Precipitation- 23.52inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 5

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46. JDinWPA
1:14 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Good morning Bliz. Stats for June -

total precip - 4.81"
highest high - 88°
lowest high - 58°
highest low - 70°
lowest low - 43°

I know other places close by had higher amounts of rain, Pittsburgh came in at around 6", but almost 5" is more than enough. The lowest high occurred on the 18th with the lowest low happening early on the 19th. We had hail one day but no other damaging severe weather.
45. Zachary Labe
12:32 AM GMT on July 01, 2008
Another rough thunderstorm moving here at my home right now! Winds are really gusting near 30mph with extremely heavy rain along with some lightning/thunder. A SPS was issued for this storm. Last night I was under a warning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
44. Zachary Labe
11:55 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
sullivanweather- O gosh I miss the storm of the year here. I was about 10miles south of my home when the storm hit. The core of the storm though went right over my house with damage reported in my nearby town. 32mph gust was recorded on my weather station. And an unbelievable 12.52inch rain rate per hour was reached at one point during the storm. Wow! I did get some pictures of the shelf cloud though. But I missed the main part of the storm. .69inches of rain was my total in a 15minute period. I appreciate you looking out for my region though!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
43. cchamp6
12:34 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
What gives, they extended the watch until 3 am?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
42. jthal57
12:04 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Blizzard-back from my trip to NY and back, ran into a thunderstorm on trip back with heavy rain right through Staten Island and into S.Plainfield, NJ. Many cars were pulled over, and there was flooding on rt. 287. I saw that Newark Int'l Airport had 1.3" rain in about an hour and a half span. See that we haven't received anything yet in eastern PA
41. sullivanweather
11:47 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Blizz,

Where ya at, man?

You're about to get nailed!
I hope you have your camera ready!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
40. cchamp6
11:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I just saw that. It just doesnt seem like there have been many warnings for such a wide spread area that is under the watch. They were discussing some shear in the Hudson valley.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
39. sullivanweather
11:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Champ,

The latest mesoscale discussion talks about the storms persisting after dusk. So there's a pretty good chance that the storms may continue through PA/NY right into New England.

There's a nice bow echo heading for my house right now. I'm at my girlfriends parents house about 15 miles south so I won't know what'll be happening there, unfortunately.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
38. cchamp6
11:37 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
For such a large area under a watch, there doesnt seem to many warnings.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
37. cchamp6
11:33 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
What do you think for my area Sully?
We had a thundershower earlier that seems to have stabilized us. Temp. is 77 with a dewpoint of 69 degrees.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
36. sullivanweather
11:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Blizz,

Looks like that cluster SE of Altoona is heading right for your area.

I didn't want to say anything too early thinking I might jinx you, or something.

But, I'll have you know. I've had extensive talks with the severe weather gods and they told me that they're going to pay you a visit. LMAO
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
35. dean2007
8:51 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
A new Severe thunderstorm watch was posted by the NWS (Storm Prediction Center). No storms for me, I guess for those of us on the Cape, we are going back to the regular old weather of Cape Cod, MA, everything weakens before hitting us routine again. No storms today!
34. Zachary Labe
8:15 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
sullivanweather- I am having doubts about anything hitting me though.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC039-049-292100-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0175.080629T2011Z-080629T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ALBION...OR ABOUT 16 MILES EAST OF JEFFERSON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
EDINBORO AND WATERFORD

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4171 8051 4174 8053 4191 8052 4218 7988
4195 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 244DEG 33KT 4183 8045
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
33. sullivanweather
8:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
New severe thunderstorm watch pretty much encompasses the remainder of New York and Pennsylvania, including the northern half of New Jersey.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
32. Zachary Labe
8:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
dean2007- Well that is ashame. The one cell looked like it was coming ashore about 20minutes ago. The entire state of Pennsylvania is now under a severe thunderstorm watch.



Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
31. sullivanweather
8:12 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Those radars in the western halves of New York and Pennsylvania are perculating.

