Significant Nor'easter to impact Northeast...
Zachary Labe
Posted: 6 February 2013
A northern stream influence will phase with another disturbance out of the southern stream and subsequent cyclogenesis along the New England coast is anticipated during the February 8-9 time period. Significant storm impacts will occur from western New York east to Cape Cod. Given the late redevelopment and associated Miller B-type storm formation, many areas south of the 40N will see little impact from this event. Slow movement and impressive mesoscale banding will result in snow accumulations in excess of two feet for some areas just west of Boston. While too early to declare this a KU event, the entire situation is definitely worth monitoring over the next few days with potential NESIS ratings likely on the order of 2-3.
Current Surface Plot...
(Courtesy of HPC)
February 8-9 Nor'easter
A quick hello after a short hiatus from blogging over the past few weeks; I know many of you are still waiting to hear my thoughts on the American Meteorological Society conference. Eventually I will get around to writing up a quick summary for those interested. Nevertheless, it was a necessary to provide an immediate full update on what will be a very significant nor'easter to impact the Northeast. Blizzard conditions will likely occur across much of the densely populated portions of eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metropolitan region.
The complex and impressively large storm system will build itself in a series of critical puzzle pieces that will fit together to east coast cyclogenesis. A northern stream wave, which is already evident on radar across the northern and eastern Midwest will continue tracking south and east. This weak surface low (not even evident on some surface maps) will track across southern Ohio. A weak H85 low will be associated with this wave and will move into Pennsylvania and extreme southern New York. Therefore WAA at the surface will likely occur under southwest winds despite a strong banana high pressure system to the north. As the northern stream begins to interact with the moisture-filled subtropical jet, another low pressure will begin to take shape off the North Carolina coastline. This is a very typical Miller B type storm evolution.
The low pressure will begin to rapidly deepen and expend its precipitation shield inland. Isentropic lift and weak frontogenic forcing ahead of the S/W in Ohio will spread light snows across western and the southern tier counties of New York State by Thursday night. This precipitation will be primarily driven from the northern stream system. Guidance is suggesting a small window of bombogenesis with pressure falls ~3mb/hr as surface pressures drop to 988mb south of Long Island, NY. A track just inside the 40/70 benchmark is then expected.
Precipitation will be falling in two distinctive shields. One across New York State and the other expanding in the Delmarva with the coastal low. Eventually as the phasing occurs (timing remains uncertain), the radar will take on a different graphic with a strong dominant deformation axis from central New York that will slowly move east spreading heavy snow in its path. There will likely be a large dry slot that will form to the south and east of the deformation axis. It is likely this will impact most of the state of Pennsylvania. As will be noted below, there are a few signs on the latest guidance that this dry slot could impact areas as far east and north as New York City and the Connecticut river valley.
The low pressure will continue trekking northeast and develop several impressive mesoscale bands associated with the CCB axis from New York City northeast to Boston. Guidance suggests high Omega values and near-ideal snow growth with a low, moist dendritic layer. H85s will primary focus around -10C providing an additional support for excellent snow rates during the height of this storm especially for areas just inland towards Worcester, Massachusetts. QPF will likely exceed .5" in a small three window for some areas of central and eastern Massachusetts with therefore associated snow rates exceeding 2"/hr. Elevated instability will be possible along the highest frontogensis and PWATs axis again focused in central areas; therefore thunder snows cannot be ruled out. This signal though may grow as we get closer to the event and 4km HIRES models have a better look at the banding impacts of the storm.
A few current models indicate that as the low becomes vertically stacked, that it may stall for a period of time. It is likely this is an over-amplification error. Therefore the QPF amounts >3" are likely irrelevant to this event. In general the jet flow is still relatively progressive and inhibits these classic KU characteristics.
A widespread and uniform moderate snowfall will occur from western New York east and north to the northern Maine with 4-10" of snow. The best forcing will be south and east along with the best snow growth. Closer to the tightly wrapped east coast low will be an axis of very high snow amounts that may approach two feet in some areas. The highest QPF and snow will likely fall near the Worcester region.
A few concerns of mine still exist for this event. Given the progressive flow if the phase capture occurs a bit later, the secondary low will form farther northeast. Therefore the dry slow will approach the tristate region into portions of even eastern Connecticut. This would also limit the higher snowfall amounts across the southern tier of New York allowing for more WAA as 2m temperatures warm into the mid 30s. Also the exact location of the rain/snow primary lines, especially towards New York City, will be highly dependent on the strength of the deformation axis/CCB. Therefore a high bust potential exists in this region. A few days remain before the event, but by Thursday evening WAA snows will already be moving into western New York. Stay tuned!
Regional Radar...
(Courtesy of Intellicast)
Regional Advisories...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
This is my current rain/snow line...
Pittsburgh, PA - State College, PA - Wilkes-Barre, PA - Mt. Pocono, PA - New York City, NY - New London, CT - Hyannis, MA
***For this event there will not be one defined snow line. Also little to no mixed precipitation is expected given the setup therefore limiting precipitation types to either rain or snow. I chose my line based on a 75/25 split with >75% being snow as the majority precipitation for areas along and north of the line. Therefore while areas will mix with rain to the south, some snow accumulation cannot be ruled out especially for areas in the deformation axis as the system begins to pull northeast into the Gulf of Maine.
Storm Reports...
None.
Storm Impacts...
1. Widespread snow accumulations possible in excess of 10" from Buffalo, NY east to Boston, MA.
2. High, damaging winds anticipated along the immediate coast with gale force gusts in excess of 55mph particularly along Cape Cod.
3. Rain/snow mix can be expected in a narrow corridor along the southern periphery of the deformation axis. This may impact the NYC metro area.
4. High snow rates can be expected with model output suggesting up >6"/hr totals for a 3 hour period in New England during the height of the event.
5. Major impacts along I-95 corridor north of 40N where few winter storms have occurred this year to prepare people for winter driving conditions.
Snow Map...
***Snow map posted 3pm 2/6/2013. This snow map is preliminary due to its early posting, but should give a general idea for most locations where the heavier snow will occur. My favored axis for two feet potential is just west of Boston towards the Worcester corridor where high snow rates and excellent snow growth will occur in correspondence to the impressive CCB band. A more difficult forecast for New York City is likely where they will be very close to a dry slot and warmer temperatures. In the end my forecast does abide by a colder approach give the dense air mass over the region and a bit of snow cover. Therefore I am extending some light snow accumulation as far south as Philadelphia where they may see the tail end of the deformation axis. The dry slot will significantly inhibit snowfall over the Middle Atlantic including Maryland, Washington DC, and central Pennsylvania. Warmer temperatures at the surface will also prevail in this region. Nevertheless it is possible for light snow accumulations as far south as the Mason-Dixon line.
Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Light to moderate rain
Baltimore, MD- Scattered rain showers
Salisbury, MD- A few rain showers
Pittsburgh, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations up to 2-3"
State College PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations 1-3"
Williamsport, PA- Periods of snow mixing with a little rain. Snow accumulations 2-4"
Altoona, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations 1-2"
Harrisburg, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations T-2"
Lancaster, PA- Rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations T-2"
Philadelphia, PA- Periods of rain mixed with occasional heavy snow. Snow accumulations 2-4"
Allentown, PA- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulations 3-6"
Scranton, PA- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulation 3-7"
Washington, DC- A few rain showers
Wilmington, DE- Occasional rain/snow showers. Snow accumulations 1-4"
Dover, DE- Occasional rain showers
Trenton, NJ- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulations 2-5"
New York City, NY- Heavy snow occasionally mixed with rain. Snow accumulations 3-7"
Poughkeepsie, NY- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 4-8"
Binghamton, NY- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 5-10"
Ithaca, NY- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 5-10"
Albany, NY- Heavy snow and gusty winds. Snow accumulations 10-14"
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow and strong winds. Snow accumulations 10-15"
Concord, NH- Heavy snow and strong winds. Snow accumulations 14-18"
Providence, RI- Heavy snow occasionally mixed with periods of rain. Snow accumulations 10-14"
Worcester, MA- Blizzard conditions expected. Snow accumulations 15-20" with localized higher amounts
Boston, MA- Blizzard conditions expected. Snow accumulations 12-15" with localized higher amounts
Nantucket, MA- Periods of rain mixed with heavy snow. Snow accumulations 3-7"
Hyannis, MA- Periods of heavy rain/snow. Snow accumulations 4-8"
Burlington, VT- Heavy snow expected. Snow accumulations 8-12"
Portland, ME- Blizzard conditions expected. Snow accumulations 14-18" with localized higher amounts
Bangor, ME- Periods of heavy snow. Snow accumulations 8-12"
"Subject to Change"
Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...
