Winter Premonitions

By: Zachary Labe , 6:21 PM GMT on July 25, 2014

Share this Blog
5
+

Zachary Labe
25 July 2014
Winter Premonitions

In the land of long-term seasonal weather forecasts, accuracy and skill are two difficult words to define. Forecasting for large time scales is essentially a game of detective work; even though clues may point to one suspect, it probably is not him. Nevertheless, finding these clues requires an interesting approach to understanding the earth's weather and climate. The rossby pattern is one of a continuous wave that amplifies or deamplifies and shifts or retrogrades around our oblate globe. Even looking at the track of typhoons in the western Pacific can tell us a lot about the weather patterns here in the eastern conus.


(Courtesy of CUNY Hunter)

With that all being said, the verdict on seasonal forecasting is one of angst in the meteorological and energy market communities.

Another few weeks have gone by with unimpressive numbers from the Nino 3.4 region and standard SOI readings. Super-El Nino bust? Most likely. It appears a lack of dominant Kelvin wave propogation and continued upwelling off the western South American coastline has resulted in slow warming of sea surface temperatures. While previous memorable El Ninos were also lethargic to function (1998 in particular), there are no dominant clues to suggest that is likely for this upcoming ENSO regime.


Global forecast models favor a moderate Nino to be expected by early winter. This approach seems reasonable. In fact, I would argue a weak Nino is more likely.

Philadelphia, PA
STRONG NINA - 6 WINTERS - 15.9"
MODERATE NINA - 7 WINTERS - 13.8"
WEAK NINA - 7 WINTERS - 23.1"
ENSO NEUTRAL - 22 WINTERS - 22"
WEAK NINO - 5 WINTERS - 28.1"
MODERATE NINO - 8 WINTERS - 24.3"
STRONG NINO - 6 WINTERS - 27"
(Courtesy of Mt. Holly NWS)

Quick statistics above show that El Nino years often correlate to snowier winters on average for Philadelphia. I have made the assumption this is representative for most Middle Atlantic locations. Of course, the ENSO pattern is not the only key player, but at this point in time (yes I know, only July), it is the biggest. Other indices meteorologists love to throw around... PDO, QBO, AMA, NAO (insert another acroynm) also all look favorable for the makings of another snowy winter.

Yes, you heard me right. My non-science based gut tells me a blockbuster snowy winter along with some cold weather is possible. Based on pure observation alone, it seems the global Rossby wave pattern has transitioned little in the last few months. Despite the Polar Vortex media hype from last week, in some aspects they were actually correct. For all intended purposes, the same weather pattern that delivered record January cold, sort of (I use this loosely) brought record July cold. However, the important take from this comparison is that there has been little jet stream shift. Essentially, the cold air is still on our side of the globe and shows no signs of budging in the long term. Once again, another purely observational account, is that I have noticed the position of the dominate PV remains consistent for several years at a time (tell that to Europe during a few winters in the last decade).

So for those keeping score (please don't), my premonition is a rough winter is headed for the eastern half of the contiguous United States. Meanwhile lets not forgot the rest of the world...



Despite few newsworthy heat waves across the Northeast this summer, most all areas are still above normal temperature wise. June will go down as the third consecutive month with record global warmth. The hurricane season also continues to be relatively quiet even after the unnecessary media hype from Hurricane Arthur. My "gut" feeling again suggests a quiet tropical season is to be expected for the rest of 2014. Dr. Jeff Masters has a great blog about this presently (July 25).



The atmosphere is never in steady state. It is in complete chaos allowing weather patterns to easily shift and balance through the jet stream. That is what makes weather forecasting, short and long term, quite difficult and unforgiving. So I guess it is best to roll with the punches until somebody can precisely calculate and code a way to model the ubiquitous atmospheric hydrologic cycle.



Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 50 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

50. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
49. Zachary Labe
7:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2014
I wrote an article for the local news here in Ithaca on a quick summer 2014 summary Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
48. Zachary Labe
6:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2014
3.16" is the final total out of Linglestown, PA
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
47. Zachary Labe
11:51 AM GMT on August 13, 2014
originalLT- I cannot imagine what would happen had the training thunderstorms been positioned just a tad farther west into the NYC metro region. Islip at one point was nearly 5.5" of rain in one hour. This system sure produced quite a bit of rain from flooding in Detroit to Baltimore to Long Island; very impressive!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
46. originalLT
11:47 AM GMT on August 13, 2014
Morning, Zach,Yeah, Long Island, parts anyways, are getting "bombed"! Here in Stamford, our "Rain Shield" is working, only about 1,05" so far. Just missed us to my South and East. Parts of Jersey hit hard too.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
45. Zachary Labe
11:41 AM GMT on August 13, 2014
Not looking good on Long Island... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
44. Zachary Labe
11:37 AM GMT on August 13, 2014
2.99" of rain back home in Linglestown as of 10pm yesterday. Looks like Long Island sure received the heavy rain overnight and this morning (12.84" recorded as ISP so far). An isolated area may receive 15"!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
43. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
1.65" of rain so far back home in Linglestown. Looks like an embedded cell went right over them earlier today causing the isolated high amount.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
42. Zachary Labe
11:46 AM GMT on August 11, 2014
listenerVT- Great picture!

I am back in Ithaca after a great getaway for the week in Ocean City, Maryland. Looks like a more September-like forecast for the upcoming week with cool temperatures and a soaking rain on Tuesday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
41. listenerVT
2:00 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Here's a photo my son took in the middle of Kennebunk, Maine a few hours ago. Impressive! He says the thunder and lightning were impressive, but the wind not as bad as he imagined it would be when he saw the cloud.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5709
40. Zachary Labe
11:49 AM GMT on August 05, 2014
Down in Ocean City, MD for the week. We are expecting some 5ft swells later today from Bertha offshore.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
39. tlawson48
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2014
Went to see my folks on the coast of Maine this weekend. Not only have they not hit 90F this year, they have had only 8 days above 80F. Yesterday topped out at 70F for about twenty minutes. The humidity has been through the roof, but certainly not the temperatures.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
38. Pcroton
11:37 PM GMT on August 02, 2014
My two favorite lines from the blog entry.


Forecasting for large time scales is essentially a game of detective work; even though clues may point to one suspect, it probably is not him.


This I feel is an important mention. I feel as if all these indicies may enhance your probabilities of a specific outcome of weather but they don't directly drive a given solution. Far too often and increasingly at that there seems to be a quoting of a specific index state or the location of a dominant weather feature extrapolated outward to a failsafe solution.....only to see that solution fail.



My non-science based gut tells me a blockbuster snowy winter along with some cold weather is possible.



Good to see that while learning you haven't given up the natural connection that initiated the hobby in the first place. What you see, hear, and feel can often trump indicies, analogs, and models.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 101 Comments: 20889
37. Zachary Labe
7:44 PM GMT on August 01, 2014
Pretty lousy looking IR satellite for Bertha...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
36. Astrometeor
6:25 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Nashville tied its second daily low so far this summer, dropping to 58 this morning. On July 16, we tied a record at 57.

But I like a cool summer since I've been able to do a lot of things outdoors.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 103 Comments: 10811
35. Zachary Labe
2:35 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Quoting 34. TheRasberryPatch:

I looked at my weather data for July and I recorded 6 days of 90F or higher with 92F being the highest.
Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey

Middletown is at (9) 90F-days this year. Average is approximately 22-23 for the entire summer. Given the cool outlooks for August and climatological averages, I think it is safe to say we may be well below that average.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
34. TheRasberryPatch
1:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
I looked at my weather data for July and I recorded 6 days of 90F or higher with 92F being the highest.
Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
33. originalLT
1:20 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Thanks, Zach, you confirmed what I thought.(Your post #31).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
32. Zachary Labe
1:06 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Neat map developed by WU...

I am not overly enthusiastic about the long-term development of the disturbance in the Atlantic (93L). It will eventually be moving into some drier air and wind shear. I also expect the east coast trough to recurve it out to sea. However, the widespread dust across the Atlantic is really inhibiting development so the possibility is there that the system remains so weak that it is not affected by the steering currents. In this case, it will bring some much needed rain into the Caribbean. I expect the quiet tropical season activity to continue into mid August, at least.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
31. Zachary Labe
12:00 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Quoting 30. originalLT:

Waiting for the official July figures here out of NYC. for July temps. Has to be "cooler" than last year. Last July through this date in the month we had 16 days of 90F or above, this year only 3. So it will be cooler than last year, but maybe last year was abnormally hot? So this year is closer to "average".

Central Park, NY: Mean Monthly
July 2014 - (-0.2F) (To date)
July 2013 - (+3.3F)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
30. originalLT
2:04 AM GMT on July 30, 2014
Waiting for the official July figures here out of NYC. for July temps. Has to be "cooler" than last year. Last July through this date in the month we had 16 days of 90F or above, this year only 3. So it will be cooler than last year, but maybe last year was abnormally hot? So this year is closer to "average".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
29. NEwxguy
6:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
We're still one to 2 degrees above normal for the month,but it sure hasn't felt like it.
Especially without any heatwaves.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
28. TheRasberryPatch
6:39 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
Quoting 27. Blizzard92:


We dropped to 45F on campus on July 25! It was quite chilly; we have been in the 40s several times this month.

