"The Coming Global Earth"

By: Zachary Labe , 4:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014

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Zachary Labe
13 June 2014
The Coming Global Earth

A few years ago, I picked up a fictional book at the library titled "The Coming Gobal Superstorm" by Art Bell and Whitely Strieber. For those familiar, the plot is the inspiration behind the Hollywood hit The Day After Tomorrow. To summize the plot, global climate change leads to the eventual shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) signaling an ice ago across North America and Europe.


(Courtesy of NCDC)

It is widely understood that Earth's desire for thermal equilbrium, despite unequal heating, is partially achieved through the concept of the THC when heat is transfered through these global ocean conveyor belts. However, the book theorizes that a disruption is evaporation and salinity properties across the North Atlantic would create a disruption to the gulf stream and hence and break in the conveyor belt. Heat from the equator would no longer be transported poleward and therefore bye, bye temperate climate Europe. A work of science fiction most would conclude, however... paleoclimate records from ice cores in Greenland suggest that this has indeed occurred in the past. During the last ice ago, temperatures across Greenland cooled nearly 7 degrees Celsius. Changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and salinity likely resulted in a displacement of the Gulf Stream. In any case, it is likely the THC will collapse ago over the next few centuries due to natural cycles. The good news is that present climate models suggest that any temperature or precipitation anomaly effects will be for the most part minimal and/or localized to severe cooling across Greenland.


(Couresty of UK Met Offce Research Division)

The concept of heat balance is certainly more complicated than ocean currents, and in fact much of the basis behind it lies in simple radiation laws. Using this simple model of the atmosphere we can conceptualize incoming and outgoing radiation through the atmosphere in relation to temperature based on the Stefan Boltzmann Law.


(Goosse H., P.Y. Barriat, W. Lefebvre, M.F. Loutre and V. Zunz, (date of view). Introduction to climate dynamics and climate modeling.)

Alpha=Earth's albedo (approximately 0.3 [unitless])
So= Earth's solar constant (approximately 1367 [W/m^2])
Epsilon= emissivity (ratio of amount of radiation absorbed by object compared to that of a blackbody)
Ta= Effective Temperature (Temperature of Earth given no radiation absorption) (Approximately 255 [K])
Ts= Surface Temperature (Actual mean temperature of Earth) (Approximately 288 [K])
Sigma= Stefan's Constant (Approximately 5.670373×10−8 [W m−2 K−4])

This basic model represents that of an atmosphere with one layer greenhouse gas absorption (not Earth). Since the amount of incoming and outgoing energy must stay constant so therefore an increase in layers causes an increase in T (Earth).

Quite simply, I think it was this beautiful mathematic relationship, which can ever-so simply model the entire Earth's atmosphere's transfer of energy, is the reason I have switched gears into new studies and interests. My current research also uses simple inputs of Tmax and Tmin over the course of a year for a given climate station to derive synoptic parameters and eventual indices revolving around the timing onset of Spring. Using these relationships, we can track trends over x length of time from Earth's potential energy correlated to the timing of spring based on phenological data. It is quite astounding how accurately we can model these relationships.

My culminating final year of study will focus on these climatological effects in hopeful preparation for a PhD program beginning Fall 2015 in small and large spatial scale climatology. While my interests still include some forecasting (particularly long-term), I think my skill sets and essentially my enjoyment will rather be fulfilled in research academia, at least for the time being. This slightly convoluted and disorganized blog gives a rather quick overview of my absence here during the past few months. Over the course of the summer, I hope to write a weekly blog detailing a range of topics from weather forecasts to short overviews of topics covered in my courses. I have gained quite a bit of respect for the complicated arithmetic that unfolds to deliver our weather forecasts, and my hope is to share a bit of this with all with you. Without a formal education in the field, it is unfortunate that enthusiasts never get to see the beauty behind the mechanics and physical properties of the Earth sciences.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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22. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:13 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
21. Danali
10:45 PM GMT on June 22, 2014
It will be fun to keep up with the weekly postings. :)
Member Since: June 11, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
20. listenerVT
3:58 AM GMT on June 20, 2014
Quoting 18. Tphennes:

(Formally MariettaMoon)

"Like" post.

