Significant Impacts to the East Coast; October 29-31, 2012

By: Zachary Labe , 1:39 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy (Nor'easter/Hybrid Tropical Event; October 29-31, 2012

Satellite Picture...

(Courtesy of Penn State EWall)

Early Thoughts...
The upcoming storm event holds many unique characteristics that not only make the forecast difficult, but also will prove challenges for impacts along the entire eastern seaboard. Hurricane Sandy is beginning to charge due north and will continue on a similar trajectory until it begins to hook northwest. This is a very rare and perhaps unprecedented track, which will make any comparison to previous storm systems quite difficult. Given the unique jet stream structure, Sandy is actually expected to strengthen despite encountering land and losing warm core tropical characteristics. This again is very unusual; a few ensemble guidance models depict a nearly 20mb+ drop in surface pressure during this period. The track remains highly uncertain, but we can begin to narrow down the width of the cone to a narrower 200-300mi or so.

While Sandy remains several days away before making landfall, this blog will highlight general threat areas and precautions that need to be taken at this point in time. Given my upcoming schedule, I was only able to put out a full blog this Friday morning. But you can expect me to be actively posting in comments below through Wednesday.

It is important to understand that the location of the landfall will be critical particularly for coastal flooding and storm surge. Certain locations are much worse off for this threat depending on the track of the center of circulation. For the time being, it looks like a track will lead itself somewhere between Ocean City, MD and Sandy Hook, NJ. A few ensembles are farther north towards Long Island and New York City, but given the strength of the block, I am leaning towards a landfall very close to Atlantic City, New Jersey (ACY). The area currently under the highest threat for the combination of wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding is the region from central New Jersey to northern New Jersey. This area may likely be just northeast of the center of circulation and therefore will be the strongest quadrant of the storm. Given the slow movement, the strong easterly flow will pool water up and along the coast with devasting effects from beach erosion. More on threats and the synoptic setup can be found below.

Remember, the unique setup brings in itself a load of additional problems for areas in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. The forecast remains uncertain, although the track cone will begin to be narrowed down by Saturday. Stay tuned to the latest updates and for areas along the coast, be sure to heed to local authorities and be prepared to evacuate low lying areas. While Sandy may loose her tropical status, the combination of an anomalous jet structure and bizarre track will be almost as if a stronger and larger hurricane were actually making landfall on the coast. I have seen a great deal of hype by not only the media, but also other meteorological authorities. These statements must be taken with a grain of salt. This is not a worst case scenario and likely not a crippling event. Bottom line is that impacts will be felt over a large region and impact one of the largest concentrations of metropolis in the United States. But conditions are not expected to be any worse than previous destructive nor'easters such as the storm of December of 1992 and Hurricane Hazel. This storm is not going to feature the same variables as the deepening hurricane of 1938 in New England, so impacts will be lessened. All in all though I would not be surprised to hear this is a 1-2 billion dollar disaster with impacts worse than that of last year's Hurricane Irene.

Current Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Daily impacts...
Keep in mind this is not a tightly wound hurricane. Given the hybrid structure of the storm, impacts will be large and felt over a wide region of the Northeast. In fact tropical storm force sustained winds will be felt possibly from Massachusetts to as far south as North Carolina. Even hurricane force wind gusts may stretch a bit inland. The precipitation shield and associated spiral bands will stretch all the way as far west as Michigan and Ohio. Impacts will be greatly magnified as depending on the exact angle of landfall. Should Sandy make landfall coming from the due west, impacts would be lessened for coastal flooding due to the trajectory of the winds and pooling of water. But under a northwest angle (more likely scenario) water will flood many of the bays and sounds along the Middle Atlantic courtesy of a substantial and consistent easterly and northeasterly flow.

Heavy rain- Flash flood guidance (FFG) is relatively high over the entire Northeast. Despite consistent rain chances each week over the region, rainfall has been relatively near normal. The wettest areas are across the Middle Atlantic, particularly in Pennsylvania. But even in this region, FFG is pretty high. Nevertheless some areas will receive over 6in+ of rain and that will certainly cause at least urban flooding. Sandy will not be one consistent rain shield that is common in nor'easters. It will likely take a structure of a hybrid storm with multiple wide bands that will contain the strongest winds and heaviest rain. The heaviest bands will be to the west of the center of circulation. Currently the heavy rain axis looks to position itself from the Delmarva stretching northeast to northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Highest QPF totals will likely reach 10in+ especially in parts of Delaware, Maryland, and southern New Jersey. Keep in mind the tropical origins of the system despite the time of year being late October. Elsewhere over the Northeast a widespread 2-4in of rain can be expected. The highest threat of flooding will exist as flash flooding and urban areas along with creeks and streams. Major river flooding is not expected at this time given the relatively low levels present. Should QPF increase in the northern tributaries of major rivers such as the Susquehanna, Schuykill, Juniata, and Delaware Rivers, then this threat may increase.

Winds- A tight pressure gradient exists and is highly evident on all upper air and surface maps. A 1035mb high pressure sits to the north near the Gulf of Maine and an anomalous block of upper level heights exists near Greenland. This gradient will enhance the winds over the region from Sunday. Also noticeable on upper level maps is an impressive jet structure on the synoptic scale. A screaming 120knot jet streak near the right front entrance quadrant along with a tight area of divergence aloft will allow for an expanding wind shield that will stretch several hundred miles. Tropical storm force sustained winds can be expected well away from the center of circulation. The strong winds can be be expected just northwest of the center, where gusts may exceed 70mph. Given the time of year, many leaves are off the trees, so wind damage will be less for foliage than if had this had occured earlier in the season. Nonetheless, widespread power outages (millions of people possible) may be expected stretching from New England to the Delmarva. Major cities including Philadelphia, New York City, and the Baltimore to Washington DC corridor can expect maximum gusts upwards of 60-70mph. Sustained winds though will only around 40mph during their height. Along the coast hurricane force gusts may occur.

Severe Weather- Given the time of year, there is significantly less instability both at the surface and aloft. But there remains a great deal of lift and shear, that may allow for a few quick spin-up tornadoes to occur. The area that may under the gun for this threat will stretch from Norfolk, VA north through southern New Jersey. It will be difficult to pick up these areas of rotation using our current NEXRAD radar system, but these possible weak tornadoes will be most likely in the spiral bands as they make landfall on the coast. Farther inland, the threat will decrease due to colder air aloft and less elevated instability.

Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding- I would be getting very concerned if I were living anywhere along the coast from Virginia to Connecticut. This long-duration event in combination with full moon high tides will plague the region with significant coastal flooding and storm surge. It is expected that water levels will exceed Irene values by several feet. I think the highest threat for flooding will be along the Long Island Sound especially in the northwest corner. There water may rise upwards of 8-10 feet and be more representative of a category 2 hurricane than an extratropical cyclone. Also significant flooding can be expected along the barrier islands of New Jersey where many of the sounds and bays will flood as east and northeast winds pool water into the narrow features. This will also be a long duration event given the slow movement as Sandy begins its phase with the trough and hooks west and northwest. Impressive seas and wave heights can be expected, and I am definitely interested in seeing some buoy heights for areas just off the coast. Locations from the Long Island Sound down through low-lying areas in Delaware need to be prepared for evacuations. Farther south into the northern Outerbanks, water levels will only rise 1-3 feet. Major beach erosion can be expected and may cost several million dollars to repair after the event.

Snow- I will admit I have not been following the snowfall forecast as closely as other factors for this event. But it is likely the some peaks along the Appalachians receive a healthy 12-18in of wet snow. Elevations above 3500ft will have the highest threat. Latest models have been consistent in indicating H85 thermals to fall below 0C in association with a cold pocket and Sandy becomes entrapped in the trough. Heavy snow will fall possibly even into a few valley locations into West Virginia and maybe Ohio. Western Maryland is also under the threat zone in Garret County, and perhaps into the southern Laurel Highlands in southwestern Pennsylvania. Most of these locations have already had the leaves fall off the trees, so damage to foliage will be less than the October Nor'easter of 2011. Power outages though can be expected given snow ratios will be at 10:1 or slightly less. Once Sandy begins to pull to the northeast by mid to late week and the trough becomes situated over the area, a northwest flow will allow for widespread lake effect snow showers and flurries over the Northeast especially in the favored snow belts. Many areas will see their first flakes of snow in the November 1-3 time frame from just east of the Appalachians on westward.

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"


"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


Current Surface Map...

(Courtesy of Penn State EWall)

Synoptic Discussion...
A sharp cold front is plowing through the midwest and noticed on surface maps by a clear 40F temperature drop. It will continue to march east in association with a steep trough that will begin to become negatively tilted. Anomalous upper level heights near Greenland will act as a block in correspondance with a deep negative NAO to slow down the long waves and general flow. A 1035mb high pressure near Nova Scotia will remain generally stationary over the next few days. Meanwhile a hurricane near the Bahamas, Sandy, will continue track at near 5 degrees north through the day on Friday and Saturday. Increasing vertical shear will begin to tear Sandy apart. This is already noticeable on the first look at this morning's visible satellite given a relatively ragid looking cirrus deck with two concentrated areas of convection. The latest hurricane hunter reports indicate max sustained winds may have dropped to 80 knots aloft with surface winds at sub 60 knots. This is slightly weaker than most operational models have it at this point.

As Sandy continues to move north, she will begin to take on extratropical characteristics and form a hybrid storm. An fast jet streak near 120 knots in association with a vibrant low level jet will help to capture and phase Sandy as she reaches above 30N. Noticeable and impressive divergence aloft in combination with an area of baroclinicity will actually help to strengthen Sandy despite losing its tropical features. This hybrid system is forecasted to drop surface pressure to as low as 960mb as it makes landfall and moves inland. The timing of the phase is critical to the landfall location. Sandy does have an easterly component given the natural forcing of the prevailing westerlies and coriolis, but given the synoptic setup, she will eventually turn to the northwest. I am favoring a landfall just north of Atlantic City, but it is possible for a Long Island hit given this easterly component.

Rising PWATs at near +3SD, given climatology, will allow tropical moisture to flood the region. Meanwhile to the west, continental polar air will leak into the area turning some precipitation into snow across the higher elevations of the western Appalachians.

Sandy will feature a large wind shield and will be a long duration event therefore giving way to high storm surge. Peak height may be over 10ft in a few isolated locations, which may cause major problems given the geographic structure of the Middle Atlantic coastline. This threat is highest from New Jersey up to the Long Island Sound.

As she begins to become captured by the trough, she will slowly begin to move west then north and northeast under a retrograding motion. Therefore wind, surge, and precipitation will plague the northeast for multiple days before coming to an end by mid week.

Current Water Vapor Loop...

(Courtesy of Penn State EWall)

Operational and Ensemble Forecast...
We still have a relatively large spread in the operational and ensemble models. The cone of landfall for guidance is as far south as Norfolk, VA to Long Island, with most models in between favoring the Delmarva up through central New Jersey. Models are having a difficulty in pinpointing the exact timing of the phase with the trough and the strength of the upstream blocking. I am presently favoring a track just in between the ECMWF and GFS. Given the highly parameterized ECMWF and its higher resolution, it lends me to believe that it is overestimating the actual phase (occuring to early) and therefore a bit too south in its track. I also believe the angle of the trajectory on the ECMWF is slightly too westerly and that Sandy will track a tad farther east before eventually turning northwest. The GFS on the other hand is farther north with its expected landfall, but has the tendency to underestimate the blocking to the north which acts like a well and will prevent Sandy from escaping to the east.

The tropical models such as the HWRF and GFDL will have a difficult time in forecasting Sandy given the similarities to a middle latitude cyclone and the complex jet dynamics. They can pretty much be discarded for this event. Ensembles will be very helpful in the forecast for Sandy and both the ECMWF and GFS's associated ensemble means are both just north of their operational partner's forecast.

Trends I would look for on Friday and Saturday include the strength of the block and the timing of the trough as it becomes negatively tilted. I am predicting we see the ECMWF shift a bit to the north in its forecast track as it may be underestimating the easterly component for Sandy. While I am presently favoring a landfall near Atlantic City, NJ or a tad north, I cannot rule out a landfall along Long Island. I do not expect the landfall to occur any further south than Delaware.

Forecast Model Links
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

Severe Weather Links
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

Flooding Links
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

***Stay tuned and discuss below! Please... when reporting observations, include your exact location in every comment. It makes it very helpful for others to prepare for what they can expect in a later time.

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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1093. Luisport
12:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2012
17 minBrian McNoldy‏@BMcNoldy

Still looks like a very significant Nor'easter for middle of next week. Severe coastal flooding, heavy snow & rain. http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/264343761977487 360/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1092. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
1091. Pcroton
11:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2012
P, Tinton Falls, NJ
46F this morning instead of forecasted 38. Very good news as many still in the dark.


GOOFY - good to see you check in I know you must be exhausted. All our EMS/FIRE/EOM that live within just a few houses in each direction in this neighborhood are just drained from trying to keep the peace and responding to peoples emergencies.

Did my morning speed walk to Wawa at the corner, felt good to put a steady 3 mile stretch in over the usual mile...head clearing until I got halfway there. At 615am the line for gas was already over a mile long. People scuffling and police responded to put an end to it. (They needed to be there in more force than one officer from the start!)

Not much to buy but I did score some half and half for the morning coffee.

I am well stocked but a few people were mentioning a couple supermarkets opened up so either today or tomorrow I may venture for some more delicate items now that we are steady with power. I am in good shape but it is a question of others who arent---storming the stores and causing problems. I dealt with that once I will not deal with it again unless necessary.

Speaking of power I had a surge last night, went and checked online, to see the county totals drop about 19,000 which was great to see. I hope they do not screw up and connect a grid that has failure as they can take the system down accidentally.


Do I read right? Honestly don't have the desire to model watch right now...but is it for real that these things have been consistent for 18 hours now slamming us with a nor'easter? Ordinarily 40mph winds would be fine but everything is very fragile right now.


In the coastal towns that were getting fires due to gas breaks they decided to cap the entire towns from the main supply (uh, what took so long, really...) but then to purge the system they went for the killer: Flood the pipes with water.

While that purged the gas and stopped the explosions and fires what was said is the water will destroy the pipes quickly - and these towns, even the homes that are easily moved back into, won't have natural gas: They have to tear up and rebuild the system from scratch. Also this means homes had water shooting into them and their stoves and furnaces - so this means homes untouched by damage - are now damaged because of this braindead scheme.

Ridiculous some of the things going on.

Monmouth County down to 223000 outages from the 275000 I saw when I first got back power (who knows how high it was for real) and I see Ocean is doing much better down to 135000 from 220000 I had seen.

So very quick progress is being made. Christie said the out of state workers are in overdrive and it would take 3-4 days for most to get it back now instead of weeks if we were left to do it on our own.

Christie also said there is no shortage of supplies but until power is restored we cannot deliver to stores and stations. So in a way the moment it looks good - we are mere hours from deliveries in needed areas.

I could type forever...so I'll just end the check-in here.

Be good, folks.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5157
1090. Luisport
10:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2012
Business Insider‏@businessinsider

Here's The Depressing NBC Segment On Staten Island That Could Change The Way The World Sees Hurricane Sandy http://read.bi/RyOg0B
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1089. TheF1Man
5:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2012
So glad to see that everyone has reported in. Over 250,000 customers still out in CT (# of meters not people). My house lost it monday still not back as many of the roads are closed. LT, there is talk that some schools be closed parts of next week as well.

Business as usual here at college, waiting for this semester to be over with. How is your year going Blizz?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
1088. originalLT
2:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2012
Just finished going over the few hundred posts that I missed during the storm on the 29th, between the hours of about 5:30pm and midnight. Being in my particular area gave me a real false impression of the storm, my immediate area was really spared, no power loss and no trees down. While my computer was out, I was watching on TV, what was unfolding around me and it was shocking, especially for NYC, southern part of Long Island and of course in NJ. Seeing what went on and what happened, I have to count my blessings. My heart goes out to all affected. We are sending out a donation to the American Red Cross. BTW, when I say my Immediate area, I mean my neighborhood only. Just a quarter to half mile away from my house one can really start to see the wide-spread damage. Both my wife and daughter are teachers, and School has been cancelled for the whole week. Just a thought, can you imagine if this whole event took place one week later? What incredible impacts it would have had on the National Elections!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7067
1087. doom22015
12:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2012
I drove the PA Turnpike today from Breezewood west. Drizzle/light rain much of the way, with snow mixing in in Bedford county/Laurel highlands. Nice white hillsides in that area.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1086. originalLT
11:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Hi Pcroton, glad you are OK. Drove up to Vallhala NY today on business, and that cute little town was without power, many trees down there. Just down the road from there, the Kensico Dam park area was closed off. In your post, #1071, your last line is most "chilling" and very true.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7067
1085. goofyrider
11:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
PC Howdy.   Glad to hear you, back see my earlier posts.     Still pulling 24 hr shifts here.  Last night, first time able to get more than 3hrs at a clip.  Daughter off from work.  She went to friends house on Ocean Av in Avon to see what could be salvaged.  It looked as if water came up to chest height and floated furniture around then dropped load of goo over everything.  Clothes had mold growing.  Total loss.  One story but will be repeated many times.  My CO meter has been 0 most of the time.  Today it has jumped to 15.  Checked with buds in FD and he had 17.  He has been on a dozen CO alarms and wondered if unit was functioning because they always read 0. Hard wired alarms seem to have batteries with 12-24 hour capacity with loss of power.  LATER
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2646
1084. hurigo
9:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Both PCs checked in today. Thank you! So sorry about what you are enduring, but appreciate your reports
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
1083. Luisport
9:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Just eight days after Sandy’s historic landfall near Atlantic City flooded hundreds of miles of coastline, and left nearly 8 million people without power, the Northeast U.S. could be in for another dose of Nature’s fury by the middle of next week.

Weather models are in agreement on a significant storm shaping up early in the week, then heading northeast along the coast and into New England. Unlike Sandy, this storm won’t have a name or tropical origins, but rather, fit the typical Nor’easter mold.


Two model’s depiction of the surface winds next Wednesday afternoon. The approximate track of the Low pressure from the Carolinas to its position on Wednesday is overlaid.

This storm will almost certainly *NOT* bring the same level of disastrous impacts to the region, but could easily bring unwelcome heavy rain and snow, strong winds, and of course, storm surge and coastal flooding from North Carolina all the way up to Maine -including New Jersey and New York. People in these areas are no strangers to potent Nor’easters, but they usually don’t have to face one immediately after a hurricane.

I will continue to monitor the long-range models for changes, but when the leading ones agree on something just five days away, it is a good sign that they’re onto something
.
http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2012/11/01/potent ial-big-storm-for-northeast-u-s-next-week
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1082. Luisport
9:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Brian McNoldy‏@BMcNoldy

Potential Big Storm For Northeast U.S. Next Week http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2012/11/01/potenti al-big-storm-for-northeast-u-s-next-week/
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1081. porkchop85
8:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Just reporting in last time I was able to post was before the storm. I am still without power but I have a generator and plenty of gas in the cars to siphon from. Got gas today thankfully there wasn't a line though there were lines in Bordentown and Burlington. Lost trees though none did much damage. I am thankful to be alive but very depressed at the damage I see at the shore. I have pictures of me at seaside as a baby :( Even though the crowd changed and the town changed I still would go every year.

The school district that I work for is still without power hopefully we can get back to work soon. At night I work for a different district and they opened today. Cell service is spotty but getting alittle better. Thats all I have for now hope everyone is well and staying safe.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
1080. Walshy
8:33 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Beech Mountain, NC only got 12.5 inches. But look at these drifts. Now imagine the places that got 3 feet with the same winds if not higher.

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
1079. Luisport
8:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2012

Brian McNoldy‏@BMcNoldy

@RyanMaue @islivingston Track verification for the 2012 Atlantic storms so far... GFS noses ahead at days 3 &4. http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/264099600892313 600/photo/1/large


3 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@BMcNoldy @islivingston Blake suggested this earlier in the season -- pleased to see it has kept up. 4-5 days, um not good.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1078. Luisport
8:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF temps for Thursday morning & very high QPF suggests mostly coastal heavy rain but piles of interior snow http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/264097910919143 426/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1077. Luisport
8:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

After discussing new model data w/ Meteorologist Tom Moore @ TWC an impactful northeast nor'easter may develop for the middle of next week.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1076. Luisport
8:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX
SINKING INTO QUEBEC AND A SERIES OF POTENT SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN US FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS RESULTING IN AN POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A MODIFYING POLAR AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.
BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THESE SHORTWAVES FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY
ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF COASTAL LOWS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD
FRONT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE STILL SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW/S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS
HINTING TOWARDS A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGIES
FOR MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW AT THAT TIME...WITH GFS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION ON THIS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ONLY
TREND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND INCREASE POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT...HIGHEST
EAST. JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...IF LOW PRESSURE MADE A CLOSE ENOUGH
APPROACH...ENOUGH COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIP ON THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1075. Luisport
7:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
5 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Euro on the warpath.. again developing positive NAO should block storm escape, send it north. Phase 2 MJO also! http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/264092641 216581632/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1074. Luisport
7:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Business Insider‏@businessinsider

A Nor'easter Winter Storm Could Hit The East Coast By Election Day by @DinaSpector http://read.bi/SAQ1yI
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1073. NEwxguy
7:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
sure looks like a coastal storm next week,mostly effecting right along the coast of the mid-atlantic up to coastal New England,still depends on how far west this moves,don't be surprised if we see some snow interior new england.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
1072. Luisport
6:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Quoting Luisport:
5 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

There is some indication that a more typical storm for Nov. will form along the East Coast next week. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/montior ing-east-coast-storm-potential-next-week/955616
Please Pcroton what do you think about this?
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1071. Pcroton
6:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Hi folks. Thankfully being next to several main roads that have high tension transmission lines...has it's benefit. We are back.

Braved a grocery store that rumored to be operating on generator. Wasn't fun but even though I was already well prepared I stocked up on a full month's worth of canned goods.

County is still about 80-85% without power. Shore towns 100% and are unihabitable or decimated.

Too much to list as to what happened and I am sure video and pics are coming in from the region.

In some cases some of the footage looks like Texas post-Ike with just sand remaining where there were roads and homes, like Katrina with houses with water up to rooftops and people being evaced by helicopter. Major fires due to gas main breaks.

As for me, my neighborhood did well. My house in particular one of the few intact. Lost three trees but not a big deal as our neighborhood is 20 years old give or take so the trees aren't monsters.

Many homes lose whole walls of siding, gutters, few shingles, decorative couplas on top of garages became projectiles.

One street just a few branches, next street 200 feet up all the trees down... so there was some selective damage. I look out one window, you would never even know anything happened. Look out another, different story.

Driving around getting easier but still many roads blocked by large trees or downed powerlines. As I said most everyone out of power.

Food is scarce, fuel is scarce, fights breaking out at these places.

Luckily I over prepared to begin with and over did it when I ventured out - which is well something I'd rather not do again.

So, things are good for me, for others...not so much.

Cell towers beaten up so very limited service. I cant make calls but can text - sometimes.

Land lines gone due to damages.


I'm no expert but at it's height we were sustained 50-60 gusting 80. I think there may have been a few gusts that could have been pushing 85 or even 90. Most observation stations failed due to power disruptions. There was a spell around 9pm-ish where it really REALLY ramped up - perhaps landfall/winds spreading out, that sort of thing - or maybe it was that tongue of convection that spread outwards NW from the core as she neared the coast.

Severe storm surge took most homes within a block of the ocean in low lying towns. Just incredible damage. Some local estimates are talking about 50B in damages... in our county ALONE.


Well, that's it for now.

If you go to News12 New Jersey website they have some helicopter footage of some of the extreme wreckage.

I will check in from time to time but honestly...there isn't anything to discuss. This thing is far from overwith as the area has run dry on everything. Utilities such as water and sewage continue on generator power. So uncertainty is pretty bad around here especially for the underprepared, who wont have basic service for weeks, and have no supplies to get because there are none.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5157
1070. Gaara
6:11 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Correction:

A ruptured gas main caught fire Thursday afternoon, damaging a bridge over Interstate 95 and causing a traffic nightmare for motorists.

The fire started when an electrical and telephone line snapped off a utility pole and fell onto I-95. The sparking wires then ignited brush near the High Street bridge.

A 12-inch gas line underneath the bridge ruptured, causing the gas to ignite. Although there was no explosion, flames shot out from the ruptured line

Capt. Tom Thornberg, fire department spokesman, said there was concern that the line would explode. Firefighters, however, we able to control the blaze and allow the gas to burn off from the line.


This is about a quarter mile from my house. Great!
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 355
1069. Luisport
5:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
5 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

There is some indication that a more typical storm for Nov. will form along the East Coast next week. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/montior ing-east-coast-storm-potential-next-week/955616
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1068. Gaara
4:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Brush fire in milford, CT.. Both side of I95 shut down for about 3 miles. Hopefully this clears up by the time I leave work. 15 and the post road are both gridlocked as a result

Link

Traffic cameras

Link

Link

Link
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 355
1067. Luisport
4:27 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/26403974811550 1056/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1066. Luisport
2:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

MT @accu_henry: Still concern for rain & wind along the East Coast next week. Extended period of dry weather comes in afterward.

Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1065. Luisport
1:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2012


1 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Final landfall forecast mon am (all forecasts issued to clients first at 6:30 am) http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/263992538 824847363/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1064. Luisport
1:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell first of 9 days of forecasts centering landfall within 100 miles of NYC started Sunday, Oct 21 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/263991562 537689088/photo/1/large
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1063. Luisport
1:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Good morning all! I have been busy the last day or so catching up on everything after tracking Sandy for nearly a week, lol. I looked briefly at the next threat a few have mentioned for early next week; I do not see anything too out of the ordinary and would not be expecting a big nor'easter. If any maybe a coastal low forms late and affects parts of New England. I am not overly enthusiastic about the threat at this point.
I really hope nothing happens now. Don't forget that coast loose all the barriers against wind and sea! Anything can be bad!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1062. Zachary Labe
1:06 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Good morning all! I have been busy the last day or so catching up on everything after tracking Sandy for nearly a week, lol. I looked briefly at the next threat a few have mentioned for early next week; I do not see anything too out of the ordinary and would not be expecting a big nor'easter. If any maybe a coastal low forms late and affects parts of New England. I am not overly enthusiastic about the threat at this point.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
1061. Snowmog
12:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
We got power back in our Tiverton RI neighborhood just in time for Halloween. I think we may have got even more kids than usual because some were coming from parts of Fall River and other places that sill have no power. Glad the kids could still have fun.

Wondering how next week's storm is shaping up?
Member Since: February 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1060. Snowmog
12:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Hey ListenerVT, love your cat!!! :) she looks alot like mine.
Member Since: February 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1059. PengSnow
12:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Still raining in Pittsburgh..........drops since last Friday.............need some sun..........before the next storm??? To all be safe and have a great day!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
1058. listenerVT
3:56 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
In the midst of so much devastation, loss and sadness, a happy thought...

♡ Very excited about becoming a Grammie again in May! ♡
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
1057. listenerVT
3:52 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
WOW! Great costume! ;-)



Have the Happiest All Hallow's E'en you can!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
1056. listenerVT
3:42 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Hi everyone, I am fine, did not lose power, but about 5:30on Monday pm, my computer went dead. Have to take it to the Apple Store, here in Stamford,--but they are not open yet, no power for them. I am using my daughters lap-top, that she brought over to my house. No real damage in my immediate neighborhood, but 63% of Stamford out of power. My baro. got down to 28.68" at its lowest. Top wind gust was 62mph. for me. Will report more when I have my own computer back. Take care. LT


Sooo glad you're okay!! I came here tonight especially hoping to see a post from you!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
1055. Walshy
1:43 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
Some pretty amazing pictures are coming out of Mount Leconte, TN in this blog.

Expert hikers reporting it difficult to reach the lodge...taking 10 hours for some.

Link
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
1054. Walshy
1:32 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

You may have already posted the totals, but how did some of the lower elevation cites fare for snowfall such as Asheville and Boone, NC?


Boone got 4-6 inches with high drifts.

4 miles NE of Asheville saw 5 inches...parts of the city got much less...just the grass covered and some didn't get that. Very elevation dependent there.

Mount Leconte, TN had drifts as high as the roof tops according to Raysweather.com.

Some wind snow/drizzle in the foothills of NC. The high winds dried most of the precip up coming off east of the mountains.

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
1053. hurigo
11:01 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
And, another thing, how come no one laughed at my (hope-a-joke) about zombie's walking. After all it is Halloween.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
1052. hurigo
10:59 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Hello Blizz, et al.
Still happy to see folks check-in and report their experiences.

Hoping Heavy will have had power restored today and check-in.

What's up with a storm election day? Ya'll are my weather reporters and having not seen anything from ya'll I'm guessing not a concern, but sure would like to see Blizz and all the "et al"s confirm or reject the notion.

Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
1051. PengSnow
10:56 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Blizz here in the South Hills of PGH it looks as thougth the lowest barometer here was 28.91(unofficial-but close based off my home barometer). Do you have other locations info throughout the Northeast. Also any early thoughts on the storm early next week, it looks as though models are mixed...........just like next week. It is kind of interesting with more than several days out the canada model and euro seem to have a better prediction furtner out.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
1050. Zachary Labe
10:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting Walshy:
Sugar Mountain Ski Resort, NC made a historic opening date today.

Reports of 6ft drifts above 4,000ft in TN/NC.

You may have already posted the totals, but how did some of the lower elevation cites fare for snowfall such as Asheville and Boone, NC?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
1049. Walshy
8:19 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Sugar Mountain Ski Resort, NC made a historic opening date today.

Reports of 6ft drifts above 4,000ft in TN/NC.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
1048. Luisport
7:19 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Sandy no longer the lowest pressure near the U.S. Low off NW coast is more intense-- 29.24" Hg. Sandy is currently 29.35.

Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1047. PhillySnow
6:57 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Hi everyone, I am fine, did not lose power, but about 5:30on Monday pm, my computer went dead. Have to take it to the Apple Store, here in Stamford,--but they are not open yet, no power for them. I am using my daughters lap-top, that she brought over to my house. No real damage in my immediate neighborhood, but 63% of Stamford out of power. My baro. got down to 28.68" at its lowest. Top wind gust was 62mph. for me. Will report more when I have my own computer back. Take care. LT

Good to hear you're ok, LT! Thanks for checking in.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
1046. Luisport
6:51 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting Luisport:
In the flooded areas and in the ellection day, it will be very stressfull day!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

eastern trough early next week would be a big deal if not for what has just happened
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1045. Luisport
5:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting PengSnow:


Accuweather is reporting a potential storm, but less potent than Sandy...of course. It would be wind and rain for the east coast and snow inland, this time Pittsburgh and Eastern,OH will get some measurable snow---might be about a 4-8incher for Pittsburgh, based off forecast.
In the flooded areas and in the ellection day, it will be very stressfull day!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
1044. Walshy
4:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Ski season has opened in western NC!

Link

Still snowing on day 3 at Appalachian State University. 1-2 more inches possible. A few reports of 36 inches coming in above 4,000ft.

Link

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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