November 7-8 Nor'easter

By: Zachary Labe , 1:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2012

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A deepening low pressure off the eastern seaboard with create nor'easter-like conditions across the Northeast over the next 36 hours. Heavy snow inland with rain and gusty winds along the coast will affect many areas greatly impacted from Hurricane Sandy condinuing to dampen clean-up efforts. Power outages with winds in excess of 50mph sustained can be expected within 20mi of the coast. Further inland across the higher elevations, up to a foot of snow is possible. Stay tuned for this major weather event!

Current Surface Plot...

(Courtesy of HPC)

November 7-8 Nor'easter Timeline and Discussion...
A deepening low pressure center off of the New Jersey coast will continue undergoing impressive cyclogenesis throughout the next 24 hours as surface pressures fall to sub 996mb. As the trough becomes negatively tilted intensification will further in association with an expanding wind and precipitation shield.

A 1032mb anticyclone over Newfoundland will tighten the pressure gradient increasing winds during the day on Wednesday particularly along the coast. Winds aloft a few thousand feet are gusting above 60 knots, and as precipitation rates increase mixing will pull these gusts down to the surface. High wind warning criteria winds are likely from southern New Jersey up through coastal Massachusetts where sustained winds will approach 50mph and an occasional gust to 65mph is expected. Already current metar reports out of Atlantic City show winds gusting to 60mph. Farther inland a more defined stable layer will limit winds to sustained around 20mph, so power outages and tree damage is not expected.

Current storm surge prognostics are indicating a water rise of 1-4 feet from New Jersey to Connecticut. A northeasterly component to the wind will allow water to pull along the favored inlets and bays including once again the Long Island Sound. The high tide of greatest concern is the Thursday morning one where water levels may approach moderate flooding in some areas. Beach erosion is expected. Overall general conditions along the shoreline can be anticipated with a moderate to severe nor'easter. Areas along the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays will generally be spared. I am especially concerned for areas along the coast in Connecticut and New York where clean up is just beginning and will greatly be affected by flooding during the Thursday morning high tide.

Rainfall and associated flooding is not a threat for any locations in the Northeast. Total QPF is only expected to max out around 1.5 inches across southern England. Given current flash flood guidance, no threats are expected.

The 500mb setup is very reminscent of a mid winter nor'easter with banana high system to the north, negative NAO, and rapidly deeping low pressure along the immediate coastline. As the precipitation shield expands inland, a stagnant but dense cooler air mass will allow for the threat of significant snow accumulations in some areas. While it is early November, the sun is not a factor and actually equivalent to an early February sun angle. Looking at the areas under the highest vertical velocity rates and omega growth, dynamic cooling will allow areas even hovering around 33-35F to change to a wet snow. For the time being the combination of best vertical lift and highest QPF will be focused across the Pennsylvania Poconos up through northwestern New Jersey. Ice crystal growth will begin to increase as the column begins to cool below -7C allowing for a period of excellent dendritic growth. Snow ratios may actually approach 15:1 for these areas. Impressive CCB banding will allow for a short period (2-3 hours) of snow rates up to 2in/hr. Snow accumulations will exceed 10in across a few locations in this area especially above 1300ft. Another area of snow concern will be across southeastern Pennsylvania including the Philadelphia metro where latest guidance suggests an impressive mesoscale banding setup that may allow areas to see moderate accumulations of snow in the range of 3-6in. Towards New England mesocale banding features will setup across the Berkshires and parts of northern Connecticut where it is possible for a period of very heavy snow with total accumulations of 5-10in over the higher elevations. Elsewhere most valley locations will see 1-4in generally over grassy surfaces and colder surfaces.

There is still a question as to how far west the precipitation shield expands and therefore the extension of any snow accumulation. For the time being I like my snow map as to a general outline of the precipitation shield. Areas farther west will have a harder time seeing accumulations despite being closer to the heart of the cold air mass as precipitation rates will be lower in association with poor ice crystal growth.

Overall the impacts of this nor'easter will be greatly felt up and down the Middle Atlantic and New England regions. It does appear the low does not linger too long and pulls out of the area by Thursday. Warmer air will also move in by the weekend allowing any snow to melt within 48 hours.

Timeline...
8am-11am Thursday- Precipitation will begin to expand west as the low pressure becomes better organized. A tight pressure gradient already in place will allow coastal areas to see gusts in excess of 55mph from Cape Cod south to Ocean City, MD. Dry air entrenched over the Middle Atlantic will allow for substantial virga with rain/snow not making it north of the Delmarva.

11am-3pm- The precipitation shield will rapidly expand as the low begins to undergo its most rapid strengthening. High precipitation rates will overcome the low dew points and dry air expanding precipitation to as far west as the I-81 corridor. Given the low wetbulb temperatures precipitation will start as a mix of rain/snow/sleet despite surface temperatures in the upper 30s to even near 40F. Before precipitation rates increase further, it may even change over to all rain before the snow especially for parts of New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania.

3pm-8pm- The nor'easter event will be completely underway as precipitation spreads north to NYC and rain changes over to snow across the inland areas of the Middle Atlantic. Snow rates may exceed 1in/hr over eastern Pennsylvania in this period and will accumulate especially after sunset. Winds will be gusting to high wind warning criteria force from Delaware to Maine.

8pm-12am- This period will feature the heaviest snow over the Middle Atlantic while rain falls along the coast. Total QPF alone over eastern Pennsylvania and all of New Jersey in these four hours may exceed 0.5 inches. Dynamic cooling may allow for some snow even in unexpected areas where temperatures are more moderate. High winds and waves up to 15 feet will lash against the Atlantic coast.

12am-6am- The surface low will finally begin to pull northeast spreading the greatest effects towards New England with heavy snow falling over inland areas while severe nor'easter-type impacts are felt along the immediate coast. Precipitation will begin to end over the Middle Atlantic. High tide will be approach during the end of this time period with moderate coastal flooding expected.

6am-10am- Precipitation rates will begin to lighten over the entire Northeast as conditions begin to improve. Nevertheless lingering effects will be felt much of the day.

Regional Radar...
(Courtesy of Intellicast)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

This is my current rain/snow line...
Baltimore, MD - Dover, DE - Vineland, NJ - Jackson, NJ - White Plains, NY - Danbury, CT - Hartford, CT - Worcestor, MA - Portland, ME

***Areas north of this line will have the greatest threat of snow accumulation in excess of two inches. Many areas will see a mix of precipitation given the lack of an arctic air mass source and the time of year. Also a warm northeasterly flow off the Atlantic will keep most coastal areas predominately rain. Nevertheless snow accumulations this early in the year will cause many problems even in areas that receive a rain and snow mix.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Strong winds along the coast exceeding 50-60mph expected from New Jersey to New England.
2. Storm surge estimates will allow water to rise an additional 1-4 ft especially along the Long Island Sound.
3. Heavy snow rates briefly expected inland to exceed 1in/hr.
4. Quick movement of storm will allow effects to last less than 24 hours.
5. Conditions will greatly hamper clean-up efforts across the Middle Atlantic.

Snow Map...


***The highest elevations of the Poconos and Berkshires will receive the heaviest snowfall. Accumulations may exceed 10 inches in this region especially in the region located around Mt. Pocono where brief snow rates may exceed 2in/hr. Light accumulations and more mixed precipitation is expected to the coast, but a slushy 1-2in cannot be ruled out.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Up to 1in of wet snow expected
Baltimore, MD- 1-2in of wet snow possible
Salisbury, MD- Mix of rain/snow/sleet. Snow accumulations up to 1in
Pittsburgh, PA- Mostly cloudy skies
State College PA- A few light snow showers
Williamsport, PA- A few light snow showers
Altoona, PA- A few light snow showers
Harrisburg, PA- Short period of moderate snow; accumulations 1-3in
Lancaster, PA- Period of moderate to heavy snow; accumulations 2-5in
Philadelphia, PA- Rain changing to heav snow with accumulations of 3-5in
Allentown, PA- Moderate snow expected with accumulations around 2-5in
Scranton, PA- Period of light to moderate snow; accumulations up to 2in
Washington, DC- Light rain/snow mix; Up to 1in of snow is possible
Wilmington, DE- Rain changing to heavy snow; accumulations 3-7in
Dover, DE- Rain/snow mix; snow accumulations 1-3in are possible
Trenton, NJ- Rain changing to heavy snow; accumulations 2-4in
New York City, NY- Rain briefly mixing with snow; snow accumulations up to 1in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Brief period of moderate to heavy snow; accumulations 2-5in
Binghamton, NY- Flurries
Ithaca, NY- Cloudy
Albany, NY- Light rain/snow mix; snow accumulations up to 1in
Hartford, CT- Snow changing to rain/snow; accumulations 1-4in
Concord, NH- Rain/snow mix; snow accumulations of 2-4in
Providence, RI- Rain occasionally mixing with snow; accumulations of 1-3in are possible
Worcester, MA- Brief period of moderate to heavy snow; accumulations of 2-6in can be expected
Boston, MA- Rain mixing occasionally with snow; snow accumulations up to 2in possible
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain and high wind gusts upwards of 65mph
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain and high wind gusts upwards of 60mph
Burlington, VT- A few flurries
Portland, ME- Light to moderate snow; snow accumulations 1-4in
Bangor, ME- Moderate snow; snow accumulations 3-6in
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
I think it will be important to focus on mesocale and high resolution models throughout the next 24 hours to look at where the mesoscale and CCB bands will set up. These areas will get some of the higher winds to mix to the surface along with the heaviest snow where I cannot rule out up to 3in per hour. The latest 4km HIRES WRF notes an impressive UVV and omega bursts over portions of southeastern Pennsylvania up through northwestern New Jersey. I really think some of the areas in this region will see upwards of 8-14in of snow. Overall model guidance is in a fairly decent correspondance although the exact track is still a bit uncertain. This will throw into question how far west the precipitation shield reaches. The SREF mean is probably the way to go for this event and allows the .1in contour as far west as 25mi past the I-81 corridor which looks fairly reasonable. The only thing the models may not be grasping in this aspect is the amount of dry air present over the area. Dew points are in the low 20s for many areas this Wednesday morning. Overall the ECWMF scores highest on the verification charts for spotting this threat, but was certainly overamplified therefore pulling a track too far to the west. The GFS did a fairly nice job, and throwing out is progressive nature bias, I will be interested in seeing the actual accuracy charts from the NCEP. The HRRR simulated radar already has a fairly good hold on this system; keep in mind as we advance in time that the composite radar often pulls precipitation too far to the west. I will be posting near term model updates throughout the day.

After the Storm
The latest NAEFS prognostics in association with changes in selection teleconnections are signaling a pattern change for the next coming two weeks. The NAO will begin to tip towards the positive scale again deamplifying the polar jet into a more progressive and zonal flow. This is also in correspondance with a -PNA forming across the Pacific. Latest monsoonal maps out of the Indian Ocean indicate the MJO rotating through phases the support ridging across eastern North America particularly in the southeastern United States. Meanwhile very cold air will begin to drop down across the Rockies and inner mountain west in association with a steep trough that will leave plenty of snow in the higher elevations. This will be good news for water tables after an ongoing mult-year drought.

The milder temperatures and drier air will flood the east coast in the rough estimate period of November 11-20. Latest long range prognostics report the MJO coming around to phases 7,8,1 by Thanksgiving along with a return to a -NAO. This may signal another cooler air mass towards the end of the month. Unlike the current nor'easter that was spotted nearly two to three weeks in advance, there are no signs of any long range major winter storm at this point.

In general I expect November to average slightly above normal given means around +4 compared to normal are likely during this two week warm spell. My next blog, since the weather finally begins to quiet, will be my winter forecast for the meteorological winter for 2012-2013. While it has been delayed later than normal this year, that has helped solidify a slightly higher confidence forecast. This blog can be expected within the next seven days. Stay tuned!

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Seasonal Total- 0.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- ---
Lowest Low Temperature- ---
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None

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77. bostonsnow
10:31 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
snowing heavily here in Medford, MA, just outside of Boston. NWS has no mention of snow in our forecast and we have an inch on the ground. Will this continue or is the change to rain coming soon?
Member Since: November 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
76. Pcroton
10:27 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
We are in trouble....limbs cracking and falling already. Got a couple quick shots before it got dark. Not good.








This is snow not rain on the microphone...its getting very icy.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
73. Dabbio
10:06 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Brooklyn, NY. 33F 10-15 mph NNE. Light snow. Slush for the rush!
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
72. Pcroton
9:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
First plow of the season just went by!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
71. Pcroton
9:26 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:
Still raining.

-_____-

It's always me in the green.


Ordinarily I'd say BOO to that.

But, looking at my trees... I dunno man. It's very cool but if the winds come. Not good.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
70. Pcroton
9:26 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
They really expect the winds to ramp up that much?

We have nothing here in NJ. That 35mph gust earlier was the most. We've been around 20-25 at times here.

Our trees with leaves are bending pretty good already. If this keeps up and we get the winds 50-60+ as forecast we're in trouble. Limbs will snap.

I'm still sticking to my guns, right or wrong, I don't see the winds for my area of NJ. Havent throughout even though the forecasts have been steady (despite dropping to 55mph last update).

I dunno. We all know winds kick up when storms pull out to sea in the winter.

But 55? 65 coastal? I dunno. I don't see any gusts listed higher than the 20s throughout NJ,DE,MD coastlines.

With the colder and snowier trend occuring I would suspect winds wont verify. Never did.

Hope I am right. Really do.

Almost dark now. Solid moderate snow. Approaching 2". 30F. Snow taking on the colder form, too! Mix of wet flakes and drier smaller flakes now.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
69. wxgeek723
9:23 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Still raining.

-_____-

It's always me in the green.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3468
68. NEwxguy
9:14 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
here in Waltham just west of Boston,its a bad day out there. 31 degrees winds 15 to 25 with higher gusts,snowing,mixing with rain at times.Not nice!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
67. Dabbio
9:11 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK
CITY...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT...
...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR CONNECTICUT AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...COASTAL
CONNECTICUT... HUDSON COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.
IN AREAS RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE COMBINATION OF THESE
WINDS WITH THIS SNOW WILL RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES BEING EVEN
MORE LIKELY.
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
66. Pcroton
9:06 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Last two pics as it is starting to get dark here.

31F and dropping. 1.5" snow and counting. Moderate snow unchanged intensity. Little wind to 20mph at times.





Will check in later. Pray the wind continues to be a forecast bust!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
65. Dabbio
9:03 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Brooklyn, NY. 33F 25 mph N. Storm's kickin', snow's stickin'.
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
64. wxgeek723
8:55 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Bellmawr, NJ
36F Light rain/sleet
Currently changing to snow
We've been fluctuating on and off between steady rain and snow all day. No accumulation as of yet.

I REALLY did not want to pay attention to The Weather Channel's naming system as I really don't like the idea and I felt like knowing whatever they named the storm would sort of deflate some of my excitement for it.

But then I remembered TWC owns this site now, which means so long as I frequent WU I will have a tough time avoiding the naming system. Annoying.

Hopefully this idea will generate a negative reception by the end of the winter because I don't want to see it again next year.



But anyway. November snowstorms anybody?
I honestly can't think of any significant ones off the top of my head honestly. I remember a small snowstorm in November 2007 and I know we had a nor'easter that brought some snow in November 1995 but other than that I really don't know any.

Anyone know a few?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3468
63. PhillySnow
8:53 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


I find it highly doubtful that the precipitation shield will make it far enough west for you to get anything of significance. This is looking like an eastern NY/NJ/southern New England storm now.

Thanks! That makes sense with what I'm seeing.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
62. Pcroton
8:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Naming winter lows is stupid especially when a corporate entity looking for attention does it. If they even followed their own rules this would be the second or third named storm.

--------------

Seems like if this keeps up we will not get wind...and will indeed end up with many inches of snow. We will see how it pans out. Kind of difficult to call.


Our forecast has changed a little. Slightly lower winds (still feel they wont verify) and more snow accumulation. With what we already have I would say we may end up on the high side of guidance.


TONIGHT
A CHANCE OF SLEET. SNOW WITH RAIN LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...DECREASING TO
45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
61. ConnecticutWXGuy
8:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting PhillySnow:
Not much happening here. Light rain, bit of sleet, no wind, nothing sticking. Wish the shore had it so easy. I'm wondering if the storm is going to come even this far west, although the forecast says it will.


I find it highly doubtful that the precipitation shield will make it far enough west for you to get anything of significance. This is looking like an eastern NY/NJ/southern New England storm now.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
60. ConnecticutWXGuy
8:37 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
4 inches of snow here in Naugatuck, with some pretty decent wind gusts going on as well. Main roads are wet, secondary roads are snow covered.

Also I don't get why there is all the fuss about naming winter storms. They should have done it sooner, IMO... just because it was TWC's idea doesn't make it a bad one. They have been naming winter storms up here for decades. "Snowtober" for example was Winter Storm Alfred if you live in southern New England.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
59. PhillySnow
8:36 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Not much happening here. Light rain, bit of sleet, no wind, nothing sticking. Wish the shore had it so easy. I'm wondering if the storm is going to come even this far west, although the forecast says it will.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
58. Dabbio
8:32 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Brooklyn, NY. Snow squalls, 20 mph N. 34F
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
57. GTOSnow
8:27 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Snowing good here at work in Smithfield RI, sticking in the parking lot, but not on the roads to bad yet.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
56. goofyrider
8:21 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Snowing here.  Grass and landscaping almost covered and roads becoming slippery..
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2727
55. Pcroton
8:20 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Both of my Trenton visits featured less than desireable circumstances.

Meanwhile in Tinton Falls...

So much for only sticking to grassy surfaces...road is covered. It is also sticking to every branch and every tree and the limbs are bending pretty quickly on those with leaves as you can see one shrub in one pic bending to the ground already. You can see the one of three pear trees I slaughtered yesterday in anticipation in the same image. I'll worry about the stumps later.

Moderate snow continues, approaching 1", 32F and falling. Winds light right now.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
54. zotty
8:17 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Still snowing steadily in White Plains, NY (25 mi north of Midtown, NYC). Wind more NNW and sustained winds not as strong as earlier. Starting to stick on the grass and parked cars.
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
53. Gaara
8:16 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


They should have put him in the Waterbury, CT area where the heaviest snow bands have set up


My stepmother just started working there. I should ask her about her commute.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
52. ConnecticutWXGuy
8:00 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Anyone see Cantore was in Hoboken earlier. They shipped him down to Trenton to try to see the snow. Rofl at that. Like nobody has ever seen 3 inches of snow before in November. TWC Fail. Athena Fail.

I've only been forced to go to Trenton twice in my life. And I will only go there again if I am forced to make an appearance. And it certainly wouldn't be to go see a couple inches of snow in November.


They should have put him in the Waterbury, CT area where the heaviest snow bands have set up
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
51. Gaara
7:53 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Anyone see Cantore was in Hoboken earlier. They shipped him down to Trenton to try to see the snow. Rofl at that. Like nobody has ever seen 3 inches of snow before in November. TWC Fail. Athena Fail.

I've only been forced to go to Trenton twice in my life. And I will only go there again if I am forced to make an appearance. And it certainly wouldn't be to go see a couple inches of snow in November.


Ahh trenton.

I went there in 2010 to see a Thunder game. Stayed over the night before at the city's ONLY hotel (which is due to close) and started checking out places on yelp to grab a drink. Everything involved a 6+ block walk though areas that I wanted nothing to do with. One of the reviews made light of the fact that, while at the bar, a bullet came through the window. Yay!

I did end up getting an amazing cheeseburger at Rossi's the day of the game, but a pretty severe frontal system kicked through and the game got rained out. Bust. Don't plan on staying there ever again.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
Anyone see Cantore was in Hoboken earlier. They shipped him down to Trenton to try to see the snow. Rofl at that. Like nobody has ever seen 3 inches of snow before in November. TWC Fail. Athena Fail.

I've only been forced to go to Trenton twice in my life. And I will only go there again if I am forced to make an appearance. And it certainly wouldn't be to go see a couple inches of snow in November.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
A good heavy band offshore getting ready to rotate in (see image in post #17).

We will see what winds that brings.

Right now we're in the teens gusting into the 20s at most.

Which of course is very good.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
Power Outage Update for my area:


Monmouth County/Ocean County Customers (households)

Moment I came back online 4 days after the storm:

285000/220000

This morning:

48000/29000

Now:

39000/29000




http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html

The other major carrier in NJ is PSE&G if you are eager to look up the stats. Their map isnt so nice.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058


Tinton Falls, NJ

Moderate snow. 33F dropping.

Winds havent been much. Nothing over the 35mph gust we had with the first wave.

Snow sticking to everything though now.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
Strange storm,winds gusting 20 to 30,but no precip as yet western suburbs of Boston.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
Quoting NJTom:
There are tens of thousands of people out there right now suffering from hypothermia in unheated, dark homes. Why would anyone consider snow to be a bonus at this point? Because it will make it easier to see at night?



Tom, with all do respect please relax.
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these bands right off the coast looks intense... NYC now with Winter Weather Advisory, will Long Island be next? Its starting to stick here in Huntington,NY.
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IT has stopped snowing here for the moment. Had a decent shower about an hour ago. In a valley here Springfield, MA
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We've gone from snow to rain with sleet mixed in. 36 degrees.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
Hi Blizz,

It was sleeting here in Princeton, NJ pretty hard over the past few hours, with large "flakes" - but now it now looks like it is turning to light snow.

- Laura
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Huge flakes falling now, starting to stick on grass and leaves. Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7416
Here in Stamford CT. still having light to moderate snow, not sticking, but ,get this, the temp. which got down to 33F about a half hour ago, has raised itself to 38F now!, A quick jump back up. Flakes have gotten bigger in size. Wind is NNE still at basically 10-20mph, with higher gusts.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7416
Snow falling here. (10 miles west of south Philly) Also in center city according to folks there. No rain mixing in. Not sticking on surfaces yet.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
Interestingly, it looks like UI had most of their out-of-state crews stay an extra day or two to deal with any potential effects from the storm. The Cherry Street movie theater lot in Milford must have 100 trucks in it.. There are also a couple dozen transformers and a few pallets of other line-worker odds and ends in place.

Pre-storm outages:
UI: 1291 customers
CL&P: 724 customers

Update: Milford is already up to 2110 (7%) outages from about 200 yesterday. 3600 total. CL&P up to 2000!
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
Wet snow and rain in White Plains NY. Steady north to NE wind around 20mph. Nothing is sticking. It's just nasty out there...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
Snow starting to fall in Newtown Square, according to my wife. Here in Lansdale/Harleysville, it has the feel of snow, mostly overcast banding clouds coming in, probably not much longer until it starts here.
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Latest 12z GFS brings very little to no QPF anywhere west of I-95. Looking at the present radar, that is very possible. This would be a large forecast bust if it verifies.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
Heavier band rotating in from the SE to NW Temp. has fallen from 39F to 34F in 20 mins. Precip. falling is mostly snow.Light to mod. in intensity. Baro. down to 29.86". Wind still NE 10-20mph., with some higher gusts. Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7416
Brooklyn, NY: Mixed light rain and snow picked up right around 11:00 a.m., winds from the North. Now getting toward Noon and blowing along about 10 mph from the North, with some gusting. Temp 38 F.
Member Since: June 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
True to the forecast discussion... we are back in a light radar echo and we warmed to 39 and is very light rain and no wind.

So it seems to be a banding event. Heavier precip will bring the wind, a couple degrees cooler, and snow. Lighter periods will be quickly warmer and rain and no wind.

Fits the on again off again nature discussed by some forecasters even going back last night.

Well...will check in later today as things progress.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
Thanks Zach. Im at 500 feet which isnt much but seems to keep me colder (usually about 5 degrees or so vs Newark as your heading up the hill on 280! I wouldnt be surprised if we woke up to 4 inches or so in the AM. Or is that being too optimistic?
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Quoting NJTom:
There are tens of thousands of people out there right now suffering from hypothermia in unheated, dark homes. Why would anyone consider snow to be a bonus at this point? Because it will make it easier to see at night?

Perhaps my statement came out interpreted a bit wrong. I was speaking for locations unaffected by the hurricane back in my area of central Pennsylvania. And obviously I don't wish any weather harm for anyone.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
radar has us in snow western suburbs of Boston,but nothing reaching the ground,going to take a while for atomosphere to moisten up,wind gusts 20 to 30 right now
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
Quoting Blizzard92:


I am talking farther inland where wet bulb temperatures are in the low 20s.Towards the coast from I-95 on east, you are right the column is very saturated and precipitation will start right away. KPHL just reported virga with their latest metar.


Yeah I know. Western edge of the shield.

Meanwhile I still question the high wind forecasts...but they have been firm with them so we cannot ignore them.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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