Very Mild February for the Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:14 PM GMT on February 02, 2012

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 2/2)
The field of sciences often poses several ethical questions and conflictions. Instead of devouring these conceptions on paper, it may be of different note to look at another ethical question: Is it better to not know why some things happen? There are plenty of fields in all sciences that remain unclear ranging from the conceptual idea of what is the human conscience to our understanding of the cosmological timeline. While science places an emphasis on trying to understand such topics, one has to wonder if it is better not knowing the answer. Certainly most could argue that a better understanding in any field should lead to a myriad of solutions to increase the sustainability of the human race, but what if the answer is something we are better off not knowing. Perhaps lets focus on an example: is life unique to planet Earth? Either answer to this question can lead into somewhat unwanted responses. If we do find other sources of life (intelligent life), does this represent mass pandemonium in modern society? But what if we find out we are all alone in the cosmos... Does this answer find itself focused on the conceptual idea that we are indeed alone?

The sciences risk pushing this ethical boundary in every discovery, and while every new scientific document enhances our understanding, perhaps the answer is better off a mystery. Science will never have the answer to every problem and maybe that is for the better.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Updated 2/2)
Very boring seven day period for all of the Northeast under a zonal Pacific flow with few embedded shortwaves. This discussion will be quick and to the point.

Friday- A weak disturbance will approach western New York with widespread strato-cumulus across much of the Northeast north of Pennsylvania. South of the New York southern tier sunshine will prevail with temperatures reaching into the upper 40s as far north as the Pennsylvania turnpike. The low cloud deck and excess moisture around 10,000ft aloft will allow for the development of flurries and sprinkles mainly across New York State and northern New England. Highs in this region will be around 5F above normal. Sunshine may also peak out across southern and eastern New England. By Friday night light lake effect snow activity across New York will begin to dwindle with increase drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Any snow accumulation remain at an inch or less.

Saturday- Another weak disturbance approaches the Northeast with more widespread clouds particularily later in the day. Highs will be nearly 5-10F above normal for all locations with sunshine in the morning. Most snow shower activity with the disturbance will focus across northern New England and across New York. Snow accumulation will remain below 2in for all locations. Conditions will remain dry outside those listed regions.

Sunday/Monday- Warmer temperatures will enter much of the Northeast with highs nearing 10F above normal with partly cloudy skies for all areas.

Tuesday- A cold front will approach the region, but weak dynamics will prevent any QPF. A few lake effect snow showers are possible across typical snow belts, but accumulations will remain in the nuisance category. Highs will be about 5F above normal for all locations.

Wednesday-Friday- Sunshine with warmer than normal temperatures will continue to be the theme with no areas of weather hazards or interests. Temperatures will range from the lower 30s over northern Maine to low 50s near Washington DC for highs. Lows will be seasonal to slightly above.

Post Friday- Guidance has been hinting at a cold shot towards the weekend, but even this colder air will only put things likely at 'average.' No significant threats of snow look likely over this seven day period outside a few flurries and snow showers across the snow belts. QPF will remain below .1in for most all locations. A few models have hinted at a coastal storm towards Sunday scraping some locations, but for now I am not overly enthusiastic given the setup.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 2/2)
Very few chances of lake effect exist in the next seven days as high pressure dominates the daily weather forecast. A weak disturbance will approach northern New York State on Friday and will assist in the development of a few snow showers across northern New England. Model QPF is generally less than .03in so this will not be a big deal. A bit of Ontario-enhancement will allow for 1-2in snow totals Friday evening across the Tug Hill Plateau into northern Vermont throughout the western facing Greens. Another weak disturbance will approach western New York State in the Saturday/Sunday time period with a bit of lake enhancement. High shear values aloft and dry air will prevent any organized lake effect activity from forming, but a few streamers and showers are possibly mainly across the Tug Hill Plateau with a wind direction at 330 degrees. Any accumulation will remain below 3in. GFS indicates a bit of lake effect across the Finger Lakes given the northerly flow on Sunday, but any accumulation will remain below 1-2in favoring towns such as Dryden and Cortland. Warm air advection will cutoff any activity by late Sunday night as H85s begin to rise above 0C. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday with winds shifting to a north-northwesterly flow. H85s will drop sub -10C and will allow for a bit of instability to develop. This period has the highest threat of lake effect activity. But given the unfavorable direction, most organized streamers will not develop. Instead a more widespread multi-streamer event is likely across central New York with light to moderate amounts. Given the northerly flow, most lake effect snow activity will remain north of Pennsylvania outside Crawford, Erie, and Warren counties. Little to no lake effect is likely over the Laurel Highlands or western Maryland over the next 7 days. The best location will be across the Tug Hill Plateau and northern Vermont (higher elevations towards Mt. Mansfield) where 7-day totals of 4-8in are possible.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 2/2)
Given temperatures nearly 20F above normal over the last few days, much of the Northeast has little to no sign of winter outside the higher elevations in northern New England. Ice reports are few and far between with hardly any reports for mainstem rivers and even lakes. South of the New York freeway and the Massachusetts turnpike thin to no ice exists on most all waterways. This has definitely hurt the ice fishing industry given the frequent warmups preventing any large freezes. In fact cold spells have become the rarity and not thaws this winter. Outside locations in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont the ice remains to thin for any activity to take place. This will heighten the dangers over the next week for anyone near waterways; please use caution and remember to always check the thickness.

The ski and snowboard industry has also been hit hard this winter with continued cancellations each weekend plaguing many resorts including those up through Stowe and Killington. Frequent rainfall as far north as the Canadian border has prevented a powdery snow pack across the northern New England resorts. Farther south there has been a complete lack of natural snow even across the snow belts into the Laurel Highlands and Garret County, Maryland where Wisp, Seven Springs, etc. have had little to no natural snow over the last seven days. The outlook for the next week will continue the poor conditions with a zonal flow and general lack of precipitation. Even the upslope/lake effect machine will remain quiet instead of aiding the snowbelt resorts. The best conditions over the next week will be across northern Vermont where several weak disturbances will allow the upslope effect to squeeze out a probable 3-5in over the seven day period. Still though for early February odds, this is very poor.

-Link to official reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 2/2)
I have just posted my February forecast below. The next two week period looks to feature well above normal temperatures with well below normal precipitation; therefore the likelihood of snowfall is below climatological averages. The MJO will continue to rotate through phases 6-8 over the next two weeks with strong forcing. Composites indicate a mild pattern from this regime over the Northeast. The arctic oscillation is actually anomalously low (near the record low values of 2010) which is quite coincidental given the record high values back in December. But the other teleconnections are not in favor to send this arctic air across North America especially given the swirling Alaskan Vortex. Much of this cold air has been focused across Europe into parts of Siberia. Model prognostics indicate a dominate 1060hPa anticyclone (models will verify too high for pressure) over Siberia. Arctic air will flood this region of the world over the next two weeks, while North America is sitting under a zonal Pacific regime. Very few perturbations in the jet will characterize a very dry period over the next two weeks. This is supported by recent global model runs indicating less than .4in for most of the Northeast over a 16 day period.

Any potential for snow will remain slim. A few ensemble runs have noted the February 10-12 period as of particular interest, but the placement of the polar and subtropical jet do not appear favorable. While there will be occasional cold fronts with 1-2 day periods of cooler weather, the overall pattern is mild with many days running 5-10F above normal. I cannot rule out an unexpected snow threat, but it is likely this will appear at the last minute on guidance if it should occur. Given the end of the Nina flow, chaos has consumed most model guidance especially post 3 days. Therefore any model output should be taken with a grain of salt. If one can get past operational and ensemble model output, the overall pattern is similar to that of much of this winter.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(February)(Updated 2/2)
Using the MJO teleconnection and I rollover technique, my February forecast will be a continuation of the mild theme of the past nearly 12 months. Current ECMWF ensemble and GEFS guidance suggests the monsoonal patterns in the Indian Ocean will maintain MJO phases 5-8. Looking at quick composites of these phases and their associated global surface temperature anomalies, there is a clear indication of positive numbers over much of North America, particularily across the United States. While many forecasters have pointed at other indices including the -AO, the general Pacific and Atlantic regimes continue to lock up the cold on the other portions of the globe. This will likely continue through much of February. As we enter the end of the month, the MJO phase composites become a bit more favorable towards phases 1+. This may allow a bit of colder air to bleed south out of Canada. Current CFS and ECMWF weeklies indicate anomalous warmth across much of the eastern United States. This is also supported by several operational model runs. Given the La Nina-lag effects, February will likely be a very mild month for many climatological reporting stations.

Temperatures- Given the La Nina rollover effects, mild Pacific air will continue to flood much of the lower 48. I am predicting anomalies of (+)3.0-(+)3.5F for most all climatological reporting stations. This fits the regime of the past several winter months also.

Precipitation- The general zonal flow will inhibit most strong cyclogenesis and middle latitude cyclone development for at least the first half of the month. Precipitation looks to average at or below normal for most all climatological reporting stations. Snowfall is a difficult variable to predict given any possible outlier that can easily skew totals. None the less I will use probabilities for this forecast... higher likelihood of below normal snowfall

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total- (January)- 5.2in
Seasonal Total- 11.1in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - January 18 - 0.2in of snow
Southwest Flow Event - January 21 - 5.0in of dry snow

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97. listenerVT
5:18 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
Today's high temperature at Burlington International Airport was
50 degrees. This ties the daily record high for the day set back
in 2005.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
96. wxgeek723
3:46 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
Hopefully on Wednesday Philly can bring its snowfall for this winter up to an astounding THREE inches. Lol .___.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3451
95. Zachary Labe
3:29 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
0z NAM is a nice 1-3in for along the PA turnpike and on south to the bordering northern Maryland counties for Wednesday...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
94. TheRasberryPatch
1:48 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
MM - nice job with all the stats. It's nice to see and I am sure it is tedious work.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
93. listenerVT
1:43 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
It hit 48F here today!

I can't say I disliked it, since the sun was out. But it seems more like early April than early February. I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop...like a wildly snowy second half of the season. But if that doesn't seem to be in the offing, are we looking at a viciously hot Summer with drought setting in by July? I have never owned an air conditioner. Is it time?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
92. listenerVT
1:40 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
March & April look warm for those talking about planting.

I'm probly gonna start a wildflower garden outback in April with bird feeder & birdbath etc. Nobody uses the area & the landlord here is really cool with that kind of stuff. The area where I'm planning looked like crap last summer.


Nice! What wildflowers do you especially like?

You might consider getting some seed from the Vermont Wildflower Farm. They have special mixes for all areas of the country and all sun and shade situations. Or you could get individual packets of seed you like. It's very high quality seed!



Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
91. MariettaMoon
1:09 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
Since we're kind of talking about it, I figured I'd post these. 12"+ snowstorm records were hard to come by for Boston, Baltimore & Washington. NWS Bal & Was have their storms listed in 1-2 day and 1-3 day top tens. Plus, I've already taken up a lot of room with these posts and I don't feel like doing those other cities right now anyway lol.

New York Central Park

12"+ SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1869/1870 – 1870/1871: 0 *(2 seasons)
1871/1872 – 1880/1881: 3
1881/1882 – 1890/1891: 2
1891/1892 – 1900/1901: 1
1901/1902 – 1910/1911: 0
1911/1912 – 1920/1921: 4
1921/1922 – 1930/1931: 1
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 2
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 2
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 4
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 3
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 3
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 3
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 7
------------------------------------------------- --------

18"+ SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1869/1870 – 1870/1871: 0 *(2 seasons)
1871/1872 – 1880/1881: 1
1881/1882 – 1890/1891: 0
1891/1892 – 1900/1901: 0
1901/1902 – 1910/1911: 0
1911/1912 – 1920/1921: 0
1921/1922 – 1930/1931: 0
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 1
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 1
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 0
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 1
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 5
------------------------------------------------- --------

24”+ SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1869/1870 – 1870/1871: 0 *(2 seasons)
1871/1872 – 1880/1881: 0
1881/1882 – 1890/1891: 0
1891/1892 – 1900/1901: 0
1901/1902 – 1910/1911: 0
1911/1912 – 1920/1921: 0
1921/1922 – 1930/1931: 0
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 1
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 0
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 0
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 0
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 1
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
90. MariettaMoon
12:56 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
Millersville University



I added 15" and 21" to iron out the typical higher amounts northwest of the I-95 corridor.

12" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1926/1927 - 1930/1931: 1 *(5 seasons)
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 1
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 2
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 7
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 1
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 2
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 2
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 4
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 5

15" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1926/1927 - 1930/1931: 1 *(5 seasons)
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 2
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 2
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 1
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 2
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 4

18" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1926/1927 - 1930/1931: 0 *(5 seasons)
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 0
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 1
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 2
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 3

21" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1926/1927 - 1930/1931: 0 *(5 seasons)
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 0
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 0
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 1
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 2

24" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1926/1927 - 1930/1931: 0 *(5 seasons)
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 0
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 0
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 1
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 1
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
89. PhillySnow
12:35 AM GMT on February 07, 2012
Quoting TheF1Man:


I'm also not a fan of either. Maybe it wasn't as exciting as other years, but it came down to the last couple of drives. Shootouts are exciting, but I enjoyed watching both defenses pull up some big stops and make some hard hits.
I didn't get to see all that much of the game, but loved the final "sit down" touchdown. That was classic!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
88. TheF1Man
8:10 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I am neither team fan, but I thought it was a boring game. Just no exciting plays.

Blizz - so the WU forecast may be on target for Wednesday?


I'm also not a fan of either. Maybe it wasn't as exciting as other years, but it came down to the last couple of drives. Shootouts are exciting, but I enjoyed watching both defenses pull up some big stops and make some hard hits.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
87. NEwxguy
7:33 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
This amazing winter continues.At least you guys in the mid-atlantic area look at possible 1 inch snowfalls,up here in new in eastern Mass,we go weeks without seeing a snowflake,Cape Cod and the islands have a better chance at snow from ocean effect snow.
And the patter of on 50 degree day a week continues.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15585
86. Zachary Labe
6:26 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I am neither team fan, but I thought it was a boring game. Just no exciting plays.

Blizz - so the WU forecast may be on target for Wednesday?

I can see how areas like Harrisburg and areas that received snow the other day receive a quick 1in of snow on Wednesday. Surface temperatures may be a limiting factor though for some areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
85. PhillySnow
4:38 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Mount Holly is forecasting possible light snow Wednesday and/or Saturday. Does anyone see a possibility of this? They mentioned that a low may be developing off the North Carolina coast.

Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
84. PhillySnow
4:30 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


Remember you are talking about a major metro city right along the coast. I remember growing up north of Baltimore in Towson and temps were crucial on a lot of storms. We would be getting snow and Baltimore city was a mix. Also, Baltimore's official site is BWI which is south of the city. So I tend to think some of those measurements are a bit skewed because of it being in a metro city. I also recall living in Towson we always heard that Harrisburg was the winner for snow. Especially if we were getting a 33F rain. One other thing...I grew up in Baltimore County which is a county surrounding Baltimore city to the east, north and west and they had a section for school closings or delayed openings called the Hereford area. It was from Hunt Valley north to PA line. A lot of times they would be colder and have more snow or ice than us in Towson.

I guess what I am saying is stats taking from a metro city aren't always what the surrounding areas see.
Very true, RP. Can't compare apples and oranges.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
83. TheRasberryPatch
2:19 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting PhillySnow:
That is really interesting, MM! I'm surprised by them - I'd have thought there would have been more large snowstorms in earlier years. I grew up in New York, though; so it could be that we just got more snow there.


Remember you are talking about a major metro city right along the coast. I remember growing up north of Baltimore in Towson and temps were crucial on a lot of storms. We would be getting snow and Baltimore city was a mix. Also, Baltimore's official site is BWI which is south of the city. So I tend to think some of those measurements are a bit skewed because of it being in a metro city. I also recall living in Towson we always heard that Harrisburg was the winner for snow. Especially if we were getting a 33F rain. One other thing...I grew up in Baltimore County which is a county surrounding Baltimore city to the east, north and west and they had a section for school closings or delayed openings called the Hereford area. It was from Hunt Valley north to PA line. A lot of times they would be colder and have more snow or ice than us in Towson.

I guess what I am saying is stats taking from a metro city aren't always what the surrounding areas see.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
82. PhillySnow
1:38 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
I thought these were some cool stats for Philly Int'l...


That is really interesting, MM! I'm surprised by them - I'd have thought there would have been more large snowstorms in earlier years. I grew up in New York, though; so it could be that we just got more snow there.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
81. TheRasberryPatch
1:08 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TheF1Man:
Congrats to the Giants and any fans here! Great game, loved every second.


I am neither team fan, but I thought it was a boring game. Just no exciting plays.

