Severe Weather Chances Thursday for the Northeast

By: Zachary Labe , 5:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Share this Blog
1
+

A warm front will lift northward across the northern Middle Atlantic reintroducing higher humidity and heat for Thursday into the weekend. Increasing shear values as an upper level wave moves through on Thursday will enhance the risk for significant severe weather chances across northern Pennsylvania up through central New York State. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend over most areas.

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 7/24)
As of early July the word 'derecho' was ranked 7th for trending words on twitter. Link. This is courtesy of post-storm from the June 2012 derecho across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic causing one of the most widespread damaging wind tracks in recent memory. It affected millions across the eastern portions of the country. The explosion of popular social media has greatly influenced the way weather is related to the general public. Only just a few months ago, the majority of Americans would not have any idea the meaning of a derecho. Now the word is a commonplace in the internet language particularly for amateurs on weather forums. In fact the word is now often abused; for instance today's squall line advancing southeast over the Ohio Valley does not actually fit the word of derecho despite those definitions currently bouncing arounds on sites such as twitter today.

Credit must be given to The Weather Channel for sparking the general public's interest in weather and meteorology, but in the last decade many sources have directly improved acknowledgement for general weather conditions across the country. For the most part this has been for the better, but there has been an increase in ignorance in severe weather warnings for the general public. Many false alarms have allowed many to ignore other weather warnings such as severe thunderstorm warnings. Many people believe they are issued when any thunderstorm is threatening a region.

There are too many weather advisories/warnings being issued and the definitions are too complex to relay to the general public. This is causing general confusion and ignorance. The system needs to be reworked and this is not just an education problem... The problem exists in the original architect of the system.

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 7/24)
A cold front on Tuesday will continue to dip south across the Middle Atlantic sparking a few broken lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 0-6km shear values around 30kts may enhance a small threat of damaging winds particularly towards the Washington, DC-Baltimore corridor. Winds will begin to turn to the north and northwest filtering in drier and cooler air. High pressure will take control on Wednesday for the best day of the week. Sunshine is expected region-wide with near normal temperatures. By Wednesday night a warm front will begin to lift north across Pennsylvania with increasing heat and humidity. Scattered thunderstorm development along the front may enhance convective probabilities for portions of western Maryland and western Pennsylvania overnight. A slight risk of severe weather is possible in those areas with the highest threat being damaging winds.

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will spark the development of a MCS that will advance east into New York before dawn on Thursday with heavy rain. Current NAM/SREF progs indicate QPF totals in excess of 0.5in. This complex will weaken as it advances east into New England by Thursday morning. Existing boundaries and the cold front trigger will initiate thunderstorm development later in the day across Pennsylvania and New York with possible severe weather development given the favorable right front entrance from the low level jet positioned directly over the region. Highest shear is a bit displaced to the north, but should be enough to give way to a widespread damaging wind threat as a potential squall line develops. H85s will rise above +20C on Thursday with highs reaching the upper 90s across southern areas in Maryland and the Washington DC area. Dew points in the lower 70s will increase heat indices to near heat advisory criteria values. PWATs near 2.0in will also enhance the threat of heavy rain especially across Pennsylvania. The highest threat for convective activity will be across northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York. To the north in New England will be an area of more stratiform rain showers, while areas in the south experience a strong warm mid level cap.

Recent GFS and ECMWF runs highlight the potential for a second MCS to move through on Friday across Pennsylvania with heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, but for now this threat remains a bit more uncertain. Temperatures will begin to lower towards the weekend, but higher instability will enhance the risk for pulse thunderstorm development each day. Most areas will be dry and the weekend will not be a washout. High pressure will advance over the Northeast by early next week with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Sunshine will prevail by Sunday and Monday.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/24)
After an extensive dry period across much of the Northeast, a basin-wide rainfall gave relief to many areas nearing D0 or D1 drought conditions. Areas that received the most rainfall were across central and eastern Pennsylvania up through New England. Continued drought conditions exist across central New York state, western Pennsylvania, and parts of the Delmarva. These areas have received little precipitation this year after a nearly snowless winter. Main-stem waterways are running quite low in this region. Isolated may be on the way over the next seven days as several convective chances of precipitation will exist with isolated locations receiving 7-day QPF totals in excess of 2.0in while other areas receive little. Latest GFS/NAM runs indicate the potential for a MCS to move through New York state into New England with widespread heavy rain QPF totals. This may help the drought-stricken regions around the Finger Lakes. This complex will likely weaken as it moves east of the Hudson River. Elsewhere precipitation chances will remain less organized and more isolated in nature. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday through early next week.