Astrometeor: I just graduated Millersville in May as a Geography (GIS) major / land use minor.

I garauntee you will enjoy your time at Millersville. The meteorology professors are really cool and down to Earth.

Enjoy!

Btw...Recently landed a job at Risk Management Solutions (RMS) in Hoboken, NJ. RMS develops catastrophe models for insurance companies world wide. Models include earthquakes, climate change, terrorism, severe convective storms, volcanoes, storm surge etc... I was hired on to do Superstorm Sandy research in NYC, Long Island, and Jersey Shore. The data will be incorporated into our GIS models.


Thanks for taking on this important work!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5546
19. Zachary Labe
6:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2014
Tphennes- Congratulations! I have a friend up in Boston (recent CU atmos grad) who is doing risk management and modeling for AIR Worldwide. It sounds like a few interesting career!

I will be taking a GIS course in our agronomy department for spring 2015, so we will see how that goes!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
18. Tphennes
5:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2014
(Formally MariettaMoon)

"Like" post.

Astrometeor: I just graduated Millersville in May as a Geography (GIS) major / land use minor.

I garauntee you will enjoy your time at Millersville. The meteorology professors are really cool and down to Earth.

Enjoy!

Btw...Recently landed a job at Risk Management Solutions (RMS) in Hoboken, NJ. RMS develops catastrophe models for insurance companies world wide. Models include earthquakes, climate change, terrorism, severe convective storms, volcanoes, storm surge etc... I was hired on to do Superstorm Sandy research in NYC, Long Island, and Jersey Shore. The data will be incorporated into our GIS models.
Member Since: June 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
17. Zachary Labe
4:43 PM GMT on June 19, 2014
Quoting 16. originalLT:

Blizz you mention August for heat, but that's a month and a half away. Do you see any heat "spells" later this month or in July?

There are some teleconnections signaling heat for around July 4th or probably a bit thereafter. I would say that is our best chance for the first widespread official heatwave.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
16. originalLT
8:41 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
Blizz you mention August for heat, but that's a month and a half away. Do you see any heat "spells" later this month or in July?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
15. originalLT
8:38 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
Looks like a lone T. Shower is heading for you Blizz, right now by about 4:50pm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
14. Zachary Labe
3:19 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
Quoting 13. tlawson48:

It appears that after suffering through the long winter and nverending cold Spring, that Northern New England will be treated to some of the most amazing summerweather in years. The pattern going forward into July and beyand still has no dominant driving factors, so the results appears to be that a day or two of sorta hot, nice north west breeze for a couple days, humidity never builds for too long, thunderstorms are spotty and fairly weak. Basically a perfect pattern!

Nice trends in nino 3.4 and kelvin wave propagation... so I think once we hit August, bring on the heat
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
13. tlawson48
1:49 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
It appears that after suffering through the long winter and nverending cold Spring, that Northern New England will be treated to some of the most amazing summerweather in years. The pattern going forward into July and beyand still has no dominant driving factors, so the results appears to be that a day or two of sorta hot, nice north west breeze for a couple days, humidity never builds for too long, thunderstorms are spotty and fairly weak. Basically a perfect pattern!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1145
12. Zachary Labe
1:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
Highly sheared westerly flow and sufficient surface heating should support a significant cluster of severe thunderstorms across the northern Middle Atlantic tomorrow. Wind damage is the primary threat. SPC looks to have a great outline of the highest threat areas.

Given current kinematic parameters, I am expecting this to be one of the more widespread severe weather events in the area for this summer thus far. Looking at past analogs, it is expected that western Pennsylvania probably will see the highest concentration of wind damage reports.

