Heavy Snow Squalls for Northeast Post Storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:23 PM GMT on January 11, 2012

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A double low system will move through the Northeast generally with heavy rain for most areas along with some wintry precipitation for northern New England. Behind the low complex, arctic air will move across the region in correspondence with a very impressive jet streak. This vortex will enhance an area of snow squalls, which will affect many areas with advisory or sub advisory snows. Flash freezes are likely for many areas on Friday along with an increasing lake effect snow cyclonic flow. Winter will be in full force on Friday and Saturday. Winds will also increase to advisory criteria.

Current Surface Plot...

(Courtesy of HPC)

Thoughts on January 11-14 Storm System and Lake Effect Snow...
2-5pm Wednesday: Strong WAA and a southerly jet will continue to allow temperatures to rise over the region in correspondence with the max diurnal heating of the day. 1pm surface observations indicate temperatures above freezing for all locations across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Also temperatures across New England are above freezing given clear skies on the visible satellite. Dew points are beginning to rise across southern areas as the southerly jet increases moisture and milder temperatures. A departing 1024mb anticyclone over New England will allow a CAD situation to unfold for northerly locations across New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maine. By 5pm rain will be spreading across Pennsylvania and New Jersey with rates around .1in/hr in some areas. Cirrus will begin to thicken over New England by evening preventing temperatures from falling due to radiational cooling. Therefore temperatures will range from 34-38F across the areas north of the Massachusetts Pike into Vermont and New Hampshire. Dew points will remain in the 20s.

5-10pm Wednesday: Stratiform rain will continue to spread over the entire Northeast edging into southern New England. Rates will range from .1in/hr to .2in/hr especially towards New Jersey. As rain moves into areas north of the MA pike, evaporational cooling will allow for a quick drop in H85 thermals below 0C. But WAA will prevail under a strengthening LLJ. Any snow will not last as guidance indicates a mid level warm layer around 925mb. Snow accumulations will generally be under 1in as far north as southern Vermont and New Hampshire. As the warm tongue positions across southern New England, sleet will increase in some areas from Worcester on northward. Sleet amounts will also remain below 1in. 2m temperatures will fall from the mid to upper 30s into the lower 30s. Rain will fall heavy by 10pm over parts of Maryland and Washington DC with QPF totals up to .75in up to this point.

10pm-12am Wednesday- As WAA continues to increase thermal heights over southern New England, any sleet will change to freezing rain. This will be prevalent across parts of the Adirondacks through the Green and White Mountains. Freezing rain will also occur across the Berkshires and as far south as the hills near Worcester. But 2m temperatures will rise from the low 30s into the upper 30s slowly. Any freezing rain amounts will be less than .1in. Rain will begin to end across southern areas by early morning Thursday with QPF totals around 1in near Washington DC.

12am-4am Thursday: The double barrel low will begin to move up through Pennsylvania and New York state with H85s increasing to near +5C over southern Pennsylvania. Rain will be ending as far north as the Mason-Dixon line. An increasing southerly flow will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 40s into the I-95 corridor from Connecticut on southward. The anticyclone to the northeast will begin to weaken and depart allowing the confluence flow to wane. Heavy snow will begin to fall across northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire will amounts around 4-6in. 925mb temperatures will rise to near +1C to the Canadian border changing any snow to sleet and freezing rain. The surface lows will be rapidly advancing into Canada quickly shutting off precipitation as far north as the tristate region.

4am-8am Thursday: This period will feature any wintry precipitation changing to light rain and drizzle over southern New England. Total QPF in this region will be around 1-1.25 inches. Heavy snow will be falling across northern Maine. Amounts will exceed warning criteria in this small area. Meanwhile an arctic front will begin to move into the eastern Great Lakes. Clouds and warmer air across the entire Northeast will only provide areas of drizzle and low level fog. Temperatures will rise into the lower 50s across the I-95 corridor. Any ice or snow that accumulated along and south of the MA pike will quickly melt even across Pennsylvania and New York State in the higher elevations.

8am-2pm Thursday: The arctic front and associated ULL over Ohio will quickly advance towards western Pennsylvania at the end of this period. A bit of sunshine may occur in the dirty warm sector especially for southern and eastern areas. H85s will drop below 0C once again into western New York and western Pennsylvania. Generally cloudy with occasional drizzle and mild temperatures will be ongoing across the entire Northeast. Any snow or sleet over northern Maine will begin to come to an end.

2pm-8pm Thursday: A 992mb low over Michigan will slowly advance east associated with a strong pool of cold air associated with a series of vortices spinning into Pennsylvania. The arctic front will slowly progress over western Pennsylvania, western New York State, and western Maryland. An increasing pressure gradient will allow winds to increase behind the front along with a developing area of QPF as lapse rates increase in correspondence with a vigorous piece of energy. The atmospheric column will begin to cool over western areas rapidly changing rain to heavy snow with strong winds.

8pm-12am Thursday: A blossoming area of QPF over western and central Pennsylvania will be associated with a high-impact snow event. Total QPF will be around .25-.6in. This will be associated with a period of heavy snow from western Maryland north into western New York State. 1000-500mb thicknesses will drop sub 530dm with rapidly increasing snow rates. The strong northwest flow will along wind sustained to increase near 20-30mph with gusts up to 55mph. This will be wind advisory criteria. Temperatures will rapidly fall sub 30F. Snow ratios will increase to 20:1 in addition with increased orographic lift combined with lake enhancement. This will be a 2-4hr period of heavy snow with amounts around 3-6in along and west of the Alleghany Front.

12am-6am Friday: This band of QPF will shift northeastward as a 988mb surface low moves into central New York State. As the post frontal precipitation moves eastward, it will extend ahead of the 0C H85 line. This will allow precipitation to initially be rain, but rapidly change to snow. Flash freezes are likely all the way to the coast. High temperatures will be reached in the morning hours and fall into the 20s throughout the day for all areas. The best dynamics will shift into New York State and western New England. Squalls will begin to weaken as they head east of the Alleghany Front. Snow accumulations will begin to focus across central New York. Spotty 1-2in amounts are likely from Washington DC to White Plains, NY but generally most areas will be at a coating or less. Snow accumulations of 3-7in are possible into western New England especially along and west of the favored upslope regions in the Berkshires and on northward. Advisories will likely be issued for a widespread area given flash freeze, falling temperatures, high winds, and temporary heavy snow. Short periods of blizzard conditions are possible into north central Pennsylvania and central New York State.

6am-12pm Friday: The arctic front will push towards I-95 and the Atlantic coast with brief rain changing to snow showers as the column cools. Little to no accumulation is likely. Winds will be easily advisory criteria across the entire Northeast viewing area. Temperatures will continue to fall and the deformation axis of snow will be waning and moving through northern New England. A west-northwest flow will prevail as temperatures drop below H85s drop below -10C. The lake effect snow machine will begin to kick in across the typical snow belts associated with a 300 degree flow. The initial flow will be westerly with bands setting up near Buffalo and Watertown. The Ontario band will shift south into Oswego county, New York.

12pm-8pm: The lake effect snow machine will rapidly increase in this time period as the flow shifts to the northwest. Bands will be organized in a multi-band setup with only moderate accumulation. This flow will aid the upslope favored regions from western Maryland through the Laurel Highlands in Pennsylvania. Heavy upslope snows will begin across the Berkshires into the Greens.

8pm-Saturday morning: The northwest flow will begin to relax as the pressure gradient weakens and winds begin to drop below advisory criteria. Upslope snows will be ongoing in this period with total accumulations of 12in+ for northern Vermont particularly towards Mt. Mansfield and Stowe. Amounts of 6-12in will be more likely across the upslope regions in the White Mountains and Berkshires. 6-12in amounts are also likely over western Maryland into the Laurel Highlands through the snow belt regions of northern Pennsylvania. New York State accumulations will generally be a widespread 1-4in with localized 6-12in amounts for the favored banding locations across the eastern finger lakes towards Cortland county.

By Saturday afternoon, high pressure and increasing heights will begin to end the lake effect snow machine.