Temperatures will average near normal for the next seven days with highs generally at 90F or slightly below depending on location. The combination of rain chances and cooler conditions will be beneficial for those late-summer gardens. Many farmers have been saved from poor seasons courtesy of the last widespread stratiform rain. Corn and soy bean crops were generally saved across much of the region.

My vegetable garden has had an excellent year. Currently my corn stalks are beginning to produce small ears and appear to be cross-pollinating very nicely. Pepper and tomato crops have been slow producers despite the hot weather. I believe my main problem was that I planted them too late in the season. I also am currently growing watermelons, eggplant, cucumber, zucchini, yellow beans, and the typical herbs (basil, cilantro, chives, oregano, parsley).

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 7/24)
Severe weather probabilities are beginning to increase for Thursday across parts of the Northeast. A warm front will begin to lift north across the region allowing warmer and more humid air to advance into southern New England. Meanwhile an intense upper level low will begin to rotate east across New York state. Current guidance including the latest 12z NAM highlights PWATs rising to near +2SD as far north as the Finger Lakes associated with a MCS that will move through the overnight hours on Wednesday. Given the unfavorable diurnal hours and slightly displaced dynamics at that time, it is likely severe weather chances will remain low with this complex. The track will likely be across New York state before weakening as it advances east into southern New England. Heavy rain will be the primary threat along with continuous lightning. Total QPF may approach 0.5-1.0in for those areas.

Thursday morning will feature lower CIN as an area of subsidence exists across New York and New England as the MCS advances off the coast. Widespread strato-cumulus will likely prevent any morning surface instability. As the low level jet begins to intensify, the warm sector will begin to destabilize once again. Existing boundaries left from the MCS and approaching trough will act as the trigger for afternoon thunderstorm development. 0-6km shear values near 40-55knots and SBCAPE in excess of 2,000j/kg will be the primary ingredients for a severe thunderstorm threat. Current HIRES guidance suggests the development of a squall line with a widespread damaging wind threat across Pennsylvania and New York. A SPC moderate risk of severe weather is possible across these areas. The primary inhibiting factors are the questionable stabilization after the passage of the MCS along with the extent of the cloud cover.

For the time being it appears like a widespread severe weather outbreak is possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the highest threat across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. Stay tuned!

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (August)
As El Nino conditions continue to develop based on the latest SST reports from the equatorial Pacific region, lingering La Nina-based weather patterns will continue to dominate across the contiguous United States. Despite a near record low NAO for much of the meteorological summer. This has allowed the higher heights to develop across the central United States where persistent above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue through much of August. Little to no pattern change is expected allowing drought conditions to worsen. The Northeast long range forecast shows some upper level troughs rotating through the region with northwesterly flows for 1-3 day periods. This cooler weather will most directly affect parts of New England, while the Middle Atlantic continues in a warmer regime.

Temperatures for the most part should average above normal for the month of August across the entire Northeast around (+)1F-(+)2F. Precipitation chances will be on the increase with normal to slightly above normal rain given the slightly more active northwesterly flow with chances of rain showers and thunderstorms. Given the convective nature of the precipitation, some areas will see localized D0-D1 drought conditions particularly in areas that are already dry such as central New York and portions of Delaware.

Guidance also continues to favor a relatively quiet tropics for the next few weeks with limited activity. Given the current position of the upper level ridge over the Midwest, a higher than normal probability exists for a tropical storm to near the eastern seaboard should one develop. This of course will enhance rainfall amounts for the month over the Northeast. None the less the general theme will be a warmer than normal pattern, but less hot than it has been with increasing rain chances. The worst heat waves of the summer are likely over for the Northeastern part of the nation.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 9
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 21

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Watch- 2
Flash Flood Warnings- 0
January precipitation- 2.82"
February precipitation- 1.90"
March precipitation- 1.41"
April precipitation- 1.74"
May precipitation- 7.47"
June precipitation- 3.30"
July precipitation- 5.29"
August precipitation- 0.00"
Yearly precipitation- 23.93"

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 9
Excessive Heat Watch- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90F days- 22
100F days- 1
Highest Temperature- 102F on 7/7

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 261 - 211

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

261. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
They have us all in the slight category for severe storms Sunday into Monday.

I think they are digging the trough too far south considering it appears like it will just continue to zonally march across the northern states in the coming days...so I wouldn't expect anything too severe at this time.

Looking at forecasts dropping us 5-7F after the front's passage would also support the idea of a not-very-strong trough.

Isolated storms today. Horrendous air quality again. Believe me, you can feel it in your lungs, it's not nice out there.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
260. Zachary Labe
3:34 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Haha well I'll take the four hour ride to Albany over the 8 hour trip to Lake Ontario. I visited Penn State and I honestly really did like it, I thought State College was a nice town and it was a nice campus and atmosphere. Shame that place is in shambles now. I might just go with Rutgers. At the same time that's too close to home and I want to experience different places. But what else is there? UW-Madison? Too cold. Florida State? It doesn't snow there. Plus I'm looking for an open minded campus if you know what I mean. Ugh hate being so picky.

Millersville has a great meteorology program; seemed very intimate where everyone knows everyone in the major. Although again it is close to home for you and probably is a bit of a conservative student population compared to other schools. Rutgers is probably your best bet for what you are looking for and probably will be very similar to the atmosphere you would have had at Penn State. Plus you'll get instate tuition which is definitely worth it. I have heard of several recent graduates from there and they have no complaints for the meteorology program. It is a big school and you'll probably meet lots of great people too.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
259. wxgeek723
9:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- Wow, what a set up! I am beyond jealous; it looks like a main climate reporting station at the airport. Thanks for posting!


I visited SUNY Oswego; the campus is pretty neat sitting right on Lake Ontario and the meteorology program is very well-known. They are also building a state of the art new science building which should be done in a few years. A few issues of mine were the poor location of the school which is near the depressed town of Oswego, the campus was a bit run-down, and I was not sure the out of state costs were worth it. SUNY Albany is probably the best for meteorology, but the campus is also voted one of the ugliest. Either two though would be excellent choices in meteorology programs. Definitely visit both if you are considering any.


Haha well I'll take the four hour ride to Albany over the 8 hour trip to Lake Ontario. I visited Penn State and I honestly really did like it, I thought State College was a nice town and it was a nice campus and atmosphere. Shame that place is in shambles now. I might just go with Rutgers. At the same time that's too close to home and I want to experience different places. But what else is there? UW-Madison? Too cold. Florida State? It doesn't snow there. Plus I'm looking for an open minded campus if you know what I mean. Ugh hate being so picky.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3689
258. Gaara
4:37 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
A coworker brought in some videos of fish flopping around in the severe street/stream flooding up in Naugatuck, CT. A couple thunderstorms sat over the Housatonic river valley in Northern New Haven county for about 4 hours yesterday, dropping >5" of rain. One gauge reported 8" /hr and 6.01" total. 20 miles away, Milford got a few sprinkles and not much else.

LT: have you checked out wxedge.com ? They have been gearing up their analysis lately with all the (overhyped) seasonal tstorm activity. The website is a bit of a turd, but the local forecast discussion is relatively worthwhile.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 395
257. Pcroton
11:28 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
Over the last 180 days we are over 12 inches in defeceit. Delaware, NJ, Long Island...all in horrendous shape the last six months. Well below normal precip.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
256. Pcroton
11:24 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
Mason that is fantastic. Congrats for living out a little dream I think we all had as a kid.


Yeah Goofy...what a bust. I did wind up with some steady light rain on and off so I got "something". And I will toss it into the very empty bucket of "something better than nothing".

It's one thing to miss out on a thundershower due to a broken line but I have seen torrential downpours hit everyone around me in a very tight circle the past eight weeks. What have we gotten? The 20 minute moderate shower from the SPC's mod risk of death day. We got the 5-7 minute pretty heavy shower from the Freehold storm of DESTRUCTION NEVER BEFORE SEEN ON SUCH A SCALE!!!!111one (well, a street or two of broken trees). And a couple of quick light showers from decayed systems.

Kinda sad really. The capper was watching steady water flow down my street to the storm drain from the torrential training downpours a few football fields to our west.

Yep...it's that kind of year and I recall having one of these not too long ago. 4-5 years ago maybe? Something like that where we just got nothing but northern and southern and western monmouth kept getting hit every 2-3 days.

*shrug*

Looking at the http://water.weather.gov/precip/ website and toggling the various 14-30 day profiles (observed, defeceit, percentage) you can see a very glaring yet small pocket of south central monmouth county stick out like a sore thumb. We dont have to look far to know who lives in that little special pocket. Hah.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
255. Zachary Labe
10:52 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
Mason803- Wow, what a set up! I am beyond jealous; it looks like a main climate reporting station at the airport. Thanks for posting!

Quoting wxgeek723:
Well I was under a Severe T'storm Warning, and radar indicated a storm over my head. Yet, all I got is a sunshower.

Hey Blizz, when you checked out SUNY, which campus did you look at again? And might you remember which one is the best for meteorology?

I visited SUNY Oswego; the campus is pretty neat sitting right on Lake Ontario and the meteorology program is very well-known. They are also building a state of the art new science building which should be done in a few years. A few issues of mine were the poor location of the school which is near the depressed town of Oswego, the campus was a bit run-down, and I was not sure the out of state costs were worth it. SUNY Albany is probably the best for meteorology, but the campus is also voted one of the ugliest. Either two though would be excellent choices in meteorology programs. Definitely visit both if you are considering any.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
254. Mason803
12:12 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
I would like to share some pics of my coop station in Cashtown, PA. I've been wanting to post these for some time, but never got around to it. Here they are:



MMTS is closest followed by Davis VP2 then my Rainwise LR with seperated senors. Tower is exactly 33ft high ( oh yes, it's painted red and white asos style)



From left to right, Fisher and Porter rain guage, standard rain guage and 4" cocarahs guage



davis anenometer on left and rainwise on right. rainwise is more sensative and davis is better in high wind events



here's everything in one frame!
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
253. wxgeek723
10:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Well I was under a Severe T'storm Warning, and radar indicated a storm over my head. Yet, all I got is a sunshower.

Hey Blizz, when you checked out SUNY, which campus did you look at again? And might you remember which one is the best for meteorology?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3689
252. goofyrider
8:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Raindrops
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2890
251. Pcroton
5:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Ah...I see now. This storm was lined up perfectly with my location so it just decides to dissipate instead of veering off.

LOL I give up.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
250. Pcroton
5:08 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
dev to my ssw
lets see if we get this ond
looks and sounds mean

earlier heard and saw heavy rain just up street
runoff came down street in torrent
got nothing lol
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
249. Gaara
4:52 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
The SPC issued a rare (for our region) day 5 notice



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES IS
SIZABLE FROM THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNING THE STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO BE ACCELERATING EAST OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...WITHIN A PERSISTENT BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH
REGARD TO THE BASIC TRENDS LIKELY TO IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST... AS CYCLOGENESIS
PROCEEDS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS COMING WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN BY SATURDAY...THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WARM SECTOR FLOW AND SHEAR MAY BE CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON.
AS DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY... STRENGTHENING
OF LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS APPEARS INCREASINGLY
PROBABLE AS FAR SOUTH AS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PERHAPS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH
MORE THAN 30-40 KT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN EVOLVING ORGANIZED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...EITHER LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 395
248. Pcroton
3:53 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Pretty pathetic watching torrential rain in a band from my NNE to my N to my NNW to my WNW to my W to my WSW to my SW to my SSW... all within less than a mile... and with a motion that will refuse to bring any of it any nearer to me.

Pitch black skies in 180 degrees of direction with loud thunder.

Motion will not bring it to me. I need redevelopment of cells further east...by what.. three football fields perhaps. LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
247. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


0.28" here. I was in Hershey when it started and it came down real hard. At my house though it wasn't nearly as hard. The past 3 weeks we have definitely come out of the drought conditions that had the grass dry and crunchy. Back to cutting grass normally again.

I do hope we still get sunny hot weather this month. I've really enjoyed the pool this summer.

I was down working in the Hershey area too, so I was not home for the storm. Quite a bit of spotty wind damage up here though with some people still without power. Grass is growing like wild up here; amazing how green it is for early August. Some big time heat is likely coming next week it appears.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
246. Pcroton
1:46 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
You folks out in PA seemed to have some interesting localized events the past two days with showers popping up through the mountains.

Meanwhile you have to wonder if the low that went through SE Mass and is now up by Maine this morning began to go a little hybrid in nature. This morning's satellite imagery depicts a system that resembles a decayed tropical system.

Pretty neat satellite signature.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
245. TheRasberryPatch
12:47 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
0.87in of rain last night with lots of lightning from the thunderstorm


0.28" here. I was in Hershey when it started and it came down real hard. At my house though it wasn't nearly as hard. The past 3 weeks we have definitely come out of the drought conditions that had the grass dry and crunchy. Back to cutting grass normally again.