LOTS of severe thunderstorm warnings out.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
30. dean2007
7:58 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Storms appear to be missing us. This really stinks a lot.
29. Zachary Labe
7:47 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC093-097-109-292030-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0086.080629T1944Z-080629T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTOUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREMONT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELINSGROVE...AND MOVING EAST AT
26 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PORT TREVERTON AROUND 355 PM EDT...
SELINSGROVE AROUND 400 PM EDT...
RESLER AND HUMMELS WHARF AROUND 405 PM EDT...
REBUCK AND SUNBURY AROUND 410 PM EDT...
TREVORTON AROUND 420 PM EDT...
FARNSWORTH AND STONINGTON AROUND 425 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE
522...STATE ROAD 61.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4069 7661 4062 7694 4065 7696 4064 7701
4068 7704 4068 7707 4077 7712 4096 7653
4088 7653 4087 7651 4083 7651 4083 7645
4076 7642
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 251DEG 22KT 4072 7696
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
28. Zachary Labe
7:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES WEST OF BROCKPORT TO ROCKTON TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CURWENSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BROCKPORT AROUND 345 PM EDT...
BRANDY CAMP AND S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK AROUND 350 PM EDT...
PARKER DAM STATE PARK AROUND 355 PM EDT...
CURWENSVILLE AND HYDE AROUND 400 PM EDT...
FORCE AROUND 405 PM EDT...
WOODLAND AROUND 410 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 158...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
AND 65.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4138 7786 4115 7763 4078 7785 4074 7882
4108 7881 4111 7879 4113 7882 4120 7878
4121 7872 4122 7872 4123 7875 4127 7875
4134 7889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 267DEG 31KT 4127 7883 4112 7866
4082 7883
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
27. Zachary Labe
7:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC027-035-037-081-093-097-113-119-292045-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0084.080629T1926Z-080629T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONTOUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REBERSBURG...OR 11 MILES
SOUTH OF LOCK HAVEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAURELTON CENTER AROUND 345 PM EDT...
CARROLL AND R.B. WINTER STATE PARK AROUND 350 PM EDT...
SAND BRIDGE STATE PARK AROUND 355 PM EDT...
COLLOMSVILLE AROUND 400 PM EDT...
SPRUCE RUN RESERVOIR AND FOREST HILL AROUND 405 PM EDT...
ELIMSPORT AND DUBOISTOWN AROUND 410 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 170 AND 234...I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 28.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4139 7658 4102 7645 4086 7750 4103 7759
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 248DEG 29KT 4098 7743
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
26. Zachary Labe
7:06 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
dean2007- Tough to say. The storms do appear to have strengthened a little, but they are not quite severe. So far from reports from thunderstorms it seems like heavy rain is the primary threat. Lightning has not been too extreme today.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC005-065-292000-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0100.080629T1901Z-080629T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF SUMMERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BROOKVILLE AND REYNOLDSVILLE

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4119 7871 4119 7877 4113 7880 4100 7880
4102 7900 4102 7922 4104 7924 4105 7922
4114 7922 4116 7918 4123 7877 4123 7871
4123 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 260DEG 35KT 4101 7916
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
25. dean2007
6:52 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
What do you think the storms would give us?
24. Zachary Labe
6:49 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
dean2007- Did you try some of the links I gave you? They should keep you updated for CAPE values on the Cape. 80degrees sounds a little better. Those storms are getting closer to you.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC031-053-065-291945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0099.080629T1845Z-080629T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN FOREST COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN CLARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FRYBURG...MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NEBRASKA...GOLINZA...COOK FOREST STATE PARK...COOK TOMB...
GUITONVILLE...MUZETTE...HOTTELVILLE...GILFOYLE...CLARINGTON...
REDCLYFFE...WILLIAMS...ROSES...MARIENVILLE...BLUE JAY...MCCRAYS...
PENOKE...LAMONAVILLE...BYROMTOWN...PIGEON...PARRISH...DUNRING AND
SHEFFIELD JUNCTION

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4144 7895 4144 7906 4141 7908 4136 7909
4136 7908 4136 7903 4138 7898 4137 7895
4136 7895 4124 7949 4134 7953 4133 7948
4144 7949 4161 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 250DEG 32KT 4136 7941
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
23. Zachary Labe
6:38 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC005-031-063-065-291930-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0098.080629T1833Z-080629T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN INDIANA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CLARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KITTANNING...MOVING EAST AT 57 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
BETHLEHEM...MUFF...DAYTON...DORA...SMICKSBURG...PLUMVILLE...MARION
CENTER...PUNXSUTAWNEY AND GLEN CAMPBELL

