New England Coastal Snow Event...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:52 PM GMT on February 09, 2012

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total- (January)- 5.2in
Monthly Total- (February)- 5.3in
Seasonal Total- 16.4in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - January 18 - 0.2in of snow
Southwest Flow Event - January 21 - 5.0in of dry snow
Weak Shortwave - February 8 - 2.3in of wet snow
Weak Coastal Storm - February 10 - 1.0in of wet snow
Mid Level Shortwave - February 11 - 2.0in of dry/blowing snow

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405. Zachary Labe
1:01 AM GMT on February 19, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
18Z GFS is out of its gourd in its extended range forecast lows for Saturday morning, 03/03. Forecast on left, daily record in parenthesis.

I thought this was funny

Albany: -21F (-10F)
Hartford CT: -10F (4F)
Binghamton: -18F (-3F)
Williamsport: -14F (1F)
Mount Pocono: -15F (-2F)
New York: -3F (11F)
Newark: -2F (9F)
Allentown: -13F (8F)
Reading: -13F (9F)
Harrisburg: -12F (9F)
Trenton: 3F (5F)
Philadelphia: 4F (10F)
Baltimore: 3F (10F)
Washington: 6F (11F)

Hahaha... that would be so comical to get a brief historic arctic outbreak after the way this winter has gone.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
404. Hoynieva
12:37 AM GMT on February 19, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
18Z GFS is out of its gourd in its extended range forecast lows for Saturday morning, 03/03. Forecast on left, daily record in parenthesis.

I thought this was funny

Albany: -21F (-10F)
Hartford CT: -10F (4F)
Binghamton: -18F (-3F)
Williamsport: -14F (1F)
Mount Pocono: -15F (-2F)
New York: -3F (11F)
Newark: -2F (9F)
Allentown: -13F (8F)
Reading: -13F (9F)
Harrisburg: -12F (9F)
Trenton: 3F (5F)
Philadelphia: 4F (10F)
Baltimore: 3F (10F)
Washington: 6F (11F)


Perhaps it talked to the euro and it told them they use celsius over there...
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
403. MariettaMoon
12:03 AM GMT on February 19, 2012
18Z GFS is out of its gourd in its extended range forecast lows for Saturday morning, 03/03. Forecast on left, daily record in parenthesis.

I thought this was funny

Albany: -21F (-10F)
Hartford CT: -10F (4F)
Binghamton: -18F (-3F)
Williamsport: -14F (1F)
Mount Pocono: -15F (-2F)
New York: -3F (11F)
Newark: -2F (9F)
Allentown: -13F (8F)
Reading: -13F (9F)
Harrisburg: -12F (9F)
Trenton: 3F (5F)
Philadelphia: 4F (10F)
Baltimore: 3F (10F)
Washington: 6F (11F)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
402. Pcroton
4:40 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting vdb0422:


How do you know if it is freezing near the surface on model runs?


Here's an easy model navigation site - especially when you want to look at individual atmospheric layers.

College of DuPage meteorology model pages



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
401. bwi
4:14 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
And our little coating has melted, hahaha, worst winter ever.


And 12utc GFS came in bad for DC. Oh well, off to ride my bike.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
400. Zachary Labe
4:04 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
And our little coating has melted, hahaha, worst winter ever.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
399. Hoynieva
3:14 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I don't mind a mild March either. It gives me a chance to get the gardens ready for an early planting in April. It's just the rain that is a problem. The ground is always too wet. I read in a gardening book...it doesn't matter if you plant early...it is actually good. You can get an early crop. If you lose a plant or two you can always replant because you are still early.


Yes, I agree with the gardening book as I've done the same myself for many years. Assuming winter doesn't last until April, that is, which shouldn't be a problem this year. Perhaps if your ground is too wet you might want to try some early crops in containers, which you can then transplant when the time is right. I say this as, living in NYC, I only use containers and each year it seems I am able to grow more and more produce in less space. It's a challenge, but a good one, as I know when I move out of this concrete jungle and get some land again, the plants will flourish.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
398. Zachary Labe
3:04 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


The radar did look impressive. Do you use the radar out of State College? Hopefully, with the upgrade coming we will get better returns.

