Significant Nor'easter to impact Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:35 PM GMT on February 06, 2013

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Zachary Labe
Posted: 6 February 2013

A northern stream influence will phase with another disturbance out of the southern stream and subsequent cyclogenesis along the New England coast is anticipated during the February 8-9 time period. Significant storm impacts will occur from western New York east to Cape Cod. Given the late redevelopment and associated Miller B-type storm formation, many areas south of the 40N will see little impact from this event. Slow movement and impressive mesoscale banding will result in snow accumulations in excess of two feet for some areas just west of Boston. While too early to declare this a KU event, the entire situation is definitely worth monitoring over the next few days with potential NESIS ratings likely on the order of 2-3.

Current Surface Plot...

(Courtesy of HPC)

February 8-9 Nor'easter
A quick hello after a short hiatus from blogging over the past few weeks; I know many of you are still waiting to hear my thoughts on the American Meteorological Society conference. Eventually I will get around to writing up a quick summary for those interested. Nevertheless, it was a necessary to provide an immediate full update on what will be a very significant nor'easter to impact the Northeast. Blizzard conditions will likely occur across much of the densely populated portions of eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metropolitan region.

The complex and impressively large storm system will build itself in a series of critical puzzle pieces that will fit together to east coast cyclogenesis. A northern stream wave, which is already evident on radar across the northern and eastern Midwest will continue tracking south and east. This weak surface low (not even evident on some surface maps) will track across southern Ohio. A weak H85 low will be associated with this wave and will move into Pennsylvania and extreme southern New York. Therefore WAA at the surface will likely occur under southwest winds despite a strong banana high pressure system to the north. As the northern stream begins to interact with the moisture-filled subtropical jet, another low pressure will begin to take shape off the North Carolina coastline. This is a very typical Miller B type storm evolution.

The low pressure will begin to rapidly deepen and expend its precipitation shield inland. Isentropic lift and weak frontogenic forcing ahead of the S/W in Ohio will spread light snows across western and the southern tier counties of New York State by Thursday night. This precipitation will be primarily driven from the northern stream system. Guidance is suggesting a small window of bombogenesis with pressure falls ~3mb/hr as surface pressures drop to 988mb south of Long Island, NY. A track just inside the 40/70 benchmark is then expected.

Precipitation will be falling in two distinctive shields. One across New York State and the other expanding in the Delmarva with the coastal low. Eventually as the phasing occurs (timing remains uncertain), the radar will take on a different graphic with a strong dominant deformation axis from central New York that will slowly move east spreading heavy snow in its path. There will likely be a large dry slot that will form to the south and east of the deformation axis. It is likely this will impact most of the state of Pennsylvania. As will be noted below, there are a few signs on the latest guidance that this dry slot could impact areas as far east and north as New York City and the Connecticut river valley.

The low pressure will continue trekking northeast and develop several impressive mesoscale bands associated with the CCB axis from New York City northeast to Boston. Guidance suggests high Omega values and near-ideal snow growth with a low, moist dendritic layer. H85s will primary focus around -10C providing an additional support for excellent snow rates during the height of this storm especially for areas just inland towards Worcester, Massachusetts. QPF will likely exceed .5" in a small three window for some areas of central and eastern Massachusetts with therefore associated snow rates exceeding 2"/hr. Elevated instability will be possible along the highest frontogensis and PWATs axis again focused in central areas; therefore thunder snows cannot be ruled out. This signal though may grow as we get closer to the event and 4km HIRES models have a better look at the banding impacts of the storm.

A few current models indicate that as the low becomes vertically stacked, that it may stall for a period of time. It is likely this is an over-amplification error. Therefore the QPF amounts >3" are likely irrelevant to this event. In general the jet flow is still relatively progressive and inhibits these classic KU characteristics.

A widespread and uniform moderate snowfall will occur from western New York east and north to the northern Maine with 4-10" of snow. The best forcing will be south and east along with the best snow growth. Closer to the tightly wrapped east coast low will be an axis of very high snow amounts that may approach two feet in some areas. The highest QPF and snow will likely fall near the Worcester region.

A few concerns of mine still exist for this event. Given the progressive flow if the phase capture occurs a bit later, the secondary low will form farther northeast. Therefore the dry slow will approach the tristate region into portions of even eastern Connecticut. This would also limit the higher snowfall amounts across the southern tier of New York allowing for more WAA as 2m temperatures warm into the mid 30s. Also the exact location of the rain/snow primary lines, especially towards New York City, will be highly dependent on the strength of the deformation axis/CCB. Therefore a high bust potential exists in this region. A few days remain before the event, but by Thursday evening WAA snows will already be moving into western New York. Stay tuned!