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4068 7882 4077 7960 4095 7958 4102 7955
4102 7902 4099 7880 4072 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 276DEG 50KT 4085 7946
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
22. dean2007
6:35 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Blizzard its 80F right now according to the NWS observations out of Chatham, MA which is where ours is taken as well.
20. Zachary Labe
6:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
dean2007- It is ashame your temperature is not warmer.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC027-035-291915-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0083.080629T1821Z-080629T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PARK FOREST...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF STATE COLLEGE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MILESBURG AND BELLEFONTE AROUND 230 PM EDT...
ZION AROUND 235 PM EDT...
BALD EAGLE STATE PARK AROUND 240 PM EDT...
REBERSBURG AND MILLHEIM AROUND 245 PM EDT...
MILL HALL AND LAMAR AROUND 250 PM EDT...
LOCK HAVEN AND MACKEYVILLE AROUND 255 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 147 AND 189...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59
AND 65.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4135 7752 4102 7718 4093 7727 4070 7800
4072 7806 4085 7816
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 237DEG 47KT 4086 7793
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
19. dean2007
6:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
74.1 °F / 23.4 °C
Clear
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 71 °F / 21 °C
Wind: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h / 4.0 m/s from the SW
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph / 16.1 km/h / 8.7 m/s
Pressure: 29.86 in / 1011.1 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 73 °F / 23 °C
Visibility: 8.0 miles / 12.9 kilometers
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft / 3 m
Harwich, MA
18. Zachary Labe
6:11 PM GMT on June 29, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN VA...MD...CNTRL/ERN PA...SC NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291804Z - 292000Z

AS THE PRIMARY UPR LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO CNTRL QUEBEC
THIS AFTN...LOBE OF ASCENT TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WAS MOVING INTO THE UPR OH VLY AT 18Z.
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASING UPSTREAM ACROSS NW
PA/WRN NY...SUPPORTING STG-SVR TSTMS THERE. DOWNSTREAM...BOUNDARY
LAYER WAS BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN FROM NRN VA
INTO CNTRL/ERN PA AND SCNTRL NY. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG
THE RIDGES/MOUNTAINS AND WILL GROW STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTN.

50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW ALONG FRINGE OF THE UPR TROUGH HAS BEEN EDGING
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APLCNS ALL DAY...AND VWP FROM STATE COLLEGE NOW
SHOWS 55 KTS OF SWLY FLOW BELOW 6 KM AGL. THIS WAS BOOSTING BULK
SHEAR TO NEAR 40 KTS. WHILE KINEMATICS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SVR...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOT /E.G. LESS
THAN 6 DEG C PER KM/. BUT...AFTER SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS...RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE GUSTY TO PSBLY DMGG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. AN ISOLD SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY
WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN
PA INTO SCNTRL NY...BUT THE TEMPERED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
KEEP THE THREAT LOW.

HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SVR WEATHER...THOUGH MODEST AT BEST...WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE N OF THE MID-LEVEL CONVECTION APPROACHING NRN VA...NWD
INTO CNTRL/ERN PA AND SCNTRL NY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 19-20Z.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
17. dean2007
6:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Yes Blizzard, I am.
16. Zachary Labe
6:01 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
dean2007- Well from satellite perspective and even radar they appears as if they might scrape you. There also appears to be new development on the western edge of the small complex. Keep monitoring them.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
15. dean2007
5:49 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS BACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES. MEANWHILE...A PREFRONTAL TROF HAS SET UP
IN A N-S FASHION OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
PHL. NOONTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION THERE.

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STRONG HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST MASS AND PORTIONS OF SRN
NH WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO RETREAT. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS WESTERN MASS/CT/RI
AND PORTIONS OF SE MASS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION LEFT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE THINKING IS THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT
COMBINE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WOULD AID IN STORM
ORGANIZATION.

HOWEVER...THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS TO THE WEST IS A CONCERN...AS THE
WELL AS THE FACT THAT JET DYNAMICS ARE WAY BACK OVER WESTERN NY AND
WESTERN PA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE POOR AS WELL. THESE
FACTORS MAY INDEED HINDER THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT TIME
WILL TELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. NOT
QUITE SURE ABOUT THE SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NY/PA AND WHERE THEY/LL END UP LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE
THEY COULD GET HERE. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE JUST AS GOOD THAT THEY
WILL MISS US TO THE NW WHERE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD TRACK.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG /POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING/ WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.-- End Changed Discussion --


