Widespread Lake Effect/Upslope Snows Expected Later this Week...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:05 PM GMT on December 18, 2012

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Posted Tuesday, 18 December 2012

A closed upper level low will continue to slowly move through southern Canada and upstate New York during the later half of the upcoming week. A deep trough and subsequent northwest flow will allow for the first prolonged lake effect snow event of the year. Widespread upslope snows are also expected across the Appalachians up through the White/Green Mountains. Accumulations will be widespread in the snow belt regions, but generally light to moderate amounts.

Lake Effect Snow Outbreak December 21-23, 2012
A significant winter storm will be tracking through the Midwest and Great Lakes by the middle of this week. This 992mb surface low will track across the Great Lakes and begin to weaken across western New York. A closed upper level low will begin to slowly meander across southern Canada increasing moisture under a northwest flow behind the steep cold front. H85 thermals will fall to a meager -6C, but given that lake temperatures are near 10F above normal, there will be enough of a gradient to spark a widespread lake effect event. The flow for the duration of the event will be around 300-315 degrees with possibly an even more northerly component depending on the track of the ULL. Limited instability will prevent significant banding, but nevertheless with PWATs +0.5SD there will be widespread snow shower activity for several days across the region.

This flow will increase snows across favored upslope and orographic locations from northern West Virginia up through the Laurel Highlands. Favored peaks in Garret County, MD up through Mt. Davis, PA and Laurel Summit, PA may see upwards of 10" of snow during this period. Current model QPF is already at an impressive ~0.5 inches. Across the Chautauqua Ridge in southwestern New York, upslope totals may also approach 10" of snow. This will help lay a fresh snow pack to several ski resorts in the region that are featuring a seasonal snow deficit of nearly two feet to date. As drier air begins to rotate into the region on Saturday, widespread light snow shower activity (with a few enhanced SN bands) will begin to focus into a more cellular nature under diurnal forcing. Mesoscale guidance indicates the development of several stronger bands off of Ontario down through possibly Rochester and Syracuse. UUV and omega growth peak during this period allowing for excellent dendritic growth. Snow ratios during this period may approach 17:1 with snow rates at 1in/hr in some locations. Northern Cayuga County through Onondaga and Madison Counties in New York will see the highest accumulations. During this period upslope snows will increase across northern Vermont in the higher elevations. This will be a multi-day event for this area with amounts approaching two feet above 3000ft by Monday.

Given the length of the fetch and typical northwest flow, a few snow bands may stretch east of the mountains into the central ridge and valley region of Pennsylvania and Poconos. Any accumulations in this area will be isolated and generally around 1-3 inches. A bit of Huron connection may be possible Saturday night during the peak of the lake effect snow event. At this point in the medium range, it is too early to highlight typical bands such as the 322 streamer.

Drier and more stable air will cutoff the cyclonic circulation by early next week with more seasonable temperatures. Winds will also begin to relax.

Regional Radar...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Sustained winds of 20-30mph with gusts approaching 40mph are expected over the region with whiteout conditions possible in snow squalls.
2. Deep moisture field and long fetch will allow snow showers to stretch east of the mountains.
3. Heavy snow accumulations in favored 300 degree snow belts are expected with totals approaching up to 10"
4. First widespread lake effect event of the winter will have greater impacts than normal due to the the infrequency this December.
5. Temperatures and air mass will be marginally cold and generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most areas.

Snow Map...

