Approach of the Climatological Fall

By: Zachary Labe , 12:10 AM GMT on August 20, 2014

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61. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:16 PM GMT on November 25, 2014
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
60. TheRasberryPatch
11:15 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Welcome back Blizz. I guess this semester has been a lot of work.

Amazing we have a nor'easter snowstorm this early. I wonder if the lack of cold air in the region right now will have any effect on the snow accumulating.
It was a beautifully warm day today.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
59. Zachary Labe
9:13 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Quoting 58. originalLT:

Hi Blizz, reading round the internet, people have been saying that the models are trending a bit East, well the ECMWF anyways. I don't think it matters too much. Elevation will matter a lot here and of course being a bit more NW of the low's center will help snowfall accuses. I'm looking for a trace to 2" for me in Stamford CT. I'm about 3.5miles inland from the Long Island Sound, at about 160ft elevation. We have about 23 people coming over for Thanksgiving, some from Vernon Valley NW NJ. They may have 4-8" up there, but I think they'll make it here. They know how to take care of the roads up there. Well, we'll see. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving with your family.

Yeah, it does not matter too much really. Forecast is pretty set for most locations. Lack of cold air at the surface and rapid speed of precipitation prevents this from being widespread snows for I-95 on eastward. I'll have more later.

Thanks and enjoy your Thanksgiving!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
58. originalLT
9:02 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Hi Blizz, reading round the internet, people have been saying that the models are trending a bit East, well the ECMWF anyways. I don't think it matters too much. Elevation will matter a lot here and of course being a bit more NW of the low's center will help snowfall amounts. I'm looking for a trace to 2" for me in Stamford CT. I'm about 3.5miles inland from the Long Island Sound, at about 160ft elevation. We have about 23 people coming over for Thanksgiving, some from Vernon Valley NW NJ. They may have 4-8" up there, but I think they'll make it here. They know how to take care of the roads up there. Well, we'll see. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving with your family.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
57. Zachary Labe
8:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Lol at CTP being the last to issue watches!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
56. Rittenhouse
4:06 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Quoting 54. Blizzard92:

12z GFS is out and a touch warmer as the H85 low tracks a bit more northwest. This setup is likely too warm for coastal areas and even most of I-95 to see significant snowfall. However, this is a very favorable setup for inland locations. Model consensus is certainly growing in addition to forecast confidence.


Thanks! This seems to be the consensus right now.
Member Since: October 27, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
55. bwi
3:58 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Quoting 52. Blizzard92:

Heading home Tuesday night just in time for Harrisburg's first major winter storm of the year!


Safe travels, and have a great (and hopefully snowy) holiday!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
54. Zachary Labe
3:47 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
12z GFS is out and a touch warmer as the H85 low tracks a bit more northwest. This setup is likely too warm for coastal areas and even most of I-95 to see significant snowfall. However, this is a very favorable setup for inland locations. Model consensus is certainly growing in addition to forecast confidence.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
53. Zachary Labe
3:22 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
I'll be making two snow maps (one today and one tomorrow afternoon). Additionally, I will hopefully be able to post a new blog later today (post 5pm).

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
52. Zachary Labe
2:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2014
Heading home Tuesday night just in time for Harrisburg's first major winter storm of the year!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
51. Walshy
2:40 AM GMT on November 24, 2014
Something like this would be nice and more believable. 2000 November Storm

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
50. Walshy
2:37 AM GMT on November 24, 2014
Hazardous weather outlook for snow/sleet down in Wilkesboro, North Carolina. Hoping for some light accumulations...not buying these maps showing 6" or more in November!
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
49. TheF1Man
3:12 PM GMT on November 23, 2014
Zach, any thoughts on the Wednesday storm?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
48. zotty
2:46 AM GMT on November 17, 2014
Quoting 47. Helenann2k:

Hi! I haven't been here since last Spring. Did Zach stop blogging? Where are all the Blizz followers posting and hanging out these days? Thanks! (Dutchess County, NY)


Usually pcroton's blog. It appears some readers have taken it over while P is away for the weekend and burned his blog to the ground deep frying a turkey.
Try it tomorrow (Monday) and it should be back to our view of normal. 😋
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
47. Helenann2k
2:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2014
Hi! I haven't been here since last Spring. Did Zach stop blogging? Where are all the Blizz followers posting and hanging out these days? Thanks! (Dutchess County, NY)
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
46. TheRasberryPatch
8:52 PM GMT on November 13, 2014
36F at the moment with temps falling and light snow showers here in South Central PA. First flakes of the season.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
45. PhillySnow
1:00 PM GMT on November 11, 2014
Quoting 44. listenerVT:

We have snow in the forecast at last! It's been raining since about 2:45pm, which will change over to snow tonight and snow all day tomorrow. But it's to come down lightly. A foot in the mountains but just a few inches here in the valley. I'm looking forward to it!
Hi Listener! Did you get that snow? We've got the "s" word in our forecast for the first time this season. Possibly, maybe, could be a little bit Friday morning. At least it's getting cold enough - finally!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1270
44. listenerVT
1:58 AM GMT on November 07, 2014
We have snow in the forecast at last! It's been raining since about 2:45pm, which will change over to snow tonight and snow all day tomorrow. But it's to come down lightly. A foot in the mountains but just a few inches here in the valley. I'm looking forward to it!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
43. TheRasberryPatch
10:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2014
Quoting 42. tlawson48:

No freeze either for Southern Maine, growing season in Portland is at 194 days and couting (average is 158).


Wow, that is amazing no freeze yet in Southern Maine. We've come close here in south central PA. Looks like it will be a bit longer.
A beautiful day today. Trying to get most of the outside ready for the end of Autumn and Winter
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
42. tlawson48
1:13 PM GMT on November 03, 2014
No freeze either for Southern Maine, growing season in Portland is at 194 days and couting (average is 158).
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383
41. TheRasberryPatch
1:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2014
Hello Listener. I can't say I see what you are seeing. But I really dislike the way they have set up these blogs. I would prefer to see the box to comment at the bottom of the latest post. Also, I liked that on the main page we could see when the latest post for someone's blog. Now we have to go to the blog page. UGH

We were supposed to have a freeze last night, but I guess the winds didn't decouple. No killing freeze or frost here, yet
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
39. listenerVT
4:27 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
Hurrah, I finally got in again.  Is anyone else often seeing a 2007 post at the top of the page instead of this one?
Anyway, we are still running warmer than usual, as we had a rosebud in the garden when I went out there yesterday!  It's the end of October in NW VT and still no killing frost in my yard.  I don't remember this happening before. I also still had a Bluebell, Yarrow and Sedum, as well as Pansies going strong!  Amazing!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
34. originalLT
7:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
Welcome aboard, Rittenhouse.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
33. Rittenhouse
6:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
And on the fifth day, the 12z GFS said... Let there be winter!
Member Since: October 27, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
32. Rittenhouse
6:50 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
And on the fifth day, the 12z GFS said... Let there be winter!
Member Since: October 27, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
30. georgevandenberghe
11:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2014
Quoting 29. listenerVT:

Hi Blizz!
I've been having trouble seeing your page; often seeing a Winter post from 2007 at the top of your page!
I hope all is well. 

We've been having a gorgeous Autumn in NW VT.


I can't complain about the season in the DC area either. But Autumn has been my favorite season for twenty years.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2183
29. listenerVT
3:34 AM GMT on October 22, 2014
Hi Blizz!
I've been having trouble seeing your page; often seeing a Winter post from 2007 at the top of your page!
I hope all is well. 

We've been having a gorgeous Autumn in NW VT.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
28. anduril
3:55 AM GMT on October 16, 2014
Quoting 27. originalLT:

Yup, anduril, and that's what coming towards me in SW CT. for very late tonight, and tomorrow!
At times it was torrential. Beyond that, pretty boring. no thunder or anything tornadic. noticed a couple cells down in maryland that went warned. Power flickered a few times in some areas but nothing that impressive beyond the rain
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
27. originalLT
1:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2014
Yup, anduril, and that's what coming towards me in SW CT. for very late tonight, and tomorrow!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
26. anduril
1:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2014
Going to be a wet, wet day in PA
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
25. TheRasberryPatch
11:04 PM GMT on October 03, 2014
Hey Blizz. I hope your school work is going well. Just wanted to let you know this weekend and next is the National Apple Harvest Festival.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
24. georgevandenberghe
5:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2014
Quoting 23. bwi:



It's quite interesting to me that we're already seeing some coastal and gulf of mexico lows moving up the eastern seaboard. With a continued cool pattern, maybe that portends a storm winter? (I know probably not connected at all, but still there's hope...)


This is normal for September. As soon as we can get a cool dry airmass in which then gets overrun we are susceptible to damming and coastal fronts. Synoptic scale troughs also start digging deep into the Midwest sometime in September setting up a Gulf to New England storm track.

Although memories are dimming, this past winter was truly remarkable for devastating destruction of plant species that are normally hardy here in the middle atlantic region and much further north. What I think did it was the long period temperature swings. There were some significant warm spells in between the arctic outbreaks and in particular, warmth in late February caused some plants to begin breaking dormancy only to be nailed by record cold in March. I also had much less insect pressure than usual in the garden this summer; cabbage white butterflies in particular were almost absent until August and are only at about a third of the usual population I see in fall on my broccoli.

Synoptic analysts should also note much of our (very substantial) snow this winter came behind just after cold fronts as the cold air came in. This is unusual. The majority of our snow comes from either overrunning with warm fronts or the Cold Conveyor belt of coastal systems.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2183
23. bwi
8:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



August was cool in the DC area. September has been very typical for here.