Blizzard how about the storms to my southwest moving at me?
14. Zachary Labe
5:20 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
sullivanweather- Yep, I was a little wrong today so far I did not think western Pennsylvania would see some much severe weather, o well.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
13. Zachary Labe
5:18 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC039-291815-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0173.080629T1715Z-080629T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 114 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEADVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPARTANSBURG

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4161 7974 4162 7982 4152 7998 4148 8000
4148 8012 4147 8013 4147 8028 4170 8041
4186 7970 4185 7961 4166 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 240DEG 22KT 4157 8020
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
12. sullivanweather
5:17 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Those cells out in western PA should form into a line within the next 2 hours. Once that happens, look out...lol

Gonna be a big day today.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
11. Zachary Labe
5:16 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC019-073-085-121-291800-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0095.080629T1707Z-080629T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN VENANGO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 106 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HARLANSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GROVE
CITY...SLIPPERY ROCK...CLINTONVILLE...EAU CLAIRE AND EMLENTON

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4128 7961 4128 7963 4126 7965 4125 7966
4121 7966 4118 7968 4118 7970 4104 7970
4100 8031 4117 8035 4130 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 261DEG 26KT 4110 8019
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
10. Zachary Labe
5:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Looks again like the Pittsburgh area will be slammed. 12z soundings are in and very impressive...Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
9. Zachary Labe
4:57 PM GMT on June 29, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E PA...N NJ...SE NY...S VT...W/CNTRL MA...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291653Z - 291800Z

12Z H5 CHART DEPICTED A SMALL AREA OF 30 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND...RECENTLY...THERE HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTS AT
STRONGER TSTMS ALONG SRN/ERN EDGES OF THE PCPN SHIELD. NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NJ...SE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER WARM. PRE-INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ISOLD
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN NJ NEWD
INTO EXTREME SE NY AND WRN CT/MA. ISOLD DMGG MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR.
BUT...PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FARTHER WEST THIS
AFTN...THEN MOVE TOWARD PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 06/29/2008
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
8. Zachary Labe
4:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OHC029-081-PAC007-WVC029-291800-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0094.080629T1653Z-080629T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SALINEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAMMONDSVILLE...WELLSVILLE...NEWELL...TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK...
NEW MANCHESTER...EAST LIVERPOOL...CHESTER...BLACKHAWK...
HARSHAVILLE...SHIPPINGPORT...BEAVER...ALIQUIPPA AND ECONOMY BORO

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4062 8015 4051 8032 4050 8087 4056 8088
4056 8086 4064 8085 4064 8089 4068 8089
4075 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 266DEG 32KT 4060 8074
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
7. Zachary Labe
4:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAC039-049-291715-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-080629T1715Z/
CRAWFORD PA-ERIE PA-
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR ERIE AND NORTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...


AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NORTH
EAST

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4221 7975 4200 7976 4172 8027 4199 8044
4223 7986 4223 7985 4224 7983 4227 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 247DEG 33KT 4199 7988
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
6. Zachary Labe
4:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2008


Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
5. dean2007
3:07 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
WILL ALSO WATCH FOR WDLY SCT CONVECTION OVER SE MASS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOME ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE/S ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLD STORM COULD DEVELOP ON THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.-- End Changed Discussion --

4. TheRasberryPatch
2:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
my monthly precip - 2.45"
i won't even say what the yearly precip would be because of unknown precip during the winter months. with snow and ice in the bucket and then melting the next few days i wouldn't know how accurate.
I told you so about me fertilizing the grass. : )
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
3. Zachary Labe
2:20 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
jthal57- Well I will watch your area this afternoon and let you know if you missed anything.

TheRasberryPatch- That is ashame you missed all of that rain for that big thunderstorm two days ago. Look at my stats, here there has been lots of rain...

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 5.45inches
Yearly Precipitation- 23.52inches
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
2. TheRasberryPatch
1:58 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Blizz, i watched last night around 930pm a big blob heading my way from hanover or gettysburg. then a couple of tiny cells developed just to my east. lots of lightning (i think we used to call heat lightning when i was younger).
i went to bed @ 11pm and we got NO rain.
hopefully, we will get some rain today. my grass is getting yellow color. some green.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
1. jthal57
1:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Well Blizzard, we shall see how this plays out. I'm a bit bummed out that I may miss some of the activity, need to go to NY to pick up my daughter at JFK. I'm hoping to return around 4ish, hoping the storms hold off till I get back!

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations