Northeast Winter Forecast 2012-2013

By: Zachary Labe , 5:28 AM GMT on November 09, 2012

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Zachary Labe
08 November 2012
Winter Forecast 2012-2013

Many areas are beginning to clean up after another impressive coastal storm moved up the eastern seaboard with high winds, snow, and heavy rain. Heavy snow accumulations occurred in many areas from Delaware up through Maine breaking 100 year snowfall records in some locations for the month of November. Maximum snow accumulations reached as high as 13.0" in Freehold, New Jersey, but even parts of the New York City metro region saw as much as 7.0" of snow. A narrow baroclinic zone off the coast of New Jersey allowed for a period of rapid cyclogenesis as the low pressure became vertically stacked. Precipitation began to spread inland beginning as a mix of light rain/snow/sleet for much of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. As the surface low began to deepen sub 996mb, frontogenic forcing allowed for several mesoscale bands to form from central New Jersey up through New York City and into southcentral Connecticut.

Snow rates exceeded 1in/hr. Temperatures began to drop hovering around 32-34F courtesy of the impressive dynamic cooling responsible from the banding structures. Snow ratios remained low and in some places 4.0" of snow melted down to 0.70in of QPF. The 12 hour radar loop from last night shows the near steady position of the intense band for almost 6 hours. By later in the night, the surface low began to decouple halting further strengthening. The precipitation shield began to become a bit more disorganized and dBz returns began to wane. Once rates decreased, boundary layer temperatures began to rebound into the mid to upper 30s along the I-95 corridor and the snow began to melt from the both the bottom and top layers. Widespread tree damage has been reported throughout much of New Jersey into southern Connecticut especially given the weakened foliage post Hurricane Sandy. Fortunately, it appears a quieter weather pattern is headed our direction over the next two to three weeks. Computer models verification charts show relatively fare scores for this nor'easter with the NAM likely the most accurate in the 24 hour forecast lead time. It was able to pick up on the eastern jog and tight precipitation gradient; this is likely due to the NAM's higher resolution and hydrostatic capabilities.

Winter 2011-2012 was characterized by a moderate La Nina. The Oceanic Nino Index numbers for December through February averaged around -0.9. A strong, dominant southeast ridge flooded much of the east with warmer air preventing the classic Miller A and B nor'easters. The Climate Prediction Center's mean NAO for the winter of 2011-2012 averages out to around a peak of +2. An unfavorable Pacific and stationary Alaskan Vortex also prevented colder air from penetrating south into the contiguous United States. Much of the nation had one of their warmest winters on record in the last 30 years. Snowfall departures were also near record low values, but an early October historic snowstorm prevented many records from being broken. Across the great lakes, a multi-year drought continued with snowfall below 50" in many of the common snow belt regions. Cold outbreaks were scarce across much of the country. Looking at comparisons through the current ENSO, Asian snow cover anomalies, and teleconnections, it is evident the setup is radically different for the upcoming winter; there are very few similarities in the overall long waves pattern.

The following data will analyze the makeup for my forecast for the 2012-2013 winter. I define these months by the meteorological winter starting December 1 and lasting until March 1. Therefore my snowfall and temperature forecasts will only be for this exact three month period and will exclude any out of season snowfall (i.e. the 11/7 nor'easter and Hurricane Sandy).

Below I will define a list of common acronyms that will be referenced throughout the forecast:

Teleconnections:
ENSO- El Nino and Southern Oscillation
MEI- Multivariate ENSO Index
ONI- Oceanic Nino Index
SO- Southern Oscillation
MJO- Madden-Julian Oscillation
NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation
PDO- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PNA- Pacific/North American Oscillation
AO- Arctic Oscillation
AMO- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
QBO- Quasibiennial Oscillation
AAM- Atmospheric Angular Momentum

Miscellaneous:
BL- Boundary Layer (surface conditions)
QPF- Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
ULL- Upper Level Low
SST- Sea Surface Temperatures
WWB- Westerly Wind Burst
SSW- Sudden Stratospheric Warming
AV- Alaskan Vortex
PV- Polar Vortex
H5- 500mb height level
H85- 850mb height level
H3- 300mb height level
Miller A- Nor'easter with origins in Gulf of Mexico
Miller B- Nor'easter with origins from secondary development off NC coast
ECMWF- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
GFS- Global Forecasting System
CFS- Coupled Forecast System
SD- Standard Deviation
CONUS- Continental United States

Forecast City Locations (Metar Airport Codes):
KDCA- Washington, DC
KBWI- Baltimore, MD
KPHL- Philadelphia, PA
KMDT- Harrisburg, PA
KNYC- New York City, NY
KBOS- Boston, MA

