November 7-8 Nor'easter

By: Zachary Labe , 1:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2012

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A deepening low pressure off the eastern seaboard with create nor'easter-like conditions across the Northeast over the next 36 hours. Heavy snow inland with rain and gusty winds along the coast will affect many areas greatly impacted from Hurricane Sandy condinuing to dampen clean-up efforts. Power outages with winds in excess of 50mph sustained can be expected within 20mi of the coast. Further inland across the higher elevations, up to a foot of snow is possible. Stay tuned for this major weather event!

Current Surface Plot...

(Courtesy of HPC)

November 7-8 Nor'easter Timeline and Discussion...
A deepening low pressure center off of the New Jersey coast will continue undergoing impressive cyclogenesis throughout the next 24 hours as surface pressures fall to sub 996mb. As the trough becomes negatively tilted intensification will further in association with an expanding wind and precipitation shield.

A 1032mb anticyclone over Newfoundland will tighten the pressure gradient increasing winds during the day on Wednesday particularly along the coast. Winds aloft a few thousand feet are gusting above 60 knots, and as precipitation rates increase mixing will pull these gusts down to the surface. High wind warning criteria winds are likely from southern New Jersey up through coastal Massachusetts where sustained winds will approach 50mph and an occasional gust to 65mph is expected. Already current metar reports out of Atlantic City show winds gusting to 60mph. Farther inland a more defined stable layer will limit winds to sustained around 20mph, so power outages and tree damage is not expected.

Current storm surge prognostics are indicating a water rise of 1-4 feet from New Jersey to Connecticut. A northeasterly component to the wind will allow water to pull along the favored inlets and bays including once again the Long Island Sound. The high tide of greatest concern is the Thursday morning one where water levels may approach moderate flooding in some areas. Beach erosion is expected. Overall general conditions along the shoreline can be anticipated with a moderate to severe nor'easter. Areas along the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays will generally be spared. I am especially concerned for areas along the coast in Connecticut and New York where clean up is just beginning and will greatly be affected by flooding during the Thursday morning high tide.

Rainfall and associated flooding is not a threat for any locations in the Northeast. Total QPF is only expected to max out around 1.5 inches across southern England. Given current flash flood guidance, no threats are expected.

The 500mb setup is very reminscent of a mid winter nor'easter with banana high system to the north, negative NAO, and rapidly deeping low pressure along the immediate coastline. As the precipitation shield expands inland, a stagnant but dense cooler air mass will allow for the threat of significant snow accumulations in some areas. While it is early November, the sun is not a factor and actually equivalent to an early February sun angle. Looking at the areas under the highest vertical velocity rates and omega growth, dynamic cooling will allow areas even hovering around 33-35F to change to a wet snow. For the time being the combination of best vertical lift and highest QPF will be focused across the Pennsylvania Poconos up through northwestern New Jersey. Ice crystal growth will begin to increase as the column begins to cool below -7C allowing for a period of excellent dendritic growth. Snow ratios may actually approach 15:1 for these areas. Impressive CCB banding will allow for a short period (2-3 hours) of snow rates up to 2in/hr. Snow accumulations will exceed 10in across a few locations in this area especially above 1300ft. Another area of snow concern will be across southeastern Pennsylvania including the Philadelphia metro where latest guidance suggests an impressive mesoscale banding setup that may allow areas to see moderate accumulations of snow in the range of 3-6in. Towards New England mesocale banding features will setup across the Berkshires and parts of northern Connecticut where it is possible for a period of very heavy snow with total accumulations of 5-10in over the higher elevations. Elsewhere most valley locations will see 1-4in generally over grassy surfaces and colder surfaces.

There is still a question as to how far west the precipitation shield expands and therefore the extension of any snow accumulation. For the time being I like my snow map as to a general outline of the precipitation shield. Areas farther west will have a harder time seeing accumulations despite being closer to the heart of the cold air mass as precipitation rates will be lower in association with poor ice crystal growth.