As for today, HRRR activity keeps most of the activity across upstate New York with a small MCS bowing cluster following the northern periphery of the thermal ridge. Hoping to get scraped here in Ithaca, it has been a terribly quiet convective season.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
11. listenerVT
2:34 AM GMT on June 17, 2014
Quoting 10. originalLT:

Hi Hoy, Listener and Blizz, first Blizz, thanks for your response--it should be a wide open field with hopefully many job positions. As for your question , Listener, it stems from Morse Code, basically.Go to "Yahoo Answers" and ask the question and you'll get a more detailed answer than I can give.


Ohhhh, that makes perfect sense, then. Thanks!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5546
10. originalLT
1:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2014
Hi Hoy, Listener and Blizz, first Blizz, thanks for your response--it should be a wide open field with hopefully many job positions. As for your question , Listener, it stems from Morse Code, basically.Go to "Yahoo Answers" and ask the question and you'll get a more detailed answer than I can give.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
9. Hoynieva
1:04 PM GMT on June 16, 2014
I actually do have a trip on the horizon, now that you mention it. We are going to a wedding in Italy and on the way back stopping in Spain and Iceland, the latter of which I've wanted to visit for many years. I'm really looking forward to it and will post some of the journey on IG, as you'd probably expect :)
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
8. listenerVT
5:05 AM GMT on June 16, 2014
Great things on the horizon, I see!

Can someone explain the origin of the abbreviation "wx" for weather?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5546
7. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on June 15, 2014
Quoting 6. originalLT:

Blizz, thanks so much for this new Blog. I think your interest in this "Field" is coming along at the perfect point in "history" what with the debates on GW or maybe we should say, "climate change"--that might be more accurate.

After my graduate work, I would like to move into the energy industry including renewables; it is quite a growing field and will likely continue its prominence through the 21st century. Climate change or not, there is no denying the limited number of resources in correlation to an exponential population growth.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
6. originalLT
1:18 PM GMT on June 14, 2014
Blizz, thanks so much for this new Blog. I think your interest in this "Field" is coming along at the perfect point in "history" what with the debates on GW or maybe we should say, "climate change"--that might be more accurate.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
5. Zachary Labe
12:54 PM GMT on June 14, 2014
*Anyone else having troubles modifying blogs? I see typos that I am trying to fix, but for the last day I have been unable to modify the blog. When I click the button, it refreshed to the same screen as before. Meh.

Hoynieva- Finding topics is probably the most difficult... I get tired of the same day in and out forecasts so I try to write about something else. But your comments are definitely appreciated. Fridays are my days off from research/coding and instead at the math library, so I should be able to post some blogs this summer. Do you have any exciting trips planned for the summer?

Astrometeor- Oooh how exciting! Make sure you get involved with their American Meteorological Society chapter. Almost every year at the AMS conference they are either number one or place in the top 5 for the best student chapters! They also have a superb wxchallenge team!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
4. Astrometeor
3:28 AM GMT on June 14, 2014
Quoting 2. Blizzard92:

Astrometeor- Congratulations on graduation! When do you move into Millersville?


According to the calendar, orientation begins August 21. Classes begin August 25. And...my birthday is August 27. -__-
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
3. Hoynieva
3:22 AM GMT on June 14, 2014
Sounds great and I think I speak for more than just myself in saying that I look forward to it. I commend most anyone for keeping up their blogs. I know I've started them in the past (not here) and found that I'd not return to make any entries, or post so infrequently that it became a a random disconnected mess. You've been doing it for quite a while and have taught people on these blogs quite a bit more about this love we all share, so what's a little break from time to time (especially when it's summer and you're a winter weather buff formerly known as Blizz). We appreciate what we can get, when we get it.

So...thanks.

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
2. Zachary Labe
5:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Astrometeor- Congratulations on graduation! When do you move into Millersville?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1. Astrometeor
5:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
beautiful mathematic relationship unfortunate that enthusiasts never get to see the beauty behind the mechanics and physical properties of the Earth sciences

You sound like my geometry and Calculus teachers. Eww.

Nice to see you back, Zach.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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