Isolated strong thunderstorms today...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:23 PM GMT on May 17, 2008

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather Outbreak of May 17"
Good Saturday afternoon!!! Well it has been a little while since a blog update so I figured on posting one on the chance of strong thunderstorms across the state. Instibility is marginall at best, but dynamics are there for some gusty thunderstorms with small hail. Overall there may be few severe weather reports today anywhere as most of the hail and wind should be below severe limits. But none the less there may a be a few stronger updrafts to develop an isolated severe thunderstorm. Looking onto tomorrow another area of isolated strong thunderstorms may form in far eastern and southern Pennsylvania as the stronger dynamics move eastward into that region so it may be possible to post another one of these severe weather format blogs. Stay tuned throughout today for more near term updates.

"Current Weather Setup"
A cold front is trailing southeastward across the great lakes and then through Pennsylvania. The front is accompanied by a strong low-level jet and cold air aloft. These factors will come together to form some isolated stronger thunderstorms today. Shear levels are moderately high with the front which will also aid to thunderstorm development. It is quite amazing on how cold the air is for this time of year. 850s aloft for Sunday are down below 32degrees for much of the state of Pennsylvania as far south as Harrisburg. So far for the first 16days of May temperatures have been well below normal and that pattern looks to continue for at least the next couple of days before some changes are on the way.

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
SPC AC 171626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...ERN GREAT LAKES...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH /NOW CROSSING SERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/ AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH NWRN OH
WILL AID IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM PRODUCTION TODAY. ANTECEDENT
CLOUD COVERAGE/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING...AND
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD FAVOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


"Model Analysis"
I am not too excited about what I see on the models for this Saturday. CAPE values are very low and most extreme over central Pennsylvania with maxes only near 400-500 j/kg. LI indexes though are pretty impressive (not posted here) with them around -2-0 in central Pennsylvania. Freezing levels are incredibly low for this time of year with them around 5000ft in some areas of northern Pennsylvania today. Steep lapse rates though will favor thunderstorm development. Overall the time of day, steep lapse rates, and strong low-level jet should overcome the week instibility. For the simulated radar it basically shows the cold front moving through accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Todays threats are for small hail and isolated damaging winds. Any thunderstorms upper half of cloud base will be able to reach into below freezing temperatures in the atmosphere and with a strong enough updraft hail could be a threat. Also with a strong enough updraft thunderstorms could tap into the low-level jet and pull down some 40mph winds to the surface. Overall though all models concur that this should not be a widespread outbreak by any means.

"9z SREF Model Forecast Cape Index"


"NMM Future Simulated Radar"


"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
My forecast for severe weather is for a slight risk of severe weather across central Pennsylvania with a risk of regular thunderstorms for most all other areas. Tomorrow again there is a slight risk so a new map will probably be issue tomorrow. Again I am not too concerned about severe weather both days with hail and wind being the two primary threats.

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"


"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
Overall not too concerned about today other than some marginal reports of very small hail and gusty winds but I figured I would post this blog just in case a severe cell forms as it only takes on storm to change people's lives forever. Stay tuned to your NOAA weather radio. And stay tuned here to this blog as I will have updates throughout the day on the situation developing or nondeveloping. Looking foward it stays below normal temperatures for the next 5-7days, but there are signs of a warmup in the future. For Monday afternoon I will post my weekly weather format blog. Have a great rest of your Saturday!!!

"Storm Reports"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 0
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 9

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 3.07inches
Yearly Precipitation- 16.73inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0

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47. JDinWPA
1:21 AM GMT on May 20, 2008
Good evening all. The wind finally stopped and it is much better here. Today's totals are: 54/38 .04". I ended up with two pound cakes, a meatloaf and an inside temp of 70 at the moment. Not too shabby!
46. Zachary Labe
10:27 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
JDinWPA- I know, this is bad in terms of cold. The heat turned on here the other night.

sullivanweather- Wow, talk about weird. Snow flakes were reported also today in northwestern Pennsylvania. Enjoyed a wonderful batch of lettuce this evening for dinner out of the garden.

TheRasberryPatch- My neighbors were opening there pool and decided to wait a week as temperatures are just to cool. Area community pools are opening this coming weekend for Memorial Day and I cannot image the water temperature.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
45. TheRasberryPatch
7:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
it is ridiculous that you won't heat up the house. :) i think this month i have been back and forth with the heat and ac. mostly heat. hot water based board heat is so nice and keeps the house nice and cozy even with the thermostat on 68.
i went out and started to vacuum the pool and got half way down and said this is riduculous and decided to vacuum another day. : )
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
44. JDinWPA
6:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
This is ridiculous. It's 51 outside with strong winds that have been going all day. I'm wearing socks, flannels and a heavy sweatshirt and I'm still cold. Inside. I will NOT turn that furnace on.

Thanks, sullivan. I never knew what those snow pellets were called. Graulpel. Word of the day. I'm going to go bake some more stuff and heat the house up!
43. sullivanweather
5:21 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Got some snow/rain/graupel this morning.

Trace of snow on 5/19?!?

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
42. TheRasberryPatch
5:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
what a miserable day outside today. cold, windy and some light sprinkles.
the low this morning was 46
so far the high is 54
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
41. JDinWPA
4:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Hello Bliz. It bottomed at 37.9 here last night.
40. JDinWPA
2:42 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
Good evening Bliz. .18" of rain today, current temp 44. Stay warm!
39. Zachary Labe
10:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
***New weekly formatted blog, coming tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
38. Zachary Labe
9:26 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
JDinWPA- Local geography can play a major role in a small areas climate. Also I have noticed many pea sized hail reports coming in out your way.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
37. JDinWPA
6:50 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Hi Bliz. Slow weekend on the blogs. With the line of storms that is going through here at the moment, there was some almost pea-sized hail for about a minute. Lots of wind, no lightening and little rain. Of course, the line started breaking up when it got to my house. I've always wondered if living so close to Lake Auther doesn't effect my weather a bit. Have a good afternoon!
36. Zachary Labe
5:22 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
A weak line of low-topped thunderstorms is moving off Lake Erie. Pea sized hail has already been reported in areas near Erie.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
35. Zachary Labe
2:01 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
For today I am going against what the SPC has to say and I am going to forecast no severe thunderstorms today in Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
34. JDinWPA
2:04 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
Snow around here in the latter half of May is just not right! I'll find time tomorrow to cover the strawberry blossoms and to pull what plants I have out in closer to heat retaining areas. It won't hurt. This is a good example of why you should always wait to move heat loving plants out. No matter how nice April is. Oh well... what can you do about the weather? Thanks. Stay warm.
33. Zachary Labe
1:15 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
JDinWPA- Good evening!!! Quiet night here on the blogs. You are right, cloud cover and wind will inhibit strong radational cooling. But the cold-air aloft moving in is quite significant so I think mid 30s are not out of the question for your area with temperatures in the low 30s just to your north. Snow chances are even out for areas near Bradford.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
32. JDinWPA
1:09 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
Hi Bliz. We just got clipped by the storm front that just went through. It was stronger than the first, it actually had some lightening. But... still, not that strong.

Today -
High 62
low 39
.3" rain

What's your opinion on how low the temp will drop on Monday? From what I can gather, it seems that here there will be enough cloud cover to keep it above freezing, probably no lower than upper 30s. I hope.
31. Zachary Labe
1:06 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
Tomorrow's chance of severe weather...



SPC AC 171732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO NRN GA/PARTS OF NRN AL/MS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND WSWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN GA.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO PARTS OF NRN AL/MS WHERE MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 500 J/KG
GIVEN GREATER SURFACE MOISTURE THAN EXPECTED FARTHER E. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO PROGRESSIVE OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE STRONGEST FROM PA SWD TO THE CAROLINAS... SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...STRONG/GENERALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY STRONGER LINE
SEGMENTS
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
30. Zachary Labe
1:01 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
Tornado warning out for central New York State. Spotters are reporting a lowering wall cloud. Be on the lookout for this unexpected potential tornado in New York State.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
29. Zachary Labe
12:54 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
Two hail reports coming in out of northwestern Pennsylvania.

2010 88 WATERFORD ERIE PA 4195 7999 (CLE)

2105 75 8 S LINESVILLE CRAWFORD PA 4154 8042 HAIL LASTED 10 MINUTES (CLE
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
28. Zachary Labe
12:51 AM GMT on May 18, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
842 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

PAZ027-028-050-056-180115-
JUNIATA-MIFFLIN-PERRY-SNYDER-
842 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA...
NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN...NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHERN SNYDER
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 840 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM REEDS GAP
STATE PARK TO MILROY TO REEDSVILLE TO BELLEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 51
MPH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL BETWEEN PEA...AND DIME SIZE IN
DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A 10 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SOME SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SNYDER-MIDDLESWARTH STATE PARK AROUND 850
PM...BEAVER SPRINGS AROUND 855 PM...BEAVERTOWN AROUND 900 PM...
THOMPSONTOWN AROUND 905 PM...MEISERVILLE AROUND 910 PM AND LIVERPOOL
AROUND 915 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 322/22...
ROUTE 522.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
27. Zachary Labe
11:23 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Strong thunderstorm moving southeast from Indiana County into Cambria County.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
26. Zachary Labe
11:18 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Look at how cold Monday is forecast to be...

(Note these are 850 temps. not surface temps, but none the less it sure is cold.)

Even a chance of snow mentioned in northwestern PA from the NWS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
RESULT...POSSIBLY EVEN MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUN NGT OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
25. Zachary Labe
11:08 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
644 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

PAZ006-010>012-172330-
CAMERON-ELK-NORTHERN CLINTON-POTTER-
644 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMERON...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...
SOUTH CENTRAL POTTER AND SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 643 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM EMPORIUM
TO TRUMAN TO FORCE...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL BETWEEN PEA AND DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. A 10 MINUTE PERIOD VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM
THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY
FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR EMPORIUM...MEDIX RUN...AND BENEZETTE AROUND
650 PM...HICKS RUN...AND CAMERON AROUND 655 PM...DRIFTWOOD AROUND 700
PM...STEVENSON DAM AROUND 705 PM...KETTLE CREEK STATE PARK AROUND 710
PM...CROSS FORK AND AND TAMARACK AROUND 720 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE ROAD 120.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
24. Zachary Labe
10:40 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Interesting bowing segment in the squall line near Saint Marys in Elk County.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
23. Zachary Labe
10:36 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

OHZ040-041-049-050-PAZ014-020-021-029-WVZ001-002-172330-
ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA
OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-JEFFERSON OH-WASHINGTON PA-
623 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

COLUMBIANA...HARRISON...JEFFERSON...CARROLL...WASHINGTON...
ALLEGHENY...BEAVER...BUTLER...BROOKE AND HANCOCK...

AT 624 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
WEST OF FOMBELL TO CHESTER TO 6 MILES WEST OF RICHMOND...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE BY 645 PM...AND AFFECT THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
BY 715 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
22. Zachary Labe
10:31 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

PAZ010-011-172245-
CAMERON-ELK-
612 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELK AND NORTHWESTERN CAMERON
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 609 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM KANE TO
WILCOX TO PORTLAND MILLS...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR RIDGWAY AROUND 620 PM...ST. MARYS AROUND
625 PM AND ELK RIVER AROUND 635 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...STATE
ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
21. Zachary Labe
9:49 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

PAZ007-008-013-014-172215-
BUTLER PA-LAWRENCE PA-MERCER PA-VENANGO PA-
529 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...BUTLER...VENANGO...MERCER AND LAWRENCE...

AT 527 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEW WILMINGTON...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
CHICORA...CLINTONVILLE...EAU CLAIRE...EMLENTON AND KERRS CORNERS

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
20. Zachary Labe
9:31 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
A squall line is beginning to form in northwestern Pennsylvania with a few severe thunderstorm warnings. Now the radar may look sort of weak with the line as DBZs are low, but the storms are low-topped due to the little CAPE in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
19. Zachary Labe
9:22 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
516 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

PAC039-172130-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080517T2130Z/
CRAWFORD PA-
516 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEADVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 43 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4148 8013 4149 8043 4149 8047 4149 8052
4160 8052 4160 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 269DEG 38KT 4154 8023
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
17. Zachary Labe
8:23 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

OHZ011>014-023-089-PAZ001>003-172130-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.NOW...
AT 420 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR CLEVELAND
NORTHEAST TO CHARDON AND INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA NEAR
EDINBORO. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
16. Zachary Labe
8:08 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
At 4:05pm a strong thunderstorm was indicated moving southeast from Erie County into Crawford County. The storm is currently located over Edinboro. Echo tops are maxed out at around 20,000ft in the cell so hail is possible.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
15. charlesimages
8:08 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Aww, well hopefully you'll get a clearing! I am hoping that there is some sort of outflow ahead of my line of showers. I doubt it, but I will be ready if there is/
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
14. Zachary Labe
8:02 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
charlesimages- Thanks. I do not think any pictures though as cloud cover precludes my chances of seeing any interesting thunderstorm cloud formations.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
13. charlesimages
8:00 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Hey B92! Hope you get some storms today =) Hope you are able to get pictures as well!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
12. Zachary Labe
8:00 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
JDinWPA- Good afternoon!!! Well there are still some more storms coming off the lakes with severe hail being reported in parts of southern Canada just within the last hour on the north shore of Lake Erie. So keep watching the radar.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
11. JDinWPA
7:56 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Hi Bliz. Some storms just went through here. Nothing impressive, no real wind, no thunder; just some heavy rain for 15 - 20 minutes. Now the sun's out.

Did I mention that we got .32" yesterday? I must forget to always send the info through because my 30 day total is 3.58". Stay dry!
10. Zachary Labe
7:53 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
stormdude77- I would love to send rain your way. I am tired of this pattern of cool and wet. I want a full day of sunshine for once.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
9. stormdude77
7:51 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Hello Blizzard...just pasing through...hope you're having a great day!

PS: Send me some rain, please!!!
8. Zachary Labe
7:46 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Some storms firing up coming off the lakes...

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
7. Zachary Labe
5:52 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
12z soundings not too impressive at all at Pittsburgh...

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
6. Zachary Labe
5:39 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
April I just saw went down as the 29th coldest on record in the United States.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
5. Zachary Labe
5:09 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
A pea sized hail report just occured on the north side of Lake Erie in Canada. So already thunderstorms are forming along the front.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
4. Zachary Labe
4:06 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
The last 30days of precipitation...


Note the 10inches in Fulton County (southcentral Pennsylvania).
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3. sullivanweather
4:00 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
Out of curiosity, I added up my precip totals for this year.

23.46" thus far.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
2. Zachary Labe
3:46 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
sullivanweather- Wow, yes it has been a pretty wet year in the east. Some areas in the Laural Highlands are well over 6inches for the month of May so far. They suffer greatly from oragraphic lift. It is always interesting to see the radar estimates, because it is easy to take note of the mountainous regions. The widespread mountains make Pennsylvania one of the harder areas to forecast across the US, especially here in eastern Pennsylvania where mountains can completely disapate a storm before it gets here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
1. sullivanweather
3:36 PM GMT on May 17, 2008
(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 3.07inches
Yearly Precipitation- 16.73inches


I think we were over 17" here by the end of March!

Damn Catskills and its orographic enhancement...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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