Lake Effect Snows and Cold Temperatures...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:15 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

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"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2013-2014 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- Dusting
Seasonal Total- Dusting
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- --
Lowest Low Temperature- --
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Trace - November 8 - First trace of snow - Lake effect snow shower
Dusting - November 12 - First snow on the ground - Anafront

(Cornell University (950ft elev.) Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 0.1"
Seasonal Total- 0.1"

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298. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:47 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
297. originalLT
7:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Thanks "P" for posting that loop on post #293 from JB.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7522
296. Pcroton
7:06 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
From Dave Curren (NJ12)

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
295. Pcroton
7:03 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 11m

So here is the latest ensemble storm track graphic from SREF. Easier to read. We're getting clobbered!


======================

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294. Pcroton
6:56 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
NAM at Wed 7am, from Gary Sz





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293. Pcroton
6:52 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
CMC hour by hour precip loop

From Bastardi.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
292. Pcroton
6:45 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
And...we're off. It's coming together quickly.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
291. TheRasberryPatch
6:23 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Quoting 286. Inyo:
Well, even if there's only rain it will be a fun one to watch. Indoors. With a big warm cup of coffee or cold beer while tossing wood into the Woodstove. One thing I am thankful for this year is not having to travel on Wednesday!


Yep, it should be a good time to have a nice fire going in the woodstove with a beverage of choice.

Still below freezing for the day.

18F was the low this morning
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
290. Pcroton
5:59 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
RUC analaysis.

First frame is 3hr pressure falls in MB. Widespread and disorganized at the moment but you will begin to see a consolidation point of activity ahead of the storm track as the day goes on and the low organizes. THere is a hint as to where that will occur - note the pocket south of Lousiana to the NW of the low center. Probably there.

No doubt, second frame, strong winds and tight convergence at the surface.




It's going to be a very intense storm. Curious to see once the low is better developed later today what the models then do with it's intensity as it heads up the coast. There's still details to be worked out with that.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
289. Pcroton
5:55 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Quoting 286. Inyo:
Well, even if there's only rain it will be a fun one to watch. Indoors. With a big warm cup of coffee or cold beer while tossing wood into the Woodstove. One thing I am thankful for this year is not having to travel on Wednesday!


Very fun storm. It's been entertaining model wise. It's amazing watching the cyclogenesis. It's going to be a lot of fun seeing the heavy rain pounding we're going to get.

The unfortunate side is all the travelling that people will do during the storm. There's going to be a toll as a result.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
288. Pcroton
5:54 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Quoting 285. aquak9:


I've heard the salted caramel is tasty-


I am fully committed to strongly brewed ground expresso coffee these days.

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287. Pcroton
5:51 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Wow... South of Houston.






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286. Inyo
5:48 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Well, even if there's only rain it will be a fun one to watch. Indoors. With a big warm cup of coffee or cold beer while tossing wood into the Woodstove. One thing I am thankful for this year is not having to travel on Wednesday!
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
285. aquak9
5:36 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Quoting 280. Dabbio:
I'm losing confidence in all of the models. Yes, I know, restoring my confidence plus $2.85 will get me a cup of Starbucks.


I've heard the salted caramel is tasty-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25935
284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:19 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
RAP 15Z RUN 500MB VORT HR 18



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
283. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:19 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
00Z GFS 500MB VORT HR 60



NAM 00Z HR 54 500MB VORT



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282. doom22015
5:16 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
TRP,
I remember a Thanksgiving eve where we got some noteworthy snow in the mid-Atlantic. I think it was in Nov 89. Not that the snowfall amounts were huge or anything (probably not even measureable in DC), but this one is famous in my family because without paying much attention to the forecasts we set out to drive from the DC burbs to Short Hills NJ.

Just a few flakes in the air late afternoon when we set out from DC, but during the evening it picked up, and it was snowing like crazy on the Jersey turnpike. It wasn't til about 2:30 am that we arrived, after seeing a car fully engulfed in flames following a collision, numerous cars stuck, and having my own exciting episode of driving sideways at about 50mph. We made it OK, which I would like to credit to my own skillful driving, but honestly was probably more a matter of dumb luck.

Anyhow, we can get decent November snowstorms, but it just doesn't happen often.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
281. Inyo
3:13 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Well... looks like it is going to be a mess rather than snow dump, but one heck of an intense mess. snow to freezing rain to rain, then flash freeze back to snow for a few inches in Vermont. Thanksgiving morning the view out the window will probably be much the same as now - 2 inches of snow - only this time with a big layer of ice beneath. No mention of heavy winds which seems surprising with a storm of this intensity but perhaps that is because the low will be right over us? In any event I'm glad we will have nothing we need to do Wednesday except watch the storm.

On the downside, I dismantled our gutter system that brings water away from the back of the house to our rain garden, because yesterday's 40 mph winds and snow drifts were dislodging the gutters and blowing them about. If we get 2 inches of rain and the ground thaws, it could be bad news for getting water in our basement, but I am reluctant to set the things back up as they would probably freeze in place or be damaged by the possible icing. Oh well.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
280. Dabbio
2:57 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
I'm losing confidence in all of the models. Yes, I know, restoring my confidence plus $2.85 will get me a cup of Starbucks.
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
279. TheRasberryPatch
2:22 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Yep, Pcroton - just another late Fall nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic. No rubbernecking people. Just move along...hahahahaha

I can say it until I am blue in the face....we only get big snowstorms in January and February around here . In my lifetime, I don't recall hardly any snow on the ground before Christmas and even into New Years Day. It was either cold and dry or we had cold rains. The snow usually doesn't come until after January 1st. Probably I could count on one hand.

I am waiting for Blizz to give his prediction for December 5th.

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
278. NEwxguy
2:02 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
This going to be the first heavy rain,since end of July for me.For me here in eastern Mass,the winds are going to be a big factor.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
277. listenerVT
1:21 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
It's just 5F here.


At 3:41am, a Winter Storm Watch was issued:

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* Locations... the entire north country

* hazard types... snow... sleet... freezing rain.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation 6 inches or more is possible... along with a trace to a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Maximum snowfall rate... 1 to 2 inches per hour... mainly Wednesday night.

* Timing... light snow will begin to fall late Tuesday night... changing over to a mix of snow... sleet... rain and freezing rain by Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday afternoon as colder air returns to the area... precipitation will change back to all snow with the best chances of accumulating snow Wednesday night.

* Impacts... hazardous travel conditions can be expected.

* Winds... southeast winds 10 to 20 mph... becoming north 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph by Wednesday night.

* Temperatures... lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid 30s.

* Visibilities... down to a half a mile at times in heavier snowfall.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... your local media... or go to www.Weather.Gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5503
276. Pcroton
1:16 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Winter storm cyclogensis is the most impressive weather phenomena there is. In fact it shocks me how many "weather buffs" disappear when the thunderstorms stop firing.

To me this is as amazing as it gets.

Note the west central GOM our developing surface low, the four corners region upper disturbance, northern Minnesota and the polar disturbance
, and note what it's all developing over Texas - our precip shield. Think about what's going into what will blast us all in a couple days.








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
275. Pcroton
1:02 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Pretty bad storm coming our way, folks.


TUESDAY:


WEDNESDAY:
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274. Pcroton
12:59 PM GMT on November 25, 2013

It really does, Goofy. Fantastic map on that website. We have been very dry around here..and I don't recall if SE NY was getting wet while we weren't. Either I forgot or wasn't paying attenion along the way LOL.

Looks like upstate NY got good water that drained into that region.





Well this storm will certainly do a great service to NJ's watersheds.


I was thinking, it's been so very long since we had a fall of arctic fronts october-november, along with those very heavy rain nor'easters leading into winter.

This so far has been the type of fall that was much more common in the 70s and 80s.

You pretty much knew you'd get a handful of windy cold fronts, a couple of heavy rain nor'easters, and then winter would come for January.

It seems we're heading right down that road.

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273. goofyrider
12:27 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
funny haw a few miles changes

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/m aplevels_wide.shtml
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272. Pcroton
12:27 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Looks like the forecast snowfall swath really went west overnight.



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271. Pcroton
12:20 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Quoting 269. TheRasberryPatch:
They even have the LSV for mostly rain. It may start as snow, but will change over to rain. Even at the end they mention rain/snow showers with no real accumulation and expect it to be out of here by 1pm Wednesday. Sounds good to me.
The sooner the storm vacates the better for Thanksgiving travel.


Sounds like a typical December nor'easter doesn't it?

Starting as a mix, heavy rain, ending as flurries/snow showers. Maybe some lucky folks get a coating to an inch. Maybe a hilltop a couple of wet inches.

It was never thought of as anything different for DE, NJ, coastal CT, etc.

But for eastern PA into the Hudson Valley of NY and up into New England? Yeah for a while there the idea was major snow storm. That idea seems gone.

Now it's more western NY/PA and even then up to 10" it looks like. No blockbuster snow event.

This one will be about the flooding rains and strong departing winds.
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270. Pcroton
12:17 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
I don't know if the snowfall component of this system has taken a dump - or what. But these aren't the maps I'd have expected.

Binghamton doesn't even have one issued.







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269. TheRasberryPatch
12:08 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
They even have the LSV for mostly rain. It may start as snow, but will change over to rain. Even at the end they mention rain/snow showers with no real accumulation and expect it to be out of here by 1pm Wednesday. Sounds good to me.
The sooner the storm vacates the better for Thanksgiving travel.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
268. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
*twiddles thumbs* 36 hours until the general onset of the event.

17F, just 1 tick below forecast.

----

Patty, due to the storm track and the inflow we're going to warm enough to stay out of any significant snowfall during the storm.

Unless a dramatic modeling shift occurs (or, to put it more reasonably, the storm takes a track further east than the modeling shows) the most any of us along the coasts - and honestly a pretty decent distance inland as well is in the same boat - is up to 3" of wet snow on the back end of the system.

Even then it has to happen perfectly, the cold air must rush in before the precip shield departs.

I don't think it is going to happen because our surface feature is moving very fast and it's going to take all the precip out of here before the cold rushes in. Maybe in the hills of the far interior.

By the time we change over near the coasts we'll be looking at flurries and/or snow showers. Coating to an Inch would be a good guess maybe? In the lucky areas at that.


Most modeling agrees a low track through the state of New Jersey and most modeling warms us all to near 60 here in NJ. The NWS is going with 40s on Tuesday and 50s on Wednesday.

The NWS has introduced beginning earlier on Tuesday and possibly being frozen precip variety so we need to keep an eye on that.

Our wind threat also seems confined to the storm pulling out of the region - however Eastern New England should be quite windy during the event being east of the Low center - where in this case - the heavy winds seem to be focused at the surface.


------

Keep bouncing that forecast around!


TUESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BREEZY AND NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
RAIN. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES
FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY
WINDY AND COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
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267. PattyNorthShoreLI
4:52 AM GMT on November 25, 2013
Is it possible that this overrunning warmth for Tuesday and Wednesday for coastal sections is overdone? I mean it's 20 degrees right now...
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266. Inyo
12:52 AM GMT on November 25, 2013
The jerk west really was abrupt and surprising. I wonder if it was some kind of over-compensation from being too far east before? I definitely wouldn't count out the chance of very heavy snow, especially inland. There is so much entrenched cold air here, last I looked it was 14 degrees out and getting colder. I know there are several days to go but for anyone west of the storm center it seems like they will be getting a lot of cold air sucked into the storm.
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265. Pcroton
12:48 AM GMT on November 25, 2013
While I don't like the off model runs until we're within 24 hours of an event it's tough to ignore both the similarity of and the eastward shift of the NAM/GFS on the 18Z runs.

I still feel like the western solutions are just a bit too far west with this storm. I don't know what it is but the idea of the heavy snow being so far west is just odd after all that thought and discussion of it being in the Poconos and Catskills. Also throw in model discussions that a lot of people liked the model solutions - but felt the phasing timing was a bit too early - thus turning the storm track a bit too far west.

Well, here's the image.




We're obviously going to see the models fluctuate and thus the forecasting. Tomorrow is and always seemed to be the day that the storm would be evolved enough for the models to be trusted. Nothing has changed there in my opinion.

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264. Matlack
12:17 AM GMT on November 25, 2013
Great right where I'm driving through Wednesday evening.

Quoting 253. PengSnow:
For my area Winter storm watch in effect, it goes as far as Cambridge, OH, so this is pretty far west. Calling for a rain mixture, if this stays all snow we might be well over a foot.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

OHZ040-041-049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ013-020-021 -029-031-073-075-
WVZ001>004-012-021-022-250415-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-
MONROE-LAWRENCE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREEN E-WESTMORELAND-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARIO N-MONONGALIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...CADIZ...
STEUBENVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...
WOODSFIELD...NEW CASTLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...
WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE... UNIONTOWN...
WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...
FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN
312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. STEADIER
SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT.

* PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
263. Pcroton
11:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
For anyone who is watching the evolution along the gulf coast this evening, what we see in east texas and oklahoma is going to move east and dissipate.

As the disturbance in the four corners moves east overnight it will begin to interact with the developing west central GOM surface feature and you then will see the beginnings of our storm and precip shield show up in east Texas tomorrow morning:



RAP 21Z run - Simulated reflectivity.
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262. Pcroton
11:08 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
We maxed at 29F today, ~4F below forecast.

We have dropped sharply and are at 21F with a projected low of 18F. I think we're gunna crack that.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
261. Pcroton
10:46 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Snowfall potential prior to departure has increased a little as the possibilities for 1"+ has risen beyond the coastlines now. You can also get a feel from the discussion wording in my previous post that they are leaving it open to discussion more and more it would seem.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
260. Pcroton
10:33 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Zone forecast products do not seem to echo the severity of the discussion. I am also curious about the complete lack of wind despite models showing some pretty strong wind. Then again we've watched them time and again wait until the last moment to up the wind threat in forecasts recently. I don't know if they are just not confident or what the reasoning is.



NJZ013 (INLAND MONMOUTH)

TUESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
RAIN. BREEZY AND NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
RAIN. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY
AND COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
259. Pcroton
10:31 PM GMT on November 24, 2013







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

A GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY PASSING OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD FAIRLY TRANQUIL BUT QUICKLY RAMP UP
TO SOMETHING RATHER SPECTACULAR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN
REGARDS THE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY MOVED THE TRACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST AND THE CURRENT 12Z MAINTAINS THAT TRACKING.
THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY BRING THE THE SYSTEM INLAND AND MOVE IT
THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART SUPPORTS
A SYSTEM HUGGING THE COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND, BUT THEY ALSO SHOW
VERY ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR ADVECTING IN TOO.

IT CAN NOT BE STATED ENOUGH THAT THE PTYPE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME BEING,
AND AS STATED ABOVE, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING OVER
PORTIONS OF OUR INTERIOR CWA. THIS SETS UP A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE
AND QPF GRADIENT. AN INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD START
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE TO DRAW UP
THE GOMEX MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE THOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY NOT PERMIT MUCH OF IT REACH
THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE UNDER A
STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE
TRICKY.

THE WARMER, MOISTER AIR, WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT CHANGING EVERYTHING OVER TO A LIQUID. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY LAG WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES THUS LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A BETTER PORTION OF THE REGION. WPC HAS PLACE
A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY...AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH DECENT
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING TAKING PLACE.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER
NORTHEAST AS DOES THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND WE START TO CLEAR THINGS
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL FALL AS A LIGHT SNOW AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:04 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
18z gfs hr 33

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:04 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Quoting 256. Blizzard92:

Well it is actually interfering with my plans for getting home for Thanksgiving. This is one rare occasion I am rooting against the snow haha
so I guess ya need it to hook a little more west then
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
256. Zachary Labe
9:28 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Quoting 255. originalLT:
Well Blizz, looks like Wed. storm may have much wider affects for snow up by you, you could be "blasted"!

Well it is actually interfering with my plans for getting home for Thanksgiving. This is one rare occasion I am rooting against the snow haha
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
255. originalLT
9:21 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Well Blizz, looks like Wed. storm may have much wider affects for snow up by you, you could be "blasted"!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7522
254. Zachary Labe
9:16 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Well here on campus we missed all of the lake effect bands. Only ended up with a heavy dusting or so, but the squalls hit the nearest town 3-5mi to the east with 4-6" and also upwards of 10" for a town about 20 minutes away. Quite frustrating to see bands that close, but that is lake effect for ya.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
253. PengSnow
9:04 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
For my area Winter storm watch in effect, it goes as far as Cambridge, OH, so this is pretty far west. Calling for a rain mixture, if this stays all snow we might be well over a foot.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

OHZ040-041-049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ013-020-021 -029-031-073-075-
WVZ001>004-012-021-022-250415-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-
MONROE-LAWRENCE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREEN E-WESTMORELAND-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARIO N-MONONGALIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...CADIZ...
STEUBENVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...
WOODSFIELD...NEW CASTLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...
WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE... UNIONTOWN...
WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...
FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN
312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. STEADIER
SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT.

* PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
252. Pcroton
7:18 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Some may choose to begin adding details this evening, others tomorrow morning. We're close.

I'll leave with this:

Gulf of Mexico surface visible. That's pretty ominous IMO. Quite the spin going on in the west central Gulf...wait until the disturbance over the four corners moves east and this starts to link a little more.




Then the polar disturbance is going to come in and phase?

Yeah, the pieces are there for a pretty good storm coming our way. We'll find out whether or not the timing is perfect soon enough.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
251. PengSnow
7:09 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
hmm.....accuweather for my area this morning went from nothing to 1-3in late morning to 3-6, my guess is that by tonight the weather watches/warnings....hazardous outlook will kick into to effect. NOAA still calling for a 60% chance or rain/snow for Tuesday-Wednesday. Checked where my son will be going on Wednesday....redbank, nj calling for a 90% chance of rain calling for 3/4 of an inch on Tuesday, I expect this is going to go up.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
250. Pcroton
6:53 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
The surface of the Gulf of Mexico is starting to look awfully suspect. Seems to me to be the beginnings of a pretty good cyclonic surface feature.





And the big WV picture with our four important - and seemingly destined to marry - players on the board.




Don't have to look far to see that the Canadian feature is diving in to link up with the Californian feature. Note radar returns over North Dakota showing the quick flow.



It doesn't look like this linkup is going to miss.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
249. Pcroton
6:41 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Thanks, I try, but let's not take it that far (me knowing what I am talking about lol).


Well, the 12Z GFS ought to get the entire world's attention here.

Voila...SuperStorm anyone? Two parter...



Yeah I drew over the 5400 line on the third panel to illustrate the cold air making it in BEFORE the precip departs. Anyone along the coasts want a few inches of snow on the tail end of the event?

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 50 Comments: 7758
248. Matlack
6:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2013
Quoting 231. Pcroton:


You have had a number of adventureous drives over the years haven't you.

I drove from Melbourne, FL to central Nj during the March 1993 super storm. That was the last time I allowed myself to get caught in a time constraint mess like that.



Yes and it looks like a good one! I got some practice time in Thursday in Montana when I greeted this cold air with about 4"of snow. Have no choice with this my father in law broke his leg and my son has to be at work Saturday so I'll be one of the idiots on the road. At least I know what I'm in for.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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