Widespread Lake Effect/Upslope Snows Expected Later this Week...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:05 PM GMT on December 18, 2012

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Posted Tuesday, 18 December 2012

A closed upper level low will continue to slowly move through southern Canada and upstate New York during the later half of the upcoming week. A deep trough and subsequent northwest flow will allow for the first prolonged lake effect snow event of the year. Widespread upslope snows are also expected across the Appalachians up through the White/Green Mountains. Accumulations will be widespread in the snow belt regions, but generally light to moderate amounts.

Lake Effect Snow Outbreak December 21-23, 2012
A significant winter storm will be tracking through the Midwest and Great Lakes by the middle of this week. This 992mb surface low will track across the Great Lakes and begin to weaken across western New York. A closed upper level low will begin to slowly meander across southern Canada increasing moisture under a northwest flow behind the steep cold front. H85 thermals will fall to a meager -6C, but given that lake temperatures are near 10F above normal, there will be enough of a gradient to spark a widespread lake effect event. The flow for the duration of the event will be around 300-315 degrees with possibly an even more northerly component depending on the track of the ULL. Limited instability will prevent significant banding, but nevertheless with PWATs +0.5SD there will be widespread snow shower activity for several days across the region.

This flow will increase snows across favored upslope and orographic locations from northern West Virginia up through the Laurel Highlands. Favored peaks in Garret County, MD up through Mt. Davis, PA and Laurel Summit, PA may see upwards of 10" of snow during this period. Current model QPF is already at an impressive ~0.5 inches. Across the Chautauqua Ridge in southwestern New York, upslope totals may also approach 10" of snow. This will help lay a fresh snow pack to several ski resorts in the region that are featuring a seasonal snow deficit of nearly two feet to date. As drier air begins to rotate into the region on Saturday, widespread light snow shower activity (with a few enhanced SN bands) will begin to focus into a more cellular nature under diurnal forcing. Mesoscale guidance indicates the development of several stronger bands off of Ontario down through possibly Rochester and Syracuse. UUV and omega growth peak during this period allowing for excellent dendritic growth. Snow ratios during this period may approach 17:1 with snow rates at 1in/hr in some locations. Northern Cayuga County through Onondaga and Madison Counties in New York will see the highest accumulations. During this period upslope snows will increase across northern Vermont in the higher elevations. This will be a multi-day event for this area with amounts approaching two feet above 3000ft by Monday.

Given the length of the fetch and typical northwest flow, a few snow bands may stretch east of the mountains into the central ridge and valley region of Pennsylvania and Poconos. Any accumulations in this area will be isolated and generally around 1-3 inches. A bit of Huron connection may be possible Saturday night during the peak of the lake effect snow event. At this point in the medium range, it is too early to highlight typical bands such as the 322 streamer.

Drier and more stable air will cutoff the cyclonic circulation by early next week with more seasonable temperatures. Winds will also begin to relax.

Regional Radar...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Sustained winds of 20-30mph with gusts approaching 40mph are expected over the region with whiteout conditions possible in snow squalls.
2. Deep moisture field and long fetch will allow snow showers to stretch east of the mountains.
3. Heavy snow accumulations in favored 300 degree snow belts are expected with totals approaching up to 10"
4. First widespread lake effect event of the winter will have greater impacts than normal due to the the infrequency this December.
5. Temperatures and air mass will be marginally cold and generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most areas.

Snow Map...

*The heaviest snow accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations and favored northwest flow snow belt regions. The highest accumulations are expected near the Syracuse metro region and across the upslope effect region of the Green Mountains near Stowe in northern Vermont. Heavy accumulations are also likely up through West Virginia and into the Laurel Highlands. Outside the snow belts snow amounts will be more isolated and dependent on the exact location of the bands and showers which are impossible to forecast exactly at this point in time.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Water Temperature...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Selected City Accumulations"
Erie- 4-6" of snow with higher amounts to the south and east of the city
Meadville, PA- 4-8" of snow
Bradford, PA- 3-6" of snow with higher amounts near Warren County
Butler, PA- 2-4" of snow
Pittsburgh, PA- 1-4" of snow with isolated higher amounts
Latrobe, PA- 1-4" of snow
Indiana, PA- 2-4" of snow
Johnstown, PA- 5-10" of snow with higher amounts possible
Somerset, PA- 4-8" of snow with higher amounts possible
Altoona, PA- 1-4" of snow
Du Bois/Clearfield, PA- 3-6" of snow with locally higher amounts
Philipsburg, PA- 3-5" of snow
State College, PA- 1-3" of snow
Lock Haven, PA- 1-3" of snow
Williamsport, PA- Locally 1-2" of snow
Mt. Pocono, PA- 1-2" of snow
Selinsgrove, PA- Locally 1-2" of snow
Harrisburg, PA- Isolated C-1" of snow
Hagerstown, MD- Isolated C-1" of snow
Cumberland, MD- 1-3" of snow
Frostburg, MD- 2-4" of snow
McHenry, MD- 4-8" of snow
Oakland, MD- 4-9" of snow
Snowshoe, WV- 4-9" of snow
Buffalo, NY- 2-5" of snow with higher amounts to the south and west
Watertown, NY- 3-5" of snow
Syracuse, NY- 6-12" of snow with locally higher amounts
Albany, NY- Locally 1-2" of snow
Ithaca, NY- 1-4" of snow
Binghamton, NY- 1-2" of snow
Saranac Lake, NY- 3-5" of snow
Utica, NY- 5-10" of snow
Burlington, VT- 1-2" of snow. Higher amounts to east approaching 12"
North Conway, NH- 1-4" of snow
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
The GFS is a low resolution global model that typically does not do well in mesoscale events such as lake effect snow. But forecast QPF maps already suggest widespread high amounts over the Northeast snow belts, which is very impressive at this forecast range. A deep moisture field and long northwest fetch is suggested. The ECMWF is also in full support of this event especially across the upslope regions of northern Vermont where an extended multi-day period of heavy snow is possible. Isolated amounts in this region could reach 24" in some areas above 3000ft. All guidance supports a closed low that will allow for a bit of synoptic influence favoring some lighter snows outside the typical snow belts especially for western Pennsylvania and upstate western New York. These amounts will remain light though with QPF less than .15" for most areas. At this range, the NAM and other high resolution guidance is a bit too far out for their time frame. Latest trends in the GFS/ECMWF are showing a possible increase northerly component which would decrease the widespread activity of the snow showers. At this time it looks like the Buffalo metro area will be spared the worst of the event, while areas towards Rochester and Syracuse will be more favored.

After the Storm
As temperature anomalies approach +6F for the month of December for many climatological reporting stations across the Northeast, many are left asking where is winter. A majority of the cold air is locked well to the northwest of the contiguous United States in northern Canada. Even across areas seeing the next bout of winter weather in the Midwest, H85 thermals never even fall below -10C south of the Canadian border. This is a clear indication that much of the nation is well above normal in the temperature department. A +EPO in correspondance with a -PNA will continue to keep the cold air locked up to the north through the end of the month. A few energy meteorologists have been hinting at winter storm chances post Christmas in the Northeast, but given the latest tropical monsoon forcing indices out of the Indian Ocean and the status quo of the current NAO, it is likely these middle latitude cyclones will continue tracking through the Great Lakes. If any secondary cyclogenesis occurs on the east coast, it will only favor far northern New England with wintry precipitation. Unless we see a dramatic change in ensemble guidance and teleconnections, period through the end of December will be snowless across much of the east. While temperatures will likely average near normal, they will feature an oscillating pattern of unseasonable warmth as lows track to the northwest, and then brief arctic air behind the cold fronts.

After a near record dry November, the polar jet has begun to increase in activity as we continue a stormy pattern with several shortwaves per week. This pattern will continue through early January with precipitation totals averaging above normal for all climatological stations. While the MJO forcing remains meager and few changes in the NAO are expected, there are a few signs that the EPO will shift negative and begin to dump some arctic air farther south. As we also enter the coldest portion of the year, it is likely snow chances will begin to increase by early January. That being said, there are no signs of any abnormally snow periods.

Despite another snowless and record warm start to the meteorological winter, the synoptic pattern is very different than last winter. Whether that is encouraging or not, it is critical for snowlovers that we do not see any development of a PV in Alaska. This would disrupt the potentially favorable Pacific by January and allow increasing upper level heights over the eastern United States. The main idea to take from the long term will be a continued stormy pattern of Great Lakes cutters, while the east coast sees mostly rain in association with frontal passages. Any front end warm air advection winter precipitation will likely be confined to northern New England. If any pattern change does occur, it will likely be post New Years.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2012-2013... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 9.5"
Seasonal Total- 10.3"
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 36.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.5F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning event
Enhanced Clipper - December 24 - 2.1" - Christmas Eve Snow!
Miller B - December 26 - 3.3" - 0.15" of freezing rain also
Miller B - December 29 - 4.1" - Moderate all snow event

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Mount Holly consistent with 2-4" except 1-2" towards coastlines/mixing concerns.

New York has seemingly begun to favor heavier totals. 3-4" now.

Taunton MA is holding firm with their totals. Mostly 2-4" as well with some hints 4-5" around 495 to RI region, and rain/mix on the cape.



Interesting to note the NWS seemingly ignores that models show next to nothing for central and southern NJ and have gone with 2-4", 1-2" immediate coast. Models seem to follow I95 as the rain/snow line while NWS has a more west-east snow line in southern NJ with some tapering further inland further south you go.


And by interesting I of course mean frustrating, annoying, and why do we wait until the event is nearly over to be able to properly forecast it?

Something odd to me regarding the tentative nature of this forecast.

Also curious is the widespread mid-30s high temps throughout the regions coupled with all-snow forecasts and calls for 2-4".


I dunno...somethings off...and it all goes back to Mt Holly a couple discussions back alluding to an awful lot of if/ands/thens in regards to potential phasing, when, where, ETC.

Anyone else feel the high bust and high hit potential here? Like it's there so they've simply split the difference? Uniformly office to office?

...dream world.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
The 12Z NAM came in double to triple the QPF and Snowfall amounts of previous runs.

Showing 9" in Chatham,MA.

I know there are some, as Blizz is one, who has the cape as snow and a good deal at that.

There are some that have it as rain or mix, as the NWS does.

Anyone have any thoughts here? Models having problems depicting how the low will intensify and where it turns northward heading towards Nova Scotia?

Looks like Eastern MA is a confusing forecast at this point.

...

The rest of us seem to be holding firm with the widespread 2-4", possibly less in mix prone areas, possibly more in 'heavy banding' areas.

I feel like there is still uncertainty in this storm and nobody really wants to commit lower towards bust or higher into Watch/Warning potentials.... so everyone is just echoing "2-4" and mentioning the mix lines as an out.

*shrug*

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
NY and CT offices resisting the WWX?
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Winter Weather Advisory up for DC Metro. 1-3 inches being predicted at the moment. Thanks blizz for your map. Waiting
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
Really thought we ourselves a good one earlier this week,but hopes have been dashed,but who knows I might wake up Sunday morning and find myself surprised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
310. bwi
Thanks for the map -- looking forward to at least an inch or two in DC!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1384
Thanks Blizz, P, and MM for the weather info and forecasts. I'm following everything closely today, of course; really wanting a decent snow.

Mount Holly had us at 2-4" and just downgraded us to 1-3". I think they saw your map and reconsidered, Blizz! :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1235
GIS map I made of PA/NJ from the 26th-27th storm. I don't have the liscense to do an interpolation (need to get one) so I had to do it with just point data. I included all values without a quality check. Obviously, use common sense in determining the few values that seem too low. Most of them are pretty good though.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Thanks Zach!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7592
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z NAM with QPF amounts now above .4in for much of Pennsylvania up through New England. I think with snow ratios we could be talking a widespread 3-6in snowfall northwest of I-95.


Interesting since both the NAM and GFS seemed to be pretty low on their totals.

The NAM especially has recently been a low and warm outlier with these systems.

Perhaps the different low approach as we move into what seems like a more zonal flow...is what the NAM is better at.


Honestly it seemed at first we could be headed for a widespread 4-8" Philly--Boston type event. (going back a few days ago).

Then I saw that the first storm was going to linger and meander on Thursday and knew it'd put a wrench in all of that.

Yet now it seems like the forecasting may be a bit on the lower side of things?

I guess we will see a correction this evening and an uptick in forecasted totals.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
Morning folks.

29F overnight here in Tinton Falls NJ -- above the forecasting and modeling of 22-25F.

I wonder if there are implications.

As I felt until the meandering lingering low departed that the models weren't able to properly depict the upcoming environment for the Saturday low.

They didn't and we can see while it wasn't too far off it certainly made a difference.

Trended warmer despite a further south low solution and of course lighter precip.

Still seems to be some if ands buts involved in forecast discussions - where is the heavier band - how far north does the warmth get - which could put some folks (Philly into central/southern NJ) in the inch of slush to 4-5 inches of snow - either or - Clusteryouknowwhat of a forecasting problem!

So, stay tuned to those fine details which as we know never come until the onset of an event.

For now it looks like mix or rain at the coasts. Could be a 0" bust to a 2" mess.

Not too far inland could be 2" bust to 4-5" luck of the draw with the expected short lived banding setting up.

Not sure where I'd place this storm but I think the NWS is using the proper approach with this one.. 2-4" widespread, watch where the mix lines set up for more or less in those borderline areas.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
I will post a snow map within the hour or so!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
That would be nice Blizz! I think I would be included this time.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7592
12z NAM with QPF amounts now above .4in for much of Pennsylvania up through New England. I think with snow ratios we could be talking a widespread 3-6in snowfall northwest of I-95.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Thanks, doom!


TheF1Man ~ That's a good link. Thanks!
I just wanted to be able to follow the storm predictions a bit earlier than they tend to get posted.
Decisions need info. :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
listener-
Not sure if this answers your question, but other than this blog I check the NWS snowfall prediction maps and compare to say TWC predictions (just to see). During the storm I like checking this radar:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current .aspx?animate=true

What kind of link are you looking for?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
Listener, I love the pix!
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
pittsburghnurse ~
Clusters happen when snowflakes fall through warmer air and get a coating of water on them, making them sticky. Cool, huh?


Thanks, TheF1Man ~
Do you have a particularly good link for keeping watch over this weekend storm?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
Awesome pics listener! Fun was over me around 8pm last night. Some snow still on non-road surfaces here, likely turning to ice tonight. Hoping the weekend storm brings us better here.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
Official report for yesterday's storm from Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, 4.9" South Hills. I know some areas got a little more, some a little less. That is a perfect amount of snow. I like that half-foot mark. No road closures but driving conditions were strictly for AWD. Road crews couldn't keep up with the rates of falling snow. Walking not too much of a challenge but enough when combined with our hilly terrain.

I noticed huge flakes in yesterday's storm. Bigger than I've ever seen. What causes huge snowflakes? I've always wondered why individual snowflakes cluster like that.

Today everything is blanketed in white. Ollie my dog is loving eating it, running in it and unburying toys.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting PengSnow:
Listener-Nice Pics---Thanks for sharing!!!


You're welcome. :-)

In my opinion, 10" of snow is perfect for sports, walks and messing around. I wish I could send the other 6" to folks who are snow starved!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
Listener-Nice Pics---Thanks for sharing!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
We had perfect snow all day, then when I went out to shovel off my car I could suddenly hear the snow, as it seemed to take on an icy quality. It wasn't ice pellets, though. I think it had simply shifted from being sticky snow to powder snow. Here's a photo of the powder:

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
It was an excellent day for cross country skiing. That's not sleet, the snow was just falling too fast to catch it without flash.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
My Mini


Mini Mohawk :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
It's a magical world!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
The birds looked so forlorn today. We kept the feeders full to help them out.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
Quoting snowinvermont:
16-18" so far near Smugglers Notch. Still snowing hard. Haven't even got to the upslope wraparound!!!!!


Sweet! 16" here in Jericho and still falling.
I'll be posting photos as they upload. Here's another:

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
Hallo all!

Here in NW VT, I have 16" of snow (so far!)...



Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
285. bwi
...DAYS 2 AND 3...

...MID-ATLANTIC/OH VLY TO COASTAL NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

THE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE LWR MS VLY AND ITS POSSIBLE PHASING ALONG THE MID-ATL
COASTLINE WITH A VIGOROUS NRN STREAM VORT SEEMS TO HAVE NARROWED
SOME WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY AGREEABLE AND HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE EC MEAN ON A SRN STREAM
LOW SLIDING FROM SRN MS TO SRN GA BEFORE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
TRANSFER OFF THE COAST TO MEET THE NRN STREAM AND DEVELOP A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATL COASTLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
ON TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF ON SAT... ONE ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST
COASTS AND ANOTHER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OR ALONG
THE MTN SPINE IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS WOULD ALLOW .25 TO .50 INCH
QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH 4 AND 8 INCH HVY SNOW PROBS.
NOW IN QUESTION ON SAT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP AND
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO SLICE THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA TO SRN
NJ... SO TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS QUICK SYSTEM. BY SUN... THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE NERN SEABOARD...
AS IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST UVVS/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REMAIN WELL
OFF THE COAST AND JUST CLIPS RI/ERN MA AND COASTAL MAINE. OVERALL
HPC FAVORED THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF HEAVILY BOTH DAYS FOR THE
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT HEAVY SNOW PROBS.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1384
284. bwi
Saturday looking good for parts of PA, but DC still on the edge.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1384
GFS sure hints this is another pattern change.

Looking to do colder more zonal southerly systems. Then some dry and cold, then clippers appearing late in the 10-day runs.

Are we looking at a January desert followed by a return of coastal systems in February?


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
16-18" so far near Smugglers Notch. Still snowing hard. Haven't even got to the upslope wraparound!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mt. Holly on Saturday's event:

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...DIFFERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNT
SOLUTIONS BUT LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... SINCE THE TIMING OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WILL DICTATES DURATION AND AMOUNTS...WE ARE
FORECASTING A GENERAL 6 TO 12 HOUR EVENT WITH POTENTIAL WATCH AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST PA...S NJ.. PORTIONS OF NE MD AND N DE.. 4 INCHES. ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR AT LEAST NECESSARY ROAD TREATMENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW GROWTH MAY ALLOW AN INCH/HOUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN NE MD AND DE TO PERMIT A BIT OF MELTING
ON PAVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3588
Im down to 992 mb,not too shabby.Amazing how many storms so far this year that have really been deep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know we still have an ongoing storm in northeast, but with these marginal Warning potential snow amounts possible for some coastal areas Saturday... Do we expect a Watch to be posted this evening?
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
3.9 in rain for last 7 days. Half of that came last night.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2788
This storm is far from over in my neck of the blog! We have about a foot of snow so far and the heavy snow is still falling!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
Quoting Pcroton:
Saturday looks increasingly interesting for many more people to get a snow storm. Let's see how the models feel about that come later today or tomorrow morning once this storm has finished departing.



Could you say a word about WHERE the Saturday storm looks to be headed? I'm driving to a family gathering from NW VT to the Boston area. Back on Sunday. Good to go?

Yikes! Just saw bwi's comment at 262. Sounds like I'd better watch this one closely!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
I truly feel we need to get this current lingering system out of the way before the models can accurately pick up on the correct surrounding environment left behind - and then thus properly develop/intensify the new low.

Flip Flopping will be there both in intensity and ptype as the models mishandle the percevied environment for the new storm run to run...as this lingering system continues to create initialization havoc for them.

When reading the Mt Holly discussion this morning their wording sounds very tentative...a lot of if then type reading it seems. This should do this then that will do that. The formative portion of this system going down into the mid-atlantic inland areas phase seems complex.

I think we're stuck until later today or tomorrow morning. Unfortunately that does not give us much time prior to the onset of the next event but if we want detail we're going to have to wait.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
Well - didn't get to update as much as possible because I was out playing in snow longer than I thought I was going to be :)

Did a fun 2 hr snowshoe excursion through town last night - took advantage of a storm that seemed to be something from what I remember winter being like (NO RAIN ! NO ICE !).

Anyways, from downtown Dansville, NY in the western Finger Lakes - measured 13" this morning after it probably settled out by a couple inches.

Not snowing anymore - now here comes the cold and wind !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Final Report from the South Hills of Pittsburgh, little less than 6 inches of mostly snow, my guess is that we would have been in the 8-9inch range. The next storm, i do not expect to be potent, by the now will be widespread with the higher terrain getting the most--for my area on the very high side will be 3-5 inches
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
You could be right stormchaser 43, but to be so definitive, can be a bit fool-hardy. Remember, there are only two sure things in life, Death and Taxes!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7592
Tinton Falls, NJ

Speaking to the OEM guy who is in our neighborhood and he said numerous wires down and flooded closed streets in the town.

It was a good storm for sure. Followed the strongest model solutions.

Impressive season so far! We've definitely been locked in a zone since abour March 2009 here. A little lull last winter was it and we've been right back at it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
Quoting stormchaser43:
models should drop that run as soon as new data comes in.no snow for you,,


Ok,they've been flip flopping,so what do you base that on. It wouldn't surprise me,but a lot of them we're strengthening this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pcroton:


That model has been awful since it's dual score of Sandy and the snow storm that followed.

Remember, it had two more superstorms lined up in the pipeline and they were ghost storms.

Does it get back on the wagon here? Who knows...but I wouldn't be too interested in it given it's recent awful showing during this current weather pattern.

Unless this current storm is ushering in a new pattern....and the ECMWF is latching onto that new pattern... I'd be suspicious.

I guess there are some hints we're about to change. Well below normal temps to begin January. Perhaps Saturday's snow storm is the first of the "new pattern".

Let's see how the continuity goes here. Might be time to hop off the GFS as this pattern it handled so well comes to a close.

And thus is the continued problem with the science and the programming of the models.



Yeh,wouldn't go with that model,but the others are beginning to strenthen the next system,so would not be surprised if here in eastern mass we have some plowable snow.As with most of these coastal storms,it really depends where it deepens sooner or out at sea to late to have much effect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
Did somebody feed the ECMWF with extra holiday energy?
SATURDAY...
THIS IS WHERE THE DRAMA BUILDS AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF GOES BONKERS
WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AT 06Z SUN THE
ECMWF AS A 972 LOW OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND FURTHER BOMBING
TO ABOUT 959 MB JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 18Z SUN! THIS RAPID
DEEPENING GENERATES QPF OFF THE CHARTS WITH STORM TOTAL OF 2+
/LIQUID/ OVER CAPE COD!


That model has been awful since it's dual score of Sandy and the snow storm that followed.

Remember, it had two more superstorms lined up in the pipeline and they were ghost storms.

Does it get back on the wagon here? Who knows...but I wouldn't be too interested in it given it's recent awful showing during this current weather pattern.

Unless this current storm is ushering in a new pattern....and the ECMWF is latching onto that new pattern... I'd be suspicious.

I guess there are some hints we're about to change. Well below normal temps to begin January. Perhaps Saturday's snow storm is the first of the "new pattern".

Let's see how the continuity goes here. Might be time to hop off the GFS as this pattern it handled so well comes to a close.

And thus is the continued problem with the science and the programming of the models.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
Had a feeling those winds were really intense... like 60mph or more intense last night. They were. Radar estimates puts me at 4" from the event. Without a doubt given the flooding.

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Jersey Shore residents were buffeted with winds as high as 74 mph, according to the National Weather Service. The strongest gust of wind was 74 mph recorded in Brick at about 9:30 p.m. Wednesday. Other parts of Ocean County experienced gusts of up to 70 mph, and a 61 mph gust was recorded in Sandy Hook.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 53 Comments: 8224
6" of snow in hyde park,ny followed by almost an 1" of sleet and trace of freezing rain. Now on ground is about 4" of packed sleet snow.
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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