Regional Radar...
(Courtesy of Intellicast)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

This is my current rain/snow line...
Pittsburgh, PA - State College, PA - Wilkes-Barre, PA - Mt. Pocono, PA - New York City, NY - New London, CT - Hyannis, MA

***For this event there will not be one defined snow line. Also little to no mixed precipitation is expected given the setup therefore limiting precipitation types to either rain or snow. I chose my line based on a 75/25 split with >75% being snow as the majority precipitation for areas along and north of the line. Therefore while areas will mix with rain to the south, some snow accumulation cannot be ruled out especially for areas in the deformation axis as the system begins to pull northeast into the Gulf of Maine.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Widespread snow accumulations possible in excess of 10" from Buffalo, NY east to Boston, MA.
2. High, damaging winds anticipated along the immediate coast with gale force gusts in excess of 55mph particularly along Cape Cod.
3. Rain/snow mix can be expected in a narrow corridor along the southern periphery of the deformation axis. This may impact the NYC metro area.
4. High snow rates can be expected with model output suggesting up >6"/hr totals for a 3 hour period in New England during the height of the event.
5. Major impacts along I-95 corridor north of 40N where few winter storms have occurred this year to prepare people for winter driving conditions.

Snow Map...


***Snow map posted 3pm 2/6/2013. This snow map is preliminary due to its early posting, but should give a general idea for most locations where the heavier snow will occur. My favored axis for two feet potential is just west of Boston towards the Worcester corridor where high snow rates and excellent snow growth will occur in correspondence to the impressive CCB band. A more difficult forecast for New York City is likely where they will be very close to a dry slot and warmer temperatures. In the end my forecast does abide by a colder approach give the dense air mass over the region and a bit of snow cover. Therefore I am extending some light snow accumulation as far south as Philadelphia where they may see the tail end of the deformation axis. The dry slot will significantly inhibit snowfall over the Middle Atlantic including Maryland, Washington DC, and central Pennsylvania. Warmer temperatures at the surface will also prevail in this region. Nevertheless it is possible for light snow accumulations as far south as the Mason-Dixon line.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Light to moderate rain
Baltimore, MD- Scattered rain showers
Salisbury, MD- A few rain showers
Pittsburgh, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations up to 2-3"
State College PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations 1-3"
Williamsport, PA- Periods of snow mixing with a little rain. Snow accumulations 2-4"
Altoona, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations 1-2"
Harrisburg, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations T-2"
Lancaster, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations T-2"
Philadelphia, PA- Periods of rain mixed with occasional heavy snow. Snow accumulations 2-4"
Allentown, PA- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulations 3-6"
Scranton, PA- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulation 3-7"
Washington, DC- A few rain showers
Wilmington, DE- Occasional rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations 1-4"
Dover, DE- Occasional rain showers
Trenton, NJ- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulations 2-5"
New York City, NY- Heavy snow occasionally mixed with rain. Snow accumulations 3-7"
Poughkeepsie, NY- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 4-8"
Binghamton, NY- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 5-10"
Ithaca, NY- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 5-10"
Albany, NY- Heavy snow and gusty winds. Snow accumulations 10-14"
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow and strong winds. Snow accumulations 10-15"
Concord, NH- Heavy snow and strong winds. Snow accumulations 14-18"
Providence, RI- Heavy snow occasionally mixed with periods of rain. Snow accumulations 10-14"
Worcester, MA- Blizzard conditions expected. Snow accumulations 15-20" with localized higher amounts
Boston, MA- Blizzard conditions expected. Snow accumulations 12-15" with localized higher amounts
Nantucket, MA- Periods of rain mixed with heavy snow. Snow accumulations 3-7"
Hyannis, MA- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulations 4-8"
Burlington, VT- Heavy snow expected. Snow accumulations 8-12"
Portland, ME- Blizzard conditions expected. Snow accumulations 14-18" with localized higher amounts
Bangor, ME- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 8-12"
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
A few computer model differences still exist especially in regards to the evolution of the phasing of the northern and southern streams. The extent and timing of this is critical for forecasts. Currently the NAM is the flattest piece of guidance despite the overly excessive QPF progged once the storm moves east of Cape Cod. 3-4" storm totals will not be occurring anywhere for this event; I do not buy into the storm stalling and being captured theory. I also believe the ECMWF is having a few QPF issues in the extent of the western periphery of the 1" range in New York state. Also it is currently running as the coldest model with 2m temps <0C as far south as the Mason-Dixon line during the start of the event. It is likely there will be enough WAA to allow temperatures to rise into the mid 30s as far north as Williamsport for a short period.

Globals will struggle with the exact positioning and cut-off of the dry slot. I would expect this region to be larger than anticipated on guidance and pose a significantly wrench in forecasting efforts for portions of the Middle Atlantic. In general not many other model contrasts exist at this point as it is a bit too early for HIRES 4km runs.

After the Storm
Quieter weather and little in the way of lake effect snow is likely for the period after this event. We will begin to see the ridge axis slide east across the central United States allowing for milder air to slide in across the east coast. Nevertheless, the air mass only remains marginally above normal so a torch period is not expected. A low pressure will track up through the Great Lakes for the beginning of next week. Some cold air immediately at the surface will allow any rain to fall as freezing rain especially for areas along and north of I-80. Eventually the precipitation will change to all rain north to the Canadian border. QPF amounts will generally be light and less than 0.5" for all areas. The next storm system of interest impacts the region on Valentine's Day. This event poses a bit more of a threat for wintry precipitation. Current wavelengths suggest though that precipitation type will be a problem for some areas at the minimum. At this point a significant east coast snow storm is not likely, but some areas of moderate to heavy snow accumulations are possible. February continues to look farely active with a top heavy northern stream. In response periods of dry, cold air such as that which occurred in January will not affect the Northeast this month. Snowfall accumulations may average near normal for many areas along and north of 40N this month. Again the general circulation is fairly similar to an -ENSO despite the conflicting teleconnections. I will post a new blog as soon as I can towards this coming weekend.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 9.5"
Monthly Total (January)- 5.8"
Monthly Total (February)- 1.8"
Seasonal Total- 18.1"
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 32.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.2F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning event
Enhanced Clipper - December 24 - 2.1" - Christmas Eve Snow!
Miller B - December 26 - 3.3" - 0.15" of freezing rain also
Miller B - December 29 - 4.1" - Moderate all snow event
SWFE - January 15-16 - 1.0" - Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
Arctic Cold Front - January 21 - 0.5" - fluffy snow
Weak southern disturbance - January 25 - 3.3" - snow ratios above 20:1
Great Lakes Cutter - January 28 - 1.0" - snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
Alberta Clipper - February 2 - 1.0" - very light snow

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594. Gaara
Quoting PhillySnow:
Thanks for the responses, everyone! I understand if there is "snow fatigue" for LT, Gaara and others in the last storm; or "model fatigue" for P, trying to keep up with it all.

I'm still waiting here, eagerly watching forecasts, and I have to say Wednesday's storm is not looking great, and the weekend is totally up in the air. *sigh*




Talk to my upper body if you want to discuss snow fatigue. Ugh.

re: nowcasting--I always take kind of a 'probability funnel' approach to winter forecasts.. After about 168hrs, just ignore everything entirely. From the mid-term onward, just recognize the possibility that we may get anything from X (non-event) to Y (old man winter ploppin' all over us). Unfortunately it seems that, this winter, if you read your AFDs religiously, that the outer bounds shift outward at times, which simply shouldn't happen often if at all.. That's the stuff that throws me for a loop. The same thing with the models, at times.. .

For example, right now, I'm mainly concerned with midweek next week, as we are traveling up to VT/NH for a long weekend.. Looks like a warm weathermaker, but anything can happen. As for this storm and this weekend's events, I could care less, because (unlike last weekend and this coming week) they don't really interfere with any of my plans--they're just going to be annoying at this point.

On another note, I am still waiting for ConnecticutWXGuy to claim his prize. I hope he's okay!
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
I know this is quite a few hours outdated, but 8 inches, 20% chance? Seems like this would be quite overarchieving unless there is some serious banding that sets up tonight.
Link
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Yeah, "P", they've covered all their bases! Looking at the radar, I do see an ENE movement to the main area of precipitation, which is in the Ohio Valley. So I feel I might see 1-3" up here in Sw CT. unless it gets surpressed a little bit tonight, to the South.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
I guess the new model runs hit the desks at Mount Holly!


FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.




Rofl.........we have now covered everything from partly cloudy to massive superstorm in our forecasting for this weekend.

Know what this means, folks? No matter the weather all ya gotta do is dig up the discussion/forecast to match that outcome...and someone can claim the mets were right all along! Well done!

:/



See yas...when it's time to start verifying tonight's storm event.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
I find it curious that there is a gap in the WWAs through central NJ... when you have WWAs in the SW of the state and Philly, and WWAs on Long Island.

More so is where the gap is - would be where the greatest chances of a heavier hit of snowfall accumulation would be.

So one wonders, is this an oversight.
Do we mock it and exclaim, what, the storm gunna snow in Philly, jump over central NJ, and snow on Long Island?

Or is there a technical reasoning, pershaps a future WSW instead of a WWA, because of a higher hit potential in that gap...


Whatever it is...it just looks funny to see this.

It's akin to Camp Springs and Upton both having Blizzard Warnings for 24"+ snowfall, and Mt Holly still stuck on an HWO for 1-3" for 8 additional hours - during one of the 2010 blizzards.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
As one wonders about the warm 40s at the surface here in central NJ, all one has to do is look up at the cloud formations, and recognize the signatures of ice aloft...in a low cloud ceiling at that.

Cold air is up there. Wouldn't take much to pull it to the surface. The solid hit of QPF on all model runs ought to do the trick nicely.

Sticking to my guns on this one from the start. I guess now all we do is see where everything goes.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
Okay.

Mount Holly snow map has solid 2-4" strike through central NJ.

Zone forecast product from Mt Holly has 1-3" wording.


Mount Holly has WWA for SW NJ through southern NJ.

Mount Holly does not have WWA for central NJ where it's highest swath of snow is on their maps.



What's funny is yesterday morning when they committed to "moderate accumulation" which is 3-6" - they had the forecast correct.

That's the forecast that has the best chance of verifying.

And now, their forecasts, maps, and wwa's are not in sync whatsoever. It's like 3 different people, liking 3 different models, each got one of the 3 tasks to complete on their own - without office interaction.


.........TRP, I know it. I used to defend the meteorological practices but in light of the last year or so where the mistakes have piled up and the success rate plummeted to what, 10% accuracy for long stretches of time, there's nothing to defend and everything to criticize.

Sad, really.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
Down here in the DC area, it seems like the temps forecast is going to bust low today. There is a definite chill to the air that makes me think maybe more snow, less rain at least here in the near-in western 'burbs.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
Pcroton,
Quoting TheF1Man:
PengSnow are you talking about the weekend storm?


Sorry I should have referenced this weekends storm, i am flying out of PGH in 3 hours and will be back late tonight and share what my friends have to say by tomorrow morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our low here was 28F. A high of 44 is forecast. I'm hoping it is colder and there's a quick changeover to snow.

As part of the choir, I have to say that I enjoy your rants, P! I often don't see the methodology or logic behind the forecasts, and they give me perspective. I like the historical discussions also for this reason.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1478
Pcroton - you are funny with your ranting...You realize you are preaching to the choir.

Looking at my WU forecast they have rain during the day and snow in the evening for the next 4 or 5 days.

A cold and frosty morning here...we got down to 24F also
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
I'm looking at both GFS and NAM and it's funny to me..the GFS snowfall outputs don't even seem to match it's own QPF/2m temp runs at all. You'd expect a similar snowfall map from the GFS that you see with the NAM. And to take it a step further I still see, when I see the runs, some 4-8" potentials in the heaviest snow swath. I guess we will find out won't we....(generally, why I was wrong to guess so high, lol).


Meanwhile, the weekend storm, NAM and GFS fail to phase the northern/southern streams in time for the middle atlantic....and at best show some chance of it for eastern most New England? Eh, gotta be careful here, a slight nudge on those models and you get runs that will show phasing along the middle-atlantic and we go from snow showers to major storm in a blink of an eye.

All about waiting for tonight's storm to move through before trusting model runs on the weekend warrior.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
At this rate, if Peng was talking about this coming (tonights) storm - and the mets not having a good idea on it until it's actually raining/snowing, I'd be inclined to believe him.

For what it's worth I have awoken to 24F...a good ten degrees below forecasting. Speaking of which, at 330AM they updated the local zone product, and went right to today's forecast calling for mid 40s. It's almost as if they rushed to remove "Tonight" from the forecast of which last I saw was calling for lows in the mid 30s.

Can't even get a six hour temperature forecast in tranquil conditions correct....what makes me believe their weakly leaning 1-3" for tonight's weather would pan out?

I don't know what to say about it all beyond it doesn't match the guidance. I have thought all along the warmer, drier, further inland, low snow, further NW snow swath GFS has been out to lunch from the start on tonight's system. I felt the NAM always had the snow swath correct if only just a little high on totals. I still do but now feel the totals are better.

NE Maryland to SE Mass - 2-5" looks good to me with a heavier 3-5" in central NJ to eastern LI.

Still does.

*shrug*



As to the pending storm, once again the mets are refusing to pull any triggers, because they are so tied to computer modeling. So if it's in the models hands, we all know that until tonight's storm heads out to sea and does it's thing (intensifies, tracks, how much, where) that the models cannot properly depict the environment in it's wake.

Since the next storm's intensity and tracking seems sensitive - and it cannot be properly modeled until we have a properly modeled pre-environment?

We're at the mercy of it all...if you're seeking a professional solution to the weekend's weather.


As I ranted a couple of days ago...in instances such as this in the past the NWS would have simply put up "Chance of Snow" for Saturday/Sunday and they would have left it at that, and still would, until we drew near.

This would be acceptable.

The current method of changing the weekend weather every six hours, of which conveniently matches the 6hr model update cycle, serves absolutely no purpose but to give the impression that the professionals have no idea what they are doing.

By the time we reach the event, everywhere from a major storm to flurries and everything inbetween would have been posted in the local zone forecast products over the course of the week leading up to the event.

This isn't forecasting, this is stupidity, and it serves absolutely no functioning purpose - for anyone.


The more I think, the more I rant, the more I cannot believe this is acceptable protocol - and even worse, it's new protocol that they believe was a wonderful upgrade to how they were doing things.

How they were doing things was just fine. How they do things now is an abomination that deserves to be criticized.


/rant off!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
PengSnow are you talking about the weekend storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a quick note the mets I know are hesitant to pull the plug and say a storm is coming, alot different than last weeks storm where they nailed it in advance. From what they were telling me tonight yes there is a chance, however it won't be as potent in what area to what was seen last week in Connecticut and Boston, it would be more widespread. They said by tomorrow night we should have a good idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the responses, everyone! I understand if there is "snow fatigue" for LT, Gaara and others in the last storm; or "model fatigue" for P, trying to keep up with it all.

I'm still waiting here, eagerly watching forecasts, and I have to say Wednesday's storm is not looking great, and the weekend is totally up in the air. *sigh*


Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1478
Amazing with under 24 hours to go...the mets still have no idea what to expect. Flopping the forecasts around.

They had "moderate accumulation" in the forecast for NJ and NYC earlier today. Just got home to see "1-3" in both forecasts.

The odd thing is I don't see anything different in the model runs. To me they all seem to show a quick changeover in the evening and then a good shot of QPF in cold air before heading out to sea.

1-3" in NYC...maybe since it's on the NW fringe of things. But central NJ would seem more like 3-5" to me.

I dunno...guess we just have to wait for it to unfold, again, and then nowcast, and have that go wrong as well. LOL.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
577. bwi
High around 58 in DC today. Feels like spring in the air. Cooling rapidly tonight under calm winds and clear skies. I think it will be way too warm for snow tomorrow -- suspect NAM's prediction of of wet snow on the back side is not very likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PhillySnow:
I can go with that! I'm wondering where everyone is today - could use some of our comrades to weigh in on this.


Philly right here with you and I'm sure P is with you too on getting some white back on the ground since it has all melted. Still have a low confidence in anything of substance due to the temperatures. But my New England raised mom always said the best snow occurred at 35 degrees! Going back to my roots on this one.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
Plenty of room for the snow here! A bunch of it has melted here in Mass with the warm temps and rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Philly, I think that everyone is just worn out after last weeks Blizzard. This next event is "puny"compared to that one (unless we get some sort of surprise, and the storm "over achieves".)
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Quoting Gaara:


I have been chanting a "south and east" mantra for the last few hours. Nowhere to put the snow right now.
I can go with that! I'm wondering where everyone is today - could use some of our comrades to weigh in on this.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1478
572. Gaara
Quoting PhillySnow:
We've apparently got either 2-4 inches or 3-6 inches Wednesday night into Thursday depending on which forecast I go by - in other words: track, speed of storm; temps, etc. I'm back on snow watch, checking every few hours to see how the storm's developing. Anything would be good here, and during daylight hours would be excellent!

Looks like NY & CT are spared from this, which is probably a relief!


I have been chanting a "south and east" mantra for the last few hours. Nowhere to put the snow right now.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
We've apparently got either 2-4 inches or 3-6 inches Wednesday night into Thursday depending on which forecast I go by - in other words: track, speed of storm; temps, etc. I'm back on snow watch, checking every few hours to see how the storm's developing. Anything would be good here, and during daylight hours would be excellent!

Looks like NY & CT are spared from this, which is probably a relief!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1478
Sorry, the ipad thinks it can spell: precipitous --- precipitation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking thru the 06Z model runs, going forward by 48 hours, it sure looks like DC gets precipitous Wednesday night/Thursday morning. But it is hard to see enough cold air to do us any good. I think it's a cold rain event. 8-(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gaara:
Upton AFD is all over the place when it brings up the models and generally supports a 6"ish event for us. Hopefully we don't get another band setting up right on top of us again.

Hard to believe that there is so little confidence in the 48 hour forecast.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
567. Gaara
Upton AFD is all over the place when it brings up the models and generally supports a 6"ish event for us. Hopefully we don't get another band setting up right on top of us again.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
566. bwi
NWS DC has clarified their thinking on the Wednesday storm. Seems reasonable to me. If it intensifies more than expected, we could get some heavy wet snow, which probably wouldn't stick to salted roads, but should look nice on the trees.

I must say, I'm getting really tired of road salt! We've probably spread deeper salt in DC this season than we've had snow. There are salt bergs on the streets.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON SEEING
PRECIP ACROSS THE LWX CWA FROM A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKING JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY. UPR TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 12Z ECMWF IS IN
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH GEFS MEMBERS /WHICH THEMSELVES HAVE MUCH
CLOSER CLUSTERING OF SFC LOW AT 00Z THURSDAY. DYNAMIC COOLING
DEPENDS ON THE RATE OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WHICH LOOKS STEADY BUT
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AS OF THIS TIME /LESS THAN ONE MB PER HOUR/.
SNOW MAY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN STRONGER BANDS.
HOWEVER THESE BANDS MAY PERSIST OVER SIMILAR AREAS...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. WILL UPDATE THE HWOLWX FOR THIS WORDING.
STILL THINK IT WILL BE A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS...WENT MORE LOW TO MID 40S. AREAS EAST
OF I-95 DO NOT LOOK TO DROP BELOW 32F /FOR FREEZEUP CONCERNS/. IN
FACT ONLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOK TO DIP AS LOW AS 30F.
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Quoting Gaara:
One other cool note:
A local resident made a facebook event containing a crowdsourced list of plowed streets. Someone posted to the event page saying that they were just talking to public works, and they wanted to know where she was getting the information.. Then asked her to fill out an online form with the information because they do not have access to facebook at city offices. City DPW claims that "most" roads will be plowed "by the end of the day."

Looking at the list, about 30% of the streets were cleared by residents. That's pretty damn cool.
That is really cool, Gaara - both the crowdsourced list and people just plowing their own streets. Hard to believe the city employees couldn't just get on their cell phones to access facebook!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1478
On the radio driving back from Ohio today from a one day business trip, a local station mentioned a major storm for Columbus, OH---however I do not see it, is this right?
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NWS seems to dislike the Wednesday/Thursday system.

Rejecting the NAM, going with a warmer drier GFS/ECMWF blend.

It will be a rain to snow event. They're saying warmer and faster to move through. This would mean a lot less opportunity for snow.

They leave the door open for the NAM however...which makes it seem like they really aren't confident about their solution yet.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
Good call TRP.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
561. bwi
Quoting vdb0422:


No snow for this weekend for DC?


Last I looked GFS had a storm for DC this weekend, but EC doesn't seem to develop it until it's way up off New England.

Keep in mind, I haven't fully adjusted to the age of model guidance, and often read the model outputs wrong!
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Like I said in a previous post....They were forecasting 55F here today...well it got to 42F. I knew it wouldn't get that high. We have fog here also, without much snow on the ground. The only snow I see is on North facing hills and that is very little.