I do hope we still get sunny hot weather this month. I've really enjoyed the pool this summer.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
244. Pcroton
12:34 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Hi LT. Speed is essential for them to get here with any semblence of their core intact.

The other way is the ones that stay further offshore, dont go through the curving process, and just ride the 70 degree line straight from the tropics to the North East coastline. Those are jusssst far enough away from the NC-NJ coastlines to not start that continental draw and ingestion of dry cool stable air.

People always harp on the water temperatures up here....and I kind of feel it's all about the continential air flow.

Any system that comes up and comes at Cape Hatteras before turning north up the coast induce this flow.

The ones that form in the Caribbean and just come due north further out to sea are the dangerous ones. For us here in NJ we would need a system to mis-behave and come north up that 70 degree line and then turn NW as it got parallel to the Delmarva.

Anything that approaches or nicks Cape Hatteras will always get knocked down.


====

Well, looks like prolific rain producers are possible throughout the region today. We're doing better after finally getting showers and the one downpour Saturday eve with the weakening cell that came through late.

Yet, we still need more soaking rains here.

Looks like I nearly got my wish of an early August nor'easter! The low that neared SE Mass last night looked nice...and they could have a repeat with the second low.

For us here it doesn't appear we will be influenced by them.

Soon enough I suppose.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
243. Zachary Labe
10:44 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
0.87in of rain last night with lots of lightning from the thunderstorm
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
242. listenerVT
4:39 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
WOW! After thinking I was in the sunshine all day today, I was in the kitchen getting ready for work when suddenly the room became quite humid. I looked outside and the rain was pouring down on my car with the windows rolled down. I got soaked remedying the situation, finished getting ready, then got soaked again getting into the car (this time with towel in hand, at least!). As I drove to work the storm worsened, thunder rolled, rain pelted sideways, cars were pulling over and some drove slowly with their flashers on. So I got to work about two minutes late and called inside to say I needed another minute until the worst of the deluge abated. Everyone was nice about it, as they always are. A few hours later when a coworker arrived to work she said there had been no rain at all at her house. As the crow flies she lives about a mile from me...!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
241. listenerVT
5:28 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Glad to hear everyone is receiving some rain. Nothing here yesterday, but everything is very green from recent rains so not too much of a disappointment.


No rain here this week, yet. There's talk of something tomorrow.

They were saying 93F for Friday and 97F with a heat index of 104F for Sunday, but I see they've backed off to 90F for both days. I'm eager for what appears to be on the horizon for the following week: upper 70's by day and 50's by night! That's my idea of perfect weather, rain or shine!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
240. originalLT
3:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
Well put "P" on the hurricane situation as they come up the coast. It seems to me that the only way we here in the NE could be hit with a strong Cat 2 or higher would be for the storm to behave like the 1938 storm did--run up the coast at 40-60mph foreward speed so the storm would not have that much time to degrade. The strongest storm I can remember clearly was Donna in 1960. I was living in New Rochelle NY then and it did quite alot of damage.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
239. Pcroton
2:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
Morning all.

Spoke to some people in the know and the gas station roof was down the road from me. I looked at it. That's suspicious and even though a wind gust did do it in it should not have.

The Eatontown hail was a short lived burst of pea sized according to someone who knows...this was in line with my very short lived experience with it at the onset of the heavy rain.

Freehold NJ, where the storm was peaking on radar before waning rather quickly as it then passed through my region, did suffer damage. Yet to those I spoke to they say the media as usual is sensationalizing it. The damage that was done was quite severe but it was down a narrow corridor - and not this gigantic widespread event as reported.

Freehold has been hit several times by the bigger storms so far this summer...and then those storms constantly waned after leaving that area. So some of the damage that is occurring is due to repeated stress and strain from several events.

Here is an article on the Freehold damage... there are still ~6000 households without power there.


I find it interesting the one lone true severe weather event over the past several weeks, of which saw numerous warnings and watches and such, occurred after a watch expired, on a day tabbed to be relatively calm "in the wake of the severe weather earlier in the week."


It just goes to show, as discussed, they are not forecasting well at all.




wxgeek....Irene's problems stemmed from the NHC having no credibility whatsoever when it came to both forecasting of and real time evaluation of the wind power of the storm. Irene's forecasts from this region were born off the assumption she was to go Cat 4 after leaving the Bahamas (she never did, was probably cat 1, borderline at times) and that she was to pass right over NC in short time (she did not, she got hung up as some do, looped, stalled, etc...for 8 hours).... and no adjustments to the forecasting was made.

NWS followed NHC advice, issued 55-75 sustained, 80-100mph gusts, in all it's forecasts. Of which never panned out. One squall line neared hurricane force in gusts in some coastal communities early that morning in a short 30 minute or so time frame.


I do agree that the hurricane situation up here is a bad one due to repeated whiffs on forecasting. The thing is - they are always over forecasted - for I swear even the most seasoned mets get caught up in the storms as they approach NC and expect them to maintain the same structure and appearance, and just lose a little bit of gas due to cooling water temps.

What is ALWAYS ignored is that the systems frequently get hung up on or near NC, and most importantly to me, is that when these systems begin to ingest the continential air they always undergo a rapid structural collapse and they begin to emulate nor'easters.

Nor'easters, as we all know growing up as kids, before we really understood weather but watch the maps... we always would see the big red L approach us, say "wow, we're only halfway through" and then as soon as that Low passed the system shut off.

The hurricanes undergo this same exact structural change as they approach VA and northward --- and this is absolutely ignored time and again.

Why...is anyone's guess. Sensationalism? Getting caught up in storm excitement? I don't know but it's a repeated mistake and it translates to forecasts that never pan out and then a general public that mocks the next forecast, and again...with good reason.


It is what it is....and as I have said one day "they will be right" and that's the day everyone has a very bad day.



Well, have a good day folks, had some nice short lived tropical like downpour-ish-showers yesterday...and even a very brief one this morning.

A/C has been off since yesterday evening. Won't put it back on until tomorrow morning before I head to work in the city. Good sleeping.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
238. Zachary Labe
12:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I am surprised you didn't get any yesterday. I got 0.39" yesterday evening.

I was down in Hershey and even there it did not seem to probably more than a tenth of an inch so it must have really hit right on top of you.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
237. TheRasberryPatch
12:49 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Glad to hear everyone is receiving some rain. Nothing here yesterday, but everything is very green from recent rains so not too much of a disappointment.


I am surprised you didn't get any yesterday. I got 0.39" yesterday evening.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
236. originalLT
9:09 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Looking at the radar and Sat. , at least my area is in the clear , I think for the rest of the day and tonight, here in SW CT. Had a brief afternoon shower around 3-3:30 pm , not too much rain, a couple of hundreths of an inch and a bit of thunder. Now the sun is out brightly. Baro. is 29.96R, calm wind.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
235. wxgeek723
5:56 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
I actually agree with your rant P. People really develop a sense of complacency when the warnings are overhyped and do not deliver. My biggest fear with this problem in NJ is not severe thunderstorms though, it is actually hurricanes. Especially after Irene blew it last year, no one's going to really prepare or evacuate if a serious threat looms in the next few years. They'll just assume it is sensationalism.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3689
234. goofyrider
4:59 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Storms continued to develop over the coastal plain to our north and south from 2300 to 0100. Nice light show. Some " Heat Lightning ". Some shots within a mile north and south of us. Total precip. 1.65 in. at my location. 1.27 in at an automatic station to the SSE, just off the beach maintained by the Stevens Inst., and 1.16 to the north in Bradley Beach. ( my 2 COCORAS unit continue to indicate 20 % or more higher than the automatic units). It is rare that this location indicates less precip for a wide spread event. Any thoughts?

Think wind speed is tough to argue. A bit like rain. Remember the wind damage to trees and structures is a function of height. Most wind is measured at 10 meters. Away from slopes trees etc. The wind speed, direction or vector ( 3 dimensions ) can vary or be influenced by surface features. Any one who walked down Liberty St before 9/11 has experienced the turbulent flow and downdrafts induced at street level. 451p noted the failure of an exposed roof. Lift and Suction

As pc has noted the Mt Holly mets are sometimes more open with their " Why before the What ". If their clients are laughing at the forecast without understanding the why then they are doomed. Better our way than the lack of accuracy and info elsewhere. Rant and sarc off. Sun is burning past the overcast. :-))
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2890
233. originalLT
3:18 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
As I mentioned yesterday,(Post #191), Long Island NY had some tremendous rains from slow moving, training T. Storms that developed right over the Island and slowly moved ENE. Well, Upton NY on Suffolk CO. (eastern Long Island), received 5.52" of rain. That was right at the weather bureau site, so that reading should be accurate.I wound-up with 0.55" yesterday. Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
232. johnbluedog69
2:46 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
We finally received some rain and nice thunderstorms last night in southern Delaware.
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
231. Zachary Labe
1:56 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Glad to hear everyone is receiving some rain. Nothing here yesterday, but everything is very green from recent rains so not too much of a disappointment.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
230. MarylandGirl
12:06 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Last night we FINALLY got some rain...every storm for the past couple weeks has split when it got near us and went north or followed the river to the south and then east. Farmers around here are desperate. Although it did not rain for the number of hours we need it did rain!!! It sounded wonderful......
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
229. Pcroton
11:56 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
A strange muggy-cool feeling this morning. There is instability up by the NY/PA/NJ border region that is rotating southward into northern NJ. Could touch off some showers or isolated storms through the mid-afternoon before it then pulls easterly.

Meanwhile yesterday's late storm, which came 40 minutes after the watch expired, had some minor tree damage here or there through the region. Whether it qualifies as official 58mph+ severe weather damage is unknown and unlikely.

It would appear the four bangs I heard could have been due to a gas station roof collapse not too far away. Odd given there was little wind. It must have been a very narrow column by the time it reached here. The very tiny core of the system passed just north of here by maybe a mile.

"FREEHOLD RT35ANDWYOFF RD. GAS STN PARTIAL ROOF COLLAPSE ON AUTO"

Ok, well, R35 and Wycoff is in Eatontown if that was it. Freehold would be R34.R33 and Wycoff...and it' not really Freehold (our townships are named same as some towns and overlay other towns..its messy)

...I will find out what that was today and where.


When I got the couple pings of small hail it would appear the town just to me ENE, Eatontown, reported 1" hail. However I am assuming this is not official. We have to remember these SPC storm damage maps are not official severe weather reports. Anyone can report them. I reported pea sized hail once and hours later it was on the map...so well you get the picture there. If it was I will know about it today and will report back.

Power was taken out pretty good just to my west in Freehold where around 5,000 are still without power today. When the storm hit there as we waited we did have two distinct power flickers and I assume that is when they went down. The JCPL map of outages does show the path of the storm quite nicely (and it jumps right over my house without incident hah!)




Earlier in the day Atlantic City repored 69mph.

"69 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRPORT."

And last night's storm when it went through Trenton recorded 63mph which is what prompted the cells to be Severe Warned throughout their trek eastward.

"63 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT TRENTON AIRPORT."


Those are two...only two reports that officially meet the severe weather report criteria. You can go back to Super Wednesday or whatever it was with the 400+ "severe wind damage" reports, and if the manpower was there to investigate every one, you'd probably find at best 10% actually acheived the 58mph+ threshold needed to be officially designated a severe event.

This has truly been the month of NON-EVENTS when you think back to all the strong language and mutiple SPC warnings and watches issued prior to them.

I am not sure what the issues are...perhaps the criteria needing to be met to issue severe warnings has been drastically reduced over the years.

Perhaps the satellite data and it's rendering and interpretation thereof that data (theta-E, supercell index, cape, lift, shear, cin, etc....) has to be re-evaluated with new guidelines (preferably stricter to prevent what now appears to be CONSTANT crying of wolf) so these situations can be avoided in the future. Maybe our forecasters have become so reliant on computer modeling all they do is glance at it briefly, say "sounds good" and writes wording to match? (oooo cape is 4000. big storms. issue watches. put feet up and sip coffee!)

People around here are laughing...flat out laughing at it all saying "They've told us every other day we were going to get damaging storms and we haven't even had rain but three times!".

That is not good for when the day comes the warnings are legit...nobody is going to listen...AND WITH GOOD REASON. I have always defended the difficult career that is weather forecasting but I am finding it impossible to do so given the ridiculously high bust factor that seems to continue to rise.


Anyways....I should write a blog on it, but well... the ears it needs to fall on are clearly deaf. Us on this blog know of the issues at hand...and why beat a dead horse.

I've been whining about it for weeks anyways. Sure you're all tired of that. LOL

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
228. originalLT
2:52 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Thanks for the report "P".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
227. Pcroton
2:50 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Radar estimates are 0.6" to 1.0". It could have it was very heavy but not for long.

Also to add there was hardly any wind at all. 15mph maybe 20.

Seemed the purple echo went jusssst to our north and was ever so small by the time it got here.