Differential heating across Earth due to a variable albedo, geographical influences, unequal heating due to the curved surface, and other critical factors make the entire atmospheric column in a chaotic fluid state. But the energy budget utilizing convection, conduction, and latent heat release allow for a balance and a semi-uniform state. Therefore it is critical to note the importance of weather conditions over the entire planet. While the majority of our weather occurs in the thin bottom layer of the atmosphere, troposphere, it is equally important to note conditions aloft in the stratosphere. That area of meteorology is one of particular interest over the past few years with recent research noting warm and cold trends correlating to general long wave patterns over the northern and southern hemispheres. Below I will try to capture a picture of the present atmospheric conditions through a series of indices helpful in long term weather forecasts. Forecasting beyond a month requires a different set of meteorological skills that are unique to day-to-day predictions. Given the high variability of synoptic and mesoscale meteorology, it is impossible to produce an accurate picture of the weather conditions beyond a few days lead time. But using a combination of teleconnections, forecast models, historical analogs, and present rossby long wave patterns, we can try to capture a general education estimation for the forecast ahead. The most important part to take away from all of this are the physical connections interacting with each other on such a large scale; the butterfly effect is highly evident in seasonal forecasting. Remember the atmosphere is one giant fluid.

Before we get started, I would like to quickly define El Nino/La Nina due their importance in seasonal forecasting. An El Nino event is defined as a short term climatic event resulting in a warm phase across the equitorial Pacific. SST deviations are usually above +0.5C; the warm pool of water helps to feed increased rainfall in the eastern Pacific east towards the South American west coast. La Nina conditions are associated with a cold period as SST anomalies drop below -0.5C with warmer waters being displaced farther west. Tropical trade winds are increased as the cold pool intensifies. ENSO conditions often affect long wave patterns across a large portion of the globe and directly impact our weather in North America.


Fig. 1 shows the effects of El Nino/La Nino on surface temperatures.

The SO and MEI indices are responsible for ENSO records since 1882 during warm and cold periods and help to differentiate the two phases.

An important short term climatic index often referenced below will be the NAO. It is an index measuring pressure anomalies across the northern Atlantic Ocean. A -NAO phase is associated with a weak pressure gradient between the subtropical high and Icelandic Low. The Icelandic low is displaced to Newfoundland; the -NAO phase is commonly responsible for blocking patterns and an increase in the strength of the polar jet. A +NAO results in a stronger pressure gradient between the two circulations and results in a strong southwesterly flow over eastern North America.


Fig. 2- General NAO phase correlations to synoptic weather patterns

While the NAO is a shorter term index than other teleconnections, I strongly believe their are direct correlations to 10 year period trends This is supported by long term means over certain decades such as the 1960s ~negative NAO. More recently the NAO has also featured a long term negative trend, but again shorter term variations are common.

In a case study by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini, 18 sites were subdivided to reflect the impact of the NAO on cities with seasonal snowfall averaging less than 20 and greater than 40in. The results indicated the impact of the NAO on seasonal snowfall is greatest along the I-95 corridor including all of the major metropolitan areas. "Since the seasonal snowfall within this region is significantly influenced by the occurrence of moderate to heavy snowfalls, an important relationship between the NAO and the occurrence of significant snowstorms is indicated." Also Kocin and Uccellini uncovered another relationship noting the transition periods from negative NAO to positive NAO characterized by east coast cyclogenesis. For further information on this correlation check out the 1950 Appalachian Storm, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm, 1979 President's Day Storm, 1983 Metropolitan Storm, 1993 Superstorm, and 1996 Blizzard. I highly recommend this case study featured in their "Northeast Snowstorms" Monograph. This periodical is perhaps the most comprehensive collection of research to date on winter storms across the northeastern United States and a must have for the amateur to professional meteorologist.

Winter 2012-2012 Forecast:
Looking across the equitorial Pacific, it is evident rapid changes in SST anomalies have occurred over the last six months. We have seen a gradual transition from a Nina to near Nino cycle change. The latest ONI numbers are in for ASO (August, September, October) at ~0.4. While this still represents neutral conditions, this is dramatically higher than last year at this time. But interestingly enough over the last 6 weeks, SST anomalies have began to decrease in response to an area of cooling a few hundred miles west of Peru. Latest global models are forecasting near neutral conditions during the meteorological winter. These prognostics have changed dramatically from original forecasts of a moderate strength El Nino with anomalies around +1C.


Fig. 3- Current global climate model Nino Region 3.4 Outlook

I am going to differ a bit from the current operational forecast. I have noted an increased in SST's along the central pool of water in Nino 3.4 in response to a recent weak WWB in association with the recent Kelvin wave. This is supported by the latest MEI at around +1SD.


Fig. 4- MEI means over the 1950-present period

Therefore I am expecting weak El Nino to be present throughout the first half of the winter, although its effects will be subtle. In fact looking at long term wavelength patterns as we enter December, it looks more like a Nina synoptic weather pattern over North American than a Nino.