Overall the impacts of this nor'easter will be greatly felt up and down the Middle Atlantic and New England regions. It does appear the low does not linger too long and pulls out of the area by Thursday. Warmer air will also move in by the weekend allowing any snow to melt within 48 hours.

Timeline...
8am-11am Thursday- Precipitation will begin to expand west as the low pressure becomes better organized. A tight pressure gradient already in place will allow coastal areas to see gusts in excess of 55mph from Cape Cod south to Ocean City, MD. Dry air entrenched over the Middle Atlantic will allow for substantial virga with rain/snow not making it north of the Delmarva.

11am-3pm- The precipitation shield will rapidly expand as the low begins to undergo its most rapid strengthening. High precipitation rates will overcome the low dew points and dry air expanding precipitation to as far west as the I-81 corridor. Given the low wetbulb temperatures precipitation will start as a mix of rain/snow/sleet despite surface temperatures in the upper 30s to even near 40F. Before precipitation rates increase further, it may even change over to all rain before the snow especially for parts of New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania.

3pm-8pm- The nor'easter event will be completely underway as precipitation spreads north to NYC and rain changes over to snow across the inland areas of the Middle Atlantic. Snow rates may exceed 1in/hr over eastern Pennsylvania in this period and will accumulate especially after sunset. Winds will be gusting to high wind warning criteria force from Delaware to Maine.

8pm-12am- This period will feature the heaviest snow over the Middle Atlantic while rain falls along the coast. Total QPF alone over eastern Pennsylvania and all of New Jersey in these four hours may exceed 0.5 inches. Dynamic cooling may allow for some snow even in unexpected areas where temperatures are more moderate. High winds and waves up to 15 feet will lash against the Atlantic coast.

12am-6am- The surface low will finally begin to pull northeast spreading the greatest effects towards New England with heavy snow falling over inland areas while severe nor'easter-type impacts are felt along the immediate coast. Precipitation will begin to end over the Middle Atlantic. High tide will be approach during the end of this time period with moderate coastal flooding expected.

6am-10am- Precipitation rates will begin to lighten over the entire Northeast as conditions begin to improve. Nevertheless lingering effects will be felt much of the day.

Regional Radar...
(Courtesy of Intellicast)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

This is my current rain/snow line...
Baltimore, MD - Dover, DE - Vineland, NJ - Jackson, NJ - White Plains, NY - Danbury, CT - Hartford, CT - Worcestor, MA - Portland, ME

***Areas north of this line will have the greatest threat of snow accumulation in excess of two inches. Many areas will see a mix of precipitation given the lack of an arctic air mass source and the time of year. Also a warm northeasterly flow off the Atlantic will keep most coastal areas predominately rain. Nevertheless snow accumulations this early in the year will cause many problems even in areas that receive a rain and snow mix.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Strong winds along the coast exceeding 50-60mph expected from New Jersey to New England.
2. Storm surge estimates will allow water to rise an additional 1-4 ft especially along the Long Island Sound.
3. Heavy snow rates briefly expected inland to exceed 1in/hr.
4. Quick movement of storm will allow effects to last less than 24 hours.
5. Conditions will greatly hamper clean-up efforts across the Middle Atlantic.

Snow Map...


