Hotter weather ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:57 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 19

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Watch- 2
Flash Flood Warnings- 0
January precipitation- 2.82"
February precipitation- 1.90"
March precipitation- 1.41"
April precipitation- 1.74"
May precipitation- 7.47"
June precipitation- 3.30"
July precipitation- 2.54
Yearly Precipitation- 21.18

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 7
Excessive Heat Watch- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90F days- 20
100F days- 1
Highest Temperature- 102F on 7/7

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344. vdb0422
1:22 AM GMT on October 06, 2012
Winter weather predictions for the Northeast? Particulary Washington D.C.?
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
343. Zachary Labe
12:50 AM GMT on July 24, 2012
A few trees and power lines down about 2mi south of me; road temporarily closed.

2011 UNK LINGLESTOWN DAUPHIN PA 4034 7679 TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT EARL DRIVE AND COLONIAL ROAD (CTP)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
342. listenerVT
11:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
RIP Sally Ride. So sad. We met her during our home schooling years.
http://www.wptz.com/news/national/Sally-Ride-firs t-American-woman-in-space-dead-at-61/-/8869978/156 50502/-/us2v9g/-/index.html?absolute=true

She died at age 61 after a 17 month battle with pancreatic cancer. :-(

My brother-in-law is now age 62 and still waging a (so far) 19 month battle with pancreatic cancer. Rough.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
341. listenerVT
11:28 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Fabulous massive thunderstorm ensuing overhead!!!

We lost power for about a minute, after the lights blinked a lot. Since it's still hot and humid here, it was a relief when the lights came back up immediately!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
340. Pcroton
9:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
and poof they go
the moment they extend the watch to include me the storms begin to wane
lol
thunder was good and increasing but has since stopped
may see redevel but running out of room
may occur to my south
couple more areas of interest are there tho so the plug of optimism wont yet be pulled
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
339. weatherman321
9:30 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Seems like are chance for stronger storms here in western pa, looks to be on the decrease. Nothing formed here, despite the wording from last night and this morning.. heres the latest discussion...

PITTSBURGH AREA
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKY HAS CLEARED IN WAKE OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT NOW RESIDES
IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE ATMOSPHERE DESPITE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS MUCH OF THE MORNING IS STILL MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE
HODOGRAPHS AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOIC PARAMETERS GREATER THAN
ONE...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOT PREDICTED TO CROSS UNTIL
DUSK...PROB OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATLY DIMINISHING.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC MODELS SAVE FOR HRRR
ILLUSTRATE DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING...WHILE HRRR
PORTRAYS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CLARION TO DUBOIS
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH PRIOR TO 0Z. WE ARE MONITORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IL/IND ATT WHICH
WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN OHIO OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT ECNTRL
OHIO...PARTS OF NRN WV...AND SWRN PA AROUND DAYBREAK TUES.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
338. Zachary Labe
8:22 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
0.39" of rain here from the quick moving storm
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
337. anduril
8:15 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Some nice heavy rain/thunder in the Camp Hill area and a decent rain but that was about it. I hope this isn't the only chance we get tonight!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
336. Zachary Labe
8:03 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Getting hit pretty hard here currently with heavy rain and vivid CTG lightning. As usual the CTP radar is out, by the WGAL radar shows a nice small little line moving through the LSV. Report of a tree down on a house in Cumberland County.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
335. originalLT
7:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
I think you are right P, now it seems to be "bubbling" or moving more SE again. The sun has broken out again here in SW CT. Temp. has jumped up to 85F. Baro. falling at 29.90". Very light NE to SE winds.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
334. Pcroton
7:37 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
seems to be hopping around some
not sure what to expect
thinking a lot of rapid collapse and redevelopment within clustet
some times redevelopment occurs on boundaries and is ver rapid
can cause cluster to jump 10-20 miles if you will
plays tricks on you
no tracking this as continuous entity
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
333. originalLT
6:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Looking more closley at the cell it is moving more due South than SE, so it may pass you to the West.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
332. originalLT
6:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
P, seeing that T.Storm in NE NJ moving SE but I think it will miss you, hope I'm wrong!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
331. Pcroton
6:26 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Well this is interesting....went looking to see if an MD was set up for the persistent cluster - and instead found a much earlier MD covering a broad area.

====

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA INTO MUCH OF NY...VT...WRN MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231632Z - 231800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WHERE STRONG HEATING WAS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE CU WAS
FOCUSED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NY INTO
CNTRL/ERN PA. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG EXISTS WITH DECENT
PARCEL ACCELERATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS MARGINAL SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/23/2012


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
330. Pcroton
6:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Yep.

Meanwhile the cluster that was in NE PA has spent all late morning and early afternoon migrating into NW NJ. Saw some dbz topping 68 earlier now down to 62-63.

Whether or not this cluster migrates southward or translates/redevelops a few times as it moves southward - is unknown for those of us in Central NJ and southward.

Impossible to forecast. I will say if you see sudden redevelopment jumps southward with it then it has a chance. If it is to just continue migrating southward as is then it is less likely to make it.

Meanwhile a sea breeze has attempted to touch off some local mischief. I have some nice mini towers and dark clouds- and a cell did pop about 10 miles off shore. Generally speaking these isolated events are also an unknown.


...Just gotta watch and hope I suppose. Still haven't put the A/C back on despite it hitting 90F with 60% humidity. Just stubborn...and tired of hearing the thing.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
329. PhillySnow
3:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Agreed again, P. I wish it would be okay for the mainstream forecasters to say "we don't know" more often, and to not have to make it seem exciting and dramatic when it's not. We can do that in the technical conversations, with discussion of the factors involved and then each person comes to their own forecast, really. That's what I love about the blog!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
328. Pcroton
2:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Hi LT, good to see ya. I was watching that earlier batch today and wondered if it would slip into your region or not.

It appears what is left behind is a bit washed out and a scattered threat along that boundary. We will see what it does as it sags southward through the day. Unfortunately you may have seen your chances go down due to the earlier complex.


Philly, yep, we're just on the same page with that one. It would appear they have trouble forecasting the triggers both in intensity and location over the past few weeks.

While that can be difficult I think they are not doing a good job with the wording in the local products. Either jumping the gun or waiting until it is too late to change their wording.

Those of us who frequent this blog have the ability to look beyond the local products and understand the technical discussions - the general public does not - and one can easily understand why weather forecasting is easily the most mocked career the world over.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
327. TheShovler3
2:29 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
We had some pretty decent storms this morning laid down about 1.25" and the next ones rolling in now. Still haven't found out if the NWS ever ruled anything out over by here but i went exploring and i found several tin roofs that were peeled back by the wind and i snapped up some photos that i'll upload at some point.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
326. PhillySnow
1:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
I'm with you, P. We had one batch of rain and it's been overcast, humid and dry since then. Forecast has been 50 - 60% chance for days, and nothing. Looks like rain, feels like rain, and then nothing. Must be a very difficult forecast to make.

Good to hear from you, Pittsburgh Nurse. And congrats on your rain, LT.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
325. originalLT
12:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Rain just really picked up, coming down hard now, but should not last too long.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
324. originalLT
12:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Interesting discussion by you P. Right now a good size thunderstorm complex is just scraping by me to my N and NE. Looks like it originated in the Catskills and slid over towards the Hudson Valley, then into CT. mostly JUST N of me. as it moves southeastwards, by I am getting some rain and thunder off in the distance to my NNE. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
323. Pcroton
11:04 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:
I was down in Atlantic County, NJ today...place that was hard hit by the derecho a few weeks ago. Large trees uprooted, plenty that still have not been cleaned up. Saw a lot of trees that were also totally defoliated, and a few houses with torn shingles. Such a shame really.


That was the one that claimed the two young campers' lives when a tree came down on their tent.

I think that system marched from Ohio through NJ and believe it was responsible for 17 deaths.

I forget what the Maryland one tallied.

We've had some enormous death tolls from these systems this summer. It has really been out of the norm, yet, as we all know in this region, we do have those "once in a decade" scenarios where we are laid to waste just like any other part of the country that is no stranger to severe weather such as that.

The oddity is to have SEVERAL such events all in one season. Yet, before conclusions are drawn, we all must remember we are in a very dynamic region in regards to weather. We have a lot of extremes between flood and drought and blizzard and calm and heat and cold. Although it tends to be a 2 year on 5 year off type of thing...we've gotten the back to backs before or longer stretches of either calm or stormy.

It's been a bad season and it will be nice when it draws to a close. Unfortunately it may end in a widespread damaging event.....the summer back breaker.

History serves it is due in anywhere from 2 to 4 weeks. August 7- August 21 is the time frame..it is one of the few things we can tend to set our watches to so to speak in this region.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
322. Pcroton
10:59 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
And once again nobody can make up their minds. I suppose make every and any forecast possible over the course of two days, one will pan out, and they can feel like they got it done.

Reason for rant? Language for this afternoon once again ramped back up --- to where they had it two days ago. Gusty winds, heavy rain, etc.

You know....after what we've seen time and again over this summer... I will believe it when I see it. My faith in forecasting has been reduced to near zero hour. Not 72, not 24, not even 3. 0 hour.

It's warm, it's humid, but the triggering mechanisms have been poorly forecast time and again. What's to say they got it right this time.

I will say there is one forecaster who did a recent discussion and boldly laid out the fact that they (meaning he) could not properly forecast the triggering mechanism for a particular event about a week ago and he left the door wide open for uncertainty ranging from a severe thunderstorm to partly cloudy for any given person in the forecast area. So at least someone is willing to divulge such information.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
321. wxgeek723
3:31 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
I was down in Atlantic County, NJ today...place that was hard hit by the derecho a few weeks ago. Large trees uprooted, plenty that still have not been cleaned up. Saw a lot of trees that were also totally defoliated, and a few houses with torn shingles. Such a shame really.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3464
320. Pcroton
11:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2012
Hi bwi. I think the official terms would be "improvement" via drought monitor and I would agree with that.

Meanwhile tonight and tomorrow...they continue to remove wording for the forecast. Now nothing overnight and we're just looking at late afternoon scattered showers and storms. 30%.

Quite a far cry from the 30 hour window of 60% showers-storms soakers.... down to a 6 hour window of scattered.

Hit 87F today, forecast was 80. Yet the AC stayed off...just closed windows until the sea breeze kicked in.

Not sure why forecasting has been so difficult in such a seemingly bland and stagnant pattern but - apparently it has been.

The way I see it - it has been going on all season long - wording leads you to believe the pattern/drought buster is here - and it just all goes up in smoke time and again. When you're locked in these types of season long patterns that's when logic should dictate forecasting and not computer models.

If the last one dried up entering your region you can bet the next one will as well.

Know when we know the true changes are here? When you awake to Northern Michigan being in the 40s behind the front and it's still in the 80s here with Thunderstorms in the forecast.

That, or one of those fantastic August nor-easters.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
319. bwi
8:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2012
I don't want to speak too soon, because a couple weeks of 95+ could dry us out again, but yesterday's persistent showers pretty much broke the summer drought in my immediate areas (College Park, Beltsville, Greenbelt MD area). We had some heavy downpours and lighter showers almost all day long -- every time the radar make it look like they'd move off, the showers would redevelop right over top of us. Our trees weren't suffering before, but it was just on the cusp of not enough rain. Now I think we're set for the summer hopefully. Great to get soaking rain in mid July!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
318. originalLT
2:15 PM GMT on July 22, 2012
Pitss.nurse, hope you are feeling better. Brilliant sunshine here in Sw CT. this morning, but I see on Blizz's supplied Sat. photo that you guys in the LSV are under some clouds, but no showers yet. Hope everyone has a good Sunday.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
317. pittsburghnurse
2:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2012
Hi Everyone! Long time gone from this blog. Environmental allergies kicking up a storm. It's been so humid I guess it's all the mold spores just hanging suspended in the still air. Summer has a smell. It's heavy and musky. Reminds me of my childhood catching grasshoppers in a jar down Georgia way. Fireflies have gone. Crickets and cecadas have moved in and loudly let us know they're here.The robins are busy at their insect buffet. Foliage has maxed out and dead leaves are falling. Summer is moving along. Thoughts starting to turn to fall for some relief but summer living is easy and sweet so feelings are mixed.

Mad storms came in this week. Flash flooding on Friday closed major roadways. It doesn't rain much here in late July but when it does, watch out!

Hope all is well.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
316. Pcroton
11:49 AM GMT on July 22, 2012
forecasts have backed off considerably regarding this next event
the window has also shrunk to a midnight to monday eve time frame
i wonder if this means we will all get whacked instead. lol
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
315. Pcroton
8:10 PM GMT on July 21, 2012
Central and Eastern Massachusettes is actually known as an area that has it's own mini "tornado alley" and is no stranger to stronger storms than it's surrounding areas. It's one of the only regions in the North East US that can experience storms that have spawned F2's to F4's even if I am not mistaken - while the rest of the region generally will experience the occasional F0-F1 and very rare F2.




Meanwhile the cooler temps have been wonderful. Thursday beach day was great. Friday's showery mid 60s was great. Today has been perfect. Haven't had the A/C on for days and don't anticipate putting it back on until late Monday morning.

Looks like another decent shot at some storms Sunday PM-Monday PM.

Not liking the return of 88-92F type temps though.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
314. caseous
1:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2012
I'm in Arlington, MA
Member Since: July 21, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
313. originalLT
4:48 AM GMT on July 21, 2012
Post #311, maybe Blizz or another person on here could answer you, but what exact city or town are you in, in Mass. That may help them.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
312. goofyrider
3:33 AM GMT on July 21, 2012
0.83 in precip today. Showers with early lightning. Ocean wss very rough. 4-5 ctf seas at 4-sec
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
311. caseous
1:49 AM GMT on July 21, 2012
Hi there. Posting for the first time because I've got a question you all may be able to help with. I hope I'm asking in the right place. I live in a town outside of Boston that just experienced its 2nd, highly damaging microburst in 2 years. While two does not a pattern make, I'm starting to wonder if there are topographical or meteorological factors that make us more included to see microbursts than our neighbors. I searched around online but the best I could find was that they are associated with thunderstorms, which wasn't very helpful. We seem to get the same amount as any area around us. Could there be other factors?

Thanks,

Caseous
Member Since: July 21, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
310. originalLT
12:13 AM GMT on July 21, 2012
Had so far today 0.82" of rain, may get alittle more. It was good because it was spread out over many hours. LT Stamford CT.- Going out to Citi Field on Sat. supposed to clear up by noon, and be 75-80F. That will be nice. Mets playing the Dodgers.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
309. bwi
8:07 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
I think we got about a half inch last night. Well received!

Today just some sprinkles so far, and per Zack's (can I call you Zack?) comment on the guidance, not much on the radar.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
308. PhillySnow
5:24 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
We finally got some rain - .26 inches so far. It's delightfully cool and really nice to have the air conditioning off for a change.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
307. Gaara
4:40 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
Blizzbot, any thoughts on Monday's FroPa?
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
306. Pcroton
3:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
that would be more in line with what we are seeing
thx for the update

locally am seeing signs of precip increase
just not on the scale of the forecast wording
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
305. Zachary Labe
2:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
Looks like the latest guidance has really backed off on the rains over the next 24 hours with activity much more scattered with lower QPF amounts. In fact even the latest NAM is not barely producing over .1in north of the Mason-Dixon line. Flash flood watches are very unnecessary.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
304. Pcroton
2:05 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
Quoting goofyrider:
0.1 in last night. Storms are headed NE to our north and south but look like not much OH. Winds were nice last night.


Looks like a pretty nice blowup near PT Pleasant this morning. Lingering at that. Flow seems to be trying to work northward. It would be nice if the convection followed.

Big forecast but thus far the radar isn't supporting it.

We shall see....



TRP, yep, weather is dynamic enough as it is....in such a variable geographic location such as mine with all these little micro-climates going on it's really difficult to predict - especially the scattered shower patterns.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
303. Zachary Labe
1:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
0.64in of rain here last night
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
302. TheRasberryPatch
11:59 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
last night 0.78" of rain. hopefully, this will bring back the grass with the past week of rain and get the ground back to a bit softer, not hard as a rock.