*The heaviest snow accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations and favored northwest flow snow belt regions. The highest accumulations are expected near the Syracuse metro region and across the upslope effect region of the Green Mountains near Stowe in northern Vermont. Heavy accumulations are also likely up through West Virginia and into the Laurel Highlands. Outside the snow belts snow amounts will be more isolated and dependent on the exact location of the bands and showers which are impossible to forecast exactly at this point in time.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Water Temperature...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Selected City Accumulations"
Erie- 4-6" of snow with higher amounts to the south and east of the city
Meadville, PA- 4-8" of snow
Bradford, PA- 3-6" of snow with higher amounts near Warren County
Butler, PA- 2-4" of snow
Pittsburgh, PA- 1-4" of snow with isolated higher amounts
Latrobe, PA- 1-4" of snow
Indiana, PA- 2-4" of snow
Johnstown, PA- 5-10" of snow with higher amounts possible
Somerset, PA- 4-8" of snow with higher amounts possible
Altoona, PA- 1-4" of snow
Du Bois/Clearfield, PA- 3-6" of snow with locally higher amounts
Philipsburg, PA- 3-5" of snow
State College, PA- 1-3" of snow
Lock Haven, PA- 1-3" of snow
Williamsport, PA- Locally 1-2" of snow
Mt. Pocono, PA- 1-2" of snow
Selinsgrove, PA- Locally 1-2" of snow
Harrisburg, PA- Isolated C-1" of snow
Hagerstown, MD- Isolated C-1" of snow
Cumberland, MD- 1-3" of snow
Frostburg, MD- 2-4" of snow
McHenry, MD- 4-8" of snow
Oakland, MD- 4-9" of snow
Snowshoe, WV- 4-9" of snow
Buffalo, NY- 2-5" of snow with higher amounts to the south and west
Watertown, NY- 3-5" of snow
Syracuse, NY- 6-12" of snow with locally higher amounts
Albany, NY- Locally 1-2" of snow
Ithaca, NY- 1-4" of snow
Binghamton, NY- 1-2" of snow
Saranac Lake, NY- 3-5" of snow
Utica, NY- 5-10" of snow
Burlington, VT- 1-2" of snow. Higher amounts to east approaching 12"
North Conway, NH- 1-4" of snow
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
The GFS is a low resolution global model that typically does not do well in mesoscale events such as lake effect snow. But forecast QPF maps already suggest widespread high amounts over the Northeast snow belts, which is very impressive at this forecast range. A deep moisture field and long northwest fetch is suggested. The ECMWF is also in full support of this event especially across the upslope regions of northern Vermont where an extended multi-day period of heavy snow is possible. Isolated amounts in this region could reach 24" in some areas above 3000ft. All guidance supports a closed low that will allow for a bit of synoptic influence favoring some lighter snows outside the typical snow belts especially for western Pennsylvania and upstate western New York. These amounts will remain light though with QPF less than .15" for most areas. At this range, the NAM and other high resolution guidance is a bit too far out for their time frame. Latest trends in the GFS/ECMWF are showing a possible increase northerly component which would decrease the widespread activity of the snow showers. At this time it looks like the Buffalo metro area will be spared the worst of the event, while areas towards Rochester and Syracuse will be more favored.

After the Storm
As temperature anomalies approach +6F for the month of December for many climatological reporting stations across the Northeast, many are left asking where is winter. A majority of the cold air is locked well to the northwest of the contiguous United States in northern Canada. Even across areas seeing the next bout of winter weather in the Midwest, H85 thermals never even fall below -10C south of the Canadian border. This is a clear indication that much of the nation is well above normal in the temperature department. A +EPO in correspondance with a -PNA will continue to keep the cold air locked up to the north through the end of the month. A few energy meteorologists have been hinting at winter storm chances post Christmas in the Northeast, but given the latest tropical monsoon forcing indices out of the Indian Ocean and the status quo of the current NAO, it is likely these middle latitude cyclones will continue tracking through the Great Lakes. If any secondary cyclogenesis occurs on the east coast, it will only favor far northern New England with wintry precipitation. Unless we see a dramatic change in ensemble guidance and teleconnections, period through the end of December will be snowless across much of the east. While temperatures will likely average near normal, they will feature an oscillating pattern of unseasonable warmth as lows track to the northwest, and then brief arctic air behind the cold fronts.

After a near record dry November, the polar jet has begun to increase in activity as we continue a stormy pattern with several shortwaves per week. This pattern will continue through early January with precipitation totals averaging above normal for all climatological stations. While the MJO forcing remains meager and few changes in the NAO are expected, there are a few signs that the EPO will shift negative and begin to dump some arctic air farther south. As we also enter the coldest portion of the year, it is likely snow chances will begin to increase by early January. That being said, there are no signs of any abnormally snow periods.