We continue to see an anomalous cold pool over water over the northern Pacific in association with the present -PDO. This will continue throughout the winter, although its forcing may be a bit mediated in reaction to the +ENSO. This will continue to favor the development once again of an AV near the Aleutian Islands. This will focus a deep trough over the west coast of the United States. Its effects are already evident with an impressive middle latitude cyclone delivering blizzard conditions over the inner mountain west. The PDO has been steadily negative over the last 5 or so winters and was highly responsible for the progressive flow during much of the last year.


Fig. 5- NAO time Series post 1950

The NAO has recently entered a short-term negative phase. This is evident by the colder temperature deviations over the last seven days across the CONUS. We also saw two instances of strong east coast cyclogenesis, which is often correlated to -NAO phases given an amplified jet stream under blocking conditions near Greenland. Current GFS ensemble means highlight +3SD H85 temperatures near Greenland over the last seven days.

It appears this is only a short term relief to the general +NAO regime over the last 18 months. Also an extended +AMO regime has been noted across the Atlantic basin over the last twenty years. This will likely continue through winter 2012-2013. Present water temperatures off the east coast range around (+)1C-(+)3C.

The latest QBO data support a negative regime. Direct correlations can often be made between a -AO to -QBO - blocking pattern over North America. I think we will see an eventual breakdown to the persistent -QBO present in the lower stratosphere. Typically mean periods last approximately 30 days. But longer trends can be noted. The AO has also reached a sharp -2SD and has resulted in a transfer of cold air across much of Asia and Europe over the last two weeks. Snow levels have rapidly increased particularly in Asia resulting in the most widespread mean snow cover for the month of October since 2002.


Fig. 6 Departure from Normal Snow Cover for October 2012

This is perhaps the most encouraging chart for the upcoming winter. Direct correlations can be made between east coast troughing and Eurasia snow cover. It eliminates several analog years that featured low snowfall across the Northeast during weak +ENSO/+NAO regimes. It also enhances our chances of seeing a continued -AO regime and therefore reinforced blocking.

After a short recovery for Arctic sea ice, we are once again below the 2007 record low extent during the month of November.

Present monsoonal trends in the Indian Ocean support weak forcing by the MJO. This is consistent with trends over the last few months by GFS ensembles. I do not expect this to be a large factor this winter.

Present stratosphere and ozone data support a possible SSW event occurring by early December. Recent research out of several universities highlight a clear correlation between a stratosphere warm phase and east coast troughing. These SSW events though are short term, highly variable, and difficult to forecast.

While sunspot activity has been on the increase over the last two years with the advent of cycle 24, we have seen relatively quiet activity in sunspots.


Fig. 7 Solar Sunspot Cycle Monograph

Low solar activity has been directly related to periods of colder weather across the northern hemisphere. This science is relatively misunderstood and research periodicals are generally limited. I do believe given the importance of the sun in the energy budget that direct relations are likely. Looking at the latest data from the Space Weather Prediction Center, I am expecting a slightly quiet period of solar activity over the next few months.

A quick look at long range guidance suggests a mild approach to the upcoming winter. The latest ECMWF monthlies and CFS prognostics flood the nation with anomalous warmth at nearly +2SD. It is basically a repeat as far as temperature and precipitation deviations. These operational forecasts are generally low in accuracy, but interesting to look at.

Teleconnections and long term wavelengths remain relatively intermittent and do not highly lean warm or cold for temperature trends over the meteorological winter. But I think one of the more important features to look at is the previous six month's synoptic weather pattern. We are having a hard time breaking down the -ENSO pattern due to the persistent -PDO. I think we will continue to struggle with this throughout the winter. The latest H3 charts off the the global operational ECMWF/GFS are beginning to develop the AV. Whether it remains consistent will remain in question, but this portion of the forecast is critical to the upcoming winter. I am expecting low end Nino conditions, but its effects will have little impact on the general circulation. I am not sold on a -NAO regime over the next few months; in fact the north atlantic has been highly volatile over the past six months. As the -QBO begins to break down, even less support will be there for widespread blocking over the northern Atlantic.

I sort of like the winter of 2006-2007 as a possible analog for the upcoming winter, although possibly a bit warmer for H85 and BL mean temperatures. I expect a return to the amplified southeast ridge that will raise upper level heights up through the Middle Atlantic into possible southern New England. In fact the synoptic pattern may be more similar to a Nina throughout the first half of winter. Nina winters tend to run cold for December; that is important to note.

Long term trends support a lower frequency in Miller A development with a weak, progressive subtropical jet so large KU storms are not expected. Most QPF may occur in association with S/W overrunning events with possible late redevelopment off the New England coast. These events often produce a myriad of precipitation types depending on the anticyclonic conditions to the north.

In correspondance with a weak subtropical jet and generally progressive wavelength pattern, I expect precipitation to average near normal to below normal. The highest threat for below normal precipitation will stretch up through the Ohio Valley into western New England. This remains consistent with the subtle long term drought over this region.