Regional Radar...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Heavy stratiform rain with total amounts ranging from 1-1.5in. Recent dryness will likely prevent any flooding.
2. Freezing rain and sleet is likely for parts of northern New England affecting travel through Thursday late morning.
3. Heavy snow squalls likely across the entire Northeast Thursday night into Friday with light accumulations.
4. Winds will increase to 20-30mph sustained with gusts to 55mph; advisory criteria.
5. Flash freezes likely all the way to the coast with rapidly falling temperatures Friday. Widespread travel impacts.

Snow Maps...




***The final snow map for the entire Northeast includes total accumulations for the entire event including the synoptic storm, ULL, and lake effect. This does not indicate total snow depth as snow may melt before the arctic air floods into the region. The Pennsylvania snow map includes both lake effect and snows from the upper level low.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Water Temperature...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Rain then a coating to 1in of snow with snow squalls.
Baltimore, MD- Rain followed by snow squalls; coating to 1in.
Salisbury, MD- Rain followed by scattered snow showers; no accumulation.
Pittsburgh, PA- Rain then a period of heavy snow then snow showers; accumulations 2-5in
State College PA- Rain followed by heavy snow squalls; accumulations 1-4in
Williamsport, PA- Rain then heavy snow squalls; accumulations 1-2in
Altoona, PA- Rain then a period of moderate snow showers followed by snow showers; accumulations 2-4in
Harrisburg, PA- Rain then scattered snow squalls; c-2in of snow possible
Lancaster, PA- Rain followed by scatted snow squalls; c-1in of snow possible
Philadelphia, PA- Rain then scatted snow showers; no accumulation
Allentown, PA- Rain then scatted snow showers; a coating of snow possible
Scranton, PA- Rain then scatted snow squalls; 1-2in of snow possible
Washington, DC- Rain then scattered snow showers; a coating of snow possible
Wilmington, DE- Rain then scattered snow showers; little to no accumulation
Dover, DE- Rain then scattered snow showers; no snow accumulation
Trenton, NJ- Rain followed by scattered snow showers; a coating of snow possible
New York City, NY- Rain then scattered snow showers; no snow accumulation likely
Poughkeepsie, NY- Rain then scattered snow squalls; 1-2in of snow possible
Binghamton, NY- Rain then a period of moderate snow; 1-4in of snow possible
Ithaca, NY- Rain then a period of heavy snow followed by scattered snow showers; 3-7in of snow possible
Albany, NY- Rain then scattered snow squalls; 1-2in of snow possible
Hartford, CT- Rain then scattered snow squalls; c-2in of snow possible
Concord, NH- Light snow 1in accumulations, freezing rain .1in accumulation then rain followed by snow 1-4in
Providence, RI- Rain then scattered snow showers; little to no accumulation
Worcester, MA- Freezing rain .1in accumulation then rain followed by snow squalls 1-3in possible
Boston, MA- Rain followed by scattered snow showers; little to no accumulation
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain and gale force winds
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain and gale force winds
Burlington, VT- Wintry mix followed by rain and then heavy snow squalls; 3-6in of snow accumulation
Portland, ME- Wintry mix then rain followed by scattered snow squalls; 1-2in possible
Bangor, ME- Wintry mix followed by heavy snow squalls; 3-6in possible
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
The only model inconsistencies remain for the upper level low forecast position and the intensity of the vortex responsible for snow squall activity with the arctic frontal passage. The exact position and track will be critical to the snowfall max accumulations track. GFS tends to maintain the best dynamics across northern Pennsylvania and western New York State while the NAM and other guidance suggest a more sustained band of rain/snow moving across the entire northeast. Current boundary layer progs by high resolution guidance indicate temperatures above freezing for the majority of the QPF suggesting limited snow accumulations east of the Alleghany Front. Skewt charts also indicate the strongest winds will remain around 925-950mb and will likely only mix to the surface during an energy momentum transfer during the frontal passage. ECMWF guidance is even weaker with the ULL with minimal snow accumulations for all areas generally below advisory criteria. Lake effect snow shower activity will increase by Friday. NAM simulated radar shows several longer bands stretching east of the mountains in New York State and Pennsylvania, but exact location remains uncertain until we get closer to the event. Total SREF QPF for lake effect snows are generally .4in or less. This is due to the unorganized activity with a multi band setup.