Pcroton - I hear what you are saying. That has to be a very difficult forecast for any meteorologist.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
301. goofyrider
11:18 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
0.1 in last night. Storms are headed NE to our north and south but look like not much OH. Winds were nice last night.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
300. Pcroton
11:03 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
Radar is full. My house is dry.

Is it time for the "you can only laugh at this point" moment?

Good Lord what does it take?

Is this Springfield? Glass dome installed over my neighborhood?

D'oh!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
299. Pcroton
10:48 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
TRP, the marine layer can really knock down storms at times. I grew up just a mile from the shore and I would watch big lightning storms roll in and die less then five miles to our west time and again. It can certainly have a big effect in the right conditions. There needs to be the proper onshore flow into the updrafts for that to occur.

A number of times depending on the state of the storms themselves they can just bulldoze that same layer out of the way and they just bring the western atmosphere with them and are unaffected. It's quite the troublesome bit to forecast. Impossible really other than gut feel - which tends to fail just as much.

Recently it has been all about the outflow boundaries for me....and being around 7 miles inland or whatever it is....I have to watch how intense the first storms sliding to the north are. If they are still building there is no outflow and the next impulse brings strong weather where I am.

More often than not, due to geography and also a bit of marine influence, storms tend to peak to the west and by the time the first ones are to my north they are collapsing and sending out a strong outflow boundary...and that kills our environment and we watch the next impulse die on our doorstep.... only to witness the atmosphere just miles south recover in time for the next impulse.

So north gets bombed, we get an outflow, and south gets bombed.

:)

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
298. Pcroton
10:44 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
Good Morning!

After several days near or above 100F I have to say this weather is just heavenly.

Yesterday I had four hours at the beach, wind, cool, cloudy... and it was wonderful.

All you need is a beach wind screen (privacy screen) and a cooler of good food and a few cousins and it's just fine.

Water had a NE swell to it and the sand bars are not where they usually are so the currents were risky and I chose not to entertain. Beyond that it was great.

This morning is perfect too. Windy cloudy cool and ominous.

We need the rain badly. Already been split by the heavier showers so far - had one okay one over night. Lets hope the luck changes and we get some good soakers today.

Enjoy it while it lasts....we're back in the heat shortly.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 7027
297. listenerVT
1:30 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
Hi Shovler! Here's what you need:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120718_rpts .html



1814 UNK CLINTON CORNERS DUTCHESS NY 4183 7376 TREES AND WIRES DOWN (ALY)


1915 UNK PAWLING DUTCHESS NY 4156 7360 TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL (ALY)


So far it doesn't look like they're saying tornado, but we sure know up here how powerful and destructive straight-line wind and downbursts can be!

Here's an article about the storm:
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/201207 05/INGHAM01/120705002/Storm-damage-Strong-winds-kn ock-down-trees-cause-power-outages
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
296. TheShovler3
1:03 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
Forgot to add its Clinton corners, NY 12514 in dutchess county
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
295. Zachary Labe
12:29 AM GMT on July 20, 2012
Just love how the CTP radar is out of service... Well at least we have the WGAL radar to know semi what is going on.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
294. TheShovler3
11:19 PM GMT on July 19, 2012
Hey Guys, i haven't been around much this year i was wondering if there was anyway i could find out if the NWS is investigating a cell that came through my area last night around 6pm. Sky Darkened and winds gusted to 60 at my parents house the reside at the top of the hill with penny sized hail (the third storm with hail for the day). The last one however blew down almost every tree 75-100 atleast or snapped them and in some cased tossed 3' maple trees like toys across the road. for about an 1/8 mile stretch. i couldn't get down close enough to take pictures and the road was still closed almost 20 hours later. Its some of the most extensive tree damage i've seen in awhile. if i had to stake a stab at it i'd say it could bee a tornado due to how and which ways the trees were snapped or a down burst of 90-100mph wind just wanted to know where i could look into this?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
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