Moderate Snows across I-95 Corridor

By: Zachary Labe , 8:00 PM GMT on December 09, 2013

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Another shortwave will ride along a frontal boundary draped across the east coast. A widespread moderate precipitation shield will develop in the cold sector bringing a widespread snow accumulation to the busy Northeast during the day Tuesday especially impacting the morning commute.

Snow Map...


"Current Northeast Surface Station Plots"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"


Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...


"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2013-2014 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- Dusting
Monthly Total (December)- 2.0"
Seasonal Total- 2.0"

(Advisories Issued)
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 30F
Lowest Low Temperature- 14F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Trace - November 8 - First trace of snow - Lake effect snow shower
Dusting - November 12 - First snow on the ground - Anafront

1.5" - December 8 - First inch of snow - WAA double low

(Cornell University (950ft elev.) Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 3.7"
Monthly Total (December)- 1.6"
Seasonal Total- 5.3"

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282. TheRasberryPatch
1:31 PM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 270. NYBizBee:


If i remember loads of ice storms that winter?


Yep, I lived in northern suburbs of Baltimore and we would get a quick 3" of snow at 18F and then it would turn to sleet and then freezing rain with temps the same or creeping into the low 20's. I've never seen that before and still haven't.
It stayed cold. The snow removal trucks could do nothing about the ice build up. We were riding in ruts on the Baltimore beltway for at least 3 weeks. I think we had 3 storms very similar in a 2 week period or so.
Secondary roads were worse. Salt couldn't touch the ice buildup.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
281. PhillySnow
1:17 PM GMT on December 13, 2013
29F with very grey skies and a bit of wind.

I was thinking the same thing yesterday about the snow sticking around. It feels like a "real" winter.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1236
280. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:14 PM GMT on December 13, 2013
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
279. Zachary Labe
1:03 PM GMT on December 13, 2013
Looks like a pretty sizable snowstorm is headed for the Northeast especially north and west of I-95. I am pretty busy the next few days, but I will post a snow map with a map blog today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:01 PM GMT on December 13, 2013
nam 06z hr12 to 72
sfc rad

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
277. Dabbio
11:54 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
NYC is smack dab on the line, O.K., too close to call, but I'm going to go with 4.5" in Brooklyn before being slushed away Sunday.
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
276. NYBizBee
5:08 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 272. Blizzard92:

There was a sharp snow and ice line that winter. Down in Harrisburg we had one of our snowiest winters on record, but just over the Mason-Dixon line they saw a lot less snow and much more ice. More or less our upcoming pattern looks cold with a parade of winter storms. Things look very active and very cold towards the last week in the month.


We did see a blizzard in december back in 2010, does the pattern favor all coastal storms?
Member Since: February 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:53 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
NAM 00Z RUN SFC TEMPS 2M

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:46 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
NAM 00Z RUN SIM RAD

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
273. Zachary Labe
4:29 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 271. Bluestorm5:


Remember, not all of that is snow. Computer models sometimes calculate freezing rain and sleet as snow, I believe.

Yep, that is correct. Those new Weatherbell maps seem to have their snow accumulation algorithms incorrect. They have been consistently way too high all year.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
272. Zachary Labe
4:28 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 270. NYBizBee:


If i remember loads of ice storms that winter?

There was a sharp snow and ice line that winter. Down in Harrisburg we had one of our snowiest winters on record, but just over the Mason-Dixon line they saw a lot less snow and much more ice. More or less our upcoming pattern looks cold with a parade of winter storms. Things look very active and very cold towards the last week in the month.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
271. Bluestorm5
4:25 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:
Gonna be a snowy 10 days across the NE US per the Euro.



Remember, not all of that is snow. Computer models sometimes calculate freezing rain and sleet as snow, I believe.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
270. NYBizBee
4:18 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 269. Blizzard92:
Weather pattern for the rest of December looks very 1994-like.


If i remember loads of ice storms that winter?
Member Since: February 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
269. Zachary Labe
4:10 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Weather pattern for the rest of December looks very 1994-like.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
268. StormTrackerScott
4:04 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Gonna be a snowy 10 days across the NE US per the Euro.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3318
267. washingtonian115
3:59 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 263. doom22015:


Well, here in the DC area we aren't being given much reason for getting excited. Our forecast is for slush, and not even much of that. A dud storm.
I agree.D.C won't be seeing anything.A real waste,because over the last three years it's like as soon as we get a storm with lots of moisture the warm air comes in to invade.Something I believe D.C will see all to common this winter.I'm having 010-011 winter flashbacks!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
266. Gaara
3:53 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
I may put up a snow contest depending on the 12Z run tomorrow if anyone wants to play.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
265. zotty
3:03 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 264. TheRasberryPatch:
Not much snow loss the past few days. Even with the sun out the last couple of days.

.


TRP
I was thinking the same thing about the snow on my way home this evening. Sun angle is as low as it gets all year... Its pretty remarkable to see.

Where's PP aka color the world? That's a guy who made the blog tick, haha!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 743
264. TheRasberryPatch
2:17 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Not much snow loss the past few days. Even with the sun out the last couple of days.

State College doesn't mention accumulation for the LSV in their forecast discussion. They do mention 6" North of I80. The snow map does mention 4-6" for LSV
They do mention a slight warm up each day next week and then a significant warming trend next weekend. I guess we will see.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
263. doom22015
1:23 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Quoting 262. WillHershey:
Wow this blog is dead with the impending snowstorm for Saturday. State College just released there snow map and they have moderate snow fall for central Pa. What's ur all thoughts?


Well, here in the DC area we aren't being given much reason for getting excited. Our forecast is for slush, and not even much of that. A dud storm.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
262. WillHershey
1:14 AM GMT on December 13, 2013
Wow this blog is dead with the impending snowstorm for Saturday. State College just released there snow map and they have moderate snow fall for central Pa. What's ur all thoughts?
Member Since: December 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
261. Pcroton
10:54 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Now people talking new guidance coming in colder again and snowier?

Going to stop looking for the evening and wont be around tomorrow during the day as I will be at work in NYC.

If the new guidance is right then I'd up my ideas 1-2".

As the new HPC graphics show there is tight clustering of contours between nothing and heavy amounts. The storm shifts just 20 miles south people expecting 1" could go up to 6" (and also the other direction is true).

Well, pretty much out of thoughts on a day I knew the models wouldn't be much worth trusting...but it appears a trend has begun this evening.

Is this like the trend on late Saturday that made us think Sunday was heading towards a significant event? Only to be proven to be erroneous model runs?

We'll see. Glad it's trending tonight...that gives all day tomorrow for these things to settle in.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
260. Pcroton
10:31 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
I think we'll see things flip flop around some more Dabbio - for at least the next 18 hours before we see forecasts lock in. Even then in border zones I would expect tweaking to potentially occur Saturday as a NOWCast.

Based on what has occurred today and what is right now I feel this way:

1-4" South and Central NJ and Philadelphia and Philly SE
3-5" Central NJ along TPK along with NW of Philly into NE NJ and NYC (City, as always, has trouble accumulating, could be just 2-4" but it may be cold enough on Saturday to overcome).
6-12" NW NJ, Westchester, Northern CT
12-20" Central Hudson Valley into interior New England.


Of course I don't believe what we've seen today is the final outcome of the event (in some cases, maybe no where near)... so this is just a FUN GUESS based off of "what if the storm was tomorrow and this was our last guidance" so to speak.


Meanwhile, all WFOs except Albany and Taunton have put out snow maps on the event.

If anyone wants graphics overload just peek at my blog entry.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
259. Dabbio
10:24 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
I'm starting to believe this 3"-5" for NYC, mainly on the basis that the warm Atlantic nearshore isn't going to stay THAT warm forever under this continuing pump of cold air.
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
258. Pcroton
9:03 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 256. bwi:
Both the 12z NAM and GFS keep the 0c line at the surface west and north of DC -- that's my benchmark for impact. It can snow all it wants, but if it melts at the surface, no impact. In this case, I'm expecting mostly rain, but we'll see.


Yeah I have been bit a number of times going back to last March... getting too caught up in cold temps aloft and snow falling... only to wind up with slush on the ground. It can't happen during daylight hours with borderline temps. If those temps don't drop immediately after the onset of snow it just won't stick.

Or, it gets to about an inch, then stays an inch despite constant snow raining down on it - which happened to me Sunday.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
257. Pcroton
9:02 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Mount Holly released their snow map for NJ. Upton changed theirs. State college still has none. Baltimore/DC has one out.

12Z GFS and 12Z Euro are quite similar with much higher totals in response to a stronger/colder system. Even the 12Z NAM went colder and snowier but is the far lesser of the others.

Seems like after all that talk of the GFS being too weak, warm, no snow, etc? They now get a model run showing it being strong and snowy? And they say it's wrong.

So I don't know what they're looking for if they don't like either solutions available. Hopefully all that clears up tomorrow.

In the end none of this matters as nature will do what it's going to do...but it would be nice to know what is coming. Tracking is half the fun after all.

-----


Here's an interesting map from State College showing the PA average annual snowfall totals.

LINK HERE

Poor choice of map colors as it'll take you a second to realize what you're looking at.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
256. bwi
8:51 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Both the 12z NAM and GFS keep the 0c line at the surface west and north of DC -- that's my benchmark for impact. It can snow all it wants, but if it melts at the surface, no impact. In this case, I'm expecting mostly rain, but we'll see.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
255. PhillySnow
6:52 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 250. Pcroton:

I too believe in dry slots, unforseen warmth, lift leaving the area, and sloppy systems failing to phase properly.
Ha!! That totally describes the past 2 -3 winters in Philadelphia. Gotta laugh.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1236
254. Pcroton
6:35 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Thanks for the commentary btw beell.




Anyone see this? Redfield NY 44" today/yesterday?

https://twitter.com/tristateweather


Sun reflecting nicely off of Sunday's snowfall, especially in MD into PA. You can also see the little bubble of low snow in Ocean/Monmouth county NJ bending inwards from the coastline.



Forgot to mention on yesterdays early morning commute in once the train got into northern Monmouth County around Middletown the existing snowpack went to 2-3" and was fairly uniform right through Newark.

In NYC there was nothing on the streets...just dry with a few ice puddles.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
253. Pcroton
6:28 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Well, that certainly shows the hand of God turning the faucet off.


Where? That's an easy one my friend.

From Philly right through Central NJ (and right over my house LOL).

As long as their are negative storm factors involved you can bet they will align with my general area.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
252. beell
6:22 PM GMT on December 12, 2013

700mb rh @ 66 hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
251. beell
6:19 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Synoptically speaking, it's there. Where "there" ends up is a decent question.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
250. Pcroton
6:14 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 249. beell:
We can post a map as Beell has and analyze it but the fact remains the map isn't of value if the model run isn't of value.

I believe in the dry slot, P.
:)


Have you looked at the same map from the 12Z GFS and compared.

(honestly, curious, I haven't lol...I just think the models are "for fun" today)

I too believe in dry slots, unforseen warmth, lift leaving the area, and sloppy systems failing to phase properly.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
249. beell
6:10 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
We can post a map as Beell has and analyze it but the fact remains the map isn't of value if the model run isn't of value.

I believe in the dry slot, P.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
248. Pcroton
5:47 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
We know we're going to model watch so let's model watch.

12Z is much stronger and colder.

gfs Thru 84hrs snow depth


12Z NAM was as well.


I think we can expect this back and forth thing to go on. It's when you see subsequent model guidance similar to previous you can believe it has become stable and perhaps hints at an actual solution. Until then it's just one model run contradicting the previous.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
247. Pcroton
3:36 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Tinton Falls, NJ
We are 24F, after a low of 20F.

We had an eighth to a quarter inch of salt accumulation this morning.

Short term advisory called for accumulating snow showers, local forecast for upper 20s and rain showers (yep, you read that right), and the radar scopes are empty with a mix of sun and light cloud cover.



I know the NWS offices feel the models are overdoing the warmth. I know the rain snow lines are important. We all know it is always a forecasting nightmare.

We can post a map as Beell has and analyze it but the fact remains the map isn't of value if the model run isn't of value.

NWS is telling us these model runs are not of any value. After seeing them bounce around tremendously between a non-event and a cataclysmic explosion I am inclined to believe them.

However I am not inclined to say a model run is crap and then put out a bold forecast in contradiction to them especially when they've been more than steady going back 16 days on the event.


ALL THAT SAID my thoughts are this and won't waver no matter the model run today. I may post future model runs and images but I won't be posting them in a "Oh see, THIS is the one" type way. Just posting, just to post.


HERE IT IS:

We have a sloppy system forming that is going to take time getting together. We have 4 very strong components with it in a sub-tropical jet, a western caribbean disturbance, a strong upper level system out west, and strong polar energy in Canada.

These forces are going to combine to form a significant storm system.


HERE IS THE EXACT PROBLEM:

Where and When does this energy consolidate, intensify, and them bomb.

It will ABSOLUTELY consolidate, intensify, and bomb. We know this, I think there is a very slim chance this does not happen.


THE MEAT OF THE IDEA:

If we see this come together over NC/VA, intensify in MD-DE, bomb off of NJ? We all get a big strong storm NJ northward. Huge totals.

If we see this come together over MD-DE, intensify off of NJ, bomb off of New England? Forget about it for NJ/NYC, etc. We will get our few inches of snow and then sleet and rain.


For elaboration on this I put up illustrations on my entry.


I still stick to my guns:

TODAY--->Frustration, posting of models, hating or loving them with no REAL basis for doing so.
FRIDAY--->Trustworthy Guidance (but still split), A good idea of maximum potential accumulations, no idea on placements.
SATURDAY--->Trustworthy Forecasting
LATE SATURDAY--->Final knowing on Rain/Snow lines due to storm evolution.



Also to note: Don't use 6Z/18Z off run guidance until you're within 24 hours of the event onset. They are not full model runs and do not incorporate the full range of available data (most notable, soundings) in their runs. I have also noticed a recent trend where 6Z guidance is very weak and 18Z guidance very strong with solutions. It's just not a good thing. Especially with a questionable consolidation timing problem as we have with this system.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
246. TheF1Man
3:34 PM GMT on December 12, 2013


Current forecast from upton. Would love to avoid any changeover but 4-6 is enough to enjoy in my first weekend back.

Over break I think I'll work on a way to create an automated map of all the offices combined. I know someone posted a manually created one before. Very useful to look at.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
245. danielb1023
3:20 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 243. zotty:
P- seems about right to wait. But I can't help posting the discussion from the NYC office...

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
all eyes turn to low pressure moving from the Southern Plains to
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys from Friday night into Sat...then redeveloping
along the NC coast Sat night and heading NE across the 40n/70w
benchmark Sunday morning. GFS/European model (ecmwf) are good agreement on the low
track and intensity...and on the strength and position of an
Arctic high to the NE that will provide a low level feed of cold
air. Light overrunning snows should develop during the day on Sat
as moisture overruns the nearby Arctic front...then the heaviest
precipitation should occur Sat night via stronger isentropic lift and
700 mb-8 frontogenesis ahead of the approaching low. As far as thermal
profiles go...both models are likely too warm in the boundary
layer...especially inland where cold air damming should hang in
longer than model forecast...and even at the coast where snowfall
should counteract warming on easterly flow. They also disagree on
thermal profiles aloft especially late Sat night...with the European model (ecmwf)
cold enough for an all snow event northwest of NYC...and snow mixing with
or changing to rain for NYC and Long Island...and the GFS showing
a change to freezing rain and sleet inland late Sat night. Since
the better part of the precipitation will have fallen by the time p-type
begins to change from snow...these differences should not have a
major impact on snowfall amounts...so think most inland sections
and all of southern CT should see snowfall amounts of 5-7
inches...with NYC and Long Island seeing amounts of 2-4 or 3-5
inches. Confidence is increasing on these amounts...and a Winter
Storm Watch may eventually be issued for most areas northwest of NYC and
southern CT.


That seems pretty aggressive 2+ days out......I like it!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:16 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 238. TheRasberryPatch:
I've got a question - Why are we not seeing clippers come through with these arctic fronts? Are the fronts that dry?

beell - I won't mind a dry slot. I need to cut down a tree for my house and this weekend wasn't looking good a couple of days ago.
clipper regime may begin after this current system being depicted by models passes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
243. zotty
3:03 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
P- seems about right to wait. But I can't help posting the discussion from the NYC office...

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
all eyes turn to low pressure moving from the Southern Plains to
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys from Friday night into Sat...then redeveloping
along the NC coast Sat night and heading NE across the 40n/70w
benchmark Sunday morning. GFS/European model (ecmwf) are good agreement on the low
track and intensity...and on the strength and position of an
Arctic high to the NE that will provide a low level feed of cold
air. Light overrunning snows should develop during the day on Sat
as moisture overruns the nearby Arctic front...then the heaviest
precipitation should occur Sat night via stronger isentropic lift and
700 mb-8 frontogenesis ahead of the approaching low. As far as thermal
profiles go...both models are likely too warm in the boundary
layer...especially inland where cold air damming should hang in
longer than model forecast...and even at the coast where snowfall
should counteract warming on easterly flow. They also disagree on
thermal profiles aloft especially late Sat night...with the European model (ecmwf)
cold enough for an all snow event northwest of NYC...and snow mixing with
or changing to rain for NYC and Long Island...and the GFS showing
a change to freezing rain and sleet inland late Sat night. Since
the better part of the precipitation will have fallen by the time p-type
begins to change from snow...these differences should not have a
major impact on snowfall amounts...so think most inland sections
and all of southern CT should see snowfall amounts of 5-7
inches...with NYC and Long Island seeing amounts of 2-4 or 3-5
inches. Confidence is increasing on these amounts...and a Winter
Storm Watch may eventually be issued for most areas northwest of NYC and
southern CT.
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 743
242. bwi
2:13 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Forecasting a high of 31 now for today -- yesterday's forecast for today was 25 or 26. It's already 28. I was overdressed coming in to work.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
241. NEwxguy
1:57 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
So now it looks like the northern and southern streams are not phasing.Hmmmm,I get the feeling this is not going to be the major snow up here that I thought,of course still need to see this thing develop,so waiting until end of day tomorrow to get a feel for this.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
240. Inyo
1:48 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 234. Astrometeor:
Might as well post this here while I'm around to do so:
Fog + Wind + Terrain = Snow


I saw a tiny snowstorm like that once next to a river on a very cold early winter morning. I literally think it was 'river effect snow' - the river was steaming like mad and producing ice crystals that fell on the ground nearby. there was no snow to speak of, in fact I think it was clear above the river mist thus the cold night.
Quoting 238. TheRasberryPatch:
I've got a question - Why are we not seeing clippers come through with these arctic fronts? Are the fronts that dry?

beell - I won't mind a dry slot. I need to cut down a tree for my house and this weekend wasn't looking good a couple of days ago.


We are at least getting mini-clippers in Vermont, had one last night with localized snow squalls. Was hoping for 4 inches, got 1 inch on top of the other inch we got recently. Maybe another inch or two tonight and tomorrow. And for the coastal storm over the weekend... a handful more inches. But it's far too cold for the snow to melt so we are slowly building up a snow pack. It's been cold, too. 8 degrees right now as I type, was 2 degrees at the airport (sometimes we're colder than them, sometimes they are colder than us). Absolutely beautiful though, I'm going to wait until the temperature rises a couple of degrees then bundle up and walk to work in the new snow :)
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
239. Pcroton
1:25 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
I think an active southern jet is not conducive for clipper type systems affecting our region TRP the way we think of the dead of winter January-February clippers where we see a system in Alberta, say now, and come early morning we're getting an inch or two of dry snow.

Instead there's a collaboration of souther stream energy and the polar disturbances loosely being involved with them...so they lose their identity in the clipper travelling through the mid atlantic aspect.


Well looking at everything I say today is an awful day to trust any model runs or forecasts.

I think Friday is going to be our day where we will know our maximum potentials but even then - we won't know exactly where to expect those changeovers and when.

As of now it looks like me here in central NJ wont get much snow and then will get rain....it appears the problems are confined to north jersey and nyc in that respect.

By tomorrow we will know along the lines of max accumulation potential - and then we can muse "Well if the line comes south, then central NJ gets 6-8" but if it goes north then Manhattan is 1-2" and Westchester is the 6-8"

Type....thinking.


Upton released a snow map btw. I put everything together in my entry and if you're looking for my usual image dumps they will be there so we don't clutter things up. I don't think today will pay to model watch but we certainly will.

We all want snow and it is inevitable if 12Z guidance comes in with a quicker developing system with more snow - we will deem it correct and run with it.

I encourage folks not to do that - either way - today. (warmer or cooler solutions)...but my thinking is a sloppier warmer system seems more likely.

I see people touting the Candian which wraps up the storm like a middle atlantic nor'easter....and well, sure, looks great, would love it to happen, but the other models say a messy sloppy system, overrunning snow, change to rain, and by the time the system winds up it is interior new england's problem.


Will of course chime in later as more maps, models, and other thinking from all around comes to light as the day wears on.

Today --> stare and be frustrated.
Friday --> decent model solutions, maximum potential realized.
Saturday --> rain snow lines drawn with confidence.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
238. TheRasberryPatch
12:42 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
I've got a question - Why are we not seeing clippers come through with these arctic fronts? Are the fronts that dry?

beell - I won't mind a dry slot. I need to cut down a tree for my house and this weekend wasn't looking good a couple of days ago.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
237. beell
11:59 AM GMT on December 12, 2013
Le Slot de dry


12/12 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, rh-valid @ 72 hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
236. Pcroton
11:41 AM GMT on December 12, 2013
Good Morning.

This storm was eternally modeled to bring warmth into the Philly-NYC corridor and after flirting with the idea the models were wrong it seems the NWS offices have given in and forecast as much - mostly.

Upton was all snow all the way but has now given into the idea of a switchover at least for the city.

Mt Holly was always discussing a mess.

The way it looks we will start as snow down here in central NJ and head over to rain. Further north we'll see delays in changeovers - and that's going to be a forecasting nightmare in figuring that out.

I'll post some imagery and maps on my blog a bit later this morning.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8291
235. beell
11:40 AM GMT on December 12, 2013
Some general synoptic ideas.

Two shortwaves swinging out into the plains this weekend will bring some snow to Illinois and Indiana. First one originates from a southern stream closed low that will open up east of the Rockies. Close on its heels is a northern stream shortwave. Both will probably deamplify in the confluent flow of the two jets over the midwest and Ohio Valley.

If true, surface cyclogenesis will be hard to come by and warm air advection (WAA) up and over the frontal boundary will supply the moisture for the wintry precip. Northward advance of the WAA regime will turn the snow to rain over the mid-Mississippi Valley and the central Atlantic states. A well-defined dry slot following the two mid level impulses should kill the snow as far north as northern VA and southern NJ by Sunday.

Eventual formation of a surface low off the NJ coast will begin to wrap the precip onshore and back across upstate/western NY. New England should be the "big" snow winner for this system.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
234. Astrometeor
3:11 AM GMT on December 12, 2013
Might as well post this here while I'm around to do so:
Fog + Wind + Terrain = Snow
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10331
233. Astrometeor
3:09 AM GMT on December 12, 2013
Quoting 229. FrenchKheldar:
Hello everyone, noobie question from someone who does not have much weather science background and who is a new transplant in the NE. Is what happening right now in Albany, NY, snow squalls very localized but with decent intensity, can be categorized as lake-effect snow? I don't see any particular system associated with this precip but the wind comes from the west and so maybe the humidity is carried from Lake Erie. Anybody care to explain? Thanks in advance !


Quoting 232. originalLT:
Welcome FrenchKheldar, You hit it pretty well, however I believe along with Lake Effect snow, an arctic front is coming through generally from NW to SE, thus enhancing these snow squalls or snow showers. They might even make it down to my area, Stamford CT. overnight. Stamford is in SW CT.--about 35miles northeast of NYC.




LT's analysis is correct, weak front coming through. Kinda bummed down here, too bad it isn't stronger, could get some real snow for once.
Forecast discussion mentions the front all the way down here in TN:

COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. PARTIAL HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED ALONG THE FRONT AND ALSO A NARROW BAND
OVER KY. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL REACH FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS OF TN BY 12Z.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10331
232. originalLT
3:01 AM GMT on December 12, 2013
Welcome FrenchKheldar, You hit it pretty well, however I believe along with Lake Effect snow, an arctic front is coming through generally from NW to SE, thus enhancing these snow squalls or snow showers. They might even make it down to my area, Stamford CT. overnight. Stamford is in SW CT.--about 35miles northeast of NYC.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7599

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