The Northeast Weather Blog...

A taste of winter...

Posted by: Zachary Labe, 1:06 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

Good morning and happy Friday! It is another terribly dreary day here across the Finger Lakes as some light CAA rain showers move across New England ahead of an approaching cold front. Frost and freeze products have been issued for the entire Northeast and as far south as northern Virginia. A ridge of a high pressure behind the trough will create ideal radiational cooling conditions Friday night as temperatures drop at or below 32F for most climatological reporting stations. This will bring an official end of the growing season to the viewing area.

Looking at the climatological first frost dates, this year's freeze conditions are right around normal for areas along and north of I-80, but running even a few weeks early for areas to the south. Interestingly enough, last year's first 32F weather corresponded with the anomalous snowstorm around Halloween. This year is a bit different.

A lot of people have begun to ask me about the forecast for the coming winter. After last year's record warmth and low snow levels, many are left wondering how this winter will compare. With great certainty I can conclude that this winter will be colder and snowier than last year, but in reality that is not very to do. While I am waiting another two weeks or so for my official winter forecast, I will take a quick look today at some of the features in question.

The major player in forecasting long term weather during the winter months generally revolves around the condition of the ENSO. CFS prognostics for Nino region 3.4 SSTs continue to indicate weak to moderate El Nino conditions forming by early to mid winter, but taking a look at the actual pressure and SST anomalies in the equitorial Pacific show a different story.

The latest SOI numbers coming in indicate a bit of cooling for September and October supporting the idea of neutral to weak El Nino conditions this winter. Current GOA SST anomalies are more indicative of the previous La Nina with cooler water temperatures and a stubborn -PDO. There has been a bit of improvement in this region over the last few days and weeks, but concerns over the formation of the Alaskan vortex are beginning to grow.

None the less as rossby wavelengths become shorter, teleconnections will play a larger impact on the synoptic weather patterns across the CONUS. Nearly 12+ months have been dominated by anomalous warmth across the Northeast, but we are beginning to see the pattern break down. A strong -EPO is responsible for this recent surge in cold weather across the Midwest and East. As noted in the SST's above, this animation Link shows great improvement in the breaking down of the bold -PDO across the north Pacific.

The El Nino is also not dead. Long range ensembles indicate weakening easterly winds at 10mb in response to a westerly wind burst that is in the forecast grids during the next few weeks. This may help to restore weak El Nino conditions to Nino region 3.4.

The MJO is beginning to yield outside of the 'circle of death' as we begin to see an increase in monsoonal rain patterns over the Indian Ocean. This will impact long waves and the current ENSO.

Outside the equitorial Pacific, other factors including Siberian snowfall departures indicate a pretty substantial snow cover thus far this year. While still below climatological norms, snow cover is at or slightly more widespread than the past few Octobers. Snow cover though is lacking in Canada, but the correlation is much weaker between Canadian snow cover and weather patterns over the Northeast.

Above is a brief look at the status of the major indices critical to forecasting long term weather patterns. But what does it mean for us? I think we can expect a general weak El Nino presense, although its impact will be even more subdued due to the Nina-like -PDO. There are signs of a stratospheric warming event as we enter November and December, therefore possibly signaling colder and snowier weather in this time frame. In fact long term wavelengths are supporting some type of winter storm around this time next month. This could time nicely with an influx of colder air that is currently being sniffed out by long range guidance in early November. It is likely early November will feature a higher than normal chance of a widespread snow over the Northeast. Given the current state of the stratosphere, there are also higher odds that winter will start off colder in December. Based on current teleconnections and analogs, I am leaning towards a near normal temperature winter with slightly above normal snowfall for most areas. The major concern in the coming weeks will be the status of any formation of the Alaskan Vortex. This feature killed off most all snow chances last winter. While it does not mean anything at this point, the entire synoptic flow over the globe is entirely different than last year at this time.

This blog will hopefully kick off my once-a-week blogs starting from now through winter. I will have my official winter forecast posted around Halloween.

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"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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51. originalLT 1:33 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
TRP, that is exactly what I thought happened--the washing machine popped on and was way off balance! Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5186

52. goofyrider 6:49 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
No vibes here. Beautiful nite with stars. Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1943

53. MarylandGirl 8:17 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Thanks Blizz! Color starting to show in So MD. We do have a bumper crop of acorns, I am amazed that we have not been hit by one! Hope the predictions are correct and we see a snowy winter!! It has been a few years and we are due! Going to Maine Nov 8 to close up camp....think they will have snow? We are in the western mtns about 30 miles from Rangeley... Looking forward to your updates! Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 483

54. Pcroton 11:02 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Saw an incredible meteor yesterday morning at 540am when leaving to head to the train. Looking generally north east it shot straight down from above and was breaking up. Yellowish white, lot of glitter all around it, and the size of a streetlamp dropping from the sky. Largest I've seen in over five years that I can recall...and the first so large I've seen coming straight down like that. 40F and still dropping a little here..dew on everything but caught a couple neighbors actually scraping their car windows a bit. I think it's about as borderline as you can get temperature wise for that phenomena to occur. Rain Thursday night it seems followed by more cool weather. Pretty happy to not see that gross early fall warmup occur this year. I'm sure we're close to due for a pattern change let us hope it's not a zonal one bringing the warmth back. Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1476

55. Pcroton 11:04 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Our Bradford Pear trees (never plant these disasters, trust me!) are very thin on their berries this year. Yet every other tree or bush I have that produce berries are quite overloaded this season. I will be heading north for a day and where I go has a huge Oak tree so I will get a feel for the acorn crop. Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1476

56. Zachary Labe 12:04 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
32F with a heavy frost here in Ithaca this morning. MarylandGirl- A few long term wavelength trends are indicating cold and perhaps some snow towards early and mid November, so it is definitely a possibility! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

57. TheRasberryPatch 1:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
Low was 38F with some frost on the ground. A beautiful morning. Crisp and clear with high cirrus clouds Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

58. Zachary Labe 1:45 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
A warm up is coming and looks to last through the next 7-10 days. Temperatures will likely shoot up into the 70s for the last time this season. GEFS 6z support this morning... Keep in mind the OP ECMWF and ensembles are even warmer. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

59. NEwxguy 4:27 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
Hey,Blizz,that warmup coming just keeps our string of above normal months going.Almost thought October was going to come in below normal and then the whole pattern changed. By the way,never felt a thing last night,but many of my neighbors felt it,guess I guess I live on sand absorbing the movement,althugh I believe I have ledge under me. Another earthquake in Oklahoma this morning,earth is doing some moving around this week. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13275

60. Zachary Labe 3:22 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
Quoting NEwxguy: Hey,Blizz,that warmup coming just keeps our string of above normal months going.Almost thought October was going to come in below normal and then the whole pattern changed. By the way,never felt a thing last night,but many of my neighbors felt it,guess I guess I live on sand absorbing the movement,althugh I believe I have ledge under me. Another earthquake in Oklahoma this morning,earth is doing some moving around this week. Yeah, this pattern sure is stubborn. I wonder when we will finally get a month with a below normal mean. It does appear though that the anomalous warmth is slowly waning. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

61. listenerVT 4:05 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
My family in Kennebunk was only 15 miles from the center of the Maine earthquake. They said it was impressive...all the windows in the house rattled and it startled everyone. TRP...here's the answer to your question. Hope we never see another 7 affecting New England! http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/mai ne/history.php Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4825

62. listenerVT 4:08 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
Aww, yesterday there was a weather report indicating a little sunshine at the end of the day this Saturday in Waterville Valley, NH. Now it's back to saying rain. That's my sister's wedding day and they had hoped for an outdoor ceremony with mountains and Autumn leaves. Now it may be in a room with no windows. :-( Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4825

63. Pcroton 12:17 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
39F this morning. A good 12F lower than forecast which is unusual...they've been very good with temperatures. Not sure what to expect tonight and Friday - I assume a disturbance is going to form along the front and ride northward like the last system did? If not...then the forecast will not verify as the frontal system is very stretched and blown out. We'd be looking at some light showers with it's passage. === HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME OF THE RAIN BECOMING LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. === 12 Hours... (edit: Image updated...) 36 Hours... (edit: image updated...) Seems kind of odd... a warm front backing southward and expanding eastward? I'm confused haha. Definitely not a normal event by any means if this is how it is to unfold. Something seems off to me... models or discussion or both on how or where the disturbance is coming from. Never seen a disturbance for along a blown out cold front in Canada and ride the front SOUTHWARD into the mid-atlantic like that. Anyone else? Or is it I who is losing his mind...which is of course entirely possible these days. Been fairly busy again. Heading to Westchester today. Will be nice to see some expanded colors as we've just begun our heavier widespread changes here in Tinton Falls NJ. Will also check on the huge acorn tree on the property I am visiting. :) Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1476

64. Pcroton 12:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92: Yeah, this pattern sure is stubborn. I wonder when we will finally get a month with a below normal mean. It does appear though that the anomalous warmth is slowly waning. Hell... I am happy to finally have had a "real fall" here in NJ where September and October cooled down and steadily continued cooling as time went on. It's been a long time since Sept-Oct weren't just an absolute continuation of summer. As to the short warmup it does not seem drastic to me. We've been in the 60s for some time, and the last two day warmup were 72F and this one appears the same before dropping back into the 60s. I'm unconcerned anyways... we always get a pattern change that wipes out any possible continuity one tries to draw from the Sept/Oct temps. It could be cold or hot and then comes the last week of December and the new pattern settles in and decides on it's own to be cold or hot regardless of the previous pattern. It never links together here in central NJ. Just never does. I've stopped trying to connect dots that refuse to be connected. We've had blistering Novembers that lead into frigid Januarys. We've had freezing Novembers that lead into blistering Januarys. We've also had one long frigid period Nov-Jan and also one long blistering NOV-Jan. Nothing that occurs in fall ever dictates what winter brings here. Right after Christmas, we either start getting colder and snowy - or we dont. It's very frustrating, but I'm going on almost 35 years of following it and never once finding a pattern to follow "Oh geez, it was -__ in sept, therefore the winter will be ___" Never...works. Thus ends my rant of the day. :) Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1476

65. Zachary Labe 3:20 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
New blog tomorrow morning! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

66. PhillySnow 6:50 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
Quoting listenerVT: Aww, yesterday there was a weather report indicating a little sunshine at the end of the day this Saturday in Waterville Valley, NH. Now it's back to saying rain. That's my sister's wedding day and they had hoped for an outdoor ceremony with mountains and Autumn leaves. Now it may be in a room with no windows. :-( I hope it works out for your sister, Listener! There was rain forecast all week for my son's outdoor wedding, and we rented one of those large white party tarps (not sure what they call those), and then at the last minute it cleared up and we took it all down an hour before the ceremony. It was a little hectic, fun with the guys all scrambling around in their tux's, and worth it! And the truth is that it's about the people anyway, and you'll all have a great time whatever happens. Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 801

67. NEwxguy 7:55 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
listener,you make luck out,the wet weather may hang around east and south of waterville,but the drier air may get in there by mid-day. Hopefully! Good luck. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13275

68. goofyrider 5:08 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Looks as if this storm has legs. Stuff off shore moving NNE as the rain in the area West of the Delaware. Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1943

69. listenerVT 5:51 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting PhillySnow: I hope it works out for your sister, Listener! There was rain forecast all week for my son's outdoor wedding, and we rented one of those large white party tarps (not sure what they call those), and then at the last minute it cleared up and we took it all down an hour before the ceremony. It was a little hectic, fun with the guys all scrambling around in their tux's, and worth it! And the truth is that it's about the people anyway, and you'll all have a great time whatever happens. Yes, and thanks. I always tell couples that the only thing that matters is that they show up and say yes, all the rest is extra. ;-) But she's 60 and it really matters to her. The good news is that the Inn has decided to give them a better room for the wedding...one with windows and a stone fireplace. That helps! Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4825

70. listenerVT 5:53 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting NEwxguy: listener,you make luck out,the wet weather may hang around east and south of waterville,but the drier air may get in there by mid-day. Hopefully! Good luck. Ooooh, that would be wonderful! The wedding is at 5pm! There's a beautiful white arch with mountains behind it that was the original plan. Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4825

71. Pcroton 11:08 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Some decent echoes coming in from the south for us Goofy. Whoops, I should have archived those images from yesterday...as they have since been updated and now reflect the proper rendering of the situation at hand. Tough to tell how much rain we could get. Nice scar of heavy stuff in NW Jersey... more apparently developing from the south. Either way it looks like a breezy showery day. Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1476

72. Pcroton 11:17 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
So the venture to Westchester... the huge oak tree had zero acorns on it. Much like my pear trees it is having a very very lean fruit year. The squirrels and birds are out of control the past few days here... and the shrubs and mock cherry trees have more berries than I've seen in a long long time. What to make of it all? LOL...don't want to be opening another rant. Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1476

73. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 1:05 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation:	520 ft
Temperature:	73.1 °F
Dew Point:	66.2 °F
Humidity:	79%
Wind:	Calm
Wind Gust:	0.0 mph
Updated: 9:34 PM EDT on June 16, 2013 Station History