Nor'easter #2 looming?

By: Zachary Labe , 12:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

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152. PhillySnow
4:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
And so it begins - snowing here! (about 10 miles west of south Philly) Very light so far.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
151. GTOSnow
1:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
They are only calling for 2 inches or so where i live in Sutton, MA. The temps have been lower than forecast the last few days, 19 on Tues morning and 30 today, it has rebounded to 32 so far.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
150. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
149. Pcroton
1:32 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Oh, and HHs have found hurricane force winds in the storm. Our marine forecasts are now Hurricane Force Wind Warnings.

Inland is upgrading to Winter Storm Warnings for 3-5"+


Good grief. To think me here in the "middle" may "only" see 1-3 inches slush and 60mph winds.

Since when did the catastrophic forecast become the best of the bunch?

My goodness...the power grid is finished with this one if it verifies.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
148. Pcroton
1:30 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
The Worthless Channel has named it Athena.

If they followed their own ridiculous idea properly we'd be up to Bruce or Candy or some stupid thing.

Maybe they will have a post-winter-analysis.

Fools.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
147. MariettaMoon
1:13 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
I was surprised at the lack of comments on here when I logged on at 8pm last night. Especially with how the latest developments were shaping up.

6z NAM & 6z GFS put some 8" plus areas up in NJ and extreme SE PA. May be more difficult to accumulate due to mild ground temps but if a heavy bursy comes early, could get a nice little base going to add accumulation into that 8" range for some localized spots.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
146. PhillySnow
12:35 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Good morning! Winter Storm Warning with forecasted snow and ice here.

I'm so sorry, P, for this bizarre act of nature and how it will impact you and so many others. It's unbelievable, really. Please check in online for as long as you can.

I love the snow. I always love snow. This time that joy will be muted by concern about what's happening in coastal areas. Everyone please stay safe.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
145. Pcroton
11:53 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting goofyrider:
Temps low 40's all night.  


Interesting. We plummeted last evening and then hours later shot up. 33F around 7PM or so.. 39F around 10PM or so. 42 at some point overnight. 40 now, trending downwards.

Between watching satellite imagery late last night and that odd warmup I had the sinking feeling the storm was going to come right up the coast into the worst spot possible.

Even our best case scenario forecast, the eastern outliers, would have given us 45mph winds and heavy snow.

There was no winning this one. In ten days Nature has taken a 2-0 lead on us.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
144. Pcroton
11:36 AM GMT on November 07, 2012

Wind has just begun to pick up this morning. A few gusts around 25-30. To show how fragile everything is the house next door had a piece of flashing peel away already - just illustrating that it was an unseen damaged piece from "Sandy"

We're in for it. Let's just hope the fact that thousands of out of state workers are here to deal with it. There is no wait only the wait for the weather to calm. Unfortunately they won't be able to work until late Thursday at the earliest....and that would be to inspect. Friday to begin repairs.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
143. Pcroton
11:34 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Tinton Falls, NJ

40F and dropping again after an overnight.. HIGH!? of 42 after 33 late last evening. Uhhh well, yeah on that one. *scratch head*

Forecast is a bad one... add 5mph in the wind numbers and take out accumulations for the beaches:

HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 AM EST THURSDAY

TODAY
RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION
UP TO 1 INCH. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS 25 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...INCREASING TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

TONIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP
TO 1 INCH. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
142. 1900hurricane
6:04 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
This buoy looks to be pretty close to the Nor'easter's center at the moment. The next report should put the pressure below 1000 mb.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
141. anduril
4:54 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Hey blizz what happened to the forecast today??!?!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
140. goofyrider
4:01 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Temps low 40's all night.  
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2742
139. 1900hurricane
3:38 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
00Z NAM accumulated snowfall @ 36 hours:

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
138. Gaara
3:04 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Not liking the 00Z nam at all, no sirree Bob. If it verifies it appears to be approaching worst-case scenario for some of the hardest-hit areas.

21Z tomorrow. Thankfully it dies down a little prior to the Thursday morning landfall:
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
137. wxgeek723
1:44 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Winter Weather Advisory!

Got down to 28F today. Expecting a slushy inch of snow here.

Be safe P.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3486
136. cicadaknot
1:42 AM GMT on November 07, 2012

NAM 4km simulated reflectvity. Check out the eye like feature.
Member Since: July 17, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
135. Pcroton
1:38 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Tinton Falls, NJ

So after tanking to 33F we popped back up to 39. Odd stuff.

Meanwhile depending on who you listen to or trust. We could be in for 60mph+ or perhaps "just" 45mph. We could be in for anywhere from a slushy inch or three...to as much as six inches now.

Getting out of hand. I'm taking the high road on all. Expect a nasty storm. Good enough.



As to the models...the NAM and GFS almost mirror each other with that well known path of a nor'easter getting just so far north along the NJ coastline, then looping back on itself then pulling out to sea.

It's a common one for the strongest. Anyone remember the one that did it so many years ago and dropped 8" of snow in Central Park in 2 hours when it did the loop up there? I think they got 27" total for that storm if I recall or was it 21... regardless the LOOP is not an anomaly it is quite common with the severe lows.

I dunno what to expect. We're in winter mode we don't until until 12 hours prior.

Getting close....and it's not looking too good no matter which solution you choose now.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
134. 1900hurricane
12:52 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting PattyNorthShoreLI:
how about that NAM Model? As ridiculous as possible.

Yeah, the latest NAM run and run of its derivatives (NNM, ARW, etc) are pretty far out there this evening. Normally, I'd say throw them out, but we are so close to the event that big model shifts like this are quite unusual. For what it's worth, I think its most recent runs are wrong, but I wouldn't completely rule them out unless/until the 00Zs show a much more tame solution.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
133. originalLT
12:50 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
I see what you mean, Pcroton, it really seems to be "hugging" the coast. At least on radar presentation.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7448
132. Pcroton
12:10 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Ya know maybe I am just overly tired but watching satellite imagery it sure seems this storm is heading towards a close to the coast solution.

I dunno what to think anymore. Too damn tired.

We get what we get.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
131. Pcroton
10:29 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Down to 37F now. Going quick. Newest forecast out... do we just laugh or what? This is crazy.


HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
EST THURSDAY

TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATION. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
130. NEwxguy
9:46 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
yeh,models have trended by west a little,so the back and forth continues,looks to be a nasty storm with a little bit of everything,definitely potential for some damage in areas that don't need it.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15639
129. Pcroton
9:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
40F and dropping fast in Tinton Falls, NJ

Are we heading towards more snow here than we know?


Storm wise...models east then models west then this model this and that model that.

I look at the discussions and forecasts and they are steady - dangerous storm with high winds.

This isn't a small storm with a tight core of winds. It's not going to matter much unless we're completely off base here and it ends up 350 miles east of NJ come evening...and it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Inside the 70/40 benchmark? We get whacked. Remember that.

So as I said earlier we may be beyond critiquing models and in the "we will see when it gets here" phase of things.

Be good folks. Looks like us south will awake to rain and wind now.


Birds were very active yesterday and this morning and then they were gone in an instant by noon. Nature feels it again and is rushing to hide.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
128. NEwxguy
4:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Lt,yeh,didn't mean to make it sound like we would get nothing,I think the brunt is going to be on Cape Cod and the islands,in fact I might see a couple of inches of snow late tomorrow.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15639
127. originalLT
4:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
I don't think its trending that far East where you will get nothing. Where you are should be a pretty decent storm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7448
126. NEwxguy
2:29 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
chilly morning here in easter mass. 21 degrees.
Interesting to see most of the models trending east.Looks like I might see a couple of inches of snow when this thing starts.hey,may not see much of anything if this thing keeps trending east.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15639
125. goofyrider
2:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
@ P C  post 104  OH of Mantoloking Inlet  see the former PRR causeway under present day RT 35
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2742
124. PhillySnow
2:12 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
We woke up to 26F here. Colder than the forecast, which was 31F.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
123. Luisport
2:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Forecasted surge = 11' at Kings Point

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?pag e=stn®ion=ne&type=both&stn=nyking

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?pag e=map®ion=ne
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
122. Luisport
2:09 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Cool WV Loop showing the trough digging down.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/50 0mbwv.html
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
121. originalLT
1:34 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Yeah, "P", I feel or hope these winds speeds are a little high. And you are right, .."we will see what we shall get, when it gets here." Each storm has it's own "personality", by that meaning, it's wind field, intensity, and precipitation coverage. We'll see how it pans out.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7448
120. originalLT
1:29 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Hi Pcroton, no, it was alittle colder than predicted. I had the dogs out at mid-night, and it was totally clear, with little to no wind.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7448
119. Pcroton
1:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Wow LT. Was that expected?

Clouds kept us warm two nights ago - had 40 instead of 30.

We bottomed at 30F this morning once it was done slipping.



Anyone else looking at everything this morning and feel the forecasted winds may be a bit too high?

This storm is getting to the point where it's a "we will see what we get..when it gets here" event IMO.

As is the case with many of the nor'easters that develop this way - we just don't know what we have until it's formed - and by the time it has formed it's generally on our doorstep.

Big sigh, big shrug.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
118. originalLT
1:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Got down to 24F overnight here in Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7448
117. Pcroton
12:13 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting Matlack:


Some of the Aerials I saw today were amazing as the force of the surge was well documented. Had to work Sunday doing assessments of our systems and was in some of the hardest hit areas. So sad to see all the belongings at the curb.


And the footage keeps coming and coming and is worse and worse each time as people get into the restricted areas.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
116. Pcroton
11:48 AM GMT on November 06, 2012
Good Morning. TF, NJ. 31F and still slipping.


Models this, models that, NWS says bah to it all...


WEDNESDAY
RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. VERY
WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT.



===

The coastal version which serves roughly inside of 5 miles to the coast for our county has the same forecast, minus accumulation, and winds up 5mph across the board.

It would seem we're in a bit of trouble here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
115. PattyNorthShoreLI
3:27 AM GMT on November 06, 2012
how about that NAM Model? As ridiculous as possible.
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
114. colortheworld
2:54 AM GMT on November 06, 2012
First model fail of the season? lol
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
113. Matlack
2:50 AM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/11/be fore_and_after_sandy_photos.html#incart_maj-story- 1" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">before_and_after_sandy_photos.html


Some of the Aerials I saw today were amazing as the force of the surge was well documented. Had to work Sunday doing assessments of our systems and was in some of the hardest hit areas. So sad to see all the belongings at the curb.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
112. PengSnow
12:47 AM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting PengSnow:


Correction i meant to say 100-200 miles east of the current track



Looks like the locals might be right again.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
111. Zachary Labe
11:47 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
It would be nice to wake up to a reduced wind forecast.

Gusting 35 inland, 50 at the coast.

Instead of...well, what the high wind watch came up with.

Yet, I don't trust any one model run. They flip flop back and forth. Can't trust the latest just because it does what we hope or sounds good...as they are prone to just flip right back to the other solution. Especially on these winter scenarios as we well know.

Hope for continued eastward shift. Regardless we're going to get hit.

The ridge axis out west is less amplified and situated farther east than originally expected. The upper air data is also being well-sampled currently and with all guidance moving east today, there is substantial evidence the low will track farther east than expected in the last few days. But I guess we'll see; tonights 0z runs should solidify a forecast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
110. upst8ny12764
11:29 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Will be patiently waiting for the snow map.
Well, maybe not patiently, but Ill be waiting.

Should I get the plow and sander ready?

Narrowsburg NY 12764
Member Since: January 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
109. Pcroton
10:55 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
It would be nice to wake up to a reduced wind forecast.

Gusting 35 inland, 50 at the coast.

Instead of...well, what the high wind watch came up with.

Yet, I don't trust any one model run. They flip flop back and forth. Can't trust the latest just because it does what we hope or sounds good...as they are prone to just flip right back to the other solution. Especially on these winter scenarios as we well know.

Hope for continued eastward shift. Regardless we're going to get hit.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
108. Zachary Labe
10:40 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Model trends today include a less intense surface low and a track farther east. That is definitely good news for coastal regions.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
107. Pcroton
10:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Just got word one reason Sea Bright, NJ is completely off limits is because recovery began today of those who chose to stay behind. According to an individual that lives nearby and is somewhat involved: "A supply of body bags was delivered today."

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
106. Pcroton
9:07 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Annndddd...here we go, again.


...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO
60 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 65 MPH, MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.


* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS THAT WERE HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS STORM.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT NOON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

* IMPACTS...STRUCTURES AND TREES WEAKENED BY LAST WEEKS STORM MAY
BE FURTHER DAMAGED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS. THIS CAN
ALSO RESULT IN RENEWED POWER OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
WHERE THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE. DEBRIS
FROM LAST WEEKS STORM COULD BECOME A HAZARD DURING THIS NEW
STORM, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO BECOME AIRBORNE.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
105. Luisport
6:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
35 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@MikeMasco @JacquiJeras lowest GFS surface pressure from full-resolution files is about 978 mb at 00Z on Thursday. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265510378480467 968/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
104. Pcroton
5:05 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Local forecasters starting to put their opinions in play. News12NJ says 50mph+, 2-4 inches rain, 5 foot surge. All in all regardless of opinions of weaker or stronger it's going to be a bad storm in it's own right affecting a decimated region.


Some insane before and after imagery from my region:
before_and_after_sandy_photos.html
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
103. Pcroton
4:13 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Residents of Seaside Park NJ gathering at Bayville HS to get permits to get to their homes and recover what they can today.

They will not be allowed back onto the barrier island for six to eight months.


HWO, Mount Holly, NJ: (for southern NJ)

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVELS, HEAVY RAIN AND SOLID MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. PLEASE BE
AWARE THAT STRUCTURES OR TREES THAT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY SANDY
WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO FURTHER DAMAGE FROM THIS NOR`EASTER.

-------

HWO, New York, NY: (for northern NJ)

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TRI-STATE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS...RAIN/WINTRY PRECIPITATION...COASTAL
FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION WILL RESULT FROM THIS
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


---

Fox News Article:

The National Weather Service predicted Sunday that a Nor'easter that could include gusts of up to 55 mph is likely to reach the area by Wednesday and could compound the havoc brought by last week's violent weather.

"Prepare for more outages," advised weather service meteorologist Joe Pollina. "Stay indoors. Stock up again."

He said the new storm wouldn't be nearly as strong as Sandy, but could pack winds "stronger than usual, even strong for a Nor'easter."

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260
102. Pcroton
2:00 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Drier then?

1-2 inches rain instead of 2-3 (inland-coast values) would certainly make a difference.

Mount Holly thinking wind advisories inland, warnings coastal.

Translates loosely to up to 39mph gusts inland, up to 58mph gusts coast. I think the weaker solution would yield 35 inland, 50 coast gusts - and stronger would be 50 inland, 65 coast in gusts. Anywhere inbetween those values is of course not helpful to the situation low or high will carry enough power to shove some leaning trees over and drop broken limbs, etc.


Just not a good read...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER LOCATIONS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME WARNING LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE; IT RESULTS IN ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IT
RESULTS IN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS WEST (ALL OF WHICH WOULD NOT CREATE A
MAJOR INLAND FLOODING CONCERN).
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7260

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