First Significant Winter Storm; Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 4:41 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A weak shortwave and warm air advection will spark a shield of precipitation across the Northeast where a recent arctic air mass has moved in allowing for widespread wintry precipitation. This will be the first significant winter storm for the Northeast this season causing some moderate travel and other problems.

Current Surface Plot...

(Courtesy of HPC)

January 21 Southwest Flow Event (SWFE) Timeline and Discussion...
Current surface observations across the Northeast indicate a relatively dense arctic air mass over the region. Dew points remain generally in the single digits across northern areas while temperatures will struggle to reach freezing as far south as Washington DC. A zonal flow accompanied by a shortwave dropping out of the Rockies will set the stage for the first widespread winter storm this winter season across the eastern United States. The progressive jet stream will maintain a fast progression of the shortwave as it advances eastward across the contiguous United States. A southeast ridge associated with increasing upper level heights will attempt to push an area of warmer air into the Northeast. But the passing of a cold front overnight Thursday has allowed for a dry and cold air mass to reach as far south as Virginia. This battleground for temperatures will set up a thermal gradient from west to east around a latitude line near Washington DC. This position will assist in the exact track of the shortwave.

Actual dynamics for the shortwave remain relatively weak with little amplification as it translates east. This is a classic southwest flow event with the precipitation primarily fueled by warm air advection acting as a lifting mechanism over the region.

Looking at past climatology several things can be noted in these types of setups. There will often be a widespread precipitation shield that stretches farther north than computer models are able to detect. Precipitation rates can be very significant closer to the track of the 850hPa low. Typically there are two belts of the heaviest snowfall. One belt exists 50-100mi due north of the track of the 850hPa low. Another heavy snow belt exists in the coldest sector of the storm where ratios in the arctic air mass account for ideal dendritic growth.

Many people in recent days have noted that these southwest flow events often shift northward as the event approaches. This is likely the case due to the underestimated strength of the southeast ridge an anomalous warm air advection. But in this case the shortwave is meager and therefore the dynamics are actually be squashed by the northern stream. This likely was the reason we saw a southerly shift in model guidance. Also many SWFE's are accompanied by an underestimated warm tongue. Therefore while areas 25-50mi north of the H85 0C line are only receiving sleet instead of snow; this is because there is a warm tongue in the mid levels of the atmosphere. I have accounted for this possibility in my forecast.

The cold air damming in this setup is quite impressive given a 1028mb anticyclone to the north accompanied by an arctic air mass. Dew points in the single digits to teens will allow surface temperatures and the entire thermal column to cool by evaporational cooling and wetbulbing during the first hour or two of the storm system. Given this possibility, I believe a 1-2 hour period of snow is even possible as far south as Washington DC.

Looking at mesoscale features of this event, these SWFE's often produce a heavy burst of the snow on the front end typically accompanied by high snow rates. If the warm tongue can remain push backed by the density of the cold air mass, then some areas may see more snow than forecast. I would expect the development of several mesoscale bands including the formation of a possible CIS band across areas about 50mi north of the mix line. This band may affect areas around the Pennsylvania turnpike north to I-80. This may affect areas also such as NYC, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The weak dynamics of this shortwave will prevent heavy QPF despite a relatively good flow from the Gulf of Mexico. QPF will likely be in the range .35-.6in range for most locations. Snow ratios in the coldest sector of the storm system around I-80 will be nearly 20:1. Soundings in this region indicate excellent dendritic snow growth in the -15C sector. Large flakes are possible during the height of the event.

The quick progressive nature of the jet will allow precipitation to only last in one location for no more than 6-8 hours and will be well out of the Northeast by Saturday afternoon and early evening. Low dew points should allow for some virga on the onset, but I am increasing my start time due to the past history of SWFE warm air advection precipitation to break out earlier than anticipated. Confidence in this forecast remains relatively high with only a few discrepancies noted for snow amounts towards the mix region.

7-10pm Friday: Stratus and cirrus decks over the Northeast will begin to thicken as the shortwave begins to approach the region. Warm air advection precipitation will begin to break out across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York State in the form of light snow. Visibilities will remain around 2-4mi with weak forcing and meager lift at this point.

10-12am Friday: This period will define the majority of the precipitation developing over the region in the form of light snow across the entire Northeast south to Washington DC. Snow rates will begin to increase across western Pennsylvania with 1in accumulation possible in this period. Light snow will move into NYC and southern New England in this period also.

12am-4am Saturday: Precipitation will increase in intensity in this period across Pennsylvania and Maryland. We will also begin to see warm air aloft moving northward into southwestern Pennsylvania and parts of Maryland. Areas will begin to change to freezing rain and sleet as far north as a line from Pittsburgh, PA to Frederick, MD. Snow rates will be near .5in or 1in/hr especially over Pennsylvania. Light snow will continue to be falling in southern New England also. Areas towards central and southern Maryland will change to rain.

4-7am Saturday: The heaviest snows will pull out of Pennsylvania into southern New England. Warm air advection will allow mid levels to rise above freezing as far north as the Pennsylvania turnpike with sleet and freezing rain possible as far south as extreme northern Maryland to the northwest Philadelphia suburbs. Snow rates of 1-2in/hr are possible in southern New England down into New York City.

7-11am Saturday: The heaviest snows will pull into eastern New England with only light to moderate precipitation back eastward into New Jersey. Most precipitation will be pulling out of Pennsylvania. The mix line will reach the southern New England coastline with rain over Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

Regional Radar...
(Courtesy of Intellicast)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

This is my current freezing rain/rain line...
Winchester, VA - Baltimore, MD - Wilmington, DE - Southampton, NJ - Middletown, NJ - Brentwood, NY - Chatham, MA

***Areas north of the line will stay primarily below freezing for the entire event with a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Areas south of the line may see some wintry precipitation also, but will be primarily rain for the majority of the event.

This is my current mix/snow line...
Butler, PA - Indiana, PA - Altoona, MD - Harrisburg, PA - Reading, PA - Allentown, PA - Newark, NJ - New London, CT - Plymouth, MA

***Areas north of the line will stay primarily snow through the entire event. Areas south of the line will start as snow and eventually change to a mix at some point for the event. Advisory criteria snows are possible as far south as 50mi south of this line.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. First widespread winter event of the season affecting the entire I-95 corridor.
2. Significant ice accretions in excess of .25in are possible for the higher elevations in southern Pennsylvania and parts of Maryland.
3. Quick thump of snow will allow for a period of 1-2in/hr rates.
4. Snow accumulations will be near warning criteria of 6in for some locations.
5. Cold temperatures in the teens and twenties will allow for easy accumulations of ice and snow.

Snow Maps...


***The areas in the mix region may also see accumulations of 1-2in of snow/sleet. The large region of 5-10in will likely be in reality a region of 4-8in amounts. I do not expect any 10in snow totals for any locations. If any changes to this map were to be made, it probably is to shift the snow totals a bit to the north across southern Pennsylvania given the warm mid layer may be underestimated. But for now no changes look necessary.



***The area of lowest confidence is along southern Pennsylvania where mixing concerns are a possibility especially in central and eastern Pennsylvania. The Laurel Highlands have a stronger confidence forecast given the high likelihood of freezing rain after some light snow accumulations.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 1-3in of snow followed by .25in of freezing rain
Baltimore, MD- 1-2in of snow followed by .25in of freezing rain
Salisbury, MD- Up to 1in of snow followed by a mix then rain
Pittsburgh, PA- 2-4in of snow followed by freezing rain up to .25in
State College PA- 4-8in of snow
Williamsport, PA- 4-8in of snow
Altoona, PA- 3-7in of snow followed by .1in of freezing rain or sleet
Harrisburg, PA- 3-7in of snow followed by .1in of freezing rain or sleet
Lancaster, PA- 2-4in of snow followed by .25in of freezing rain
Philadelphia, PA- 1-3in of snow followed by .1in of freezing rain then rain
Allentown, PA- 4-6in of snow possibly mixing with sleet
Scranton, PA- 4-8in of snow
Washington, DC- Up to 1in of snow with a trace of freezing rain then rain
Wilmington, DE- 1-2in of snow then freezing rain and rain
Dover, DE- Mix of precipitation followed by rain
Trenton, NJ- 2-5in of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain with trace accumulations
New York City, NY- 3-6in of snow followed by a bit of sleet/freezing rain
Poughkeepsie, NY- 4-6in of snow
Binghamton, NY- 3-6in of snow
Ithaca, NY- 2-4in of snow
Albany, NY- 2-4in of snow
Hartford, CT- 4-7in of snow
Concord, NH- 1-3in of snow
Providence, RI- 3-7in of snow followed by a freezing rain/sleet mix
Worcester, MA- 2-4in of snow
Boston, MA- 2-4in of snow
Nantucket, MA- 1-4in of snow followed by plain rain
Hyannis, MA- 2-4in of snow followed by a mix then plain rain
Burlington, VT- 1-2in of snow
Portland, ME- Less than 1in of snow
Bangor, ME- Less than 1in of snow
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
The main model discrepancies exist in the position and strength of the 850hPa low. The latest NAM runs indicate a track across southern Pennsylvania. Given snow climatology rules, this would put the heaviest track of snow along and just north of I-80. The NAM closes of the 850hPa low, which allows for more significant mid level warming across southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Therefore in these runs ice would be a significantly higher threat with lower snow amounts. The GFS and ECMWF are running a tad colder and remain weaker with the strength of the 850hPa low. This allows for minimal mid level warming with the snow line hovering around the H85 0C line instead of 50mi north of it like the NAM. Given the density of the arctic air mass, I am expecting the NAM to be running a tad too warm. A few recent model runs of the GFS suggest a more dense warm tongue causing sleet in some areas that originally looked like snowfall. The most difficult forecast will be for areas along the Pennsylvania turnpike into central and northern New Jersey up through the New York City metro region. High resolution models including the 4km NMM keep thermals a bit cooler, but they also have a slight cold bias. This cold bias also exists with the latest GGEM and RGEM, which seem to be a bit too cold in this scenario. Also QPF remains in question for this event with the ECMWF running below .5in for all areas while the NAM has the highest totals. The weak dynamics of the shortwave will likely allow QPF totals to lean toward the ECMWF, although I think in the end it will verify too dry.

After the Storm
Latest guidance is suggesting some light QPF over central Pennsylvania up through the Northeast during the Sunday night period. Given cold air damming maintaining the cold sector over the region, it is likely pockets of sub 30F temperatures will exist over much of the region. While QPF looks to be at .2in or less, cloud crystal growth will remain minimal. This will allow for a light freezing rain potential Sunday night. Amounts will remain at advisory levels or lower, but could cause some travel headaches into the night. Given a fresh snow pack over the region, guidance is likely even underestimating 2m temperatures. Later on Monday a strong southwest flow will finally undermine the cold air allowing the warm sector to creep well into the Northeast with temperatures in the 50s as far north as the Mason-Dixon line. Plain rain is likely over main areas later in the day. As I suspected earlier, the torch week that was expected next week does not look likely at this point. Temperatures will only remain slightly above normal. Towards the end of the month global teleconnections are supporting another change in the global regime with a negative AO. Latest ECMWF ensembles continue to show also the development of a west-based negative NAO. While I am not biting yet on this major pattern change, I think it is likely that February will be the most winter-like this season. If a pattern change does occur, the lasting strength of the regime will be critical. Also as I mentioned earlier, we are nearing 90 days for a similar teleconnection pattern. Usually by this many days, the pattern begins to swing. We shall see and I will have more updates later next week.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total- (January)- 5.2in
Seasonal Total- 11.1in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - January 18 - 0.2in of snow
Southwest Flow Event - January 21 - 5.0in of dry snow

Snow Fluff (Blizzard92)
Snow Fluff

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268. Sockets
2:41 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
pouring here in Kittery at 42 degrees. Almost all snow is gone...sigh
Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
267. wxgeek723
2:19 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks for all those snow totals, MM. One thing, I'm alittle suspicious of the 8" snow depth in Greenwich CT. I'm in Stamford, only about 4 miles from Greenwich, and I had only about 5.25". I actually went over to Greenwich on Sat. afternoon, and the snow depth there looked to be just the same as mine. It makes you wonder as to the accuracy of such reports.


*cough* East Nantmeal, PA reporter *cough*
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
266. HeavySnow
2:15 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Still under 40 here in Annandale, VA. Back yard and others still snow and ice covered.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
265. Zachary Labe
2:02 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Thanks for the report! It shot up to 50F up here all day long with all snow completely gone, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
264. Mason803
1:26 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Agreed. I think the majority of them are close to accurate with a few innacurate measurements. I trust the trained spotters and such the most, but you even have to be careful with those sometimes. I trust less public reports, although even some of these are probably correct.



i believe nws should stick with using coop reports and highly trusted spotter reports for final snowfall numbers. it really gets to me when i go out and measure accurately and someone 5 miles has 4" more than me. So i go out and measure around that area and it's within an inch of what i've reported.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
263. Mason803
1:21 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
So how did the snow pack hold up back in the Harrisburg area today? How much freezing rain?


i have two inches still. got around .10" of fzra with a glaze remaining on trees
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
262. MariettaMoon
12:46 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
So how did the snow pack hold up back in the Harrisburg area today? How much freezing rain?


It remained colder in the LSV today compared with other regions holding in the low to mid 30's during daylight hours, so the snowpack held on strong throughout the day but is very waterlogged. I measured 4" here yesterday evening, eyeing up this afternoon I'd say there was around 3". It's probably melting faster now as temp has now shot up to 40F at 7:40pm.

Freezing rain was no problem on blacktop as far as I could tell between Marietta & Millersville even in pre-dawn hours. Mist was definately accumulating as ice on the windshield on the way to work before dawn. A very light glaze was on the coldest metal objects until mid day.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
261. MariettaMoon
12:31 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
New February overall outlook posted on January 19th. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!











Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
260. Zachary Labe
12:28 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
So how did the snow pack hold up back in the Harrisburg area today? How much freezing rain?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
259. MariettaMoon
12:27 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks for all those snow totals, MM. One thing, I'm alittle suspicious of the 8" snow depth in Greenwich CT. I'm in Stamford, only about 4 miles from Greenwich, and I had only about 5.25". I actually went over to Greenwich on Sat. afternoon, and the snow depth there looked to be just the same as mine. It makes you wonder as to the accuracy of such reports.


Agreed. I think the majority of them are close to accurate with a few innacurate measurements. I trust the trained spotters and such the most, but you even have to be careful with those sometimes. I trust less public reports, although even some of these are probably correct.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
258. NEwxguy
7:52 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Models have been all over the place for late this weekend.Seems to be a something coming up,but going to a toss up where the snow/rain line falls.Whether some cold air can be tapped into.Tough winter to zero in on storms this year.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
257. bwi
7:51 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Heavy, LWX had something cryptic in this morning's discussion too, so it's not just one run.

GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN EXTDD FCST AS MODELS DIVERGE ON EVOLLUTION OF
CLOSED UPR LOPRES ACRS SRN PLAINS MIGRATING INTO DEEP SOUTH AND
ITS INTERACTION/PHASING WITH NRN BRANCH SHRTWV TROF FRI INTO
WKEND. SPORADIC ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED STRONG LOPRES DVLPG S OF
MID-ATLC...
THEN PASSING CLOSE OFFSHORE. AS OF NOW...MODELS LOOK WARM
ENUF FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
256. originalLT
6:45 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Just looked at the 12:00 GFS, and it has not picked up on a major storm for us this weekend, but does show some cold air around. Only shows a week low off the Va. coast. Hope it will come in line with the ECMWF. Thanks for the heads-up Heavy.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
255. originalLT
6:36 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Hey Heavy, a coastal or inland cutter? Also will there be enough cold air around to our North to funnel down the Northeast coast?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
254. HeavySnow
6:29 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
A storm this weekend on the Euro. :D
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
253. originalLT
6:21 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Thanks for all those snow totals, MM. One thing, I'm alittle suspicious of the 8" snow depth in Greenwich CT. I'm in Stamford, only about 4 miles from Greenwich, and I had only about 5.25". I actually went over to Greenwich on Sat. afternoon, and the snow depth there looked to be just the same as mine. It makes you wonder as to the accuracy of such reports.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
252. MariettaMoon
4:25 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
01/21 – 01/22 6”+ Storm Total Snowfall

A nice band of 6”-12” fell in areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island & Massachusetts
------------------------------------------------- --------

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
SHELTON 9.5 215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MONROE 9.5 500 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GREENWICH 8.0 404 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
WILTON 7.0 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NEWTOWN 6.9 115 PM 1/21 PUBLIC-775FT
NEW CANAAN 6.5 130 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIDGEFIELD 6.5 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC-600FT
BRIDGEPORT 6.2 700 PM 1/21 COOP OBSERVER
STRATFORD 6.1 500 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NORWALK 6.0 745 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
HADDAM 11.0 330 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
EAST HADDAM 10.5 100 PM 1/21 MEDIA
WESTBROOK 8.0 300 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OLD SAYBROOK 8.0 300 PM 1/21 CT DOT
EAST HAMPTON 8.0 349 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MIDDLETOWN 6.3 319 PM 1/21 MEDIA

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 12.0 200 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CLINTONVILLE 11.9 200 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HAMDEN 9.8 457 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MOMAUGUIN 9.8 355 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SEYMOUR 9.5 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MADISON 9.2 1240 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OXFORD 9.0 330 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MERIDEN 9.0 550 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WOODBRIDGE 9.0 100 PM 1/21 MEDIA
BRANFORD 8.3 155 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WEST HAVEN 8.1 256 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 8.0 300 PM 1/21 CT DOT
MILFORD 7.5 100 PM 1/21 MEDIA
WALLINGFORD 7.4 1215 PM 1/21 MEDIA - WVIT CT
ANSONIA 7.0 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
BEACON FALLS 6.5 300 PM 1/21 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
SALEM 10.5 100 PM 1/21 MEDIA
LISBON 8.9 457 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORWICH 8.0 300 PM 1/21 CT DOT
LEDYARD CENTER 8.0 230 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH STONINGTON 7.4 337 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
GALES FERRY 7.3 341 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GROTON 6.5 300 PM 1/21 CT DOT
COLCHESTER 6.5 300 PM 1/21 CT DOT
------------------------------------------------- --------

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
ORLEANS 12.0 937 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SOUTH DENNIS 10.8 432 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
BOURNE 10.0 707 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
BARNSTABLE 10.0 539 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SAGAMORE 9.8 538 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SANDWICH 9.6 500 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
BUZZARDS BAY 9.5 324 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
HARWICH 9.0 527 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
BREWSTER 8.8 705 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST FALMOUTH 8.3 433 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
WOODS HOLE 7.0 335 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
WELLFLEET 6.5 241 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
WAQUOIT VILLAGE 6.4 300 PM 1/21 COCORAHS
CENTERVILLE 6.4 449 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
FALMOUTH 6.0 1253 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
FAIRHAVEN 12.5 536 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
NEW BEDFORD 12.0 600 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
ACUSHNET 11.0 323 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SOMERSET 10.2 615 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SWANSEA 6.0 425 PM 1/21 NONE

...DUKES COUNTY...
OAK BLUFFS 7.5 437 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
WEST TISBURY 7.0 436 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
MATTAPOISETT 12.0 526 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
ROCHESTER 10.5 654 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SOUTH PLYMOUTH 7.7 305 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
PINEHILLS 7.0 728 PM 1/21 NONE
------------------------------------------------- --------

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
OAKLAND 6.5 1230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
FRANKLIN LAKES 6.0 1236 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MAHWAH 6.0 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
PARAMUS 6.0 1200 PM 1/21 GARDEN STATE PARKWAY

...ORANGE COUNTY...
TUXEDO PARK 6.0 335 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
RINGWOOD 8.0 145 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WEST MILFORD 7.3 420 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
CARMEL 6.0 211 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
TALLMAN 7.0 439 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
THIELLS 6.0 205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
VALLEY COTTAGE 6.0 1205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ORIENT 7.2 700 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SOUTHAMPTON 6.0 906 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SOUTHOLD 6.0 800 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
SPARTA 6.3 1131 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
CHAPPAQUA 7.0 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
THORNWOOD 6.5 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MOUNT KISCO 6.3 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
ARMONK 6.2 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
DOBBS FERRY 6.1 400 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
YONKERS 6.1 410 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
------------------------------------------------- --------

PENNSYLVANIA

...ALLEGHENY COUNTY...
WEXFORD 6.5 653 AM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...BEAVER COUNTY...
HOOKSTOWN 7.0 544 AM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
ALIQUIPPA 7.0 733 AM 1/21 PUBLIC
MONACA 7.0 826 AM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...BLAIR COUNTY...
BELLWOOD 7.4 1030 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
TYRONE 7.0 800 AM 1/21 COOP
ALTOONA 2 6.7 800 AM 1/21 COOP

...CAMBRIA COUNTY...
PRINCE GALLITZIN SP 7.5 800 AM 1/21 COOP

...CARBON COUNTY...
NESQUEHONING 6.0 905 AM 1/21 PUBLIC
LAKE HARMONY 6.0 418 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CENTRE COUNTY...
2 ESE PORT MATILDA 6.1 1000 AM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
SCHNECKSVILLE 6.1 1248 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LUZERNE COUNTY...
NANTICOKE 6.0 136 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...
SUNBURY 6.0 800 AM 1/21 COOP

...SNYDER COUNTY...
SELINSGROVE 6.5 1130 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
------------------------------------------------- --------


RHODE ISLAND

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
WARREN 9.6 815 PM 1/21 NONE

...KENT COUNTY...
WEST WARWICK 8.0 401 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
WARWICK 7.6 700 PM 1/21 T.F. GREEN AIRPORT
COVENTRY 7.0 441 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
WEST GREENWICH 6.5 306 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
PORTSMOUTH 9.2 550 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
LITTLE COMPTON 9.0 735 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
TIVERTON 9.0 517 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
MIDDLETOWN 8.5 433 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
NEWPORT 8.0 447 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
CRANSTON 6.2 346 PM 1/21 GENERAL PUBLIC

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
EXETER 12.0 942 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
NORTH KINGSTOWN 9.3 315 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
NARRAGANSETT 9.0 943 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
SOUTH KINGSTOWN 8.0 508 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
HOPE VALLEY 7.5 400 PM 1/21 COCORAHS
CHARLESTOWN 7.3 715 PM 1/21 HAM RADIO
WESTERLY 6.5 552 PM 1/21 SPOTTER
------------------------------------------------- --------

WEST VIRGINIA

...HANCOCK COUNTY...
NEW CUMBERLAND 6.0 600 AM 1/21 BEGAN AROUND 10 PM.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
251. bwi
4:07 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
We didn't get enough precip last night to affect traction that I could see. I certainly didn't have any trouble this morning. Greenbelt/College Park MD area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
250. HeavySnow
3:59 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Cold air finally being scoured out by warm air aloft mixing down. 33.5 in Annandale, VA, mist.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
249. MariettaMoon
3:53 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
Measured 4" snow depth here at 6pm Sunday, 01/22

28F at 6:30am with light freezing drizzle & fog

30F at 10:30am with light freezing drizzle & fog

Freezing drizzle not a problem on roadways. Light glaze on the coldest metal objects.


37F with light rain at 10:30am @ Arrowhead Lakes, PA at 1700Ft

You can really see the cold air damming backed up against the east slopes of the Appalachins and that warm air moving in over top of the cold air near the surface in lower elevations.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
248. Pcroton
3:23 PM GMT on January 23, 2012
31F, Croton NY
Freezing mist/drizzle/fog.
Coating on untreated surfaces, road signs, windshields.

Warming up...

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12626
247. TheF1Man
2:17 AM GMT on January 23, 2012
Sorry this is so late, but about 3-4 inches here in springfield and about 6 back home in trumbull CT. Down by the shore in bridgeport they got 7+.

"rain/snow" showers in the forecast for thursday-saturday. Blizz should we be looking for something to develop for this time frame?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
246. Zachary Labe
1:55 AM GMT on January 23, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


Thanks for the forecast. I meant at Cornell. I didn't mean to make you work...hhahahahahaha

Lol, you guys must have me trained well. It is actually supposed to shoot up into the 50s here with plain rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
245. HeavySnow
12:32 AM GMT on January 23, 2012
Freezing drizzle and 29 here in Annandale, VA. All surfaces glazed.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
244. TheRasberryPatch
12:00 AM GMT on January 23, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Low level stratus and moisture will begin to develop some light drizzle. Given temperatures well below freezing, it will coat most objects. Any ice accretions will remain below .1in and generally associated with a drizzle, mist, or light rain. As the heavier precipitation moves in tomorrow, temperatures will rise above freezing.


Thanks for the forecast. I meant at Cornell. I didn't mean to make you work...hhahahahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
243. h2oskt
11:59 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Just heard that Joe Paterno passed away this morning. Despite what happened at the end of his tenure, he was a legend at Penn State and college football in general.


Kindly worded thoughts. I just read an article online and the comments were less than endearing, especially for a tremendous man who is no longer with us.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 54
242. Zachary Labe
10:42 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Nothing anywhere close on the radar for this evening.

What kind of weather you expecting, Blizz?

Low level stratus and moisture will begin to develop some light drizzle. Given temperatures well below freezing, it will coat most objects. Any ice accretions will remain below .1in and generally associated with a drizzle, mist, or light rain. As the heavier precipitation moves in tomorrow, temperatures will rise above freezing.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
241. TheRasberryPatch
10:40 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Nothing anywhere close on the radar for this evening.

What kind of weather you expecting, Blizz?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
240. Zachary Labe
10:29 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Only about 2in of snow on the ground up here on campus.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
239. wunderstorm87
8:51 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting shipweather:
Snow flurries in Harrisburg, PA right now.

I have some flurries/light snow coming down now too. It might be some rare bay-effect snow with the south-southeast flow. You can see the moisture coming off the Chesapeake Bay on LWX's radar.


28.5F
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238. shipweather
7:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Snow flurries in Harrisburg, PA right now.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
237. wunderstorm87
5:43 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
I had a low of 9.9F this morning.

It looks like we will have our first major severe weather outbreak of 2012 today across the Mississippi River valley & the Ohio valley. The SPC has a moderate risk with a few strong tornadoes possible.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
236. originalLT
4:15 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Just heard that Joe Paterno passed away this morning. Despite what happened at the end of his tenure, he was a legend at Penn State and college football in general.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
235. MariettaMoon
4:07 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
-1.4f @ arrowhead lakes this morning
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
234. HeavySnow
3:04 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
A nice little light snow shower here in Annandale, VA.
Ground is still covered with crusty icy, crackly, snow. It actualy looks like Winter. Unbelievably, there was a little ice on my local lake in a few shallower, calmer spots.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
233. PhillySnow
2:15 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Hi everyone! I returned from Florida yesterday, just after the snow. It was hard containing disappointment as I waited in the FL airport to be cleared for flying; i.e. the snow had to end before I could come back - no way to be here for the storm. Nonetheless, really sweet to come home to snow on the ground and trees! We got 2.3" here.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1272
232. weathergeek5
1:05 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
This is from my NWS:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMP PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES THAT EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A HALFWAY DECENT HUDSON BAY
LOW ALOFT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ADJUST THE
PATTERN TO SOMETHING MORE TRADITIONAL FOR LA-NINA.

IN OTHER WORDS EVENTUALLY COLDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
USA AS A POSITIVE PNA ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND. THE AO
IS SEEMINGLY ADJUSTING MORE NEGATIVE THESE DAYS AND CONTG THAT
THEME INTO THE FUTURE. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BODING BETTER
NEWS FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVOCATES IN OUR AREA.


SNOW DEPTH...NICE TO SEE THAT WE`RE AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL NOW ON
SNOW DEPTH FOR OUR AREA ..THATS NOT WINTER SNOWFALL...JUST TODAYS
DATE.. EVEN IF ITS ONLY TEMPORARY.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ENOUGH INFLOW TO PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERY RAINS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY MON NIGHT...W STRONG SUPPORT FROM 21Z/21 SREF
AND 18Z/21 GEFS. CATEGORICAL POPS. VERY MILD! TEMPS 10 TO 15F ABOVE
NORMAL. MELTS ALOT OF THE SNOW THAT FELL YDY. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
SNOWMELT AND RAIN COMBINED TO CONSIDER AN FFA.

DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER THE MELTING SNOW FROM VCNTY
KABE TO KMPO AND K12N NORTH. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED 1 MILE FOG.

CONFIDENCE WELL BELOW AVG IN TEMPS FROM KRDG-KABE-KSMQ NORTH.
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WIND COULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING PAST
THE UPPER 30S. CONFIDENCE POOR...DESPITE THE ECMWF OFFERING 40S.


TUESDAY...A VERY VERY PLEASANT JANUARY 24TH...TEMPS AGAIN 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL...DRY...A BIT BREEZY WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY.
CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMP...MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. AGAIN
AT LEAST 10 TO 15 ABOVE NORMAL! ..

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY IN STRONG
W-E FLOW ACROSS THE NRN USA...BUT MODEL SPREAD ON TIMING IS LARGE!
STILL LOOKS NICE FOR JAN 25...TEMPS 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL...A BIT
COOLER THAN TUESDAY BECAUSE OF COOLER 925MB TEMPS AND PROBABLY DRY
WITH AGAIN DECENT SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GETS A BIT INTERESTING HERE. EVEN THO CALENDAR
DAY TEMPS AVG 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...WE`RE STILL IN OUR COLDEST
DAILY NORMS FOR THE WINTER. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT A STRONG
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WITH A CFP AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE ON THE
FRONT. LOW PROB THAT THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR ICE AT
THE START OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FA.


NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH EVEN GREATER SPREAD ON
TIMING AND THE RESULTANT WEATHER IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD BE
DRY FOR AT LEAST HALF THE WEEKEND AND IT MAY EVENTUALLY TURN
BLUSTERY AND COLDER. AGAIN... ANY DETAILS ON NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
CONFIDENCE.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
231. PalmyraPunishment
12:55 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Williamsport is in a weird spot and often-times becomes the "snow hole" of PA as they're often times a little far north and west for the nor'easters, too far east for lake effect snows, and usually get the same shaft most of us do when New York is usually the rain/snow line. Doesn't shock me that 4" for a singular storm would be a record.

Freezing Rain advisory 2 days after our first WWA of the year. Holy crap, maybe things are changing lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
230. TheRasberryPatch
12:44 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Have a safe trip Blizz.

Did anyone see this day in weather history? That is a WOW. It's about the Chinook winds. I bet that would make weather forecasting a bit difficult. That is almost scary.

I am surprised that Williamsport tied a record for snowfall for yesterday. 4" doesn't seem like much.

Also, yesterday the winds that ripped through the mountains at La Quinta. That is scary also. How do you forecast them. Apparently, the PGA wasn't expecting them to be that strong.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
229. shipweather
11:49 AM GMT on January 22, 2012
Freezing Rain Advisory for most of PA including the Lower Susquehanna Valley. That's interesting. Don't see that often.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
228. listenerVT
4:56 AM GMT on January 22, 2012
Thanks for everything, Blizz!

Happy transitioning back to school. May this be a fabulous semester for you.

Got there and back again safely. We got 3" of new snow in Kennebunk, and found just a dusting here at home. In between, the higher elevations of Vermont tonight were -6F. Traveling was fine, though. We took it slow just incase.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
227. Zachary Labe
2:22 AM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Good luck back at school Blizz. Saw your course "Ethics of medicine". Do you have an interest in medicine? As a nurse in a critical care unit, you can imagine the ethical dillemas I encountered every day. Notice the past tense. No longer in critical care. I now work in public health.

Again, best of luck and have a good trip back.

I have a side interest in medicine, nutrition, and general personal health. I thought it would be something a bit different, but still more orientated as scientific writings.

Quoting h2oskt:
Good luck with the semester! I had a minor in philosophy and loved all the ethics offerings in earning that minor. I hope the class perks your interest in philosophy.

Meanwhile, any thoughts on the potential storm at the end of this next week?

Thanks! I am looking forward to the class! I will be honest... I really haven't looked at the storm at the end of the week. I have just been getting ready packing.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
226. h2oskt
1:48 AM GMT on January 22, 2012
Good luck with the semester! I had a minor in philosophy and loved all the ethics offerings in earning that minor. I hope the class perks your interest in philosophy.

Meanwhile, any thoughts on the potential storm at the end of this next week?
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 54
225. shipweather
1:26 AM GMT on January 22, 2012
What a busy day at work. Spent the first 4 hours in the snow. Fun stuff. Roads were a mess very early this morning. Fun storm. Hope we get a few more.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
224. pittsburghnurse
11:47 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
Good luck back at school Blizz. Saw your course "Ethics of medicine". Do you have an interest in medicine? As a nurse in a critical care unit, you can imagine the ethical dillemas I encountered every day. Notice the past tense. No longer in critical care. I now work in public health.

Again, best of luck and have a good trip back.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
223. WestchesterNY
10:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
Pcroton - Same here about 10 miles to your south in Tarrytown. Looked like 3 inches or so early morning but we got quite a burst from 10 to about noon. Probably 5-6 total. I am also up the hill (about 400 feet) from the river but the middle of town didn't look much different when I went out.

Blizz - As usual, very good job.
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222. NEPASteve
9:32 PM GMT on January 21, 2012

Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
221. originalLT
9:06 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
Goodluck back at "school"! Safe trip. Sounds like a busy semester.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
220. Zachary Labe
8:38 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Sounds like fun MM. Big Boulder is a nice little ski slope.

Thanks for the forecast and good luck this semester, Blizz. What are your courses?

Calculus 2
Meteorology Software and Computer Programming
Weather and Forecasting Lab
Forecast Competition
Freshman Writing Seminar: Science and Technology; Ethics of Medicine
Nature and Climate Natural Resources
Sociology
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
219. TheRasberryPatch
8:35 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
Sounds like fun MM. Big Boulder is a nice little ski slope.

Thanks for the forecast and good luck this semester, Blizz. What are your courses?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
218. goofyrider
8:11 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
49.6N, 11.8E EL 1300FT

Snow rain snow now back to rain.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2940

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