After the Storm
As to be expected given this winter's track record, guidance and global teleconnections are no longer supporting a sustained pattern change. Recent ECMWF weeklies and NAEFS prognostics indicate a brief cold period this weekend followed by increasing anomalies towards weeks 2 and 3. It still appears earlier indications of a gradient pattern are likely, but the recent retreat in the expected -NAO appears to have lifted the thermal gradient farther north. This will allow for a more amplified southeast ridge with warmer temperatures reaching farther north locations. Current teleconnections look terrible for a sustained pattern change with a +NAO, -PNA, and questionable MJO phase change. While the pattern will become more stormy, long range guidance suggests very mild weather in the 2-3 week period. ECMWF weeklies were near +5F for the northern Middle Atlantic. Any colder weather will remain across Canada and towards Alaska. There will likely be some sort of snow accumulation before the end of the month for all locations, but east coast cyclogenesis remains unlikely. Towards February a few wavelengths show a return to brief colder weather early in the month, but given the state of the increasing solar activity and madden jullian monsoonal patterns, this remains questionable. Wavelengths suggest stormy periods towards the 16th and 21st of January, but rain vs snow will be a problem through the entire Northeast.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total- (January)- 0.2in
Seasonal Total- 6.1in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - January 18 - 0.2in of snow

Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD (Blizzard92)
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

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315. PattyNorthShoreLI
7:33 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:


I think I speak for Blizz & everyone else in saying welcome!

What time is that game on Sunday?
Quoting MariettaMoon:


I think I speak for Blizz & everyone else in saying welcome!

What time is that game on Sunday?



3PM Sunday.
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
314. MariettaMoon
6:28 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting PattyNorthShoreLI:
Hey guys, I recently started reading this blog and find it quite informative. Realistic weather predictions as opposed to the fantasy on tv, papers,etc.

Looking at upcoming snow predictions, it looks like best dynamics Thursday, Thurs night, will be up in Maine. Couple inches possible?

Saturday seems like fairly rigorous system, but also appears precip type might still be an issue, with warm layer in midlevels of atmosphere. I am hoping for a Snow Bowl in Foxboro? Chances this early?


I think I speak for Blizz & everyone else in saying welcome!

What time is that game on Sunday?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
313. MariettaMoon
6:23 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
wow the temperature has spiked up the last hour. now at 52F

Campbelltown, PA

MM - I was not saying we can't do without the computers and models. I just look at twice in the past 2 weeks the models were bad. They were clueless on the big LES event Jan 1st and 2nd. And it appears they didn't have a handle on the end of this week. I think you are correct on what to use, but that probably won't happen and soon enough it will be all computer, just as you said

The other thing is at what point do the supercomputers get smart and decide to take over the world. Oh wait we need Cyberdyne to first get that special chip. hahahahaha


Ditto :)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
312. bwi
6:11 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
12z GFS looks much colder for DC area on Sunday than prior forecasts. Blizz was hinting at this earlier -- I should have known!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
311. Zachary Labe
3:46 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
0.2in of snow here this morning. I am working on the new blog now. It will be out sometime this afternoon along with snow maps and a timeline.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
310. crowe1
3:42 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Currently: Temp 23.5F falling, wind W20-25G35, press. 29.92" rising
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
309. crowe1
3:34 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Broadalbin, NY (on the South shore of the Great Sacandaga Lake)
02:16am- Temp 35.1 F- DP 28.6 F Press 29.56in -Wind-West 45.0mph Gust 65.0mph.
That's the highest non-thunderstorm gust in the 11 years I've lived here, previous was 55mph.
(modified to clarify time)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
308. listenerVT
2:31 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Winds atop Mount Mansfield included a gust of 81mph at 2:45am!

So, Blizz, I need to drive to NH on Friday morning, on to SW Maine on Friday afternoon, then home again Saturday evening. Is that Saturday storm folks keep mentioning going to cause me trouble? Anything else I should be aware of?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
307. PattyNorthShoreLI
2:18 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
Hey guys, I recently started reading this blog and find it quite informative. Realistic weather predictions as opposed to the fantasy on tv, papers,etc.

Looking at upcoming snow predictions, it looks like best dynamics Thursday, Thurs night, will be up in Maine. Couple inches possible?