My national weather service up here is Binghamton, so I use their radar out of KBGM. Given the close proximity of the radar beam to here, usually there is less virga than normal.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
397. TheRasberryPatch
2:52 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Well squall did end up finally getting started here, but essentially it was just a period of .5mi visibility moderate snow. We picked up probably .1-.25in. Radar definitely was a lot more impressive than ground observations.


The radar did look impressive. Do you use the radar out of State College? Hopefully, with the upgrade coming we will get better returns.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
396. rajrocs
2:51 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


a cold frame is an A frame about 4 feet tall covered in plastic and a low tunnel like a half moon covered in plastic?


My cold frames are 4'x4' 15 inches(3/4 plywood) high along the back and 9 inches high along the front. A square(1"x2"s) framed hinged lid covered with 6mil greenhouse plastic. Materials run $70-$80.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
395. Zachary Labe
2:34 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Well squall did end up finally getting started here, but essentially it was just a period of .5mi visibility moderate snow. We picked up probably .1-.25in. Radar definitely was a lot more impressive than ground observations.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
394. bwi
2:29 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Latest NAM just coming in. Looks like they've upped the precip again compared with last night's dismal 0z run. I'd bet this causes NWS to issue a winter weather advisory for an inch or two of snow in DC.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
393. Zachary Labe
2:24 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
I still like my snow map quite a bit!


Light= 1-4in
Moderate= 3-7in
Heavy= 6in+
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
392. MariettaMoon
2:17 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
How pathetic... even this very impressive squall on radar is a joke so far. We are under some of the higher returns here in Ithaca and nothing is even reaching the ground.


lol, wow, what a dissapointing winter, lol!

I think I'm with NEwxguy now. I think I'm about to just accept the losses of winter 2011-2012 (let's face it, I deserve a bad winter after the last 2 NJ blockbusters, so it's ok) and really start getting my mind geared for Spring. Think about how I'm gonna go about the garden and start looking forward to Spring temps. Time to get my mind off winter...
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
391. TheRasberryPatch
2:15 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting rajrocs:
Sorry, didn't mention that that was all done in cold frames and low tunnels.


a cold frame is an A frame about 4 feet tall covered in plastic and a low tunnel like a half moon covered in plastic?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
390. Zachary Labe
2:07 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
How pathetic... even this very impressive squall on radar is a joke so far. We are under some of the higher returns here in Ithaca and nothing is even reaching the ground.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
389. Zachary Labe
2:02 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
Either Blizz has one dead ringer of a doppleganger running amock in Harrisburg or I passed him in Sheetz earlier this evening. Ho-leee cow I almost did a quintuple take and gave myself whiplash lol

looks like this event is over before it even started. i just hope this wasn't the best and final chance we've got.

Hahaha, no that wasn't me. My spring break is around mid to late March.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
388. rajrocs
1:49 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Sorry, didn't mention that that was all done in cold frames and low tunnels.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
387. rajrocs
1:44 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
I'm here in 7a just outside Philly. I started peas, kale and carrots yesterday. I've had lettuce and spinach all winter and back in January I harvested the last of my carrots and then 2 weeks later 1/20 planted new carrots which have just now germinated. Also planted radishes at that time which now need thinning. Warm, warm winter.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
386. h2oskt
1:39 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
I am thinking about starting my coldframe plants early this year. Anyone else thinking like I am and getting a jump on some early spring gardens?
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 53
385. MariettaMoon
1:28 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting listenerVT:


Actually, my husband's great aunt, who lived to be 99.5 years old, told us that they used to plow the roads with horses pulling the plow.


That is correct
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
384. MariettaMoon
1:27 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Temp in the low 50's tomorrow and partly sunny. Hmmmm...should be a great Saturday to get out and enjoy the day.

MM - that is surprising that Poughkeepsie had a record maximum of only 54F. I lived across the river from there in Chester and it didn't seem that much different from LSV. It got more snow there for sure, but the temps weren't that much different from here.


Records there only date back to 1948.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
383. MariettaMoon
1:21 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Blizz, that is a sweet looking line of snow about to hit you. It looks like a Spring line of thunderstorms. That is unless you are in the LSV as per the possible Blizz sighting by Palmyra.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
382. Pcroton
1:19 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting bwi:
0z NAM is a whiff. DC right at the north edge of the precip. Too bad, last night a this time NAM was most optimistic!


It has been awful this year. Far too aggressive. One run had 20" plus wide swath KY into VA. Pathetic. Of course it comes into line at the onset but it has proven to be worse than unreliable this season.

Watch it score a late season hit when other models are out to lunch though. lol
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
381. TheRasberryPatch
1:15 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
listener - ah, yes horses to plow...makes sense. I bet 4 draft horse/belgians could plow a good swath I bet.

did you guys/gals see the video of the sun up close showing solar tornadoes? pretty awesome video to see the flares and the like dancing around
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
380. Pcroton
1:07 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
ncep tracks
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
379. Pcroton
1:06 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
SREF ensembles have proven over the past three years to be very reliable for coastal winter cyclogenesis. Today they are clustered right around the NC/SC border perhaps a little ene of there and heading ene. out to sea. I have little reason to disagree.

Also as pointed out the NAM has been awful and should be discounted. Imo of course.

Good luck to VA but I still think it is going to to verify warmer east of the mountains than forecasted. The cold air is not going to get there in time and when it does it will be a dry surge that will shut off the precip not change it over for a significant period of time.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058
378. listenerVT
4:21 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
02/16 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Montpelier VT: 31F (t)



Thanks! Yah, it was warm overnight. Then this morning the Chickadees were offering their Spring song. Awhile later I noticed that the Tufted Titmice were singing their Spring notes too.

It's still mid-February...pinch, pinch.

What nobody up here wants is another storm at the end of April that drops 2 ft of snow, as happened a couple years ago. Once the trees leaf out, heavy snow breaks too many of them.

I want my snow NOW!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
377. listenerVT
4:16 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - what is that crossing New York state? Are you getting any of the precipitation?


A friend near Albany said it was 45F and snowing, there.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
376. listenerVT
4:14 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
MM - I understand. I just thought that the authorities in the city would be watching the barometer. And then I forgot, they didn't have any other means of getting information out except from newspaper. No radio back then. And just think...they didn't have really any means of removing snow except by hand with a shovel.


Actually, my husband's great aunt, who lived to be 99.5 years old, told us that they used to plow the roads with horses pulling the plow.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
375. TheRasberryPatch
3:01 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
DOH!


I don't mind April & May being warm though


I don't mind a mild March either. It gives me a chance to get the gardens ready for an early planting in April. It's just the rain that is a problem. The ground is always too wet. I read in a gardening book...it doesn't matter if you plant early...it is actually good. You can get an early crop. If you lose a plant or two you can always replant because you are still early.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
374. TheRasberryPatch
2:58 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Temp in the low 50's tomorrow and partly sunny. Hmmmm...should be a great Saturday to get out and enjoy the day.

MM - that is surprising that Poughkeepsie had a record maximum of only 54F. I lived across the river from there in Chester and it didn't seem that much different from LSV. It got more snow there for sure, but the temps weren't that much different from here.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
373. bwi
2:47 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
0z NAM is a whiff. DC right at the north edge of the precip. Too bad, last night a this time NAM was most optimistic!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
372. PalmyraPunishment
2:23 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Either Blizz has one dead ringer of a doppleganger running amock in Harrisburg or I passed him in Sheetz earlier this evening. Ho-leee cow I almost did a quintuple take and gave myself whiplash lol

looks like this event is over before it even started. i just hope this wasn't the best and final chance we've got.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
371. tinkahbell
2:15 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Sooooo.....do I go buy toilet paper, bread and milk or not?? LOL - As you all I am in the middle of the teeny state of Delaware and they have not said a word about anything but rain...
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
370. MariettaMoon
2:12 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
DOH!


I don't mind April & May being warm though
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
369. MariettaMoon
1:59 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
02/16 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Montpelier VT: 31F (t)


I missed a few from earlier in February

02/10 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Caribou ME: 40F (t)
Houlton ME: 43F*

02/07 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
Poughkeepsie NY: 54F*

02/02 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
Poughkeepsie NY: 61F*

02/02 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM (addition)
Poughkeepsie NY: 34F (t)

02/01 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM (addition)
Trenton NJ: 67F*

02/01 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS (additions)
S. Queens (LGA) NY: 50F (t)
Trenton NJ: 46F*
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
368. PengSnow
1:57 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Here is my thoughts on the chances of these areas to see at least 1 snowflake...

Williamsport: 1%
Mount Pocono: 1%
New York: 1%
Newark: 1%
Allentown: 20%
Harrisburg: 40%
Trenton: 40%
Philadelphia: 40%
Mason-Dixon Line: 40%
Baltimore: 60%
Washington: 80%
Richmond: 99%


Good Predictions---I am still baffled though, if this storm deepens slightly---which is very possible this could spread the snow shield further north and northwest---does anybody else see the logical possibilities?
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
367. MariettaMoon
1:11 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting vdb0422:
I heard if the Low pressure system in the plain states merges with the main Low pressure in Texas it can make a turn up the coast. Is this true? And if so, what is the probability?


I'm pretty confident that won't happen
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
366. MariettaMoon
1:05 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Here is my thoughts on the chances of these areas to see at least 1 snowflake...

Williamsport: 1%
Mount Pocono: 1%
New York: 1%
Newark: 1%
Allentown: 20%
Harrisburg: 40%
Trenton: 40%
Philadelphia: 40%
Mason-Dixon Line: 40%
Baltimore: 60%
Washington: 80%
Richmond: 99%
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
365. vdb0422
11:05 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
I heard if the Low pressure system in the plain states merges with the main Low pressure in Texas it can make a turn up the coast. Is this true? And if so, what is the probability?
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
364. TheRasberryPatch
10:54 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Blizz - what is that crossing New York state? Are you getting any of the precipitation?

Beach - that is a great school. It's amazing how much it has changed since the 80's. Back when I went it was considered a commuter school. They had dorms, but I would guess half of the student population were commuters. And so easy to go from class to class. Class size was mostly 25 or less unless you had a lecture hall, which I only had one class that was that size. It was no problem to get to your next class in less than 10 minutes
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
363. vdb0422
10:50 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Well if you are not in VA say goodbye storm. Dang why is everybody off the blog now lol
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
362. tropicfreak
10:44 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Quoting bwi:
NWS in DC is talking about all snow now, which is good, but also a sharp cutoff of precip from south to north, which it not. Eyeballing the precip amounts, NAM latest looks to me like maybe .5+ for DC; GFS less -- maybe a little over a quarter of an inch. HPC even less than that, probably hedging toward the European model, which had zero for us. Still unless the Euro is right, looking at at least several inches of snow. Hopefully the storm will verify stronger, and bring more precip further north while holding on to the cold air.


Euro had initialization issues, therefore it's an error and should be ignored. Euro is a bit shaky at this point too and I am not paying as much attention to it.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
361. tropicfreak
10:42 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Quoting vdb0422:
My early prediction is the storm will take a more southernly track tomorrow. Once the storm starts to form the models will keep the storm too far south. It may come off the south carolina north carolina border with little northerly motion. They will equal zero snow for dc. Just my prediction.


I think the models are pretty much locked in on their tracks, though all models but the NAM are on a slight southward trend, don't think it will exit that far south. Plus many want to slow the storm down a bit which could mean more snow for me.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
360. tropicfreak
10:41 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
It's looking really good down here in Richmond, the models keep raising the totals higher and higher. If you are north of Baltimore it won't be your storm... sorry. I'm expecting 4-6" here in Richmond.

For all Virginians, check out my blog.

Significant Winter Storm expected for Sunday... Snow???
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
359. vdb0422
10:34 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
My early prediction is the storm will take a more southernly track tomorrow. Once the storm starts to form the models will keep the storm too far south. It may come off the south carolina north carolina border with little northerly motion. They will equal zero snow for dc. Just my prediction.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
358. HeavySnow
10:30 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Fingers crossed.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
357. bwi
10:15 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
NWS in DC is talking about all snow now, which is good, but also a sharp cutoff of precip from south to north, which it not. Eyeballing the precip amounts, NAM latest looks to me like maybe .5+ for DC; GFS less -- maybe a little over a quarter of an inch. HPC even less than that, probably hedging toward the European model, which had zero for us. Still unless the Euro is right, looking at at least several inches of snow. Hopefully the storm will verify stronger, and bring more precip further north while holding on to the cold air.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
356. HeavySnow
9:46 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Don't give up yet DC.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
355. Pcroton
9:02 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Hit 52 here today. Then at 130 had a big gust of wind and temp dropped to 46 in a few minutes and here we sit at the same.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7058

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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