(Courtesy of Wunderground)
Model Analysis
A few computer model differences still exist especially in regards to the evolution of the phasing of the northern and southern streams. The extent and timing of this is critical for forecasts. Currently the NAM is the flattest piece of guidance despite the overly excessive QPF progged once the storm moves east of Cape Cod. 3-4" storm totals will not be occurring anywhere for this event; I do not buy into the storm stalling and being captured theory. I also believe the ECMWF is having a few QPF issues in the extent of the western periphery of the 1" range in New York state. Also it is currently running as the coldest model with 2m temps <0C as far south as the Mason-Dixon line during the start of the event. It is likely there will be enough WAA to allow temperatures to rise into the mid 30s as far north as Williamsport for a short period.
Globals will struggle with the exact positioning and cut-off of the dry slot. I would expect this region to be larger than anticipated on guidance and pose a significantly wrench in forecasting efforts for portions of the Middle Atlantic. In general not many other model contrasts exist at this point as it is a bit too early for HIRES 4km runs.
After the Storm
Quieter weather and little in the way of lake effect snow is likely for the period after this event. We will begin to see the ridge axis slide east across the central United States allowing for milder air to slide in across the east coast. Nevertheless, the air mass only remains marginally above normal so a torch period is not expected. A low pressure will track up through the Great Lakes for the beginning of next week. Some cold air immediately at the surface will allow any rain to fall as freezing rain especially for areas along and north of I-80. Eventually the precipitation will change to all rain north to the Canadian border. QPF amounts will generally be light and less than 0.5" for all areas. The next storm system of interest impacts the region on Valentine's Day. This event poses a bit more of a threat for wintry precipitation. Current wavelengths suggest though that precipitation type will be a problem for some areas at the minimum. At this point a significant east coast snow storm is not likely, but some areas of moderate to heavy snow accumulations are possible. February continues to look farely active with a top heavy northern stream. In response periods of dry, cold air such as that which occurred in January will not affect the Northeast this month. Snowfall accumulations may average near normal for many areas along and north of 40N this month. Again the general circulation is fairly similar to an -ENSO despite the conflicting teleconnections. I will post a new blog as soon as I can towards this coming weekend.
Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...
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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 9.5"
Monthly Total (January)- 5.8"
Monthly Total (February)- 1.8"
Seasonal Total- 18.1"
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 32.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.2F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning event
Enhanced Clipper - December 24 - 2.1" - Christmas Eve Snow!
Miller B - December 26 - 3.3" - 0.15" of freezing rain also
Miller B - December 29 - 4.1" - Moderate all snow event
SWFE - January 15-16 - 1.0" - Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
Arctic Cold Front - January 21 - 0.5" - fluffy snow
Weak southern disturbance - January 25 - 3.3" - snow ratios above 20:1
Great Lakes Cutter - January 28 - 1.0" - snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
Alberta Clipper - February 2 - 1.0" - very light snow
Reader Comments
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Upton has widespread <1" totals on it's snowfall map until eastern LI/CT where a sharp rise to 4" occurs.
Widespread 4-6" from Taunton, MA.
Mt Holly, as ALWAYS, has't yet released a map. They have 2-4" in local forecast product wording for Saturday afternoon, and then they have "Snow 50%" for Saturday night, but no wording for additional accumulations.
Camp Springs/Sterling has 1-2 inches in it's northern counties and south eastern corner...and <1" elsewhere in the interior.
Last night the GFS wanted a large 6-10" swath through NJ. HPC large 4"+ NJ wide. NAM 3-6".
This morning... the HPC dropped everyone out of the 4"+ probabilities except coastal NJ makes the 10% clip as does eastern New England - but 10% contour means 1-2" usually verifies.
This morning... The NAM dropped the system entirely to pockets of trace snowfall amounts.
The GFS 1-2" northern NJ, 2-4" southern NJ, and 6-12" Eastern New England.
---
So all this said, can someone with a straight face actually pick one piece of guidance or opinion out of this mess, suggest THAT piece will verify, and then say "They did a great job with this storm."
???????????????????
Are my rants starting to ring true with those who may feel they are misguided and that the NWS/NOAA "Do a great job / Best they can do" and the models "Are performing wonderfully"
?
hehe.
It didn't crystalize on the trees though...and that's a shame because that apparently is a once in a lifetime treat. Saw it once in northern Vermont early one morning. Everything was frosted up to 1/2" deep. Amazing..it's nothing like when snow accumulates or ice.. that is just something surreal.
Morning, LT. Yes they were the 12Z runs...and they have proven entirely erroneous.
I like the 0Z/12Z suites because they incorporate atmospheric soundings...whereas the 6Z and 18Z do not. So you get different results between the suites. Oddly, you would think more data would be better, but recently it seems as if it has proven worse. That is either an indictment of the data entry or the software coding. Take your pick. Who knows anymore.
Seems like the more I complain, the worse the modeling and thus forecasting gets.
I guess it'd be funny if it were someone elses' hobby.
This is downright sad, pathetic, and inexcusable.
Please for the love of God they need to revert out the packaged upgrades to these models that were made about a year ago....and revert forecasting protocol.
The way they are proceeding is sheer lunacy and quackery at it's finest. Re-forecasting off of every brand new model run... runs that whip around from blizzard to 75 and sunny every six hours now. Give me a break.
Someone needs to take their toys away and force them to go back to school and learn how to read satellite imagery and forecast off of that. Do these guys even know what that is? Satellite imagery? You know, the clouds that actually exist? Not some pretty colored maps spit out by a crackbrain computer?
....back away from the rant, P, back away from the rant....
I'm glad I'm working out of the house today. I can't go through all that wishing and hoping again. Better to just let it go. Plus it looks like anything happening will be east and north of here, if there even is anything happening. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised, and I'm not expecting that.
Took awhile to get the truck defrosted when I took the boy to school. Looks like we received a dusting as the flat surfaces were covered, still are. I understand the latest models show a 25% chance of a meteorite hitting in the next 72 hours.
I actually remember a day in college where I was working a Chuck Mangione concert and during that afternoon the high was 65+ and when I got out of the venue that night there was already 4" of snow on the ground.
P- watching a piece on TWC on why the forecasts suck. Blaming the fact that the NWS doesn't have the computing power that other countries have such as S Korea, Germany and England as such the forecasts are less than accurate. The NWS actually issued a statement on the piece saying they are upgrading their computers to fill in this void. This begs the question as to why the TWC can't forecast any better as they must have the funds to have the computing power to assess all the models. Ok now you have ranting!
I ignore the TWC, WU, ACCU, and other sites for local forecast products. I don't know and don't trust their formula. Worse off is these sites all have their base agendas that drive their products and you can't help but be suspicious if their larger motives are somehow incorporated into their forecasting, and their own private data collection databases.
So I go away from it.
As much as I lament the NWS/NOAA shift the past year to introduce more shock forecasting (to raise public awareness!) and the obvious protocols of forecasting immediately off of the latest model runs throwing out the previous forecast entirely (can we just code bots to translate model runs into text then??), I still consider them the cheif forecasting authority.
That said, my trust in them has waned, and even though I still seek their products as a starting point in analysis, I prefer to see what the private forecasters opinions are such as Steve DiMartino, Matt Noyes, and our blogger friends such as Sully and Zach, and even read all your guys comments to see if any opinions laid here trigger any "ya know what, that makes sense, I think (he/she) is on to something there let me check that out" type moments.
I like to account for all of that and then put my own personal spin on things. Sometimes that spin is indeed just an honest hunch and nothing more.
.....
I would say at this point any energy combination of the northern and southern disturbances, as has been the case all of 2013 thus far, is so fragile and more unlikely than not to occur in time, that western zones are out of luck. Philly, NW NJ, even NYC - it just looks unlikely to get any early energy merger to throw appreciable QPF and/or wrap or draw down enough cold in time to make it happen.
Delmarva....could be interesting? Coastal NJ is so close to being either calf deep in it or out of it entirely...and the eastern third of Long Island.
Yet again though, and we can go back to Zach's pre-winter thoughts, it appears genesis will occur in time for New England, not the upper Middle-Atlantic.
I gotta stress, it's very fragile, and the fact that models flip back and forth between nothing and everything is a high indicator of the delicate nature of these atmospheric handshakes as I like to call them. The windows on them recently, due to the accelerated speed of the southern stream, is very narrow, such as 1 to 2 and at most 3 hour windows for them to be in the perfect spot to feel each other and link up. Off by a hair and out to sea.
We saw the last disturbance ALMOST pull it off and then the southern stream pulled away an inch more and we watched the nicely evolving inland precip sheild collapse in response. The inland disturbance was so close to capturing the surface low..if it had you get that widespread 4" . It didn't, and you get the bust as a result.
When we have faster speeds...this is the result. When you have the slower storms their window of opportunity for phasing is huge. 6, 12, even 18 hours for it to occur.
These systems..it's not, and that I think you can use to account for the wild model swings.
The forecasting messes...that's all about protocol in my opinion. The old timers (1980s/90s) would leave things at "Chance of snow" and not flip out every time a model was on again or off again. They'd make a call at a chance of it happening, use the vague blanket wording, and keep it there until they were certain. Then and only then would they make a call one way or the other.
My sister-in-law just went into labor, they live in New Providence, NJ so we'll be headed down tonight after work for the weekend. With my luck, this storm is going to phase, get blocked, and dump two feet on you guys.
Now if the incomming child is the energetic type perhaps other forces would come into play (my neighbor gave birth the night before Sandy, pondered if it's the child coming in to life that brought all the energy of that and the following tree destroying snow).
The energy is all there, but the southern stream is too fast. Otherwise, you get a major coastal low if these players were synced up. They're not. Maybe for eastern New England.
I hear you about the forecasts on WU. It's usually the only website I use since I send my data. Maybe I should go to NWS for forecasts. Matt Noyes doesn't always talk about South Central PA.
As for your rants about the NWS. You think it is bad now, wait until they decide to use some super power computer to send out forecasts and get rid of their meteorological team...I'll bet that is down the road. For awhile when Accuweather was big, way back when, I thought private entities would become big in weather forecasting. I guess not. Like I have said before, when their were meteorologists at big city airports the NWS had a decent handle on the weather. I used to listen to the weather radio a lot, before personal computers. They got it right most of the time. I don't see it now, especially with most a lot of those mets being replaced. That was such a disappointment. I lived north of Baltimore and their was a NWS office out of BWI. Maybe with the advancement of computers and data being released so fast it's not needed.
1-2" overnight tonight...but with all that warmth does it even stick?
Another 1-2" with tomorrow's late system...and that's if it even grazes us.
Wouldn't put much stock in any model runs. Due to the difficult nature of any phasing - the models are all over the place. Don't let any one run lead you to think a solution has been found.
Seems like a good lull between the two disturbances on Saturday.
What that means for the second system in terms of phasing soon enough to give the DelMarVa and coastal NJ a surprise 4" - or too late and no one even gets grazed - who can say - other than I think it's entirely up in the air at this point.
I still want to say it's going to outrun the arctic impulse until it is in New England's hands. But the kid in me wants to say surprise for the last 15-20 miles of NJ/DE/MD/VA coasts.
No matter the lull inbetween two systems - it's always very difficult to forecast/model the second one until the first is at least well underway if not gone entirely.
Doesn't leave much time. FWIW local News 12 guy, who is always a conservative/downcaster type, seems to suggest the second low could bend a bit closer to the coast. If it did then coastal NJ can get 2-4 from it. If it doesn't, I mean, could be flurries and out of here.
Impossible......
From the looks of the radar the precipitation is filling in nicely.
After a high of 50F - now at 48F
I havent even thought about spring at this point,our 2 feet have settled to about a little more than 13 or 14,but every weekend is a new storm and the long range basically said wintery the rest of the month.So golf clubs stay in the closet for the foreseeable future
OT: The thrust of the 800 lb gorilla is to attract funds, talent resources away from core forecasting and centralize the brain. UK MET is an example of this philosophy. Will limit independent thought and creativity. It may take a while. Look at how NOAA has systematically reinvented its various sites that worked well but which now require three or four attempts to access data under guise of making it easier for the average folk to see info. Bah Humbug.
Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey
Peaked at 57F, got some great yardwork in for a few hours this afternoon, and we have since begun to fall sharply to 46F
At this point it seems the whole event encompassing two disturbances is much ado about nothing. It's really a waiting to see if there's any outside chance at a late Saturday surprise with the second one.
Meanwhile, the forecasting is vague (and has been ALL over the place the past two days)...other than the obvious change that 2-4 no longer exists and has been replaced not much to gather from it. With all the warmth today it makes sense to have nothing accumulate.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...
BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COLDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BRISK
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
---
That's an awful lot of "SNOW" with no mention of accumulations in any way. No snow map released. Upton NY wiped theirs out to tenths of an inch of snow covering very little of their forecast region.
Taunton pulled their 4-6" much further east replacing them with 2-4" and upped the Cape to 6-8" even.
Meanwhile, further south in VA/MD, that snow map has actually grown in scope... A stripe of <1" through central VA, DC, Baltimore..oriented SSW to NNE... flanked by large regions of 1-2", with 2-4" on the DelMarVa, and of course higher totals in the western mountains.
I don't know. Seems each office has it's own thoughts that don't mesh with the other on the borders.
All these problems continue over rather meager disturbances. While none of the storms ever really posed large threats - forecasting anywhere from nothing to 4" and back again is pretty shoddy work if you ask me.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013
A NOR`EASTER WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE TRACK WERE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THIS STORM COULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION.
PRESENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LOW...BUT
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON SATURDAY.
Better than last winter but still below average. A few inches of snow and a few sleet events. Could be worse.
Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey
On to the next...Rain Tuesday, Rain Friday. Maybe some mixing in there somewhere with either.
I'm sure models will flip flop around and the forecasts will follow.
It does not appear the Middle Atlantic is in any position for a large storm anytime soon.
A quick glance at the GFS shows the disturbance as a zonal track coming in from the central plains? Yet shows the 5400 in northern NJ. I guess there's your present translation to a local zone product of rain.
Plenty of time for changes on that one. Looks like the primary low sneaks into the northern OH Valley..and then a surface feature tries to develop near the southern mid-atlantic.
Wanna wish cast we want that new surface feature to quickly become dominant. Then we get the cold and then the "surprise" snow through to central mid-atlantic. As always if the initial surface reflection stays too strong it's a conduit for the warm air to inject northward and inland - it just isolates the surface low to the south from the cold air. When the surface dominates and the inland low gives in then the cold rushes down into the new surface low.
We've been down this path before, all of us...damn inland low clinging to life and the rain/snow line staying to our north and/or west....infuriating us by the growing hour.
But I digress, this is 168 hours... yet today's storm has really ticked me off as has the past week honestly so let's do a new trick and focus on next Friday.
Doom it is considered to be the 32 degree line or the rain snow line.
Well expected to see something this morning but alas another bust. Being this close to the coast and I wake up to dark clouds and a sprinkle of drops visible on the deck.
The grass was very slippery this morning...like freezing rain on the surface.
From the radar it appears that NJ is getting some snow
Questions are how soon and how strong is the secondary surface low. Does the inland low keep enough of an identity to keep things warm until the secondary surface low is too far NE up the coast for the Middle Atlantic to change over and get hit?
And, of course, whatever weight you want to put in any 168hr model run.
But the presentation is otherwise possible and is correct.
For the record the ECMWF rockets the primary surface feature into the great lakes and canada on the same runs... so it doesn't know what to make of it either.
The models suck. I wouldn't trust them at all outside of the chance that a disturbance will be entering the region on Friday. What it does, where it is and how it develops is all up in the air.
We can only hope that a good old fashioned coastal surface low develops and dominates quickly and early in the process.
Yeah I gathered from the way he spoke that he was talking about a de facto rain-snow line. But inquiring minds want to know...
5400 what? Doesn't sound like a temperature measurement, or a pressure, or a wind speed, or a humidity measurement. Is it an altitude?
it is a fairly good indicator for surface rn/sn lines
esp. in intense lows
Thx!
TRP- mostly showers as it is too warm here. A flake or two mixed in at times. Started as snow though. Had hope for awhile.
P- I agree that the models will wax and wane over the coming week's potential storm. Time to sit back and watch the talking heads waffle with each run.
It could be the dying low scenario transferring the coast as you said.
Or nothing at all.
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