Temperatures will be highly variable throughout the winter. It is evident by the position of cold air pools and PV relations that cold air will be more readily available on this side of the globe (unlike last winter). Therefore continental polar and arctic outbreaks can be expected, but their frequency and length will at times be limited. There will be periods of abnormal warmth under a screaming southwesterly flow during periods when the -NAO relaxes. The threat for mixed precipitation including freezing rain will be amplified this winter due to the abundance of cold air to the north strengthened by CAD (cold air damming) east of the Appalachians as overrunning systems approach from the southwest. Many shortwave and middle latitude cyclones will be fueled by a tight thermal gradient over the middle of the nation. Overrunning, frontogenically-forced precipitation events can quickly produce a quick 6-10in of snow in the cold sector, so they can have widespread impacts despite not being a MECS (major east coast snowstorm).

Overall meteorological mean temperatures will lean above normal for most all climatological reporting stations.

Winter 2012-2013 Selected City Conditions:
KDCA- (+3.5F) (75-90% of normal snowfall)
KBWI- (+3.2F) (80-100% of normal snowfall)
KPHL- (+3.0F) (80-100% of normal snowfall)
KMDT- (+3.0F) (90-105% of normal snowfall)
KUNV- (+2.5F) (100-110% of normal snowfall)
KNYC- (+2.5F) (100-110% of normal snowfall)
KBOS- (+1.8F) (110-125% of normal snowfall)

The bottom line for the upcoming winter support a higher frequency of warm spells in comparison to Arctic Outbreaks. I expect several extended periods of abnormal warmth, particularly during the second half of the winter. Snowfall estimates may be near normal to slightly above normal, but that is strongly based on the fact that the NAO may allow for several periods of blocking. If these -NAO periods do not pan out, I would expect a well below normal snowfall season. Snowfall has the highest chance for above normal deviations north of the I-80 corridor especially across southern New England where they normally do well during S/W flow events. I would expect possibly one larger MECS, but this remains dependent on the state of the NAO. Most snow will occur from other shortwave sources.

As usual, seasonal forecasts often feature lower than normal confidence and accuracy. The forecasts above are highly contingent on the state of the NAO given the general benign forcing from the other factors this year. No additional snow is expected over the next two weeks across the Northeast. Signals for any storminess around Thanksgiving remain pretty weak, so I am not convinced by any long range guidance at this point. I have heard rumbles from energy meteorologists favoring the first week in December for a possible winter storm, but this period is beyond what I can forecast. As in correspondance with my last four winter outlooks, I will post a verification blog during the beginning to middle of March.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012: Link
Winter Forecast 2010-2011: Link
Winter Forecast 2009-2010: Link
Winter Forecast 2008-2009: Link

***All images above can be found at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Space Weather Prediction Center, Rutgers Snow Lab, and Allan Huffman's Raleighwx Maps.

Kocin, P. J. and L. W. Uccellini, 2004: A Snowfall Impact Scale Derived From Northeast Storm Snowfall Distributions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 177-194

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 0.0in
Seasonal Total- 0.8"
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 36.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.5F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning Event

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Quoting NumberWise:
Pcroton? I was looking for another update from you! I hope your area, including transportation issues, is coming along.


Things are going well. Most every road open and most everyone returned to power.

Mostly it's about the collection of tree debris and such. For others about the collection of the gutted house's possessions.

Things are generally returning to normal now.

Services wise everything has finally come around and balanced out... gas, groceries, etc - all normal operations.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5125
Yea the storm should just rocket out to sea. The two jet streams are unlikely to phase. Should go right through Cape Hatteras and head ENE. Fringe effects for us I would think...and more just keeping the cold flow intact for us.




I had a yellow lab who lept off a deck and tore her knee ligaments as a 1 year old. Same thing, surgery, huge cast. The recovery wasn't long though a couple of weeks.

The dog was shy about jumping from there on out but she was just fine and active the rest of her life. Ran full speed all the time, etc. And this was back in the early 1980s and as we know surgery has come a long way in 30 years.

Doggie will be fine.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5125
GM,all,really looks like our coastal storm is trending more and more east.Still plenty of time of changes.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15071
Philly, thanks for the note, we may have to postpone the surgery till after New Years. My wife's a teacher and I will be doing some Xmas retail work, so we won't be home most of the day. I don't think that's fair for him. He's getting along quite well now, not in pain nor is he limping. We are going to restrict his movement for several weeks while we are out of the house. See this web. site, www.tiggerpoz.com. Don't know how true it is, but since we have to wait, we'll try what he suggests. Thank you again.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7063
Quoting originalLT:
Found out one of my dogs has a torn ACL in his left knee(figures, he's the athletic one of the two!) He will have an operation on the Friday right after Thanksgiving--a cast for 2 weeks, then we'll have to be careful with him for a month after that. It's going to be difficult, him being an animal and not knowing whats going on.

LT - Our dog tore her ACL several years ago and had the operation. She recovered well. Most days she's just fine now; every now and then she favors that leg. Our vets wanted her to lose 10 lbs. and it actually seems to make a big difference. I agree that it's difficult with them not understanding what's happening. Our dog seemed to take it in stride, although she kept wanting to tear at her cast. We made sure to give her lots of love and spend a lot of time with her while she was recuperating. Good luck!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
The naming thing is extremely pointless. The TWC is pretending like they knew it all along with the near-blizzard we just had here in central NJ - but the forecasts only showed modest snow totals further west with rain for us. It would have been a bust of a storm. But since it took everyone by surprise they are beating their chests over it. If it followed forecasts it would have been a total bust and they would have looked absolutely foolish for naming it.

What's worse is it should have at least been the second named storm if they're going to do this correctly. Bruce or whatever...as Athena already hit the upper mid-west weeks ago.

Then you have Bruce over Montana and that was just a run of the mill disturbance for them.

There are two purposes to doing this.

1) LOOK AT US WE NAMED THE STORM
2) "Climate Scientists" can use this as a way to compare seasons and say "Most named winter storms since ____" and crow about their ridiculous theories.


Either way, it's a big joke, and I refuse to acknowledge it other than to rant about it.

Anyone who takes the naming thing seriously needs to step away from the computer and breath some oxygen so they can come to their senses.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5125
Tinton Falls, NJ
Heavy Frost, 33F


Seems next week we will watch a low explode off the NC coastline and head out to sea. Will probably be a very impressive cloud signature one you look at and say it's a good thing it's not landfalling anywhere.

It will generally serve to reinforce the cool air and may bring some breezy rainy conditions to the coastlines early next week. Although if it wraps up as strongly as some models are showing it may take the rain right out of the forecast.

All in all it seems like a safe Thanksgiving Week for travel.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5125
I can't... I can't even fathom the thought process that went into crafting that roster of names. A few years ago I would have placed my thoughts into a blog on this site describing how I feel about this, but since TWC now owns Wunderground, I'd be banned forever.

I'll just say this; Nothing scares me more than the thought of "Winter Storm Euclid". Except, it's probably the silliest name ever. When will the east coast be brought down by the winter storms of "Wynken", "Blynken", and "Nod"? You tell me when that goes down, and I'll start stocking up on french toast gear...
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
Link

Is this a joke? I can't believe someone actually made a Wikipedia page on the storms that TWC names. Certainly they can reference the storm names and the surrounding controversy in the article of the storm, but this is getting out of hand. I feel like they used to have such nicely organized and well presented 'impartial' meteorology-related articles. The pages on individual Atlantic hurricane seasons were particularly nicely written and enjoyable reads.

Yet nowadays, it seems like they've fallen prey to this media frenzy recently. Wordiness, lack of credibility, and hype have all become commonplace there. I realize anyone can edit that site and that's an ongoing problem but it seems like there's been a drastic change in writers from the eloquent writing we see on Blizz's blog to the people you see on Masters' blog.

This bothers me. I really don't like the direction that the meteorology field is headed. So much so that it almost discourages me from wanting to pursue the field. It won't stop me just yet, but I'm really hoping science can make a comeback, and darn soon. Gonna try and ignore the names anyway.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3318
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
A very nice day today. It was in the 50's, sweatshirt weather.

Blizz - is that long range map dated 11/29? Also, the rain event for next week....what day or days are the models predicting? Do you foresee and rain for Thanksgiving along the east coast?

Yep, looks like the end of the month towards early December will feature some colder weather. Models have been recently trending offshore with the coastal storm next week. It is a little far out and there are not any strong signals yet either way, so I am not quite sure yet.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Pcroton? I was looking for another update from you! I hope your area, including transportation issues, is coming along.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A very nice day today. It was in the 50's, sweatshirt weather.

Blizz - is that long range map dated 11/29? Also, the rain event for next week....what day or days are the models predicting? Do you foresee and rain for Thanksgiving along the east coast?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Long range GFS already starting the fantasy cold outbreaks...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting h2oskt:
I am starting to look towards next week. Although I am hitting the road this Thursday night to go to my in-laws down in MS and LA (NOLA), I am keeping any eye on the NE weather for Thanksgiving. Any thoughts on a storm effecting the East Coast in a week? The Albany NWS forecasts a slight chance next week while Taunton, MA is a little more dramatic. I tend to differ to Albany and have more confidence in their analysis.

There are few signs of a cut-off low or east coast low pressure forming in our general vicinity. It appears like the air mass will be pretty warm, or at least warm enough to prevent wintry precipitation for most areas. I would say odds are definitely increasing though for some sort of rain event in that time frame.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
I am starting to look towards next week. Although I am hitting the road this Thursday night to go to my in-laws down in MS and LA (NOLA), I am keeping any eye on the NE weather for Thanksgiving. Any thoughts on a storm effecting the East Coast in a week? The Albany NWS forecasts a slight chance next week while Taunton, MA is a little more dramatic. I tend to differ to Albany and have more confidence in their analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for that educational summary Blizz! great read! Looks like maybe Southern New England could get some snow then huh, if things pan out just right. Ok....just no snow in Mid Dec or late Dec when I need to fly out of Logan airport to England! Other than that, bring it on! :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That front brought one hell of a wind-driven rain event last night up here. Swirling winds drove the rain in all directions and we had a lot of minor debris on roadways, trash cans and the like. Little more than what I had anticipated.
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
originalLT-good luck. I would guess it will be hard to keep him from doing too much and the liklihoood of him reinjuring his knee are good?

It rained hard here for a bit this morning. Very breezy conditions ahead of the front. 0.85" of rain
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Whats this now about a possible nor'easter next week?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The rain just started here!

Temp has dropped to 45F too.

Must be the same storm. ;-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Quoting originalLT:
Still waiting for the winds here, in Stamford CT. Just was outside with my boys(my dogs!) It's still about 60F here, no wind. Found out one of my dogs has a torn ACL in his left knee(figures, he's the athletic one of the two!) He will have an operation on the Friday right after Thanksgiving--a cast for 2 weeks, then we'll have to be careful with him for a month after that. It's going to be difficult, him being an animal and not knowing whats going on.


Ohhh, that *is* hard! Especially since he's the type that wants to run and play. Here's hoping he doesn't chew his cast. Be gentle with yourselves. Pets do know when you're trying to help them. Perhaps he'll take your cues. All good luck!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Still waiting for the winds here, in Stamford CT. Just was outside with my boys(my dogs!) It's still about 60F here, no wind. Found out one of my dogs has a torn ACL in his left knee(figures, he's the athletic one of the two!) He will have an operation on the Friday right after Thanksgiving--a cast for 2 weeks, then we'll have to be careful with him for a month after that. It's going to be difficult, him being an animal and not knowing whats going on.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7063
Quoting Blizzard92:
Temperature drop of 20F so far after the front's passing after a high of 65F.


Wow! The winds here have really picked up in the last 15 minutes, about an hour or two ahead of the rain. Did anyone else experience that?

I'd say we had winds of 15-20 today with gusts 25-30. But now it's howling along at 20-25 with sustained gusts to 40-50!


Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Temperature drop of 20F so far after the front's passing after a high of 65F.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting Blizzard92:
Thanks everyone!

I hope you all enjoyed the last few days of warmth as the cold front is currently baring down on our region. It is quite windy up here in the Finger Lakes today with frequent gusts upwards of 40mph. Actually stronger winds today with no advisory than the winds we had with Sandy under a high wind warning.


Same sort of gusts here today, Blizz. The comparison with Sandy would fit here too.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Quoting Alee6k:


Delaware (river & bay) to our west, Hudson (river & bay) and the Atlantic to our east.
Yup, only 50 or so miles of solid land separate north NJ from NY... it was enough of an issue in the early colonial times... that the King had to settle the dispute... then of course later, a plethora of legal battles as to that strip and to where the river boundaries would be. Fun stuff!

Back in the day... late 1800s till about 1910 or 1920... New Jersey's physical landscape might have been radically changed by corporate entities! There was once a proposal to create an inland SEA LEVEL canal from South Amboy to Burlington! The proposal never came to fruition.



Very cool! I wonder how that might have changed Vermont's history!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
The cold front that just swept through State College was more dramatic than anything Sandy could throw at us. We had sustained winds over 35mph and gusts to near 50mph. The winds weren't focused at the squall line like they may appear to be on radar...they were spread out over an hour both in front of and behind the line. The temperature also dropped substantially from 63F at 8:30 to 47F at 9:30 (-16F/hour).

Wundermap is a great tool to track this cold front by using the radar and weather station options.
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This warm weather does nothing for me -- November should feel like November. Come on, cold front!!!
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
Thanks everyone!

I hope you all enjoyed the last few days of warmth as the cold front is currently baring down on our region. It is quite windy up here in the Finger Lakes today with frequent gusts upwards of 40mph. Actually stronger winds today with no advisory than the winds we had with Sandy under a high wind warning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
As of 1 PM a new record high temperature of 70 degrees was set at
Burlington VT today. This breaks the old record of 66 set in 1982.

As of 1 PM a new record high temperature of 69 degrees was set at
Montpelier VT today. This breaks the old record of 62 set in 1982,
1974 and 1970.

As of 1 PM a new record high temperature of 75 degrees was set at
Massena NY today. This breaks the old record of 70 set in 1982.

It's still 65F here!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Quoting testbenchdude:


I can maybe answer that. Barrier islands on the east coast aren't static; they move steadily landward over thousands of years. There a number of factors that determine if and where a barrier island forms, especially right there in NJ. Sediment load, longshore drift, subsidance and uplift all contribute. That specific are of NJ has actually been subsiding since the last ice age. It was just south of the massive ice sheets (you can see where the sheets ended--Long Island is actually a glacial morraine and marks the southern edge). All that weight just north made the land just south bulge upward, and now it's slowly sinking. Coupled with sea level rise, it might explain the lack of barrier island.



Well written! We are used to the sand flats around the Outer Banks getting shifted by storms. We just haven't seen a change of this magnitude along the NJ coast.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Aleek6, you got me!, technically it is, although seldom is NJ referred to as such. Would be a good question on a quiz show!


Delaware (river & bay) to our west, Hudson (river & bay) and the Atlantic to our east.
Yup, only 50 or so miles of solid land separate north NJ from NY... it was enough of an issue in the early colonial times... that the King had to settle the dispute... then of course later, a plethora of legal battles as to that strip and to where the river boundaries would be. Fun stuff!

Back in the day... late 1800s till about 1910 or 1920... New Jersey's physical landscape might have been radically changed by corporate entities! There was once a proposal to create an inland SEA LEVEL canal from South Amboy to Burlington! The proposal never came to fruition.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pcroton:
Our barrier islands are more like sand bars not too far off the main land. They're generally over-populated and kept in place by dikes and bulkheads and jetties.

They want to go through a natural progression but are not allowed to.

Sandy Hook, Sea Bright, Long Beach Island, Atlantic City are all really big sand bars, some long penninsulas technically I would guess.

Just look up close at NJ's coastline in google earth. There are barrier islands so to speak.



Although it's largely semantical, they are not true peninsulas. What's interesting is just how little we are able to halt their progression--and how much we still refuse to acknowledge this.
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Hi Aleek6, you got me!, technically it is, although seldom is NJ referred to as such. Would be a good question on a quiz show!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7063
Wow - I wasn't on the blog for a couple of days and there's a winter forecast and loads of discussion! Thanks for the analysis, Zach. Like many, I don't understand most of it. The acronyms help, as does your summary of what to expect. I'm hoping you can use reports like this in some of your classes.

P - I'm glad to hear things are settling down and that you've a way to earn some money from home. Takes the pressure off a bit.

I'm loving the spring-like weather, and I'm also eager to get into snow season.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
Our barrier islands are more like sand bars not too far off the main land. They're generally over-populated and kept in place by dikes and bulkheads and jetties.

They want to go through a natural progression but are not allowed to.

Sandy Hook, Sea Bright, Long Beach Island, Atlantic City are all really big sand bars, some long penninsulas technically I would guess.

Just look up close at NJ's coastline in google earth. There are barrier islands so to speak.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5125
Im still a little stunned at how this country still is overwhelmed when there is a huge natural disaster such as just occurred.I thought we had learned our lesson from Katrina,but we still seem to be incapable of organizing massive disaster relief to people,when it involves a large area.I mean there are great stories coming out of this with huge amount of help,but there are still a huge number of people that have yet to be contacted or have seen any relief help.And if these huge storms are a sign our what is to come with climate change,we are in big trouble.
Anyway looks like another nor'easter to keep an eye on for early next week.Not much agreement among models.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15071
Quoting originalLT:
Alee6k, it's not a peninsula in the traditional sense, like Florida is.


Technically it is. :)
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Alee6k, it's not a peninsula in the traditional sense, like Florida is.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7063
I am not a geologist... but we must also remember NJ is a peninsula.
Here is a vintage map showing the basic geology of the state... many of the place names (and county names) have changed... but it gives you a general idea. (link is to Rutger's "map" dept.)
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Morning all- just read an article on the WSJ on how sea ice expansion in the Antarctic region has been actually increasing over the last 20 years or so as the Arctic ice coverage has been shrinking. A lot of Antarctic sea ice coverage is actually determined by wind, they say. How this all fits into the whole global warming discussion is just another giant, "Who knows?" but it is interesting all the same. I can't send the WSJ article so here is one from Newsweek. Link

Blizz- not sure if you have to start putting that stuff into your equations too, or if that coverage impacts ENSO regimes, etc etc etc.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Honestly horrifying to picture. It's very difficult to imagine such a storm surge in New Jersey. I suppose that would explain why Perth Amboy lost its pier.

I have a question P. Do you know why Monmouth County doesn't have barrier islands? I guess you could obviously just point to the area's geological history and say that barrier islands never formed but I always found it odd. The rest of the Jersey Shore is mainland and island yet in Monmouth County suburbia just meets the ocean at land's end.

Heading up the Turnpike today to the Meadowlands for a band competition. Maybe I'll see some evidence of storm damage.


I can maybe answer that. Barrier islands on the east coast aren't static; they move steadily landward over thousands of years. There a number of factors that determine if and where a barrier island forms, especially right there in NJ. Sediment load, longshore drift, subsidance and uplift all contribute. That specific are of NJ has actually been subsiding since the last ice age. It was just south of the massive ice sheets (you can see where the sheets ended--Long Island is actually a glacial morraine and marks the southern edge). All that weight just north made the land just south bulge upward, and now it's slowly sinking. Coupled with sea level rise, it might explain the lack of barrier island.

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Went to the beach today to check things out. Selected one of the higher elevation areas as I knew there would be no trouble getting there. Low lying areas are off limits or extremely difficult to navigate. Plenty of time to get to those areas one day.

Here's some pictures. Those aren't plowed snow berms, they are plowed sand berms. The pile of rocks out in the ocean to the right of the sun used to be right where the shoreline was. Those mountains are of bulldozed debris.

There are endless pictures to be had. Just numerous gigantic trees down and snapped power poles, damage to homes, piles of debris put on curbs...and I wasn't anywhere near the decimated areas.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5125
Quoting Blizzard92:
Thanks everyone!!!


Northern New England has a substantially colder climate than the rest of the northeast. So even during periods of warmer weather, they can still receive a good deal of snowfall. I am expecting this winter to be warmer, but produce a fare amount of snow especially over northern New England. I think this is a relatively encouraging sign for ski resorts after such an awful winter last year.


Whooo hoooo!!!!

Streamtracker, I'm in Jericho, VT just a bit west of Bolton. About where in Central VT are you? My son got married in Waitsfield last year just two weekends before Irene hit. How did you fare?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Thanks for this comprehensive post, Blizz. I don't pretend to understand it all yet, but will refer to it as these systems develop over the next months. A great service.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks everyone!!!

Quoting streamtracker:
Thanks for the great post!

You say 2006-2007 may be a good analog for this winter. That winter saw above average snow fall for the mountains of central VT.

Any thoughts on the winter forecast for the mountains of VT. and NH?

Northern New England has a substantially colder climate than the rest of the northeast. So even during periods of warmer weather, they can still receive a good deal of snowfall. I am expecting this winter to be warmer, but produce a fare amount of snow especially over northern New England. I think this is a relatively encouraging sign for ski resorts after such an awful winter last year.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting Pcroton:
Good Morning. Pea Soup and 39F here in Tinton Falls at 6am (It has now lifted some and warmed some).


Those who stayed behind in the storm and died never had a chance.

One neighbor of mine is some form of a federal officer and he was put up north to aide in getting people out. He said he was down a dead end street that ends at Raritan Bay. He said in an instant he saw waves coming up the street, started backing up, kept realizing he had to accelerate faster and faster. he said at one point it was simply a solid wall of water about five feet high that just rolled right up the street all at once and then further down the wall was a second one even higher.

He said he barely got out of there and gunned it up a hill nearby and when he looked down he explained it like it was a tsunami that had just come in and then the water was just swirling around and sloshing around against the hillsides like we see in the tsunami footage in fishing ports - with cars and boats and chunks of houses crashing and swirling around in it. He feels like he might have been killed if he wasn't alert, maybe had gotten out of the car to check on a house, etc.


Honestly horrifying to picture. It's very difficult to imagine such a storm surge in New Jersey. I suppose that would explain why Perth Amboy lost its pier.

I have a question P. Do you know why Monmouth County doesn't have barrier islands? I guess you could obviously just point to the area's geological history and say that barrier islands never formed but I always found it odd. The rest of the Jersey Shore is mainland and island yet in Monmouth County suburbia just meets the ocean at land's end.

Heading up the Turnpike today to the Meadowlands for a band competition. Maybe I'll see some evidence of storm damage.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3318
Thanks for the great post!

You say 2006-2007 may be a good analog for this winter. That winter saw above average snow fall for the mountains of central VT.

Any thoughts on the winter forecast for the mountains of VT. and NH?
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Blizz, Great Job and very informative, the flow is great and is an easy read.

Listener, I am with you, yard work and lights today for sure, with rumor of tough weather Thanksgiving week and after, I am not taking any chances.

To all, enjoy the day!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
It's gorgeous here and we have two days off to enjoy it!! We're going to get the yard work completed, get lights onto the outdoor Christmas tree, and put away the hose for Winter. We're also going for a walk and to hear a concert. Sweet!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401
Did everyone see this welcome article about the hero weatherman from Mount Holly NJ, Gary Szatkowski? It shows the power of an accurate forecast, and a well placed personal plea:
http://mobile.nj.com/advnj/pm_31080/contentdetail .htm?contentguid=ldBw4HY8
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5401

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
56 °F
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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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