Next two weeks...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:05 PM GMT on October 19, 2012

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Good morning! It is almost the end of October and days are rapidly becoming shorter. Global wavelengths in the northern hemisphere are beginning to shortern in correspondance with a strengthening polar jet that continues to drop more south with each passing trough. These are sure signs that winter is fast approaching and actual snow chances are a little more than two to three weeks away for parts of the Northeast. The upcoming week looks relatively benign weatherwise, with the biggest story in the east being some abnormally warm temperatures. Highs will shoot into the 70s as far north as southern new England for several days with daily means nearly +10F.. This will likely solidify October as another abnormal month for mean temperatures continuing the two year trend. Below, this blog will take a look at the longer range forecast highlighting the possible first winter blast.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a measure of the position of convection and monsoonal patterns across the Indian Ocean. Several ensembles are operation models forecast the position of the convection, which then helps to give an idea of a general phase. This phase indicates the position of rossby waves across the Northern hemisphere, and therefore we can attempt to predict where troughs and ridges will be located. The current GEFS mean indicates a general shift through phase 8 into 1 through the end of October. The analogs for mean temperature composites for phases 8 and 1 are located below.

This would signal cooler air funneling south from Canada into the inner mountain west and northern Plains. The trough axis will likely center west of the central Plains. Therefore any cold-air intrusion will likely remain west of the Appalachians. It is expected through the end of October that warmer than normal temperatures will prevail across the Northeast.

The ensemble forecast for the AO and NAO teleconnections are listed below. During the transition seasons, the NAO and AO have less impact on the weather patterns across the Northeast than winter due to the larger wavelengths currently present. Although this correlation is still relatively misunderstood. The present NAO, while negative on CPC composites, is generally east-based and therefore the impacts on the Northeast are meager at best. A west-based positioning to the pressure differences is correlated to the significant troughing and storminess that is very common in winter forecast discussions for east coast snowfall.

As we continue edge closer to the months of November and December, these indices will have a larger impact on the short and long term weather.

Long range models are beginning to hint at another pattern swing by early November.

GFS ensembles are highlighting the development of a more west-based negative NAO as heights begin to increase towards Iceland and Greenland. Wavelengths are showing favorable trends for a winter storm possibility around the beginning of the second week of November. Composites for MJO phases begin to modify after October with phases 6,7,8,1 becoming the most favorable for east coast storminess and troughing. This allows convection to focus along the 180 degree longitude with troughing near Japan, the Aleutian Islands, and the east coast.

The OP ECMWF brings about this slight pattern change a bit later with warmer conditions prevailing through at least Halloween. But the most recent ECMWF weeklies indicate that cooler weather will reappear by November.

The GGEM ensembles are a bit constrasting at this point in the longe range, but still note cooler weather slowly spreading east over time from the west.


I am expecting that October will finish out above normal in all climatological reporting stations at or around a mean of (+)1.5F for the month. As the -NAO becomes more situated favorably, colder air over the western plains will begin to slowly spew east in a step-down pattern. Each cold front will allow the colder air to reach further and further east with each subsequent passing. This regime will allow for the development of several Great Lakes cutters. By the first week in November, near normal temperatures will begin to filter back into Northeast and by the second week cooler weather is possible. Given current wavelengths and equitorial convective patterns, it is likely the development of a storm system in the eastern half of the country will bring some areas this first bought of wintry precipitation.

I am relatively confident that there will be no snowfall through the end of the October across the Northeast. Precipitation means will range near normal also for this time period. My winter outlook will hopefully be posted by Halloween. Stay tuned!

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"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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74. NEwxguy
2:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
Its always fascinating as we get into this time of year and through the winter,when we have a potential major storm brewing,you always see amazing model differences from catastrophic events to nothing happening,and usually the truth is somewhere in the middle.Thats the way Im approaching this,but it is intresting to see some models shifting back west,but then again a week away,you will probably see shifts west and east until next saturday when we should have a pretty good handle on the track.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
73. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:18 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
72. colortheworld
2:04 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
While this will never happen, it would be an utter catastrophe...


Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
71. wunderstorm87
1:25 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
The GFS ensemble members are trending way to the west in recent runs. It's arbitrary to count the exact number of members with a given solution but you can see it's closer to 50/50 on the OTS and curve NW scenarios.
(This was posted when the 12z runs were up, graphic may update)
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
70. NEwxguy
1:09 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
The ECMWF operational is scary,but at this point in time,don't see anything like that happening,most models are taking this out to sea without any phasing.But with past history of October storms,don't like to discount any scenario at this point in time. Stay tuned.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
69. TheRasberryPatch
1:02 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
a 20% chance of rain today? well make it 100% chance of rain. I am getting rain now. UGH. just can't seem to dry out
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
68. TheF1Man
5:31 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Does anyone remember last year's halloween storm? We had over a foot of snow here on campus (probably more) in Springfield, MA. School was closed for the week that followed because the campus and city sustained serious damage. No thanks, don't need a repeat!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
67. weathergeek5
10:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting wunderstorm87:
"I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper level low like what the Euro shows."
-Henry Margusity's shocking but probably true statement from his blog today

Link


Whoa if he says that?? RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!! haha In all seriousness it is good that he is the voice of reason when we see something that everything HAS to come together to produce of storm of this magnitude.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
66. PengSnow
9:15 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Even though a system has formed - don't expect model consensus. The reason is the trough that is important in all of this is about 3500 miles away just off the coast of California - and the system in play is in the southern most reaches of the Caribbean sea.

The Trough isn't modeled to reach the Appalachians until Saturday. The low into the Bahamas on Friday.

That is quite the hookup to detail this far in advance.

We're looking at Friday for our answers - and maybe just maybe late on Thursday some early hints.

Until then things are going to flip around and change.

Other than watching in interest, and knowing the potential system exists, there's nothing to forecast or predict with any precision this far out.

Remember there is more than just the trough and the low - we are looking for phasing to occur around the Mid-Atlantic to get these outrageous forecast models to verify.

Now think about our winter Nor'Easters and how even 12 hours in advance we have little to no idea if a system is going to properly phase/develop or not.

So let's just put that all into a little bit of perspective.


With that, have a good couple of days folks, I have a very busy stretch going on - which is good - cause watching this unfold will be unbearably slow.


You are right on, this will be slow, early Thursday to early Friday should be close enough to predict this, for the "1991 perfect storm" wasn't it very warm several days out? However tropical storms can have a mind of their own.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 462
65. Pcroton
8:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Even though a system has formed - don't expect model consensus. The reason is the trough that is important in all of this is about 3500 miles away just off the coast of California - and the system in play is in the southern most reaches of the Caribbean sea.

The Trough isn't modeled to reach the Appalachians until Saturday. The low into the Bahamas on Friday.

That is quite the hookup to detail this far in advance.

We're looking at Friday for our answers - and maybe just maybe late on Thursday some early hints.

Until then things are going to flip around and change.

Other than watching in interest, and knowing the potential system exists, there's nothing to forecast or predict with any precision this far out.

Remember there is more than just the trough and the low - we are looking for phasing to occur around the Mid-Atlantic to get these outrageous forecast models to verify.

Now think about our winter Nor'Easters and how even 12 hours in advance we have little to no idea if a system is going to properly phase/develop or not.

So let's just put that all into a little bit of perspective.


With that, have a good couple of days folks, I have a very busy stretch going on - which is good - cause watching this unfold will be unbearably slow.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
64. NEwxguy
8:15 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
I guarantee you are going to see forcasts and models flip flopping all week,worse than politicians running for office.Some of the models are ridiculous with this thing.Gotta just sit back see how this plays out.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
63. Zachary Labe
7:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

Lol, look at the over-amplified GGEM. Looking at the 500hPa maps, it would take many factors to be achieved perfectly for this scenario. It is quite unlikely.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
62. bwi
7:03 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
And 12z ECMWF keeps an enormous low right off the coast! This is what makes winter storm forecasting so fun -- so much dynamic energy (especially with a tropical system involved) that anything can happen!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
61. colortheworld
5:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
lol, the airport.
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
60. bwi
4:27 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Looks like 12z GFS has the tropical system heading near Bermuda, like Blizz indicated, with no Noreaster low at all!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
59. Sockets
4:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Now that the storm has actually formed will be interesting to see model runs from here on out...
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58. colortheworld
3:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Margusity hasn't called for the end, but the d-bag from WxRisk.com is...

Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
57. NEwxguy
3:11 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Little disputer this will get up to the Bahamas,the real drama is after that.Models really split on this.
The big question becomes will it phase with the digging trough or scoot out to sea and never phase.Probably won't know that answer until the end of the week.Just keep in mind End of October is famous for these phasing of tropical systems with troughs and lows in the northern atlantic,so anything is possible at this time.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
56. wunderstorm87
3:08 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Forecast path for the newly formed TD18...
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55. wunderstorm87
3:04 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
"I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper level low like what the Euro shows."
-Henry Margusity's shocking but probably true statement from his blog today

Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
54. originalLT
2:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Well said wunderstorm87, probably the end of the Universe!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
53. bwi
2:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
HPC certainly hedging a bit:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
959 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO
UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.
THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE
FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL,
BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT
BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE
EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS
CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR,
WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


CISCO
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52. wunderstorm87
2:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Can't wait to see Henry Marugsity's blog in less than an hour. It probably calls for the end of the world.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
51. colortheworld
1:54 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
So we're already being forced to hope 1,000 things happen at the same time? Yeah, enjoy the weather, Bermuda.
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
50. Zachary Labe
1:51 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting colortheworld:
Can somebody explain to me what's going on here? This is the only forum I've read thusfar but have seen Wishcaster Margusity going berserk on facebook about something, people talking tropical blizzards and hurricanes with snow, and what?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Lol, everyone seems to think just because the NAO is negative that a big storm will land on the east coast.

A tropical system is currently forming in the Caribbean. It will likely form into a weak hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas by the middle to end of the week. The track then of this system is in question in regards to early next week. A few of the models are capturing and phasing the system with a steep trough moving in from the west. While other guidance suggests the system remains out to sea towards Bermuda. Cold air is funneling in with the trough, so should it phase over the east coast an interesting and complex storm scenario would occur. But for now, I am thinking the most likely case will be a storm moving well out to sea.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
49. colortheworld
1:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Can somebody explain to me what's going on here? This is the only forum I've read thusfar but have seen Wishcaster Margusity going berserk on facebook about something, people talking tropical blizzards and hurricanes with snow, and what?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
48. originalLT
12:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
I'm with you Blizz, But Levi makes a pretty good case for the opposite to happen--a storm coming up very close to the coast and even hooking NW, inland as it reaches the NE.
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47. Zachary Labe
12:51 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
If I had to make a gut prediction, I am leaning towards a system that moves well off the coast towards Bermuda.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
46. Pcroton
12:05 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Mount Holly NJ briefly mentions the scenario...

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT, THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IN OUR REGION AND THE FATE OF THE LOW OFF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. FOR
THE TIME BEING, WE HAVE SIMPLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
45. Pcroton
11:41 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Yeah wunderstorm87, it could be from the remnants of that tropical system that may be forming in the Carribean in the next few days.


It is. 99L comes up and slows and does a huge clockwise loop off the mid-atlantic (quite far actually) and then retrogrades rapidly westward and phases with the trough and continues to plow north-westward 100s of miles inland. It's a rather bold and unlikely scenario. So very much has to go so very perfect for all that to happen. I'd toss that one away for now.

More looking at the coastal rider potential in all of this - and perhaps an off shore event being pulled back towards the coast in the end - but a huge bomb plowing westward like that - after doing a massive hundreds miles wide clockwise loop - eh... honestly don't see how it's even possible - let alone it continuing to bomb out as it heads inland. Things just don't work that way (980mb low off the coast coming west in a hurry and bombing to sub 960 inland NJ? eh...)



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
44. Pcroton
11:36 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Would be quite the event if it were to pan out.

We are way too far away for any of this tho- we don't even have a viable system to track - and we don't have it's northward turn... we don't have the trough, we don't have the trough's heading and speed.

We got nothing here. But it is interesting, especially since it is climatologically correct, and as of now the Mid-Atlantic/North East US are right where they would be prior to such a bomb coming up the coast to transition the seasons. Every so often it happens..not out of the question. Just way too early to place your bets is all.

Until 99L is in the Bahamas we got nothing, absolutely nothing, to conclude here...except the models have a lot of pretty colors shooting up the coastline.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
43. wunderstorm87
11:33 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
The 0z Euro is somehow even more ridiculous than the 12z:

That's a 964-968mb low sitting over NW PA. I apologize for model watching but it's not everyday you see a blizzard hurricane on the euro. Haha
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
42. TheRasberryPatch
11:26 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

I sense it is going to a rough winter for people getting hopes up on fantasy snows, hahah.

We do not even have any tropical development yet in the Caribbean. There is an anomalous block and interesting upper level ridge heights to the west, but at this point I am not buying into it.


I hear you, Blizz. I hope it doesn't occur. I would be a disaster along the coast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
41. listenerVT
6:38 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
70. listenerVT 5:53 AM GMT on October 19, 2012 +0

Quoting NEwxguy:
listener,you make luck out,the wet weather may hang around east and south of waterville,but the drier air may get in there by mid-day. Hopefully! Good luck.



Ooooh, that would be wonderful! The wedding is at 5pm!
There's a beautiful white arch with mountains behind it that was the original plan.



NEwxguy!!! SPOT ON!!!
The weather for my sister's wedding was gloriously perfect! It was even about 68F in Waterville Valley, NH at 5pm as the wedding started! AMAZING, especially as there had been a deluge of rain on Friday. (The bride was my older sister, Patti, who served in Kuwait as an Air Force RN several years ago.)

Today, 24 hours after the wedding, there was some rain followed a gorgeous, bright rainbow over the place where they wed.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
40. Zachary Labe
2:38 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting weathergeek5:
Some other forums are going BONKERS over this storm or as some are calling it "The Special storm". It is very intense so far. I am in danger of being caught up in it myself. We have to look at the trends not each model run.

I sense it is going to a rough winter for people getting hopes up on fantasy snows, hahah.

We do not even have any tropical development yet in the Caribbean. There is an anomalous block and interesting upper level ridge heights to the west, but at this point I am not buying into it.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
39. weathergeek5
2:04 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Some other forums are going BONKERS over this storm or as some are calling it "The Special storm". It is very intense so far. I am in danger of being caught up in it myself. We have to look at the trends not each model run.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
38. bwi
1:02 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Here's a link to Levi Cowan's tropical page, which talks about the chances of the tropical system bombing out into a big rain and windstorm for us. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2012/10/21/99l -a-significant-threat-to-the-bahamas-could-become- huge-east-coast-storm/
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
37. bwi
12:53 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Don't know if this link works, and I stink at posting pictures, but we had some very localized (just a block or two) wind damage apparently in our area from Friday afternoon's storms: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.40036230 0030493.92576.307014479365276&type=1
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
36. PengSnow
11:42 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

I am not sure what to think yet about this period. The blocking heights are pretty interesting and have a few similarities to the synoptic setup of Hurricane Hazel. But I do not know at this point. Interesting and rare model consistency at this leg of the game though.


the models this far out are always changeable, the only time that I can remember a model call way out was the superstorm of 93, but that was only about 3-4 days out if my memory serves me right. if this comes to fruition, we could have the "perfect storm" sequel which would be a close call between snow and rain. Nonetheless, this should be a great storm to watch.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 462
35. Zachary Labe
11:33 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Quoting anduril:
Hey Blizzard any thoughts on the weather setup Oct 27-31st? I know its a bit long range but I'm looking at taking the gf to philly that weekend and potentially proposing so I'd rather now have our weekend ruined by a tropical storm/blizzard! lol

I am not sure what to think yet about this period. The blocking heights are pretty interesting and have a few similarities to the synoptic setup of Hurricane Hazel. But I do not know at this point. Interesting and rare model consistency at this leg of the game though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
34. wunderstorm87
8:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Quoting weatherman321:
wow.. anyone see the latest model runs... for the 12z.. around halloween.crazy.

I was absolutely shocked to see that the 12z euro looked extremely similar to the 12z GFS when it came out an hour ago. The intensity and path of a tropical system aren't easy to model at 24-72hrs let alone 120-192hrs so despite the consistency in such an extreme event between the GFS & ECMWF I'm still somewhat skeptical.
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33. weatherman321
7:15 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
wow.. anyone see the latest model runs... for the 12z.. around halloween.crazy.
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32. anduril
4:42 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Hey Blizzard any thoughts on the weather setup Oct 27-31st? I know its a bit long range but I'm looking at taking the gf to philly that weekend and potentially proposing so I'd rather now have our weekend ruined by a tropical storm/blizzard! lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
31. originalLT
3:51 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Yeah wunderstorm87, it could be from the remnants of that tropical system that may be forming in the Carribean in the next few days.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
30. wunderstorm87
3:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Speaking of fun to look at...

The 0z Euro has a Nor'easter setting up for Halloween next week:


The 0C isotherm is in the Gulf of Mexico! haha
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
29. goofyrider
3:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
@ 20: Typo = 0.15 in good catch P
@ 24: Caught 2 around 0315. Satisfied went to bed. Peak viewing was all over the place from 2230 t0 0500.
@26 : Remember we both saw those conditions two days apart south of EWR around the end of Sept. Nothing to indicate conditions were possible. Good example of the Skywarn folks.
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28. Zachary Labe
2:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
6z GFS cold pocket snows on long range for Pennsylvania. Fun to look at!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
27. lawntonlookirs
1:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Actually with the stom on Fiday, I wasn't aware of it until yesterday morning when I saw it on the blog. I guess it was lucky with the timing of the storm on Friday night and High School Football that more injuries didn't occur.

Nice and clear this morning in Harrisburg. I will be heading up into Cattaragus County, NY on Monday and will keep a watch on the acorns on the way. It should be a nice drive this time of year.
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26. Pcroton
11:33 AM GMT on October 21, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


Something is wrong with that scenario. I assume the warning for Berks County was a result of the actual tornado that hit Lancaster County.

I heard the warning for northern Baltimore county in Maryland the funnel clouds were there, but stayed up in the sky above the ground.

All those Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this summer and a lot were just heavy rain. Something isn't right. I hope it is taken care of soon.


You know, it figures... all those MDT and SLGT issuances, tornado watches, thunderstorm warnings, and as you said just rain.. and a lot of the time NOTHING.

Then you have a dangerous scenario pop up and the forecast is calling for partly cloudy.

The same problem creating the false alarms is responsible for this situation.

Wanna know the problem? We all know it very well.

That line, that scar of deep storms that formed.. WASNT MODELED BY COMPUTERS TO TAKE SHAPE.

Therefore, nobody was watching.

Wrote their Partly Cloudy forecasts and went on to other things...

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
25. Pcroton
11:29 AM GMT on October 21, 2012
Woke up at 530 but just didn't get out until 630 so I didn't see anything. That's okay because I saw that huge one on Tuesday early morning on the way to work...and I seriously doubt I would see anything else on that scale. Seen a couple of other quick streaks over the past two weeks anyways...and where I am due to light interference you wouldn't see the 25 per hour - maybe 5 if you're lucky. Kinda rough staring up to see one every 10 minutes or so.


Well, I don't like model watching, I don't like forecasting past 72 hours, and I don't like models for any reason past 120... but 99L is an interesting feature in the Caribbean and many models have it making a sharp turn north and continuing to develop as it passes or brushes Florida.... and then some model runs do this: CMC 192 hours. It's not an impossibility, which is why I am even showing it, but it is a solution that can happen this time of year with these systems.




I would seriously doubt this would occur and if it did would not be anywhere near that strong of a system but given that a lot of times these fall dry/warm spells DO end with a bang, and, we have a disturbance that is modeled to potentially be that coastal low bang... it is worth noting and watching it's development over the coming week.

An awful lot would have to go perfect for such a scenario to play out yet they do happen every so often.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
24. originalLT
2:10 AM GMT on October 21, 2012
Just a reminder, that the Orionid Meteor showers are happening very late tonight and early Sunday morning. Best viewing time will be 4:15AM to 6:15AM. Find the constellation Orion in the southern sky and focus on that area. Hopefully most of the NorthEast will be clear at that time.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010

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