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
Quoting bwi:
If I'm reading it right, EC looks good for precip Wednesday, but too warm? Looks like zilch for the weekend.


No snow for this weekend for DC?
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558. bwi
If I'm reading it right, EC looks good for precip Wednesday, but too warm? Looks like zilch for the weekend.
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557. Gaara
One other cool note:
A local resident made a facebook event containing a crowdsourced list of plowed streets. Someone posted to the event page saying that they were just talking to public works, and they wanted to know where she was getting the information.. Then asked her to fill out an online form with the information because they do not have access to facebook at city offices. City DPW claims that "most" roads will be plowed "by the end of the day."

Looking at the list, about 30% of the streets were cleared by residents. That's pretty damn cool.

I am going to go lay down with a book.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
556. Gaara
A few brief updates:

- Ray from Mr. Mac's was not shoveling when he suffered his heart attack. He was just going out to the truck to check or retrieve something.

- The rain has helped and harmed. It ate off a couple inches on the top of pile, and we have had further compression due to the warm temperatures. I didn't check the tape measure but it looks like right around two feet in most places. It was very easy to clear the slush out on the top half of the driveway, but I gave up on the bottom half after 90 minutes. Giving it another hour or so to soften and will try again. My arms are pretty exhausted. On the flip-side, it looks like some people are taking the slush as an excuse to begin or to continue to drive like Toonces. See the next bullet. The fog isn't helping matters, either.

- Ugh: "A car struck a family of four walking along the shoulder of Bridgeport Avenue Monday morning, sending two members of the family to the hospital with "severe trauma," emergency officials said."

- School was cancelled today in Milford. School is cancelled tomorrow in Milford. School is cancelled Wednesday in Milford.

- Returned safely from my infusion in New Haven, although I came close to getting in an accident on the way back at the merge of the 34 connector to 95SB. I think it would have been either entirely my fault or a mutual fault accident had it occurred. There are only about 100 feet of merger space and you cannot see anything smaller than an SUV approaching from either side. I should have stopped at the ramp and he probably shouldn't have been doing 60 in the right lane while approaching a high volume ramp. Lesson(s) learned. That could have ended poorly.

- I was on 95 northbound at around 730AM and southbound at 1030AM and they have sporadic crews of payloaders working with cops and a giant snowthrower which was causing significant delays. Most of 95 between New Haven and Milford is 2 or 2.5 lanes as opposed to 3. The crews were specifically working the exit 39A/B on/off stirp in milford because people are trying to merge in between two snow banks with a little under 3 lanes to work with instead of 4. They had already taken care of this at exit 38 on the northbound side, which is a death trap during rush hour.

- My employer was open today (and Friday) and has a VPN that can handle about 10% of the people that were trying to log in on Friday. We are being told that these days must be taken as vacation days. Thankfully I already put in for this as a personal day.

- Heard more stuck plow/payloader stories from friends Stratford and Hamden. Have a friend who is a state worker who has been at work since Friday at 6:30AM. They get 4 hour sleep breaks and he is very much looking forward to his overtime check.

I have no plans to venture out tonight, but I will be back at work tomorrow.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Quoting Pcroton:
We just fogged up pretty good here. 48F, misting drizzle, 4-6" of snow still remain.

I hadn't really thought about Fog but should have given the temperature differentials between the snowpack and warm air. NWS hadn't thought about it either.

I guess we're all sleepy after trying to figure out the last storms' borderlines out.


Dealt with the fog/rain this am when a roof leak in our office building shorted the fire alarm and we all had to stand out in the rain/fog for 1/2 hour around 8:45. Luckily I had an umbrella in the office!
Looking at the PWS in the area there is a huge slug of very warm air riding up the coast. I'm seeing mid 50's in Delaware and south Jersey.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
Quoting bwi:
12z NAM looks good for Wednesday in DC -- maybe a quick shot of heavy wet snow at 34 degrees?
Quoting Pcroton:
Sure looks it, bwi.

NAM goes significant for DC-->SE Mass...and gets into Westchester and central CT as well with decent QPF.

Both colder AND further inland higher QPF totals. It's not a shift you see every day run to run.. colder/drier, warmer/wetter, yep - but colder/wetter/further reaching not really.


All in all I like all the model runs and their consistency. If there's not significant talk about this system come tomorrow morning in the local products and discussions - I'd be very surprised.



Let's do a DC snow this time! Igloo makers are standing by...
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
Sure looks it, bwi.

NAM goes significant for DC-->SE Mass...and gets into Westchester and central CT as well with decent QPF.

Both colder AND further inland higher QPF totals. It's not a shift you see every day run to run.. colder/drier, warmer/wetter, yep - but colder/wetter/further reaching not really.


All in all I like all the model runs and their consistency. If there's not significant talk about this system come tomorrow morning in the local products and discussions - I'd be very surprised.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
We just fogged up pretty good here. 48F, misting drizzle, 4-6" of snow still remain.

I hadn't really thought about Fog but should have given the temperature differentials between the snowpack and warm air. NWS hadn't thought about it either.

I guess we're all sleepy after trying to figure out the last storms' borderlines out.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
551. bwi
12z NAM looks good for Wednesday in DC -- maybe a quick shot of heavy wet snow at 34 degrees?
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Afternoon bwi.

Both the GFS and NAM on both the 0Z and now 12Z runs have quite a nice storm for the upper mid-atlantic into southern coastal New England for late Wednesday into early Thursday.

While two runs aren't enough...it's worth noting this would actually be at least four consecutive runs for both models showing a similar hit.

Incidentally local NJ 12 News doesn't like the storm one bit, this morning saying "weak little disturbance too far south"...but then this afternoon echoed that but said "if we change our thinking we will let you know".

HPC...I think their swath of snow is too far north west away from the coast. While they are likely thinking warmth at the coast - there will be an early enough and definitive enough changeover for the coastlines.

Whether or not any of this translates southwestward through Baltimore into Washington? Honestly I don't know. Admittedly I don't pay enough attention to that region to know all the local nuances when it comes to these systems. Perhaps DC is just fine "ignoring" it.

I really think this looks good for 4"+ from NE MD through central NJ right into SE Mass. Perhaps SE NY, NW NJ, NW/SW CT find themselves on a slightly lower QPF side and struggle to hit 4" while the coasts reach 4-8".

I am surprised at the lack of commitment of NWS offices. Perhaps this evening we see them come forward some more. It would put us in the 48-60 hour timeframe. You'd think they will be comfortable with a more detailed look at this in the local products by then.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 23174
Thanks for the help on the model run sites. I am just waiting for this weekend. Of course it will not rival Nemo, but anything is better than nothing.
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Quoting originalLT:
vdb0422, you can see a GFS model run right here at Weather Underground. At the top of the page, click SEVERE WEATHER, then click Tropical Weather Hurricane, then scroll down to the third grouping of sites (Computer models and Forecasts) and click "GFS Atlantic NCEP" and follow instructions. --Click, NAMER, .Click 10 meter wind and precipitation, then click the latest model run. You'll get the hang of it.


Thanks a lot.
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547. bwi
12z GFS has a nice little storm track for the DC area for Wednesday, but too warm for snow it looks like.

Next weekends storm looks great, however.
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546. bwi
LWX wimps out on the DC forecast. Meanwhile HPC has us in the 50 percent chance of an inch or two of snow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET AND NEAR CLIMO FOR
TEMPERATURES. MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND...WOULD WOULD FAVOR COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AT THE VERY LEAST...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHERN STREAM COULD BE
ACTIVE AS WELL...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY
SOUTHERN STORMS WOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO
AFFECT US.
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
well done MM

cchamp - I guess you can't wait for nice green fairways and greens, huh


thanks
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Quoting Blizzard92:
MariettaMoon- Have you been producing these recent maps using GIS?


Yeah, the program is called ArcGIS. Except for the thousands of data points I typed up, a map like that it really isn't too hard to do. There is a tool that geocodes all the cities & its their data attributes. There is another tool that interpolates the values. Some other manipulation goes into it to get it to look right including making it an attractive and legible design. If you ever wanted to learn the program, I'm confident that you could teach yourself. You'd just buy the textbook & the CD's that are included. In the textbook, step-by-step instructions are given throughout including a short video of each step incase extra guidance is needed. You could probably learn and be efficient at it in just a couple months over the summer or something. The skill could be a nice little addition to a job resume, and it's just fun to be able to do it. GIS analysis gets a lot more introspective than these snow maps. Lots of in-depth environmental & social analysis can be done. There are lots of jobs opening up in the field from city planning, environmental, military, emergency planning, transportation, geological... the list goes on and on. GIS is a popular elective for meteorology students here, but they take an easier GIS course designed specifically for Earth Science students.
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