Summer 2012...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:08 PM GMT on May 03, 2012

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Summer 2012 is about to begin according to the meteorological calendar with only less than one month to go. We are also entering that point in the spring season where temperature and precipitation patterns are beginning and generally will lag through most of the summer. It is important to note several simple, but important characteristics during the summer months to help procede with a forecast. Over this period in the year, the polar jet surges to the north locking the cold air across the immediate poles. This allows for a less-amplified and generally meager subtropical jet to linger across the southern United States occasionally throughout the summer, but generally its influences are not noticeable.


(Source: North Carolina State University Meteorology Department)

This orientation prevents most all middle-latitude cyclone development. Therefore the primary precipitation initiators are along associated weak shortwaves and cold fronts. Also warm-core tropical systems play a large role in precipitation trends across the nation later in the summer. This jet stream setup prevents most organized precipitation events occuring over a wide region and therefore regions must rely on convective QPF patterns to receive rainfall. Conditions during the summer are generally drier than the other months of the year. Also given several factors representing seasons, warmer air is funneled across much of the nation with tempereatures upwards of 100F during heatwaves across the Northeast.

Summer patterns are generally more benign than the winter months and therefore less anomalous for the most part.

If one looks at recent decadel trends, average summer means are generally on the positive side regionwide. The last below normal summer for the contiguous United States was 2009 featuring the 34th coolest mean on record. 2011 featured the second hottest summer on record for the United States, especially courtesy of the anomalous heat wave across the southwestern United States.


(Source: NOAA NCDC)

Teleconnections and ENSO regimes have less of an impact on mean conditions across the United States in summer than during the winter months. Therefore direct correlations are a tad more difficult to make especially given an ENSO regime change that will occur this year. The current La Nina (or past La Nina given conditions are no longer being met) will begin to shift towards an El Nino. The image below is the current CFS output for Nino region 3.4 indicating El Nino conditions peaking towards late summer and early fall.


(Source: NOAA CDC CFS)

A study produced by Zhuo Wang, C-P. Chang, and Bin Wang by the Naval Post Graduate School and University of Hawaii reported small correlations for ENSO regimes during northern summers. Link. The findings were generally consistent and noted weak correlations particularly during El Nino summers, while La Ninas featured a dominate and anomalous anticyclone over the central United States. Summers generally were hot nationwide during a La Nina and quite dry across the central United States.

Looking more specifically at teleconnections including the NAO, MJO, etc is not as helpful in the summer. While there is some research to indicate correlations towards temperature and precipitation trends, these studies still do not have clear results.

Another correlation many forecasts like to highlight are temperature trends from the winter and extropolated to summer. Again this correlation is backed by undefined research and statistics. But it is important to note that by late spring, patterns have often set up and become very stagnant for the following few months. Given the recent anomalous warmth (excluding the April cold spell/snowstorm) and dry conditions, it is likely that we may see a continuation of this pattern as we move foward into summer.


(Source: US Drought Monitor)

Drought conditions are already developing across portions of the Northeast despite short term relief from a few synoptic precipitation events over the past week or two. Long term departures are well below normal particularily across much of New England.

This summer forecast will generally be loosely based on the current ENSO status and recent temperature/precipitation trends across the Northeast. While a simplistic forecast in itself, summer forecasts are typically of lower confidence than other times in the year.

While La Nina continues to diminish as we enter neutral conditions presently, SST anomalies are beginning to warm into El Nino ranges according to the latest SOI numbers. Temperature means this summer have a higher likelihood of averaging above normal especially following rollover techniques from the previous 90 days. But without defined ENSO forcing and meager teleconnection influence, I would expect the heat to be more benign than the record warmth during 2010 and 2011. Extended heat waves will be less common than last summer, but a few days of touching 100F cannot be ruled out for the Northeast metropolitan corridor. The hottest conditions are also more likely to persist earlier in the season before the El Nino really begins to intensify.

Current CFS operational output supports a near normal temperature regime for the summer months, but again looking at the latest trends, above normal temperatures are of a higher possibility.


(Source: Climate Prediction Center NOAA)

Precipitation will likely be the bigger news story if the set pattern continues over the next few months. With deficits already greater than 5in+ for the year for some climatological reporting stations, these numbers will likely continue to grow. Drought conditions will worsen, although extreme drought conditions are unlikely. There are no indices and trends signaling any extreme dry weather. Convective precipitation will play a big role and cause localized areas of normal precipitation in some areas.

For hurricane frequency along the east coast, there is nearly a 50/50 probability for a strike. I know this sounds silly, but that is how probability and statistics is used in the meteorological field. There are no definite trends leaning for or against a higher probabilty of an east coast landfall. Current ENSO by early Fall signals that this hurricane season will be quieter than normal.

In general this summer has a higher likelihood to feature slightly above to above normal temperatures with a chance for below normal precipitation for most of the Northeast.

Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 0
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 9

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Warnings- 0

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0
Highest Temperature- 89F

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63. emilysoccer
9:40 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
nice sharing, so professional.

are you like sporting.

here you can get the cheap soccer jerseys in China.
Member Since: July 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
62. TheRasberryPatch
2:06 PM GMT on May 13, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Not till Tuesday. For the time being, I have been working on my python/fortran computer programming final project; been working 22 hours and 15 minutes so far, haha, with probably another 6 or so hours left. What a joke.


you'll find that some things in college are a joke. just go along with it. you never know maybe something similar will occur in real life. use it as a life experience.

looks like more rain in the forecast. at least it is occuring during the week, but I'd prefer 7 days without rain to get my yard and stuff ready for summer.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
61. Zachary Labe
12:01 AM GMT on May 13, 2012
Quoting TheF1Man:
Hello everyone how are we doing?
I'm very glad to say that I'm home now for the summer! Blizz you were coming back today or something right?

Not till Tuesday. For the time being, I have been working on my python/fortran computer programming final project; been working 22 hours and 15 minutes so far, haha, with probably another 6 or so hours left. What a joke.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. bwi
2:43 PM GMT on May 12, 2012
Day 3 QPF looking good.

Hopefully it won't all fall at once. Perfect weekend weather in DC.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
59. TheF1Man
1:41 PM GMT on May 12, 2012
Hello everyone how are we doing?
I'm very glad to say that I'm home now for the summer! Blizz you were coming back today or something right?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
58. MariettaMoon
5:06 PM GMT on May 11, 2012
I forgot to note that the 2011-2012 season at Philadelphia is tied for fourth lowest seasonal snowfall on record (1884-1885 to 2011-2012)

Here are the 10 highest seasonal snowfalls on record

#1. 78.7" (2009-2010)
#2. 65.5" (1995-1996)
#3. 55.4" (1898-1899)
#4. 54.9" (1977-1978)
#5. 49.1" (1960-1961)
#6. 46.3" (2002-2003)
#7. 44.3" (1966-1967)
#8. 44.0" (2010-2011)
#9. 43.9" (1917-1918)
#10. 43.8" (1904-1905)

Here are the 10 lowest seasonal snowfalls on record

#1. T" (1972-1973)
#2. 0.8" (1997-1998)
#3. 2.0" (1949-1950)
#4. 4.0" (2011-2012)
#4. 4.0" (2001-2002)
#6. 4.1" (1930-1931)
#7. 4.5" (1918-1919)
#8. 4.6" (1950-1951)
#9. 4.7" (1991-1992)
#10. 5.1" (1958-1959)

Here are the 10 most days with measureable snowfall

#1. 29 (1966-1967)
#2. 28 (1904-1905)
#3. 27 (1892-1893)
#4. 24 (1981-1982)
#4. 24 (1917-1918)
#6. 23 (1919-1920)
#6. 23 (1915-1916)
#6. 23 (1886-1887)
#9. 22 (1995-1996)
#9. 22 (1906-1907)
#9. 22 (1903-1904)
#9. 22 (1884-1885)

Here are the 10 least days with measureable snowfall

#1. 0 (1972-1973)
#2. 2 (2001-2002)
#3. 4 (1997-1998)
#3. 4 (1994-1995)
#5. 5 (2011-2012)
#5. 5 (2007-2008)
#5. 5 (1918-1919)
#8. 6 (1951-1952)
#8. 6 (1949-1950)
#8. 6 (1941-1942)
#8. 6 (1930-1931)
#8. 6 (1912-1913)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
57. MariettaMoon
4:44 PM GMT on May 11, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
around 6pm we got a shower that just before it passed the sun came out and we had a brilliant double rainbow.

as for the snowfall for this year. I think I had a few winters where we had less snow. Winter 96-97 comes to mind. I had just bought my snowblower the summer of 96 and I used it once that winter. Didn't we have a winter that was similar around 2007 or 2008


Yeah, it depends on where you live. I believe a few stations set lowest seasonal snow on record, and a few set lowest Dec-Jan-Feb snow, but I can't say this with 100% confidence as I haven't looked it up. I don't know where the Northeast region as a whole ranks either, I'd imagine somewhere in the bottom-5?


I downloaded great statistics program on my computer that I got from my statistics class this spring. I absolutely loved that class (I hated Calculus).

These are the seasonal snowfall descriptive statistics for Philadelphia only (1884-1885 to 2011-2012), and doesn't necessarily represent the LSV or other areas of the northeast.


For a few that may not know the definition of standard deviation:

1 standard deviation: The average deviation (difference) from the mean.

2 standard deviations: 2 times the average deviation (difference) from the mean


SEASONS: 128
MEAN: 22.36"
1 STANDARD DEVIATION: +/- 12.95"
1 STAN DEV RANGE: (9.4" to 35.3")

MAXIMUM: 78.7" (2009-2010)
QUARTILE 3: 28.9"
MEDIAN: 20.6"
QUARTILE 1: 14.7"
MINIMUM: T" (1972-1973)

2011-2012
TOTAL: 4.0"
ST DEV: -1.42

2010-2011
TOTAL: 44.0"
ST DEV: +1.67

2009-2010
TOTAL: 78.7"
ST DEV: +4.35


Historical Outliers in the data...

For a few that may not know the definition of outlier: An outlying observation, or outlier, is one that appears to deviate markedly from other members of the sample in which it occurs. A convenient definition of an outlier is a point which falls more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below the mean.


2009-2010
TOTAL: 78.7"
ST DEV: +4.35

1995-1996
TOTAL: 65.5"
ST DEV: +3.33

1898-1899
TOTAL: 55.4"
ST DEV: +2.55

1977-1978
TOTAL: 54.9"
ST DEV: +2.51


The outlier statistics above assume normal distribution (equal distribution of data values) of data (the data actually is not normally distributed, and is skewed right), and therefore uses 2.5 standard deviations from mean as the definition of an outlier. Under normal conditions, 99% of the data values would be expected to fall within 2.5 standard deviations from the mean, and anything over 2.5 standard deviations would be considered as nearly impossible.

Since seasonal snowfall at Phila data values do not belong to a normal distribution, we have to be more careful in selecting the thresholds for outliers. According to Chebyshev's theorem, we have to use an interval of +/- 4.0 standard deviations to ensure that at least 94% of the data fall inside this interval. Using Chebyshev's theorem, 2009-2010 would be the only season considered an outlier (+4.35 stan dev).

Because the mean snowfall at Philadelphia is 22.36", and 1 stan dev from mean is 12.95", a negative outlier would mean a negative seasonal snowfall total. Since you cannot have negative snowfall in a season, a negative outlier is impossible at Philadelphia.

I'm currently constructing a massive historical data analysis for Philly International that the NWS might use on their website. I won't be done till at least the end of this year.

These are just fun to look at, and I'm bored now so give me a break lol. Cheers!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
56. TheRasberryPatch
11:24 AM GMT on May 11, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
TRP, double rainbows are cool! Especially nice brilliant ones. Only have seen a very few in my lifetime.


This was one of the most brilliant rainbows I have ever seen. It appeared to be in my neighbors yard about 250 feet away and it was small. It looked like it only was 500 feet wide. The kids wanted to go find the pot of gold. I was thinking more about somewhere over the rainbow.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
55. originalLT
4:22 AM GMT on May 11, 2012
TRP, double rainbows are cool! Especially nice brilliant ones. Only have seen a very few in my lifetime.
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54. HeavySnow
2:35 AM GMT on May 11, 2012
I was one of the worst sufferers I see in the year without a winter. Felt like it too.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
53. TheRasberryPatch
12:43 AM GMT on May 11, 2012
around 6pm we got a shower that just before it passed the sun came out and we had a brilliant double rainbow.

as for the snowfall for this year. I think I had a few winters where we had less snow. Winter 96-97 comes to mind. I had just bought my snowblower the summer of 96 and I used it once that winter. Didn't we have a winter that was similar around 2007 or 2008
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
52. MariettaMoon
12:38 AM GMT on May 11, 2012
Never did a final tally…

2011-2012 Northeast Percent of Normal Snowfall (1981-2010)

Caribou ME: 95%
Bangor ME: 74%
Burlington VT: 46%
Portland ME: 71%
Concord NH: 80%
Rochester NY: 60%
Syracuse NY: 41%
Buffalo NY: 39%
Albany NY: 39%
Boston MA: 21%
Worcester MA: 62%
Binghamton NY: 52%
Erie PA: 47%
Hartford CT: 66%
Providence RI: 53%
Wilkes-Barre PA: 40%
Williamsport PA: 34%
Bridgeport CT: 48%
Islip NY: 19%
New York NY: 29%
N. Queens NY: 19%
Newark NJ: 31%
Allentown PA: 36%
S. Queens NY: 16%
Pittsburgh PA: 88%
Trenton NJ: 37%
Harrisburg PA: 41%
Philadelphia PA: 18%
Wilmington DE: 26%
Atlantic City NJ: 26%
Baltimore MD: 9%
Dulles VA: 17%
Elkins WV: 37%
Washington DC: 14%
Huntington WV: 23%
Charleston WV: 32%
Wallops Island VA: 6%
Beckley WV: 58%
Richmond VA: 44%
Lynchburg VA: 52%
Roanoke VA: 33%
Bluefield WV: 75%
Blacksburg VA: 39%
Norfolk VA: 9%
Danville VA: 64%
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
51. bwi
7:14 PM GMT on May 10, 2012
About a half inch at DCA, and a quarter at BWI. Not, much, but we'll take it. Everything's green for now.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
50. originalLT
1:09 PM GMT on May 10, 2012
Final rain total for me, 1.75". Sunny now, NW wind 2-7mph, Baro. 29.49" steady. 54F Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
49. TheRasberryPatch
12:57 PM GMT on May 10, 2012
It is very breezy here with brilliant sunshine and a bit cool in the mid 50's. I received another 0.05" of rain last night.
Campbelltown, PA
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48. Zachary Labe
12:05 PM GMT on May 10, 2012
Raw, chilly morning up here today with temperatures in the mid 40s and a sharp northwest wind under overcast skies.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
47. originalLT
4:20 AM GMT on May 10, 2012
Yeah, I see where Pcroton is being pounded by one cell that was hardly moving. My area , by midnight was up to 1.20" of rain for this event. Baro. is down to 29.54" and it is still raining and will continue to rain till atleast 6-7AM. Wind has shifted to the NW at 2-7mph. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
45. Pcroton
10:33 PM GMT on May 09, 2012
Getting pounded by this isolated cell right now. Been going on for quite some time. Everything is one big puddle or gushing water.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

* AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CONTINUE TO GENERATE OVER THE WARNED AREA.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8275
44. TheRasberryPatch
9:38 PM GMT on May 09, 2012
The clouds certainly increased. Not sure we will see much rain. I hope not. I think we got enough for a week.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
43. originalLT
1:49 PM GMT on May 09, 2012
So far 0.45" of rain for me, still raining lightly, but should end in an hour or so, then maybe some brightening, then more rain tonight. LT Stamford CT. (Temps. about 60F, Barometer kind of low at 29.71")
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
42. Zachary Labe
1:19 PM GMT on May 09, 2012
Wow, I was just reading the CTP Spring SKYWARN newsletter and there was an article about tornadoes in Pennsylvania for 2011. I did not realize that 32 tornadoes occured tying 1996 for third place in the highest count of tornadoes per year for the state.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
41. Zachary Labe
1:09 PM GMT on May 09, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
According to my Cocorahs rain gauge, I got 0.97" of rain for yesterday. That is 1.18" for the past 2 days.

The sun is out this morning. HURRAY. and it feels warm. No sweatshirt to walk outside

I am not sure it will last too long. Showers and thunderstorms with increasing clouds are likely today. Some areas could see localized heavier rain amounts that see thunderstorms.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
40. TheRasberryPatch
12:35 PM GMT on May 09, 2012
According to my Cocorahs rain gauge, I got 0.97" of rain for yesterday. That is 1.18" for the past 2 days.

The sun is out this morning. HURRAY. and it feels warm. No sweatshirt to walk outside
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
39. listenerVT
1:23 AM GMT on May 09, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Looks like a healthy .25-.5in of rain fell over most areas today. That should certainly help water tables.


As of 4:30pm we had 1.76" of precip here.
I wonder if we hit the 2.0" mark.


In about the same time period, Burlington got 1.21"

... Record daily rainfall set at Burlington VT...

Today/S rainfall of 1.20 inches at Burlington International
Airport in Burlington Vermont is the new daily record for may 8th.
The previous record was 1.05 inches which was set back in 1885.
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38. Zachary Labe
10:50 PM GMT on May 08, 2012

Looks like western Pennsylvania received the heaviest totals. I believe Pittsburgh broke their daily rainfall record today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
37. MariettaMoon
10:35 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Watch this...
Link
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36. TheRasberryPatch
9:34 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Looks like a healthy .25-.5in of rain fell over most areas today. That should certainly help water tables.


My Davis is reading 0.60" of rain. And 0.21" yesterday. The past week we are over 1.5" of rain. I could go for a week of nice weather now.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
35. Pcroton
7:59 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Nothing yet. Soon though.
Line taking its time advancing and I just keep missing the pulses.

Had nothing on Friday as the environment east of the mountains remained stable.
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34. bwi
6:53 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Some light rain now all the way down the DC. Very pleased.
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33. Zachary Labe
6:40 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Looks like a healthy .25-.5in of rain fell over most areas today. That should certainly help water tables.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
32. TheRasberryPatch
12:50 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Quoting listenerVT:


Raspberry...What kind of potatoes do you grow? I'm partial to Red potatoes, though I've never tried growing them. It certainly matters to have organic potatoes that can actually grow eyes in the right conditions...not the moldy, dead potatoes in most produce depts.


I grow Yukon Gold, Red Gold, Russian Banana Fingerling and this year they are selling German Butterball seed. I used to grow Rose Finn Apple Fingerling, but they don't get as big or as many as the Russian Banana.

I also buy some of their Organic Seeds. Scarlet Nantes Carrot and Sweet Red Bliss Beets. They both grow really well.

And this year I bought some Organic bread mixes. I haven't had the chance to try, yet.

Wood Prairie Farm is my favorite to get the Potato seeds. I have bought them for 5 years now and have always been extremely satisfied. Take a look at my past blog of my gardens and the harvest.
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31. Zachary Labe
12:08 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Looks like quite a wet day for much of the Northeast...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
30. listenerVT
4:23 AM GMT on May 08, 2012
Monday was a gorgeous day here: 73F and sunny. I got lots of weeding and pruning done. After work, my husband got the last of the lawn mowed. So now we are ready for some pouring rain. :-)

Thanks for the kind words originalLT and TheRaspberryPatch.

Raspberry...What kind of potatoes do you grow? I'm partial to Red potatoes, though I've never tried growing them. It certainly matters to have organic potatoes that can actually grow eyes in the right conditions...not the moldy, dead potatoes in most produce depts.
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29. bwi
1:08 AM GMT on May 08, 2012
Looking forward to some more rain next 48 hours. HPC has DC and points just N and W in bit of a rain hole, with only .25-.5" predicted, but NWS is talking about nearly an inch. We need these timely soakings this time of year -- hopefully we'll get what NWS is saying.
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28. TheRasberryPatch
12:38 AM GMT on May 08, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
listenerVT- Sorry for your loss! And congratulations on his graduation!

TheRasberryPatch- Did you order your potato sets as usual from that farm this year?


Blizz - yep I got my potato seeds from Wood Prairie Farm. The potatoes I grow are so good and last my into the winter.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
27. Zachary Labe
1:05 PM GMT on May 07, 2012
listenerVT- Sorry for your loss! And congratulations on his graduation!

TheRasberryPatch- Did you order your potato sets as usual from that farm this year?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
26. TheRasberryPatch
12:55 PM GMT on May 07, 2012
listenerVT - Sorry for your loss. Great to hear that Ally is up and about and loving life.

It's been a boring week. Not much to really talk about. The skies have been overcast and the temps have been temperate. The grass is very wet in the morning from the dew. And the tank is clean...The tank is clean?

I've got most of the yard and patio ready for the summer. I just need to plant my annuals in the pots. That will happen within the next week. I still haven't planted my garden. Something is always going on and the ground is a bit wet from last week.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
25. listenerVT
4:36 AM GMT on May 07, 2012
BTW, I saw Ally on Sunday! We attended a family gathering in NH and Ally was there with her parents. She had a great time on the swing. Her Mom tells us they've been going to museums and having a lot of fun!
Yayyy!
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24. listenerVT
4:31 AM GMT on May 07, 2012
Thanks for the helpful blog thread, Blizz! I'm a little less worried about our dry conditions, seeing what others have to contend with.

We have a frost warning tonight! It's supposed to touch 32F. The apple orchards are already reeling from recent cold snaps. Hoping tonight goes well.

I've been out more than in lately...two deaths in the family, an unrelated burial, and today a gathering in honour of my brother-in-law who has pancreatic cancer. On the plus side, we have reserved two 3.5 wk old kittens whom we'll adopt next month, my husband won a sailing trophy, and this coming weekend is our son's PhD graduation.
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23. originalLT
2:21 PM GMT on May 06, 2012
Well, another "murkey" day here, hopefully we'll get some afternoon sun. LT Stamford CT.
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22. Zachary Labe
1:26 PM GMT on May 06, 2012
Another beautiful day here today with crystal clear blue skies!
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21. MariettaMoon
3:15 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Had some rain in Marietta with distant rumbles of thunder and flashes of lightning from the storms near Harrisburg, and that redeveloped in eastern Lancaster County.
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20. anduril
2:01 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Dang looks like I missed some killer storms tonight. Saw it go pitch black outside of work but never had a chance to swing out and take a look. Oh well
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19. TheRasberryPatch
1:19 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Another storm died before it got to my house and then reorganized SE of my area. That is amazing. There must be something in the area that just sucks the moisture out of the storms. It seems to be near Hershey
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18. TheRasberryPatch
12:11 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
What is causing these storms the past 2 days to slide northeast out of lake erie/huron?
any change from this coming?
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17. TheRasberryPatch
12:07 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
so far since yesterday evening the storms hit a wall just past HBG and die.

Not sure this next one is going to die, though.
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16. PalmyraPunishment
12:00 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
We're getting one hell of a storm just across the river from HBG. It's pitch black, frequent lighting, thunder, rain is picking up. Very nice.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
15. Zachary Labe
11:23 PM GMT on May 04, 2012
Quoting wunderstorm87:
We just had dime to nickel-sized hail here northeast of Halifax. The storm weakened a little by the time the center of it got to us.

SPC storm report shows wind damage out of Millersburg, PA with limbs down. Also I saw a picture of hail slightly larger than a quarter.
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14. wunderstorm87
10:45 PM GMT on May 04, 2012
We just had dime to nickel-sized hail here northeast of Halifax. The storm weakened a little by the time the center of it got to us.
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13. Zachary Labe
10:07 PM GMT on May 04, 2012
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
We've had some pretty nice thunderstorms the last few evenings down here in the Valley. Thursday morning at around 2:00 AM specifically.

What do you think about severe storm potential for this afternoon/evening and into the weekend? I hear some are saying there's a potential for severe/tornadic development. What's the good word?

Looks like a nasty storm forming in northern Dauphin County right now...
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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