It's quite interesting to me that we're already seeing some coastal and gulf of mexico lows moving up the eastern seaboard. With a continued cool pattern, maybe that portends a storm winter? (I know probably not connected at all, but still there's hope...)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
22. listenerVT
3:54 AM GMT on September 24, 2014
Quoting 20. tanda35:

Thanks Listener,
I viewed that web site you posted the link on, nice information. I will check on it while I am up there, but I guess 400 some miles from Delaware isn't going to make much of a difference in Latitude for viewing the Aurora.
I too, in 1983 or so, saw it up in northern Maine on a motorcycle trip up to Baxter State park for rafting on the Penobscot. I will never forget that, either, but I am itching to see it again.
Thanks.


We saw it in 1983 also! We were living near the Canadian border then, and saw the Aurora several times that Winter.

Like you, I am eager to see it again. I have no love of traveling, but would consider a jaunt to Norway to see the Northen Lights in all their glory!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
21. georgevandenberghe
1:51 AM GMT on September 24, 2014
Quoting 19. bwi:

Good evening Blizz -- I hope you're having a fun and interesting summer. I just felt like saying hello after a long absence, since the weather in the mid-atlantic feels so fall-like so early. I guess it's reminding me to look forward to winter weather tracking already.


August was cool in the DC area. September has been very typical for here.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2183
20. tanda35
12:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2014
Thanks Listener,
I viewed that web site you posted the link on, nice information. I will check on it while I am up there, but I guess 400 some miles from Delaware isn't going to make much of a difference in Latitude for viewing the Aurora.
I too, in 1983 or so, saw it up in northern Maine on a motorcycle trip up to Baxter State park for rafting on the Penobscot. I will never forget that, either, but I am itching to see it again.
Thanks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
19. bwi
2:12 AM GMT on September 20, 2014
Good evening Blizz -- I hope you're having a fun and interesting summer. I just felt like saying hello after a long absence, since the weather in the mid-atlantic feels so fall-like so early. I guess it's reminding me to look forward to winter weather tracking already.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
17. listenerVT
4:29 AM GMT on September 16, 2014
Quoting 16. tanda35:

I am traveling up to central New Hampshire soon and was wondering if the Aurora Borealis is visible from that latitude or would I have to be farther north? I will be in the lakes region, Squam lake (On Golden Pond). Thanks.


It is possible but not likely. We had a 6 and even 7 level magnetic storm this past weekend, and nothing was seen from there. The folks atop Mount Washington saw it great. Few others. It was also seen from Danville, Vermont and some places in Maine. But it's very hit or miss, depends on vantage point and cloud cover, and just plain luck. If you click here: http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm, it takes you to the site which tells the *current* Kp level. A 7 Kp level can theoretically be seen from the top of Massachusetts northward; even a 6 could be good viewing from Squam Lake. (I've stayed there before!] If you scroll down on the site linked, there's a map of the Kp levels.

I have lived in Vermont for over 30 years and have seen the Aurora at least 5 times. Once, on 8 November 1991, it covered the entire dome of the sky! Amazing!! One could comprehend how ancient civilizations thought the world was coming to an end. The Aurora was seen all the way to Texas that night!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
16. tanda35
3:14 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
I am traveling up to central New Hampshire soon and was wondering if the Aurora Borealis is visible from that latitude or would I have to be farther north? I will be in the lakes region, Squam lake (On Golden Pond). Thanks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
15. HurrikanEB
4:19 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
Thanks for the links, Zack!
It'll be interesting to see how the Autumn severe weather period progresses. As of current, this year's tornado count is well below normal.


Interesting to compare this years geographical distribution to 2011's. . . really reveals a lack of storms across the eastern third of the US:



Pretty strong correlation with the cooler air that's been in place over those parts of the nation:


Hopefully the cooler side sticks around for winter.
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1344
14. listenerVT
11:47 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
A strong (7) magnetic storm is possible! The watch begins at 8:01pm tonight. A 7 means Northern Lights can be seen as far south as northern Massachusetts, northern Pennsylvania, northern Ohio and right through the middle of Iowa! I hope the skies are clear Friday night. If you can find a place to see north without city lights, it could be amazing. Best time to view is 11pm to 3am, so take a nap!
Here in NW VT, we may even see some (6) tonight. We're certainly going to go have a look, since here we can see from 5 on up! The link below is where to monitor updates.
http://www.softservenews.com/en/aurora-borealis-b reaking-news/moderate-solar-storm-aurora-display-p ossible-news300039.html
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
13. ThePoetSirrah
3:35 PM GMT on September 07, 2014
84 days till the start of (climatological) winter!

Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
12. originalLT
1:04 AM GMT on September 07, 2014
TRP, similar for me in Stamford CT. My Shields were up!. Did get one storm that broke through with frequent lightning and 0.41" of rain in less than one hour, but saw on RADAR much bigger and stronger cells passing me by to my North and South.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
11. TheRasberryPatch
12:46 AM GMT on September 07, 2014
Another front comes and falls apart over my area. There were some strong storms all around, but for some reason there is a shield keeping the rain away. Some areas close by had flash flood warnings and we even had a severe thunderstorm warning, but nothing
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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