Blizz - so the WU forecast may be on target for Wednesday?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
80. Zachary Labe
12:46 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Some guidance is suggesting a weak shortwave with a coating to one inch of snow midweek across Pennsylvania. I guess it is something.... lol
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
79. wunderstorm87
11:43 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
The 06z GFS has about 3 coastal storms in the long term. I'd settle for just one honestly, but it doesn't look too likely given the positive NAO.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
78. Hoynieva
5:42 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TheF1Man:
Welcome back Hoy, sounds like the trip went well! Really want to go abroad someday myself.

I'm still hoping for snow before the official end to winter, but like Hoy said I don't want another cold and rainy spring. Even last year was tough. I remember going to soccer practices and it being 40 and rainy all the time up to the first week of may. It was probably different for you guys south and west of me though. Mother nature does have her ways of averaging things out.



Thanks much, F1. Those are the two things I enjoy most, growing and roaming the earth...so I do them both as much as possible.

Quoting Blizzard92:

Welcome back! It sounds like a wonderful trip. You were very lucky to see the snow in Rome; I bet it made for amazing pictures! I am so jealous!


I guess I worded that poorly. I wasn't in Rome, just saw it on the news. The only snow I saw was whilst in Spain, but it was hitting lower altitudes than usual, sticking as low as 100 meters. Also had some hail in San Sebastian the day prior to that, with incredible wind gusts which broke many umbrellas. Waves in the Cantabrian Sea were enormous and there were a few diehard surfers out in water that was likely similar to the air temp of 45.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
77. TheF1Man
3:41 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Congrats to the Giants and any fans here! Great game, loved every second.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
76. MariettaMoon
3:03 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
I thought these were some cool stats for Philly Int'l...


12" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1884/1885 - 1890/1891: 1 *(7 seasons)
1891/1892 - 1900/1901: 0
1901/1902 - 1910/1911: 2
1911/1912 - 1920/1921: 1
1921/1922 - 1930/1931: 1
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 2
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 0
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 3
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 1
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 3
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 2
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 9

18" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1884/1885 - 1890/1891: 1 *(7 seasons)
1891/1892 - 1900/1901: 0
1901/1902 - 1910/1911: 1
1911/1912 - 1920/1921: 1
1921/1922 - 1930/1931: 0
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 0
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 0
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 1
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 1
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 3

24" PLUS SNOWSTORMS PER DECADE OF TIME
1884/1885 - 1890/1891: 0 *(7 seasons)
1891/1892 - 1900/1901: 0
1901/1902 - 1910/1911: 0
1911/1912 - 1920/1921: 0
1921/1922 - 1930/1931: 0
1931/1932 - 1940/1941: 0
1941/1942 - 1950/1951: 0
1951/1952 - 1960/1961: 0
1961/1962 - 1970/1971: 0
1971/1972 - 1980/1981: 0
1981/1982 - 1990/1991: 0
1991/1992 - 2000/2001: 1
2001/2002 - 2010/2011: 1
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
75. MariettaMoon
2:51 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

It is a shame how much brilliant cold is being wasted on the other side of the globe, lol. Great winter for parts of Europe, Alaska, and Asia.


Even though this winter stinks and is frustrating for us, I can accept it because of the huge surplus of the last two winters, especially where I was near Trenton. You gotta roll with the punches with such high winter snow variability in the Mid-Atlantic.

It sure would be cool if some of that true polar air would spill down our way one of these years. I'm talking below zero stuff in the I-95 corridor.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
74. Zachary Labe
2:42 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
According to the WU forecast the next week looks a bit active.

Is the southern jet getting active?

This coming week is sunshine and clouds with pretty much no precipitation for the next seven days.

Quoting PengSnow:
BLIZZ, The gulf is looking real warm for this time of the year, could this affect us in terms of getting more of the gulf to interact with a winter storm and flow up the appalacians or coast getting more precip involved? Was there ever a winter tropical storm, something identical to the 1952 Groundhog storm?

It would certainly allow for a more rapid cyclongenesis should an east coast storm form, but every situation is different so it is impossible to make such a broad of a statement. I am not familiar with the 1952 storm; I will have to look it up.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
73. PengSnow
1:08 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
BLIZZ, The gulf is looking real warm for this time of the year, could this affect us in terms of getting more of the gulf to interact with a winter storm and flow up the appalacians or coast getting more precip involved? Was there ever a winter tropical storm, something identical to the 1952 Groundhog storm?
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
72. TheRasberryPatch
12:17 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
According to the WU forecast the next week looks a bit active.

Is the southern jet getting active?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
71. bwi
12:10 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Except for a freezing fog advisory in the Cascades, looks to me like the only winter weather advisory in the 48 contiguous states is a couple counties in NW New Mexico. Nothing else? Anywhere?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
70. Zachary Labe
11:37 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
March & April look warm for those talking about planting.

I'm probly gonna start a wildflower garden outback in April with bird feeder & birdbath etc. Nobody uses the area & the landlord here is really cool with that kind of stuff. The area where I'm planning looked like crap last summer.

It is a shame how much brilliant cold is being wasted on the other side of the globe, lol. Great winter for parts of Europe, Alaska, and Asia.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
69. Zachary Labe
11:32 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting bwi:
Hi Blizz!

Well, the winter that fizzled keeps fizzling. We ended up having great weather for our ride today.

I know it's way too early, but if your 2-week prognosto-scope is feeling springy, I'd be interested in your early thoughts about President's Day weekend. Thinking about taking a group down to DC for a 40 mile ride.

I've pretty much given up on snow, but we're making up for this lack of winter by getting a head start on spring activities.

The next period of wintry weather (possibly? lol) will be around February 10-14. Otherwise it remains a bit inconsistent/uncertain for temperature trends after that period. Going off my February forecast though I tend to favor the warmer end of the stick for that second two week period.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
68. bwi
11:23 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Hi Blizz!

Well, the winter that fizzled keeps fizzling. We ended up having great weather for our ride today.

I know it's way too early, but if your 2-week prognosto-scope is feeling springy, I'd be interested in your early thoughts about President's Day weekend. Thinking about taking a group down to DC for a 40 mile ride.

I've pretty much given up on snow, but we're making up for this lack of winter by getting a head start on spring activities.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
67. MariettaMoon
10:26 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Got Invest 90L in the Caribbean & an intersting disturbance in the western Gulf.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
66. MariettaMoon
9:50 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
March & April look warm for those talking about planting.

I'm probly gonna start a wildflower garden outback in April with bird feeder & birdbath etc. Nobody uses the area & the landlord here is really cool with that kind of stuff. The area where I'm planning looked like crap last summer.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
65. PengSnow
9:48 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Snowed yesterday at a good clip in the South Hills of PGH, mostly gone today. This weather is killing me, I like the seasons, but this weather is just plain boring. If we get one more warm week, my Bradford Pears Trees might bloom.

Onto Chicago tomorrow until Friday.

Hopefully, by the time I get back there are some solid forecasted snowstorms.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
64. MariettaMoon
9:29 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
JANUARY 2012 UNITED STATES & CANADA TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE SUMMARY

States & Territories are listed from west to east. The Arctic Circle runs through those above the dashed line. Those below the dashed line are entirely south of the Arctic Circle.

Canadian departures are as compared to the 1971-2000 climate normal period.

United States departures are as compared to the 1981-2010 climate normal period.


ARCTIC CIRCLE

ALASKA
STATIONS: 15
MEAN: -13.2F
MEDIAN: -10.6F
RANGE: -23.9F to -1.4F

YUKON TERRITORY
STATIONS: 4
MEAN: -3.6F
MEDIAN: -3.3F
RANGE: -7.4F to -0.2F

NORTHWEST TERRITORRIES
STATIONS: 6
MEAN: 5.0F
MEDIAN: 5.2F
RANGE: 1.1F to 7.9F

NANUVAT
STATIONS: 10
MEAN: 1.4F
MEDIAN: 1.2F
RANGE: -0.9F to 4.1F
--------------------------------------

SOUTH OF ARCTIC CIRCLE

BRITISH COLUMBIA
STATIONS: 92
MEAN: 0.7F
MEDIAN: 0.1F
RANGE: -12.2F to 9.5F

ALBERTA
STATIONS: 29
MEAN: 7.6F
MEDIAN: 8.1F
RANGE: 0.7F to 11.5F

SASKATCHEWAN
STATIONS: 36
MEAN: 11.6F
MEDIAN: 11.8F
RANGE: 5.4F to 20.2F

MANITOBA
STATIONS: 23
MEAN: 11.4F
MEDIAN: 11.3F
RANGE: 5.6F to 15.7F

ONTARIO
STATIONS: 43
MEAN: 7.2F
MEDIAN: 7.4F
RANGE: 3.2F to 10.6F

QUEBEC
STATIONS: 12
MEAN: 3.9F
MEDIAN: 3.8F
RANGE: 2.0F to 5.8F

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
STATIONS: 21
MEAN: 4.4F
MEDIAN: 4.7F
RANGE: -1.1F to 11.0F

NEW BRUNSWICK
STATIONS: 9
MEAN: 4.5F
MEDIAN: 4.7F
RANGE: 2.2F to 7.2F

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
STATIONS: 3
MEAN: 5.0F
MEDIAN: 5.0F
RANGE: 4.9F to 5.2F

NOVA SCOTIA
STATIONS: 10
MEAN: 4.2F
MEDIAN: 4.4F
RANGE: 1.4F to 6.1F
-----------------------------
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
63. HeavySnow
7:36 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting goofyrider:
49.6N, 11.8E

Down to (-) 7 this am capping a string of days with below zero lows. days get up to teens or 20's but it is still cold. No new snow. Skies at night have been very clear but the moon is not helping with stargazing.


Where are you living Goofy?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
62. photonchaser
7:32 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Invest in the GOMEX. That's starting early!


wow! Hope this isn't suggesting a bad hurricane season.
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
61. originalLT
6:25 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Invest in the GOMEX. That's starting early!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7405
60. Zachary Labe
6:13 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Hoynieva:
Hello all, it's been a while. I just returned from what turned into a 6 week trip abroad, first 3 in Thailand and the last 3 in Spain where a Siberian cold wave came through for the final week of my stay, as I'm sure you've heard about. There were flurries in Barcelona the day after I left (for Madrid), which is rare, and Rome just got its second night of snow (4 inches)...incredibly rare. The final three days of my stay were bitterly cold for there, with highs around freezing and high winds. The only snow I saw on the trip was when we drove from the city of San Sebastian, in the north of Spain, to Pamplona. For about 50 miles we went through quite a bit of snow while it fell moderately the entire time. It was nice to see, as the only other snow I saw this season was our storm back in October. How's it been here? I hear that it's continued to be rather dry and unseasonably warm, but there was some sort of snow on the East coast at least at some point.

By the way, I know LT asked me to check in while away, and I tried to, but it turns out I forgot my password and it's saved on my laptop, which I left at home. Hope all is well with everyone.

Welcome back! It sounds like a wonderful trip. You were very lucky to see the snow in Rome; I bet it made for amazing pictures! I am so jealous!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
59. goofyrider
5:43 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
49.6N, 11.8E

Down to (-) 7 this am capping a string of days with below zero lows. days get up to teens or 20's but it is still cold. No new snow. Skies at night have been very clear but the moon is not helping with stargazing.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2723
58. TheF1Man
4:13 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Welcome back Hoy, sounds like the trip went well! Really want to go abroad someday myself.

I'm still hoping for snow before the official end to winter, but like Hoy said I don't want another cold and rainy spring. Even last year was tough. I remember going to soccer practices and it being 40 and rainy all the time up to the first week of may. It was probably different for you guys south and west of me though. Mother nature does have her ways of averaging things out.

Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
57. Hoynieva
3:55 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Thanks, LT, Philly and MM.

This is a respite from the previous few winters. Winter will eventually return in full force, be it next year or the following. I'm just hoping now that this winter is a bust, Spring arrives in a timely manner rather than the cold and precip arriving late, making for a cool wet prolonged start to the season, like 2009. I'd like to start my seeds indoors at the end of the month and then begin getting my pots and supplies in order on the roofs in mid to late march. Looking forward to the approaching growing season, as always.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
56. Mason803
2:30 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Does that COOP still report from South Mountain and keep winter statistics for snowfall?


yes they do. It is done by an employee at the restoration center up there. he is not there to measure every 6 hours during events which often gives them lower amounts than what actually fell. this is the same for biglerville. nws loves to choose business like locations for coop sits in hopes of long records from one site but it often doesn't give you the best data
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
55. pittsburghnurse
2:26 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
It's a glorious spring like day with brilliant sunshine and a starting off temp of 34. The only thing that's missing is the flowering.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
54. Zachary Labe
2:04 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Mason803:


1.5" up on green ridge (1400ft)

0.3" for me in Cashtown

Does that COOP still report from South Mountain and keep winter statistics for snowfall?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
53. Mason803
1:35 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Congrats to any who got snow last night and yesterday!


1.5" up on green ridge (1400ft)

0.3" for me in Cashtown
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
52. Zachary Labe
1:11 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Congrats to any who got snow last night and yesterday!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
51. PhillySnow
1:10 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
35F going up to 46F today. Sunny. No precip last night.

Good for you for driving to some snow, MM! I'm watching forecasts for the Poconos - any snow on the weekend and I'm there. I may just go up anyway and hang out under the snowmaking machines.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
50. listenerVT
6:13 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Team Vermont wins National Snow Sculpting contest!
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201202 04/NEWS02/120204032/Team-Vermont-wins-National-Sno w-Sculpting-contest?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONT PAGE


Entry: "Inner Peace"
(It's the big egg with the diamond shaped cut-outs and an ice character inside that looks like a puzzle piece. What makes this entry so amazing is how they hollowed it out without disturbing the structure.)

Photos here: https://www.facebook.com/usnationals?v=wall

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
49. TheRasberryPatch
1:54 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
I see Maryland got a bit of snow. The area I was talking about last night got close to 2". That is a pleasant surprise considering the forecast didn't mention anything about snow until late yesterday afternoon.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
48. MariettaMoon
11:49 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting Hoynieva:
Hello all, it's been a while. I just returned from what turned into a 6 week trip abroad, first 3 in Thailand and the last 3 in Spain where a Siberian cold wave came through for the final week of my stay, as I'm sure you've heard about. There were flurries in Barcelona the day after I left (for Madrid), which is rare, and Rome just got its second night of snow (4 inches)...incredibly rare. The final three days of my stay were bitterly cold for there, with highs around freezing and high winds. The only snow I saw on the trip was when we drove from the city of San Sebastian, in the north of Spain, to Pamplona. For about 50 miles we went through quite a bit of snow while it fell moderately the entire time. It was nice to see, as the only other snow I saw this season was our storm back in October. How's it been here? I hear that it's continued to be rather dry and unseasonably warm, but there was some sort of snow on the East coast at least at some point.

By the way, I know LT asked me to check in while away, and I tried to, but it turns out I forgot my password and it's saved on my laptop, which I left at home. Hope all is well with everyone.


With the extreme warmth & jet stream displacement way north on this side of the globe, the Polar airmass gets dislodged and spills over the other side of the globe with extreme cold on the other side of the globe.

I like to think of the atmosphere more like oil (cold) & water (warm), which seperate and don't like to mix. As the warmth surges poleward, the cold surges towards the equator on the other side, creating extremes on both sides.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
47. MariettaMoon
11:38 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Took a little exploratory drive to see if it was snowing in the Hallam Hills right across the River here. A couple of the hill tops go just over 1000ft.

Left Marietta (280ft) at 5pm, 37F Cloudy

Drove west on I-30 & crossed the Susquehanna. Light Rain & Snow mix on other side along the highway(350ft-480ft), 35F.

Exited at 24/Mt Zion Rd which is 7.5 miles southwest of Marietta. 35F, mix

Turned to all light snow 34F-33F up the road above 600ft.

Headed into Rocky Ridge County Park about 5.8 miles southwest of Marietta, 32F with Light Snow at 5:15pm with some frosting on evergreens & a few spots on longer grass, 800ft-920ft. A couple deer passed the road in front of me.

Headed up Druck Valley Rd / Tower Rd to the WGAL Transmitters (exactly where the white dot on the WGAL radar above), 3.7 miles WSW of Marietta. Light snow with bigger flakes, 32F between 960ft-1000ft (Transmitters / radar are around 1040ft) at 5:30pm-5:40pm. Was wondering if the bigger flakes were due to the extra 700ft or so of lift, or just a coincidence. Hung around there for a few minutes.

Went back down southeast to about 380ft to the first onramp west of the River where it was 35F with mix again.

Crossed back over the river where it was still just cloudy, 36F when I returned to Marietta at 6pm.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
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Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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