Widespread Lake Effect/Upslope Snows Expected Later this Week...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:05 PM GMT on December 18, 2012

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Posted Tuesday, 18 December 2012

A closed upper level low will continue to slowly move through southern Canada and upstate New York during the later half of the upcoming week. A deep trough and subsequent northwest flow will allow for the first prolonged lake effect snow event of the year. Widespread upslope snows are also expected across the Appalachians up through the White/Green Mountains. Accumulations will be widespread in the snow belt regions, but generally light to moderate amounts.

Lake Effect Snow Outbreak December 21-23, 2012
A significant winter storm will be tracking through the Midwest and Great Lakes by the middle of this week. This 992mb surface low will track across the Great Lakes and begin to weaken across western New York. A closed upper level low will begin to slowly meander across southern Canada increasing moisture under a northwest flow behind the steep cold front. H85 thermals will fall to a meager -6C, but given that lake temperatures are near 10F above normal, there will be enough of a gradient to spark a widespread lake effect event. The flow for the duration of the event will be around 300-315 degrees with possibly an even more northerly component depending on the track of the ULL. Limited instability will prevent significant banding, but nevertheless with PWATs +0.5SD there will be widespread snow shower activity for several days across the region.

This flow will increase snows across favored upslope and orographic locations from northern West Virginia up through the Laurel Highlands. Favored peaks in Garret County, MD up through Mt. Davis, PA and Laurel Summit, PA may see upwards of 10" of snow during this period. Current model QPF is already at an impressive ~0.5 inches. Across the Chautauqua Ridge in southwestern New York, upslope totals may also approach 10" of snow. This will help lay a fresh snow pack to several ski resorts in the region that are featuring a seasonal snow deficit of nearly two feet to date. As drier air begins to rotate into the region on Saturday, widespread light snow shower activity (with a few enhanced SN bands) will begin to focus into a more cellular nature under diurnal forcing. Mesoscale guidance indicates the development of several stronger bands off of Ontario down through possibly Rochester and Syracuse. UUV and omega growth peak during this period allowing for excellent dendritic growth. Snow ratios during this period may approach 17:1 with snow rates at 1in/hr in some locations. Northern Cayuga County through Onondaga and Madison Counties in New York will see the highest accumulations. During this period upslope snows will increase across northern Vermont in the higher elevations. This will be a multi-day event for this area with amounts approaching two feet above 3000ft by Monday.

Given the length of the fetch and typical northwest flow, a few snow bands may stretch east of the mountains into the central ridge and valley region of Pennsylvania and Poconos. Any accumulations in this area will be isolated and generally around 1-3 inches. A bit of Huron connection may be possible Saturday night during the peak of the lake effect snow event. At this point in the medium range, it is too early to highlight typical bands such as the 322 streamer.

Drier and more stable air will cutoff the cyclonic circulation by early next week with more seasonable temperatures. Winds will also begin to relax.

Regional Radar...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Sustained winds of 20-30mph with gusts approaching 40mph are expected over the region with whiteout conditions possible in snow squalls.
2. Deep moisture field and long fetch will allow snow showers to stretch east of the mountains.
3. Heavy snow accumulations in favored 300 degree snow belts are expected with totals approaching up to 10"
4. First widespread lake effect event of the winter will have greater impacts than normal due to the the infrequency this December.
5. Temperatures and air mass will be marginally cold and generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most areas.

Snow Map...

*The heaviest snow accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations and favored northwest flow snow belt regions. The highest accumulations are expected near the Syracuse metro region and across the upslope effect region of the Green Mountains near Stowe in northern Vermont. Heavy accumulations are also likely up through West Virginia and into the Laurel Highlands. Outside the snow belts snow amounts will be more isolated and dependent on the exact location of the bands and showers which are impossible to forecast exactly at this point in time.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Water Temperature...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Selected City Accumulations"
Erie- 4-6" of snow with higher amounts to the south and east of the city
Meadville, PA- 4-8" of snow
Bradford, PA- 3-6" of snow with higher amounts near Warren County
Butler, PA- 2-4" of snow
Pittsburgh, PA- 1-4" of snow with isolated higher amounts
Latrobe, PA- 1-4" of snow
Indiana, PA- 2-4" of snow
Johnstown, PA- 5-10" of snow with higher amounts possible
Somerset, PA- 4-8" of snow with higher amounts possible
Altoona, PA- 1-4" of snow
Du Bois/Clearfield, PA- 3-6" of snow with locally higher amounts
Philipsburg, PA- 3-5" of snow
State College, PA- 1-3" of snow
Lock Haven, PA- 1-3" of snow
Williamsport, PA- Locally 1-2" of snow
Mt. Pocono, PA- 1-2" of snow
Selinsgrove, PA- Locally 1-2" of snow
Harrisburg, PA- Isolated C-1" of snow
Hagerstown, MD- Isolated C-1" of snow
Cumberland, MD- 1-3" of snow
Frostburg, MD- 2-4" of snow
McHenry, MD- 4-8" of snow
Oakland, MD- 4-9" of snow
Snowshoe, WV- 4-9" of snow
Buffalo, NY- 2-5" of snow with higher amounts to the south and west
Watertown, NY- 3-5" of snow
Syracuse, NY- 6-12" of snow with locally higher amounts
Albany, NY- Locally 1-2" of snow
Ithaca, NY- 1-4" of snow
Binghamton, NY- 1-2" of snow
Saranac Lake, NY- 3-5" of snow
Utica, NY- 5-10" of snow
Burlington, VT- 1-2" of snow. Higher amounts to east approaching 12"
North Conway, NH- 1-4" of snow
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
The GFS is a low resolution global model that typically does not do well in mesoscale events such as lake effect snow. But forecast QPF maps already suggest widespread high amounts over the Northeast snow belts, which is very impressive at this forecast range. A deep moisture field and long northwest fetch is suggested. The ECMWF is also in full support of this event especially across the upslope regions of northern Vermont where an extended multi-day period of heavy snow is possible. Isolated amounts in this region could reach 24" in some areas above 3000ft. All guidance supports a closed low that will allow for a bit of synoptic influence favoring some lighter snows outside the typical snow belts especially for western Pennsylvania and upstate western New York. These amounts will remain light though with QPF less than .15" for most areas. At this range, the NAM and other high resolution guidance is a bit too far out for their time frame. Latest trends in the GFS/ECMWF are showing a possible increase northerly component which would decrease the widespread activity of the snow showers. At this time it looks like the Buffalo metro area will be spared the worst of the event, while areas towards Rochester and Syracuse will be more favored.

After the Storm
As temperature anomalies approach +6F for the month of December for many climatological reporting stations across the Northeast, many are left asking where is winter. A majority of the cold air is locked well to the northwest of the contiguous United States in northern Canada. Even across areas seeing the next bout of winter weather in the Midwest, H85 thermals never even fall below -10C south of the Canadian border. This is a clear indication that much of the nation is well above normal in the temperature department. A +EPO in correspondance with a -PNA will continue to keep the cold air locked up to the north through the end of the month. A few energy meteorologists have been hinting at winter storm chances post Christmas in the Northeast, but given the latest tropical monsoon forcing indices out of the Indian Ocean and the status quo of the current NAO, it is likely these middle latitude cyclones will continue tracking through the Great Lakes. If any secondary cyclogenesis occurs on the east coast, it will only favor far northern New England with wintry precipitation. Unless we see a dramatic change in ensemble guidance and teleconnections, period through the end of December will be snowless across much of the east. While temperatures will likely average near normal, they will feature an oscillating pattern of unseasonable warmth as lows track to the northwest, and then brief arctic air behind the cold fronts.

After a near record dry November, the polar jet has begun to increase in activity as we continue a stormy pattern with several shortwaves per week. This pattern will continue through early January with precipitation totals averaging above normal for all climatological stations. While the MJO forcing remains meager and few changes in the NAO are expected, there are a few signs that the EPO will shift negative and begin to dump some arctic air farther south. As we also enter the coldest portion of the year, it is likely snow chances will begin to increase by early January. That being said, there are no signs of any abnormally snow periods.

Despite another snowless and record warm start to the meteorological winter, the synoptic pattern is very different than last winter. Whether that is encouraging or not, it is critical for snowlovers that we do not see any development of a PV in Alaska. This would disrupt the potentially favorable Pacific by January and allow increasing upper level heights over the eastern United States. The main idea to take from the long term will be a continued stormy pattern of Great Lakes cutters, while the east coast sees mostly rain in association with frontal passages. Any front end warm air advection winter precipitation will likely be confined to northern New England. If any pattern change does occur, it will likely be post New Years.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2012-2013... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 9.5"
Seasonal Total- 10.3"
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 36.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.5F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning event
Enhanced Clipper - December 24 - 2.1" - Christmas Eve Snow!
Miller B - December 26 - 3.3" - 0.15" of freezing rain also
Miller B - December 29 - 4.1" - Moderate all snow event

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Ended up with 1.50" of rain for the storm.

The WU forecast for next week looks snowy. Has anyone seen any model runs about Monday evening and Wednesday evening? They are mentioning accumulating snow for both evenings
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Interesting storm last night. Wind gusts were reported as up to 43mph, but it seemed like more. Would have made a great blizzard.

Congratulations on your snow, Listener! We'll be up at Lake George at the end of January. Do you think they'll have snow by then? (I see mixes in their forecasts.)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1271
SL bP @ 29.10 in and dropping. Winds G to 49 mph. Rain tapering off.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2938
Power's out. We're among the 1500 without power in Vermont just now.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
SL Winds 25-28 kts SE, G- 33. Transformer fire and fire in trees from sway of circuits. Rain since 0100. Maybe a few more hours to clear but ice on the back side as it heads offshore. Tides about 2-3 ft over norm at 1500 yesterday and this am.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2938
Hi Blizz.
Can you make the Regional Advisories map clickable to this address:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/


Thanks!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
Hi Blizz,
Checking in from Bucks County, it's been raining heavily tonight, but no sleet or snow. I thought you'd be back home by now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Secondary surface low over MD ? Looks to be too warm aloft but will play a part if it hits warm ocean water off NJ /LI.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2938
Hey all ~

Just back tonight from the memorial service for my brother-in-law. It was snowing here yesterday all day long and we wondered how far we could drive in it last evening. Turned out to be just a local snow event (I live on the western slope of Mount Mansfield), so we quickly drove out of it. Pretty soon the roads were clear, then the grass was visible again, then all snow gone along the route.

Coming back today we began to see dustings of snow from about Randolph, Vermont northward along I-89. We came home to two inches of actual snow on the ground, and a high wind warning for Friday (gusts to 65+). Our pet-sitter told us, also, that our plow guy came by and pounded the reflector stakes into the ground while we were away. I guess that lends credence to your snow map, Blizz, because it looks like I'm in the 10-14" or 14" area!

We'll get snow overnight, rain tomorrow afternoon, then lots more snow (she said hopefully) on Saturday.

Should we begin planning a snow sculpture blog-fest up here? Truth be told, both Burlington and Stowe have them each winter! Y'all come!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
Pouring liquid snow in Annandale, VA right now. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't wanna jump the gun, especially seeing we're in the middle of an event right now...Blizz, any thoughts on Wednesday-Thursday?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Updating webcam from University Park/State College (the time stamp is wrong but I promise you it's current):
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Lots of reports in central Pennsylvania of wintry precipitation... it won't last too long and will change to rain before it changes back to snow tomorrow morning for some areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Nice amount of sleet mixed in with rain in Carlisle when I left around 5:15 tonight and it mixed in a few times as well on the way home up to Camp Hill. Last twenty minutes or so seemed all rain really
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm seeing a rain/sleet/snow mix north of Harrisburg. People back in State College are saying there's up to 1" of snow & sleet on the ground.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
GFS just came in with a whopper of a snow storm for NC next week, lol.

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Quoting Blizzard92:
A little bit of sleet mixed with the rain here currently, lol how pathetic.


Same here...after a cold and cloudy and breezy day. Temperatures are in the upper 30's though
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Quoting WillHershey:
It's all sleet here in Hershey Blizzard, temps are dropping here too. Is there a change in the forecast?

Just some dry air in the column allowing for a bit of sleet. It will soon turn to rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
It's all sleet here in Hershey Blizzard, temps are dropping here too. Is there a change in the forecast?
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A little bit of sleet mixed with the rain here currently, lol how pathetic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
45. bwi
DC Area

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

* WINDS...WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our meteorology department introduced a couple new products for the public this week:

1. A new precip-type radar mosaic, which is available under the satellite selection on the left column of the ewall: Link

2. New HiRes/4km NAM bufkit data, available on the bufkit data distribution page: Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Gotcha. Just thought with NYC Metro forecasting a high of 36-38 on Monday and overnight lows in the 20's everywhere that it would be a lack of moisture rather than a temperature issue.

Those snowlovers in the upslope and lake effect favored areas.. best of luck over the next few days. Sure someone will pick up 18 inches+!





Quoting Blizzard92:
Again if any threat occurs, boundary layer temperatures will be a major concern. The air mass around Christmas is not cold at all.
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
42. bwi
12z GFS looks sorta interesting -- maybe not frozen, but at least it's the first interesting thing of the season? Maybe with all the flow across that snow cover in the midwest, it'll be a little colder than expected? Cold enough for something? Anything? (Just not ice... don't want any cold air damming stuff...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't be a "Party-Pooper" Blizz! Let us hope!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
40. bwi
HPC experimental 7-day precip maps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Again if any threat occurs, boundary layer temperatures will be a major concern. The air mass around Christmas is not cold at all.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
38. bwi
The 0zEC seems to have shifted quite a bit east with the 2nd storm. Still inland, but pretty powerful? And with the GFS developing the 2nd storm offshore, I'm thinking maybe if you split the difference on timing and location it could be interesting? I know, I'm grasping at straws here...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, the GFS giveth and the GFS taketh. The 06 run now shows the low, which bottoms out to a 976MB storm, way off shore. It's just too early to give it any validity. I know Pcroton always says this, and he's right.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
The 00Z GFS shows a storm off the coast by next Thursday and temps. cold enough for snow! I know, I know, it's a LONG way off. But maybe there is hope!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting wxgeek723:
What I wouldn't give to be in Madison, Wisconsin right about now...


Maybe this thing will get the storm train rolling.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
whats this introduction of snow for christmas eve?Appears its a minor coastal low tracking up the coast.... White/gray christmas possibility?
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
What I wouldn't give to be in Madison, Wisconsin right about now...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
Imagine my excitement... I may may MAY see an inch of snow tomorrow.

Huntingdon, PA - too low and east for lake and upslope, sometimes too far west for coastals.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting originalLT:
Dabbio, in your comment #13, you mention PV. What Blizz means there is, I believe, "Polar Vortex", not potential vorticity.


Thank you originalLT. A bit less mysterious to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, it certainly looks like we will be seeing some snow:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

NYZ012-019>021-085-200445-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.121221T1400Z-121222T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
333 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO
13 INCHES. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RP,I have just the answer,I'll put away my snowblower,that should bring in the winter weather.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
Thanks for answering Blizz.

Where is the cold air? Locked in Canada? Or is it up around Santa's workshop at the North Pole? Do you see any mechanism to bring the cold air into CONUS?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
I find myself hoping for flurry action as the low slowly moves ne of us.Im almost forgetting what snowflakes look like.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
On the Chautauqua ridge we got another dusting during the night, so far we have had about 3 inches total this year, but West Seneca up near Buffalo and Allegany over towards Olean both had about six inches during the November 25 - 26 lake effect event. Everything so far has been lake effect so very varied, if you will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Thanks for the new blog, Blizz.

Let's hope we get a 322 streamer, huh.

Where is the cold air? I was talking to my father in law out in SW Michigan and they haven't seen hardly any snow. They had one day of lake effect that didn't amount to much. That is somewhat unusual. They haven't been getting much lake effect the past few years.

Do you expect SW Michigan to get much snow from the storm and lake effect afterwards?

They should be getting some lake effect snow over the next few days as that blizzard in the Midwest passes by. There has been no cold air at all over the entire lower 48. The temperature anomalies map is incredible.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Thanks for the analysis, Blizz! It's very helpful that you include factors and possibilities from the snowloving point of view.

NWS has "snow showers" and possible snow for us a couple of times this next week. It's a long shot, and maybe we'll have a little Christmas miracle!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1271
Not much winter here in southern Delaware either...
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I live in SWPA smack in the middle of the heaviest snow. I'll be reporting as I have time.
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WU has me getting up to 2 inches of snow on Christmas eve into Christmas day now. Sure WU.
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This is what we get for 2 major snowstorms in 5 days time a couple of years ago. No snow for an additional twenty.
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Hoping the new year will bring better snow chances, sound like nothing else for 2012.

Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
Dabbio, in your comment #13, you mention PV. What Blizz means there is, I believe, "Polar Vortex", not potential vorticity.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
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12 z 48 hrs out 00 soon
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Thanks for the new blog, Blizz.

Let's hope we get a 322 streamer, huh.

Where is the cold air? I was talking to my father in law out in SW Michigan and they haven't seen hardly any snow. They had one day of lake effect that didn't amount to much. That is somewhat unusual. They haven't been getting much lake effect the past few years.

Do you expect SW Michigan to get much snow from the storm and lake effect afterwards?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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