400pm on the storms...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:35 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

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Long Term Outlook
Well good morning and Merry Christmas. It seems many of the forecast models are predicting a major storm for the first couple days of January and some models are even predicting snow for the 31st of December, which is also something to watch. Well one thing is for sure it appears a extremely frigid arctic airmass is going to move south for the first week of December. If some of the models are right then it is cold enough to snow in places like Austin, Texas. Check out this model run for January 2.
GFS 06z run...
Wow that is cold. The -10degree line is all the way to the gulf coast. And look at that high over Utah, 1056mb, that would create horrible and record breaking Santa Anna winds. With this extreme contrast in temperatures something is bound to develop somewhere. Now the 06z run of the gfs does not have the coastal low like previous runs, it does have a blob of heavy precipition of the southeast coast. Also this model shows heavy lake effect snow stretching all the way to Tennessee. This all is the perfect set up for something big to happen. The ingredients are there except for the NAO.
Todays NAO...
Dec. 25 NAO...
Also for my last morning thought, did anyone check out the NAM. It shows the coastal low a little closer to the coast. It even prints out .25inch-.5inch of the cape of MA. That would probably be mostly rain, though. The 0degree celcius line is too far north for any parts of MA to see all snow.

**Update as of 1230pm
Well the new 12z gfs is in and.......well it shows a powerul front moving in across the region with rain on the front end then snow on the back end. No coastal low is shown. But, for the 4 of January it has a major coastal storm, except though it is far out to sea and does not affect anyone. So my take on all of this is that the GFS is confused. I think it senses there will be a powerful storm around New Years. It is getting confused because of this unbelievibly strong arctic air mass moving into to most of the country. Here is the 12z GFS map for January 4...
12z gfs...
I believe there will be a storm somewhere across the country. The air masses are going to collide creating a big storm, whether it is just a strong front, a low that heads up through great lakes, or a coastal low. We do not just yet know. It is still a long ways away. My only worry is that the NAO is becoming neutral or positive. That is one limiting factor of why we might not see a coastal low. La Nina years are strange years. The winters can be hard to predict, but one thing is for sure many La Nina years have created some powerful storms in the past.

**Update as of 400pm
Well I took a look at the 12z run for the EURO model and it shows some interesting things. First it keeps showing the coastal storm for the 26 of December, affecting mainly coastal areas of New England. But it looks like mainly a rain storm. Then it shows a relatively strong coastal low for the 31 of December. Check it out...
EURO model...
Then after that storm it appears for the first week of January storm it has a strong front move through with a low developing on that and heading north. It shows the coastal low being farther west and bringing in some warmer air to some areas instead of all snow. Here is the 12z EURO for January 3...
12z EURO...
So for now I hope everybody has a wonderful Christmas, and I might have an update sometime late tommorrow morning.
Merry Christmas!

***Christmas morning update...
Well this is going to be my one and only update today. I looked at all of the models and the all agree on a coastal low for this week especially thursday. The NAM prints out more precipitation for inland areas while the gfs keeps it a little more out to see. This storm will be interesting to watch, there could be a surprise or two before this storm is said and done. This weekend all of the models agree on a rain storm for saturday. Then for the 31st there is some disagreement. The EURO develops a coastal low and brings snow to many areas, while the GFS brings a storm through the Carolinas and out to sea delivering a little snow for areas north of Baltimore and south of State College. The NWS for my area says their gut feeling is a storm will head farthur west with everybody getting rain. Remember there is no real cold air during the time of this possible storm. Here is the 0z EURO for the 31st...
EURO 0z run...
Also the for the first week of January the models all agree on a large arctic outbreak, but there a lot of disagreements about a large storm next week. So we will have to wait and see.
Also I just checked and the 12z NAM comes in with .1inch-.25inch of precipitation over the state of Pennsylvania for Thursday's wave and it shows the 0degree line at the mason-dixon line. This maybe something to watch for a inch or two of snow across the state of Pennsylvania for Thursday.
Also I updated the NAO above and as you can see it goes slightly negative around the 1st of January, then it goes highly positive.
Have a wonderful day and Merry Christmas!

**Update as of 400pm...
Quick update. Well the 12z run on the EURO shows only rain for the middle atlantic for the 31st, but it still maintains the arctic airmass. Also the 18z run on the NAM prints out moderate precipitation over the middle atlantic coast line for the 26th storm. And it shows a wave bringing .1-.25inch of precipitation over Pennsylvania. That would probably be snow or a mix of rain/snow. That will be something to watch for maybe a surprise inch of snow over PA. Though the NWS's seem to think it will all be rain, even in the north. We will have to watch it.

Check back shortly, this blog is in progress...

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85. MDFirefighter
3:28 AM GMT on December 26, 2007
18z run of the GFS has snow back in the MD/PA area for the 31st :D
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
84. MDFirefighter
5:13 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
these models are attempting to ruin my Christmas lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
83. charlesimages
3:15 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
MERRY CHRISTMAS B92!!! Hope you get snow going into 2008 too!!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
82. Zachary Labe
3:13 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
Somebody just might see a dusting of snow along the gulf coast with this arctic blast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
81. aquak9
2:19 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
Thank you, B92. In a way, I'd love to see a dusting of snow, but it would shut my city down!

Great blog, enjoy your day.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25866
80. Zachary Labe
2:14 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
I actually do think you will see some cold. Not record breaking cold but you may see highs in the 50's and lows in some spots below freezing. If the models hold true then this will be quite an arctic outbreaking with a modified cold air mass stretching to the gulf coast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
79. aquak9
2:11 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
G'morning and Merry Christmas, B92. Do you think that cold weather will make it all the way to NorthEast Florida? I gotta ask...we so rarely see much cold anywmore down here.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25866
78. Zachary Labe
2:09 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
I hope this December 31st storm is a snow maker. The models all seem to think so, but the NWS's don't think so.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. MDFirefighter
11:01 AM GMT on December 25, 2007
These models kill me lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
76. dean2007
11:47 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
I do to cchamp1.
75. cchamp6
11:36 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
I want to wake up tomm. and find out that we are going to get an old fashioned blizzard here in the northest. Any time in the next 5-7 days and I would be happy. No rain snow line or mix crap to deal with. A cut off blizzard. Winds between 40- 60 mph and snow of around 24-36 inches would work. Paralyze everyone for a good week. Ahhhhh, doesnt that sound nice.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
74. dean2007
10:41 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Link
Classic east coast storm setup on Accuweather.com. Note that the snow extends northeastward not northward.
73. dean2007
10:18 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
18z NAM throws a different twist. the NAM model is very aggressive with the low on the 26th throwing cold air below 32 degrees into the storm with 3-5" the most for snow. These type of storms are the toughest as December 26th 2004 a quick moving storm dumped over a foot of snow to southern TX and moved towards New Orleans bringing 1" to LA and then went up the coast on the 26th. This storm raced to the northeast and dumped 18 inches of snow on Brewster, MA and 16" on Harwich, MA. Storms like these are forecasting nightmares. A little slight deviation from its track can mean a lot of different scenarios.
72. cchamp6
9:33 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Just reading what your saying about the NWS. I wrote a little blog about mine earlier today, check it out and comment please.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
71. Zachary Labe
9:24 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
So there is no chance in a farthur west track with the coastal low??
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
70. Zachary Labe
9:23 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Well I guess there will be other snowstorms.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
69. dean2007
9:21 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
What about Cape Cod, MA? How much rain sully?
68. sullivanweather
9:18 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
SREF model has SE pennsylvania in the 0.10" spread.

I wouldn't discount it.

Will it get as far west as Harrisburg?? doubt it

Will it be snow?? doubt that as well.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
67. Zachary Labe
9:14 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
sullivanweather- Is there any chance this coastal low in 2 or 3 days could track farthur west and give some precipitation to southeast pennsylvania?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
66. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Yes, it will be funny. My NWS completely got rid of the GFS for the forecasts, and now all of its originally outlandish ideas are coming true.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
65. Zachary Labe
9:07 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
When the EURO and GFS both agree on something, like the agree on the cold for next week. Then confindence is much higher that something like the cold could happen.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. sullivanweather
9:06 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
So funny how the GFS was tossed out the window as an outlier, now seems to be the correct solution (for the mini-coastal in 2-3 days)

The EURO is now showing a snowstorm for the interior on the 30/31st...

My how the tables have turned...
It'll be funny to read the local forecast discussions later...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
63. Zachary Labe
9:04 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
My NWS is forecasting highs near 50 for next Monday. I think this is a little high. My NWS always seems to forecast things a little warmer than what it turns out to be. LOL.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
62. MDFirefighter
9:00 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
nice update Blizzard. looks like the Euro 00z has mostly rain for the Mid-Atlantic, but then changing over to snow in the 12z. Should be interesting.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
61. Zachary Labe
8:58 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Very right, the GFS has to be overdoing the cold air.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. sullivanweather
8:57 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
This is something to take notice...

I mean, usually the GFS predicts these outlandish arctic outbreaks. The Euro model now?? That's definitely something...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
59. MDFirefighter
8:55 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
lol yeah really. someone get me some odds for snow in Vegas :P lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
58. sullivanweather
8:54 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Even the 0C isotherm is all the way down to the southern tip of Baja and well offshore southern Cali.

Man, if this happens again could this be 2 straight years of killing freezes in SoCal?

Better buy some broccoli and lettuce...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
57. MDFirefighter
8:52 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
exactly lol. that would be nuts
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
56. sullivanweather
8:50 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
hmmm...how often does one see 850mb temps down to -10C in Phoenix?? LOL
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
55. MDFirefighter
8:46 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
When is the 12z EURO going to come out?

It already came out, but the site I'm looking at, only has it up to the 240hr. That's 1200 on the 3rd.

Euro Model
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
54. MDFirefighter
7:51 PM GMT on December 24, 2007




If that holds, the "inland" Carolinas will see some pretty decent snow totals
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
53. Zachary Labe
7:22 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
When is the 12z EURO going to come out?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
52. Zachary Labe
7:19 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
It seems like every year is either La Nina or El Nina
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
51. dean2007
7:18 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
When its neutral.
50. Zachary Labe
7:18 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
These El Nino and La Nino years always seem to be around anymore. When can it just be a normal year?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
49. dean2007
7:17 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Yes a weak to nuetral. Sullivanweather told me that, I think.
48. Zachary Labe
7:15 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Was that an El Nino year?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
47. dean2007
7:14 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
That storm was one of a kind in a weak El Nino.
46. MDFirefighter
7:12 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
i'd gladly take 8 inches of snow right now lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
45. Zachary Labe
7:12 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Wow, I remember hearing about that storm. I only got about 8inches of snow, but some people to my southeast got 20inches.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
44. MDFirefighter
7:10 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Ok... go to http://www.nysthruway.gov/webcams and click the camera by Hamburg
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
43. dean2007
7:09 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
No luck MD. Blizzard, our last snowstorm that brought over 12" was in 2005, the Blizzard of 2005. Man was that a beauty. 35 inches of wind driven snow in winds over 75mph. That was awesome. No other snowstorm I have witnesed here on Cape Cod, MA 18 years have I seen anything so spectacular and destructive to traffic. Another little storm brought another 3-6 inches, less then what forecasters had. That winter it just wanted to continue to snow here on Cape Cod, MA and the eastern MA coastal locations.
42. MDFirefighter
7:05 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
41. Zachary Labe
7:03 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
I wish for another another big snowstorm. My last snowstorm over a foot was back in 2003 with the president's day snowstorm. We saw about 27inches total. Then a couple days later we got another little snowstorm. If i remember our total by the end of the week was just over 30inches.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
40. dean2007
7:01 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
The image didn't show.
39. MDFirefighter
7:01 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
I'd gladly take this........

Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
38. dean2007
6:59 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
I don't know but boston's is 40", so we get less, esp last year. The winter seasons here run in three likely patterns: dry, and cold - dry and warm, or snowy and normal/warmer
37. Zachary Labe
6:59 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Isn't cape cod usually in the rain/snow line? What is your average snowfall?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
36. MDFirefighter
6:58 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
What about us here on Cape Cod, MA? We had a snowstorm, that brought 6" of snow which turned to sleet then rain and then another storm brought 4" and then rain, so slop developed.

better than rain lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
35. dean2007
6:57 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
What about us here on Cape Cod, MA? We had a snowstorm, that brought 6" of snow which turned to sleet then rain and then another storm brought 4" and then rain, so slop developed.

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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