Last major snowstorm of season???

By: Zachary Labe , 8:59 PM GMT on March 19, 2008

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Thoughts on March 23-25 storm...
Well after a lot of thought I decided to open a storm format blog for the possible Easter snowstorm. While some models are against the idea of the storm, I feel strong that a late season snowstorm may be in the works. I know it is very early and I am not one to hype a storm, but as jthal57 mentioned this may be the last major winter storm of the season and the last storm to hype. So I decided to start this new blog. As for my tornado blog, I will reopen it after the potential storm and add more to the blog. I hope everyone adds there comments and forecasts for this storm too in the comments below. Look for an extensive section for my thoughts on storm and the other sections will come out this evening. Check back soon!

Good Thursday evening!!! Expect my major updates to be coming Friday morning after the 0z and 6z model runs.

Well good Wednesday evening!!! A potential major late spring snowstorm could be headed towards the northeast. This is yet again another difficult forecast. Some models show storm heading straight out to sea while others have been waffling with major coastal storm and well off the coast. Taking a look at current depictions of the storm I am going to go out on a limb and stick with my coastal storm idea. The teleconnections finally favor a storm with the NAO slighty negative, the PNA neutral, and the AO negative. Also Greenland blocking is indicated with high pressures to north of storm, but the question is how strong will the blocking be and how strong will the highs be. Also the disturbance moving into the western part of the United States will play a major part in the track of the coastal low. Also the clipper coming out of Canada is going to play a part in the storm track too. Interestingly enough the clipper is being forecast to be weaker and weaker with each model run. This is good news as the clipper will not steal the energy from the second storm. For once this year also the jet stream favors a close to benchmark storm. The reason the latest models are showing this storm off the coast is that they believe there will be too strong of blocking and this will surpress the storm. I just do not see this being the case. A -1 NAO is not really that strong and just about perfect for coastal storms. Also with a neutral PNA western ridging will occur and help to amplify the trough. Also behind the coastal storm is a clipper system entering the United States and it seems to push the storm off the coast. Also with the GFS it shows some very strong high pressures in Maine which really help to block the storm. But I believe these highs are being overestimated as that as been the pattern all winter. The storm appears to be a miller A storm and I believe it will track up the coast. Now climatogically snow is not favored in coastal areas for the end of March, and I agree because I think surface temperatures will be too warm for snow on the coastline. Even I-95 I cannot see an all snow event. Inland areas should be the winners. Though I do not see precipitation getting any farther west than westcentral Pennsylvania. The snow will be of the wet variety in areas that it occurs. Now with all that said, remember this forecast has relatively low confidence but I think it is the best scenerio at this point of time. Two scenerios are going to occur with this storm, either coastal storm or out to sea. Continue to check back here for more updates as this has the potential to be a major weather maker for early next week. I do not usually hype a storm so far out, but I feel confident about this storm. Even for some reason the storms does not work out and heads out to sea, I will gladly admit I am wrong. Everything continues to be a learning experience. Have a great evening!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/mix line...
Forecast too far off for specific precipitation lines.

This is my current mix/snow line...
Forecast too far off for specific precipitation lines.

Storm Reports...
Pennsylvania...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Heavy precipitation in areas of impact
2. High winds likely as storm pulls away
3. Colder than normal temperatures during time period
4. Areas that see snow, it will be of the wet variety
5. Potential for memorable spring snowstorm

Snow Outlook Map...
TOO HIGH OF UNCERTAINTY
"Subject to Change"

Selected City Precipitation Outlooks for the Northeast...
TOO HIGH OF UNCERTAINTY
Hagerstown, MD-
Baltimore, MD-
Washington, DC-
Wilmington, DE-
Cape May, NJ-
Trenton, NJ-
New York City, NY-
Poughkeepsie, NY-
Binghamton, NY-
Albany, NY-
Hartford, CT-
Concord, NH-
Providence, RI-
Worcester, MA-
Boston, MA-
Nantucket, MA-
Portland, ME-
Bangor, ME-
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
COMING FRIDAY MORNING!!!

After the storm...
Well after the storm for the rest of next week it appears as conditions will be much calmer with little if any storms. Temperatures will be climbing back up into the 50s and a few spots with 60s. Sunshine will prevail and maybe finally people can get outside and do some yard work or just enjoy spring. But if we have any snowpack this will keep on a slight hold on temperatures and may prevent anybody from enjoying the outdoors. But all spring snowstorm's snowpacks always melt very quickly to warm temperatures and the strong sun rays of Spring.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 25.5inches
Monthly Total... Trace
Daily Total... Trace
Snow Cover... None.

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches........1nch of snow
Feb. 12-13.....1-4inches........5.5inches of snow
Feb. 20........1-3inches........1inch of snow
Feb. 22-23.....3-7inches........4inches of snow
Feb. 26-27.....C-1inch......... .25inches of snow
Feb. 29........2-4inches........2.5inches
March 15-16....C-2inches........Trace of snow
March 18.......C-1inch..........Trace of snow

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72. Zachary Labe
6:35 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
dean2007- Good afternoon! I am going to post a snow map also this afternoon! As far as yours it is pretty good though your moderate snow accumulation band I believe stretches just a little far to east and too far south. Overall pretty good!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
71. dean2007
3:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2008

Clipper Snow Map
70. Zachary Labe
2:56 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
Good morning all!!! Our coastal storm is headed out to sea. The polar vortex's intensity will be to the magnitude that the GFS showed. I guess hyping does really get you no where, but it was probably the last winter storm chance for our area so I thought I would give it a shot. I did though learn alot more about the models are the amount of factors to have a perfect east coast storm. New blog coming out today!!!
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69. Spetrm
1:04 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
Wow, 5-9 inches. Well I guess my forecast will be a bust probaly. LOL I'v been in the south to long.
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68. TheRasberryPatch
1:03 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
can you believe chicago is supposed to get 5-9 inches. looks like winter is trying to hang on in some locations. it certainly won't give up the cold temps around here.
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67. Spetrm
12:46 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
Morning blizzard,

to be honest I don't think this next snow storm will be that major. If considered a storm at all. Not enough moisture coming in to since most of the area will be effected by dry air today and tomorrow.

Plus the PFJ is making its way farther and farther north so the track will be farther up there as well with less supply of instablity from the gulf I think not much will happen with this system.

Thats my thoughts though, I think there will be some snow this weekend but not much more than a few inches tops!
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66. cchamp6
12:39 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
Good morning Blizz,

Ok, I will be awaiting some new thoughts on the storm today. Sully says we need a miracle for it to come up the coast.

It is so disappointing to have cold and wind with no snow. I would love to get some warmth if we cant get snow.
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65. jthal57
12:30 PM GMT on March 21, 2008
Blizzard- I guess our last-gasp hope of any significant snow for this season is officially gone. It will be a long 9 months until winter! You may see more from this clipper than I will, so you'll enjoy winter just a bit longer, I suppose!
64. Patrap
1:01 AM GMT on March 21, 2008
LSU ESL site Link
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63. Zachary Labe
12:41 AM GMT on March 21, 2008
Well 18z DGEX has shifted much farther northwest with precipitation just about scaping the northeast coastline. This morning 6z DGEX was way out to sea.
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62. Zachary Labe
12:29 AM GMT on March 21, 2008
And one other thing...

The computer models still believe it is winter time and they may be overestimating the intensity of the polar vortex. Meteorologists believe that models this time of year models overestimate cold temperatures by a good 5-7degrees at times. Until they accept the season as spring they are adapted to understanding the typical winter time flow. Remember it is the end of March and strong polar vortexs are relatively rare this time of year.
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61. Zachary Labe
12:23 AM GMT on March 21, 2008
cchamp6- Thanks. I am not writing off this storm so fast. Now I know most NWS and locals have removed mentions of precipitation from their forecasts. And that is because no models show the storm right along the coast. But the European models are not really that far off the coast and a slight jog westward will make a big difference. Also there is a piece of energy entering northwestern Canada late tonight and this will play a major part in the storm. And the models have been getting some mixed forecast predictions about the strength and track of the energy. So tonight models will get a feel for the disturbance. Also models have been quick to overestimate polar vortexes this year which if this one is overestimated then we have a storm. Also an example I want to bring up in the January 1996 storm was not forecasted as a coastal storm by the GFS until 48hrs out and only the European models showed the storm several days out, but even they were waffling. And we all know what happened when the storm came. Now the 1996 storm was a complete different setup, but the point is models can completely not have a storm but have it show up a few days before the event. Remember we are still 4-5days away from the potential storm and the models are not really in that much of agreement. GFS is definite outlier. While I think our chances our slimming with this storm, it is way to early to rule out the storm. I have been analyzing weather maps and models all day and I can still see how this storm comes up the coast.



***I had a busy day today so expect my full updates after the 0z and 6z model runs tomorrow morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
60. cchamp6
12:12 AM GMT on March 21, 2008
Cool picture.
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59. Zachary Labe
11:59 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
During the early evening a few lake effect snow showers stretched into the mountains of the susquehanna valley. Most of the snowshowers were very weak, but as the sun set the snow showers were very photographic.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
58. Zachary Labe
10:58 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
I got a few neat pictures of a lake effect snow shower in our area with the sign bring out the virga in the storm. It it pretty cool. I will upload it tonight.
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57. cchamp6
9:40 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Mt.Washington link- Link
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56. cchamp6
9:32 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Hows it going Blizz?

Winds whipping up to 40 mph. It doesnt look so good for the storm next week. OK then bring on spring.

Sully plays golf?
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55. Zachary Labe
8:32 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
My latest thoughts and model analysis sections are coming tonight.
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54. Zachary Labe
8:02 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Weak clipper moving in area friday night and saturday. I would not expect much from it. It seems to get really torn apart by the mountains.
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53. TheRasberryPatch
7:59 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
what about the snow and rain they are calling for tomorrow evening. i am looking at wundergrounds forecast and they don't even have anything for monday. pretty amazing.
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52. Zachary Labe
7:54 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- My max gust was 34mph too. If the storm happen it looks to be Monday.
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51. TheRasberryPatch
7:43 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
can you tell me the time frame on the storm
we had a wind gust of 34 mph @ 215pm
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50. Zachary Labe
7:23 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Overall I feel much less confident about this storm as it is looking the disturbance may be too strong.
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49. Zachary Labe
7:20 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Good afternoon all! Model runs have all shifted well east with the storm as they expect polar vortex to be very strong which intern would surpress the storm out to sea. The 0z runs this morning all trended west and the 12z runs this afternoon all trended east. Tough to say what will happen with storm. CMC model is only model affecting the region with a snowstorm. So for now it is a waiting and watching time period. By tomorrow nights 0z runs then the final solution will be visibile most likely as the disturbance will be on land then and the models will get a feel for how strong it is.
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48. TheRasberryPatch
5:47 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
we went to a nice tree farm for a christmas tree in monticello i think. it was up the quickway about an hour. i recall passing a little shopping village on the right heading west on the quickway.
thats as far west as i got. if i went anywhere it was usually to the city or hyde park. new paltz was pretty but don't go there on the ny thruway on a sat in the fall. watching a football game at west point was so cool. what a great environment.
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47. sullivanweather
5:47 PM GMT on March 20, 2008


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46. sullivanweather
5:36 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Yeah, I moved to forestburgh in 2004, then to Bethel in 2006. Actually I'm about 1 mile from the original woodstock site. I can almost see it looking out my window. There's a hill in the way, though.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
45. TheRasberryPatch
5:25 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
thats it gasho was very inexpensive and a fun atmosphere.
there is a pretty expensive restaurant in sugarloaf. ate there twice, but it was good.
while my wife made the money, i worked a season on the maintenance staff of mansion ridge. played for 2 or 3 bucks a round. for a nicklaus course they had a lot of problems. people told me that the first contractor went under, the second one was similar and by the time the third one was hired they cut so many corners. they laid sod of bent grass ontop of clay in the fairway. but it was still a great track to play.
are you in sullivan county?
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44. sullivanweather
5:18 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Gasho!!! We go there at least once a year for a birthday dinner...lol We LOVE that place. I swear, those japanese chefs know more about pop culture than any of us do! LMAO

I've never played mansion ridge. I watched them build the entire thing, though. My grandmother lives about 1 miles from there and my uncle lives pretty much right up the street.

I worked at town of walkill golf course and got to play there for free everyday...lol

I live that course. challenging, scenic and I know just about every nook and cranny of it...haha
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43. TheRasberryPatch
5:05 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
yep, you know the restaurants well. my wife and i loved to go to them. she loved el banditos. that was no chi chis.
did you ever go to the japanese steakhouse or restaurant near woodberry commons. another name that i don't recall.
it was funny seeing the hisedic jews standing on the quickway on friday's looking for a ride to the camp.
do you golf. i used to play at mansion ridge in monroe.
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42. sullivanweather
4:57 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Cosimo's would be that brick over pizza resturaunt. El Bandidos was the mexican place, right across from the hippie store.

Love those resturaunts.

The owner of the Cosimos got killed or something a couple years ago. People tried robbing him at his house in Florida, I think.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
41. TheRasberryPatch
4:51 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
middletown had some nice stores. i shopped there often. they had a very nice brick oven pizza restaurant there. i also bought many plants down the road there going towards newburg in a nursery.
i lived in between chester and washingtonville.
also, middletown has a nice mexican restaurant.
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40. sullivanweather
4:36 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Yup! Sugarloaf is the name of the town.

I lived in Middletown from dec 1987 until april 2004 so I know the area quite well.
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39. TheRasberryPatch
4:13 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
yep, i wasn't too far from one field. in goshen there is a very big onion field. and the apple orchards were all over. i saw lots or Orioles living in orange county.
i did go to one corn farm in warwick. they had some really good corn. it was a mix of white and yellow and it was very sweet and crunchy. warwick is a very nice town to eat and drink. and so is sugarbush (i think that is what the little area is called) near warwick. its an arts and crafts little area.
i recall the people from the area saying that they harvest rocks and boulders.
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38. sullivanweather
4:04 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Rasberry,

Yeah, the soil here is very rocky. Glacial deposits and whatnot.

However, there's an absolute plethora of apple orchards. Also, in the center of Orange County there's the largest onion fields in the nation, I believe. The black dirt region there covers some 25,000+ acres
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37. TheRasberryPatch
3:58 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
sorry sully i don't recall it. at the time i was still in maryland. i didn't move to mid hudson until that summer. only lived there 2 years. a really nice area. it was also nice to drive to hyde park and enjoy the outdoors and visit a brewing pub there. not to mention eating at the CIA.
one thing that amazed me so much of that area was lack of farms growing crops. they say it was because of too rocky of soil.
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36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:49 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
it will run up offshore maybe scape the coast with some light snow showers that will be it sorry but thats just the way it is
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35. sullivanweather
3:27 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Rasberry,

Do you remember the 4/14-15/2000 storm??

2pm on the 14th it was 83 degrees out, then we got probably one of the strongest cold fronts I could ever remember and by 10pm that very night was was snowing. By noon the next day we had 6" of snow on the ground and they canceled tax day in our area until the 16th because of the storm.
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34. TheRasberryPatch
3:22 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
wow crowe, this time of the year that can't be fun unless you live on a mountain to ski or snowmobile. my daffodills are up almost 12" and are getting close to bloom.
the last time i had that type of snowpack was back in 2001 when i lived in the midhudson valley of new yawk. we had snow on the ground until mid april and it didn't help with a 6" snow storm around the 10th of april. that area was amazing for snow. if you were near the george washington bridge and it was rainin, it was snowing where i was 55 miles away.
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33. crowe1
3:03 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Excellent site!
I'll be sure to check back as we get closer. Also happy to lend any reports I have if you'd like.
Nothing in the ground here for quite awhile yet I'm afraid. We still have about a 10-12" snow/ice pack on the ground here:(
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32. TheRasberryPatch
2:34 PM GMT on March 20, 2008
Happy Spring. what time frame are you looking at for the big storm?
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31. Zachary Labe
10:20 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
Well thanks for the comments! Well I just got done seeing the 0z model runs. The CMC has trended northwest with a very strong coastal storm. The EURO has trended back northwest, but still only effects eastern frindges of PA. The UKMET is in between the CMC and EURO track. The GFS is still an outlier with well off coast track. The JMA is still all out blizzard. So overall I am pleased with the 0z runs. Happy spring!!!
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30. sullivanweather
1:13 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
We had our latest snow on record here in 2002 on May 18th. I'll never forget that one. When the flakes started falling I had to do a double take!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
29. Stormfront
1:09 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
Might as well go out on a limb. The experienced weathermen aren't any better at predicting the weather than the rest of us! In fact, there was a few times this season where you guys had a more accurate forcast then the experts!
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28. TheRasberryPatch
1:07 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
and if you go out on a limb and are wrong know that i will be there to let you know how wrong you were. j/k
i couldn't tell you the last time i watched a weather forecast on television or any other source blizz. i get my forecast from the MAN, blizz. glad you live in my area. you do a great job and are very thorough. just don't screw up or else. : )
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
27. jthal57
1:00 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
Blizzard-weather is a phenomena that consists of many factors (some we know of, and probably some we don't know of) which determine its existence, to which we attempt to predict. Yes, every forecast attempt is a learning experience. I marvel at guys like yourself and Sullivan at your forecasting abilities. You guys learn from every forecast, and that's what makes your forecasts interesting to read (and inspire us mere wx mortals). So, don't be afraid to "go out on a limb" from time-to-time, and learn from it, good or bad!
26. TheRasberryPatch
12:32 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
temp is 61 degrees. it has shot up since 6pm. 0.77" of rain today. barometer is 29.40" and falling.
i don't recall much of that storm of 97. i was living in sykesville, md at the time. sounds like a big storm where you were sully.
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25. BANGORWALKER
12:27 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
There is always April...
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24. cchamp6
12:23 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
Ok, the locals are saying we will get into the warmth over night and possible storms. I dont buy it though with the north easterly wind. We shall see.
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23. BANGORWALKER
12:22 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
Yes there has been snow recorded in May up here...
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22. Zachary Labe
12:18 AM GMT on March 20, 2008
cchamp6- The warm front is having problems moving north today and got delayed for my area too. But now finally temperatures have creeped up to 60degrees in the last hour after in the low 40s most of the day.
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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