Widespread rain followed by much cooler Fall-like weather...
"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 9/14)
If you have not seen this image, I am sure you have heard that the current Arctic sea ice levels have dropped to the lowest extent on historical record.
It is a startling graph, and whether one believes this is in response to anthropogenic warming or not, it is critical to note that this will have some sort of feedback effect on present/long term weather patterns. The entire global circulation (Rossby Waves, etc.) act in a feedback circulation with direct correlations between a myriad of factors. For instance the expected cool blast across the contiguous United States (anomalous trough) will be connected to increasing upper level heights over the Arctic circle. In fact recent ECMWF ensembles highlight near record breaking heat to once again plague the region where sea ice is already at a record low. While warmer temperatures and increasing surface moisture have allowed new snow accumulations, most of the precipitation is occuring over open water instead of adding to snow depth on the ice. Therefore ice will have less insulation during the winter increasing the rate of melting during the cold season.
It is important to note that we are very uncertain about why this is occuring. Because everything is tied together in such a feedback loop, all of the cogs in the machine must fit perfect to maintain a stagnant atmosphere. But we all know the atmosphere is continously in a chaotic state seeking equilibrium. We are also uncertain of the effects this decline in sea ice extent will cause on our weather, whether it be anything significant at all. The computer models cannot accurately provide a answer to this question, but can only give us varying solutions depending on the change of 1 factor or so (this is what ensemble models are for).
We should be excited and alarmed over these recent records as they have never been seen before since the development of modern technological science. There is a lot to be desired in the field of long term forecasting, and this loss of sea ice is just another factor in predicting the upcoming winter.
"Regional Advisories"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Current Weather Map"
(Courtesy of Wunderground)
"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Updated 9/14)
Friday- An upper level trough centered over the upper Great Lakes will rotate into the region by the weekend dragging an associated cold front on Friday. The best forcing and associated QPF will be located along a convergence zone behind the front with a cold pool of rain showers and high elevated thundershowers. The best chance for rain will be from the Finger Lakes northeast through northern New England where amounts in some areas may reach .25in depending on the track of any convective activity. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front will drier air sinking south into the rest of the region by Friday night. Highs will average above normal as H85s remain above +10C for most areas during the daytime hours reaching into the lower 80s in many areas. Brief strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in an isolated area in New York State during teh day as wind shear aloft 0-6km ranges from 20-30 knots. Poor mid level lapse rates and other dynamics should inhibit most activity.
Saturday- As the trough begins to center over the Northeast, much cooler and drier air can be expected as highs drop back to near normal values. A brief northwest flow (H85s sub +4C) over Lake Ontario may create a few instability lake effect rain showers towards western New York, but most areas should remain only partly cloudy.
Sunday- Sunday appears to be the nicest day of the stretch so far as temperatures remain slightly below normal with low dew points. Winds will be a bit calmer out of the northwest allowing downsloping to inhibit any lake-effect strato-cumulus clouds in northern Pennsylvania and western New York. Sunday night looks chilly with ideal radiational cooling conditions over the northeast as a 1020mb high remains directly over Pennsylvania. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s for the deeper valleys over the Adirondack, White, and Green Mountains where katabatic winds will allow the cooler air to swoop down from the higher elevations. Patchy frost is possible in the coldest spots. But for most areas lows in the 40s should be a sufficient forecast.
Monday- An anomalous trough begin to take shape across the Canadian plains will begin to drop down over the upper Midwest. Meanwhile the flow out ahead of this steep cold front with turn out of the west-southwest bringing an increase moisture to the boundary layer and slightly warmer temperatures. Increasing clouds will begin to lower especially across the Middle Atlantic as chances of rain begin to increase by Monday night and Tuesday.
Tuesday- A significant synoptic rain event is likely across the entire Northeast during the day Tuesday as a shortwave over the Dakotas drops south sinking with another wave over the south central Plains. PWATs will rise to near +2SD as gulf moisture begins to stream northeast out ahead and along of the advancing cold front. Current GFS/NAM/ECMWF QPF global means suggest a widespread 1.0" of rain for most areas during this stratiform event that will last 6-12 hours. A few model runs have hinted at a stronger low level jet fueling some elevated instability and therefore creating another severe low-topped squall line, but the gradient is not impressive and the dynamics are clearly displaced to the north. While this threat is something to keep an eye on, I do not think it is going to be a big deal. Generally it will remain just a nice soaking rain with an occasional gusty southerly wind.
Wednesday-Friday- The coolest air will remain displaced to the north as the trough only gives the Northeast a glancing blow. H85 temperatures will drop to near +2C or so, but the widespread frost temperatures will remain in the Great Lakes. Nevertheless it give a nice taste of fall to the region helping to boost leaf colors. Highs will struggle to reach 60F above 2,500ft during this period.
By the weekend a more anomalous H5 trough will sink south over the Great Lakes with heavy synoptic rains out ahead of the front in a similar progression as the previous week. In general a cooler than normal and wetter pattern is expected over the next 7-10 days.
"Regional Radars"
(Courtesy of Wunderground)
"Regional Satellite"
(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)
"Winter Climatology/Forecast Discussion" (Updated 9/14)
Winter forecasts to date have been all over the place in ideas from extreme warmth to bitter cold. These varying forecasts are in response to a mediocre ENSO response in the central Pacific. Current SST anomalies are indicative of a weak to even non-existent El Nino. This is in contrast to weekly/monthly CFS forecasts that indicated early in the summer that a moderate to strong El Nino would be forming by this time this year. Obviously these prognostics have not come to fruition.
But there will be changes likely developing across the equitorial Pacific as both the Kelvin Wave and Easterly Wind Burst continue to move west likely raising SST's a few tenths of a degree as more El Nino-like condition settle in. Current CFS guidance continues to forecast a weak El Nino to dominate this winter's ENSO forecast with the core located across Nino region 3.4. The El Nino conditions will also likely begin to respond as +PNA ridging begins to grip across the north Pacific during a short term pattern change at the end of the month.
Before the excitment across the snow-lover's blogosphere begins to take hold, there are a few concerns going into this winter. Long term pattern trends (last 17/18 months) continue to indicate a -PDO across the north Pacific along with the possible fear of a returning Alaskan Vortex which is the kiss of death for snow across the east coast.
In the upcoming weeks features took keep an eye on will include the October Eurasian snowcover anomalies, north atlantic sea ice levels, SST anomalies in Nino Regions 1+2/3.4, and the development of general circulations features towards Alaskan and the Aleutian Islands.
For the time being it is too early to speculate on a substantial winter outlook, but it does appear that conditions will be heavily relient on teleconnections such as a -NAO. Given the abnormal warmth across much of the globe over the last year+ it will be difficult for a cold regime to take hold without substantial support from both the Pacific and Atlantic.
"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Average Date of First Freeze"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 9/14)
A wet and warm summer for most areas in the Northeast followed by cooler and dry weather here in September will likely provide fall foliage enthusiasts an excellent color season especially in comparison to last year's poor viewing. Most areas are showing generally healthy trees across the Northeast with limited leaf droppings due to drought this year. Recent cool nights and warm sunny days are helping to support the exhibit of brilliant colors expected in the coming weeks. Current network spotters are highlighting some 10-30% color response to the higher elevations in New England above 2500ft especially across the Catskills, White, and Green Mountains. Colors will begin to appear more widely over the Northeast likely in about seven days. If current weather forecasts continue with cooler weather expected, peak conditions will likely be slightly earlier than normal. Heavy rains and cloudy days as troughing grips the region could mute colors, although its affect is not expected to be too dire. Already colors are a good week or so in advance of last year where late summer-like heat was dominating the weather pattern.
Pennsylvania Fall Foliage Reports... Link
Northeast Fall Foliage Reports... Link.
"Long Term Discussion" (Updated 9/14)
Long term ECMWF and GFS prognostics indicate a change in the weather pattern across the northern hemisphere. As the polar jet begins to strengthen and the weather pattern becomes more supportive of middle latitude cyclones during the winter months, teleconnections upstream have a larger correlation to present weather across the contiguous United States. GEFS guidance suggests a wide spread in forecast PNA ridging, but it appears the +PNA will be supported in the upcoming pattern as increasing upper level heights maintains slight ridging in the north Pacific. The NAO will be sliding negative sharply for the first time in several weeks after generally a weak forcing period. These few pieces of support provide additional evidence to the expected pattern change by the later half of September. The H5 mean geostrophic flow (especially on the GFS) is more indicative of a pattern in mid January than that of September with an impressive blocking pattern near Greenland with steep troughing across the northeastern half of the United States.