And here is the official statement...
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED IN SOUTH
ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP IN LEBANON COUNTY...

LOCATION...SOUTH ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP
DATE...JULY 27 2014
ESTIMATED TIME...725 PM EDT
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2 MILES (SPORADIC DAMAGE PATH)

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS CONFIRMED A
MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ IN SOUTH ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP
IN LEBANON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA ON JULY 27 2014.

THE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF
U.S. 322 FROM MT. PLEASANT ROAD TO SR 934 (S WHITE OAK STREET).
DAMAGE CONSISTED OF A PORTION OF A ROOF OFF A FARM HOUSE...MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL FARM/OUTBUILDINGS AND NUMEROUS TREES
SNAPPED OFF OR KNOCKED DOWN.


Wow, that must have been that cloud my wife and kids were looking at that evening. I just blew it off as just a cloud, yea yea yea.

Highs in the low 70's for July 29th. Pretty amazing.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
27. Zachary Labe
11:49 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Quoting 26. TheRasberryPatch:

Temps in the 50's this morning with dew pts even lower. We had a bit more rain early yesterday evening.

Blizz - I saw Johnstone is in the upper 40's

We dropped to 45F on campus on July 25! It was quite chilly; we have been in the 40s several times this month.

And here is the official statement...
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED IN SOUTH
ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP IN LEBANON COUNTY...

LOCATION...SOUTH ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP
DATE...JULY 27 2014
ESTIMATED TIME...725 PM EDT
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2 MILES (SPORADIC DAMAGE PATH)

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS CONFIRMED A
MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ IN SOUTH ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP
IN LEBANON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA ON JULY 27 2014.

THE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF
U.S. 322 FROM MT. PLEASANT ROAD TO SR 934 (S WHITE OAK STREET).
DAMAGE CONSISTED OF A PORTION OF A ROOF OFF A FARM HOUSE...MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL FARM/OUTBUILDINGS AND NUMEROUS TREES
SNAPPED OFF OR KNOCKED DOWN.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
26. TheRasberryPatch
10:58 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Temps in the 50's this morning with dew pts even lower. We had a bit more rain early yesterday evening.

Blizz - I saw Johnstone is in the upper 40's
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
25. listenerVT
5:54 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
I'll take all the snow!!

I just don't want ice.

Buy stock in crampons!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5709
24. tlawson48
5:10 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Considering that I put more insulation in my house last summer and then still burned an extra 200 gallons more that I usually do, I don't need to freeze again. What killed me was March. It was colder than January and the boiler just never stopped running. I had 8 days that were below zero in March. Then April was colder than normal. I didn't turn the thermostat off until Mother's Day. Would appreciate the super cold go someplace else this winter.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
23. georgevandenberghe
5:01 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 19. NEwxguy:

I don't know if Ican take another long long winter like last year, I love the storms and the winter weather,but I like it to have a little break during the winter.


The problem in the DC area last year was the long warm breaks in between the intense cold spells. This caused a few species to partially break dormancy only to be nailed by subsequent intense cold. The early March outbreak (-10 to -15C) following a several day warm spell in late February, was the most damaging of these.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2761
22. NEwxguy
4:38 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
It was confirmed that it was in fact a tornado that touched down in Revere Mass. It so so rare for a tornado in Boston suburbs.Crazy weather pattern.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
21. Zachary Labe
4:30 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 19. NEwxguy:

I don't know if Ican take another long long winter like last year, I love the storms and the winter weather,but I like it to have a little break during the winter.

A lot can change between now and winter, but there are strong signals for a snowy and cold winter. Today's Nino 3.4 numbers came in at ~-0.2, so I am doubting our El Nino becomes very strong.

TheRasberryPatch- I will check later today for the official assessment statement; they should provide an approximate time.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
20. TheRasberryPatch
4:05 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Blizz - do they give a time when the damage was done yesterday? My wife and kids were looking at a cloud at the beginning of the thunderstorm which would have been between 7 and 730. We had some pretty good lightning at that time.

