Regional forecast for tonight's coastal storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 2:46 PM GMT on December 26, 2007

Share this Blog
0
+

"Afternoon Thoughts"
Well good morning and I hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas. Anyway last night a few snow showers moved into my region and I got a surprise coating of snow and when I look at radar it shows more snow moving into my area soon. This is all from a coastal low. This coastal low may pull a few surprises. It seems to be closer to the coast than the models thought it would be for this time. My temperature at my north of Harrisburg is 33degrees as of 1040am. This temperature is much colder than any weather station predicted. But I have noticed that the deformation band of snow headed my way is being ripped apart, probably by the high pressure. Still though it will be interesting to watch what will happen with this storm. I think some areas in MA, NH, and VT will get several inches of snow. I do not think any accumulation will occur here in PA from this storm. Also thursday and short wave moves into PA, probably and the New York border. This might cause a coating to two inches of snow in some higher elevations of Pennsylvania. About above 1700ft is where most of the accumulating snow will be. Here in southern PA, I expect little if anything from this week storm too.
I will have more on this storm this afternoon.

Current Radar...
Radar...

Also for this December 31st storm, the GFS really wants to deliver a coastal storm with many areas getting snow, even as far south as the Delaware Valley. If this would happen many areas would see moderate accumulations of snow.
Check out the 06z GFS for the 31st...
GFS...

Then for the January storm. Many questions still remain with this, but one thing is for sure and arctic outbreak will be headed in for next week. Though it will be shortlived, and then most of the USA goes above average in temperature for a time. I check many models and do not see a storm on any of the models for the first week in January, but I may have missed something. Correct me if I am wrong.

***Update as of 1130am...
Well the 12z gfs is out for the 31st and it shows not a coastal low, but it shows another low heading up through Ohio spreading warm air northward, so in this case there would be little snow. Also for today's coastal storm it shows the storm farthur west than previous models. This will be something to watch. Here is the 12z gfs model map for the 31st...
12z gfs...

***Update as of 330pm...
Well interesting, very interesting the coastal storm in much farthur inland than any of the models predicted, temperatures are about 10degrees colder than any weather service predicted, and the slug of precipitation is as far west as Martinsburg, West Virginia and the precipitation does not seem to be moving east. The radar basically shows the precip. moving very slowly to the north with it all most being light. Here north of Harrisburg it is 36degrees and lightly raining. I think it will be interesting in the next few hours to see what happens with this storm. Once the sun sets temperatures will probably drop 2-4degrees by evening and that will be close enough for maybe some areas to see snow. We will have to wait and see. It will be interesting to see how long precipitation hangs out in the far west. I will issue my forecast regional for tonight for Pennsylvania around 500pm.


I should have much more on these storms sometime later today...

"Short Term Outlook"
Regional forecast for tonight...

Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Light rain. Low 32.

South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Light rain ending. Remaining cloudy. Low 31.

Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Light rain all night. .25inch of rain. Low 34.

Central- (State College)-
Cloudy. Flurries and a few snow showers after midnight. No snow accumulation. Low 26.

Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
Cloudy then light snow after 2am. (coating to one inch of snow accumulation) Low 27.

Western- (Pittsburgh)
Cloudy with late night flurries. Low 27.

Johnstown, Altoona-
Cloudy. Late night flurries. Low 25.

Check back soon. Blog is in progress.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 13 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

13. MDFirefighter
10:26 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
i hate the mid-atlantic :( lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
12. philliesrock
10:20 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
You won't see snow. Temps in the upper levels of the atmosphere are too high.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
11. Zachary Labe
10:18 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
Yes, it is 34degrees with mainly rain but some sleet is now being mixed in. I wonder if we will see snow????
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
10. MDFirefighter
10:17 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
are you seeing a mix in Harrisburg?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
9. Zachary Labe
9:18 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
Up here north of Harrisburg the temp. is slowly falling due to it get darking. I wonder if we will see a change over to snow
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
8. MDFirefighter
8:59 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
1557 hrs here. Pretty good line of showers just came through with a few flurries and light sleet mixed in. After night fall, the roads may get tricky. Everything is soaked and temps are forcasted to be around 30. If you're going to be driving, use caution to due possible icy road conditions. It would be nice to see a change over to snow before the precip makes its way out of the region. I'll be posting an update on my blog within an hour.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
7. lawntonlookers
7:56 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
12/26/07 2:30 PM
Starting to get sleet on Derry Street with a temperature just above freezing. It didn’t' get near the forecast high of 40 plus yet today. Looks like the storm in the NE is tracking more inland than expected in the earlier forecast. Starting to get some comments on Dr. Masters Blog
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
6. Zachary Labe
4:03 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
Does this storm seem to be tracking farthur north than what the models said?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
5. lawntonlookers
4:00 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
Blizz:

Just checking the water vapor and Jet stream, and it appears that the snow band that we were thinking about earlier is going to be pushed quickly toward the east. However with the cold air near the surface, any ran may cause some light freezing. It just feels cold and damp, like something is going to happen.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
4. Zachary Labe
3:55 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
lawntonlookers- that was one of the worst storms in terms of tree damage I have ever seen. I hope we get no more ice storms this year. More snow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
3. charlesimages
3:42 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
I had a great Christmas! Got a couple flash drives, Metallica t-shirt, Megadeth cds, and lots more.

Hope you had a great Christmas too!

Had some freezing fog this morning, and overnight, made for some nice Hoar Frost pix this AM!

Glad you got some snow! Here's to hoping you get some more
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
2. Zachary Labe
3:34 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
It definately will not get to 47degrees like the local weather says.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1. lawntonlookers
3:17 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
Blizz:

I have the same feeling about the coastal storm as you do. The temperature hasn't gone up much since sunrise and I noticed that the clouds are starting to drift toward the north. Regardless of the models, it sure feels like something is going to hit Central PA today. Hopefully not another ice storm. I noticed on Monday that the Rutherford railroad bridge that goes between Derry St and the Walmart, the railing along the walkway on the east side was knocked down. I would think that it was caused be the ice and wind storm that we had last week. Keep me updated.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

Viewing: 13 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations