Operational Forecasting Techniques for the February 5-6 Winter Storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:41 AM GMT on January 31, 2014

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Zachary Labe
1/29/2014
Operational Forecasting Techniques for the February 5-6 Winter Storm

To create a weather forecast requires the use of an infinite amount of data and guidance. With the technological advances over the last decade, meteorologists can now predict weather forecasts with a reasonable accuracy in a two week or so lead time. This is a remarkable advance in the atmospheric sciences community. However, there are times when the basics of weather forecasting and analysis get lost to an instant gratification of colorful model maps.

This blog takes a new approach. The new approach is simple; to provide a forecast seven days in advance in total ignorance of model output. I will arbitrarily use Philadelphia International Airport (KPHL). And I will arbitrarily select the dates of February 5th and 6th. Yes, I selected those dates because I know there will be a middle latitude low impacting the Northeast. You could say that defeats the purpose of this blog, but please bear with me.

The following forecast will produce a minimum and maximum temperature for both February 5 and 6. It will also produce an estimated 24 hour QPF measured each period from midnight to midnight. It will not utilize any model guidance. No ensembles, no operational, no mesoscale models. However, it will use real-time data provided by global synoptic upper air and surface maps along with upper air balloon soundings, radar/satellite analysis, and access to previous climatological data for the year.

It is critical to note the current weather pattern over the last few weeks in Philadelphia. Due to data processing, analysis is only available as early as the January 1-15 period.

(Courtesy of NRCC)

The middle of January is the coldest climatological point in the year

Normal(s) for January 29 KPHL:
Maximum- 41F
Minimum- 26F
Average- 33F

It is evident through the NRCC maps that an anomalously wet and cold period has occurred during the month of January for much of the northern Middle Atlantic. Given this is the heart of the meteorological winter, snow is a threat in any forecast that is below normal temperature-wise in association with above normal precipitation. This can be verified by the following values...

Snowfall for KPHL
January Total- 25.9"
Seasonal Total- 37.1"
Average January Snowfall- 6.4"
Average Seasonal Snowfall- 19.3"
(Averages based on the 1971-2000, 30 year mean)

1977-1978 is the 10th snowiest season on record for KPHL with 40.2". Therefore, we can assume with a near 90% certainty that this winter season will fall within the top 10 snowiest winters on record. January has been a remarkable month and is also now the third snowiest on record for KPHL.

Temperature-wise the last 15 days of January have also been consistently well below normal temperature wise with the following statistics...

1) Only two days featured lows with a temperature above 32.
2) The average mean temperature was -6.7F below normal.
3) Temperature extremes included a maximum of 51F and a minimum of 4F.
4) 7 days had highs of 32F or below.
5) 10/15 days featured a below normal mean temperature.

We can now conclude with certainty that a remarkably cold and snowy pattern has prevailed in the Philadelphia area during the month of January. We will make the assumption that this is consistent for other nearby reporting climatological stations in the northern Middle Atlantic (we know this is not always true). You will notice many assumptions are made in a forecast not utilizing computer model guidance.

Looking at the past seven days, temperatures have struggled to reach freezing and measurable snow accumulations occur with a striking consistency on about every third day. The last measurable snow fell on January 29, 2014 with 1.0 inches. The current snow depth at KPHL is 3.0 inches.

Now that we have a basic picture of the temperature and precipitation trends over the last few weeks, lets zoom out to some present data (4:30pm 30 January 2014).



(Courtesy of Intellicast)

These maps cover most of the basics ranging from satellite temperatures to current temperature anomaly trends. We can infer several things about this data. A trough is deepening over the northern Plains. We will assume that the trough axis is centered is the heart of the coldest temperature anomalies placing it right around North Dakota. An upper level ridge is currently moving into California and ejecting a shortwave out of the southwest into the eastern Rockies bringing rain and snow to some areas. A cold front is draped across the Great Lakes ahead of the next trough. This is allowing a shortwave that appears to be similar to an alberta clipper moving through northern Michigan. It will bring light snow to those areas and continue advancing east. Looking at the latest water vapor loop, we can see significant dry air across the Northeast. Therefore, it is unlikely any significant measurable QPF fall across the Northeast. We can expect this clipper to begin to shear apart. 24 hour temperature trends support this analysis.

(Courtesy of PSU e-wall)

KPHL does not launch any weather balloons. I have selected KIAD for the next closest station. The current upper air sounding does not show anything too remarkable. The entire temperature vertical profile is well below freezing. The horizontal (x) axis is the temperature in degrees celcius. Follow the blue linear line in a northeast angle (it is a log graph). Those are lines of temperature. The vertical (y) axis is pressure levels with increasing altitude. The current surface temperature at 12z was -13C which is around 9F. Keep in mind observations in meteorology use zulu time. Use the following formula to translate to eastern time during daylight savings: Zulu-5=ESDT. So this was around 7am, January 30. Therefore, follow the red line vertically. That is your temperature profile aloft (environmental lapse rate). The green line is your dew point vertically aloft. You can see the great differential between the dew point and environmental lapse rate. This signals very dry air and no precipitation likely.

(Courtesy of SPC)

We have a pretty good idea of the current synoptic weather pattern over the United States. Low pressure ejecting out of the southwest into the central United States. A trough sinking south through the northern Plain. Meanwhile, a wave over Florida will allow rain showers to continue to stream east as the trough over the east coast begins to depart. Over the next three days, we can expect all of these systems to interact and transfer east. We have a pretty darn good idea what will happen during this period. The primary weather influence will be the s/w surface low moving into the Midwest where another round of snow is likely. Ahead of the next trough, temperatures will begin to warm for the east (including the KPHL area)

Let's zoom out even further. Looking at the globe as a whole is a bit difficult in the meteorological field due to lack of data and observations. Mesonet and satellite images are very limited outside the United States. However, one can look at long wave patterns to determine active storm periods across the contiguous United States. I will exclude those messy details from this blog.

The current teleconnection readings for 29 January 2013:
AO- -0.45
NAO- +0.93
PNA- +0.96
AAO- -.43

We cannot look at the model ensemble forecast for global teleconnections. However, we will use the present numbers in determining our forecasts. For many, those numbers above do not really mean much. They are just seemingly random numbers, when in fact they a general derivation of the description of climatic features in different parts of the globe. For instance, the NAO is commonly referenced; it is a fluctuation between sea level pressure differences between the Icelandic low and Azores high. A large pressure differential is often derived to a positive (+) anomaly reading. Based on the above readings alone, we can conclude a significant amount of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere. A ridge is likely across the western United States with a trough in the east. But with the positive NAO is a lack in blocking in the pattern. Simply, this prevents large scale middle latitude cyclones from slowing down enough to buckle the jet and move up the east coast. Other indices can be used to look at long waves including analyzing monsoonal patterns in Asia, analyzing convection near the Hadley cell, and following ENSO trends across the equatorial pacific.

So using all of these above techniques, we need to come up with a specific forecast for the February 5th and 6th periods. We know quite a bit of broad information. We have a fairly good idea above the current weather pattern, and nothing screams any dramatic changes in the short term. It seems that the cold and wet pattern will continue over the east coast based on this data. Often, this type of forecast can be referred to as following persistence. So based on our data, it would seem that another trough is moving into the east coast in the 5-7 day time period. This is support by global teleconnections. We'll forecast below normal temperatures. Given this is 7-days in advance, we will temper the below normal anomaly to only a few degrees below normal. The high percentage of days with highs below 32F is pretty stark. Let's also add in the threat of precipitation. Given the recent wet pattern, and seemingly active weather pattern across the USA, it is probably a safe bet that precipitation will fall at some point during those two days. Which day? Who knows. If there is the threat of precipitation, we probably won't be seeing much radiational cooling from katabatic winds given extensive cloud cover and light winds. We will keep lows from dropping too far.

Forecast KPHL:

February 5: High of 33. Low of 24. QPF total of 0.25"
February 6: High of 33. Low of 24. QPF total of 0.25"

Using pure climatological information, real-time observations, and global wavelengths, this is about the best guess we can make. And no, there is no typo. There is no information to determine details for individual days so that is why the forecast is the same for both. We are following the cool, wet persistence that is strengthened our other larger-scale observations.

Okay, we can see it is basically throwing a dart in forecasting the weather more than three days or so in advance without the use of model guidance. The image below is the GFS ensemble mean for February 5. We can note the 500mb jet, 500mb height anomalies, and a spaghetti plot for 1000-500mb thicknesses.

Clearly this does not line up with our forecast. But the ensemble mean is a forecast in itself. I am currently enrolled in this semester, Atmospheric Dynamics and Synoptic I. We are applying mathematical equations to understand the algorithms that go into these models. It is a remarkable feet that we even have any super computers such as these. For some of the climate models, millions of mathematical equations run just to produce one output.

Now for a few quick thoughts of mine... I will be attending the American Meteorological Society conference from January 31-February 6. I will be sure to post updates from the events. If anyone else is also going to be down there, be sure to get in touch with me!

I have looked a bit closer at the setup for multiple waves for the upcoming week. Given the current orientation of the incoming waves, I am expecting many precipitation type issue events. In fact, some areas may not squeeze out any snow out of these waves over the next seven days. I do think the potential is there for one wave to produce significant snow. I place this wave in the February 8-10 time frame. Even so, that is also likely to have precipitation type issues. This pattern though is very good for northern New England where I believe they will see anomalous amounts of snow over the next two weeks. Elsewhere, it will be a gradient boundary flow. Probably north of 40N is the best to be in this type of setup. Although all is not lost, as that one wave will probably be widespread snow. Freezing rain will be a major concern in the interior for many of these events. I expect multiple dangerous ice storms for those areas. This pattern is not anything the one we are coming out of. It will be much more reminiscent of a moderate Nina February composites. Check out a warmer version of February 2007. Best bet is to enjoy the warm weather this weekend and take a break from forecasting. Precipitation types are always a crapshoot until a few days before the event. I think odds for above normal snowfall are very high for the interior and northern New England with anomalies declining as one moves south and east. Nevertheless, it will be an active period.

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2013-2014 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- Dusting
Monthly Total (December)- 9.6"
Monthly Total (January)- 10.3"
Monthly Total (February)- 9.0"
Seasonal Total- 28.9"

(Snow Storms Stats)
Trace - November 8 - First trace of snow - Lake effect snow shower
Dusting - November 12 - First snow on the ground - Anafront
1.5" - December 8 - First inch of snow - WAA double barrel low
4.3" - December 14 - Miller B - Changed to freezing rain/sleet
1.3" - December 17 - Alberta Clipper
2.0" - December 26 - Surprise squall/clipper
4.8" - January 2-3 - Miller B Coastal
1.5" - January 10 - SWFE all snow
3.1" - January 21 - Redeveloping clipper with heavy snow along I-95
6.0" - February 3 - Wet snow from coastal low
1.5" - February 5 - All sleet accumulation with 0.3" of freezing rain
1.5" - February 9 - Light snow with Alberta Clipper

(Advisories Issued)
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 9.6F on 1/7/2014
Lowest Low Temperature- -3.1F on 1/7/2014
Wind Chill Advisories- 3
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Cornell University (950ft elev.) Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 3.7"
Monthly Total (December)- 16.4"
Monthly Total (January)- 18.5"
Monthly Total (February)- 8.0"
Seasonal Total- 46.6"

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99. WeatherBeaten
2:45 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Wow. For days they'd been predicting a coating to an inch today on Cape Cod. You should see it coming down and accumulating right now. I'm sure they would have cancelled school with snow like this. As it is, I'll have to pick up my daughter in it. Thanks, Weather Underground and the Boston channels who were wrong (for a change).
Member Since: March 13, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
98. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:13 PM GMT on February 10, 2014
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
97. TheRasberryPatch
12:21 PM GMT on February 10, 2014
1.0" of snow for yesterday afternoon snow
0.05" was the moisture content

Another cold morning. This has been one cold Winter. Or should I say Fall and Winter

Campbelltown, PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
96. LansdaleTim
12:13 PM GMT on February 10, 2014
Quoting 91. PhillySnow:
It's amazing how much impact there was from that little storm. Under-reported, really. Hope everyone gets their power back and not too much damage done.


I agree PhillySnow... we were without power for 18 hours, and I consider myself lucky. still trees and power lines down in Chester county. every hotel I drove by on my way to work this morning was full of Electric Company trucks from all over the country. Hoping for all snow from this storm, we don't need more ice.
Member Since: February 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
95. Pcroton
1:44 AM GMT on February 10, 2014
2.5" and still snowing in TF, NJ.

NWS offices pulled the trigger on strongly worded HWOs in Upton (6" + wording) and Mount Holly for Wed/Thurs.

Very good model agreement and we're now inside the 72 hour window.

By this time the models for today's storm had already backed way off around the 96 hour mark.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
94. bwi
1:27 AM GMT on February 10, 2014
Just a dusting today at my house (near DC, 10 miles NNE). Looking forward to analysis of Wednesday/thursday.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
93. PattyNorthShoreLI
12:48 AM GMT on February 10, 2014
Blizz any initial thoughts on the Wed/Thursday potential?
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
92. Zachary Labe
12:46 AM GMT on February 10, 2014
Family reporting 1.5" back in Linglestown, PA today from today's snow. Up here in Ithaca, NY we received about 1.0"
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
91. PhillySnow
11:09 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
Quoting 86. Matlack:


My brother and his wife finally got power back Friday night but their daughter and family were still out yesterday. They didn't call me and I found out through social media on Friday and I could have had a generator out to them the next day! Doylestown was extremely hard hit with falling trees.
It's amazing how much impact there was from that little storm. Under-reported, really. Hope everyone gets their power back and not too much damage done.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
90. bwi
11:08 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
This would be a nice outcome
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
89. bwi
10:53 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
I starting to believe in the Wed-Thursday storm. Looks like a pretty classic track. HPC says we're looking at 3/4" of precip, and for today anyway, the models looking cold enough for all frozen.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
88. TheRasberryPatch
3:12 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
Quoting 87. cchamp6:
TRP how is your golf game these days? After a few years of not playing very much I got back into it this past summer. Joined a new club nearby and was lucky enough to win another Club Championship. I realized how much I miss playing on a regular basis. I am looking forward to playing this season. My son and I actually chipped balls yesterday off the pavement into the 15" of snowpack in the backyard. We are getting desperate I guess. LOL


Too funny CC. My game is getting better each season. I actually got my handicap down to an 8, but then had a late season lapse in swing and it is now at 10. Each year I figure out a bit more and more. The last couple times out in November I was hitting the ball well. My last time was a 78 with a double on 17. UGH. Since the first of December my club has been closed because of snow.
We had one day where 9 holes were open in mid January and then the next day it snowed.

Congrats on another CC. I am not there yet, but like I said I think I have my swing figured out and am so ready to play to shoot like I did the last time out.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
87. cchamp6
2:03 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
TRP how is your golf game these days? After a few years of not playing very much I got back into it this past summer. Joined a new club nearby and was lucky enough to win another Club Championship. I realized how much I miss playing on a regular basis. I am looking forward to playing this season. My son and I actually chipped balls yesterday off the pavement into the 15" of snowpack in the backyard. We are getting desperate I guess. LOL
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
86. Matlack
1:43 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
Quoting 71. PhillySnow:
Hi Listener! TRP is correct - Pcroton is sharing models and explaining several times a day, which is very helpful with all the winter activity we've had. I've been trying to keep up with both blogs, and it's hard.

It's very odd here - many people without power for days and a lot of damage done. We lost several branches and limbs, and even had a large tree limb fall on our neighbor's roof. So it's costing us money, but thank God no one was hurt. And we just trimmed that tree this fall! Guess we need a different tree service, cause that's something major to miss. I'll be happy to do without any further ice. And still I hope for snow!

Much more snow here than there was in New Hampshire. Figures. :)


My brother and his wife finally got power back Friday night but their daughter and family were still out yesterday. They didn't call me and I found out through social media on Friday and I could have had a generator out to them the next day! Doylestown was extremely hard hit with falling trees.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
85. h2oskt
3:38 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Quoting 84. rod2635:


What's keeping larger expanse of Lake Michigan and Ontario open vs the others? Presence of adjacent large cities and urbanization?


It has to do with depth, currents and elevations. Michigan and Ontario are both deep. Both have a more active current and both are at lower elevations than Superior.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 50
84. rod2635
1:26 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Quoting 82. Pcroton:


(Lake Superior) is 92 percent frozen, toppling a 20-year-old record of 91 percent set on Feb. 5, 1994. That statistic helped total Great Lakes ice cover soar, and we can expect to see more form in coming days.

(snip)

As of February 5, 2014, the entire Great Lakes system is now reportedly covered 77 percent with ice, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Last week at this time the ice cover was 66 percent. The 77 percent ice cover now still lags behind 1994, when the entire Great Lakes system had an average ice cover of 84 percent on February 5.

Link to Article


What's keeping larger expanse of Lake Michigan and Ontario open vs the others? Presence of adjacent large cities and urbanization?
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 258
83. TheRasberryPatch
1:15 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Great post Pcroton. I love reading about the Lakes. Must be from....
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
82. Pcroton
11:53 PM GMT on February 08, 2014


(Lake Superior) is 92 percent frozen, toppling a 20-year-old record of 91 percent set on Feb. 5, 1994. That statistic helped total Great Lakes ice cover soar, and we can expect to see more form in coming days.

(snip)

As of February 5, 2014, the entire Great Lakes system is now reportedly covered 77 percent with ice, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Last week at this time the ice cover was 66 percent. The 77 percent ice cover now still lags behind 1994, when the entire Great Lakes system had an average ice cover of 84 percent on February 5.

Link to Article
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
81. TheRasberryPatch
3:09 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Thank you listener. I will keep the margins in mind
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
80. cchamp6
1:33 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Decent snowpack here in Bantam Ct. Morning lows were -5 today and -6 yesterday. Clear and calm always bottoms the temp out here in my little valley at 880'. Cold pours down off the higher terrain in my area and pools near my house. Cant believe how much wood I have burned this season.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
79. listenerVT
5:33 AM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 71. PhillySnow:
Hi Listener! TRP is correct - Pcroton is sharing models and explaining several times a day, which is very helpful with all the winter activity we've had. I've been trying to keep up with both blogs, and it's hard.

It's very odd here - many people without power for days and a lot of damage done. We lost several branches and limbs, and even had a large tree limb fall on our neighbor's roof. So it's costing us money, but thank God no one was hurt. And we just trimmed that tree this fall! Guess we need a different tree service, cause that's something major to miss. I'll be happy to do without any further ice. And still I hope for snow!

Much more snow here than there was in New Hampshire. Figures. :)



Thanks, Philly. Just seemed odd that no one posted here in 24 hours. I've been on the run and need to take more time to look beyond my nose. LOL!

Thanks for all you do, Pcroton. Loved the bells!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
78. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:16 AM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 64. Pcroton:
Yep the Weekend fell apart quickly so there's not much to talk about. I'm still beating the dead horse in my entry but I enjoy tracking any and all weather. It doesn't have to come here for me to put time into it. That's how deep my hobby runs.

Remember, at one point everyone thought a big storm was coming, so don't let it discourage you.

More weather will come and those who get active when the weather is active will return!

Unfortunately, the bell Zach wished he could have rung for this weekend...as do all of us...




....is now reduced to....




--------------


Wed/Thur system will bring people out of the woodwork come Monday-ish.

By then maybe we can have a little faith in the models, which have proven to us once again that outside of 48hrs of the onset of an event, they have been very poor recently.

I like that :)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
77. listenerVT
5:14 AM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 63. TheRasberryPatch:
Good morning listener. I think a lot of people have left Blizz's blog after the storm because there really isn't any information about upcoming weather. I have seen a lot of posters on Pcroton's blog.

I knew you told me once before, but can you tell me again on what paper you use to print your outdoor pictures, please.


I use a product made by Neenah Paper. Their website is a pain to use, but I just found a site that is faster, sells the exact same cards, and they even cost less than on Neenah's own site! Here's the link:
http://www.thepapermillstore.com/classic-crest-so lar-white-folded-panel-cards-no-5-1-2-baronial-4-1 -4-x-5-1-2-folded-80-lb-cover-smooth-250-per-packa ge.html

The matching envelopes are size A2. There are a lot of other sizes as well.

You'll have to fiddle with the margins on your computer/printer combo. But begin by trying a photo that is about 3.22" x 4.44" and setting your margins something like Left margin 0.52 and Top margin 0.56, give or take 0.02.

Enjoy!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
76. Pcroton
2:29 AM GMT on February 08, 2014
I wouldn't worry much about the GFS thermal profiles. Warm bias.

Monday would be a good day to start looking at details of the model runs. They've been very poor outside of 48 hours with this pattern so far.


There's still a chance NJ/DE gets clipped by tomorrow's southern wave and that Sunday night into Monday could produce a moderate snowfall across the region.

A lot of activity to watch.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
75. bwi
1:53 AM GMT on February 08, 2014
Evening GFS shows the low in a perfect place, but no cold air.

I sort of believe this scenario as most likely!



Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
74. Pcroton
12:15 AM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 71. PhillySnow:
Hi Listener! TRP is correct - Pcroton is sharing models and explaining several times a day, which is very helpful with all the winter activity we've had. I've been trying to keep up with both blogs, and it's hard.

It's very odd here - many people without power for days and a lot of damage done. We lost several branches and limbs, and even had a large tree limb fall on our neighbor's roof. So it's costing us money, but thank God no one was hurt. And we just trimmed that tree this fall! Guess we need a different tree service, cause that's something major to miss. I'll be happy to do without any further ice. And still I hope for snow!

Much more snow here than there was in New Hampshire. Figures. :)



Ice is no good. I had my fill of that with the Valentines 2006 storm that destroyed this area.

There's been some comments floating around that if the 0Z Euro solution were to be the way to go that it would not feature just some quick change from snow to rain. Cold air could be trapped at the surface and we could unfortunately see an ice event inbetween the changeover.

Given the track of the storm in that scenario it would put the freezing rain in the same general areas that just got it. So a lot of trees you thought survived you would find out didn't.

In instances like this I sometimes feel if a second storm of damage is going to hit - it might be best served hitting the same place rather than expanding the region of overall damage.

Sandy creamed us, the heavy wet snow blizzard came in and took down the rest of the trees a week later. We were already hit so....it wasn't the biggest deal in the world. Would it have been better if we didn't get it? Sure. Would it have served a purpose going on to cream an area that escaped Sandy? Absolutely not.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
73. Pcroton
11:09 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Quoting 70. TheRasberryPatch:
That last post Pcroton is too funny. I love it


Gotta have a little spirit after the models for this weekend's system teased us so.

But we might be able to save the big bell for Wednesday instead.

I'll just use the ole "Model trying to resolve energy, they picked Sunday but then moved it to Wednesday. It happens" bit.

Sound, logical, and reasonable thought process!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
72. Pcroton
11:07 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Quoting 69. originalLT:
Right now Henry M. has rain for the coast, and snow well inland , for Wed/Thurs storm. Go figure?


0Z Euro solution.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
71. PhillySnow
11:02 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Quoting 62. listenerVT:
Hmmm, seems like everybody spent the day shoveling and/or sleeping after the big storm.
Hi Listener! TRP is correct - Pcroton is sharing models and explaining several times a day, which is very helpful with all the winter activity we've had. I've been trying to keep up with both blogs, and it's hard.

It's very odd here - many people without power for days and a lot of damage done. We lost several branches and limbs, and even had a large tree limb fall on our neighbor's roof. So it's costing us money, but thank God no one was hurt. And we just trimmed that tree this fall! Guess we need a different tree service, cause that's something major to miss. I'll be happy to do without any further ice. And still I hope for snow!

Much more snow here than there was in New Hampshire. Figures. :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
70. TheRasberryPatch
9:19 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
That last post Pcroton is too funny. I love it
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
69. originalLT
7:31 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Right now Henry M. has rain for the coast, and snow well inland , for Wed/Thurs storm. Go figure?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7064
68. goofyrider
7:30 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
LTV what are you driving with 11 inches of snow?
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2646
67. bwi
7:27 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
66. bwi
7:23 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
looking at 12z operationals, ECMWF looks a bit nasty for Wed, with nice high in upper new england and a low moving up pretty close to the coast. GFS more out to sea. In between probably a good bet for now?

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
65. zotty
6:55 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Quoting 64. Pcroton:
Yep the Weekend fell apart quickly so there's not much to talk about. I'm still beating the dead horse in my entry but I enjoy tracking any and all weather. It doesn't have to come here for me to put time into it. That's how deep my hobby runs.

Remember, at one point everyone thought a big storm was coming, so don't let it discourage you.

More weather will come and those who get active when the weather is active will return!

Unfortunately, the bell Zach wished he could have rung for this weekend...as do all of us...




....is now reduced to....




--------------


Wed/Thur system will bring people out of the woodwork come Monday-ish.

By then maybe we can have a little faith in the models, which have proven to us once again that outside of 48hrs of the onset of an event, they have been very poor recently.


that little bell makes me hungry
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 717
64. Pcroton
6:40 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Yep the Weekend fell apart quickly so there's not much to talk about. I'm still beating the dead horse in my entry but I enjoy tracking any and all weather. It doesn't have to come here for me to put time into it. That's how deep my hobby runs.

Remember, at one point everyone thought a big storm was coming, so don't let it discourage you.

More weather will come and those who get active when the weather is active will return!

Unfortunately, the bell Zach wished he could have rung for this weekend...as do all of us...




....is now reduced to....




--------------


Wed/Thur system will bring people out of the woodwork come Monday-ish.

By then maybe we can have a little faith in the models, which have proven to us once again that outside of 48hrs of the onset of an event, they have been very poor recently.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5134
63. TheRasberryPatch
12:35 PM GMT on February 07, 2014
Good morning listener. I think a lot of people have left Blizz's blog after the storm because there really isn't any information about upcoming weather. I have seen a lot of posters on Pcroton's blog.

I knew you told me once before, but can you tell me again on what paper you use to print your outdoor pictures, please.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
62. listenerVT
4:26 AM GMT on February 07, 2014
Hmmm, seems like everybody spent the day shoveling and/or sleeping after the big storm. One friend of mine in Ambler, PA is still without power.

We actually got sunshine today, and saw some blue sky. Ah, but it sure feels about 10 degrees colder than it actually is, even without wind. I suspect it's the moisture in the air. 7F now and feels like at least -3F.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
61. listenerVT
4:20 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Quoting 55. listenerVT:


Click here for an article about the weather in Northern New England on Wednesday


Ha! The local guy's snow map was WRONG. Up here where he predicted 3-5", we got more like 8" and have 11" on the ground. The local schools did not take a snow day so my 4-6pm watercolour class was not cancelled. The town plows concentrated on the main roads, leaving the back roads largely unplowed, so it was a white knuckle sleigh ride to class and later to home. But I made it there and back again. And when I got home I got to shovel! I love to shovel!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
60. zotty
6:36 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Blizz- how was the conference?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 717
59. tanda35
5:03 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Reporting in from Wilmington, De. looks like the rain is finally ending, but not before causing a 1/4" layer of ice on everything. 580,000 out of power in southeastern Pennsylvania, PECO saying it will be days before everyone gets power back on. I still have power, but with temps falling off back into the teens tonight, I feel for those poor folk in Pennsylvania. Gonna be a cold night.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
58. ICanHazSnoDay
2:13 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
crowe, I'm just east of you. How are you faring so far? Central Saratoga County, just about 4.5" and the radar looks like it's going to be ending soon.
Member Since: December 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
57. crowe1
9:35 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
It's 25F and just started snowing here in Broadalbin NY (40 mi NW of Albany)about 4:20am, solid coating already.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 920
56. Jmedic
5:41 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Pretty moderate sleet/freezing rain in Confluence PA (Southern Somerset County). Temp is currently 28.8 at an elevation of 1336'. Ice is beginning to accrete on branches.
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55. listenerVT
5:21 AM GMT on February 05, 2014


Click here for an article about the weather in Northern New England on Wednesday
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54. bwi
7:33 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Well, HPC says disregard the operational GFS for the weekend system, and 12z EC looks like a southern out to sea scooter? We'll see.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
53. bwi
5:32 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Regarding the weekend storm...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 07 2014 - 12Z TUE FEB 11 2014

...OVERVIEW...
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH A
DOMINANT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BECOMES A
FLAT...BUT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DOWNSTREAM...THE RATHER
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND A RELOADING OF
COLD...CANADIAN AIRMASSES...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
SOUTHERN STREAM THAT STARTS OUT WITH GULF OF MEXICO
INFLUENCES...THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PACIFIC INFLUENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY (11 FEB 2014).

...PREFERENCES...
WPC CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PLANTED IN A UKMET/ECMWF CAMP...WHICH
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE OF THE CATALYST FOR CHANGE (TRANSITION) IN
THIS NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN--THAT BEING--THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MUCH OF THE SPREAD BACK 4-7 DAYS AGO
WAS RELATED TO THE EROSION OR WEAKENING OF THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE
ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. AND FOR THE MOST PART... THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE "THE MORE CORRECT" GUIDANCE IN DETERMINING WHEN THE
TIMING OF THE EROSION WOULD OCCUR AS THE STRONG BUT SHARP
SHORTWAVE TRACKED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE LOWER 48. PER THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS SHARP
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUKON TERRITORY (AT LAST
GLANCE_4/12Z TIME FRAME).

IN TERMS OF THE PRESENT...AND THE DAY 3-7 FORECAST AHEAD...THE
SPREAD ALOFT REMAINS TIED TO THE OUTCOME THIS SHARP SHORTWAVE AS
IT MIGRATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES DAYS 3-4.
BY DAY 4...SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY-MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
ALOFT...LESS SHEARED...LIKE THE 4/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ITS
MEAN...AND IN TURN...ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE AND COASTAL WAVE(S) TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING BUT DIFFUSE FRONTAL
DRAPE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THERE'LL BE A CONTINUED SHEARING OF
THIS WAVE...IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR INVOF 120W AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. BUT AT THE MOMENT...VERY LITTLE SUPPORTS THIS
NOTION. AND BECAUSE ALL THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A 'GENERAL CONSENSUS' WITH YET ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
(DAY4) AND TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY (DAY6).

I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY
THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND
BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW
ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S
A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)
SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER
THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SAT/D4 INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN/D5. A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/D6 AND WELL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUE/D7. PRECIPITATION COULD BE ROBUST... OR COULD BE NEXT TO
NOTHING...FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

IN THE WEST... A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
ADVERTISED BY THE WEEKEND WITH LINGER EFFECTS INTO NEXT WEEK...
CENTERED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ALL
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION OF WA/OR/CA WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN... AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CARRYOVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY INTO OR/NV.

TEMPERATURES NEARLY CONUS-WIDE WILL STAY RELATIVELY COLD WITH ONLY
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.


VOJTESAK
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
52. PhillySnow
2:17 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
25F here and we're getting ready for ice and potential loss of power. I'll be brushing snow off tree limbs today and stockpiling snow just in case it's needed for the freezer. (Good suggestion, P!)

The way the storms have overperformed this winter, we just have to be ready for the colder solutions - which in this case doesn't seem to be all snow.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
51. listenerVT
6:43 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
Quoting 45. Blizzard92:
Parents reporting 6" today back home in Linglestown. Looks like major snow/sleet/freezing rain setup for the LSV on Wednesday. I am very concerned given the common CAD in the Harrisburg area. There will be huge problems. And yes, I am ringing the bells for Monday...


Wow! Ice is bad news. I'm eager to hear which bells you're ringing!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
50. listenerVT
6:42 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
Quoting 42. Pcroton:
Hi listener, sorry for the delay. No not even close. Everything changed so much with the Wednesday event it looks like you won't be seeing much snow out of it now that it's come so close to the NJ area.

My thoughts were based back when the GFS had the low in Ohio - I was thinking the final track of the low could be a NE PA to Hudson Valley track - which could have BOMBED your area.

But that ship sailed with the continued guidance shifting further south and east.

I think your NWS has it just right.



Thanks! If the latest guidance holds, I may get to go to my painting class and still get snow as well! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
49. NYBizBee
3:54 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
Quoting 45. Blizzard92:
Parents reporting 6" today back home in Linglestown. Looks like major snow/sleet/freezing rain setup for the LSV on Wednesday. I am very concerned given the common CAD in the Harrisburg area. There will be huge problems. And yes, I am ringing the bells for Monday...


Monday already! O boy... Lol
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations