Saturday regional forecast and short term outlook...
"Afternoon thoughts" (Updated 4/3)
Good Thursday evening!!! Almost Friday after a long full work week. My main computer is still being fixed but I am hoping to have my winter recap blog part I blog out by either this weekend or early next week. Relatively cool day outside today with low temperatures this morning in the upper teens to lower twenties. I got down to 23degrees. It was a clear morning outside but as the day progressed clouds moved in across the entire state of Pennsylvania. High temperatures got into the 50s in the south and in the 40s elsewhere. A cool southwesterly breeze did not help to bring temperatures up to normal values. These last 2weeks have had slightly below normal temperatures, but nothing too terribly cold. The nicest day was of course Tuesday with highs 60s and 70s statewide. Looking ahead into the long term cold air may not be that done. See more information in the long term section. Taking a look currently at national radars shows a quite impressive precipitation shield all the way stretching from Colorado to back east to Virginia. Some areas are seeing snow, rain, and severe weather. Also we all need to wish the best of luck to those involved in the terrible flooding of last week and hope they do not recieve any more significant rains with this current event, though it does seem to be enevitable. Looking ahead towards future blogs... My winter recap part II will come out at the beginning of May. Also my format for weekly blogs will change dramatically from my current winter style to my summer style blog with will highlight different/special features. Also instead of a special winter storm featured blog, that will change to a severe weather outbreak feature blog. So for now though prepare for some more of these April showers. More updates are coming throughout the evening! Stay tuned! Have a great day!!!
"Short Term" (Updated 4/4)
Well this is the short term forecast for the coming work week up until next weekend. A very dreary forecast is instore for this week across much of Pennsylvania. For Saturday a wave of low pressure along the front is going to move south of the region and then out to sea scraping the northeast coastline with rain. The southeast Philadelphia region will see the most rain with amounts possibly totaling a quarter of an inch of rain. Farther west out towards Pittsburgh inversion will break up the clouds opening to partly cloudy skies later in the day. The battle ground between sun and clouds will set up in central Pennsylvania. An onshore flow from an easterly wind will draw in low clouds, fog, and drizzle off the Atlantic to about as far west as Lewistown, PA. From a Chambersburg-Lewistown-Williamsport-Mansfield line, west of that will be mostly sunny skies for late Saturday and all day Sunday. While east of that line will the regions will be socked in low clouds under dreary conditions. Cloud ceilings during the day late Saturdary will vary around 800-1000ft providing aviation levels at IFR flight levels. At night temporary LIFR flight levels will occur with ceilings at 300ft. During the day Sunday the marine layer may retreat eastward with some March sun inversion breaking up the cloud deck. But come Sunday evening the marine layer will move back west again dropping cloud levels with some light fog. Becareful traveling over ridgetops over 800ft Saturday night and Sunday night due to the dense fog with visibilities below a quarter of a mile. Highs will Sunday may approach 60degrees in most areas except the north where highs will be in the lower 50s. For Monday the marine layer still may affect eastern areas with drizzle. Farther west sunshine again will prevail with highs in the 50s statewide. By Tuesday the marine layer will retreat eastward and out to sea. Approaching in the west is another weak cold front scraping western areas with clouds. Highs Tuesday will be in the 50s statewide approaching 60degrees in the southeast. Sunshine will be out for many areas Tuesday. Wednesday some light rain may approach the western parts of Pennsylvania, but sunshine will be out in the central and eastern parts. Highs will be around 60degrees in many areas. By Wednesday night light rain will move across all regions. Rainfall amounts will be below a tenth of an inch in almost all areas. Continuing rotating disturbances moving into the region later in the week will offer more April showers for Thursday and Friday. Friday may be accompanied with some moderate rain. The slow-moving front will continue on pressing east. A low pressure may form along the front in the Ohio Valley drawing gulf moisture into the region. The weekend appears very wet at first glance with a low pressure moving north along the front. But that is far out in the difference and things can change. After the front some cooler air will move into the region.
"Pennsylvania Advisories" (Updated 4/4)
None.
"Current Radar"
"Long Term" (Updated 4/4)
Well looking ahead in the far extended outlook it appears as if chilly weather will be moving back into the region. Latest GFS long term outlooks all show at least some cooler air pooling in back east into the Northeast. Now do not expect anything severly cold, but temperatures 10degrees below normal may occur along with many nights with lows below freezing. So frosts and freezes are definitely not over for a long time until early to mid May in most areas. In the urban areas frost season will end a little earlier due to the urban heat island effect. But in the shorter long term it appears temperatures will be seasonal with days with temperatures approaching 70degrees again ahead of fronts. It seems the main storm track for early in April is for many Great Lakes Cutters putting us in the warm sector portion of the storm. So enjoy Spring and see my April Outlook below for more details on what you can expect in the month of April.
"Current NAO"
*Note the negative trend.
"Current PNA"
*Note the negative trend.
"Just to throw out there" (Updated 3/22)
***April Outlook***
Well Spring is officially here though it may not feel like it outdoors with the cold northwest brisk wind and snow falling from an Alberta Clipper. But spring is here and winter is just producing some last gasps. For eastern areas after April 10 usually no more snow falls. In central areas the date is usually around April 15, and in western areas it is usually around the 20th of April. In the northwest mountains and Laural Highlands snow can be recorded throughout all of April. But as the old saying goes "April showers bring may flowers" so hopefully this April will not be as dry as past Aprils. Here is my Outlook for April...
Precipitation- Overal the long term pattern favors a very active midwest storm track putting Pennsylvania on the warmer and more cellular in precipitation side of the storm. I believe April precipitation will be above normal statewide with many days with showers and thunderstorms. Also after these coldfronts move through it will get colder with lake effect snow showers in the mountains. As far as snow, it will be the same areas that have seen snow all winter will get more snow. I do not expect hardly any snow in the south and east. But I believe snowbelts will recieve possibly above normal snowfall. For rainfall it appears to be above normal in all areas with some areas in the southeast possibly recieving several inches more of rain than average. Severe weather may also be a factor in the later half of the month.
Temperature- For temperatures they will probably average near normal to slightly below normal. The long term shows slight greenland blocking with a neutral NAO favoring cool conditions over the state. But during times when storms head west of region warmer air will move into Pennsylvania. But I believe by the end of April temperatures will be above normal with the southeast ridge affecting our region. This year may be a year with a jump from winter to summer with only a little spring.
"Regional Forecasts" (Updated 4/4) (Saturday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Rain showers becoming more intermitent later in the day. .1inch of rain possible. Cloudy with low ceilings at 300-400ft. Patchy fog with visibilities at 4mile. High 61degrees.
2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Scattered rain showers then drizzle. Less than .1inch of rain possible. Cloudy with low ceilings at 200-300ft. Areas of fog with visibilities at 2mile. High 59degrees.
3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Periods of light rain throughout the day. .25inches of rain possible. Cloudy. Patchy fog with visibilities at 5mile. Warm. High 65degrees.
4. Central- (State College)-
Morning very light rain then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy at times. High 57degrees.
5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Morning drizzle with dense mountain fog with visibilities at .1mile at elevatations at over 1450ft. Patchy fog in valleys with visibilities at 1mile. High 50degrees.
6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Cloudy with partly cloudy skies later in the day. Breezy at times. Warm. High 57degrees.
7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Cloudy with drizzle and periods of very light rain. Dense fog on ridges with visibilities at .15mile at elevations above 1200ft. High 56degrees.
***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
"Weekly Weather Reviews" (Updated 3/21)
Good Friday afternoon!!! Well for this coming weeks weather reviews I decided to review a new weather book, Extreme Weather and on the Davis Vantage Pro2 weather station.
This section will be dedicated to weather stations, weather technology, weather books, weather websites, weather magazines, etc. reviews that I write. I am going to try to write a review once a week on Sunday about some of the above topics. Also I am going to rate each item out of 5 stars. (*****)
Also if anyone else has a topic idea or something to add about my review you can leave it in a comment. Hopefully this will give you some knowledge about all of the fascinating weather accessories that are out there. And maybe you can try some out yourself!
Book - Extreme Weather by H. Michael Mogil(*****)-
Extreme Weather by H. Michael Mogil is a relatively new weather book written in 2007. The price of the book is $24.94. I am starting to run out of room on my book shelves for all of the weather books I have. But when I saw this book I knew I had to buy it. It is 304pages long with chapters, Introduction, Record Keeping, Is the Weather Really Getting Worse?, Winter Storms, Hurricanes and other Tropical Cyclones, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Lightning, Hail, Floods, Deserts and Dust Storms, Droughts, Forest and Wild Fires, Heatwaves, Coldwaves, HighWinds, Air Quality, Volcanoes, Climate Change Past-Present-and Future, and Glossary/Reference. H. Michael Mogil is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist. One of the main reasons I look this book is that the author has a similar viewpoint to global warming like I do. And he does not focus very much on climate change, but sticks to the current weather. The book is full of graphs, charts, pictures, etc on every feasible type of weather ever recorded. There are wonderful chapters on winter storms and severe weather. Also there are many storm recaps of recent history in the 21st century. I would recommend this book to any avid weather watcher and/or meteoroligist.
The goods (+)
Wonderful sections on severe weather and winter storms
Little focurs on global warming
Printed last year with up-to-date current information
304pages of wonderful graphs, charts, and pictures
The bads (-)
Could focus more on historic storms
Technology - Davis Vantage Pro 2 Weather Station(*****)-
When I look for weather stations I want accuracy and all of the necessary extras. After not being completed satisified with my Weather Channel (Lacrosse) Professional Weather Station I decided to step up my level of weather stations. I was doing alot of research on the Davis Vantage Pro2's, Rainwise MK-III, and the Oregon Scientific WMR200. After alot of reading up on each station I decided to get the Davis Vantage Pro2. That weather station seemed to have the highest accuracy ratings and was the best for its value. The cost of the weather station was $595.00 for the 6152 station that is wireless. Also I decided to get the large mounting tripod of 70inches high. After choosing a location to put the weather station, the installation began. There were several problems that occured during the 3hr installation. First off is some of the wires were difficult positioning the main solar panel sensor. Then there were problems with installing the rain gauge pieces. There are two large manuals to install the weather station. After finally setting up the entire weather station it was time to program to reciever which is indoors. That went relatively easy. That evening was a cool fall evening with a light breeze. And I noticed that not one wind gust or change of wind direction was being reported. After looking through the manual of troubleshooting errors, I performed a diagnostic test (recommended) and found that there was not reading from the cup anemometer. So after calling Davis they sent a completely new anemometer in only a few days. It turned out I accidently cut the wire without noticing when installing the weather station. Davis was very helpful and efficient. That has been the only problem I have encountered with the weather station in the 2 years I have had it. The console outside runs on solar panels and does not even require batteries. The indoor reciever runs on an AC adapter or C batteries. I have found the most wonderful accuracy with this weather station. But still I wanted to improve it even more. Last year I decided to purchase the extra daytime fan-aspiration radition shield. What this does is eliminate the impacts of the sun's rays to the temperature outdoors. The cost of this extra was $125.00. After this I found my temperature readings to be +-.5degrees accuracy. As far as my rain gauge it is right on with storm rain totals, daily rain totals, 1hr rain totals, 15min rain totals, and rainfall rates. There are indoor temperature and outdoor temperature readings with the new wind chill chart temperature reading, and heat index readings. Also indoor/outdoor humidity/dewpoint readings with pressure readings. Also a small 24hr graph is on the reciever screen with a high LED backlight. The weather station also has 10min sustained winds and wind gusts readings every few seconds. Overall readings are updated every few seconds. The weather station is fantastic and I do not believe there is a better one out there open for purchase to the public. Every couple of months Davis sends a catalog with the latest extras to add to their weather stations.
The goods (+)
Best accuracy of readings, wind, temperature, humidity, etc
Fast outdoor readings every few seconds
Davis is a very well-known and efficient company
Long life span of weather station
Additional extras can be purchased to improve weather station
Availibility to computer access
The bads (-)
Difficult installation
My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 26.5inches
Monthly Total... None
Daily Total... None
Snow Cover... None
My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches........1nch of snow
Feb. 12-13.....1-4inches........5.5inches of snow
Feb. 20........1-3inches........1inch of snow
Feb. 22-23.....3-7inches........4inches of snow
Feb. 26-27.....C-1inch......... .25inches of snow
Feb. 29........2-4inches........2.5inches
March 15-16....C-2inches........Trace of snow
March 18.......C-1inch..........Trace of snow
March 21-22....1-3inches........1inch of snow
Reader Comments
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The ground was whitened this morning. We need spring badly. Raw rainy day here.
Temp. is 35, we have had .40" of rain as well.
0.37" of rain since yesterday.
Seasonal total is now up to 91.5"
I can't remember last years' total off the top of my head, but I was about 10" short of average.
No, not really.
But I haven't been looking for that...lol
Actually, I haven't been looking too closely at the models recently. I've been at work landscaping with the better weather. Since it's spring clean-up time that's been taking up a good portion of my days (10hours+)
I think the big reason for the blown QPF forecasts has been last minute changes in tracks of the low pressures. For instance, This current one is heading south of where it was supossed to track just 2 days ago in the models.
I always say spring is the hardest time period to forecast for. Things always change in spring. Chaos reigns...
Rainfall up to .73" temp. is 46 degrees. What a crappy day.
Rasb, I did play golf yesterday. I got in 11 holes. I had 10 pars and 1 double. My irons were scarey good, the putting was a joke though! Suppose to have a tournament sat. morning. It will be postponed, there is no way they will let carts out.
0.49" of rain for the whole storm so far.
blizz - i can't believe you watch local weather. if i watch anything i watch the weather channel at 1030pm in the evening just to check to see whats going on. i watch maybe 10 mins and then back to greta.
She has a good show but I can't stand how it looks like she's always talking out of the side of her mouth. Kind of creepy...
blizz, you know one thing they say around the mid-atlantic and northeast is that we don't get a spring - just winter to summer. Before you know it we will be having temps in the 80's.
Just give me some warm temps with sunny conditions for next saturday, OK. thanks. I like the aviation conditions.
That marine layer can last sometimes for a couple of days. Never brings much precip, but in May and June can make for raw conditions. And at the beach it can make for some really thick pea soup. I know some guys that got caught in one in the back bays of OC, maryland and couldn't not find their way back to their dock. After a few hours they pulled over at someone elses dock and called for someone to pick them up. It is amazing how fog that thick can just have you going in circles. The water there isn't deep, but they were still scared and cold.
TheRasberryPatch- Yes I agree about the winter to summer theory. Spring seems so shortened in this region of the country. Marine layers also can be sometimes difficult to forecast when it comes to how far inland it goes.
Coming later today: Preview of spring format to weekly weather blog. Currently there is a winter format. Also preview of severe weather outbreak format to storm blog. Currently there was a winter storm format.
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