Large Nor'easter to Impact the Eastern Half of the Nation

By: Zachary Labe , 9:49 PM GMT on February 11, 2014

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Zachary Labe
Posted: 11 February 2014

Another busy weather period is likely over the next 48 hours as a strong low pressure moves up the east coast. It's Gulf of Mexico origins will allow it to bring significant moisture and bring winter weather impacts from Florida to Maine. The forecast, however, is not overly difficult. The synoptic setup is pretty straight forward. For those who own Paul Kocin's, "Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1/2" books, this is very characteristic for a Miller A system. A track along the immediate coast will focus in heavy snows just northwest of the I-95 corridor with warmer conditions closer to the coast. High winds under a tight pressure gradient are likely in addition to increasing surf. Lack of upstream blocking, we keep this storm from achieving its full potential, so nothing overly historic in this regard. Highest storm total snowfall amounts will be limited to mostly under 20" due to the rapid movement of this system.


(Courtesy of the WPC)

This blog will take a different approach to my usual forecasts. It will instead look at more of the scientific reasons that certain features of this event will occur with meteorological and mathematical support. I will provide a snow map during the day Wednesday and post it on the blog.

Diving into the meteorological goodness of modeling, there are some clear concerns for those looking for a consensus.



The above images are the GFS and ECMWF respectively for sea level pressure (SLP) at 48 hours on the 12z, 11 February 2014 run. We can already see some differences in track. It is important to note that while the differences seem minor in a graphical representation, they can have major impacts on a forecast for a corridor that contains a large majority of the US population.

Below is a pretty interesting tool using NCEP verification charts...



It is important to note several things about this chart. First, we can see that temperatures have been running several anomalies too cold for H5 temperatures. This is confirmed by both the NAM and GFS. We also see that in general there is no overwhelmingly accurate choice between the GFS and NAM for 500mb analysis. Recently, I have seen many inaccurate statements regarding biases on the computer models. For a full list of observed biases on the computer models see this Link. Thermal profiles have actually been doing fairly well this year on the GFS/NAM. The recent upgrade to the GFS has eliminated its old biases of the typical unamplified southeast low track we used to find for nor'easters. It's cold bias has also been eliminated. The biggest concern for this event would be over-estimation of QPF, which is a readily observed bias on the GFS and NAM. This is confirmed by several ground reports cases this winter. The latest statements from the NCEP confirm that the GGEM is the western outlier and the NAM is the eastern outlier. While they cannot be discarded entirely, it is usually a pretty good idea to eliminate their use for the majority of a forecast.

Most of the upper air data sites across the Pacific have been heavily and completed sounded for this event. Only minor nuisances exist between the computer models, and most of them are due to discrepancies in different parameterizations and algorithms. It is also important to note that this storm setup is significantly different than the common Miller B systems we have been seeing the last few winters. In our setup, we have a moisture-fed low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico and moving northeast. Cold air is also lacking in this event. A retreating 1032mb high pressure will be quickly scooting off the coast of Maine. This is definitely a less than ideal position for widespread I-95 snows. Also across the Great Lakes, we have an interesting feature. A potent upper level low (ULL) is swinging through Michigan. This will act to 'kick' the storm off to the northeast and prevent it from moving too far west. It will also act to increase a confluent flow of dry air creating a sharp western precipitation gradient. Surprise. Surprise.

As mentioned earlier, the synoptic setup is pretty simple. The main features have already been described. It is a matter of the exact track of this system that will play a significant role in impacts. Multiple forecasting rules of thumb can be utilized in this case to go above and beyond model guidance.

Ice crystal formation is a result of several processes: deposition, mixed-phasing, riming, and ice nucleation. The differences in the processes are often a result of thermal boundaries, aerosols, and moisture gradients in the clouds. As ice crystals form, they begin to fall through a vertical column of the atmosphere. To look at that end result of these ice crystals, we must look at a vertical profile of the atmosphere. On a large-scale, a good rule of thumb is to look at this infamous 1000-500mb thickness level. We always hear about the 540dm line being magical for a rain/snow line, but however it is very inaccurate.



Mathematically, a thickness layer is proportional to the mean virtual temperature over two heights. In this case that is being 1000mb (assumed surface of Earth) and 500mb (approximately 18000ft). To provide a little math goodness to this blog, we can estimate a location thickness using the hypsometric equation:

Z2-Z1 = ((Rd*T)/g)*ln(P1/P2)

Where...
Z2-Z1 is the thickness in meters
Rd = dry air gas constant of 287
T = virtual mean temperature (kelvins)
P1 = pressure of 1000mb
P2 = pressure of 500mb

Note that the virtual temperature is the theoretical temperature a dry air parcel would have to total pressure and density equal to that of a moist air parcel. Anyways, when you run the actual numbers, you can see that freezing is around 540dm. That is how you get the actual derivation for thickness calculations. You find the thickness over any two pressure levels along with the mean virtual temperature. This does not mean a whole heck of a lot for forecasting precipitation types because of one key idea. That thickness utilizes an average of the temperature over 18000ft. We clearly know from analyzing vertical profiles, that there are temperature nuisances in that vertical approach with possible warm layers.

It is necessary to see if there are any above freezing layers over that thickness. Using balloon soundings, if any layers are +3C or warmer, than complete melting of the snowflake will occur. Also if the warm layer is less than 750m thick, it is likely snow will occur. The depth of the warm layer is the separation between precipitation types.

So lets take this and apply it to this forecast. I am utilizing the 4km NAM only due to its higher resolution maps.



The upper left panel includes surface temperatures, while the upper right is a temperature at 850mb (~5000ft). The temperature at H85 is not a thickness, but a specific temperature at one height. It is another tool in forecasting rain/snow types. The 0C lines are the bolded, colored lines in both panels. It is generally assumed using forecasting rule of thumbs that the rain/snow line is around 15-30 miles or so to the north of the H85 0C line. This is not always the case, but in our setup it should work. Analyzing Skew T plots will also help us determine where the rain/snow/ice lines will be. It is the actual vertical slice of the atmosphere.



For our purposes just focus on the horizontal axis. Those are temperatures at the surface (~1000mb). Follow the black contours that are straight at an angle going to the right of the plot. The right red line is the actual air temperature. The left black dashed line is the dew point temperature. The above Skew T is for NYC at the height of the storm. We can see that there is a layer from 2500-5000ft above freezing. That is right around our melting threshold of 750mb (2500ft). Despite a H85 right around 0C and 1000-500mb thickness of sub 540dm, we would think it would be a snow profile. But looking at the actual temperatures aloft, we can see that the snow will melt and produce sleet at the surface.

Of course we can have atmospheric dynamic and mesoscale processes override this concept, but that is getting a bit too detailed for our purposes. I want to show that there is quite a bit beyond looking at a few images produced by graphical operational and ensemble modeling. It requires further analysis.

We can eliminate forecast models, once we have established a basis idea. A couple of rules of thumb I have been utilizing for this event include...

1) Heaviest axis of snows are usually 50-100mb north and west of the 850hPa low track. This works pretty well, especially for nor'easters where cold-conveyor belt/slanted convection (CCB) bands are fairly common. Despite, what model QPF predictions show, I always utilize this idea.
2) Forecasting western precipitation gradients is probably, in my opinion, the most difficult aspect of these events. I have been utilizing a new rule of thumb that works pretty well... Find the model consensus 0.5" QPF line. Expect that line to be the no snow/snow line. In sharp ~5" or more versus 0" cutoffs above small distances, this works pretty well.
3) Nor'easters, Miller A in particular, often feature very little in the way of freezing rain due to their thermal profiles. There can be an area of sleet, but freezing rain is unlikely at these latitudes. Also in our case for this event, an unfavorable high system to the north will keep these probabilities low. It will mainly be a sharp rain/snow line.
4) Find the axis of most impressive frontogenesis, omega, and vertical vorticity (again usually 50-100mi northwest of the H85 low). This axis will see the most mesoscale banding. Snow ratios will also be most impressive in this area.
5) Snow ratios are generally low for systems out of the Gulf of Mexico due to the deep saturated layer aloft. Maximum snow ratios will only be 12:1 or so. And given the antecedent air mass is pretty stale, it looks like wet snow bomb is in order.
6) Note the area of sharpest SST gradient between shallow land waters and deeper waters. This is a natural area of baroclinicity where a low in this type of setup is most likely to track. It is often very close to the coast, if not even farther inland.
7) Back-end deformation snows are always forecast, but never come to fruition. This is often courtesy of a drying, downsloping mechanism that eliminates this QPF. I expect no back-end snow in this event.
8) The heaviest snow axis usually falls further northwest than model guidance shows. This is an observed bias by the WPC and NCEP that needs to be taking into account when making a forecast.
9) Dynamically induced snowfall is always a threat despite what may seem like a rain profile. This area is difficult to predict, but occurs in the axis of highest frontogenesis on the 'warm' side of the storm.
10) Lack of deep mixing of the atmosphere usually prevents surface winds from reaching full potential for inland areas. The coast is an exception to this rule.

So what does all of this mean...

Essentially, a strong low pressure will track from eastern North Carolina and parallel the coast. It will likely track north-northeast before turning northeast around the mouth of the Chesapeake. It will track inside the 40/70 benchmark. Excessive moisture in a large precipitation shield will overspread the region Wednesday night through Thursday.

Precipitation will start as snow for all areas with surface temperatures in the lower 30s. Current 2m T prognostics keep surface temperatures around 30F even for the far northwest locations during the majority of the event. As the low center tracks along New Jersey, warm southeasterly winds will allow precipitation to change to a heavy rain. Sleet will also be around 30 miles ahead of this line. Given climatological forecasts and statistical methods, I am expecting this mix line to push into the I-95 corridor. The duration is a bit uncertain. However, I expect all I-95 metropolitan regions to receive at least winter storm warning criteria snows of 6" or more before changing to any mixed precipitation. Coastal areas will see significantly less.

Heaviest snows will fall from along a line of Frederick, MD - Lancaster, PA - Allentown, PA - Morristown, NJ - Newburgh, NY - Worcester, MA - Concord NH - Bangor, ME. Accumulations may reach 12 inches or more along this axis. As mentioned earlier, due to the impressive speed of this storm system, accumulations of more than 20" are not overly likely. Or at least not widespread.

Wind gusts of 40mph are likely along the coast with high surf. Heavy rain is expected in parts of the Delmarva and New Jersey in excess of 1-2 inches.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 14-18"
Baltimore, MD- 9-14"
Salisbury, MD- 2-4"
Washington, DC- 7-13"
Wilmington, DE- 4-8"
Dover, DE- 3-6"
Pittsburgh, PA- 0-3"
State College PA- 2-4"
Williamsport, PA- 2-4"
Altoona, PA- 4-8"
Harrisburg, PA- 8-12"
Lancaster, PA- 14-18"
Philadelphia, PA- 5-10"
Allentown, PA- 12-16"
Scranton, PA- 5-10"
Trenton, NJ- 5-10"
New York City, NY- 5-10"
Poughkeepsie, NY- 12-16"
Binghamton, NY- 4-8"
Ithaca, NY- 1-3"
Albany, NY- 8-12"
Hartford, CT- 6-10"
Concord, NH- 10-14"
Worcester, MA- 7-12"
Boston, MA- 4-7"
Nantucket, MA- 0-1"
Hyannis, MA- 0-3"
Burlington, VT- 5-9"
Portland, ME- 5-10"
Bangor, ME- 10-14"

Snow Map...


There is a storm system of interest for the upcoming weekend, but I am going to jump ahead into the longer term. It is pretty evident based on latest guidance and global wavelengths that a warm temperature pattern will be impacting the Northeast during the end of February. The anomaly or length of this above normal temperature period is uncertain and will greatly affect whether flooding and ice jams are a threat. A Great Lakes cutter with heavy synoptic rains and an anomalous warm front would certainly cause major problems over the Northeast. The 10 February 2014 0z ECWMF shows this exact setup around days 8/9. The GFS ensembles are not as supportive and temper this warm spell for only a five day period or so. The EPO is heading positive along with other teleconnections in favor of upper level ridging over the east. Warmer weather is definitely coming. As for how long, there are varying signs... Given past analogous cold weather winters this can often be a reloading period for some more snow/cold to impact the region in March. See 1994. I am currently hedging toward this type of setup, but many questions remain. In any case, I am expecting these next seven days to be the final cold/snow in this ongoing spell since mid January.

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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2013-2014 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- Dusting
Monthly Total (December)- 9.6"
Monthly Total (January)- 10.3"
Monthly Total (February)- 25.0"
Seasonal Total- 44.9"

(Snow Storms Stats)
Trace - November 8 - First trace of snow - Lake effect snow shower
Dusting - November 12 - First snow on the ground - Anafront
1.5" - December 8 - First inch of snow - WAA double barrel low
4.3" - December 14 - Miller B - Changed to freezing rain/sleet
1.3" - December 17 - Alberta Clipper
2.0" - December 26 - Surprise squall/clipper
4.8" - January 2-3 - Miller B Coastal
1.5" - January 10 - SWFE all snow
3.1" - January 21 - Redeveloping clipper with heavy snow along I-95
6.0" - February 3 - Wet snow from coastal low
1.5" - February 5 - All sleet accumulation with 0.3" of freezing rain
1.5" - February 9 - Light snow with Alberta Clipper
10.5" - February 12-13 - Nor'easter
3.5" - February 15 - Alberta Clipper redevelopment
2.0" - February 18 - Clipper/snow squalls

(Advisories Issued)
Winter Weather Advisories- 11
Winter Storm Warnings- 4
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 3
Winter Storm Watches- 5

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 9.6F on 1/7/2014
Lowest Low Temperature- -3.1F on 1/7/2014
Wind Chill Advisories- 3
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Cornell University (950ft elev.) Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 3.7"
Monthly Total (December)- 16.4"
Monthly Total (January)- 18.5"
Monthly Total (February)- 19.0"
Seasonal Total- 57.6"

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453. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:56 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
452. Zachary Labe
6:17 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 451. bwi:


Had several rumbles of thunder in DC area this morning too. Feels like spring out there now.

I believe I heard about several lightning strikes to homes in northern Maryland this morning, but I cannot find a link to a news article.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
451. bwi
5:58 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 450. ThePoetSirrah:
Bizarre thunderstorm occurring here in Philadelphia with temperatures hovering in the mid-30's.


Had several rumbles of thunder in DC area this morning too. Feels like spring out there now.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
450. ThePoetSirrah
3:29 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Bizarre thunderstorm occurring here in Philadelphia with temperatures hovering in the mid-30's.
Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
449. TheRasberryPatch
3:28 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
It's been in the upper 20's with freezing rain since 8am.
Sidewalks and untreated areas are slick. Even my road that has had many treatments of salt is icy.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
448. Zachary Labe
1:11 PM GMT on February 19, 2014

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MARYLAND THRU MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND ADJACENT SRN NEW YORK STATE

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 191057Z - 191400Z

SUMMARY...A QUICK GLAZING OF MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES AND
WALKWAYS APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...ASSOCIATED
WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN.

DISCUSSION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INITIALLY DRY
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL QUICKLY SATURATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO EVAPORATION OF PRECIPITATION FROM
ALOFT...AND RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION ON DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH THIS LIKELY WILL REDUCE THE DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER ABOVE
THE LINGERING SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH OF AN ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL PERSIST...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN. GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING IMPULSE...WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
12-15Z TIME...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES THAT COULD YIELD RAIN TOTALS UP TO NEAR 1/4
INCH.

GIVEN THE INITIALLY COLD GROUND CONDITIONS...EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS
PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK GLAZING OF MOST UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES AND WALKWAYS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE AXIS OF COLDEST
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE PA INTO THE
WILLIAMSPORT PA...ELMIRA AND BINGHAMTON NY AREAS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...NEAR THE EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER...
AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
447. listenerVT
5:48 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
Quoting 446. Blizzard92:
New blog tomorrow afternoon!


Yayyy! Looking forward to it, Blizz!


It's only spitting snow here so far today, but it's blowing sideways!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
446. Zachary Labe
3:20 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
New blog tomorrow afternoon!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
445. Zachary Labe
3:12 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
Parents reporting 2.0" of snow back home in Linglestown, PA this morning. Only about 0.5" here in Ithaca today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
444. TheRasberryPatch
12:26 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
Just a small amount of new snow 1.5"

Campbelltown, Pa just east of Hershey
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
443. bwi
5:14 PM GMT on February 16, 2014
Looks like another cold blast building over the Hudson Bay and possible coastal storm in the 8-9 day time frame. I know there's a lot of model bashing on getting the details wrong, but the medium range forecasts seem to me to have been uncannily accurate in the last couple years on the general patterns, even a week out or slightly more.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
442. listenerVT
2:49 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 440. HurricaneLovr75:
Just got a Blizzard warning here in Rockland Mass.


Wow! When is it due?
Wait, I looked it up: due between now and 5am. South Shore is expecting 12-16" of snow! Aycarumba!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
441. listenerVT
2:48 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 437. weathernewbie:
 Who was the wise guy who named the storm Pax?
 Checked WU for my area and they are calling it  "light snow mist"  - a perfect description!   Since it was snow,  sleet, snow, rain, snow, etc. I really don't have accurate totals.  24+ inches?
I  can't get my photos to post the way listenerVT did,  must be snow-on-the-brain!Also, I'm assuming that your parents are ok.  They are fortunate to have the inside track to the BlizzCast.  


I completely agree about the name of the storm!!! I think it's dumb to name every little storm that passes through, anyway. But naming a STORM "Peace" is ridiculous and kind of an insult to true peace.

To post a photo from elsewhere (such as Facebook), click on "image" above the comment box and pop in your URL. THEN remove the "s" from the "https" part of the link and it should post fine.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
440. HurricaneLovr75
9:17 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Just got a Blizzard warning here in Rockland Mass.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
439. originalLT
9:07 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Light to Mod. snow at times here in Stamford CT. Driveway and roads covered Temps. 'Crashing" now, down quickly to 31.5F Wind generally N, 7-12mph. Baro. is 29.60" falling. Seems to be some fog with the snow, because visibility is way down to about 1/4 mile which is low for light to moderate snow. Looks like another 4-5hours of snow, so, 2-4" not a bad bet.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
438. TheRasberryPatch
8:58 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 433. Blizzard92:
3.5" of snow is the final total for back home in Linglestown, PA for today!


Very similar to my area

3.3" of snow. Temp is 33F at 4pm

Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
437. weathernewbie
8:21 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
 Who was the wise guy who named the storm Pax?
 Checked WU for my area and they are calling it  "light snow mist"  - a perfect description!   Since it was snow,  sleet, snow, rain, snow, etc. I really don't have accurate totals.  24+ inches?
I  can't get my photos to post the way listenerVT did,  must be snow-on-the-brain!Also, I'm assuming that your parents are ok.  They are fortunate to have the inside track to the BlizzCast.  
Member Since: September 26, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 48
436. terstorm
7:40 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 425. weathergeek5:
Snow and ice collapses roof at WGAL, knocks local station off the air

Link


So that's what that was about. I was wondering why Channel 8 suddenly went off the air. Thought the DVR had shut off, but it'd occasionally flash purple.
Member Since: October 11, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
435. terstorm
7:39 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
3" in Millersburg!
Member Since: October 11, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
434. Zachary Labe
7:35 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
And once again we can see the warmer temperatures are winning the battle for eastern areas along I-95. Without a source of arctic air, you cannot expect much snow accumulation for marginal temperatures. Dynamics aloft are never always enough especially when H85s are not really that cold. Boston to Cape Cod though look to have quite the fun tonight! Enjoy!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
433. Zachary Labe
7:22 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
3.5" of snow is the final total for back home in Linglestown, PA for today!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
432. weathernewbie
7:22 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Here in Bucks County, PA temperature is hovering around 31-33 degrees. Oddly, very light snow mixed with very light rain.

Sorry for not posting earlier conditions, lots of shoveling, breaking up ice and clearing ice-covered snow from gutters, etc.! Snow mounds from plowing/shoveling are as tall as I am.


Have fun at the festival Blizz, you've earned it!
Member Since: September 26, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 48
431. Zachary Labe
3:29 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
About an inch up here in Ithaca, NY this morning. Heading out to the chili-fest downtown soon, so it should be a fun wintry morning! About 2.5" with moderate snow being reported from the family back home in Linglestown.

Warm surface temperatures will prevent significant accumulations along and east of I-95 today. A February sun and temperatures in the low to mid 30s just won't cut it. Heavy accumulations though are expected for eastern New England. Most areas will see around 3-6" north and west of I-95 with 1-4" for eastern areas (mostly on top of existing snow pack) and then upwards of 10" or more for parts of extreme eastern New England.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
430. listenerVT
1:47 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Well done, PattyNorthShoreLI~!! :-)

Imagine Maryland getting the high total. Guess I'd best check on a friend in Fredericksburg!


Our total here was 12.75" and for some reason our driveway plow guy never came. I hope he's okay!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
429. originalLT
6:53 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
Storm placement and Precip. shield looking pretty good at 00Z GFS. Maybe 4-6" in Sw CT.?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
428. originalLT
6:47 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
Thanks for your work Gaara. Hey I made lucky eleven!--In the top half!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
427. Jmedic
6:00 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
Snowing moderately in Confluence PA. WWX advisory with forecast 2-5 inches through tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
426. Gaara
3:48 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
SNOW CONTEST RESULTS

After a lengthy review, I have discounted the Mt. Storm, WV (and other) reports for being way over the height limit based on google maps elevation estimates and thus the winning public information statement location is:
Glyndon, MD: 26"

AT LONG LAST (this is the fifth contest, believe it or not) we have a tiebreaker! PattyNorthShoreLI's bullish estimate of 22" edges out Seattleite, who went with 19". Excellent guesses by all of the top 7 and many of the others.

Results, in terms of decreasing distance from Glyndon.
All estimates made with this tool.

1. PattyNorthShoreLI: Hagerstown, MD - 22" (ZL198, 538ft) - 49.555 miles
2. Seattleite: Hagerstown, MD - 19" (JM978, 538ft) - 49.555 miles
3. BaltimoreBrian: Harrisburg, PA - 21" (JM974, 320ft) - 55.264 miles
4. skook: Reading, PA - No total (JM967, 305ft) - 75.871 miles
5. JazzChi: West Chester, PA - 18" (JM804, 446ft) - 84.183 miles
6. Astrometeor: Luray, VA - 21" (JM986, 1010ft) - 104.585.miles
7. NYBizBee: Allentown, PA - 18" (PC959, 440ft) - 105.155 miles
8. jerseycityjoan: Paterson, NJ - 24" (ZL233, 112ft) - 171.567 miles
9. TheRasberryPatch: Chester, NY - 20" (ZL181, 572ft) - 187.002 miles
10. Gaara: Hamptonburgh, New York - 23" (N/A, 384ft) - 190.894 miles
11. OriginalLT: Newburgh, NY - 22" (PC952, 423ft) - 203.539 miles
12. danielb1023: Poughkeepsie, NY - 23" (ZL183, 230ft) - 216.273 miles
13. h2oskt: Danbury, CT - 25" (PC953, 397ft) - 223.721 miles
14. FlyingScotsman: Pittsfield, MA - 23" (JM991, 1039ft) - 277.590 miles
15. Keeperofthegate: Pittsfield, MA - 27" (JM783, 1039ft) - 277.590 miles
16. TheF1Man: Westfield, MA - 24" (ZL215, 148ft) - 280.825 miles
17. Blizzard92: Northampton, MA - 25" (ZL212, 190ft) - 293.973 miles
18. vdb0422: Amherst, MA - 28" (ZL182, 295ft) - 300.683 miles
19. TropicalAnalystwx13: Brattleboro, VT - 17" (JM782, 633ft) - 321.851 miles
20. ListenerVT: Putney, VT - 22.5" (ZL213, 404ft) - 329.265 miles
21. Bluestorm5: Lewiston, ME - 25" (ZL180, 217ft) - 466.826 miles
22. Flakmeister: Lincoln, ME - 17" (JM982, 220ft) - 587.492 miles
23. GeorgiaStormz: Lincoln, ME - 24" (JM969, 220ft) - 587.492 miles

Patty, Congratulations! I will PM you and you can give your charity a shot-out! Donation will be made by 2/21.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
425. weathergeek5
11:01 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Snow and ice collapses roof at WGAL, knocks local station off the air

Link
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
424. bwi
8:00 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
DC in full melt

Mostly Cloudy
52°F
11°C
Humidity32%
Wind SpeedNW 6 mph
Barometer29.62 in (1003.0 mb)
Dewpoint23°F (-5°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill50°F (10°C)
Last Update on 14 Feb 2:52 pm EST

Current conditions at
Washington DC, Reagan National Airport (KDCA)
Lat: 38.86°N Lon: 77.03°W Elev: 16ft.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
423. tlawson48
6:11 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 417. zotty:


That's pretty crazy. What happened? I was a pup then and don't remember anything about it, but then again in 1987 weather events weren't covered like they are now...


4 to 6 six inches of rain fell on deep snow pack with all major rivers frozen solid. Total disaster. 200 year flood. Hundreds of bridges washed away. Thousands of homes flooded. A wooden blockhouse fort built in the 1740s was washed away. Still the measuring stick for flooding in Maine. Probably rivals the 2011 Irene floods in Vermont.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
422. weathernewbie
6:08 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
I see my picture didn't come through properly l try to post it again with report on my area - after i do more shoveling!
Member Since: September 26, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 48
421. originalLT
6:02 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Total up here for me in Stamford at my house, 9" plus 3" more or 12" total.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
420. listenerVT
4:37 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
We're getting some of the wind gusts now. Does that mean we're finally getting the heavy snow band?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
419. listenerVT
4:34 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Philly, that's great to hear! Weather is not only a fun thing to connect over, it's also very practical and wise! This is a good legacy to pass along.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
418. listenerVT
4:32 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
It's still snowing up here. But so far, here's what we have:







This was my first glimpse out the window this morning, which shows the new snow atop our old snow:
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
417. zotty
3:53 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 414. tlawson48:
The ice jam issues we had up here in the flood of 1987 can still be seen in the river bottoms if you know where to look. Slowly rotting piles of massive trees seemingly in the middle of the forest. All shoved there by the force of the ice.


That's pretty crazy. What happened? I was a pup then and don't remember anything about it, but then again in 1987 weather events weren't covered like they are now...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
416. zotty
3:50 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 399. HeavySnow:
11 inches in in the fist round, hours of drizzle compacting the snow and then 3 inches with the second round for a total of 14 in Annandale, VA. Only 10 left or so. Giant igloo appeared in my yard though. Yay!


Yay indeed! I was worried about you when there was nothing but radio silence...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
415. TheF1Man
3:37 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 409. Blizzard92:

I see a possible moderate mix/snow event for Tuesday with then warmer weather and rain by next weekend. There are signs that the warmth does not last too long with March being a cold and stormy month but we will see. I think we hit the 50s, maybe only briefly, next weekend. Given the dense snow pack with heavy ice on the bottom, it will probably be around for quite a while. I wonder how thick the river ice is getting!


Ugh I think I'm going to wave the white flag at this point...and March will be February version 2?

My sister is reporting from DC that her school is closed AGAIN. She said the official statement read "adverse road condition."

Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
414. tlawson48
2:50 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
The ice jam issues we had up here in the flood of 1987 can still be seen in the river bottoms if you know where to look. Slowly rotting piles of massive trees seemingly in the middle of the forest. All shoved there by the force of the ice.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
413. Zachary Labe
2:47 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 411. tlawson48:
I just hope we don't get a massive warm up with a ton of rain, the ice jams would be epic...

I hope so too, but it is looking pretty darn warm for that period. Hopefully, we see models back off on the warmth.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
412. TheRasberryPatch
2:45 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 409. Blizzard92:

I see a possible moderate mix/snow event for Tuesday with then warmer weather and rain by next weekend. There are signs that the warmth does not last too long with March being a cold and stormy month but we will see. I think we hit the 50s, maybe only briefly, next weekend. Given the dense snow pack with heavy ice on the bottom, it will probably be around for quite a while. I wonder how thick the river ice is getting!


I haven't been across the river in a couple of weeks, but the pack of ice build up on the west side of the train bridge was incredible
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
411. tlawson48
2:44 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
I just hope we don't get a massive warm up with a ton of rain, the ice jams would be epic...
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
410. tlawson48
2:43 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Up in Maine river ice and lake ice are thick enough that double axle dump trucks are plowing roads out ice shacks!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
409. Zachary Labe
2:42 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 407. TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - it's getting close to nowhere to put the snow with large hills of snow around the driveway and sidewalks....hahaha

Do you still expect a warm up next week and for the rest of the month? How long do you think the snow will hang around?

I see a possible moderate mix/snow event for Tuesday with then warmer weather and rain by next weekend. There are signs that the warmth does not last too long with March being a cold and stormy month but we will see. I think we hit the 50s, maybe only briefly, next weekend. Given the dense snow pack with heavy ice on the bottom, it will probably be around for quite a while. I wonder how thick the river ice is getting!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
408. bwi
2:41 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 396. Blizzard92:
It sounds like most areas came in with the expected 2-4" from the ULL. While many of the high resolution models last night were showing much higher amounts, you have to keep in mind the setup, temperature profiles, and influences of convection.


We had a couple inches of heavy snow in DC round 2, and it clung to branches and knocked power out several times for short periods at my house, but then it changed back to sleet and fairly heavy rain. Pretty wild night.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
407. TheRasberryPatch
2:38 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Blizz - it's getting close to nowhere to put the snow with large hills of snow around the driveway and sidewalks....hahaha

Do you still expect a warm up next week and for the rest of the month? How long do you think the snow will hang around?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
406. Zachary Labe
2:35 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
12z NAM... For my LSV friends, it looks like you could do quite well (maybe 3-6" in some areas).

This is a very good H5 and H7 vort track for the Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster corridor.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
405. tlawson48
2:34 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Barometer at 980 mb and rising ever so slightly in Sanford, Me. Flat dead calm, so the center of the low must be fairly close by and should pull away soon.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
403. NEwxguy
2:08 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Morning,hope we can get our streets cleaned up with all the flooding going on,before our next round tomorrow.Some roads were under 4 or 5 inches of water.This winter has been relentless,I'll say that much.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15591

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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