Widespread rain followed by much cooler Fall-like weather...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:29 PM GMT on September 14, 2012

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"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 9/14)
If you have not seen this image, I am sure you have heard that the current Arctic sea ice levels have dropped to the lowest extent on historical record.

It is a startling graph, and whether one believes this is in response to anthropogenic warming or not, it is critical to note that this will have some sort of feedback effect on present/long term weather patterns. The entire global circulation (Rossby Waves, etc.) act in a feedback circulation with direct correlations between a myriad of factors. For instance the expected cool blast across the contiguous United States (anomalous trough) will be connected to increasing upper level heights over the Arctic circle. In fact recent ECMWF ensembles highlight near record breaking heat to once again plague the region where sea ice is already at a record low. While warmer temperatures and increasing surface moisture have allowed new snow accumulations, most of the precipitation is occuring over open water instead of adding to snow depth on the ice. Therefore ice will have less insulation during the winter increasing the rate of melting during the cold season.

It is important to note that we are very uncertain about why this is occuring. Because everything is tied together in such a feedback loop, all of the cogs in the machine must fit perfect to maintain a stagnant atmosphere. But we all know the atmosphere is continously in a chaotic state seeking equilibrium. We are also uncertain of the effects this decline in sea ice extent will cause on our weather, whether it be anything significant at all. The computer models cannot accurately provide a answer to this question, but can only give us varying solutions depending on the change of 1 factor or so (this is what ensemble models are for).

We should be excited and alarmed over these recent records as they have never been seen before since the development of modern technological science. There is a lot to be desired in the field of long term forecasting, and this loss of sea ice is just another factor in predicting the upcoming winter.

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Weather Map"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Updated 9/14)
Friday- An upper level trough centered over the upper Great Lakes will rotate into the region by the weekend dragging an associated cold front on Friday. The best forcing and associated QPF will be located along a convergence zone behind the front with a cold pool of rain showers and high elevated thundershowers. The best chance for rain will be from the Finger Lakes northeast through northern New England where amounts in some areas may reach .25in depending on the track of any convective activity. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front will drier air sinking south into the rest of the region by Friday night. Highs will average above normal as H85s remain above +10C for most areas during the daytime hours reaching into the lower 80s in many areas. Brief strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in an isolated area in New York State during teh day as wind shear aloft 0-6km ranges from 20-30 knots. Poor mid level lapse rates and other dynamics should inhibit most activity.

Saturday- As the trough begins to center over the Northeast, much cooler and drier air can be expected as highs drop back to near normal values. A brief northwest flow (H85s sub +4C) over Lake Ontario may create a few instability lake effect rain showers towards western New York, but most areas should remain only partly cloudy.

Sunday- Sunday appears to be the nicest day of the stretch so far as temperatures remain slightly below normal with low dew points. Winds will be a bit calmer out of the northwest allowing downsloping to inhibit any lake-effect strato-cumulus clouds in northern Pennsylvania and western New York. Sunday night looks chilly with ideal radiational cooling conditions over the northeast as a 1020mb high remains directly over Pennsylvania. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s for the deeper valleys over the Adirondack, White, and Green Mountains where katabatic winds will allow the cooler air to swoop down from the higher elevations. Patchy frost is possible in the coldest spots. But for most areas lows in the 40s should be a sufficient forecast.

Monday- An anomalous trough begin to take shape across the Canadian plains will begin to drop down over the upper Midwest. Meanwhile the flow out ahead of this steep cold front with turn out of the west-southwest bringing an increase moisture to the boundary layer and slightly warmer temperatures. Increasing clouds will begin to lower especially across the Middle Atlantic as chances of rain begin to increase by Monday night and Tuesday.

Tuesday- A significant synoptic rain event is likely across the entire Northeast during the day Tuesday as a shortwave over the Dakotas drops south sinking with another wave over the south central Plains. PWATs will rise to near +2SD as gulf moisture begins to stream northeast out ahead and along of the advancing cold front. Current GFS/NAM/ECMWF QPF global means suggest a widespread 1.0" of rain for most areas during this stratiform event that will last 6-12 hours. A few model runs have hinted at a stronger low level jet fueling some elevated instability and therefore creating another severe low-topped squall line, but the gradient is not impressive and the dynamics are clearly displaced to the north. While this threat is something to keep an eye on, I do not think it is going to be a big deal. Generally it will remain just a nice soaking rain with an occasional gusty southerly wind.

Wednesday-Friday- The coolest air will remain displaced to the north as the trough only gives the Northeast a glancing blow. H85 temperatures will drop to near +2C or so, but the widespread frost temperatures will remain in the Great Lakes. Nevertheless it give a nice taste of fall to the region helping to boost leaf colors. Highs will struggle to reach 60F above 2,500ft during this period.

By the weekend a more anomalous H5 trough will sink south over the Great Lakes with heavy synoptic rains out ahead of the front in a similar progression as the previous week. In general a cooler than normal and wetter pattern is expected over the next 7-10 days.

"Regional Radars"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Winter Climatology/Forecast Discussion" (Updated 9/14)
Winter forecasts to date have been all over the place in ideas from extreme warmth to bitter cold. These varying forecasts are in response to a mediocre ENSO response in the central Pacific. Current SST anomalies are indicative of a weak to even non-existent El Nino. This is in contrast to weekly/monthly CFS forecasts that indicated early in the summer that a moderate to strong El Nino would be forming by this time this year. Obviously these prognostics have not come to fruition.

But there will be changes likely developing across the equitorial Pacific as both the Kelvin Wave and Easterly Wind Burst continue to move west likely raising SST's a few tenths of a degree as more El Nino-like condition settle in. Current CFS guidance continues to forecast a weak El Nino to dominate this winter's ENSO forecast with the core located across Nino region 3.4. The El Nino conditions will also likely begin to respond as +PNA ridging begins to grip across the north Pacific during a short term pattern change at the end of the month.

Before the excitment across the snow-lover's blogosphere begins to take hold, there are a few concerns going into this winter. Long term pattern trends (last 17/18 months) continue to indicate a -PDO across the north Pacific along with the possible fear of a returning Alaskan Vortex which is the kiss of death for snow across the east coast.

In the upcoming weeks features took keep an eye on will include the October Eurasian snowcover anomalies, north atlantic sea ice levels, SST anomalies in Nino Regions 1+2/3.4, and the development of general circulations features towards Alaskan and the Aleutian Islands.

For the time being it is too early to speculate on a substantial winter outlook, but it does appear that conditions will be heavily relient on teleconnections such as a -NAO. Given the abnormal warmth across much of the globe over the last year+ it will be difficult for a cold regime to take hold without substantial support from both the Pacific and Atlantic.

"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 9/14)
A wet and warm summer for most areas in the Northeast followed by cooler and dry weather here in September will likely provide fall foliage enthusiasts an excellent color season especially in comparison to last year's poor viewing. Most areas are showing generally healthy trees across the Northeast with limited leaf droppings due to drought this year. Recent cool nights and warm sunny days are helping to support the exhibit of brilliant colors expected in the coming weeks. Current network spotters are highlighting some 10-30% color response to the higher elevations in New England above 2500ft especially across the Catskills, White, and Green Mountains. Colors will begin to appear more widely over the Northeast likely in about seven days. If current weather forecasts continue with cooler weather expected, peak conditions will likely be slightly earlier than normal. Heavy rains and cloudy days as troughing grips the region could mute colors, although its affect is not expected to be too dire. Already colors are a good week or so in advance of last year where late summer-like heat was dominating the weather pattern.

Pennsylvania Fall Foliage Reports... Link

Northeast Fall Foliage Reports... Link.

"Long Term Discussion" (Updated 9/14)
Long term ECMWF and GFS prognostics indicate a change in the weather pattern across the northern hemisphere. As the polar jet begins to strengthen and the weather pattern becomes more supportive of middle latitude cyclones during the winter months, teleconnections upstream have a larger correlation to present weather across the contiguous United States. GEFS guidance suggests a wide spread in forecast PNA ridging, but it appears the +PNA will be supported in the upcoming pattern as increasing upper level heights maintains slight ridging in the north Pacific. The NAO will be sliding negative sharply for the first time in several weeks after generally a weak forcing period. These few pieces of support provide additional evidence to the expected pattern change by the later half of September. The H5 mean geostrophic flow (especially on the GFS) is more indicative of a pattern in mid January than that of September with an impressive blocking pattern near Greenland with steep troughing across the northeastern half of the United States.

Cooler temperatures will be expected and it is likely many areas along and north of I-80 will see their first frosts during this period. The latest GFS H85 thermal heights fall below 0C across the upper peninsula of Michigan during this period with boundary layer temperatures on a few degrees above freezing therefore raising the potential for a few wet snowflakes in this period. Given the recent state of the jet stream across the northern hemisphere, it is not expected to be a perminent pattern change for the long term. Therefore by extreme late September to early October, a warmer regime is likely to grip ahold across these same areas.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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230. listenerVT
4:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I read it. Any fall foliage pics?


Scroll down, Tom! I posted them last night! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
229. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:06 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
226. Pcroton
11:23 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Good Morning, Folks!

I will chime in on the topic at hand when I have a bit more time.

Just wanted to look in and say what a nice treat we have weather wise here. Yesterday was outstanding and I love the forecast:

TONIGHT
CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY
SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.



===

Listener, amazing pics, just makes me miss Vermont. The wide open spaces, hills, etc - so nice.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
225. TheRasberryPatch
11:12 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
wunder and original - it is truly amazing how those so called scientist will spin the information. No matter what the data says they seem to spin in towards GW. And it's a wonder why they lose credibility.

Great pics listener. That is beautiful country.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
224. listenerVT
5:39 AM GMT on October 12, 2012


I have more, but need to sleep and don't want to hog the blog.
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223. listenerVT
5:38 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
222. listenerVT
5:38 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
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221. listenerVT
5:37 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
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220. listenerVT
5:36 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Okay, Tom and all...here are some promised photos of this year's vibrant Autumn in Vermont! I took these photos on Columbus Day when we actually had sunshine!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
219. wunderstorm87
1:16 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Pcroton - check this article out. Truly amazing. Where do they come up with this stuff?

Link

There are a couple obvious problems with this article:

1) The claim that the cooling is because of an ozone hole doesn't make any sense because there are ozone holes at BOTH poles. So if that was correct we would see record ice in the Arctic this winter, which is extremely unlikely.

A more valid explanation might be something like "The circulation of water currents have weakened/changed recently between the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere and the antarctic". I'm not saying that's the case, just trying to point out one possibility.

2) "The hole makes Antarctica even cooler this time of year because the ozone layer usually absorbs solar radiation, working like a blanket to keep the Earth warm."

-It's scientifically incorrect to say that ozone acts like a blanket. Ozone merely absorbs radiation from the sun and also absorbs some radiation coming back up from earth, which is totally different than the insulation effect of a blanket. (i.e. a blanket blocks warm air from rising, ozone doesn't do that).

3) "Mark Serreze, director of the snow and ice data center, says computer models have long predicted that Antarctica would not respond as quickly to global warming as other places."

-There are no "accurate" climate models out there. If we can't predict the weather at any given point 2 weeks from now, how are we going to predict what the climate is like in 2 decades? This was probably just a couple out of the dozens of climate models that showed that trend and the rest were thrown out.

Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
218. originalLT
12:22 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
TRP,could be nice "spin doctoring". Maybe this shows the Earth is just balancing things out. That's what nature is always trying to do. So in balance, the Earth is generally staying the same over all. Things are just distributing differently for awhile, till it shifts back the other way some time in the future.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
217. TheRasberryPatch
7:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Pcroton - check this article out. Truly amazing. Where do they come up with this stuff?

Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
216. wunderstorm87
7:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Getting a good laugh out of the fact that Sullivan county is in a hole in the freeze watch (at the time of me posting this). Nice office to office coordination, NWS:



Edit: Obviously the NWS in State College didn't issue it for Sullivan county because I guess they already had a freeze, but if that were the case why would Binghamton issue one for the adjacent counties??
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
215. goofyrider
7:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Rant on:  I get a kick out of the NHC discussions.  For many of them over the last two years or more especially those events in the  15-30 N. & 40-70 W.,   area each new blend of the model guidance immediately show a sharp turn to the WNW, NW or NWN.  After at least 24-36 hrs of movement due west..  No discussion of the previous two or three predictions which also showed the sharp trend north.  No or little recognition of dry air streaming into the center inhibiting development.  Maybe we need an asterisk * to distinguish the upgraded criteria judgements ala the home run stats in baseball for the extended schedule.  Call it the satellite / CC /  adjustment.  The footnote  might read " This storm would not be reported   .... this alert ...  this warning  ... without the benefit of our new expensive equipment  ... our diminished staff who have been reassigned to meaningless analysis ... or our new guidance to confuse our audience regarding our ability to deduce the future and justify the mismanagement of more resources to non-essential agendas for attraction of funding.  Rant off.  Beautiful day here.  
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2772
213. Zachary Labe
2:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Zach - is your profile pic a South-Central Interior Mesophytic Forest in western PA?

Link

Link

That picture I took a few Novembers ago atop of Blue Mountain in Dauphin County, PA.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
211. Zachary Labe
1:47 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
New blog likely tomorrow morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
210. Zachary Labe
1:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Ah Foliage. The flaming maples are starting to do just that although they are losing their leaves pretty quickly as well.

Other trees and shrubs have a greyish-red/green or a greyish yellow/green or just a greyish/green to them.

I have yet to see any evidence that would point towards a brilliant foliage season. Everything seems kind of washed out.

I have some hope as this year we are getting the cool nights and some warm days and I believe that is a good recipe for more vibrant colors.

It's possible the 4 weeks of blistering drought backed heat we had in late July-August stressed everything too much.

As I was home this past weekend, the colors looked very dulled and muted. In fact most of the trees looked brown. But once you get into the southern tier of New York up through the Finger Lakes and New England, colors are just magnificent this year. Reds are quite brilliant!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
209. TheRasberryPatch
12:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Pcroton - I was watching Fox & Friends yesterday and they had a guy that just wrote a book about some stuff you are talking about. It's called Science Left Behind by Alex Berezow and Hank Campbell. Sounds like a good read.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
208. Pcroton
11:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Ah Foliage. The flaming maples are starting to do just that although they are losing their leaves pretty quickly as well.

Other trees and shrubs have a greyish-red/green or a greyish yellow/green or just a greyish/green to them.

I have yet to see any evidence that would point towards a brilliant foliage season. Everything seems kind of washed out.

I have some hope as this year we are getting the cool nights and some warm days and I believe that is a good recipe for more vibrant colors.

It's possible the 4 weeks of blistering drought backed heat we had in late July-August stressed everything too much.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
207. Pcroton
11:14 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good Morning. Another 45F morning - seems to be a very common number we have bottomed out at the past few weeks.

Yep, Goofy, another day, another rant. Although I thought this one was a bit of a different one I guess they are all the same. Soon I shall do the (insert rant here) bit to spare you all.


As to whether or not the agencies failures are interconnected you bring up good points. The reasons I believe they may be is the following:

NOAA is the parent company. We know they have changed protocol just this very year, and I feel we are seeing a trickle down effect to the child companies. NHC, SPC to me absolutely showed this. How winter is handled will let (us) know if the HPC is following suit.

Another way to look at interconnection is models. Remember the tropical folks lauding the changes in the GFS earlier this year? And the ECMWF a few years ago? Seems to me all they do is upgrade the software packages for these models, which in essence is just manipulating the formula and recompiling, and you get different results.

The interconnection model wise would be an apparent desire to overly trust the model runs, pick one or those that you "like", and write a forecast based off of this - thus leaving out as TRP pointed out the observational analysis of the time (which would aide in weeding out model runs that couldn't verify if you did).

Then of course there is my own tin foil hat theory. One of which I do believe has some merit. The topic that shall not be spoken is quite strongly backed by NOAA. One way to reaffirm the possibility that these theories have legs is to look back at the seasonal forecasting and the number of warnings issued. If this is the case then this past summer is a treasure trove of "proof" for the "theory". Four moderate outlooks for a region that rarely sees more than half a dozen SLGT outlooks? Hey, must be that toic that shall not be named showing it's muscle. Of course this is convenient (again, tin foil here folks) in that one can just look back at the numbers, and not have to actually verify the events, to get what they are looking for.


So...that's my thinking on all of this.

I do know that the consistent failures of the NHC and SPC are most likely beyond the fact that weather is dynamic and unpredictable, and there's so much we still don't understand.

So, what is the true problem, and do they care to fix it? That would depend on the desires of the parent company.

Things that we do know will occur is:

) Models will be once again reformulated and perhaps this will solve some problems at the start.
) Forecasters could, if they choose, analyze every event as if it were a serious one, and possibly catch themselves before they trust a model run and forecast off of it.
) NOAA could potentially see the disastrous results it's overly aggressive forecasting protocols are causing, and go back to the previous way of doing things.


All three would be nice.

The failures have been great.

4 SPC MDT outlooks. Only 1 came anywhere close to possibly verifying, and I don't even think it did.
DOZENS of SPC SLGT outlooks. They rarely verified and in a typical summer we get half a dozen issued up here.

NHC predicting several disturbances (Ernesto, TD7 I think, Isaac) to become strengthening hurricanes in the Eastern Caribbean, a known place of negative genesis. Forecasting Isaac to undergo Rapid Intensification in the Caribbean, through the Keys, and in the Gulf. Wrong way Debby. Isaac's widely shifting cone from Eastern Florida to Houston. Constantly overly aggresive intensity forecasts on every system (Leslie). Keeping systems at a higher intensity when it was apparent they had greatly weakened (Isaac maintaining 60 in the Caribbean and Florida Straits when he was clearly well below that) (Ernesto in the Caribbean as 60mph storm when it was clearly a system that had dissipated at one time before regenerating in the Western Caribbean) (there are others)


We could go on, but this is getting to be a long post. I figure the idea is laid out there....and I'll do my best to stop whining. No promises though.

Can't wait for the first big snowstorm where Camp Springs and NYC have blizzard warnings up while Mt Holly and State College still have 24 hour old forecasts up calling for an inch. LOL remember that in 2010? I bet Blizz does. He sounded off more than I did on those mistakes!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
206. listenerVT
5:48 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Tom! I have a heap of foliage photos from Columbus Day when the sun was actually out! It's nearly 2am and I'll have to upload them first, so can't manage it tonight. Coming soon! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
205. listenerVT
5:29 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Listener... Mt Mansfield looks beautiful. Soon the lower peaks will be dusted as well. I lived in Vermont for a year in the 80s and for a summer in 2005. I recall in the 80s visit watching the hills dust and getting frustrated storm after storm as rain fell in the valleys and the peaks got whiter and whiter. Then the one comes that gets us all. It was pretty neat.



Ah yes...well spoken! It's usually about a month from the first snow atop Mansfield until it begins to stay in the valley.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
204. listenerVT
5:27 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


listener - What is the mountain you took the picture? The sledding hill - how long of a run and any turns? Also, do you use regular sleds with metal runners on that hill - you know the Flexible Flyers and others. I think my sled back in the day was called Speedway.