Saturday seems like fairly rigorous system, but also appears precip type might still be an issue, with warm layer in midlevels of atmosphere. I am hoping for a Snow Bowl in Foxboro? Chances this early?
Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
306. TheRasberryPatch
1:08 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
0.13" of rain yesterday and 0.2" of snow this morning so far...high wind gust of 27mph

Campbelltown, PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
305. Matlack
12:48 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
I heard that a wind gust was recorded at the top of the Carrier dome (~106'high) at 105 mph this morning! That squall line must have done some damage overnight in New England.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
304. wunderstorm87
11:39 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
It's uhm... snowing. Here in Camp Hill. Ground is coated.

A couple Huron-Erie streamers formed overnight and just made it into the LSV a couple hours ago. Some areas will see a surprise inch or two of snow.

We just had a very brief snow shower here too. 35.4F
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
303. PalmyraPunishment
10:57 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
It's uhm... snowing. Here in Camp Hill. Ground is coated.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
302. testbenchdude
7:28 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Obviously supercomputers can do things far greater than the human mind. We'd be comparitively clueless without them with coastal storms popping up virtually out of nowhere causing much more havoc than they do with them. We simply could not forecast accurately more than 12 hours out without them.

I think right now, it's best to use 1/2 model guidance and 1/2 knowledge, experience & common sense.

During this century, human meteorologists will no longer be necessary, replaced entirely by supercomputers.


If there is one thing I've learned through two meteo classes (taking advanced meteo this spring) it's this: in order to accurately predict the weather, we must know the temp, pressure, speed, and direction of every single molecule of air in our atmosphere. A formula to model these variables does exist, but even the fastest computers of our age are only able to produce a prediction that will have been months out of date by the time it works through all of the computations. As a workaround, bits and pieces of the formula are excised completely in order to get it down to something more manageable.

My prof showed us a slide containing said formula; it was 4 or 5 lines of derivatives (calculus, thanks Newton!) and it looked like Sanskrit to me (and I got an A in calc 101). How anyone could have built such a formula is way beyond my cognizance, but the mere existence of it is humbling to the nth degree.

All that said, I do believe the science of meteorology will continue to evolve (perhaps apace with Moore's Law). I, for one, am looking forward to continuing developments. For now, though, I will look upon the Feb 2nd GFS wishcast amd dream about lots of snow. ;)
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
301. TheRasberryPatch
2:21 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
wow the temperature has spiked up the last hour. now at 52F

Campbelltown, PA

MM - I was not saying we can't do without the computers and models. I just look at twice in the past 2 weeks the models were bad. They were clueless on the big LES event Jan 1st and 2nd. And it appears they didn't have a handle on the end of this week. I think you are correct on what to use, but that probably won't happen and soon enough it will be all computer, just as you said

The other thing is at what point do the supercomputers get smart and decide to take over the world. Oh wait we need Cyberdyne to first get that special chip. hahahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
300. bwi
1:51 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Pretty interesting weather for 8pm in mid January. I sailed home.

Washington DC, Reagan National Airport
Lat: 38.86 Lon: -77.03 Elev: 16
Last Update on Jan 17, 7:52 pm EST
Mostly Cloudy
58 °F
(14 °C) Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: SW 20 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 47 °F (8 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
299. MariettaMoon
1:51 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Obviously supercomputers can do things far greater than the human mind. We'd be comparitively clueless without them with coastal storms popping up virtually out of nowhere causing much more havoc than they do with them. We simply could not forecast accurately more than 12 hours out without them.

I think right now, it's best to use 1/2 model guidance and 1/2 knowledge, experience & common sense.

During this century, human meteorologists will no longer be necessary, replaced entirely by supercomputers.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
298. MariettaMoon
1:43 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Thought this was interesting

...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOR THE OLYMPICS...
WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST NORTH OF STEVENS
PASS...FOR HIGH DANGER ABOVE 4000 FEET

...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOR THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST FROM STEVENS PASS SOUTHWARD AND
FOR THE MT HOOD AREA...FOR HIGH DANGER ABOVE 4000 FEET TUESDAY
INCREASING AND BECOMING EXTREME ABOVE 5000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY

...AVALANCHE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES...

VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN MORE DANGEROUS
AVALANCHE CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WA CASCADES AND THE MT HOOD
AREA. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS 1-3 FEET OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
DENSITY SNOW OVER HAS BEEN DEPOSITED OVER AND IS POORLY BONDED TO
THE OLD SNOW SURFACE...PRIMARILY A HARD CRUST LAYER FORMED AFTER
WARM WEATHER LAST WEEK. FIELD REPORTS TUESDAY MORNING INDICATE
THAT SLIDES RANGING UP TO ABOUT 18 TO 24 INCHES WERE RELEASING
RELATIVELY EASILY BY SKI OR EXPLOSIVES WITH SOME OF THESE STEPPING
DOWN TO AND INVOLVING MOST OF THE RECENT SNOW ABOVE THE OLD CRUST.

GRADUALLY DEEPER AND DENSER WIND SLABS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY SHOULD
BE LOADED BY EVEN LARGER AND MORE DENSE SNOWFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS...HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND SOME WARMING
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WA CASCADES AND MT
HOOD AREA...INCREASINGLY LARGE ...SENSITIVE ...FAST...AND LONG
RUNNING SLIDES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SMOOTH HARD ICE CRUST THAT
SHOULD ACT AS THE PRIMARY SLIDING SURFACE IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. MOORE

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
297. Zachary Labe
1:07 AM GMT on January 18, 2012

Keep an eye on the low-topped convection. Velocity radar indicates some strong winds reaching the surface briefly at high wind warning criteria. Stable layer over eastern Pennsylvania should allow for weakening of the line, but gusty winds are possible.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
296. Zachary Labe
1:04 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
New blog out tomorrow afternoon! Using the concept of a rollover technique, I am putting off the warmth that everyone is talking about till late in the week. I think cooler air (will take people by surprise) will hang on especially for New England during the beginning of next week. Then as a Great Lakes cutter forms, the warmth will finally hit for a 1-3 day period.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
295. Zachary Labe
12:59 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


not really Blizz. Hey now....I'm not quite that old...hahahahaha. I love technology.

That is what they all say... hahahah
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
294. TheRasberryPatch
12:48 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Ah just another member of the I hate technology generation. ;) hahahaha


not really Blizz. Hey now....I'm not quite that old...hahahahaha. I love technology.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
293. PalmyraPunishment
12:36 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Some nasty storms out near Saint Mary's right now. WOW.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
292. wunderstorm87
12:13 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
There are some fairly impressive reports coming in from western New York and northern PA including wind gusts to near 70mph (67 and 68mph) with trees & power lines down in Warren county as well.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
291. PalmyraPunishment
12:08 AM GMT on January 18, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
don't mind me...I just think that people put so much emphasis on models and computers. I wonder if the so called experts ever put age and experience into their equation.


I think my first wunderblog may have been about this. Can't remember.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
290. wunderstorm87
11:23 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
CTP's first severe thunderstorm warning of 2012 comes (I believe) before their first winter storm warning. These storms look pretty benign on radar but base velocities reveal just how strong the winds are with them. I don't even think there's any lightning in the portion of the line in Warren county.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
289. Zachary Labe
11:04 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


And I just sit here....Yep just sit here wondering and thinking and laughing.

don't mind me...I just think that people put so much emphasis on models and computers. I wonder if the so called experts ever put age and experience into their equation.

Ah just another member of the I hate technology generation. ;) hahahaha
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
288. wxgeek723
11:00 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
So much for "January"...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC009-013-029-121-172315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0002.120117T2236Z-120117T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
536 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3633
287. wunderstorm87
10:53 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
A line of severe thunderstorms is moving through northwest PA & western NY right now with the potential for damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm warnings look quite odd on top of lake effect snow advisories.

The SPC has issued an MD about it which says they may issue a watch, but I doubt it given the marginal setup.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
286. TheRasberryPatch
10:09 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Long term ensemble trends indicate possible upstream blocking and a shift in the entire global jet stream regime. The current pattern we are in is nearly the 90 day mark meaning it is becoming very stale. Typically anomalous teleconnections patterns last 60-90 day periods. So while it is possible a pattern change is coming, I am being very careful and wary given the seasonal trend. The suggested pattern change is a bit of hype as people become desperate for snow. But I do think I can say February will be the most winter-like month we have seen so far, although that is not saying much, lol.


And I just sit here....Yep just sit here wondering and thinking and laughing.

don't mind me...I just think that people put so much emphasis on models and computers. I wonder if the so called experts ever put age and experience into their equation.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
284. MariettaMoon
9:46 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
This is my "I'll see it when I believe it" face...

:-|


Same here...

Check out this crow sledding down a snowcovered roof on a jar lid sled not once, but twice!
Link
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
283. PalmyraPunishment
9:34 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
This is my "I'll see it when I believe it" face...

:-|
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
282. Zachary Labe
9:18 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks Blizz, that looks interesting, do you still agree with a likely warm-up for the last 9-10 days of January? Henry Margusity on Accu. Weather, keeps insisting Feb. will be interesting with the AO going neg, the PNA moving Positive, and the NAO going Neg. Do you see that too? Thanks, LT

Long term ensemble trends indicate possible upstream blocking and a shift in the entire global jet stream regime. The current pattern we are in is nearly the 90 day mark meaning it is becoming very stale. Typically anomalous teleconnections patterns last 60-90 day periods. So while it is possible a pattern change is coming, I am being very careful and wary given the seasonal trend. The suggested pattern change is a bit of hype as people become desperate for snow. But I do think I can say February will be the most winter-like month we have seen so far, although that is not saying much, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
281. bwi
8:10 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Stunningly beautiful afternoon in DC. Good tailwind setup for my evening commute to northern Prince George's county.

Washington DC, Reagan National Airport
Lat: 38.86 Lon: -77.03 Elev: 16
Last Update on Jan 17, 2:52 pm EST


Partly Cloudy and Breezy

57 °F
(14 °C) Humidity: 62 %
Wind Speed: SW 23 G 31 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1007.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 44 °F (7 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
280. MariettaMoon
7:17 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Winter storm looking increasingly likely for Saturday along and north of the Mason-Dixon line. Questions to where the snow/ice/rain lines form, but areas south of the snow shield will see a nasty ice storm due to some CAD from a high to the north. Latest 12z GFS is a bad ice storm for southern Pennsylvania with snow along and north of I-80. 0z ECMWF was much farther south with the snows around and just south of the Mason-Dixon line, although given the seasonal trend, that is probably too far south.


I'm thinking 6"-10" type all snow for southern upstate New York, central New England. 3"-6" type in PA along & north of I-80 above 1500' with some mixing. T"-3" Mainly ice between I-80 & I-78 in PA and for New Englands I-95 corridor, and ice to rain south of I-78. Mainly rain for the mid-atlantic I-95 corridor. Snowfall amounts taper off into northern New York & northern New England.

Obviously too far out yet for accurate amounts, but I'll go with this type of thinking as a 72hr-plus starting point.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
279. crowe1
6:29 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Moderate RN/FZR, 30F,29.7"falling. Sounds like slippery conditions on the scanner.
Broadalbin, NY
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
278. listenerVT
5:29 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Hallo world. My computer is acting flaky, so if I disappear for awhile don't worry, I'll be back.

At least I just got backups done.


OriginalLT and F1 and Pcroton...
Sooo happy to hear you got some of the white stuff!!

May the same be true for everyone soon.

If it's any consolation, given that we got a foot of snow here...
it's now RAINING here.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
277. originalLT
4:44 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Thanks Blizz, that looks interesting, do you still agree with a likely warm-up for the last 9-10 days of January? Henry Margusity on Accu. Weather, keeps insisting Feb. will be interesting with the AO going neg, the PNA moving Positive, and the NAO going Neg. Do you see that too? Thanks, LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7715
276. TheRasberryPatch
4:40 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Very interesting Blizz. I guess we will have to stay tuned. I know the kids will be disappointed that the storm doesn't occur during the week.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
275. Zachary Labe
4:19 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Winter storm looking increasingly likely for Saturday along and north of the Mason-Dixon line. Questions to where the snow/ice/rain lines form, but areas south of the snow shield will see a nasty ice storm due to some CAD from a high to the north. Latest 12z GFS is a bad ice storm for southern Pennsylvania with snow along and north of I-80. 0z ECMWF was much farther south with the snows around and just south of the Mason-Dixon line, although given the seasonal trend, that is probably too far south.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
274. originalLT
3:11 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Wow, the last 10 days of the month look warm. Here in Stamford, looks like the rain will be back here by 11:30-12pm, that will wash away our 1" of snow :(. Now its 38F, Baro. 29.93 and falling slowly, Winds are South at 2-7mph. Its cloudy, had a little sun between, 9-10AM.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7715
273. MariettaMoon
2:57 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Certainly not out of the woods yet concerning 2011-2012 record low snowfall totals. That October storm is really helping some locales in that department and anywhere that didn't see snow from that is in jeapordy of very low and in some cases record low snowfalls, particularly the farther north you go (until you hit extreme northern Maine).

Even though the lake effect belts have recently seen some snow, they're still far behind where they should be and on record low pace. A potential saving grace is that Lake Erie should remain largely unfrozen, greatly extending the LES season there.

The prospect of a moderate snowfall within range of the Mason-Dixon line could put a nice dent in snowfall deficits there, but the recent northern trend (obviously things could still change) is a little discouraging for that region. A moderate snowfall across the PA/NY border would only put a very minor dent in the deficits there.

Sure, we could have a nice snowstorm pop up the east coast over the next 2 months if we cross our fingers and get lucky, but the outlook is not promising with a strengthening LaNina and a NAO that just doesn't want to budge.

BTW, looks like we "could" be in for another hot summer.






Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
272. Zachary Labe
2:53 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Congrats to our southern New England bloggers! Snow definitely exceed expectations up that way courtesy of a strong WAA driven light snow shield last night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
271. NEwxguy
2:49 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
Snow!Snow!Snow!,ok so its only 2.5 inches,but its white.It took till Jan 17th.Two more chances into this weekend.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
270. crowe1
2:43 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
1.4" of the nicest fluffy snow so far this year. More would've been nice but this season beggars can't be choosers eh? Temp is 26.6F and rising, press. is 29.91, falling slowly.
Broadalbin,NY.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
269. MariettaMoon
2:25 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
They may be overdoing it a little on The Weather Channel saying Seattle will get 12"-18". It will probably be more like 6"-12" from yesterday to Wednesday in the city itself, probably dependant on elevation and proximity to Puget Sound.

Seattle seasonal averages
NWS Seattle: 3.6"
Seattle Urban: 5.0"
Seattle-Tacoma AP: 6.8"

Record snowstorm is 20", I'm guessing at Seattle-Tacoma AP.
------------------------------------------------- ----

That moderate weekend snowstorm that was focused on the Mason-Dixon line on the 18Z GFS has shifted north to focus on I-80 at the moment.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
268. TheRasberryPatch
2:03 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
BTW - Consumer Reports magazine for February has a report on snowblowers. Anyone that needs one take a look. hahahahaha

I have had a Cub Cadet 2 stage that I bought after the record year of '95-'96 winter. It worked perfectly the next year. The next winter was dry. Seriously, the snowblower has worked great. And it has seen some record years. Lower Hudson Valley 2000-2001 was an incredible year. And still one pull it starts.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
267. GTOSnow
12:50 PM GMT on January 17, 2012
I had to plow my driveway this morning!!! Probably about 3" at my house!
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
266. Pcroton
11:31 AM GMT on January 17, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


Do we need a new blog to discuss the snow chances? j/k. I feel like the Grinch. The noise noise noise about this winter and the models. hahahahaha
and look there are chances in a few days.

Temps have slowly increased this afternoon - 36F. probably rose 3F in the last 90mins


We all should have known better. The chances were very low to get three consecutive record setting winters.

We also should recall history for our areas that usually after one or two consecutive big winters the next is usually warm and wet.

I remember after the 1997-1998 blizzards the following fall was nearly identical to the previous and everyone rang the alarms we would have a repeat winter. Yeah, didn't happen not even close.

Same thing here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9150
265. Pcroton
11:27 AM GMT on January 17, 2012
Got an inch of snow here in NY. 33F so that's a good thing. Plows went by dropping salt at about 4am.

Just gotta scrape the car off and head to the train in an hour.

Wasn't looking forward to ice and we didn't get any that I can tell.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9150

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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