Northeast Winter Forecast 2012-2013

By: Zachary Labe , 5:28 AM GMT on November 09, 2012

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Zachary Labe
08 November 2012
Winter Forecast 2012-2013

Many areas are beginning to clean up after another impressive coastal storm moved up the eastern seaboard with high winds, snow, and heavy rain. Heavy snow accumulations occurred in many areas from Delaware up through Maine breaking 100 year snowfall records in some locations for the month of November. Maximum snow accumulations reached as high as 13.0" in Freehold, New Jersey, but even parts of the New York City metro region saw as much as 7.0" of snow. A narrow baroclinic zone off the coast of New Jersey allowed for a period of rapid cyclogenesis as the low pressure became vertically stacked. Precipitation began to spread inland beginning as a mix of light rain/snow/sleet for much of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. As the surface low began to deepen sub 996mb, frontogenic forcing allowed for several mesoscale bands to form from central New Jersey up through New York City and into southcentral Connecticut.

Snow rates exceeded 1in/hr. Temperatures began to drop hovering around 32-34F courtesy of the impressive dynamic cooling responsible from the banding structures. Snow ratios remained low and in some places 4.0" of snow melted down to 0.70in of QPF. The 12 hour radar loop from last night shows the near steady position of the intense band for almost 6 hours. By later in the night, the surface low began to decouple halting further strengthening. The precipitation shield began to become a bit more disorganized and dBz returns began to wane. Once rates decreased, boundary layer temperatures began to rebound into the mid to upper 30s along the I-95 corridor and the snow began to melt from the both the bottom and top layers. Widespread tree damage has been reported throughout much of New Jersey into southern Connecticut especially given the weakened foliage post Hurricane Sandy. Fortunately, it appears a quieter weather pattern is headed our direction over the next two to three weeks. Computer models verification charts show relatively fare scores for this nor'easter with the NAM likely the most accurate in the 24 hour forecast lead time. It was able to pick up on the eastern jog and tight precipitation gradient; this is likely due to the NAM's higher resolution and hydrostatic capabilities.

Winter 2011-2012 was characterized by a moderate La Nina. The Oceanic Nino Index numbers for December through February averaged around -0.9. A strong, dominant southeast ridge flooded much of the east with warmer air preventing the classic Miller A and B nor'easters. The Climate Prediction Center's mean NAO for the winter of 2011-2012 averages out to around a peak of +2. An unfavorable Pacific and stationary Alaskan Vortex also prevented colder air from penetrating south into the contiguous United States. Much of the nation had one of their warmest winters on record in the last 30 years. Snowfall departures were also near record low values, but an early October historic snowstorm prevented many records from being broken. Across the great lakes, a multi-year drought continued with snowfall below 50" in many of the common snow belt regions. Cold outbreaks were scarce across much of the country. Looking at comparisons through the current ENSO, Asian snow cover anomalies, and teleconnections, it is evident the setup is radically different for the upcoming winter; there are very few similarities in the overall long waves pattern.

The following data will analyze the makeup for my forecast for the 2012-2013 winter. I define these months by the meteorological winter starting December 1 and lasting until March 1. Therefore my snowfall and temperature forecasts will only be for this exact three month period and will exclude any out of season snowfall (i.e. the 11/7 nor'easter and Hurricane Sandy).

Below I will define a list of common acronyms that will be referenced throughout the forecast:

Teleconnections:
ENSO- El Nino and Southern Oscillation
MEI- Multivariate ENSO Index
ONI- Oceanic Nino Index
SO- Southern Oscillation
MJO- Madden-Julian Oscillation
NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation
PDO- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PNA- Pacific/North American Oscillation
AO- Arctic Oscillation
AMO- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
QBO- Quasibiennial Oscillation
AAM- Atmospheric Angular Momentum

Miscellaneous:
BL- Boundary Layer (surface conditions)
QPF- Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
ULL- Upper Level Low
SST- Sea Surface Temperatures
WWB- Westerly Wind Burst
SSW- Sudden Stratospheric Warming
AV- Alaskan Vortex
PV- Polar Vortex
H5- 500mb height level
H85- 850mb height level
H3- 300mb height level
Miller A- Nor'easter with origins in Gulf of Mexico
Miller B- Nor'easter with origins from secondary development off NC coast
ECMWF- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
GFS- Global Forecasting System
CFS- Coupled Forecast System
SD- Standard Deviation
CONUS- Continental United States

Forecast City Locations (Metar Airport Codes):
KDCA- Washington, DC
KBWI- Baltimore, MD
KPHL- Philadelphia, PA
KMDT- Harrisburg, PA
KNYC- New York City, NY
KBOS- Boston, MA

Differential heating across Earth due to a variable albedo, geographical influences, unequal heating due to the curved surface, and other critical factors make the entire atmospheric column in a chaotic fluid state. But the energy budget utilizing convection, conduction, and latent heat release allow for a balance and a semi-uniform state. Therefore it is critical to note the importance of weather conditions over the entire planet. While the majority of our weather occurs in the thin bottom layer of the atmosphere, troposphere, it is equally important to note conditions aloft in the stratosphere. That area of meteorology is one of particular interest over the past few years with recent research noting warm and cold trends correlating to general long wave patterns over the northern and southern hemispheres. Below I will try to capture a picture of the present atmospheric conditions through a series of indices helpful in long term weather forecasts. Forecasting beyond a month requires a different set of meteorological skills that are unique to day-to-day predictions. Given the high variability of synoptic and mesoscale meteorology, it is impossible to produce an accurate picture of the weather conditions beyond a few days lead time. But using a combination of teleconnections, forecast models, historical analogs, and present rossby long wave patterns, we can try to capture a general education estimation for the forecast ahead. The most important part to take away from all of this are the physical connections interacting with each other on such a large scale; the butterfly effect is highly evident in seasonal forecasting. Remember the atmosphere is one giant fluid.

Before we get started, I would like to quickly define El Nino/La Nina due their importance in seasonal forecasting. An El Nino event is defined as a short term climatic event resulting in a warm phase across the equitorial Pacific. SST deviations are usually above +0.5C; the warm pool of water helps to feed increased rainfall in the eastern Pacific east towards the South American west coast. La Nina conditions are associated with a cold period as SST anomalies drop below -0.5C with warmer waters being displaced farther west. Tropical trade winds are increased as the cold pool intensifies. ENSO conditions often affect long wave patterns across a large portion of the globe and directly impact our weather in North America.


Fig. 1 shows the effects of El Nino/La Nino on surface temperatures.

The SO and MEI indices are responsible for ENSO records since 1882 during warm and cold periods and help to differentiate the two phases.

An important short term climatic index often referenced below will be the NAO. It is an index measuring pressure anomalies across the northern Atlantic Ocean. A -NAO phase is associated with a weak pressure gradient between the subtropical high and Icelandic Low. The Icelandic low is displaced to Newfoundland; the -NAO phase is commonly responsible for blocking patterns and an increase in the strength of the polar jet. A +NAO results in a stronger pressure gradient between the two circulations and results in a strong southwesterly flow over eastern North America.


Fig. 2- General NAO phase correlations to synoptic weather patterns

While the NAO is a shorter term index than other teleconnections, I strongly believe their are direct correlations to 10 year period trends This is supported by long term means over certain decades such as the 1960s ~negative NAO. More recently the NAO has also featured a long term negative trend, but again shorter term variations are common.

In a case study by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini, 18 sites were subdivided to reflect the impact of the NAO on cities with seasonal snowfall averaging less than 20 and greater than 40in. The results indicated the impact of the NAO on seasonal snowfall is greatest along the I-95 corridor including all of the major metropolitan areas. "Since the seasonal snowfall within this region is significantly influenced by the occurrence of moderate to heavy snowfalls, an important relationship between the NAO and the occurrence of significant snowstorms is indicated." Also Kocin and Uccellini uncovered another relationship noting the transition periods from negative NAO to positive NAO characterized by east coast cyclogenesis. For further information on this correlation check out the 1950 Appalachian Storm, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm, 1979 President's Day Storm, 1983 Metropolitan Storm, 1993 Superstorm, and 1996 Blizzard. I highly recommend this case study featured in their "Northeast Snowstorms" Monograph. This periodical is perhaps the most comprehensive collection of research to date on winter storms across the northeastern United States and a must have for the amateur to professional meteorologist.

Winter 2012-2012 Forecast:
Looking across the equitorial Pacific, it is evident rapid changes in SST anomalies have occurred over the last six months. We have seen a gradual transition from a Nina to near Nino cycle change. The latest ONI numbers are in for ASO (August, September, October) at ~0.4. While this still represents neutral conditions, this is dramatically higher than last year at this time. But interestingly enough over the last 6 weeks, SST anomalies have began to decrease in response to an area of cooling a few hundred miles west of Peru. Latest global models are forecasting near neutral conditions during the meteorological winter. These prognostics have changed dramatically from original forecasts of a moderate strength El Nino with anomalies around +1C.


Fig. 3- Current global climate model Nino Region 3.4 Outlook

I am going to differ a bit from the current operational forecast. I have noted an increased in SST's along the central pool of water in Nino 3.4 in response to a recent weak WWB in association with the recent Kelvin wave. This is supported by the latest MEI at around +1SD.


Fig. 4- MEI means over the 1950-present period

Therefore I am expecting weak El Nino to be present throughout the first half of the winter, although its effects will be subtle. In fact looking at long term wavelength patterns as we enter December, it looks more like a Nina synoptic weather pattern over North American than a Nino.

We continue to see an anomalous cold pool over water over the northern Pacific in association with the present -PDO. This will continue throughout the winter, although its forcing may be a bit mediated in reaction to the +ENSO. This will continue to favor the development once again of an AV near the Aleutian Islands. This will focus a deep trough over the west coast of the United States. Its effects are already evident with an impressive middle latitude cyclone delivering blizzard conditions over the inner mountain west. The PDO has been steadily negative over the last 5 or so winters and was highly responsible for the progressive flow during much of the last year.


Fig. 5- NAO time Series post 1950

The NAO has recently entered a short-term negative phase. This is evident by the colder temperature deviations over the last seven days across the CONUS. We also saw two instances of strong east coast cyclogenesis, which is often correlated to -NAO phases given an amplified jet stream under blocking conditions near Greenland. Current GFS ensemble means highlight +3SD H85 temperatures near Greenland over the last seven days.

It appears this is only a short term relief to the general +NAO regime over the last 18 months. Also an extended +AMO regime has been noted across the Atlantic basin over the last twenty years. This will likely continue through winter 2012-2013. Present water temperatures off the east coast range around (+)1C-(+)3C.

The latest QBO data support a negative regime. Direct correlations can often be made between a -AO to -QBO - blocking pattern over North America. I think we will see an eventual breakdown to the persistent -QBO present in the lower stratosphere. Typically mean periods last approximately 30 days. But longer trends can be noted. The AO has also reached a sharp -2SD and has resulted in a transfer of cold air across much of Asia and Europe over the last two weeks. Snow levels have rapidly increased particularly in Asia resulting in the most widespread mean snow cover for the month of October since 2002.


Fig. 6 Departure from Normal Snow Cover for October 2012

This is perhaps the most encouraging chart for the upcoming winter. Direct correlations can be made between east coast troughing and Eurasia snow cover. It eliminates several analog years that featured low snowfall across the Northeast during weak +ENSO/+NAO regimes. It also enhances our chances of seeing a continued -AO regime and therefore reinforced blocking.

After a short recovery for Arctic sea ice, we are once again below the 2007 record low extent during the month of November.

Present monsoonal trends in the Indian Ocean support weak forcing by the MJO. This is consistent with trends over the last few months by GFS ensembles. I do not expect this to be a large factor this winter.

Present stratosphere and ozone data support a possible SSW event occurring by early December. Recent research out of several universities highlight a clear correlation between a stratosphere warm phase and east coast troughing. These SSW events though are short term, highly variable, and difficult to forecast.

While sunspot activity has been on the increase over the last two years with the advent of cycle 24, we have seen relatively quiet activity in sunspots.


Fig. 7 Solar Sunspot Cycle Monograph

Low solar activity has been directly related to periods of colder weather across the northern hemisphere. This science is relatively misunderstood and research periodicals are generally limited. I do believe given the importance of the sun in the energy budget that direct relations are likely. Looking at the latest data from the Space Weather Prediction Center, I am expecting a slightly quiet period of solar activity over the next few months.

A quick look at long range guidance suggests a mild approach to the upcoming winter. The latest ECMWF monthlies and CFS prognostics flood the nation with anomalous warmth at nearly +2SD. It is basically a repeat as far as temperature and precipitation deviations. These operational forecasts are generally low in accuracy, but interesting to look at.

Teleconnections and long term wavelengths remain relatively intermittent and do not highly lean warm or cold for temperature trends over the meteorological winter. But I think one of the more important features to look at is the previous six month's synoptic weather pattern. We are having a hard time breaking down the -ENSO pattern due to the persistent -PDO. I think we will continue to struggle with this throughout the winter. The latest H3 charts off the the global operational ECMWF/GFS are beginning to develop the AV. Whether it remains consistent will remain in question, but this portion of the forecast is critical to the upcoming winter. I am expecting low end Nino conditions, but its effects will have little impact on the general circulation. I am not sold on a -NAO regime over the next few months; in fact the north atlantic has been highly volatile over the past six months. As the -QBO begins to break down, even less support will be there for widespread blocking over the northern Atlantic.

I sort of like the winter of 2006-2007 as a possible analog for the upcoming winter, although possibly a bit warmer for H85 and BL mean temperatures. I expect a return to the amplified southeast ridge that will raise upper level heights up through the Middle Atlantic into possible southern New England. In fact the synoptic pattern may be more similar to a Nina throughout the first half of winter. Nina winters tend to run cold for December; that is important to note.

Long term trends support a lower frequency in Miller A development with a weak, progressive subtropical jet so large KU storms are not expected. Most QPF may occur in association with S/W overrunning events with possible late redevelopment off the New England coast. These events often produce a myriad of precipitation types depending on the anticyclonic conditions to the north.

In correspondance with a weak subtropical jet and generally progressive wavelength pattern, I expect precipitation to average near normal to below normal. The highest threat for below normal precipitation will stretch up through the Ohio Valley into western New England. This remains consistent with the subtle long term drought over this region.

Temperatures will be highly variable throughout the winter. It is evident by the position of cold air pools and PV relations that cold air will be more readily available on this side of the globe (unlike last winter). Therefore continental polar and arctic outbreaks can be expected, but their frequency and length will at times be limited. There will be periods of abnormal warmth under a screaming southwesterly flow during periods when the -NAO relaxes. The threat for mixed precipitation including freezing rain will be amplified this winter due to the abundance of cold air to the north strengthened by CAD (cold air damming) east of the Appalachians as overrunning systems approach from the southwest. Many shortwave and middle latitude cyclones will be fueled by a tight thermal gradient over the middle of the nation. Overrunning, frontogenically-forced precipitation events can quickly produce a quick 6-10in of snow in the cold sector, so they can have widespread impacts despite not being a MECS (major east coast snowstorm).

Overall meteorological mean temperatures will lean above normal for most all climatological reporting stations.

Winter 2012-2013 Selected City Conditions:
KDCA- (+3.5F) (75-90% of normal snowfall)
KBWI- (+3.2F) (80-100% of normal snowfall)
KPHL- (+3.0F) (80-100% of normal snowfall)
KMDT- (+3.0F) (90-105% of normal snowfall)
KUNV- (+2.5F) (100-110% of normal snowfall)
KNYC- (+2.5F) (100-110% of normal snowfall)
KBOS- (+1.8F) (110-125% of normal snowfall)

The bottom line for the upcoming winter support a higher frequency of warm spells in comparison to Arctic Outbreaks. I expect several extended periods of abnormal warmth, particularly during the second half of the winter. Snowfall estimates may be near normal to slightly above normal, but that is strongly based on the fact that the NAO may allow for several periods of blocking. If these -NAO periods do not pan out, I would expect a well below normal snowfall season. Snowfall has the highest chance for above normal deviations north of the I-80 corridor especially across southern New England where they normally do well during S/W flow events. I would expect possibly one larger MECS, but this remains dependent on the state of the NAO. Most snow will occur from other shortwave sources.

As usual, seasonal forecasts often feature lower than normal confidence and accuracy. The forecasts above are highly contingent on the state of the NAO given the general benign forcing from the other factors this year. No additional snow is expected over the next two weeks across the Northeast. Signals for any storminess around Thanksgiving remain pretty weak, so I am not convinced by any long range guidance at this point. I have heard rumbles from energy meteorologists favoring the first week in December for a possible winter storm, but this period is beyond what I can forecast. As in correspondance with my last four winter outlooks, I will post a verification blog during the beginning to middle of March.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012: Link
Winter Forecast 2010-2011: Link
Winter Forecast 2009-2010: Link
Winter Forecast 2008-2009: Link

***All images above can be found at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Space Weather Prediction Center, Rutgers Snow Lab, and Allan Huffman's Raleighwx Maps.

Kocin, P. J. and L. W. Uccellini, 2004: A Snowfall Impact Scale Derived From Northeast Storm Snowfall Distributions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 177-194

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 0.0in
Seasonal Total- 0.8"
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 36.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.5F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning Event

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For those in the NE states Im guessing that theres a high prob of a white Xmass in central to northern new england but for southern New England not looking real good unless there is a real pattern change bringing artic air father east and south.So far every attempt to get real cold air down this far south has failed.
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Good luck, Blizz. Bring some cold with you, you hear me?
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
Any comparison between this upcoming storm and the blizzard of March 2008? I haven't been paying much attention recently and they sound like somewhat similar scenarios...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
This blog will be very busy this weekend and next week. Someone to the west and northwest of the east coast is going to get a major dump of snow, along the coast looks like a heavy cold rain, the appalacians and west to eastern ohio up through cleveland, buffalo, syracuse and north of there will be a good chance as I see it now of 12-18 inches, where i live in Pittsburgh I expect to see 6-12 by 12/19-12/20. Shame it won't be cold enough for snow in Baltimore, with 2-3 in inches of rain most likely to fall, that would of been a 2 footer, however with weather things can change.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Last final is tomorrow, and I will be headed home on Friday. Back to regular blogging in just a few days!


Good luck and have a safe trip home. I remember those days. What a relief to get the semester over. Than you can't wait to get your grades to get the rest of the pressure off and enjoy Christmas.

Quoting MarylandGirl:


We are relly looking forward to tomorrow night....with a new moon the sky should be plenty dark for watching!!!


It might be a new moon, but it also has set by the time it is evening

Pcroton - will there be any coastal flooding in your area? I saw the Delmarva and Cape May are expecting some coastal flooding. I guess from the storm off the coast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Last final is tomorrow, and I will be headed home on Friday. Back to regular blogging in just a few days!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Finally, a clear sky.
What a brilliant morning sky with the Moon and Venus so close to each other. The Geminid meteor shower starts on Thursday evening with no moon in the sky.


We are relly looking forward to tomorrow night....with a new moon the sky should be plenty dark for watching!!!
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Hi LT, hope you have been doing well too. It's been my toughest semester and finals even worse! Thanks for asking though. Hoping for some snow over the month break to enjoy.
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Pcroton - In my years of experience I have seen warm Christmas and January to turn cold and snowy. I have seen snow on Christmas and not much the rest of the year. I'd like to see more storms hitting out west and sliding up through the mid-west. It seems eventually the jet slides eastward and we end up getting hit with a few good storms.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Not too much cold air available during the 19th-20th period; very stale air mass.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
262. bwi
I'm pretty bad at interpreting models, but it looks like a fairly active southern storm track starting to develop? And maybe some cold air coming down after the 20th and some possible lake effect snows that could help lower temps to our north and west? Plus the 8-14 day outlook suggests equal changes of colder or warmer than normal (which is good compared to what has been happening). Looking forward to at least a little snow late Dec or early January so I can test out my new fat tire snow bike!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
Really looks like a stormy period ahead,with a frontal boundary near us and a series of waves,one of those is going to deepen.So the big question is who gets snow,who gets mostly rain,and who gets ice.Tricky.So many factors to watch.Probably won't definitely know until this weekend.The north shouldn't have any problem getting snow,but once you get to southern New England your guess is as good as anybodies.
Happy 12-12-12 to all who get about such things.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
Be careful Listener. Looking ahead next Tues or Wed. you may get some good snow!--Maybe!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Thanks Pcroton!

Yeah, I usually check forecasts and current conditions for Jericho, Randolph (highest elevation) and Norwich Vermont, also Warner and Concord NH and Kennebunk, ME. There are typically about 7 different weather areas between here and there. I appreciate the links.


Currently we have snowflakes with 0% chance of precipitation!
This must be Vermont! :-D
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
Quoting listenerVT:
We will be driving from Kennebunk Maine to Jericho Vermont on Sunday afternoon/evening. The temps up here will be cold enough for snow (30-32 to maybe 36), and accumulations of 1-3" are expected along the route.

Does anyone have a sense of when the heaviest part of the storm will be tracking through? We like to avoid driving during the worst of it...especially for our pregnant daughter-in-law. Thanks!


If you check these meteograms, especially as you get closer to the event, such as by Friday (more models show up in short term on the graphs), you can get a feel for when the heavier stuff comes in.

Montpelier VT

St Johnsbury

Portland ME

Looks like a steady light event intensity wise from start to finish, Sunday morning thru Monday morning. Then looks like something bigger comes in Tuesday.



Main Meteogram Site
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting HeavySnow:
winter?


Not for you this year I would venture a weak guess.

Seems like the north of the Mason-Dixon and north/and/west of I95 best hope kind of year?

Other than our heavily damaging 10"+ in early November here in central NJ...it's looking like one of those borderline years where we will constantly hear about the I95 and also north versus south jersey rain/snow lines.

Who can say...for me in Central NJ I am waiting for that around-xmas pattern change - does it go warm or cool. Then I know what January will be like and if it's warm then you wait for the late January/early Feb pattern change and wonder if we'll get 4-6 weeks of deep freeze February or not... and then you wonder if it's the year that March gives you two big storms, one early, one late, and where the freezing line is. Then you throw in the towel with the slightest wonder if this is the one of four year chance we get the surprise early April snowfall before spring comes.

The point of that little writing is Winter isn't one big long static entity. If it's not cold by December 20th no winter - and if it is - big winter - type things.

It's really a three to four part series for us here. And most of the time one part does not in any way tell you what the next part will be. We've had cold dec, hot jan, cold feb, hot march. We've had 4 cold periods throughout. 4 warm... etc. We just never REALLY know.


I guess for you further south it's much different..either it is cold or it isnt..and this year, seems you're out of luck (sans the "one storm" bit we all wait and watch for every year).
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
We will be driving from Kennebunk Maine to Jericho Vermont on Sunday afternoon/evening. The temps up here will be cold enough for snow (30-32 to maybe 36), and accumulations of 1-3" are expected along the route.

Does anyone have a sense of when the heaviest part of the storm will be tracking through? We'd like to avoid driving during the worst of it...especially for our pregnant daughter-in-law. Thanks!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
winter?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
I'm liking the 12z GFS forecast for 192 hrs...
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not a whole lot of cold air around for next Sunday and Monday,northern areas have the best chance of frozen precip.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
long range finalllly starting to depict something sprouting up right before christmas?
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Finally, a clear sky.
What a brilliant morning sky with the Moon and Venus so close to each other. The Geminid meteor shower starts on Thursday evening with no moon in the sky.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Long range over here in SW CT. for Sunday and Monday next week just shows some rain, with temps. in the low to mid 40's.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
This sucks. lol.
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
All eyes will be watching next Sunday and Monday,may be our first opportunity this year.All depends on if we get a nice blocking high to our north.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
Well Folks, Here is a summary of the snow extremes in Rochester, NY. In '28 and '39 we received less than 3 inches, and the season ended at 55 inches. Two years ago, we had over 46 inches of snow (I don't miss that year), and the season ended at 127 inches. Looking at the long term forecast...no snow storms are detected yet and high temps for the rest of the month will be at freezing or above....so we might be on track for a near record low snowfall this December.

Least Snow in December
Winters Dec Total Season
1928-1929 2.6 55.1
1939-1940 2.6 54.5

Most Snow in December
2010-2011 46.5 127.4
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The 00Z GFS has done lost it's mind.

Meteogram outputs has it dropping our temps here at the coast to below 20F late Sunday afternoon, winds in the 40mph range, and snow. Inland temps in low teens, winds in 30s, snow.


No other model comes close to that output. NWS output offically has little wind and 45F.

Trenton Meteograms


Atlantic Highlands Meteograms




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Hi everyone. Been a long long week. Transit is running decent I'd say in the face of the damage. Unfortunately my schedule has me on the rails before sunrise and after sunset so I can't get a good look at things when the lines go along the waters' edge.

Delays have ceased, but the trip takes 95 minutes instead of 72. This is due to the trains going about 10mph or even less between the Matawan and South Amboy stations over the heavily damaged tracks and bridges.

I would expect that to continue throughout the winter and spring until they decide how to act on this situation.


---

Seems the weather, although wet, is generally tranquil to say the least. It is a nice break to the always expected late fall dry spell.


Doesnt's seem to be anything to write home about model wise anytime soon. So back into the continued lull we go.

Things usually change again around Christmas for us here in central NJ with the next pattern change so let's see where we head from there. Will it be cold or will it be warm.

I'd venture to guess no one and no model has a definitive handle on the situation to be perfectly honest.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
I've had 3 days of measureable precipitation. Almost at 1.0" for the total. To say the least it wasn't a good weekend weatherwise or to get out.

Blizz - it sounds to me like a usual setup for the mid-Atlantic for December weather. Hopefully, the jet will slide eastward come January to bring the storms up the coast and not to our West, which seems to be typical for this time of year. I believe you said we may see more icing this year which means more storms sliding to our West, huh
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
We didn't get snow, heard ice pelting the windows for awhile and I think the rain may have come early. But it's been windier than forecast.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
Quoting Blizzard92:
Long range continues to support few if any snow chances through now the end of December outside northern New England.


My mother always told me...

If you dont have anything good to say dont say anything at all!
Lol.

Not what I like to here Blizz.
Snow = Pennies from heaven for me and my snowplowing.

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Long range continues to support few if any snow chances through now the end of December outside northern New England.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Quoting wxgeek723:


Great news Listener! Tokyo is probably the most well-prepared place for an earthquake; even after last year they were able to get right back on their feet.


Good point!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
I sure wish this was going to be all snow!


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to
7 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for mixed wintry precipitation... which is in
effect from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST Monday.

* Locations... Champlain Valley west into the Saint Lawrence valley
and Adirondacks of northern New York.

* Hazard types... snow... sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches.
Ice accumulation a trace up to a tenth of an inch... especially
in northern New York.

* Timing... late evening Sunday through early Monday morning.

* Impacts... slick roadways due to snow and sleet. Some power lines
and small branches may come down in areas away from the
Champlain Valley.

* Winds... southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Temperatures... lows around 30... rising above freezing during
Monday morning.

* Visibilities... 1 mile or less at times in snow and sleet.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
re: the plot @ 232 two models at 288 hrs pick up something but offset the anomaly to say 70-65 W and a little south ... may be a little early yet. Nice graph. Nasty consequences.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi, TheF1Man, saw that earlier too, but I wouldn't put too much faith into it. If you look closely at it, it depicts the weather map at 1800 hours on Dec. 20th. Right now, the latest GFS computer map shows nothing around that date. However, that is a long way off. I guess something could develop on the coast and give us a"good one"! Hope things are going well for you this semester, and that finals won't be too bad. Good luck. LT_- PS. my rainfall so far from this system is 0.42".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
SL Nice inch of rain from Thurs. nite into Fri.
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^^^ Just saw that image on the main blog, what a great way to start out winter break that would be. What's the time frame on that?
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Quoting listenerVT:
My whole family is converging in SW Maine for our Christmas gathering December 15th-16th! Will there be any snow or (especially!) ice to contend with??


Woke up to this message from my daughter in Tokyo on a business trip:
Hello family -- when you wake up in the morning and see the 7.3 earthquake and tsunami warning reports -- we are fine!
Best use of Facebook ever!!


Great news Listener! Tokyo is probably the most well-prepared place for an earthquake; even after last year they were able to get right back on their feet.

Could it be?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
My whole family is converging in SW Maine for our Christmas gathering December 15th-16th! Will there be any snow or (especially!) ice to contend with??


Woke up to this message from my daughter in Tokyo on a business trip:
Hello family -- when you wake up in the morning and see the 7.3 earthquake and tsunami warning reports -- we are fine!
Best use of Facebook ever!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
A cold rainy day today. Fairly raw. I didn't see any snow this morning. It was 32F when it was raining this morning, but no signs of any icing
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Quoting Blizzard92:
Well the weather pattern looks awful for any threat of snow for the Northeast through at least December 15. Any system will likely cut to our west.


Isn't that what occurs this time of the year. I thought most of the storms this early usually cut up through the midwest
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Blizz,what the heck is going on with these weather patterns???Last year was ridiculous,and this year although not nearly as warm,still doesn't resemble any winter I've seen in recent memory.Maybe it will all change,but nothing in the near future,can you make sense out of this?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
227. bwi
Beautiful sunny day here in DC. Temps probably bottomed out around 35 last night, and likely to go in to the mid or upper 40s this afternoon with light winds.

Although that's pretty close to our average for temps for this time of year, it feels like a "cold" day.

Isn't it bizarre that average feels like the new "cold?"
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
Well the weather pattern looks awful for any threat of snow for the Northeast through at least December 15. Any system will likely cut to our west.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
The weather forecast for the next few days isn't looking promising. UGH
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Oh the threat was very highly publicized, I know. I'm just saying no one expected that because of the complacent "it doesn't happen here" attitude.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
SL @ 222: Actually some folks were expecting this. Here Zach, Sully, PC, and KOG were not shy in calling attention to the storm and its potential. Private forecasters well in advance, Mike Smith, Ryan Maue, or the the Mt. Holly office of the NWS for example, left no doubt as to the power of Hurricane Sandy. It was billed as being worse than either the '92 N'easter or Irene and would say from the damage, the forecast verified. The winds were as advertised. The tides were as advertised. The storm arrived at high tide, in the dark, with a full moon watching from behind the clouds. The back bay flood impacts were as expected based on SLOSH studies made in the 80's whose methodology was verified by Hugo. Maybe the rain was the only part of the equation that was lacking. In spite of a tree trimming program inspired by the winter snow storms 2-3 years ago, and given new importance by Irene, the impacts to transmission, distribution and local communication lines were still massive.

Water levels of + 9 to 11 ft above MSL, with 3- 6 ft waves driven by 30 - 40 mph winds are going to produce wave impacts on structures. As an example only one commercial structure built above el 12, under the guidelines for coastal hazard survived with limited damage in the Highlands. As an aside, remarks by local and outside line crews felt that older homes seem to have survived better than newer construction. An interesting observation if it holds up.

The shore construction is a mix of homes and structures on the coastal plain going back more than a hundred years. Older work took the high ground. Newer work filled in the lesser sites, or crowded the shore and inland lakes and estuaries. The flood insurance studies of the early 70's that defined the coastal hazard areas were only made part of or adopted as state building code requirements in the last few years. Still out there, are lots of structures that today would not meet the specs of the former South Florida BC, revised after Andrew hit South Dade CO. We were lucky that this storm didn't pack 100 + mph winds.

The settlement of claims, after action reports and future mitigation studies are a few months to a year or more away. This includes the in-house review by NHC. Why for example did NYC initially avoid mandatory evacuations and reportedly ignore its Hurricane SOP'S for Fire and EMS. Why was a portion of a local transit agency's rolling stock based in the flood plain for the storm instead of moving to high ground as other regional agencies ? Because Hurricane Sandy was not so advertised by NHC or NWS prior to landfall ? It will take a few years while we see how the chips fall. We will learn from our failures. The seaside is a compelling magnet, just ask the Dutch.
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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