Approach of the Climatological Fall

By: Zachary Labe , 12:10 AM GMT on August 20, 2014

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24. georgevandenberghe
5:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2014
Quoting 23. bwi:



It's quite interesting to me that we're already seeing some coastal and gulf of mexico lows moving up the eastern seaboard. With a continued cool pattern, maybe that portends a storm winter? (I know probably not connected at all, but still there's hope...)


This is normal for September. As soon as we can get a cool dry airmass in which then gets overrun we are susceptible to damming and coastal fronts. Synoptic scale troughs also start digging deep into the Midwest sometime in September setting up a Gulf to New England storm track.

Although memories are dimming, this past winter was truly remarkable for devastating destruction of plant species that are normally hardy here in the middle atlantic region and much further north. What I think did it was the long period temperature swings. There were some significant warm spells in between the arctic outbreaks and in particular, warmth in late February caused some plants to begin breaking dormancy only to be nailed by record cold in March. I also had much less insect pressure than usual in the garden this summer; cabbage white butterflies in particular were almost absent until August and are only at about a third of the usual population I see in fall on my broccoli.

Synoptic analysts should also note much of our (very substantial) snow this winter came behind just after cold fronts as the cold air came in. This is unusual. The majority of our snow comes from either overrunning with warm fronts or the Cold Conveyor belt of coastal systems.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1867
23. bwi
8:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



August was cool in the DC area. September has been very typical for here.




It's quite interesting to me that we're already seeing some coastal and gulf of mexico lows moving up the eastern seaboard. With a continued cool pattern, maybe that portends a storm winter? (I know probably not connected at all, but still there's hope...)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1389
22. listenerVT
3:54 AM GMT on September 24, 2014
Quoting 20. tanda35:

Thanks Listener,
I viewed that web site you posted the link on, nice information. I will check on it while I am up there, but I guess 400 some miles from Delaware isn't going to make much of a difference in Latitude for viewing the Aurora.
I too, in 1983 or so, saw it up in northern Maine on a motorcycle trip up to Baxter State park for rafting on the Penobscot. I will never forget that, either, but I am itching to see it again.
Thanks.


We saw it in 1983 also! We were living near the Canadian border then, and saw the Aurora several times that Winter.

Like you, I am eager to see it again. I have no love of traveling, but would consider a jaunt to Norway to see the Northen Lights in all their glory!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5516
21. georgevandenberghe
1:51 AM GMT on September 24, 2014
Quoting 19. bwi:

Good evening Blizz -- I hope you're having a fun and interesting summer. I just felt like saying hello after a long absence, since the weather in the mid-atlantic feels so fall-like so early. I guess it's reminding me to look forward to winter weather tracking already.


August was cool in the DC area. September has been very typical for here.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1867
20. tanda35
12:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2014
Thanks Listener,
I viewed that web site you posted the link on, nice information. I will check on it while I am up there, but I guess 400 some miles from Delaware isn't going to make much of a difference in Latitude for viewing the Aurora.
I too, in 1983 or so, saw it up in northern Maine on a motorcycle trip up to Baxter State park for rafting on the Penobscot. I will never forget that, either, but I am itching to see it again.
Thanks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
19. bwi
2:12 AM GMT on September 20, 2014
Good evening Blizz -- I hope you're having a fun and interesting summer. I just felt like saying hello after a long absence, since the weather in the mid-atlantic feels so fall-like so early. I guess it's reminding me to look forward to winter weather tracking already.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1389
17. listenerVT
4:29 AM GMT on September 16, 2014
Quoting 16. tanda35:

I am traveling up to central New Hampshire soon and was wondering if the Aurora Borealis is visible from that latitude or would I have to be farther north? I will be in the lakes region, Squam lake (On Golden Pond). Thanks.


It is possible but not likely. We had a 6 and even 7 level magnetic storm this past weekend, and nothing was seen from there. The folks atop Mount Washington saw it great. Few others. It was also seen from Danville, Vermont and some places in Maine. But it's very hit or miss, depends on vantage point and cloud cover, and just plain luck. If you click here: http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm, it takes you to the site which tells the *current* Kp level. A 7 Kp level can theoretically be seen from the top of Massachusetts northward; even a 6 could be good viewing from Squam Lake. (I've stayed there before!] If you scroll down on the site linked, there's a map of the Kp levels.

I have lived in Vermont for over 30 years and have seen the Aurora at least 5 times. Once, on 8 November 1991, it covered the entire dome of the sky! Amazing!! One could comprehend how ancient civilizations thought the world was coming to an end. The Aurora was seen all the way to Texas that night!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5516
16. tanda35
3:14 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
I am traveling up to central New Hampshire soon and was wondering if the Aurora Borealis is visible from that latitude or would I have to be farther north? I will be in the lakes region, Squam lake (On Golden Pond). Thanks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
15. HurrikanEB
4:19 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
Thanks for the links, Zack!
It'll be interesting to see how the Autumn severe weather period progresses. As of current, this year's tornado count is well below normal.


Interesting to compare this years geographical distribution to 2011's. . . really reveals a lack of storms across the eastern third of the US:



Pretty strong correlation with the cooler air that's been in place over those parts of the nation:


Hopefully the cooler side sticks around for winter.
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1340
14. listenerVT
11:47 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
A strong (7) magnetic storm is possible! The watch begins at 8:01pm tonight. A 7 means Northern Lights can be seen as far south as northern Massachusetts, northern Pennsylvania, northern Ohio and right through the middle of Iowa! I hope the skies are clear Friday night. If you can find a place to see north without city lights, it could be amazing. Best time to view is 11pm to 3am, so take a nap!
Here in NW VT, we may even see some (6) tonight. We're certainly going to go have a look, since here we can see from 5 on up! The link below is where to monitor updates.
http://www.softservenews.com/en/aurora-borealis-b reaking-news/moderate-solar-storm-aurora-display-p ossible-news300039.html
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5516
13. ThePoetSirrah
3:35 PM GMT on September 07, 2014
84 days till the start of (climatological) winter!

Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
12. originalLT
1:04 AM GMT on September 07, 2014
TRP, similar for me in Stamford CT. My Shields were up!. Did get one storm that broke through with frequent lightning and 0.41" of rain in less than one hour, but saw on RADAR much bigger and stronger cells passing me by to my North and South.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7634
11. TheRasberryPatch
12:46 AM GMT on September 07, 2014
Another front comes and falls apart over my area. There were some strong storms all around, but for some reason there is a shield keeping the rain away. Some areas close by had flash flood warnings and we even had a severe thunderstorm warning, but nothing
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
10. TheRasberryPatch
8:25 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
Blizz - the past 2 weeks or so we have storms forming just to the NE of York moving towards Reading. They keep missing South Central. It really is amazing. I watch and hear storms just to my South.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
9. listenerVT
12:42 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Wow, Blizz, I see there was a tornado warning just south of Oneonta. Wicked weather, even here. I just drove home from work in a serious deluge; glad it's only two miles!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5516
8. TheRasberryPatch
12:04 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
George I remember those days well, NO AC elementary schools. It wasn't much different from NO AC homes. I recall many August through the first week or two of September being very warm. People used to vacation at OCMD those weeks because it was still warm and the ocean was perfect. I also remember the snowstorm of Veterans Day. I believe the snow stuck around for a couple of weeks.

The storms the past week have been moving around my house and I am not getting much rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
7. georgevandenberghe
3:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 3. Astrometeor:

Hey Zach! I arrived at my grandparents' house yesterday (Camp Hill, PA) in time for lasagna dinner. Move-in day is Thursday at Millersville. :)

The first time 2" of snow falls, I'm going to be extremely excited.


Look up the DC veterans day snowstorm in 1987 (yes Nov 11! snow up to my knees and I'm 6'5")
I'll post about my experience with it sometime but I'm short of time.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1867
6. georgevandenberghe
3:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
It's been more summerlike in the Mid Atlantic these last few days of August and first few of September. This is not extreme but is a sharp contrast to last half of summer 2014 here this year. Heat with very modest breaks is forecast for the next five or six days, then a substantial break, then we exceed the predictability of today's models.

I do remember a lot of other Septembers this happened even into the last week of the month. 7'th grade September 1970 in my non-AC middle school in Northern VA stands out.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1867
5. listenerVT
3:17 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
anduril…I'm ready! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5516
4. anduril
10:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
Dead quiet on this blog. We need a good snow storm to get the pulse pounding!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
3. Astrometeor
3:33 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Hey Zach! I arrived at my grandparents' house yesterday (Camp Hill, PA) in time for lasagna dinner. Move-in day is Thursday at Millersville. :)

The first time 2" of snow falls, I'm going to be extremely excited.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364
2. TheRasberryPatch
2:22 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
I've been a bit absent from the blog. It's been a busy month for me.

Same August the past few years. Amazing how cool these Augusts have been lately. I wish when I was younger before Air Conditioning we had cool evenings like now.

Blizz - did you ever get in a garden at your Summer place in Cornell? This has been one of my better years for vegetables. My cucumbers are still producing, which is unusual. Normally, they die off by the end of July. My tomatoes have produced really well. Beets, carrots, potatoes, peppers, onions are all doing well. My raspberry's and blackberry's are so tasty. The golden raspberry's are some of the best I have tasted.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
1. listenerVT
2:06 AM GMT on August 20, 2014
Great, Zach! Thanks for posting this!

The irony is that it's going to hit 81F here tomorrow.
But we've had below average temps in NW VT for 7 straight days. And I've been loving it! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5516

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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