I guess another Summer comes to an end early this year. I don't mind those predictions in September, but August?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
19. NEwxguy
4:03 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
I don't know if Ican take another long long winter like last year, I love the storms and the winter weather,but I like it to have a little break during the winter.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
18. Zachary Labe
3:53 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Brrrrr...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
17. Zachary Labe
3:51 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 16. NEwxguy:

GM,Blizz,I agree,for us here in the northeast tornadoes are so rare and they spinup so quickly,its almost impossible to predict.The best they can do is put up a severe thunderstorm warning and then watch the radar if the cells are especially strong and look for the rotation to show up.

I always like when they add the enhanced text at the bottom of anomalous severe thunderstorm warnings that say weak rotation has been detected with this cell and a tornado may still develop. I think it provides some communication to the public that there is uncertainty in severe thunderstorms and that they should not be disregarded.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
16. NEwxguy
3:47 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
GM,Blizz,I agree,for us here in the northeast tornadoes are so rare and they spinup so quickly,its almost impossible to predict.The best they can do is put up a severe thunderstorm warning and then watch the radar if the cells are especially strong and look for the rotation to show up.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
15. Zachary Labe
3:37 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Hearing reports of a tornado touchdown earlier this morning near Revere, MA. It appears like there is structural damage in the area. A tornado warning was issued by BOX, but with only about 1 minute warn time. The radar scans only indicated a TVS very briefly. This is one of the reasons it is extremely difficult to forecast tornadoes in general, but in particular for the Northeast. I am already reading plenty of criticisms of the BOX NWS office; however, I was watching the cell this morning and it only displayed rotation for a very brief period of time (right when the warning was issued).

REVERE SUFFOLK MA NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. TELEPHONE POLES DOWN ON BEECH TO SPRAGUE STREET AREAS. TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON COOLIDGE STREET. (BOX)

REVERE SUFFOLK MA MALDEN STREET AND CARLSON AVENUE CLOSED DUE TO CARS OVERTURNED AND TREES DOWN. (BOX)

REVERE SUFFOLK MA PARK AVENUE IMPASSABLE DUE TO LIVE WIRES DOWN. (BOX)

REVERE SUFFOLK MA A COUPLE OF ROOF COLLAPSES ON CENTRAL AVE. GAS LEAK ON MILL STREET. (BOX)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
14. Zachary Labe
3:27 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 12. georgevandenberghe:

Some very high resolution weather models now explicitly numerically solve the full set of seven PDEs. Most still don't making approximations for one or two of them. The simplest and most ubiquitous of these approximations is the hydrostatic approximation which assumes pressure is EXACTLY proportional to the mass of the atmosphere above a point. This eliminates vertical acceleration and so vertical motion must be diagnosed.



How to integrate the full set has been known since the 1950s and most of the numerical analysis issues were worked out by the 80s leaving us to just wait for more computer power and better initialization schemes. I would argue that how to INITIALIZE remains an unsolved problem with a lot of loose ends.

Link... Interesting upgrades that are being tweaked for the GFS with resolution grids down to 13km and a few changes in convective parameterizations However, it needs some parallelization work and probably will be delayed for its implementation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
13. Zachary Labe
3:18 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
TheRasberryPatch-

000
NOUS41 KCTP 281502
PNSCTP
PAZ059-281915-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA NEAR SOUTH
ANNVILLE TOWNSHIP IN LEBANON COUNTY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE WILL CONDUCT A
STORM SURVEY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA NEAR SOUTH ANNVILLE
TOWNSHIP IN LEBANON COUNTY. THE SURVEY IS IN RELATION TO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON JULY 27 2014.

A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT BY THIS EVENING.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
12. georgevandenberghe
2:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Some very high resolution weather models now explicitly numerically solve the full set of seven PDEs. Most still don't making approximations for one or two of them. The simplest and most ubiquitous of these approximations is the hydrostatic approximation which assumes pressure is EXACTLY proportional to the mass of the atmosphere above a point. This eliminates vertical acceleration and so vertical motion must be diagnosed.



How to integrate the full set has been known since the 1950s and most of the numerical analysis issues were worked out by the 80s leaving us to just wait for more computer power and better initialization schemes. I would argue that how to INITIALIZE remains an unsolved problem with a lot of loose ends.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2761
11. originalLT
1:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Morning Zach, yes, there was a confirmed Tornado, just North of New Haven. Top winds estimated to be 80-85mph., so I guess it was an EF0. Some trees down --one fell onto a house, some other things destroyed, but nobody hurt.----BTW we only received 0.12" of rain overnight, we missed the big cells. Just a little thunder and lightning, no wind at all. Also, the time of that tornado report was 12:51 pm Sunday afternoon---not with the night time stuff.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
10. TheRasberryPatch
12:40 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 9. Blizzard92:

Anduril- I am anxious to see the rainfall totals out of northern Cumberland County where radar estimated rainfall totals were between 6-8 inches. It seems there was not very much severe weather in the region, but quite a bit of rain. Although I did see the isolated tornado report in Connecticut.

