Widespread light snow for Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 6:35 PM GMT on January 18, 2012

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Light snow is likely associated along the cold front with an area of warm air advection. Amounts will remain light and around 1-3in for most areas. A strong storm system will approach the region towards the weekend with widespread wintry weather. I will post a new blog for this next event on Friday. For now this blog will focus primarily on the nuisance snows Thursday night.

Current Surface Plot...

(Courtesy of HPC)

January 19 Clipper/Occluded Front Timeline and Discussion...
12pm-2pm Thursday: A reinforcing shot of cold air behind a cold front will begin to move across western New York and western Pennsylvania. Warm air advection ahead of the cold front will add a bit of additional lift ahead of the front with widespread light snows from the mountains of Maryland up through western New York in this period. Dry air will inhibit moisture aloft preventing snow rates reaching much higher than .5in/hr. Orographic lift across the higher elevations in western areas will assist in light snow totals of 1-3in.

2pm-4pm Thursday: The fast movement of the cold front and weak shortwave over northern New York will keep snows rapidly advancing east. Light snows will move into central New York and central Pennsylvania. Downsloping east of the higher elevations will begin to weaken snows across Pennsylvania south into Maryland. Light snows will only last at one location for no more than 2-4hrs with visibilities primarily ranging from 1-3mi. Given the northern track of the shortwave, it is not a favorable track for most areas for the heaviest snow swath. Warm air advection will continue to along for a minor area of frontogenesis-enhanced light snow before coming to an end from west to east. Snows will already begin to be moving out of extreme western areas.

4pm- 7pm Thursday: The stratiform light snow shield will begin to move into southern New England and into eastern New York and Pennsylvania. The precipitation shield will begin to deteriorate across eastern Pennsylvania courtesy of downsloping and minimal lift given the large displacement from the shortwave. Snow amounts for most areas will be in the 1-3in range through this period and again will only last for 2-4 hours at any one location. Snow will already be out of areas such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

7pm- 10pm Thursday: As the shortwave progresses east along the cold front, a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic will add a bit of additional moisture across eastern New England. Light snow will begin to break out ahead of the main WAA snow shield, but accumulations will be minimal and limited to a coating. The main WAA snows will be progressing across central New England down through New York City. The steadiest snows will be limited north of the New York City metro region limiting accumulations in this region.

10pm- 2am Friday: Light snow will continue to move into eastern New England and begin to push off into the Atlantic coast. The shortwave will begin to amplify as it moves east; a weak southeasterly flow will also exist. These factors will aid in a narrow band of snow along the area of highest frontogenic forcing. Snow totals will be enhanced in this region ranging from 2-5in. This advisory criteria snow will be limited to far eastern New England. By 3am or so, most all snow will be pushed off the coast.

Quick Discussion: Temperatures at the surface will remain below freezing for all areas and will not be a major concern. A bit of light rain/snow is possible for Long Island, but all other areas will be pure snow. H85s around -8C and warm air advection aloft will add to snow ratios at nearly 15:1 or 20:1 with a widespread light and fluffy snow. Most amounts will be light and nuisance, but given impacts around evening rush, there may be some travel impacts. Also the lack of snow this year makes this appear to be a bigger event than normal for this winter. Behind the cold front, a northwest flow will allow for a bit of lake effect snow, but increased shear levels aloft will limit organization. Any additional accumulations will be below 4in for the general snow belt regions. Another storm system will approach the region by Saturday morning with precipitation breaking out across the northeast before dawn on Saturday.

Regional Radar...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Widespread light snow from the Mason-Dixon line on northward.
2. Light snow accumulations for many areas that have not seen much snow this winter.
3. Higher snow amounts in eastern New England due to some eastern enhancement.
4. Snow ratios nearly 20:1 for many areas.
5. Amounts generally at nuisance levels of 1-3in.

Snow Maps...


***Areas not included in the 1-4in snow range may see spotty coating to one inch snow amounts especially just southeast of the 1-4in vs. 0in border

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Dusting of snow
Baltimore, MD- Dusting of snow
Salisbury, MD- A few flurries; no accumulation
Pittsburgh, PA- Light snow; 1-3in
State College PA- Light snow; 1-3in
Williamsport, PA- Light snow; 1-3in
Altoona, PA- Light snow; 1-3in
Harrisburg, PA- Light snow; C-1in
Lancaster, PA- Light snow; C-1in
Philadelphia, PA- Light snow; dusting
Allentown, PA- Light snow; C-1in
Scranton, PA- Light snow; 1-3in
Washington, DC- Flurries; 0in-dusting
Wilmington, DE- Light snow showers; dusting
Dover, DE- Light snow showers; dusting
Trenton, NJ- Light snow; C-1in
New York City, NY- Light snow; 1-3in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Light snow; 1-3in
Binghamton, NY- LIght snow; 1-3in
Ithaca, NY- Light snow; 1-3in
Albany, NY- Light snow; 1-3in
Hartford, CT- Light snow; 1-4in
Concord, NH- Light snow; 2-4in
Providence, RI- Light snow; 2-5in
Worcester, MA- Light snow; 2-4in
Boston, MA- Light snow; 2-4in
Nantucket, MA- Light snow; 1-4in
Hyannis, MA- Light snow; 2-5in
Burlington, VT- Light snow; 1-3in
Portland, ME- Light snow; 2-5in
Bangor, ME- Light snow; 2-5in
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
General model guidance differences exist in QPF totals across most areas. NAM and ECMWF tend to be a bit drier especially for southern areas along and east of the Appalachians. NAM indicates QPF less than .01in across southern and eastern portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile the GFS shows a more widespread area of snow showers with QPF totals about 0.05-0.1in higher. Given the increase in warm air advection ahead of the cold front, it is likely the higher QPF totals from the GFS will verify. Latest high resolution guidance including the 4km NMM indicates a bit of enhancement across eastern areas in New England particularly towards eastern Massachusetts up through Maine. This enhancement is also signaled by global guidance. The enhanced area of QPF is associated with a digging shortwave as the low begins to strengthen as it moves east over the Atlantic. Snow rates will generally stay below 0.5in/hr for most all areas as visibilities will range from 1-3mi. This will keep conditions at IFR or MVFR at aviation fields. Timing differences in the models are very minimal, at general consensus for my forecast is about 60/30/10 for GFS/ECMWF/NAM, etc.

After the Storm
A weak shortwave in the western United States will translate eastward by the weekend spreading a shield of precipitation courtesy of strong WAA into the Middle Atlantic and New England regions. This southwest flow event (SWFE) is very consistent in La Nina-like patterns. A 1024mb high pressure to the north will stay wedged across the region in southern Quebec, but will begin to slowly lift away to the northeast. This anticyclone will allow for a wedge of cold air to remain lodged in across the Northeast south towards the Mason-Dixon line for areas along and east of the Appalachian mountains. Overrunning precipitation along a thermal boundary will allow QPF totals from .25in-.6in. Weak dynamics and some dry air advecting south out of Canada will limit higher QPF totals. Given the close proximity of the thermal gradient and the enhanced area of warm air advection, precipitation type will likely be a major concern for this storm system. It remains too early to begin to note precipitation transition lines, but given past history with SWFE's, it is likely the cold air at the surface will be underestimated by models, while mid level warmth is also underestimated. Therefore many areas that are just about the 0C H85 line will see sleet due to a warm tongue. Also models typically underestimate the extent of the QPF shield, so therefore a bit of snow is likely for many areas before the warmth advects into the region. Freezing rain will be a big concern, but will depend will the thermal gradient sets up. Dry air across northern New England will likely inhibit most precipitation in this region and therefore most of the QPF will stay south of southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. It should be noted the NAM is farther north than most guidance, but for now it remains an outlier.

As I mentioned the other day, I am not on the heat wave bus anymore for next week. I would expect cool air to hang around for a few days with chances of wintry precipitation. There will be a 1-2 very warm period ahead of a Great Lakes cutter, but that does not likely until the end of the week or so.

Snow Map Storm 2...


***This is a rough estimate of precipitation types for the Saturday event. The precipitation types were determined by the type of precipitation during the height of the event for each individual locations. It is likely many southern areas start as snow and changing to freezing rain and then perhaps plain rain. But I chose to indicate types based on the height of the event. Snow accumulations are possible even in some parts of the freezing rain area.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total- (January)- 0.2in
Seasonal Total- 6.1in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - January 18 - 0.2in of snow

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138. CapeCoralStorm
4:48 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Any chance New Castle DE gets in on the snow action tonight?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
137. bwi
4:26 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
I'm hoping the 2nd round of precip holds off until later on Sunday, since I made plans for a bike ride that afternoon, back when the forecast was for 55F and sunny!

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
136. originalLT
3:40 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Just a dusting here in Stamford CT. By this morning everything was gone. It's gotten alot colder overnight, hopefully this cold air will be thick enough to keep everything snow by me tonight and Sat. Temp. right now is 27F, wind NW at 10-20mph. Baro. at 30.16R and sunny.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
135. PalmyraPunishment
3:38 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
*banging on rally drums*
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
134. shipweather
3:37 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
NWS still doesn't seem to think more tha 3-5". Hoping Blizz has an update for us soon.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
133. Mason803
3:34 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
temps running colder than forecast.

KJST 10am ob temp was 7F

Forecast calls for high in the mid 20's

here in Cashtown I'm at 20F
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
132. Sockets
3:16 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
got between 2-3 inches from that clipper last night. Wunderground is currently calling 1-3 for my area but I'm still hoping this thing edges north a bit to put me in the heavier accumulations for sat. Thanks for the updates Blizz.
Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
131. pittsburghnurse
2:59 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Lovely powder this morning with bright sunshine and 11 degrees. Happen to be on a porch-view vacation this week. Great morning to go out and play in the snow with my aussie pup now all of 7 months old.

Not liking what's coming. Going to the store to stock up. WSW for ice. Anything but ice.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
130. anduril
2:48 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Go to bed expect 3in and wake up to WWA for 3-5 with ice as well. Kickass. Hopefully it keeps upping and actually delivers ;)
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
129. TheRasberryPatch
2:35 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Blizz - with temps near 20F at the surface might we still see warm air aloft to give us sleet and freezing rain?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
128. PattyNorthShoreLI
2:17 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
I have seen storms like this play out before... I foresee winds shifting and the ocean warming up Long Island, Jersey Shore, and Southern Connecticut, 1 inch before the changeover. What are the prospects of such a scenario as opposed to the 3-6 inches I am now hearing for the area?
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
127. TheRasberryPatch
1:33 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
That was a dry up of a clipper. Usually clippers hold together over the mountains and give us at least a dusting. Weird.

So your snow map panned out for the clipper. I would guess you need to change your map for Saturday
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
126. weatherman321
12:58 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Winter Storm Warning issued here in Westmorland County, PA for expected total of .25inch of ice and 1-4inches of snow.... From the clipper totals ranged from official 2.3inches in downtown Pittsburgh to 4inches in Southerner Butler County..
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
125. GTOSnow
12:05 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
Well I know the clipper was a bust for most of you, but up this way it delivered fairly well. I measured 2.5" at my house in Sutton and there is at least 4" at my work in Smithfield RI!

Still waiting to see how we make out this weekend. I have to drive up to Bedford, NH first thing tomorrow morning, so it looks like I'll be driving out of the heaviest snow, but then back into it when I come home.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
124. shipweather
11:59 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Good morning Blizz! Thanks for the update. Things sound good. That's exciting.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
123. Zachary Labe
11:44 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Wow that was one of the quickest dry ups I have seen for a clipper. Oh well most all areas got the accumulation expected. Low tonight is looking pretty good for snow lovers along and north of the Mason-Dixon. Between I-80 and I-76 looks to be the heaviest accumulations of 4-8in. Some higher QPF is being indicated on latest progs so there may be a few more 6in amounts than expected. Stay tuned today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
122. Matlack
10:41 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Clipper smipper, that thing dried up like a worm on a sidewalk on a sunny day! Clear and 34 degrees the cars are even dry, nothing nada kaput. And yet they have a WWW up for this evening into tomorrow. At least all the salt and sand they spread last night might be useful tonight. At least they are consistent with the snow to rain scenario here at the shore.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
121. shipweather
9:39 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Winter Weather Advisory. 3-5 occording to the NWS for Harrisburg, PA and KMDT.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
120. anduril
6:45 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Well this little clipper was quite a bust. No flurries that I saw at any point other than the ash off my smokes and nothing measurable thats for sure. Hopefully Sat early morning into afternoon bares out better!

EDIT: for wordage
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
119. testbenchdude
5:26 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Very light flurries in West Chester, PA. I'm quite happy as it looked like we wouldn't get anything out of this at all as the day wore on. I'll take what I can get at this point. :)
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 221
118. MariettaMoon
4:04 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
00z NAM looks a lot like the 18z GFS
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
117. MariettaMoon
4:03 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
The simulated radar seems to have the LSV with a bit more snow than expected. My kids will love that.

How do you feel about your snow maps, Blizz?

MM - I know I don't mind seeing and reading your forecast as well as your stats for other regions. It's nice to get the information and if you are different from Blizz on forecast and prove him wrong it gives us amateurs something to needle Blizz. hahahahahaha. Right Blizz?


That was my plan all along! I'm gonna knock him off and take over hahahahahaha!

Yeah, I'm sure followers would leave in droves lol
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
116. MariettaMoon
3:59 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Maybe I am not the jinx for snow in the LSV, maybe it is you, lol!


If it's me, we've got 2 more seasons of getting jipped!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
115. Zachary Labe
3:53 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting anduril:
So ya think the valley could pull out 6ins on Sat blizz? That seems to be the level that my work can close and I wouldn't mind some extra time to play Skyrim (ahem) since its the only other snow I've seen this season 0_o lol

Lol, probably not. My early thoughts are 3-6in, but probably mostly totals around 4 or 5in. I am not sure if there is enough QPF to pull off 6; maybe.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
114. anduril
3:50 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
So ya think the valley could pull out 6ins on Sat blizz? That seems to be the level that my work can close and I wouldn't mind some extra time to play Skyrim (ahem) since its the only other snow I've seen this season 0_o lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
113. weatherman321
3:47 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting pittsburghnurse:


I am not amused :(


... leave it to us southwestern Pennsylvanians to get left out of this one ...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
112. Zachary Labe
3:25 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
I'll try to get the new blog and snow map out by early afternoon tomorrow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
111. pittsburghnurse
2:48 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
0z NAM is much more in line with other guidance and is big success for snow lovers in most all of Pennsylvania excluding southwestern areas...!


I am not amused :(
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
110. Zachary Labe
2:30 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Awsome. I'm excited because I'll be up the Poconos where Mount Holly has been consistent today in calling for 7" there. If we get 7" there Saturday, that would bring my "witnessed" season total to 19" (12" there in October). Not too shabby all things considered! I've picked the right weekends to head up there.

I still have never seen even a dusting of snow in Marietta.

Maybe I am not the jinx for snow in the LSV, maybe it is you, lol!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
109. MariettaMoon
2:26 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
0z NAM is much more in line with other guidance and is big success for snow lovers in most all of Pennsylvania excluding southwestern areas...!


Awsome. I'm excited because I'll be up the Poconos where Mount Holly has been consistent today in calling for 7" there. If we get 7" there Saturday, that would bring my "witnessed" season total to 19" (12" there in October). Not too shabby all things considered! I've picked the right weekends to head up there.

I still have never seen even a dusting of snow in Marietta.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
108. MariettaMoon
2:19 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:


Hi Blizz how are things.

I tend to feel that 1-3" is light, 4-6" is moderate, and 6"+ is heavy accumulation.

Over the years I have noted that I have fallen in these exact categories when they expect light, moderate, or heavy accumulations.

Personally I think it is a regional thing such as wind chill advisories are tailored for each region.

Perhaps further inland you would raise these totals to reflect the light, moderate, heavy criteria, which would be in line with what you perceive them to be.

It would make perfect sense.





I have read that NWS Mount Holly criteria is...
Heavy: 8" or more
Moderate: 4"-7"
Light: 1"-3"

It can vary slightly depending on region
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
107. Zachary Labe
2:17 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
0z NAM is much more in line with other guidance and is big success for snow lovers in most all of Pennsylvania excluding southwestern areas...!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
106. listenerVT
2:14 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Oh! I didn't realize that, lol! I actually just talked with him tonight at the CD wrestling match.


:-) I keep picturing tiny little music disks battling it out.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
105. listenerVT
2:12 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Thank-you, Blizz (36.).

It started snowing here just before 8pm.
VERY light precip.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
104. LivelySnow
2:12 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Oh! I didn't realize that, lol! I actually just talked with him tonight at the CD wrestling match.


That's funny! Hoping that Saturday pans out!!!!
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
103. MariettaMoon
2:12 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting shipweather:
really want some model consistency. I'm on pins and needles.


Models have been very consistent with this when compared to usual. All except for the NAM, which has settled down closer to the others in recent runs.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
102. MariettaMoon
2:09 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

18z NAM is warm again, it really has been a consistent warm outlier, hmmmm. But I really would like to see the 0z GFS. If that does not go much warmer, then we can pull the snow trigger.


Looks like 1-2in of snow tonight followed by possibly 2-4in of snow/sleet on Saturday.


I haven't trusted the NAM at all yet, although it has been bringing 5" to the Poconos over the last few runs. GFS has had the best grip on this since its first hit and has been pretty consistent. All others caught on well before the NAM.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
101. Zachary Labe
2:06 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting thecanonical:
Thanks very much, Blizz. Btw, if it's not prying too much, how did you find the calculus in the end at Cornell? Even if I do say so myself as a math professor, calculus is a breeze compared to forecasting the details of winter storms!

Eh, it went okay. It was my worst grade. I understand all of the concepts of Calculus, but at times I cannot apply them.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
100. Matlack
1:56 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Good evening all!!! Clipper looks horrible, but my snow map should verify pretty spot on for this evening's event.

Based on the map The State of NJ just wasted money and salt. Had some of those Atlantic effect snow flurries this afternoon while we were out testing Solar arrays. Pretty cool to have ocean effect snows.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
99. Zachary Labe
1:53 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Good evening all!!! Clipper looks horrible, but my snow map should verify pretty spot on for this evening's event.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
98. Zachary Labe
1:52 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting LivelySnow:

Blizz!!! That's Mr. Smith....a teacher at CD!!!! :) ...thought you would know that...LOL!!!! I'm on his "weather weenie" list, so I get it all the time! teehee!

Oh! I didn't realize that, lol! I actually just talked with him tonight at the CD wrestling match.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
97. Matlack
1:45 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
They are totally flipping out here in NJ at the Shore. It is not even heavily overcast and there are salt trucks out putting down a layer of salt so thick it is making the roads slick. Really for a a dusting at best!!! Oh and it is 38 degrees. Yet last year I couldn't buy a plow for 3 days after a storm. Gotta love knee jerk reactions. Have a great night all and I wish you feet of snow tomorrow night!
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
96. Pcroton
1:44 AM GMT on January 20, 2012


Hi Blizz how are things.

I tend to feel that 1-3" is light, 4-6" is moderate, and 6"+ is heavy accumulation.

Over the years I have noted that I have fallen in these exact categories when they expect light, moderate, or heavy accumulations.

Personally I think it is a regional thing such as wind chill advisories are tailored for each region.

Perhaps further inland you would raise these totals to reflect the light, moderate, heavy criteria, which would be in line with what you perceive them to be.

It would make perfect sense.



Quoting Blizzard92:



This is my usual breakdown, but everyone has their own opinion...

light accumulations: 1-4in
moderate accumulations: 4-8in
heavy accumulations: 8in+
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 71 Comments: 12504
95. Pcroton
1:40 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Evening all. Got a solid coating right now. Light snow 26F.

GFS and NAM seem to be hinting at a 4-5 inch event Friday night into Saturday and the forecast is reflecting that with "moderate snowfall accumulation expected" of which is 3-6" criteria in this region.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 71 Comments: 12504
94. LivelySnow
1:26 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting LivelySnow:
Radar looks yummy!!! :) Pathetic how excited I (we) am (are) at a 1-2" event!!!!


....and there it goes....shattered!
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
93. wunderstorm87
12:54 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
There are a few flurries starting to come down now which is nothing compared to the moderate snow the radar has over us. 31.8F
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
92. shipweather
12:52 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
HAHA I thought the same thing.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
91. LivelySnow
12:52 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


Is he any accurate? I noticed his model of choice was the Canadian, which is usually what you hear when weenies are reaching...

(Not like Blizz!) :) But he always has good information, doesn't stick to one model and is passionate about weather (esp. snow...just like most of us here)!!!! I always appreciate getting many different perspectives!
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
90. PalmyraPunishment
12:46 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting LivelySnow:

Blizz!!! That's Mr. Smith....a teacher at CD!!!! :) ...thought you would know that...LOL!!!! I'm on his "weather weenie" list, so I get it all the time! teehee!


Is he any accurate? I noticed his model of choice was the Canadian, which is usually what you hear when weenies are reaching...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
89. LivelySnow
12:46 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Radar looks yummy!!! :) Pathetic how excited I (we) am (are) at a 1-2" event!!!!
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
88. LivelySnow
12:41 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Is winter uncancelled? Margusity is predicting a "wild February". Maybe a Groundhog day storm?

Snow has stopped for now. Less than an inch on the ground.


He better not be getting out the"Big Daddy" hat yet!!!! LOL!!
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

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