Severe Weather Outbreak June 23

By: Zachary Labe , 1:46 PM GMT on June 23, 2008

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather Outbreak of June 23"
Good Monday morning!!! Well I want to take time to recap a little from yesterday's severe weather and below is my verification map to see how well my forecast turned out. Well what a bust of a day. Severe weather did not really impact the areas the had the highest severe weather parameters. Now I am not too upset with my forecast as I was going to issue a slight risk for the whole region, but upgraded to a moderate risk due to the isolated tornado threat. What actually happened was pulse thunderstorm like supercells developed in southcentral Pennsylvania where large hail and damaging winds occured. Also in northwest Pennsylvania an isolated severe weather report occured. A CAP occured across much of Pennsylvania. The jet stream's position surpressed much of the activity. Overall my forecast was not too good, but really I was expecting this. The SPC yet again really had a bust of a day too. For today another severe weather threat is upon us in Pennsylvania. Later in the evening though a line of thunderstorms moved across western Pennsylvania into Cambria County sparking a severe thunderstorm warning and a hail report of 1inch in the county. Today I expect more thunderstorms to form than yesterday with most of them very capable of becoming severe with hail being the primary threat. As we saw yesterday hail was quite common with even 3inch diameter hail reported in New Hampshire and over 2inch diameter hail in West Virginia. Tornadoes are a slight threat again today, and yesterday too funnel clouds were reported in parts of New York State. Here is yesterday's verification map...


"Current Weather Setup"
Yesterday the ingredients were there, except for a triggering mechanism. There were three shortwaves or pieces of energy that triggered severe weather in Ohio, Virginia, and New England. All Pennsylvania received was some severe pulse thunderstorms in the southcentral part of the state. Now today things are a little different as there is a large convergence zone over the northeast as areas of shortwaves and upper-levels lows. In this case severe weather will be more widespread over the state of Pennsylvania. Storms will likely fire in two locations today. One in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania ahead of the actual cold front. And a second firing zone along the right quadrant of the jet stream entrence which will be found in eastern Pennsylvania. In between these two zones will be just pulse thunderstorms. Severe weather parameters for the day are a little more impressive than yesterday. Bulk shear values are around 50knots and up to 60knots in eastern Pennsylvania. Freezing levels are around 9kft which is prime for large hail development. Also the cold pool aloft will again be focused over the region. Shear levels winds though 0-4kft are low at around 20knots. Today's dewpoints are slightly higher than yesterdays as they are in the mid 60s in many areas. But as we saw yesterday the dewpoints do not really inhibit heavy rain producers. PWATs are several deviations above normal around 1.5inches in eastern Pennsylvania. The PWATs get lower moving west across Pennsylvania. CAPE values today should get around 2000 j/kg at the max heating of the day. Already CIN is noticeably lower than it was yesterday so there is less CAP on the atmosphere. Lapse rates look adequate for severe weather. Storm organization for today looks to be mainly cellular with some multicellular storms. All storms should move in a southwest to northeast direction. The LI index today is around -4 similar to yesterday and the SWEAT index is around 250 and that is centered over western Pennsylvania. So for today several zones or boundaries will be where the storms will fire. Areas not in these zones will most likely stay dry similar to yesterday. Severe weather will not be widespread but more of a scattered variety with concentrated areas of storm reports. Stay tuned for more atmospheric soundings throughout the day.

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

...OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST...
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEY
REGIONS THIS MORNING IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE/MOVE
EWD...AND MODELS BRING TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A LARGE AREA
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN SEVERAL EPISODES AS
HEATING AND DEEP ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT PROVIDE INCREASING INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MOIST
CONVECTION/CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...ALTHOUGH MODERATE SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
SUSTAIN 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT STRONGER EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND/HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL VA...WHERE MORE SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE COMMON. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS A MORE ACTIVE CORRIDOR OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NRN CHESAPEAKE REGION INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER MORE ACTIVE REGION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD ALONG BACK SIDE OF BROADER
TROUGH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE QUITE MESSY
ONCE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH WEAK
FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


"Model Analysis"
The models have been have many struggles with this entire system the last three days. Yet again they do not agree at all. The NMM model intiation is very poor with it indicating only about a CAPE max of 500 j/kg. But it's simulated radar seems to have a good handle on the pop up thunderstorms do I decided to post it along with the other models below. The SREF which did pretty well yesterday is showing CAPE of 1500 j/kg in southeastern Pennsylvania. But I think that number is a little to low and will be more like 2000 j/kg. The GFS is inbetween the NMM and SREF with about 1000 j/kg over most of the area. The NAM model though is around 1500 j/kg to 2500 j/kg across much of the state of Pennsylvania. As a resolution it looks like a nowcast type of forecast in which it is a wait and see type of game. The short term RUC model though seems to be handling the system perfectly. But it is hard to forecast by the RUC model because it only goes out to 12 hrs. With using the RUC model it is a near term type of forecast with putting all the details together. So for today I took into the forecast mostly surface map analysis with the latest mesoanalysis from the SPC, the latest Skewt T soundings, the NAM/SREF model, and past history of the storm. Yet again today could be another bust day of a forecast as it is very hard to tell where storms will fire up as there is no distinct triggering mechanism. Just about any area could see severe thunderstorms today. I would say the southcentral mountains region would be the most likely area for initial storm development. Below are all of the Monday morning model runs.

"3z SREF Model Forecast Max Cape Index"

(Monday afternoon)

"12z NAM Model Forecast SWEAT, Helicity, and CAPE indices"

(Monday afternoon)

"0z NMM Model Future Simulated Radar"

(Monday afternoon)

"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
As the piece of energy moves through Ohio it will spark thunderstorms across western and central Pennsylvania today that will gradually move east. Today all of the storms will have a southwest to northeast fashion though. Storms that intially develop in the southern Appalachian mountains in West Virginia and Virginia will move northeast up into eastern Pennsylvania. It appears the northern mountains region will have the least amount of storms making there threat of severe weather only slight. For the rest of the region they are under a moderate risk due to the isolated threat of tornadoes, quite large hail, and some isolated damaging winds. Remember my moderate risks due not have the same meaning as the SPC's moderate risk. My risk levels are usually are step above what the SPC predicts due to the fact that severe weather is more uncommon in Pennsylvania and sometimes people are not aware of the threat. Throughout today I expect most of the state under some type of severe thunderstorm watch as was the case yesterday. Stay tuned for many updates through the day today. Keep your NOAA weather radio on and stay tuned for the latest updates from your local NWS and local News Media.

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"

(Monday)

"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
Looking ahead towards the future. This is the last severe weather threat for several days. Now for Tuesday I cannot rule out some hail reports due to the daytime instibility and cold pool aloft. For Wednesday things will quiet down. But potentially for Thursday night an MCS complex from the midwest could move across the state with some nocturnal thunderstorms. MCS usually are capable of some intense lightning and heavy rain. For Friday things will become unsettled with some scattered thunderstorms as the heat and humidity increases ahead of the next cold front. For Saturday severe weather could be a large threat as another strong cold front moves through with a deep upper level trough behind it. The SPC is already talking about the threat in their long term discussion...

A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY
INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES BY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH DAY 6/SATURDAY CURRENTLY SEEMING TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

Stay tuned for the latest updates throughout the week as we are getting into the heart of severe weather season here in Pennsylvania. Have a wonderful Monday!!!

"Storm Reports"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 3
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 1
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 13

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 2.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 21.04inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 5

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46. Zachary Labe
3:41 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yep I had large trees down throughout my township. I have no clue why they did not issue a warning. Garden is great, my blueberries are turning ripe and I just picked my first batch of snow peas. The beans are now starting to grow too. I will be sure to have another garden blog later in the summer. Sometimes it is nice to write something else other that forecasts. I will try to do that maybe twice a month.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
45. TheRasberryPatch
3:22 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
wow no warning issued. i have a small branch on my one tree broken. i can always tell when a strong wind came by. the trash can is tipped over.
how do you not issue a warning. they must not be following the radar.
how is the garden? i loved the garden blog.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
44. Zachary Labe
2:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Welcome back! I hope to see that picture, wow! We had some isolated severe weather on Sunday and Monday. Large golf ball sized hail fell in nearby Adams County. In Lebanon County a large thunderstorm moved through Monday night where several trees were reported down in Dauphin and Lebanon County. No warning was issued for that storm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
43. TheRasberryPatch
12:13 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
Hello
I have been out of the loop for a few days. I was visiting vacaioning family in Avon, NC. We actually saw the funnel out over the sound on Saturday evening when the tornado warning was issued. It was right on the edge of the dark clouds. My nephew got a picture of it and I am hoping that he is able to email it to me, so I can post it here.
I noticed on Monday, here at my house there was a wind gust of 36 mph @945pm.
Doesn't appear that there was any hot weather for the past weekend.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
42. Zachary Labe
12:48 AM GMT on June 25, 2008
Good Tuesday evening!!! I had a severe thunderstorm move through my area last night with intense lightning (I will upload pictures Wednesday), heavy rain (.53inches), and wind gusts near 60mph. Tree damage was pretty widespread in my region. What I find most curious is that no warning was issued for my county. Anyway I was busy today with no update. Recap on severe weather event is coming tomorrow with verification map. Also there is high chances of severe weather in our future. More on that tomorrow. Have a great night!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
41. dean2007
12:17 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Strong cell moved just to my west last night. I'm going to work now ciao.
40. MDFirefighter
11:54 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Had a pretty strong cell move through last night around 8 or 830. HEAVY rain, very strong wind and plenty of lightning. If I had to guess, I'd say we saw gusts up to 50 or 60.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
39. cchamp6
2:00 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Blizz,

Another severe thunderstorm warning for me. A pretty good lightning show going on now.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
38. Zachary Labe
1:19 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC001-055-240145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0074.080624T0059Z-080624T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 855 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ROUZERVILLE...OR NEAR WAYNESBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARROLL VALLEY AROUND 915 PM EDT...
GETTYSBURG AROUND 935 PM EDT...
GERMANTOWN AROUND 940 PM EDT...
BONNEAUVILLE AND LITTLESTOWN AROUND 945 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
30...STATE ROAD 97.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.



PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3973 7766 3990 7699 3988 7698 3980 7699
3980 7700 3973 7700 3971 7706 3972 7764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 250DEG 22KT 3972 7750
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
37. jthal57
12:58 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Blizzard-looks like a line setting up in central PA with a few heavy cells. We'll see if they hold together all the way to the Delaware River!
36. Zachary Labe
12:57 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL was just reported in Adams County near Carrol Valley. Seek shelter now in the path of that storm. Look out Adams and York County.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
35. JDinWPA
12:53 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Good evening Bliz. The storms that passed directly overhead this afternoon weren't bad. There was an cell that passed about a mile south of me that had a lot of lightening with it. An excellent show that I got to watch from the deck until the rain forced me inside.

But here... no really strong winds, no hail, no scary lightening. Got .16" of rain which brings me up to 3.61" for the month. Not bad!
34. Zachary Labe
12:48 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC001-041-055-133-240145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0073.080624T0045Z-080624T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 842 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MONT ALTO...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT
22 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CASHTOWN AROUND 905 PM EDT...
SEVEN STARS AROUND 910 PM EDT...
GETTYSBURG AROUND 915 PM EDT...
PINE GROVE FURNACE STATE AROUND 925 PM EDT...
HEIDLERSBURG AROUND 940 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
30.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 4016 7699 3991 7686 3975 7753 3992 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 248DEG 19KT 3987 7747
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
33. Zachary Labe
12:40 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC041-240115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0072.080624T0037Z-080624T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
837 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SHIPPENSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WALNUT BOTTOM AND NEWVILLE AROUND 850 PM EDT...
NEWVILLE AROUND 855 PM EDT...
PINE GROVE FURNACE STATE AROUND 900 PM EDT...
BLOSERVILLE AROUND 905 PM EDT...
MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS AROUND 910 PM EDT...
CARLISLE AND CARLISLE SPRINGS AROUND 915 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 204 AND 235.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 4009 7756 4012 7756 4015 7761 4029 7733
4028 7733 4028 7730 4031 7708 4017 7697
4015 7698 4015 7703 4010 7710 3999 7748
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 245DEG 22KT 4009 7749
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
32. Zachary Labe
11:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC001-055-240045-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0071.080623T2353Z-080624T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 751 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CARROLL VALLEY...OR 6 MILES WEST OF EMMITSBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARROLL VALLEY AROUND 800 PM EDT...
SEVEN STARS AND CASHTOWN AROUND 820 PM EDT...
GETTYSBURG AND GERMANTOWN AROUND 825 PM EDT...
BONNEAUVILLE AROUND 830 PM EDT...
HEIDLERSBURG AND NEW OXFORD AROUND 845 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
30.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3997 7745 4000 7739 4003 7722 3992 7698
3988 7699 3987 7696 3985 7698 3972 7720
3972 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 228DEG 23KT 3972 7743
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
31. dean2007
11:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
No not really Blizz. The best storms arrive in July and August when the fog factor diminishes. Fog develops when there is a higher dew point temperature then the ocean temperature. The wind has to be over the water as well. So no, no real severe storms until July.
30. Zachary Labe
10:52 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
630 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

PAZ024>026-034-232330-
BEDFORD-BLAIR-CAMBRIA-HUNTINGDON-
630 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
BLAIR...SOUTHERN CAMBRIA AND WEST CENTRAL HUNTINGDON COUNTIES...


AT 627 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER PORTAGE...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CASSANDRA AROUND 635 PM...SKI GAP...AND
CRESSON AROUND 645 PM...GALLITZIN AROUND 650 PM...CLAYSBURG AROUND
655 PM...DUNCANSVILLE...ROARING SPRING...AND HORSESHOE CURVE AROUND
705 PM AND HOLLIDAYSBURG AROUND 710 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 38.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
220
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
29. Zachary Labe
10:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
jthal57- This has been a very frusturating last couple of days for sure.

dean2007- Looks like the thunderstorms are weakening fast. Your marine layer sure does destroy storms. Do you ever get a good severe storm on the cape?

cchamp6- Wow another storm. I would love to have a storm my lawn and garden really needs it.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
28. dean2007
10:40 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Nope already weakening, DBZ is dropping, be back within 10 minutes if not earlier.
27. cchamp6
10:34 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
I think they might make it.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
26. dean2007
10:33 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
It appears they want to merge, how cool would that be? Not likely though, its too cool here. also too cloudy.
25. dean2007
10:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Link
Storms are to the southwest, it appears they are interesting to watch, but will they make it here? I don't think so.
24. dean2007
10:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Great photos Blizz. Also I wanted to add that the slight risk posted by the SPC was another bust here in eastern MA because of the timing of the later arrival of the cold front for tomorrow afternoon as cloud cover has really hampered any thunderstorm development. There are a few cells trying to develop over the ocean to our southwest and they look interesting.
23. jthal57
10:06 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Blizzard- It seems all the activity out west has to make it east. But I thought that yesterday, too.
22. cchamp6
9:45 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Here comes another one. Thunder rumbling in the distance. Link for radar. Link
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
21. Zachary Labe
9:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC005-129-232215-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0070.080623T2109Z-080623T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
APOLLO...VANDERGRIFT...FORD CITY...CROOKED CREEK LAKE PARK AND
ELDERTON

LAT...LON 4078 7923 4057 7942 4056 7977 4060 7977
4060 7974 4063 7970 4075 7970 4083 7922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 262DEG 19KT 4066 7966
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
20. Zachary Labe
9:05 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
***5:00pm Update...

An interesting evening is ahead for sure. A severe thunderstorm watch was just issued to our south in Maryland. Those complexes of storms are moving northeast at 18mph and may move into southeastern Pennsylvania this evening. Along with a cold front moving east severe weather will start to become a threat from central Pennsylvania on eastward. Stay tuned for more updates.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
19. cchamp6
8:47 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
I only had .50" at my house. Other areas near me have had up to 3" this afternoon.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
18. cchamp6
8:45 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
I sent in a report a few minutes ago. Areas 8-10 miles northwest of me have had more storms than I can count this year.

Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
17. Zachary Labe
8:27 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC019-232115-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0068.080623T2020Z-080623T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MORAINE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOOKER AND CHICORA

LAT...LON 4088 7970 4084 8016 4101 8017 4105 8012
4114 7970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 259DEG 18KT 4094 8014
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
16. Zachary Labe
8:27 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC031-053-232115-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0069.080623T2021Z-080623T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
421 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FOREST COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN CLARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOX...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FRYBURG...CLARION...COOK FOREST STATE PARK...GILFOYLE...
HOTTELVILLE...WILLIAMS...REDCLYFFE...ROSES...PARRISH AND
LAMONAVILLE

LAT...LON 4143 7896 4144 7907 4134 7910 4133 7917
4134 7918 4132 7918 4134 7920 4121 7922
4118 7959 4132 7961 4132 7955 4134 7955
4133 7948 4139 7948 4150 7895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 259DEG 18KT 4129 7949
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
15. Zachary Labe
8:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC059-WVC051-103-232115-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0067.080623T2013Z-080623T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHERN WETZEL COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PROCTOR...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WILEYVILLE...KNOB FORK...CAMERON...DENVER HEIGHTS...LITTLETON...
MOUNT CARMEL...HUNDRED...ROUND BOTTOM...ALEPPO...OAK FOREST...
ROGERSVILLE AND BUZZ

LAT...LON 3965 8088 3968 8086 3970 8083 3976 8087
3979 8084 3990 8024 3972 8021 3972 8042
3972 8043 3971 8041 3964 8040 3963 8041
3964 8044 3962 8045 3960 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 261DEG 18KT 3971 8077
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
14. Zachary Labe
8:02 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC007-019-232100-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0066.080623T1959Z-080623T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BLACKHAWK...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BEAVER FALLS...BEAVER...FOMBELL...ZELIENOPLE...EVANS CITY...MARS...
SAXONBURG AND BUTLER

LAT...LON 4066 7979 4067 8014 4065 8015 4064 8052
4082 8052 4086 8030 4086 8016 4088 8016
4093 7983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 263DEG 20KT 4074 8042
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
13. Zachary Labe
7:54 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
cchamp6- Wow quite a thunderstorm year you have had there in CT. Were the trees down reported to your NWS? And how much rain fell, the radar shows flash flooding with the training storms?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
12. cchamp6
7:52 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Several trees down from storms earlier this afternoon. A trainig line of storm just to my south. Here is a link to the radar. Link
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
11. Zachary Labe
7:47 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OHC007-PAC039-049-232030-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0128.080623T1942Z-080623T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
WESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINESVILLE...OR ABOUT 7
MILES EAST OF JEFFERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MEADVILLE AND ALBION

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4198 8030 4161 8005 4150 8043 4181 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 238DEG 12KT 4174 8063
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
10. Zachary Labe
6:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OHC007-155-PAC039-231945-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0124.080623T1855Z-080623T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
255 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN TRUMBULL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
WESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANDOVER...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
SOUTH OF JEFFERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KINSMAN AND LINESVILLE

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4148 8029 4148 8042 4149 8045 4148 8046
4148 8051 4144 8052 4144 8085 4171 8086
4186 8038 4185 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 271DEG 15KT 4155 8072
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
9. Zachary Labe
6:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH...WRN PA...WV AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231855Z - 232030Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CORES. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA
LOCATED ON THE SRN AND ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS PROVIDING
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN PA AND OH.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SRN SIDE
OF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY AND THE STORMS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NY...WV AND SW PA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C/ ALONG WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. IN
ADDITION...RUC DATA SUGGESTS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
8. WxWyz
6:51 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Wow, that's dry. We picked up another inch this morning. This upper northwest flow pattern has been sending overnight complexes through the area from Kansas but looks like upper ridging will put an end to that for awhile after possibly one more round tonight.
7. Zachary Labe
6:39 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
WxWyz- Thanks, also I really need the rain. I have not seen over .17inches of rain since June 4.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

PAZ009-015-016-022-231930-
ARMSTRONG PA-CLARION PA-FOREST PA-JEFFERSON PA-
234 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
ARMSTRONG...JEFFERSON...FOREST AND CLARION...

AT 226 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIMESTONE...OR
ABOUT OVER RIMERSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

BE ALERT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTING...SMALL HAIL TO ONE HALF
INCH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BROOKVILLE...CLARION...CLEAR CREEK STATE PARK...LIMESTONE...
SUMMERVILLE...CLARINGTON...COOK TOMB...HOMINY RIDGE...
HOTTELVILLE...ALASKA...BAXTER...BLOWTOWN...BRINKERTON...CALLENSBURG
AND CHURCHVILLE

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
6. WxWyz
6:25 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Hope you get some good storms today!
5. Zachary Labe
5:37 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
MDFirefighter- Thanks.


***1:30pm update...

Well I can already tell today is going to be much more active that yesterday across Pennsylvania. Cumulus clouds are rapidly developing and beginning to tower. Small cells are developing in western Pennsylvania with lightning being reported. And the SPC is thinking about posting a watch in central Pennsylvania. Storms will beginning firing up and strengthening within the next hour. And one other thing I forgot to mention in my outlook, todays storms will be highly electrical. Becareful when the threat of lightning is near.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
4. MDFirefighter
5:01 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Nice shots Blizz
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
3. Zachary Labe
4:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...CNTRL PA...CNTRL AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231510Z - 231645Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN CNTRL NY...ERN NY AND CNTRL PA OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW SHOULD BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT / 500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO -16C / WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT MULTICELL
LINE SEGMENTS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
2. Zachary Labe
2:41 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
MDFirefighter- Yep, another day of hit or miss severe thunderstorms.


Last night a little before 11pm a thunderstorm flared up to my southeast. With clear skies I captured some lightning photos. Now I know these photos are sort of blurry and not very good. But I am learning how to work my camera more easy now.





Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
1. MDFirefighter
2:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
Looks like today could be quite interesting :)
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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