Hotter weather ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:57 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 19

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Watch- 2
Flash Flood Warnings- 0
January precipitation- 2.82"
February precipitation- 1.90"
March precipitation- 1.41"
April precipitation- 1.74"
May precipitation- 7.47"
June precipitation- 3.30"
July precipitation- 2.54
Yearly Precipitation- 21.18

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 7
Excessive Heat Watch- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90F days- 20
100F days- 1
Highest Temperature- 102F on 7/7

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Quoting bwi:
104 degrees at DCA last hour -- 103 at 6pm. These are the worst days for bike commuting! I have to soak through my clothes with water BEFORE I get on the bike to try to stay cool, at least for a little while.


Nasty derecho headed for you!!



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93. bwi
104 degrees at DCA last hour -- 103 at 6pm. These are the worst days for bike commuting! I have to soak through my clothes with water BEFORE I get on the bike to try to stay cool, at least for a little while.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1636
This MCS rolling through Ohio looks pretty intense. It looks like it will miss all but the southern parts of PA though.
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Oh no 8am interesting
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Major severe weather outbreak tomorrow with late-night MCS?
so 13:00UTC is what? 10pm EST? (Obviosuly model time not always real world time ;) )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
storms would be nice blizz
damage not so much
nws updated and put in 40% for that time frame
wondering why they have lagged behind spc products
as to the mcs. it has been some time but a recurring mcs in route and strength would not surprise me.
seem to recall a recent summer that had 3 or 4 in a row that slid from toronto to baltimore on consecutive days
i would suspect we could see a similar repeating event
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Possible weak tornado in Hershey?
Tree Damage

Chocolate avenue really was hit hard too with many of the kiss lights down, trees down everywhere, and power out. No rotation on the velocity scans last night though, so my bets are with a strong downburst.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Possible weak tornado in Hershey?
Tree Damage
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Major severe weather outbreak tomorrow with late-night MCS?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Bad storm here last night, but sounds like the worst of the damage is along rt39 in Hershey where traveled is advised to be avoided. 0.35in of rain here, so that certainly helped.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
spc has us in slght severe risk Saturday
language reflects this in hazardous wx outlook
but local nws zone product has sunny.

whats going on?

maps show dry cold front draped over us mid Saturday

i am confused. lol

agsin apologies. tablet texting here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
decayed remains of the mcs core coming thru
breezy and some neat intrrmittent c-c lightning
never got the core of any of the small popcorn like storms from earlier so not sure how strong the warned cells were buy being on the fringe i think some mayhave been intense. lot of c-g lightning and it was breezy
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
Quoting Blizzard92:
I am crossing my fingers!!!

It has been a while since there has been a late night thunderstorm.



i absolutely love the 3-6am surprise boomers
and they never disappoint. always great lightning and loud thunder shows
atmospheric thermal profiles just seem perfect every time with them

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
big win for the lone forecaster who predicted this. shame his viewpoint was not put into the local nws zone forecast.

nice am thunderstorm


p. tinton falls nj
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
A strong bow echoed storm is hitting me. Woke me up

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northern Cecil County in northeast Maryland...
this includes the city of Elkton...
New Castle County in northern Delaware...
this includes the cities of... Wilmington... Newark... Middletown...
southern Chester County in southeast Pennsylvania...

* until 545 am EDT

* at 443 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. This storm was located near
Glen Roy... or 19 miles southeast of Lancaster... and moving east at
30 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We had an absolutely crazy lightning show here at PSU. The cloud tops I'm seeing on radar are probably the highest I've seen this year. A storm is popping up in Lancaster county now (345am) with over 53kft cloud tops!

Also...it's almost 80 degrees at 330am in Harrisburg?
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We had a couple of nice mid-summer MCSs out of the NNW last year that were absolutely beautiful to watch on flat land.. Just seeing the strikes in the clouds from afar with otherwise-clear skies is pretty awesome. I need to find a good lookout spot for the lower Housatonic valley at some point.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
I am crossing my fingers!!!

It has been a while since there has been a late night thunderstorm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
that storm was great morn. the lightning was intense but the core stayed about 1-2 miles north. the downpour lasted approx 20 minutes. streets were filled to the curbs.

no wind tho. just a short lived gusty period prior to the line sliding in.
almost didnt make it as the line stretched out more e-w but a new surge of convection fired on the sw edge and that is when it slid southward

glad it got thru before I had to head back north


hoping for something tonight. not sure what to expect

some thinking dry but some saying there is good elevated cape above 700mb that could prove supportive of a michigan mcs dev. that could ride the split flow and get the western and southern portions.

still see nothing to support that idea yet but it is early.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
Despite a bullish GFS, Upton seems to think the MCS that was forecast for tomorrow morning will now be very minor, if it has any effect at all. Still keeping my fingers crossed, though. Going with 9 friends to a Yankees game tomorrow night. Looks like we lucked out and it will be t-shirt weather all evening.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Quoting originalLT:
Got down to 52F Tues. AM , 58F this morning. Just a note to my WU friends here, I will be away, for ten days. My son, presented my wife , on her 60th birthday, two tickets for a cruise to Alaska!.(Good thing she's taking me!). On Thurs. we leave in the early morning for a flight to Seattle WA. Then on Friday we board the ship. for a one week cruise. Then fly back Sat. July 7th. I'll give a first hand "weather report" on how it was as we sailed North up the coast all the way to Skagway Alaska(which is NNW of Juneau). Hope everyone has a great and safe 4TH of July. Take care, LT Stamford CT.


I am jealous also. I vacationed in Alaska 11 years ago and had a great time. We flew into Anchorage and drove to Talkeetna, Denali, Seward and Homer. What a blast. We fished twice and climbed Exit Glacier in Seward.
I HIGHLY recommend going there while young and visiting and taking a bit longer than 7 days. I thought you had to be retired to vacation in Alaska. I was so wrong. I liked that we weren't stuck on a ship or train. We could do whatever we wanted. On the bus through Denali I videotaped a mother grizzly and her 2 cubs rolling around and playing. Just a small bit of the wildlife.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
Quoting HeavySnow:
Have a great trip up the Alaska Marine Highway LT!

WU has it at 108 for me on Friday. Come on!

Wunderground is using a new computer algorithm system to make their own forecasts instead of relying on the NWS. You can turn this system off by the clicking for the NWS forecast instead on the seven day. The algorithm uses the PWS network here on wunderground to try to understand microclimatology, but so far the system needs a lot of tweaking. Accuracy levels though are pretty high for areas of high concentrations of PWS's that have been at the same location for an extended period of time.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Quoting originalLT:
Got down to 52F Tues. AM , 58F this morning. Just a note to my WU friends here, I will be away, for ten days. My son, presented my wife , on her 60th birthday, two tickets for a cruise to Alaska!.(Good thing she's taking me!). On Thurs. we leave in the early morning for a flight to Seattle WA. Then on Friday we board the ship. for a one week cruise. Then fly back Sat. July 7th. I'll give a first hand "weather report" on how it was as we sailed North up the coast all the way to Skagway Alaska(which is NNW of Juneau). Hope everyone has a great and safe 4TH of July. Take care, LT Stamford CT.

Extremely jealous! Have a wonderful trip!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Have a great trip up the Alaska Marine Highway LT!

WU has it at 108 for me on Friday. Come on!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yesterday we got 1.11" rain and today at least .40" more.

Today's was a steady rain; it sounded like someone had left a hose on.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5775
Got down to 52F Tues. AM , 58F this morning. Just a note to my WU friends here, I will be away, for ten days. My son, presented my wife , on her 60th birthday, two tickets for a cruise to Alaska!.(Good thing she's taking me!). On Thurs. we leave in the early morning for a flight to Seattle WA. Then on Friday we board the ship. for a one week cruise. Then fly back Sat. July 7th. I'll give a first hand "weather report" on how it was as we sailed North up the coast all the way to Skagway Alaska(which is NNW of Juneau). Hope everyone has a great and safe 4TH of July. Take care, LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
55F yesterday and 59F here this morning.

Yesterday was a very breezy and Springlike day. Something you'd expect in late April
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
56F yesterday and 55F here this morning
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Quoting Blizzard92:

It would be an awful week to be down in Disney World with all of the rain from the tropical storm; total washout! Some areas of Florida may see upwards of 24in of rain.


Wow, that bad, huh. After last year I prefer not to be anywhere near that type of rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
Scary stat. Blizz. I can't imagine how bad it might be in the greater Tallahssey area. That huge arc of rain has been over that area all day!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Did you know that...
On this day in 1749, residents of Massachusetts were asked to fast due to a severe drought. Anchorage, Alaska recorded its hottest ever temperature of 86 degrees in 1953. In 1998, Melbourne, Fla. was in the middle of a heat wave that would see 22 days in June set record highs.


I was in Orlando for a week at the end of June 1998. Temps would get into the low 100's with very little humidity. They had a lot of fires and they weren't getting their usual afternoon thunderstorms. You didn't want to be outside unless you were in a pool. Universal had misters to keep you cool when in line. Disney just had fans and I think still do.

It would be an awful week to be down in Disney World with all of the rain from the tropical storm; total washout! Some areas of Florida may see upwards of 24in of rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Second line of showers wasn't much either. Between the two lines I picked up about another 0.15" of rain. On Blizz's NE radar you can see a nice upper level low spinning around, I guess the low is centered in NE NY State, or VT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
62. bwi
No precip expected for DC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1636
Not much from the line that came thru. Looks like my former home area, New rochelle NY took the brunt of the line. I see another line forming to my North and West, at present, doesn't look too imposing. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Line is just moving in now.. First rumbles of thunder. I'm not expecting much given the very limited amount of daytime heating. Hartford and Middletown seem to bearing the brunt of this one.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Hi Gaara, yeah I see that line too. I think it will be by me in Stamford CT. in about 45-60 mins or so. I'll let you know what I get. As of now the sun is in and out, temp. up to 72F, Baro. down to 29.65". Wind is generally W, 3-8mph.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Upton is pretty lazy today. Their 144PM AFD still talks about the line of storms from this morning as still being in the CWA and makes no reference to the new line sparking up and making it's way into the area now.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Did you know that...
On this day in 1749, residents of Massachusetts were asked to fast due to a severe drought. Anchorage, Alaska recorded its hottest ever temperature of 86 degrees in 1953. In 1998, Melbourne, Fla. was in the middle of a heat wave that would see 22 days in June set record highs.


I was in Orlando for a week at the end of June 1998. Temps would get into the low 100's with very little humidity. They had a lot of fires and they weren't getting their usual afternoon thunderstorms. You didn't want to be outside unless you were in a pool. Universal had misters to keep you cool when in line. Disney just had fans and I think still do.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
Rain and thunder
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3345
Quoting Blizzard92:
0.01in of rain here, ugh...


Same here....is that it for the day?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
Also here in Stamford CT. we got a pretty good thunderstorm this morning. Lights went out for a few seconds, frequent lightning. Had a total of 0.90" of rain. Temp. down to 63F, Barometer down to 29.74"F No severe wind gusts however. Looking at Blizz's supplied satellite map, I think we'll see some sun here by 1:30-2PM
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Pretty nice storm this morning. Reports of small hail from a friend up in Shelton. I slept in an extra 10 minutes to listen to the pouring rain and a tree down on route 15 near Trumbull caused me to be about 20 minutes late for work. A relative tells me lightning caused a house fire in Killingworth, too.

Meanwhile, the big border collie hid in a corner while the little one just bounced around looking for hugs.

Given the residual cloud cover, I'd be surprised if anything significant occurs this afternoon.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
0.02in of rain here, ugh...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
torrential rain
continuous c-g lightning
56f and plummeting
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
tfalls nj
about to get creamed
green black skies
warnings out
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 105 Comments: 24515
The SPC has all of southern CT in a slight risk for tomorrow afternoon and early evening (hail, wind). Currently getting some refreshing light rain.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Perhaps it's just a computer glitch, but WU has my high on July 2 at 109. A bit high maybe?
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47. bwi
I'm hoping we get some moisture from Debby up in the DC area. Better that than the 100 degree heat they're projecting for later this week.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1636
Quoting Blizzard92:

Some light rain shower chances tonight and tomorrow morning, but nothing too major. Cooler start to the week, but potentially reaching 90F by the week's end. It looks quite dry.


Thanks Blizz. I guess I won't mind a week of being dry. Since April the grass has been cut at least once a week. Just a bit more watering of potted plants and gardens

do you think Debby will make it into our area?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
The only rain I got was around 9am and it wasn't much. About 0.02"

I thought for sure we would get a good soaking. Oh well.

Any thoughts for the upcoming week, Blizz?

Some light rain shower chances tonight and tomorrow morning, but nothing too major. Cooler start to the week, but potentially reaching 90F by the week's end. It looks quite dry.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
Anyone have thoughts on Debby
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6285

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