***The highest elevations of the Poconos and Berkshires will receive the heaviest snowfall. Accumulations may exceed 10 inches in this region especially in the region located around Mt. Pocono where brief snow rates may exceed 2in/hr. Light accumulations and more mixed precipitation is expected to the coast, but a slushy 1-2in cannot be ruled out.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Up to 1in of wet snow expected
Baltimore, MD- 1-2in of wet snow possible
Salisbury, MD- Mix of rain/snow/sleet. Snow accumulations up to 1in
Pittsburgh, PA- Mostly cloudy skies
State College PA- A few light snow showers
Williamsport, PA- A few light snow showers
Altoona, PA- A few light snow showers
Harrisburg, PA- Short period of moderate snow; accumulations 1-3in
Lancaster, PA- Period of moderate to heavy snow; accumulations 2-5in
Philadelphia, PA- Rain changing to heav snow with accumulations of 3-5in
Allentown, PA- Moderate snow expected with accumulations around 2-5in
Scranton, PA- Period of light to moderate snow; accumulations up to 2in
Washington, DC- Light rain/snow mix; Up to 1in of snow is possible
Wilmington, DE- Rain changing to heavy snow; accumulations 3-7in
Dover, DE- Rain/snow mix; snow accumulations 1-3in are possible
Trenton, NJ- Rain changing to heavy snow; accumulations 2-4in
New York City, NY- Rain briefly mixing with snow; snow accumulations up to 1in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Brief period of moderate to heavy snow; accumulations 2-5in
Binghamton, NY- Flurries
Ithaca, NY- Cloudy
Albany, NY- Light rain/snow mix; snow accumulations up to 1in
Hartford, CT- Snow changing to rain/snow; accumulations 1-4in
Concord, NH- Rain/snow mix; snow accumulations of 2-4in
Providence, RI- Rain occasionally mixing with snow; accumulations of 1-3in are possible
Worcester, MA- Brief period of moderate to heavy snow; accumulations of 2-6in can be expected
Boston, MA- Rain mixing occasionally with snow; snow accumulations up to 2in possible
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain and high wind gusts upwards of 65mph
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain and high wind gusts upwards of 60mph
Burlington, VT- A few flurries
Portland, ME- Light to moderate snow; snow accumulations 1-4in
Bangor, ME- Moderate snow; snow accumulations 3-6in
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
I think it will be important to focus on mesocale and high resolution models throughout the next 24 hours to look at where the mesoscale and CCB bands will set up. These areas will get some of the higher winds to mix to the surface along with the heaviest snow where I cannot rule out up to 3in per hour. The latest 4km HIRES WRF notes an impressive UVV and omega bursts over portions of southeastern Pennsylvania up through northwestern New Jersey. I really think some of the areas in this region will see upwards of 8-14in of snow. Overall model guidance is in a fairly decent correspondance although the exact track is still a bit uncertain. This will throw into question how far west the precipitation shield reaches. The SREF mean is probably the way to go for this event and allows the .1in contour as far west as 25mi past the I-81 corridor which looks fairly reasonable. The only thing the models may not be grasping in this aspect is the amount of dry air present over the area. Dew points are in the low 20s for many areas this Wednesday morning. Overall the ECWMF scores highest on the verification charts for spotting this threat, but was certainly overamplified therefore pulling a track too far to the west. The GFS did a fairly nice job, and throwing out is progressive nature bias, I will be interested in seeing the actual accuracy charts from the NCEP. The HRRR simulated radar already has a fairly good hold on this system; keep in mind as we advance in time that the composite radar often pulls precipitation too far to the west. I will be posting near term model updates throughout the day.

After the Storm
The latest NAEFS prognostics in association with changes in selection teleconnections are signaling a pattern change for the next coming two weeks. The NAO will begin to tip towards the positive scale again deamplifying the polar jet into a more progressive and zonal flow. This is also in correspondance with a -PNA forming across the Pacific. Latest monsoonal maps out of the Indian Ocean indicate the MJO rotating through phases the support ridging across eastern North America particularly in the southeastern United States. Meanwhile very cold air will begin to drop down across the Rockies and inner mountain west in association with a steep trough that will leave plenty of snow in the higher elevations. This will be good news for water tables after an ongoing mult-year drought.

The milder temperatures and drier air will flood the east coast in the rough estimate period of November 11-20. Latest long range prognostics report the MJO coming around to phases 7,8,1 by Thanksgiving along with a return to a -NAO. This may signal another cooler air mass towards the end of the month. Unlike the current nor'easter that was spotted nearly two to three weeks in advance, there are no signs of any long range major winter storm at this point.

In general I expect November to average slightly above normal given means around +4 compared to normal are likely during this two week warm spell. My next blog, since the weather finally begins to quiet, will be my winter forecast for the meteorological winter for 2012-2013. While it has been delayed later than normal this year, that has helped solidify a slightly higher confidence forecast. This blog can be expected within the next seven days. Stay tuned!

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Seasonal Total- 0.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- ---
Lowest Low Temperature- ---
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None

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127. listenerVT
7:19 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
Pcroton!

Ohhhh myyyy!

Thanks for the photos. I am reminded of several snow and ice storms we've had in NW VT. For what it's worth, the trees here have largely recovered. My son, who is a wildlife biologist, says that whenever a tree comes down everything else around it cries "YES!!" ~ because the available nutrients get reallocated, so to speak.

But the changes in the beauty of the landscape take time to adjust to. We have a bit of a wait before the trees and shrubs we planted last year to fill the hole left when 4 trees came down on 1 December 2010 are large enough to really fill in the space again.

Do you have any white birches? A big windstorm made one of ours bow down to the ground and it only came about halfway back up afterwards. 6 months later another windstorm, from the opposite direction, stood that same tree back up again!

Rest up all you need.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5591
126. listenerVT
7:06 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Holy $#!@ that happens and I'm gonna have to get on my knees in prayer for December. Someone reassure me and tell me that's totally asinine please lol.


Keep praying, though I'm thinking that Mother Nature may not be heeding the power of Love in the Universe this season. I'd suggest a move to NW VT or Canada, but that's when the blocking ridge over Greenland will shift a wee bit and we'll get clobbered up here instead.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5591
125. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:28 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
124. TheRasberryPatch
12:21 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
Pcroton - That is terrble. Sorry that your development saw much tree damage. You just can't get trees that tall in a few years.
Hopefully, with the warm up the next week your area can get some type of normality.

Blizz - good call with the storm. You called this almost a month ago. It just stayed a bit further off the coast. You know how these storms can be so fickle, even with models. You did say recently that the models have a good grasp on these systems. Well, maybe they didn't on this one.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
123. PengSnow
10:14 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Howdy folks. Leveled is the word. Whatever "Sandy" didn't do this one polished off. Every single tree with damage. Here's six select photos. Keep in mind my development is 20 years old and these are juvenile trees around 25-35 feet at most. Imagine the older developments with the 60-80 foot trees that are common in Monmouth County.

Power in and out. On and off. Substation explosion here, transformer explosion there. Somehow we keep coming back on. Priority neighborhood due to many factors. Emergency personnel and such.

Well, here ya go...catastrophic.













That last one, usually you see right through to a house 25 feet away. Instead it is all downed tree now. Amazing stuff. Catch ya all later lot of cleanup and snow removal. Probably hit around 10 inches or so overall. Compaction and melting doing a number already thank god. Plows coming through, driveway cleared, berm next, then some limbs. Cut down overhanging ones on several neighbors trees and mine already.




Thanks for the pics, how close are you to redbank, nJ
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
122. Zachary Labe
10:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Afternoon everyone! Hope everyone is doing well and did not suffer too much more damage from the recent nor'easter. Highest snow total I could find was 13in in New Jersey; anyone see anything higher?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
121. NJTom
7:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
More snow and less wind than predicted. Overall, a better outcome than I had expected. Still, there were about 60,000 additional power outages this morning in NJ. Moving on, I am very much looking forward to reading the winter forecast. Last year at this time virtually all of the long-range forecasters were predicting serious cold and snow for winter along the I-95 corridor (I know, so what else is new? Terrorize the most people for the buck!) Zach's forecast was the only one that accurately called the wave of ridges that kept us mild for most of the season. I won't go so far as to hold out hopes for three months of +NAO this year, but I am interested to know what's coming.
Member Since: December 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
120. Pcroton
6:32 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Took me 7 hours to clean it up. Huge pile of debris now.

Helped a few people out with shoveling and dangerous limb removal. Now I'm wiped out. While most people still staring at it all in awe I always feel it's best to dive right in and get it done.

Just chiming in to say all is well.

Also this tidbit: I am about 10 minutes east of Freehold, and maybe 3-4 miles east of Allaire. I think they both got under the heavy band for a little longer than us when it set up in the county. So maybe my guess of around 10-10.5 inches is pretty good if just a little underdone. What does it matter...

=====================
By late Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service was predicting up to 4 inches of snow in some parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties and had issued a winter weather advisory for the area. But a lot more snow fell in some locales, including 13 inches in Freehold, 12 inches in the Allaire section of Howell, and 12 inches in Jackson and Manchester, according to unofficial observations reported to the National Weather Service Mount Holly office.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
119. NumberWise
5:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Pcroton, that's awful! I do appreciate your posts and photos, for the "news" too often doesn't really inform us of the real situation. I'm amazed that you have had power often enough to post here.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
118. NEwxguy
5:07 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
wunder,I completely agree,I was actually kind of surprised that Dr. Masters threw that out there.Models flip flop within a few days of a storm,nevermind 2 weeks,but *lol* even the thought of such as scenario,boggles the mind.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15984
117. wunderstorm87
4:55 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Quoting NEwxguy:
So,I visit Dr. Masters blog to see if there is anything new being reported,other than the usual in fighting going on,I happen to see a quick update from Dr. Masters in the blog last night.Now please keep in mind this is a two week away GFS model update,so not going to get all excited about it,but it certainly catches my interest,curious blizz if you've seen anything long range.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters

First of all this is at 300 some hours and the 12z GFS already looks much different. Never listen to any model runs after 240hrs and even think it has more than a 1 or 2% chance of happening. Second of all the system the 6z had merging with the storm off the east coast was a very weak non-tropical low. It started out as a TD or weak TS and quickly became extra tropical as it turned north. The system is not even in the same ballpark as the recent nor'easter let alone Sandy. The block and the two lows are easily visible in the image below:

There is one caveat to this though. While the latest ensemble forecasts do show the NAO going positive briefly, they also indicate a sharp decrease to more of a negative NAO in about 10 days, which will favor a plethora of east coast storm scenarios, but most likely a nor'easter.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
116. wxgeek723
4:37 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Howdy folks. Leveled is the word. Whatever "Sandy" didn't do this one polished off. Every single tree with damage. Here's six select photos. Keep in mind my development is 20 years old and these are juvenile trees around 25-35 feet at most. Imagine the older developments with the 60-80 foot trees that are common in Monmouth County.

Power in and out. On and off. Substation explosion here, transformer explosion there. Somehow we keep coming back on. Priority neighborhood due to many factors. Emergency personnel and such.

Well, here ya go...catastrophic.













That last one, usually you see right through to a house 25 feet away. Instead it is all downed tree now. Amazing stuff. Catch ya all later lot of cleanup and snow removal. Probably hit around 10 inches or so overall. Compaction and melting doing a number already thank god. Plows coming through, driveway cleared, berm next, then some limbs. Cut down overhanging ones on several neighbors trees and mine already.




Wow P. You guys must have REALLY pissed Mother Nature off because I barely even saw slush accumulate. Shafted in Sandy and this one. No complaints though.

Quoting NEwxguy:
So,I visit Dr. Masters blog to see if there is anything new being reported,other than the usual in fighting going on,I happen to see a quick update from Dr. Masters in the blog last night.Now please keep in mind this is a two week away GFS model update,so not going to get all excited about it,but it certainly catches my interest,curious blizz if you've seen anything long range.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters


Holy $#!@ that happens and I'm gonna have to get on my knees in prayer for December. Someone reassure me and tell me that's totally asinine please lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
115. NEwxguy
3:10 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
So,I visit Dr. Masters blog to see if there is anything new being reported,other than the usual in fighting going on,I happen to see a quick update from Dr. Masters in the blog last night.Now please keep in mind this is a two week away GFS model update,so not going to get all excited about it,but it certainly catches my interest,curious blizz if you've seen anything long range.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15984
114. Pcroton
1:56 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Howdy folks. Leveled is the word. Whatever "Sandy" didn't do this one polished off. Every single tree with damage. Here's six select photos. Keep in mind my development is 20 years old and these are juvenile trees around 25-35 feet at most. Imagine the older developments with the 60-80 foot trees that are common in Monmouth County.

Power in and out. On and off. Substation explosion here, transformer explosion there. Somehow we keep coming back on. Priority neighborhood due to many factors. Emergency personnel and such.

Well, here ya go...catastrophic.













That last one, usually you see right through to a house 25 feet away. Instead it is all downed tree now. Amazing stuff. Catch ya all later lot of cleanup and snow removal. Probably hit around 10 inches or so overall. Compaction and melting doing a number already thank god. Plows coming through, driveway cleared, berm next, then some limbs. Cut down overhanging ones on several neighbors trees and mine already.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
113. techteacher1
1:33 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
It's been called Winter Storm Ari by the original winter storm name callers in Southern New England. WFSB - named last years October storm Alfred. Tell the Weather Channel to quit muscling in on naming our storms!

Member Since: November 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
112. Zachary Labe
1:08 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Morning all! Maybe I should not have posted a forecast yesterday at the last minute, lol. It is obvious that the track of the storm was further east in association with the precipitation shield. Fortunately tidal flooding and high winds were less of a threat along the coast. A warm up is headed our way towards the weekend, so the snow won't be sticking around for long!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
111. PhillySnow
12:58 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Hi everyone. No snow here; not even a dusting. Amazing to hear the totals east of us. Hope you guys still have power, P and LT.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1270
110. TheRasberryPatch
12:56 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Temperature never got close to 32F for the nor'easter. We had clouds and breezy conditions especially yesterday morning. No precipitation.

I am looking forward to the warm up. I am not ready for snowstorms this time of the year. I don't mind a couple of inches in November, but there is still things to do outside.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
109. goofyrider
12:22 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Spring Lake:  Five inches measured this @0700  total.   Radar signature showing rain last night while we were in moderate snow.   
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2932
108. sullivanweather
11:28 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
We struggled to get flurries here but about 25 miles southeast of me had close to 4".

The 13" we had from the "Snowtober" storm last October was gone in 2 days (the very next day on south facing hills/sunny areas) so I expect most of the snow will be gone by this evening except for the shady spots.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
107. Hoynieva
10:44 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Going out now to clean up for clients, but at least the temps rose above freezing a few hours ago and melting has begun. When I went to bed we had 6" and now it looks down quite a bit, just won't know until I'm out there. With temps reaching mid to upper 40's today and the continuing 'heat wave' this weekend, this may all be gone by tomorrow afternoon. Alas, this is going to be one slushy day.

P - You're a magnet for atmospheric anger. It's just insanity how strongly the storms have hit your area the past few years. Good luck with cleanup.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
106. HeavySnow
10:39 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
I had sleet and snow showers yesterday several times. No sticking of course.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
105. lawntonlookirs
8:03 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Amazing that everyone that just about everone that was hit hard by Sandy last week is getting all of the nasty weather this week. In Harrisburg we didn't get any rain or snow and only a slight wind. The news from the morning shows in New York should be interesting in the morning with all of the storm damage being reported. A lot more people without power. PPL area only has 12 outages reported which would be in most of South Eastern and parts of Central Pennsylvania.
Member Since: April 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
104. Pcroton
7:24 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
FREEHOLD 9.5 1100 PM 11/07 PUBLIC


At 11PM, Freehold not too far to my West, got 9.5"

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
103. Pcroton
7:22 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
This was issued when I probably had around 9 to 9.5 inches.



1253 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

ONE LAST SNOW BAND PUSH
THE PERSISTENT MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING LOOKS TO BE WINDING DOWN
ACROSS MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. AS THE NOR'EASTER
CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST IT WILL PULL
THE FINAL SNOW BANDS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. STILL EXPECT
1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. ALREADY HAVE REPORTS NEARING DOUBLE DIGITS IN
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES. WE COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 3 TO 4 INCHES
FROM THIS FINAL PUSH.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
102. Pcroton
6:43 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Just got woken up by a huge crash from a large tree splitting open like a bannana. Many more limbs have cracked since earlier.

Looking outside it appears my cleanly shoveled driveway has about 3 inches of new snow on it. I cleared it and then had measured the 7.5 reading a little after 9PM. So we have around 10.5 that i can tell. Certainly not going outside.

Snowing heavily right now. Amazing... it's a total war zone now. Whole maples encased in so much snow they look like a kid's drawing.

Power? How...I don't know.

Kinda hard to sleep to continued crack crack CRASH.

Thank God nothing truly threatens the house beyond maybe a little siding damage at worst.


Tinton Falls, NJ - 31F. It just keeps snowing.

BTW - Maybe we all owe the NAM an apology? It saw insane snowfall potential...and this is what we got.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
101. Pcroton
4:20 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Quoting techteacher1:


Devon over by the salt marsh. Lovely weather we've been having. Hurricane to nor'easter, within a week. What's next, tornados?


Well, we already had the earthquake a couple days ago (2.2 in north jersey).

So I'm guessing we're due for a volcanic eruption.

Maybe during the mini "heat" wave we're about to get Sun-Mon.

Hurricane, Earthquake, Blizzard, Heat Wave? LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
100. Pcroton
4:14 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Tinton Falls, NJ - 31F

Still snowing light to moderate. Doesn't seem to want to give it up any time soon. Can we make a run at 12"? Insane.....had a few inklings going back to last night we may be headed for more snow than we knew and less winds. But jeez..this is ridiculous!!!




Time for bed...clearly they will be plowing and I will be chipping away at a berm in the morning. Driveway was cleared last I was out. Got an inch back on it already.

I wonder how much as actually fallen as we have had melting and compression and still got 8.5" on the ground.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
99. MariettaMoon
3:51 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Not a single flake today in Marietta. What a jip!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
98. originalLT
3:43 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Stay safe "P". I would not be surprised if my power goes soon too. But when mine goes, its usually 2-3 days before its back.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
97. llcooljj
3:39 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
I've got nothing Jerry. Nothing!

In Dillsburg, PA.

Not a drop of rain or a flake of snow all day.

It is getting a little windy though.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
96. Pcroton
3:35 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Just got power back after having lost it. We are over 8" now.

Here is an image I took a little after 9PM:



Still snowing light to moderate.


Here is a tree that exploded from the weight:



We have had heavy tree damage throughout the neighborhood. A lot of cracks and crashes heard all directions. Some very large trees down out on the roads. All roads deep snow covered secondary and main roads alike. A lot of blue green flashes everywhere in the sky from power lines and transformers taking hits. Power is very shaky right now.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
95. zotty
3:33 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Can't tell how much snow is out there now but still snowing, just not as hard. This Athena stuff is for the birds. I keep thinking of the old Nintendo game. Anyway the first plow went by about a half hour ago. On a Main Street. I'd guess they were caught off guard with this one. While I may think Athena is totally stupid at least they a the weathe channel had a good forecast yesterday while NWS was talking all rain. New Rochelle NY
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
94. Hoynieva
3:24 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Still snowing here, up to 5.3" now in Brooklyn. It's lighter than earlier but still coming down.

Thanks for the IG follow, Blizz, I'll try to put a snow shot or two up tomorrow. This has been a very surprising snowfall.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
93. Zachary Labe
3:20 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Wow very impressive snow totals being reported! Thanks to everyone posting!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
92. originalLT
3:07 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Just took out the garbage, and saw how the trees are so weighted down with snow. The branches are hanging low, also the wires in the street are sagging. Plus it's still windy, Northerly, 15-30mph. Wouldn't be surprised if power goes out in several places from this, maybe me! Stamford Ct. PS, I have, 3-4". 31FBaro. 29.76 falling slowly.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
91. toph
3:04 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Getting buried here - near Croton-on-Hudson in Westchester Co, NY. About 8" on the ground and climbing. Wind starting to drift the snow.

Low seems to be moving very slow. Given how far behind the curve the models and mets have been on this storm, I'm not sure what to expect in the morning. NWS has us at 4-8, but clearly we'll surpass that...

Member Since: January 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
90. wxgeek723
2:51 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Steady snow now but too little too late.


:(
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
89. techteacher1
1:04 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Quoting Gaara:
Where are you at in Milford, out of curiosity? We live off Ford Street behind the police station.


Devon over by the salt marsh. Lovely weather we've been having. Hurricane to nor'easter, within a week. What's next, tornados?
Member Since: November 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
88. Gaara
12:39 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Quoting techteacher1:
Haven't posted in a few years. Used to be techteacher but can't remember the password. In Milford, CT it's been snowing since 10:30 AM. No accumulation at first but that began to change around 1:30 PM. Lights are flickering and had an instance of thunder snow. I'm sorry folks but this gut shot is not what we needed. We need a long break from the weather.


Where are you at in Milford, out of curiosity? We live off Ford Street behind the police station.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 400
87. Gaara
12:36 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
65 minute, 2.5 mile commute. 4" of the sticky icky on the ground here in Milford.. At one point it seemed that some sleet was mixed in, which felt great against my face in the 25mph winds.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 400
86. wxgeek723
12:35 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Two feet guys!

Just kidding, it's still raining. Eh whatever.

Weird thing is, it's raining inland and snowing by the coast. Sounds counterintuitive but that's how things go. Williamstown, about ten miles to my west-southwest, is reporting 2". Pffft.

Guess Mt Holly really jumped the gun issuing a WSW for us this morning. I was surprised. Haven't been under one of them since the Feb 22, 2011 storm. Now I wonder if we even needed the WWA.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
85. techteacher1
12:35 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Haven't posted in a few years. Used to be techteacher but can't remember the password. In Milford, CT it's been snowing since 10:30 AM. No accumulation at first but that began to change around 1:30 PM. Lights are flickering and had an instance of thunder snow. I'm sorry folks but this gut shot is not what we needed. We need a long break from the weather.
Member Since: November 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
84. Hoynieva
11:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
What's this Athena business? I hope this marketing ploy slowly fades away.

This storm must have shifted East since I last checked on things last night because we have 3-4" of snow in the city and counting. It's been moderately to heavily snowing now for a few hours after an off and on mix beginning around 1030 to all snow around 230. The city is a mess. From hurricane to heavy wet blowing snow to the coming sunshine and warmth this weekend. Extremes seem the new norm.

If anyone else is on Instagram, for I don't use any other social apps/sites, I post occasional weather related photos on there as well as other random things I see. Guerrillagardener is the screenname.

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
83. GTOSnow
11:30 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Wind gusts over 60mph on the south coast of Mass. It is very windy even here in central mass. About 2.5 inches so far in Sutton, MA.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
82. Pcroton
11:08 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Forecast has dropped winds to 40 gusts now. I just had a feeling the numbers were too high to start.

Forecast still saying 1-3 accum, but, a special advisory just said 3" has been reported and a heavy band is setting up to impact us the next few hours. So maybe as much as 6" if we dont mix or taper off!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
81. originalLT
11:03 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Snowing here in Stamford CT. Grassy areas covered and the streets are covered too. maybe an inch or two at most, temp. is 32F Also, like Pcroton, I am NOT receiving those dreaded high winds. Mostly now from the N at 15-25mph, with some higher gusts but not much above 35mph. at any time during the day.The Snow fall rate I would call moderate. Baro. has bottomed out, for now, I think(the storm) has gone further East than thought, thats why we are missing the stronger winds here, but we have the winds out of the N so its bringing in colder air. Baro. is 29.83" and steady.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
80. Pcroton
10:56 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Last one...dont want to spam the blog on yas. But its so amazing.




3" now. Bouncing between 30 and 31F.

Winds gusting 25 at times but no hint at more...yet.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12444
79. TheRasberryPatch
10:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
No snow for LSV. It has been cool and brisk most of the day with a temp of 42F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
78. Zachary Labe
10:52 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Looks like everything is shifted about 50mi east from the original forecast above. Although I am quite surprised to see the amounts coming in out of Connecticut; 7in wow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
77. bostonsnow
10:31 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
snowing heavily here in Medford, MA, just outside of Boston. NWS has no mention of snow in our forecast and we have an inch on the ground. Will this continue or is the change to rain coming soon?
Member Since: November 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

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