Cooler temperatures will be expected and it is likely many areas along and north of I-80 will see their first frosts during this period. The latest GFS H85 thermal heights fall below 0C across the upper peninsula of Michigan during this period with boundary layer temperatures on a few degrees above freezing therefore raising the potential for a few wet snowflakes in this period. Given the recent state of the jet stream across the northern hemisphere, it is not expected to be a perminent pattern change for the long term. Therefore by extreme late September to early October, a warmer regime is likely to grip ahold across these same areas.
"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
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"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"
(Courtesy of WGAL)
Reader Comments
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Well, I will say the feature we had come through was very unique this morning. Quite the vort went right over top my head. It is tough to anticipate such events...but since they have been so awful it's tough not to pull the trigger on a rant now.
They can be very good here, but it seems to be only when they are interested...and my theory on the recent failures is a desire to model watch and transcribe and be done with it. I can't think of any other logical reason. I know they're not idiots, even if I call them that frequently, lol.
Interestingly enough it rained all night, not just when the echoes went overhead, and even composite barely shows that, which of course puts radar estimated precip way out of whack (we had over an inch to be sure, everything is flooded out and still gushing after the fact).
We just watched an early Tues morning mist slowly evolve into a heavier and heavier mist until it became rain and it persisted all night long. We can get those marine convergence situations here but they usually come and go - and are forecasted - and aren't punctuated by a nearly sub tropical looking vort coming through with very heavy rain.
Unique weather. Frustrating forecasters.
Well, have a good day all.
Thankfully, Goofy, no commute this morning. That would have been hell. Nothing good about ending up in NYC with wet shoes and pants and no real out from that other than to purchase new ones, of which I do not need.
Today I will continue a little yard project I had going on. Some plants died on one side of the house. On the other side a middle of the yard landscape bed was overgrown - so I'm transplanting from that to the other and will grass the leftover bed. Win scenario all around.
I am stealing your secret decoder ring but will give credit as required. Eh. Suspect your uncertain feelings re NWS, NHC and SPC may not be related. Joplin may have altered perception of risk to legal standing at SPC. NHC has been having an extremely poor year or years in predicting movements where SAL has played a role. Feels as if two different schools of thought are dulling it out from storm to storm. Or maybe consensus forecasts. NWS seems to be focused but something is missing. Could be as simple as the top guys are TDY on something and the experienced ones are not watching the tiller. Just have to watch things more carefully. As the little gal once said, " Toto, I don't think we are in Kansas anymore ."
Read below the photo for more info. I think any sled would work great there! The hill is high with excellent views and the slope is loooooooong and runs across a large field. It's perfect!
Ah yes...well spoken! It's usually about a month from the first snow atop Mansfield until it begins to stay in the valley.
Yep, Goofy, another day, another rant. Although I thought this one was a bit of a different one I guess they are all the same. Soon I shall do the (insert rant here) bit to spare you all.
As to whether or not the agencies failures are interconnected you bring up good points. The reasons I believe they may be is the following:
NOAA is the parent company. We know they have changed protocol just this very year, and I feel we are seeing a trickle down effect to the child companies. NHC, SPC to me absolutely showed this. How winter is handled will let (us) know if the HPC is following suit.
Another way to look at interconnection is models. Remember the tropical folks lauding the changes in the GFS earlier this year? And the ECMWF a few years ago? Seems to me all they do is upgrade the software packages for these models, which in essence is just manipulating the formula and recompiling, and you get different results.
The interconnection model wise would be an apparent desire to overly trust the model runs, pick one or those that you "like", and write a forecast based off of this - thus leaving out as TRP pointed out the observational analysis of the time (which would aide in weeding out model runs that couldn't verify if you did).
Then of course there is my own tin foil hat theory. One of which I do believe has some merit. The topic that shall not be spoken is quite strongly backed by NOAA. One way to reaffirm the possibility that these theories have legs is to look back at the seasonal forecasting and the number of warnings issued. If this is the case then this past summer is a treasure trove of "proof" for the "theory". Four moderate outlooks for a region that rarely sees more than half a dozen SLGT outlooks? Hey, must be that toic that shall not be named showing it's muscle. Of course this is convenient (again, tin foil here folks) in that one can just look back at the numbers, and not have to actually verify the events, to get what they are looking for.
So...that's my thinking on all of this.
I do know that the consistent failures of the NHC and SPC are most likely beyond the fact that weather is dynamic and unpredictable, and there's so much we still don't understand.
So, what is the true problem, and do they care to fix it? That would depend on the desires of the parent company.
Things that we do know will occur is:
) Models will be once again reformulated and perhaps this will solve some problems at the start.
) Forecasters could, if they choose, analyze every event as if it were a serious one, and possibly catch themselves before they trust a model run and forecast off of it.
) NOAA could potentially see the disastrous results it's overly aggressive forecasting protocols are causing, and go back to the previous way of doing things.
All three would be nice.
The failures have been great.
4 SPC MDT outlooks. Only 1 came anywhere close to possibly verifying, and I don't even think it did.
DOZENS of SPC SLGT outlooks. They rarely verified and in a typical summer we get half a dozen issued up here.
NHC predicting several disturbances (Ernesto, TD7 I think, Isaac) to become strengthening hurricanes in the Eastern Caribbean, a known place of negative genesis. Forecasting Isaac to undergo Rapid Intensification in the Caribbean, through the Keys, and in the Gulf. Wrong way Debby. Isaac's widely shifting cone from Eastern Florida to Houston. Constantly overly aggresive intensity forecasts on every system (Leslie). Keeping systems at a higher intensity when it was apparent they had greatly weakened (Isaac maintaining 60 in the Caribbean and Florida Straits when he was clearly well below that) (Ernesto in the Caribbean as 60mph storm when it was clearly a system that had dissipated at one time before regenerating in the Western Caribbean) (there are others)
We could go on, but this is getting to be a long post. I figure the idea is laid out there....and I'll do my best to stop whining. No promises though.
Can't wait for the first big snowstorm where Camp Springs and NYC have blizzard warnings up while Mt Holly and State College still have 24 hour old forecasts up calling for an inch. LOL remember that in 2010? I bet Blizz does. He sounded off more than I did on those mistakes!
Other trees and shrubs have a greyish-red/green or a greyish yellow/green or just a greyish/green to them.
I have yet to see any evidence that would point towards a brilliant foliage season. Everything seems kind of washed out.
I have some hope as this year we are getting the cool nights and some warm days and I believe that is a good recipe for more vibrant colors.
It's possible the 4 weeks of blistering drought backed heat we had in late July-August stressed everything too much.
As I was home this past weekend, the colors looked very dulled and muted. In fact most of the trees looked brown. But once you get into the southern tier of New York up through the Finger Lakes and New England, colors are just magnificent this year. Reds are quite brilliant!
That picture I took a few Novembers ago atop of Blue Mountain in Dauphin County, PA.
Edit: Obviously the NWS in State College didn't issue it for Sullivan county because I guess they already had a freeze, but if that were the case why would Binghamton issue one for the adjacent counties??
Link
There are a couple obvious problems with this article:
1) The claim that the cooling is because of an ozone hole doesn't make any sense because there are ozone holes at BOTH poles. So if that was correct we would see record ice in the Arctic this winter, which is extremely unlikely.
A more valid explanation might be something like "The circulation of water currents have weakened/changed recently between the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere and the antarctic". I'm not saying that's the case, just trying to point out one possibility.
2) "The hole makes Antarctica even cooler this time of year because the ozone layer usually absorbs solar radiation, working like a blanket to keep the Earth warm."
-It's scientifically incorrect to say that ozone acts like a blanket. Ozone merely absorbs radiation from the sun and also absorbs some radiation coming back up from earth, which is totally different than the insulation effect of a blanket. (i.e. a blanket blocks warm air from rising, ozone doesn't do that).
3) "Mark Serreze, director of the snow and ice data center, says computer models have long predicted that Antarctica would not respond as quickly to global warming as other places."
-There are no "accurate" climate models out there. If we can't predict the weather at any given point 2 weeks from now, how are we going to predict what the climate is like in 2 decades? This was probably just a couple out of the dozens of climate models that showed that trend and the rest were thrown out.
I have more, but need to sleep and don't want to hog the blog.
Great pics listener. That is beautiful country.
I will chime in on the topic at hand when I have a bit more time.
Just wanted to look in and say what a nice treat we have weather wise here. Yesterday was outstanding and I love the forecast:
TONIGHT
CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY
SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
===
Listener, amazing pics, just makes me miss Vermont. The wide open spaces, hills, etc - so nice.
Scroll down, Tom! I posted them last night! :-)
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