A taste of winter...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:06 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Good morning and happy Friday! It is another terribly dreary day here across the Finger Lakes as some light CAA rain showers move across New England ahead of an approaching cold front. Frost and freeze products have been issued for the entire Northeast and as far south as northern Virginia. A ridge of a high pressure behind the trough will create ideal radiational cooling conditions Friday night as temperatures drop at or below 32F for most climatological reporting stations. This will bring an official end of the growing season to the viewing area.

Looking at the climatological first frost dates, this year's freeze conditions are right around normal for areas along and north of I-80, but running even a few weeks early for areas to the south. Interestingly enough, last year's first 32F weather corresponded with the anomalous snowstorm around Halloween. This year is a bit different.

A lot of people have begun to ask me about the forecast for the coming winter. After last year's record warmth and low snow levels, many are left wondering how this winter will compare. With great certainty I can conclude that this winter will be colder and snowier than last year, but in reality that is not very to do. While I am waiting another two weeks or so for my official winter forecast, I will take a quick look today at some of the features in question.

The major player in forecasting long term weather during the winter months generally revolves around the condition of the ENSO. CFS prognostics for Nino region 3.4 SSTs continue to indicate weak to moderate El Nino conditions forming by early to mid winter, but taking a look at the actual pressure and SST anomalies in the equitorial Pacific show a different story.

The latest SOI numbers coming in indicate a bit of cooling for September and October supporting the idea of neutral to weak El Nino conditions this winter. Current GOA SST anomalies are more indicative of the previous La Nina with cooler water temperatures and a stubborn -PDO. There has been a bit of improvement in this region over the last few days and weeks, but concerns over the formation of the Alaskan vortex are beginning to grow.

None the less as rossby wavelengths become shorter, teleconnections will play a larger impact on the synoptic weather patterns across the CONUS. Nearly 12+ months have been dominated by anomalous warmth across the Northeast, but we are beginning to see the pattern break down. A strong -EPO is responsible for this recent surge in cold weather across the Midwest and East. As noted in the SST's above, this animation Link shows great improvement in the breaking down of the bold -PDO across the north Pacific.

The El Nino is also not dead. Long range ensembles indicate weakening easterly winds at 10mb in response to a westerly wind burst that is in the forecast grids during the next few weeks. This may help to restore weak El Nino conditions to Nino region 3.4.

The MJO is beginning to yield outside of the 'circle of death' as we begin to see an increase in monsoonal rain patterns over the Indian Ocean. This will impact long waves and the current ENSO.

Outside the equitorial Pacific, other factors including Siberian snowfall departures indicate a pretty substantial snow cover thus far this year. While still below climatological norms, snow cover is at or slightly more widespread than the past few Octobers. Snow cover though is lacking in Canada, but the correlation is much weaker between Canadian snow cover and weather patterns over the Northeast.

Above is a brief look at the status of the major indices critical to forecasting long term weather patterns. But what does it mean for us? I think we can expect a general weak El Nino presense, although its impact will be even more subdued due to the Nina-like -PDO. There are signs of a stratospheric warming event as we enter November and December, therefore possibly signaling colder and snowier weather in this time frame. In fact long term wavelengths are supporting some type of winter storm around this time next month. This could time nicely with an influx of colder air that is currently being sniffed out by long range guidance in early November. It is likely early November will feature a higher than normal chance of a widespread snow over the Northeast. Given the current state of the stratosphere, there are also higher odds that winter will start off colder in December. Based on current teleconnections and analogs, I am leaning towards a near normal temperature winter with slightly above normal snowfall for most areas. The major concern in the coming weeks will be the status of any formation of the Alaskan Vortex. This feature killed off most all snow chances last winter. While it does not mean anything at this point, the entire synoptic flow over the globe is entirely different than last year at this time.

This blog will hopefully kick off my once-a-week blogs starting from now through winter. I will have my official winter forecast posted around Halloween.

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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73. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:05 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
72. Pcroton
11:17 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
So the venture to Westchester... the huge oak tree had zero acorns on it. Much like my pear trees it is having a very very lean fruit year.

The squirrels and birds are out of control the past few days here... and the shrubs and mock cherry trees have more berries than I've seen in a long long time.

What to make of it all? LOL...don't want to be opening another rant.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
71. Pcroton
11:08 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Some decent echoes coming in from the south for us Goofy.

Whoops, I should have archived those images from yesterday...as they have since been updated and now reflect the proper rendering of the situation at hand.

Tough to tell how much rain we could get. Nice scar of heavy stuff in NW Jersey... more apparently developing from the south.

Either way it looks like a breezy showery day.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
70. listenerVT
5:53 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting NEwxguy:
listener,you make luck out,the wet weather may hang around east and south of waterville,but the drier air may get in there by mid-day. Hopefully! Good luck.


Ooooh, that would be wonderful! The wedding is at 5pm!
There's a beautiful white arch with mountains behind it that was the original plan.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
69. listenerVT
5:51 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting PhillySnow:
I hope it works out for your sister, Listener! There was rain forecast all week for my son's outdoor wedding, and we rented one of those large white party tarps (not sure what they call those), and then at the last minute it cleared up and we took it all down an hour before the ceremony. It was a little hectic, fun with the guys all scrambling around in their tux's, and worth it! And the truth is that it's about the people anyway, and you'll all have a great time whatever happens.


Yes, and thanks. I always tell couples that the only thing that matters is that they show up and say yes, all the rest is extra. ;-) But she's 60 and it really matters to her. The good news is that the Inn has decided to give them a better room for the wedding...one with windows and a stone fireplace. That helps!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
68. goofyrider
5:08 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Looks as if this storm has legs.  Stuff off shore moving NNE as the rain in the area West of the Delaware.  
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2940
67. NEwxguy
7:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
listener,you make luck out,the wet weather may hang around east and south of waterville,but the drier air may get in there by mid-day. Hopefully! Good luck.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
66. PhillySnow
6:50 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
Quoting listenerVT:
Aww, yesterday there was a weather report indicating a little sunshine at the end of the day this Saturday in Waterville Valley, NH. Now it's back to saying rain. That's my sister's wedding day and they had hoped for an outdoor ceremony with mountains and Autumn leaves. Now it may be in a room with no windows. :-(
I hope it works out for your sister, Listener! There was rain forecast all week for my son's outdoor wedding, and we rented one of those large white party tarps (not sure what they call those), and then at the last minute it cleared up and we took it all down an hour before the ceremony. It was a little hectic, fun with the guys all scrambling around in their tux's, and worth it! And the truth is that it's about the people anyway, and you'll all have a great time whatever happens.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1272
65. Zachary Labe
3:20 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
New blog tomorrow morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
64. Pcroton
12:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Yeah, this pattern sure is stubborn. I wonder when we will finally get a month with a below normal mean. It does appear though that the anomalous warmth is slowly waning.


Hell... I am happy to finally have had a "real fall" here in NJ where September and October cooled down and steadily continued cooling as time went on.

It's been a long time since Sept-Oct weren't just an absolute continuation of summer.


As to the short warmup it does not seem drastic to me. We've been in the 60s for some time, and the last two day warmup were 72F and this one appears the same before dropping back into the 60s.


I'm unconcerned anyways... we always get a pattern change that wipes out any possible continuity one tries to draw from the Sept/Oct temps. It could be cold or hot and then comes the last week of December and the new pattern settles in and decides on it's own to be cold or hot regardless of the previous pattern. It never links together here in central NJ. Just never does. I've stopped trying to connect dots that refuse to be connected.

We've had blistering Novembers that lead into frigid Januarys. We've had freezing Novembers that lead into blistering Januarys. We've also had one long frigid period Nov-Jan and also one long blistering NOV-Jan. Nothing that occurs in fall ever dictates what winter brings here.

Right after Christmas, we either start getting colder and snowy - or we dont.

It's very frustrating, but I'm going on almost 35 years of following it and never once finding a pattern to follow "Oh geez, it was -__ in sept, therefore the winter will be ___"

Never...works.


Thus ends my rant of the day. :)

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
63. Pcroton
12:17 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
39F this morning. A good 12F lower than forecast which is unusual...they've been very good with temperatures.

Not sure what to expect tonight and Friday - I assume a disturbance is going to form along the front and ride northward like the last system did?

If not...then the forecast will not verify as the frontal system is very stretched and blown out. We'd be looking at some light showers with it's passage.

===
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME OF THE RAIN BECOMING LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
===

12 Hours...

(edit: Image updated...)




36 Hours...

(edit: image updated...)



Seems kind of odd... a warm front backing southward and expanding eastward? I'm confused haha.

Definitely not a normal event by any means if this is how it is to unfold.

Something seems off to me... models or discussion or both on how or where the disturbance is coming from. Never seen a disturbance for along a blown out cold front in Canada and ride the front SOUTHWARD into the mid-atlantic like that.

Anyone else?

Or is it I who is losing his mind...which is of course entirely possible these days. Been fairly busy again.

Heading to Westchester today. Will be nice to see some expanded colors as we've just begun our heavier widespread changes here in Tinton Falls NJ.

Will also check on the huge acorn tree on the property I am visiting. :)



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
62. listenerVT
4:08 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
Aww, yesterday there was a weather report indicating a little sunshine at the end of the day this Saturday in Waterville Valley, NH. Now it's back to saying rain. That's my sister's wedding day and they had hoped for an outdoor ceremony with mountains and Autumn leaves. Now it may be in a room with no windows. :-(
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
61. listenerVT
4:05 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
My family in Kennebunk was only 15 miles from the center of the Maine earthquake. They said it was impressive...all the windows in the house rattled and it startled everyone.

TRP...here's the answer to your question. Hope we never see another 7 affecting New England!


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/mai ne/history.php
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
60. Zachary Labe
3:22 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
Quoting NEwxguy:
Hey,Blizz,that warmup coming just keeps our string of above normal months going.Almost thought October was going to come in below normal and then the whole pattern changed.
By the way,never felt a thing last night,but many of my neighbors felt it,guess I guess I live on sand absorbing the movement,althugh I believe I have ledge under me. Another earthquake in Oklahoma this morning,earth is doing some moving around this week.

Yeah, this pattern sure is stubborn. I wonder when we will finally get a month with a below normal mean. It does appear though that the anomalous warmth is slowly waning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
59. NEwxguy
4:27 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
Hey,Blizz,that warmup coming just keeps our string of above normal months going.Almost thought October was going to come in below normal and then the whole pattern changed.
By the way,never felt a thing last night,but many of my neighbors felt it,guess I guess I live on sand absorbing the movement,althugh I believe I have ledge under me. Another earthquake in Oklahoma this morning,earth is doing some moving around this week.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
58. Zachary Labe
1:45 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
A warm up is coming and looks to last through the next 7-10 days. Temperatures will likely shoot up into the 70s for the last time this season. GEFS 6z support this morning...

Keep in mind the OP ECMWF and ensembles are even warmer.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
57. TheRasberryPatch
1:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
Low was 38F with some frost on the ground.

A beautiful morning. Crisp and clear with high cirrus clouds
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
56. Zachary Labe
12:04 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
32F with a heavy frost here in Ithaca this morning.

MarylandGirl- A few long term wavelength trends are indicating cold and perhaps some snow towards early and mid November, so it is definitely a possibility!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
55. Pcroton
11:04 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Our Bradford Pear trees (never plant these disasters, trust me!) are very thin on their berries this year.

Yet every other tree or bush I have that produce berries are quite overloaded this season.

I will be heading north for a day and where I go has a huge Oak tree so I will get a feel for the acorn crop.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
54. Pcroton
11:02 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Saw an incredible meteor yesterday morning at 540am when leaving to head to the train. Looking generally north east it shot straight down from above and was breaking up. Yellowish white, lot of glitter all around it, and the size of a streetlamp dropping from the sky. Largest I've seen in over five years that I can recall...and the first so large I've seen coming straight down like that.


40F and still dropping a little here..dew on everything but caught a couple neighbors actually scraping their car windows a bit. I think it's about as borderline as you can get temperature wise for that phenomena to occur.

Rain Thursday night it seems followed by more cool weather. Pretty happy to not see that gross early fall warmup occur this year.

I'm sure we're close to due for a pattern change let us hope it's not a zonal one bringing the warmth back.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
53. MarylandGirl
8:17 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Thanks Blizz! Color starting to show in So MD. We do have a bumper crop of acorns, I am amazed that we have not been hit by one! Hope the predictions are correct and we see a snowy winter!! It has been a few years and we are due! Going to Maine Nov 8 to close up camp....think they will have snow? We are in the western mtns about 30 miles from Rangeley...
Looking forward to your updates!
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52. goofyrider
6:49 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
No vibes here.  Beautiful nite with stars. 
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51. originalLT
1:33 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
TRP, that is exactly what I thought happened--the washing machine popped on and was way off balance!
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50. TheRasberryPatch
1:10 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Quoting Sockets:
4.6 Earthquake in Southern Maine


Is there a plate there? Would it be similar to the Earthquake that hit the East Coast in 2000 or 2001 or 2002? I was in Chester, NY (60 miles NW of NYC) for that one and laying in bed that morning. It felt like the washing machine was off balance, how it shakes the floor.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
49. Zachary Labe
11:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Sockets:
4.6 Earthquake in Southern Maine

Yep, I just heard about that! Apparently some pretty good rocking even down into the Boston metro area. Pretty impressive for the Northeast!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
48. Sockets
11:33 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
4.6 Earthquake in Southern Maine
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46. TheRasberryPatch
11:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2012
I received 0.38" of rain yesterday.

I just planted a few trees and hope we can get rain like that every 4 or 5 days. I planted a White Oak, Sugar Maple and Gingko as well as 2 Douglas Firs to replace the 2 I have lost the past year. I planted a Red Oak and White Oak a couple of years ago and they are doing well. I love Oak trees. I grew up in a residential area that had a nickname of the Oaks, since all the streets were named after a different Oak tree. It's a shame more people don't plant more Oak trees. Way too many Maples. Maples don't provide for the critters in the wild.

Truly amazing that the acorn crop can be so different a couple hundred miles apart in a relatively similar climate. From the last two posts.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
45. originalLT
4:33 AM GMT on October 16, 2012
Total rainfall for my area, Stamford CT. was, 0.38". Also here, this year again, like last year, our "acorn crop" is very tiny, almost non existent, after two years of "bumper crops". The years of bumper crops correlated with the 2 good snowy years. We'll see.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
44. Alee6k
4:04 AM GMT on October 16, 2012
Blizz, thanks for the early update.

We had our killing frost last weekend... and then the warm balmy days this week. But by our non-scientific standards, in my neck of the sticks of NJ... the Oak Trees have produced an abundance of acorns (head hurtin' poppers), as opposed to nothing last year. Any fruit on apple trees are dropping fast... and deer are nibbling more than ever closer to residential developments. Old timers say we will have a good winter snow by Thanksgiving! But they don't think it will be as cold as it should be.
So much depends on a good cold and snowy winter...

Let's see what happens.
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42. Pcroton
8:19 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Geez just look at that disturbance steal focus of energy away from my area...everywhere south and east of I95 is bust.

I might not even get more than some quick light showers.


(static image, not live)


Disappointing. Certainly not according to plan, forecasting, nor modeling.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
41. Pcroton
8:12 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Changing of the leaves has accelerated here finally. Most everything has a yellowish or reddish hue to it now. Other than the Autumn Flame Maples...nothing is displaying vibrant color - although our red maples have a couple of leaves that are quite brilliant so there is some hope there.

It has just been so long since our Foliage has given the appearance of everything being on fire so to speak. Just so many failed seasons - either washed out colors - or gone green right to brown -etc.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
40. Pcroton
8:11 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Looks as if a decent disturbance formed along the front and moved into Eastern PA --- unfortunately this development robs energy from the portion of the front that will slide through Southern and Central NJ - so other than some steady showers - mostly light or perhaps moderate here or there - it's not going to be a big event.



5-day QPF has 3.5 inches of rain widespread through NJ and Eastern PA. I have no idea what that is about.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
39. NEwxguy
7:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Haven't been around in a while,busy,busy,busy,but always start to get interested in the blogs as winter is just around the corner.I sense the mid-atlantic may get the brunt of the snow,but we all should do better than last year,certainly hard to believe we could get less.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
38. colortheworld
3:59 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Nice breakdown, Blizz. First freeze of the season was had up here in Huntingdon on Friday night. I was out and about at 3:30 AM Saturday morning and the thermometer in my Blazer read 25 degrees. Certainly nice to finally feel a chill in the air here.

Foliage up here looks ok, but in some spots it went from being green to dead pretty fast. The view from outside my window shows a lot of past-peak foliage, which I guess is normal for this time. Just didn't seem to be at peak stage very long. Unless I'm way off.

That's it from here. I think lol.
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37. Pcroton
2:33 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
With the morning wearing on the radar to the SW is starting to fill in quite a bit over VA...with some building showers into MD and PA.

With the strong SW flow it *appears* this activity has a chance to overspread NJ and get into possibly CT if it comes soon enough.

The breezy conditions have become more of that familiar turblent breezy pre-frontal weather we have been experiencing around here since September.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
36. lawntonlookirs
1:55 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Thanks Blizz. Right now I am concentrating on the area around Cooperstown, NY and the surounding Counties, which are just to the East of Ithaca. Probably the same major floods they had there would help as the areas are about 100 miles apart.

Thanks again
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35. PhillySnow
12:13 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
Just saw your new blog post, Zach. Thanks for the explanations. I'm excited about weekly posts during winter! Counting down to snow now....
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34. Zachary Labe
11:59 AM GMT on October 15, 2012
lawntonlookirs- Not a problem! I'll see what I can find... Cornell is home to the Northeast Regional Climate Center so I can always tap into their record collection which is one of the largest on the east coast. I will try to get back to you with any findings by the end of the week!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
33. Pcroton
11:35 AM GMT on October 15, 2012
Morning all. Relatively warm and humid and breezy - overnight low of 63F.

Not impressed with today's radar imagery - I would suspect scattered light showers are most likely for us later this afternoon.

Couldn't rule out a little warmth energizing the front - and perhaps we get one of those weak narrow squalls.. the low topped moderate rain types.

Nothing exciting - except to drop us back into the 60s/40s splits we've been treated with.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
32. lawntonlookirs
3:33 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Blizz:

It has been a while since I posted on your blog, but I have been looking at it quite often. I am sure School is keeping you busy and adding to you knowledge.

I know you are busy, but was woundering if you could possibly help me out.

I have been working on Geneolgy in my family and have a brick wall that I have been trying to break for about 30 years, and oncerns my Paternal Grandfather.

The story I have heard from several of my relatives is that Fred Dayton was born about October 4, 1885 in Cooperstown, NY. This is what he has as his birth on all of the documents that I can find. However in checking in Cooperstown, I am unable to find such a birth certicate.

The story has it that about 1889, when he was three or four years old, his parents were killed in a flood. As a result of the death of his parents, he was placed in an orphange in New York State. Possible Cooperstown or Rome, NY. I also checked orphange records and was unable to find any conclusive records.

Here is where I am asking for your help. In May of 1889 we have all heard of the Johnstown, PA flood and it is my understanding that the same storm that caused the Johnstown Flood also caused a lot of floods in New York State. They also had another Flood in 1889 which appears to be caused by a early winter thaw that flooded Buffalo, NY in January of 1889.

What I am trying to find is a data base, or articles that will provide me with a list of floods that have occured in NY around 1889 and/or also that shows the rainfall amounts.

I have checked a lot of County and Local Histories, but they don't seem to have much information on flooding that occured. If I can find some dates and places, than I may be able to check out archived newspapers to find additional informaton.

If you don't have time with your busy schedule, I will understand.

Not as cold in Harrisburg this morning as it was yesterday. Some plants were able to survive, but I don't expect to get many more crops.

Richard
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31. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Snow in parts of Maine last night...


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... cwop
observers... Skywarn spotters... facebook fans... and media for these
reports. This summary is also available on our home Page at
weather.Gov/Caribou

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement

Maine

... Piscataquis County...
Kingsbury 2.5 821 am 10/14
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
30. TheRasberryPatch
12:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
a shower passed this morning. Nothing much, maybe 0.02" or rain.

My vegetable plants were killed, except the carrots. Even the marigold leaves look dead. They were blooming so well.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
29. Pcroton
11:12 AM GMT on October 14, 2012
Well we did indeed bottom out early last night at 46F. 50F by 6am. Looking for 72 still. Very nice out.

Holding firm for showes on Monday afternoon and evening.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
28. goofyrider
3:16 AM GMT on October 14, 2012
Nice evening aiting
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27. originalLT
1:25 AM GMT on October 14, 2012
Yes Pcroton, first below freezing.
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26. Walshy
12:44 AM GMT on October 14, 2012
Just thought I would peak in today from north-western NC.
Every forecast I see for this winter is better than last winter.

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
25. Pcroton
11:28 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Nice, LT. First below freezing?


Well...it seems tonight's forecasted lows are going to be off.

We are forecast for 47. It's already 46 at 730PM and dropping steadily.

Early to bottom out given tomorrows 72F?
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12608
24. originalLT
11:24 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Low here in Stamford CT. this morning was 30.3F. Still have my 50 plus years old grapefruit plant outside. I think I will keep it out another week or two. Don't see any sub freezing temps. for awhile. It does much better outside than in.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
23. Zachary Labe
11:16 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting wunderstorm87:

Do you have any idea where KMDT's ASOS is in relation to the Susquehanna River? The image on Google Earth is a bit too blurry to clearly discern it.

KCXY, which is about 4 miles away from KMDT, reported a temperature 2F lower.

My theory is that the much warmer Susquehanna River gave them the extra couple degrees.

Meh, haha, I have had ongoing complaints about KMDT since I have been little. Their precipitation, snowfall, and temperature data is always way off compared to surrounding areas. While it could be the river, I think there is another explanation. Even the one time when I visited CTP NWS, they mentioned that KMDT may have some equipment that is faulty.
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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