TheRasberryPatch- Last I heard from my station back home, it was at 1.18" of rain from those thunderstorms. SPC is reporting power lines/trees down 3mi NE of Campbelltown from yesterday. I was also surprised to see the warm anomalies over the region. Looking at the data, it appears the warmer overnight lows have helped keep the means higher.

originalLT- Did you hear anything additional about the tornado in CT yesterday?


I guess I didn't think about the warm overnight lows.

I received 1.60" of rain for the storm with some hail. They were tiny. The size of sleet. I didn't have as strong of wind like we had last Wednesday's storm. My strongest gust yesterday was 23mph. That wind report must have been isolated or maybe with weak trees. What is surprising is they mention 3 miles N of Campbelltown. I believe that is Palmyra.

A clarification - do you say I received or I got or the amount of rain for my house? Any suggestions?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
9. Zachary Labe
12:02 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Anduril- I am anxious to see the rainfall totals out of northern Cumberland County where radar estimated rainfall totals were between 6-8 inches. It seems there was not very much severe weather in the region, but quite a bit of rain. Although I did see the isolated tornado report in Connecticut.

TheRasberryPatch- Last I heard from my station back home, it was at 1.18" of rain from those thunderstorms. SPC is reporting power lines/trees down 3mi NE of Campbelltown from yesterday. I was also surprised to see the warm anomalies over the region. Looking at the data, it appears the warmer overnight lows have helped keep the means higher.

originalLT- Did you hear anything additional about the tornado in CT yesterday?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
8. originalLT
2:20 AM GMT on July 28, 2014
Hi Blizz, waiting for the T.Storms to get here in Sw CT. I have to agree with TRP, it seems at least, we have had a very "tepid" summer, meaning that daily high temps. have been generally 2-3F below average, and very few 90F + days. Some of the TV NYC Mets, have said more or less they same thing. Also, on a practical point, I know my electric bill has been less--and I know it's not because they lowered the rates!--Just haven't used the air-conditioning as much.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
7. TheRasberryPatch
11:34 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
Great blog. Still in this strong thunderstorm. Now at 0.70" of rain. This is twice in the last week I have had very strong thunderstorm with strong winds and heavy rain.

Blizz - I am surprised with the above normal temperatures for Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic for the Summer. I think we have had 2 days above 90F and they weren't much higher than 90F. I also have friends along the coast and they said it's been a cool summer. I think it has been great weather with less humidity.

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
6. TheRasberryPatch
11:22 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
I haven't had a chance to read the new blog. I will in a bit.

Getting a very strong thunderstorm with the tiniest of hail with the rain. Winds are strong and it's raining cats and dogs. Thunder and lightning with the thunderstorm.

Already 0.35" of rain in 10 mins.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
5. originalLT
9:39 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
Thanks for the new blog, Blizz. Looks like your home town is just missing a strong cell that will pass by it just to the North, at about 6pm Sunday. May get "scraped" by it though.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
4. anduril
3:00 PM GMT on July 26, 2014
Good morning Blizz, nice writeup and can certainly hope we get an active and snowy winter! Having said that, what are your thoughts on the potential for strong storms tomorrow in central PA?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
3. Astrometeor
6:12 AM GMT on July 26, 2014
Yay for me knowing the Ideal Gas Law. Eww at everything else.

Good blog, Zach. I'll keep up the score. :) I remember several last year and TWC who predicted a warm winter for my area. I think that was proved false after I measured -4F on my thermometer in January down here in Tennessee.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 103 Comments: 10811
2. Zachary Labe
6:58 PM GMT on July 25, 2014
Smoky skies across the Northeast. I can certainly attest to this looking out my window here in Ithaca; it is quite hazy.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
1. tlawson48
6:49 PM GMT on July 25, 2014
I can attest to the Northeast being above average in temps for July. Here in Maine, it has been somewhat warmer than average, despite not coming within ten degrees of any record high temps. This proves what we all learned last winter: you don't have to have record setting days to be substantially warmer or colder than average, it just has to be consistent. This summer has been very consistent. If we stay in the same pattern for another winter, well it wouldn't be surprising given that the pattern is basically the same as it has been for almost a year. Good for Eastern skiing, really, realy bad for California.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179

Viewing: 50 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
60 °F
Scattered Clouds

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations