The Northeast Weather Blog...

So we're already being forced to hope 1,000 things happen at the same time? Yeah, enjoy the weather, Bermuda.

Can't wait to see Henry Marugsity's blog in less than an hour. It probably calls for the end of the world.

HPC certainly hedging a bit:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
959 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO
UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.
THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE
FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL,
BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT
BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE
EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS
CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR,
WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


CISCO

Well said wunderstorm87, probably the end of the Universe!

"I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper level low like what the Euro shows."
-Henry Margusity's shocking but probably true statement from his blog today

Link

Forecast path for the newly formed TD18...

Little disputer this will get up to the Bahamas,the real drama is after that.Models really split on this.
The big question becomes will it phase with the digging trough or scoot out to sea and never phase.Probably won't know that answer until the end of the week.Just keep in mind End of October is famous for these phasing of tropical systems with troughs and lows in the northern atlantic,so anything is possible at this time.

Margusity hasn't called for the end, but the d-bag from WxRisk.com is...

Now that the storm has actually formed will be interesting to see model runs from here on out...

Looks like 12z GFS has the tropical system heading near Bermuda, like Blizz indicated, with no Noreaster low at all!

lol, the airport.

And 12z ECMWF keeps an enormous low right off the coast! This is what makes winter storm forecasting so fun -- so much dynamic energy (especially with a tropical system involved) that anything can happen!

I guarantee you are going to see forcasts and models flip flopping all week,worse than politicians running for office.Some of the models are ridiculous with this thing.Gotta just sit back see how this plays out.

Even though a system has formed - don't expect model consensus. The reason is the trough that is important in all of this is about 3500 miles away just off the coast of California - and the system in play is in the southern most reaches of the Caribbean sea.

The Trough isn't modeled to reach the Appalachians until Saturday. The low into the Bahamas on Friday.

That is quite the hookup to detail this far in advance.

We're looking at Friday for our answers - and maybe just maybe late on Thursday some early hints.

Until then things are going to flip around and change.

Other than watching in interest, and knowing the potential system exists, there's nothing to forecast or predict with any precision this far out.

Remember there is more than just the trough and the low - we are looking for phasing to occur around the Mid-Atlantic to get these outrageous forecast models to verify.

Now think about our winter Nor'Easters and how even 12 hours in advance we have little to no idea if a system is going to properly phase/develop or not.

So let's just put that all into a little bit of perspective.


With that, have a good couple of days folks, I have a very busy stretch going on - which is good - cause watching this unfold will be unbearably slow.

Quoting Pcroton:
Even though a system has formed - don't expect model consensus. The reason is the trough that is important in all of this is about 3500 miles away just off the coast of California - and the system in play is in the southern most reaches of the Caribbean sea.

The Trough isn't modeled to reach the Appalachians until Saturday. The low into the Bahamas on Friday.

That is quite the hookup to detail this far in advance.

We're looking at Friday for our answers - and maybe just maybe late on Thursday some early hints.

Until then things are going to flip around and change.

Other than watching in interest, and knowing the potential system exists, there's nothing to forecast or predict with any precision this far out.

Remember there is more than just the trough and the low - we are looking for phasing to occur around the Mid-Atlantic to get these outrageous forecast models to verify.

Now think about our winter Nor'Easters and how even 12 hours in advance we have little to no idea if a system is going to properly phase/develop or not.

So let's just put that all into a little bit of perspective.


With that, have a good couple of days folks, I have a very busy stretch going on - which is good - cause watching this unfold will be unbearably slow.

You are right on, this will be slow, early Thursday to early Friday should be close enough to predict this, for the "1991 perfect storm" wasn't it very warm several days out? However tropical storms can have a mind of their own.

Quoting wunderstorm87:
"I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper level low like what the Euro shows."
-Henry Margusity's shocking but probably true statement from his blog today

Link

Whoa if he says that?? RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!! haha In all seriousness it is good that he is the voice of reason when we see something that everything HAS to come together to produce of storm of this magnitude.

Does anyone remember last year's halloween storm? We had over a foot of snow here on campus (probably more) in Springfield, MA. School was closed for the week that followed because the campus and city sustained serious damage. No thanks, don't need a repeat!

a 20% chance of rain today? well make it 100% chance of rain. I am getting rain now. UGH. just can't seem to dry out

The ECMWF operational is scary,but at this point in time,don't see anything like that happening,most models are taking this out to sea without any phasing.But with past history of October storms,don't like to discount any scenario at this point in time. Stay tuned.

The GFS ensemble members are trending way to the west in recent runs. It's arbitrary to count the exact number of members with a given solution but you can see it's closer to 50/50 on the OTS and curve NW scenarios.
(This was posted when the 12z runs were up, graphic may update)

While this will never happen, it would be an utter catastrophe...

Its always fascinating as we get into this time of year and through the winter,when we have a potential major storm brewing,you always see amazing model differences from catastrophic events to nothing happening,and usually the truth is somewhere in the middle.Thats the way Im approaching this,but it is intresting to see some models shifting back west,but then again a week away,you will probably see shifts west and east until next saturday when we should have a pretty good handle on the track.