830update on lake effect snow possible outbreak

By: Zachary Labe , 12:57 AM GMT on December 27, 2007

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"Afternoon thoughts"
Well good afternoon! Today is another nasty day around the state of Pennsylvania. In the north a few snow showers moved through causing a coating of snow in some spots. In the south is has been only a few rain showers and drizzle. Well this upcoming weekend looks interesting weatherwise. Friday nights a large storm will bring heavy rain across the whole state. Many areas may see over one inch of rain. Then Sunday a possible other storm may affect the southern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania with some snow. This storm though is still not yet in agreement with the computer models. Then arctic air moves in for next week, with maybe a surprise coastal storm with all snow?

"Short Term"
Currently at 1200pm here north of Harrisburg it is 38degrees with clouds and fog. Across the state there are a few rain showers with snow above elevations of 1800ft. But expect little accumulation. Then for the rest of today look out for dense fog on the ridge tops due to low clouds at about 800ft. For tommorrow sun may break out in the eastern part of the state, but I doubt it. Rain will move in across the state by nightfall with rain totals approaching one inch state wide. In the far western and northern part of the state near Erie there may be a change from rain to snow at the tail end of the storm but I doubt it. If this happens still expect no accumulation. Then for Saturday it stays mostly cloudy with some sun across the east.
Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
We are in a very active weather pattern with alot to talk about. First off the Sunday-Monday storm. The is limited cold air, but it may be just cold enough for a little snow storm in the southern half of Pennsylvania. The GFS keeps precipitation to the south of the Mason-Dixon line. The EURO brings in the cold front and a wave develops off of that and becomes a small coastal storm with many areas seeing snow. From about the line from Garret county, Maryland to Baltimore, Maryland, to Wilmington, Delaware, to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to the coast of New Jersey. Anybody to the north of that line has a chance to see moderate snow accumulations if the EURO is true. The CANADIAN model is in between the EURO and GFS with just light snow from a weak wave developing off of the cold front. So for now I will stick with that forecast for light snow north of the line I mentioned earlier. This forecast could change though. Check out the EURO for the 31st...
0z EURO model run for 31st...
After that storm arctic air moves in with high temperatures for next week from 32degrees in Philadelphia to 20degrees in the mountains of northern PA. The question though for next week is if a coastal storm can develop. This would happen if a shortwave gets taken in by the trough and heads up the eastern seaboard spreading all snow. So far the models show no storms, because they think the trough will be too far east so even if a coastal storm would develop then it would be too far east to affect anyone. We will just have to wait and see. Also for todays NAO. It shows us getting highly positive for midmonth and then dropping possibly back to negative later in the month.
Current NAO...
NAO...

***100pm update
Well the 12z GFS shows enough cold air, but no precipitation for the sunday-monday storm. I will have another update as soon as the 12z EURO comes out.

***300pm update
Well the 12z EURO is out and it shows a wave still going through Virginia, and then developing a coastal low. The model run is almost the same as the 0z run, execpt the 12z run shows more in the way of precipitation

***500pm update
Well the 18z GFS is still saying it should be a flat wave through southern Virginia with precipitation not getting even as far north as Washington, DC. But it does show a lot of cold air over the region. I just checked Henry Margusity's 430pm blog, and he believed the GFS will come around to the coastal storm scenerio. So I believe anybody north of the line I mentioned earlier has fair game in getting snow from this storm. But still the storm is many days away and things will probably change. I am starting to understand why the coastal storm might happen, so I am leaning towards that solution.

***830pm update
Well a possible major lake effect snow outbreak looms in the future. After the clipper moves through on Monday with snow showers then the arctic air moves through with a west,north,west flow setting up. It looks as if some impressive banding could occur here in Pennsylvania. And when shortwaves move through next week this will enhance the lake effect snow and bring banding all the way to just east of the mountains. Areas in the laurel highlands and northwest mountains should prepare for a possible major snow event from the lakes. Some spots even is central Pennsylvania may see an inch or two of snow if the banding sets up. It looks like Tuesday will be the worst of the days for lake effect. I will have much more on this possibility this weekend.

My concerns for Sun-Mon Storm
A. Marginal cold air mass
B. Why does a big storm blow up like the EURO shows
C. The GFS forecasted the recent coastal better than the
Euro
D. The storm just heads out to sea


"Just to throw out there"

For the storm on Sunday, the GFS shows little precipitation for anyone in Pennsylvania. Now remember the GFS also predicted yesterday's coastal storm more accurately than the other models. So maybe the GFS is right. We will have to wait and see.

"Regional Forecasts" (Thursday Night)

1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Cloudy. Low 31.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Cloudy with areas of fog after 2am. Low 32.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Mostly cloudy. Low 35.

4. Central- (State College)-
Cloudy with dense fog late. Low 29.

5. Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
Mostly cloudy with patchy dense fog late. Low 29.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Cloudy. Low 31.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Cloudy with widespread dense fog. Low 29.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.

Regional Map...

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26. MDFirefighter
11:03 AM GMT on December 28, 2007
looks like the GFS & Euro are FINALLY wanting to agree on something. This one is going to be interesting to watch Blizzard. Looks like there may be plenty of precip AND cold air in place. :D
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
25. charlesimages
3:03 AM GMT on December 28, 2007
Cool updates =) Thanks for stopping by my blog as well =)

I see models still aren't agreeing yet huh??
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
24. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on December 28, 2007
I had originally lacrosse weather station before my davis vantage pro2 and it worked fine. Though it did not seem to record accurate wind speeds.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
23. cchamp6
12:51 AM GMT on December 28, 2007
I got my weather monitoring station up and running today. Registered with the Underground, should be on the site tomm. Oh one more great forecast after another here from the NWS. Didnt see the ice coming last night and then predicted 1-3 of snow for this afternoon and tonight. Not a single flake. I wonder how much they pay those guys in Albany. Find me a big storm soon.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
22. cchamp6
11:24 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Just wanted to tell you that I finally got a home weather station. I registered with The Weather Underground and expect to be on the site tomm. I cheaped out and got an inexpensive La Crosse, but it does everything I want. Maybe next time Ill upgrade.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
21. Zachary Labe
10:02 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
My local weatherman's 500pm seven day outlook shows bright and sunny conditions during the sunday to monday time frame. Lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
20. Zachary Labe
9:34 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
My question for the EURO is why should a big storm like the EURO shows develop.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
19. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
philliesrock- Thank you for showing me those odds. The EURO prints out an inch of precipitation for my area in mostly snow. Now I do not think that will happen, but I am starting to get excited.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
18. edhanna
8:31 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Lol, good ol' phillies.
17. philliesrock
8:21 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Models that show the storm:

NAM
DGEX
NOGAPS
Euro
JMA
UKMET
GGEM
ETA

Models that don't show the storm:

GFS
RSM

The odds are pretty favorable.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
16. Zachary Labe
8:21 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
I will have another update when the 18z GFS comes out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
15. Zachary Labe
8:16 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Yes, I think if the 12z EURO would hold true then anybody north of the mason-dixon line would see mostly snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
14. edhanna
8:12 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Looks a little warmer,just a tad with like you said a bit more precip. I really hope that the GFS climbs aboard with this by the 18z run.
13. Zachary Labe
8:09 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Link
It only shows long term model maps though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
12. edhanna
8:06 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Nice update blizzard, do you mind giving me the link to the Euro model you use please? Gracias.
11. Zachary Labe
8:02 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Yes, our NWS did a pour job forecasting that recent storm. They were off by 10degrees for the daytime high.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
10. cchamp6
6:42 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Once again Albany NWS blew our Litchfield county forecast last night. Apparently they dont have access to a radar site!! It seems eveyone but the folks who should know saw it coming. No advisories what so ever. Taunton picked up on it last night and had a freezing rain advisory. I swear they dont realize that Litchfield county is in their jurisdiction. If they get a cloud to form in Albany fireworks go off and all sorts of warnings go out. We could have a blizzard here and nothing happens. The ice situation was 10xs worst than the big wind event that never happened over the weekend. The roads were nearly impassable. Who decides what counties are under whose jurisdiction? We should be under Tauntons, they cover the other 3 northern counties. Ok Ill stop bitching for now and keep listening to the ones who know here on this site.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
9. Zachary Labe
6:11 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Could be interesting storm for Sunday. I would say anybody north of Baltimore needs to be on the look out for possible chance of snow that day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
8. Zachary Labe
3:46 PM GMT on December 27, 2007
Stormfront- I went to noaa.gov and at their homepage I typed in NAM and GFS comuter models in their search engine and found a wonderful link. It is easy to use.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
7. Stormfront
2:53 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
Love to know where your getting the computer models info, Blizzard!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
6. Zachary Labe
1:40 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
Thank you, I sure hope we see some snow in the next week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
5. MDFirefighter
1:38 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
Nice update Blizzard. These models are wanting to get my hopes down lol. Hopefully we'll see some of the white stuff
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
4. Zachary Labe
1:38 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
I now created a map of my regional forecast areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
3. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
Yes, the SOUTHERN PA section includes Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
2. rangerwillie1
1:17 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
B92, when you mention southern PA, do you include as far east as Chester & Delaware counties? That's as close as I get from norther New Castle County, Delaware.

Thanks, Bill
1. tropicfreak
1:13 AM GMT on December 27, 2007
First!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Elevation: 520 ft
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Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
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