Despite another snowless and record warm start to the meteorological winter, the synoptic pattern is very different than last winter. Whether that is encouraging or not, it is critical for snowlovers that we do not see any development of a PV in Alaska. This would disrupt the potentially favorable Pacific by January and allow increasing upper level heights over the eastern United States. The main idea to take from the long term will be a continued stormy pattern of Great Lakes cutters, while the east coast sees mostly rain in association with frontal passages. Any front end warm air advection winter precipitation will likely be confined to northern New England. If any pattern change does occur, it will likely be post New Years.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2012-2013... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 9.5"
Seasonal Total- 10.3"
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 36.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.5F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning event
Enhanced Clipper - December 24 - 2.1" - Christmas Eve Snow!
Miller B - December 26 - 3.3" - 0.15" of freezing rain also
Miller B - December 29 - 4.1" - Moderate all snow event

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Quoting weatherspotter1923:
To MariettaMoon,

The description of Chautauqua County and the Chautauqua ridge goofyrider gave is correct, we just think of it as the escarpment along lake Erie that marks the beginning of the snow belt. The elevations rise about 1/2 to a mile in from the lake and continue higher over the rest of Chautauqua and into Cattaraugus counties, and we get bands of lake effect throughout the area depending on prevailing winds.

This time, southern Chautauqua county got the highest amounts (Jamestown 13, we ended up with 11, Kennedy had 12 etc.) while Cattaraugus and northern Chautauqua (Dunkirk area) was lower. It all depends.

Interestingly, being WNY, we have lots of plows and know how to use them so travel is no problem despite the foot of snow. Today everyone at the busy stores and markets was in a really happy mood despite the wind and cold, I think we were just really ready for lots of snow and now things are back to how they "should" be (at least in our snow-warped minds).


Oh ok, so it's basically the fall line of the Alleghenny Plateau / Great Lakes coastal plain. What's your elevation?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Looks like the 24th-25th snowfall may be well north of what was thought this time yesterday. Boooooo.

The 18z GFS for the bigger system is almost a Great Lakes runner. Boooooo.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
To MariettaMoon,

The description of Chautauqua County and the Chautauqua ridge goofyrider gave is correct, we just think of it as the escarpment along lake Erie that marks the beginning of the snow belt. The elevations rise about 1/2 to a mile in from the lake and continue higher over the rest of Chautauqua and into Cattaraugus counties, and we get bands of lake effect throughout the area depending on prevailing winds.

This time, southern Chautauqua county got the highest amounts (Jamestown 13, we ended up with 11, Kennedy had 12 etc.) while Cattaraugus and northern Chautauqua (Dunkirk area) was lower. It all depends.

Interestingly, being WNY, we have lots of plows and know how to use them so travel is no problem despite the foot of snow. Today everyone at the busy stores and markets was in a really happy mood despite the wind and cold, I think we were just really ready for lots of snow and now things are back to how they "should" be (at least in our snow-warped minds).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even the lake effect event turned out to be a dud for many areas, lol. I always forget when making the forecasting that strong wind events like this often shear apart the streamers leading to accumulations a lot less than expected.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
A little map I made of the 12z 12/22/12 model runs for the 26th-28th event. The GFS took a huge jump inland near the ECMWF. The 12z positions of the CMC is what the GFS used to look like.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Quoting originalLT:
Philly, go to Accuweather bloggers, Check out Accuweather meteorologist Frank Straits latest blog, about 2/3rds of the way down in his Dec. 21st blog, he mentions the effect and what is a positive PNA.
Thanks, LT! Sounds hopeful.

Got a few flurries here; wind is really kicking up.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
fyi moon: from wick... Chautauqua County, in the southwestern corner of New York State, along the New York-Pennsylvania border, is the westernmost of New York's counties. Chautauqua Lake is located in the center of the county, and Lake Erie is its northern border.
Part of the Eastern Continental Divide runs through Chautauqua County. The area that drains into the Conewango Creek (including Chautauqua Lake) eventually empties into the Gulf of Mexico; the rest of the county's watershed empties into Lake Erie and out into the North Atlantic Ocean. This divide, known as the Chautauqua Ridge, can be used to mark the border between the Southern Tier and the Niagara Frontier.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2726
Mt. Holly discussion...

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW CONTS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR MONDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO TRACK EWD AND PASS THROUGH DELMARVA EARLY XMAS MORN. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA PROBABLY STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTN. PCPN TYPE IS SMWHT UNCERTAIN...ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE COASTAL NJ
AND SRN DE WILL BE TOO WARM OVERNIGHT FOR ANY TYPE BUT RAIN. HWVR FARTHER N COULD SEE A MIX OF PCPN...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WELL N AND W OF PHL.

PCPN SHOULD END OVER MOST AREAS BY MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDS FOR THE SEASON. HWVR THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE POWERFUL STORM WINDS UP AND MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE LOWER MS VLY TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE OF COURSE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THIS RANGE...HWVR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING RAIN OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH A WINTRY MIX FURTHER N. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LOW LOCATION WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS FARTHER N...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN IN THE NRN MID ATLANTIC.

THE WEEK IS FCST TO END WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WX BUT THEN YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM IS INDCD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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Quoting weatherspotter1923:
We got about eight inches last night here on the southern part of the Chautauqua ridge. It snowed all day but not significant accumulations, the heavy lake effect started about 8 pm. I was up at 2 am and couldn't see out the windows and knew we were getting a lot (we don't have any outside lights around our house, we live in the woods). Beautiful blue sky and sunshine on the new snow this morning as the bands are north of me now. Still very windy. It finally really looks like Western New York in December around here!

Will update more later if we get more.


Where exactly is the Chautauqua Ridge? I've tried searching it and can't find it. I believe it's in Chautauqua County. Are you near Chautauqua Lake?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Philly, go to Accuweather bloggers, Check out Accuweather meteorologist Frank Straits latest blog, about 2/3rds of the way down in his Dec. 21st blog, he mentions the effect and what is a positive PNA.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
So far our forecast is for rain and possibly a mix in the overnights, but we still have a little time for temps to be colder than expected.

LT or anyone - I'm curious about the PNA going positive and what that means. Is it a significant pattern change? If anyone can point me to a good resource explaining, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
We got about eight inches last night here on the southern part of the Chautauqua ridge. It snowed all day but not significant accumulations, the heavy lake effect started about 8 pm. I was up at 2 am and couldn't see out the windows and knew we were getting a lot (we don't have any outside lights around our house, we live in the woods). Beautiful blue sky and sunshine on the new snow this morning as the bands are north of me now. Still very windy. It finally really looks like Western New York in December around here!

Will update more later if we get more.
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Now we're getting the wind and cold weather in Brooklyn that I thought, as usual, would have been here yesterday. No flurries.

I'm flying to the West coast tomorrow on an trip that my kids make to visit distant family every few years, so not going to be here for the first time in decades, and gonna miss a likely white Christmas, bwah!... I'll be monitoring you all, 'though. Have a Merry!
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Wow has it been windy this morning. You hear the whirling sound all around the house. he temperature hasn't really changed much the last 24 hours. Still around 37F
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Confluence, PA elevation 1336". Currently, heavy snow and gusting winds. This was a 20 second exposure with the blur coming from all the snow. I didn't measure as most areas are falsely low or high because of drifting.
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Grandfather Mountain
We've broken a 3-second wind gust record tonight. 121 mph has been recorded at the equipment on the Mile High Swinging Bridge over the last hour.
Track it yourself at this link: http://www.grandfather.com/current-conditions/
Current Conditions
www.grandfather.com
7 minutes ago ยท
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Last thing the east coast needs is a snow storm sandy victims are trying to rebuild and need a mild winter. Keep the snow in the mountains
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flurries here today! A good omen? A precursor? Very interesting, finally!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
I'm getting a bit excited.
Is that a good idea?
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96. bwi
The regional radar posted above is pretty excellent (9:40pm EST), you can see a wind line pushing through the Chesapeake Bay, and the lake effect is really starting to crank near the lake shores.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
95. bwi
Wind picking up quite a bit now in the DC area. Was pretty tame when I was riding home at about 7-8pm, but now it's howling quite a bit more. The kids said we had flurries at home today, but I didn't see any in downtown DC.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Grandfather Mountain, NC gusted to 115mph this evening before communication was lost.

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting Blizzard92:
18z GFS numbers for KMDT:

0.4" of QPF for Christmas Eve/Day - All snow

0.66" of QPF for the 27th winter storm - All snow


very interesting. and look how you guys were the past couple of weeks. so down about the weather.

Blizz - do you still expect a possible 322 streamer this weekend?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In my little town today:

Jericho 70mph 1100 am 12/21 dept of highways
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Blizz,
I wonder in time, just like the last storm and it goes way west-any chance of that?
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
18z GFS numbers for KMDT:

0.4" of QPF for Christmas Eve/Day - All snow

0.66" of QPF for the 27th winter storm - All snow
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
GFS Ensemble mean is not an Apps runner...
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
First widespread wind snow east of the mountains in NC today...accumulations were limited to the mountains though.

It was fairly persistent here in the foothills...temp near 34...high winds did not let anything accumulate.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
NAo going positive, is usually not a good sign for snow, BUT, the PNA is going positive, which usually helps an East Coast snow chance. So go figure?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
Nao going positive
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Quoting Blizzard92:
18z GFS Christmas miracle?
3-7in from northern Maryland to southern Pennsylvania for Christmas


Then major nor'easter for the 26-28th period...



Blizz,
By the looks of those maps, where I live in the South HIlls of Pittsburgh we might pick up a decent amount next week and east into the ski resort of Seven Springs..............but I am not saying anything.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
18z GFS Christmas miracle?
3-7in from northern Maryland to southern Pennsylvania for Christmas


Then major nor'easter for the 26-28th period...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
Wow, the computer models are just beautiful for this upcoming week across the Middle Atlantic and parts of southern New England. I am trying not to get too excited given the putrid pattern, but I am growing in confidence for the Christmas eve storm at least.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
Merry Christmas to all the Northeast bloggers,hope everyone has a great holiday and that snow that everyone would like to see for Christmas.You guys have a better chance then me up here in Mass.We'll see.


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Quoting Blizzard92:
Starting to see a semi-substantial threat for an amplified clipper Christmas eve and day across the Middle Atlantic. Areas north of the track may see a nice 1-4in of snow; currently most guidance favors most of Pennsylvania, but it is still a few days out.


I noticed WU has up to 3" for Christmas Eve for LSV. That would be a change around here. It's not too often do we see snow on Christmas Eve. Not often at all.

The storm on Wednesday they are forecasting heavy snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Potential for snow is coming, however I not making predictions until 24-36 hrs out, I was way wrong for Monday thru Yesterday. Currently in Pittsburgh we are experiencing some bursts of snow, just got home after fighting through traffic, people were in panic mode with a quick 1/4 inch,

Checked out a couple of twitter sites, they are saying there is the potential for some decent snow in my neck of the woods and the appalachians by the time next week is done,



Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
Im liking what I am seeing from a snow potential point of view. Looks like a decent shot of a White Xmas after all for some.

Gripe- offices that border one another not talking to one another about the forecasts they are releasing. For example NWS has Stamford, CT with Snow Likely 60% on Monday Night, but in White Plains (20 miles away) there is not even a mention of snow in the forecast. I've seen it happen before and it just bothers me haha.

Anyone have any insight about this and why it occurs? Much appreciated.
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Going to be interesting to see where Next weeks Thursday storm is going to track.
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I would say I had a noteworthy event last night.

All hell seemed to break loose between 3 and 4. Winds were howling, gusts clocked out at around 50-60 mph and were blowing consistently. There wasn't much rain but the rain that did fall sure splashed around. When I woke up this morning it was evident that there was a wind event - trash cans toppled and rolling in the yard, decorations blown over, small branches in the street.

Sensitive roads experienced significant flooding and a few remain closed as I write this. Evacuations had to be enacted near the Delaware River in Burlington, NJ. The tidal surge along a creek a couple miles away from me crept into some people's houses. Philadelphia's tide gauge was also at major flood stage.

The small fishing villages on the Delaware Bay seem to take this in the neck. The tidal flooding and worst weather coincided with high tide, and there has been dangerous water rise at the bay towns. The small town of Dorchester had 4 to 5 feet of water on its main street. This stretch of coastline is very sparsely populated, but people do live there. The water is receding now.

It's an oddity that I didn't lose power. The power grid where I live is stunningly resilient; I remember a thunderstorm that produced 70-80 mph wind gusts in 2010 and power flicked right back on maybe 5 minutes afterwards. Irene, Sandy, earthquake, 3 feet of snow, derecho, etc. None of them could unplug me. Knock on wood that my fortune continues.
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Starting to see a semi-substantial threat for an amplified clipper Christmas eve and day across the Middle Atlantic. Areas north of the track may see a nice 1-4in of snow; currently most guidance favors most of Pennsylvania, but it is still a few days out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
Sun's out. Phone's dead. Wind's high. good day to write a mystery novel.

Wait! Wait! WE HAVE POWER!!! The world will have to deal with reality instead. LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Quoting PhillySnow:
Oh no! Don't say it. Don't even think it! There will be snow. Falling from the skies in great quantities. :)


Got my vote!! If needed, cross over into Vermont. ;-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
11K w/o power here now. Wind is still raging. Oddly, there's a patch of blue sky over my head.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Quoting listenerVT:


They "should" have snow by them, if we're not in the middle of a January thaw.
Oh no! Don't say it. Don't even think it! There will be snow. Falling from the skies in great quantities. :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
We're up to 10,000 without power in Vermont now. Mine's still out. Mount Mansfield had a gust of 86mph. Down here we're seeing gusts that look like 40's.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201212 21/NEWS/312210010/More-than-10-000-without-power-s trong-winds-blow-through-Vermont

We have soaking rain today that is melting the snow away. However, tomorrow promises a fresh coating in the valleys and more for the ski areas. Since it will be cold after that, a white Christmas is expected here. Scroll down to the weather writeup:
http://m.wcax.com/default.aspx
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Quoting PhillySnow:

Congratulations on your snow, Listener! We'll be up at Lake George at the end of January. Do you think they'll have snow by then? (I see mixes in their forecasts.)


They "should" have snow by them, if we're not in the middle of a January thaw.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Quoting Blizzard92:
I would love to make it clickable, but I am not sure how to go about doing that...


Ah, that does make it tricky. :-)

Sully has it clickable on his page, somehow; maybe he'd share the how.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
High resolution guidance showing that some streamers may make it east of the mountains this weekend. Given the moisture and fetch, that is quite possible with spotty 1-2in or so for some areas.


CTP: THIS STRONG WNW FLOW REGIME FAVORS SEVERAL NARROW/INTENSE BANDS OF
SNOW SQUALLS BEING DRIVEN WELL INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
SUSQ REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A QUICK COATING TO
2 INCHES IN SOME LOCALS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
1.46in of rain here last night; currently 39F with a few snow flurries in Linglestown

Quoting MariettaMoon:
Don't wanna jump the gun, especially seeing we're in the middle of an event right now...Blizz, any thoughts on Wednesday-Thursday?

A lot of questions on timing, but I certainly think there will be a storm. It does not look likely that this is an I-95 snow event, too much warm air. I am going to look at the situation a bit closer today.

Quoting listenerVT:
Hi Blizz.
Can you make the Regional Advisories map clickable to this address:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/


Thanks!

I would love to make it clickable, but I am not sure how to go about doing that...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
Baro. down to 29.11" have had alot of rain and wind. Will check my rain gauge soon. Had a leak in my kitchen ceiling from the rain and wind. Will have to check the roof later.. Stamford CT. (55F). (total rain I received, 1.04")
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
Ended up with 1.50" of rain for the storm.

The WU forecast for next week looks snowy. Has anyone seen any model runs about Monday evening and Wednesday evening? They are mentioning accumulating snow for both evenings
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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