Read below the photo for more info. I think any sled would work great there! The hill is high with excellent views and the slope is loooooooong and runs across a large field. It's perfect!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
203. originalLT
3:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Rain has stopped here, and the sun is coming out. Total precip. I received, was 0.40" LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
202. goofyrider
3:47 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Nice to learn that " P " has put away his rant and sarc for another day.   Yeah right.  We were near the top of the pack with 1.35  in.  Seems more to the S. ,  but itok'd so erratic.  Range from 1.4 in Point to  0.72 in BB.
I am stealing your secret decoder ring but will give credit as required.  Eh.   Suspect your uncertain feelings re NWS, NHC and SPC may not be related.   Joplin may have altered perception of risk to legal standing at SPC.   NHC has been having an extremely poor year or years in predicting movements where SAL has played a role.  Feels as if two different schools of thought are dulling it out from storm to storm.  Or maybe consensus forecasts.   NWS seems to be focused but something is missing.   Could be as simple as the top guys are TDY on something and the experienced ones are not watching the tiller.   Just have to watch things more carefully.    As the little gal once said, " Toto, I don't think we are in Kansas anymore ."
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2772
201. Pcroton
12:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Well, now the partly cloudy seems to be finally moving in.


Well, I will say the feature we had come through was very unique this morning. Quite the vort went right over top my head. It is tough to anticipate such events...but since they have been so awful it's tough not to pull the trigger on a rant now.

They can be very good here, but it seems to be only when they are interested...and my theory on the recent failures is a desire to model watch and transcribe and be done with it. I can't think of any other logical reason. I know they're not idiots, even if I call them that frequently, lol.




Interestingly enough it rained all night, not just when the echoes went overhead, and even composite barely shows that, which of course puts radar estimated precip way out of whack (we had over an inch to be sure, everything is flooded out and still gushing after the fact).

We just watched an early Tues morning mist slowly evolve into a heavier and heavier mist until it became rain and it persisted all night long. We can get those marine convergence situations here but they usually come and go - and are forecasted - and aren't punctuated by a nearly sub tropical looking vort coming through with very heavy rain.

Unique weather. Frustrating forecasters.

Well, have a good day all.

Thankfully, Goofy, no commute this morning. That would have been hell. Nothing good about ending up in NYC with wet shoes and pants and no real out from that other than to purchase new ones, of which I do not need.

Today I will continue a little yard project I had going on. Some plants died on one side of the house. On the other side a middle of the yard landscape bed was overgrown - so I'm transplanting from that to the other and will grass the leftover bed. Win scenario all around.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
200. TheRasberryPatch
11:32 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Another 0.12" of rain overnight. UGH, I wish this marine layer or whatever is riding along the front would move out to sea. We need to dry out a bit.

It was supposed to be sunny today and right now it is cloudy and humid
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
199. Pcroton
11:30 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
LOL it is POURING here now as that band comes north.

Everything is just flooded out.


This is the new Partly Cloudy?

haha
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
198. Pcroton
11:23 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Trying to make sense of it all:

SPC MDT RISK: Distant thunder. Outflow Boundary possible.
SPC SLGT RISK: Scattered showers.
SPC GENL RISK: Partly Cloudy
HEAVY RAIN: Scattered showers.
SHOWERS LIKELY: Passing drops.
PARTLY CLOUDY: Heavy Rain.


Okay, everyone got this? They might as well write our forecasts in Chinese. They'd be about as valuable as the ones I've had going all the way back into Spring.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
197. Pcroton
11:15 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Listener... Mt Mansfield looks beautiful. Soon the lower peaks will be dusted as well. I lived in Vermont for a year in the 80s and for a summer in 2005. I recall in the 80s visit watching the hills dust and getting frustrated storm after storm as rain fell in the valleys and the peaks got whiter and whiter. Then the one comes that gets us all. It was pretty neat.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
196. Pcroton
11:13 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Morning Goofy! Was just coming here to rant. I guess this is the new acceptable norm. Vastly over forecast the possibility of and the intensity of precipitation. When winter comes, if they follow these trends, we will have forecasts of three feet of snow every two days. Better to be safe than sorry! Good lord they have been atrocious going way back into Spring with this.


Sooo...let us recap:

FORECAST:

Saturday Night -- Sunday : Rain. Heavy at times.

Monday Night -- Tuesday : Showers likely.

Tuesday Night -- Wednesday : Partly Cloudy.


ACTUAL:

Saturday Night -- Sunday : Some very light scattered showers.

Monday Night -- Tuesday : Cloudy. Light mist began around 7am. Light mist and occasional drizzle or even a shower persisted.

Tuesday Night -- Wednesday : Moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Yard is ponding. Drains are Gushing. Streets are flooded. Rain steady moderate.


=====

If there are still some that cannot buy into my rants... ya never will. LOL!


Logical answer to all of this: There were several forecast models that received upgrades earlier this year. NOAA has also made it known they would aggressively forecast. Local forecasters have become extremely trusting/reliant on forecast models apparently just translating what they see into text without any true observational analysis.


---

Unbelieveable...and entirely indefensible.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
195. goofyrider
9:51 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Forecast was pt cloudy with a lows in the 40's.  It's been raining with a ESE flow since  1800 last night.  Might be up 0.6 in, have to wait. Temps in the 60's all night.  Post mortem should be interesting.   P looks you get a wet tail to the city.  
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2772
194. Zachary Labe
12:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Low of 39F is the coldest it got here in the Linglestown area to date. Highest snow accumulation I could find yesterday was 4" at Stowe, VT. But snow accumulations were reported as far south as West Virginia with elevations above 3000ft receiving flakes. Across New England the higher peaks had a pretty widespread 1-3in. This is near normal to maybe a week ahead of normal for receiving their first snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
192. TheRasberryPatch
12:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
I have received 0.04" of rain for the past two days. It would have been nice if yesterday would have stayed dry.

listener - What is the mountain you took the picture? The sledding hill - how long of a run and any turns? Also, do you use regular sleds with metal runners on that hill - you know the Flexible Flyers and others. I think my sled back in the day was called Speedway.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
191. listenerVT
4:07 AM GMT on October 09, 2012
First Snow atop Mount Mansfield

I took this photo on Monday from atop Casey's Knob aka "Mount Maim" ~ the local massive sledding hill that the people of the area saved when it went up for sale by raising the money to Save the Sledding Hill. It's a fabulous spot with panoramic views in every direction.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
190. Pcroton
8:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Afternoon, Folks.

Looking at radar it looks like once again the precipitation has a very strong Eastern component and one would be pressed to question how the heavier portions could come northward and affect us.

I don't see the low cranking up to the south and I am hard pressed to picture this occurring.

It would still appear there is a chance that if the low comes close enough to our coastal water that between it and the frontal system currently over Pennsylvania - we could see the radar fill in for a few hours during the overnight and give us this rain that is forecasted.

Tough to tell right now - I was thinking we would see some more organization to the south - but that has not yet happened.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
189. Pcroton
5:07 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Good call, TRP.

It is an unfortunate path it has all taken and we really got our first good look at it's results with this summer's continuously blown forecasting.

Not much to do but to a) complain and b) do the work ourselves.


Seems like the next shot of rain is a certainty now. Going to be a cold wet morning on the train platform that's for sure. What can ya do. Already got the more winter like gear ready to go for the AM.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
188. TheRasberryPatch
1:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
A beautiful morning. I love this kind of Fall morning. Temps in upper 30's and mostly cloudy conditions. This would be a great day to work outside cleaning the yard

Pcroton - I said that about a year ago. The forecasting doesn't rely enough on the observations and weather maps. The guys on TV in the past had an understanding of the weather maps and how to read them. Yes, they weren't always correct, especially when it came to winter storms, but I don't recall them getting the rest of the year wrong. It seems that everything is trying to interpret the models. We are going to lose our interpretation of observations in 50 or 100 years and leave everything up to the computers.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
187. Pcroton
12:07 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
NumberWise: They sure seem more unreliable. I can only guess as to why.

Too many elaborate tools at their disposal and an eagerness to trust them more than they should be.

A desire to provide pinpoint forecasting and high accuracy...has led to an attempt to provide high resolution forecasting...which has a much higher bust factor.

A simply lazy thought is let's say you like the NAM. You view a model run of the NAM. Nod in agreement and translate into text. And be done with it... well, then it turns out the NAM was off, and thus the forecast off.

To me this is over reliance on the models and I do feel this last event illustrates that.

Had they initially put forth the effort into analysis - as if this was a major storm - perhaps they would have caught the model solutions being incorrect - and provided a better forecast from the start ---- instead of a second corrected forecast once the event was well underway and established.


I don't know how else to explain away what appears to be worse forecasting now than in not just years, but even decades past.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
186. Pcroton
11:37 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Morning folks. Yeah LT about a tenth here and that includes the later evening showers of the second little hit.

Well, today a low is trying to get it's act together near the Carolinas and is supposed to move northward giving us rain this evening and tonight. We shall see how it plays out.


I feel like they over model watched and didn't put any effort into the initial forecasting. Was supposed to be a single entity event and a fairly long duration soaking rain at that.

Then when it came apparent the forecast wasn't coming true they revamped and went with the new split forecast of multiple disturbances. Well, perhaps if they had scrutinized the setup on Saturday in lieu of just model watching we could have had a more reasonable forecast out there to follow.

*shrug*

Ya's already know my rants well... so I'm just gunna say too many tools at their disposal and too easy to trust them as gospel. Perhaps we could eliminate the human element altogether and just write a few forumals to translate a model run directly into text? It would seem this is what occured anyway.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7678
185. originalLT
5:16 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Total Rain I received for Sunday was, 0.30"
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
184. originalLT
12:19 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Well surprise,surprise, the rain really filled in and is hitting us here with some solid moderate rain now, and for the past hour or so. I'll give new totals closer to midnight to see what we all received. Forecasting the weather sure can be difficult. Maybe we'll reach that half inch plus total after all! As Yogi said, "It ain't over till it's over".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
183. originalLT
7:42 PM GMT on October 07, 2012
Total precip. for my area, Stamford CT. so far is only 0.10" . Pretty disappointing. "P" was right!.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
182. NumberWise
5:45 PM GMT on October 07, 2012
Pcroton, I agree with you about the forecasts. The current conditions are correct - I can verify that by walking outside - but anything in the forecast is iffy.

One Tuesday during the summer I was talking to my brother on the phone. I mentioned that Thursday was supposed to be hot, and I checked the WU forecast. Yup, they said 90 for a high. A few minutes later, I went back to check the forecast for the rest of the week, and Thursday's forecast had changed - it now said a high of 100! Later in the evening, I checked again, and it had changed back to 92 for a high. I remember this one particularly because I was discussing it with my brother for a reason, but there have been many other times when the forecast has bounced around.

I was drawn to this blog, and to sullivanweather's blog when he was writing it, because the broad understandings of the weather patterns in our areas were more useful than the specific forecasts. I do think the forecasts are less reliable than they used to be.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1698
181. originalLT
3:48 PM GMT on October 07, 2012
"P", once again I think now you are right. The precip. really has more of an ENE component than a N to NE movement, so I think it will be out of the area closer to 3pm,rather than this evening, with only about a quarter of an inch or so of rain rather than anything much higher. I have always thought it is very hard to predict how much precip. one will get from a low that is supposed to form along and move up along a front. Does the low slow down the eastward progress of the front? thus giving one more precip, or does it, the front continue it's eastward progress? very tough call. In this case it looks like the front is moving eastward and not slowing down.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
180. originalLT
2:29 PM GMT on October 07, 2012
"P", I see that as I was typing mine(post#179)(got interrupted by a breakfast call from my wife!) You posted again saying somewhat what I said about the current Precip. situation. Again we'll see, I will post a precip. total later.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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