So whoever got wind, if they got wind, it was a very small track of it.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
226. Pcroton
2:46 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Well, we got about 5 minutes of very heavy rain.
Lightning was frequent until....it got pretty close and then it really subsided. Had one nice close bolt. After an earlier bolt we heard four not so distant booms that resembled explosions not thunder...so not sure what got hit but it did not like it. No sirens...so.

Power outages are being reported from the storm. Several thousand reporting out and counting.

2750 in Freehold just to our west by 10 miles or less which is where the storm was peaking before it began to decay.

Heard a few pellets of small hail at the onset but that stopped pretty quickly has the heavier rain moved in.

Better than nothing for certain. Probably most rain out of any one storm in over eight weeks here and we probably didn't get too much here. Road was rushing water and yard was ponded for a bit tho.

And with that...maybe we get another tomorrow with the remaining instability.


Good night.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
225. originalLT
2:38 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
At 10:37 , "P", you should be right in the "thick of it"! Looking foreward for your report of the storm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
224. Pcroton
2:10 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Looks to be coming right at me now..the core that is.

20-30 out.

Cell E4
68dbz, 40kgVIL, 70% severe hail, 1.5in dia.

Lightning is intense right now. Frequent.


I think TRP sent this to me. Thanks! (I think)

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
223. originalLT
2:06 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Hoping it moves more easterly for ya "P"!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
222. originalLT
1:55 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
"P", it may be diving just South of you, but you might still get the northern part of it(the cell).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
221. Pcroton
1:19 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
The last chance looks pretty nice right now. I can see distant flashes. It is about 45-60 minutes away. A long time to go.... would be nice to get it given the striking out here all day and generally all summer really.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
220. bwi
12:21 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Storms staying to the south of DC today it seems. I can hear the thunder banging away to the south, but doesn't look like we'll get rain on the NE part of town.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
219. Pcroton
11:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
east PA looks quite lit up
final chance for me as that boundary slowly makes it into nj
impossible to say other than it wont reach here for several hours
given how everything has dissipated today as it got close be it from south this an and west early pm and north just now...well you get the picture
crazy how this one small geographic location has been a graveyard
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
218. goofyrider
11:42 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
Tenth inch this time
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2890
217. goofyrider
11:42 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
Tenth inch this time
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2890
216. TheRasberryPatch
11:07 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
The storm is to my ENE, but the rain is sticking around my house. The sun is out to my West, but still getting light rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
215. TheRasberryPatch
10:31 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
I am getting an old fashioned Summer Thunderstorm. This is the most powerful in terms of lightning and thunder this Summer. Rain is coming down hard. So far 0.35" in 15 mins.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
214. Pcroton
10:10 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
lol
i would go with dissipation followed by redevelopment to my south
:)

they look like great rain producers
way too slow moving to track or forecast

perhaps as the boundary sags south we will get a window of favorable enviro to open up

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
213. originalLT
10:03 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
"P", there is a storm near Sommerville NJ that is moving in your direction, maybe, if it hold together, it will reach you in 2-3 hours? On second thought ,it may slide by to your North--What else is new?!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
212. originalLT
9:18 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
The Rain started by me about 3:45PM got mod. to heavy for a brief time, tapered down to a drizzel, now has picked up again with a heavier area or cell moving in. Some lightning but nothing too bad. Had so far 0.45" of rain, still coming down. Not much wind at all. Barometer is 29.91 steady.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
211. Pcroton
8:42 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
Not even one tenth of an inch for the day so far. Dry under the trees.

Aside from isolated regions getting some flooding out of the isolated slow moving cells... this is a joke.

There is nothing out there south of I78 to warrant an MD or a Severe TStorm watch let alone warnings.

If you want to put out a Rain threat MD or some flood warnings in isolated areas that would suffice.

This widespread damaging events they keep calling for make them look like complete idiots time and again.

Honestly...it is pathetic. All they do is cry wolf every damn day and if one branch falls within an entire state they feel vindicated to go ahead and cry wolf the next day.

Either their equipment is god awful or the software that renders the satellite information is god awful...or what benchmarks and guidelines have been set to call for a severe weather outbreak are way over done.... or these guys have no business forecasting the weather.

Not sure what it is, perhaps a combination of the whole thing, but when your failure rate is over 90% for an entire summer.... well, you suck. No sugar coating it.

/rant

---
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388

Viewing: 261 - 211

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
34 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations