Midweek Ice for Interior New England...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:34 PM GMT on January 10, 2012

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


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"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
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-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
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-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total (January)- 0.0in
Seasonal Total- 5.9in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow

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26. TheRasberryPatch
8:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
I read most of the 3rd page. Too funny. That was before I knew you were a child weather prodigy....hahahahaha. I thought you were 30something.

I think that windex event missed me. Surprisingly, I thought we used to see them often...like once a year or every other year.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
25. Zachary Labe
6:58 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


It's not a big deal. Bulbs push up through the ground and trees bud. Just part of winter. Nothing to worry about.

Blizz - the windex event....sounds like temps in the mid 30's and then the squall passes with a quick 1.5" of snow and the temps fall into the upper 20's by the time the snow stops bringing on a quick layer of ice on the roads? Major icing on the roads I should say. Is that correct?

Yep, that is 100% correct. We had a similar event a few winters ago. This is the blog from that event. Check it out... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
24. TheRasberryPatch
6:39 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Quoting TheF1Man:
Trees are budding in my area, not good!

Has anyone else noticed this where they are?


It's not a big deal. Bulbs push up through the ground and trees bud. Just part of winter. Nothing to worry about.

Blizz - the windex event....sounds like temps in the mid 30's and then the squall passes with a quick 1.5" of snow and the temps fall into the upper 20's by the time the snow stops bringing on a quick layer of ice on the roads? Major icing on the roads I should say. Is that correct?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
23. TheF1Man
5:28 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Trees are budding in my area, not good!

Has anyone else noticed this where they are?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
22. Zachary Labe
4:53 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Quoting bwi:
Hi Blizz, if possible would appreciate your thoughts on timing of the "strong windex event with rapidly falling temperatures and advisory-criteria winds" for the DC area. Sounds like the bad weather would be after midnight in our area. Hopefully after rush hour at least on Thursday.

I will try to add a timeline feature on my new blog along with a few snow maps; hopefully this will help.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
21. bwi
4:49 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Hi Blizz, if possible would appreciate your thoughts on timing of the "strong windex event with rapidly falling temperatures and advisory-criteria winds" for the DC area. Sounds like the bad weather would be after midnight in our area. Hopefully after rush hour at least on Thursday.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
20. Zachary Labe
4:26 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Quoting HeavySnow:
What is a windex event again? I've forgotten. Thanks.

It stands for winter instability index. It is used to quantify the chances and thresholds for widespread snow squall activity. It takes into account such things as lapse rates, CAPE, lift, etc. Here is a simple explanation link... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
19. HeavySnow
3:55 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
What is a windex event again? I've forgotten. Thanks.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
18. originalLT
3:21 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Thanks Blizz, looking foreward to the new blog.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
17. Zachary Labe
3:08 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
Good morning! Heavy rain moving into the Northeast today. There will be some freezing rain and sleet in parts of the higher elevations in the Middle Atlantic up through southern New England, but warmer air will once again prevail confining wintry precipitation to Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Snow accumulations could exceed 4in in these areas.

A strong ULL will move through the Northeast behind the storm system on Thursday night. Indications are showing a strong windex event with rapidly falling temperatures and advisory-criteria winds. Model QPF is varied, but indicates the potential for a widespread accumulation of snow across the region especially for inland locations. Stay tuned! GFS/NAM guidance also indicates a strong vortex this weekend associated with a clipper that may spread a swath of light snow accumulations across the northern Middle Atlantic. For clipper standards, it looks pretty healthy. ECMWF though is dry in this period. Heavy lake effect snows will be ongoing Thursday night through Saturday behind the large squall line. Exciting weather ahead and I will have a new blog today! Stay tuned!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
16. crowe1
11:33 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
You'll be near my neck of the woods eh Listener? Are you bringing the snow? If so thanks!
Safe trip.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
15. crowe1
11:25 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
WOW, a WWA!!!

Statement as of 4:05 AM EST on January 11, 2012

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
noon EST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and freezing rain... which is in effect
from midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.

* Locations... western New England... and all of eastern New York
excluding the southern Adirondacks.

* Hazard types... snow... sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... 1 to 6 inches of snow accumulation with up to
two tenths of an inch of ice accretion.

* Timing... midnight tonight into Thursday morning.

* Impacts... hazardous travel conditions.

* Winds... northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Temperatures... rising from the mid 20s and lower 30s tonight
into the mid to upper 30s late Thursday morning.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
14. listenerVT
5:30 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
Thanks, Blizz!

Thanks to you as well, MariettaMoon!

Tomorrow I'm headed to the Albany area and back to get my Mini serviced, as the bonnet latch is busted. We won't get a Mini dealer up here until March. Looking forward to easy servicing!

Looks like I'll have the one good traveling day for the trip. =Whew!=

Dare I add that we got another dusting of snow today. I wish I'd counted how many days we've seen it snowing this season, but somehow we never have more than an inch or inch and a half on the ground. We never have to shovel, just sweep sometimes. Never enough for snowshoeing and rarely enough for anything else. Too strange.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5599
13. photonchaser
2:26 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
Winter storm watches for Inland New England, only three miles north of me. Sometimes living on the coast isn't so good for snow.
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
12. h2oskt
1:01 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
WHEN IT IS SAID AND DONE LATE THURSDAY EXPECT SLOPPY SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-4 INCHES IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH. NWS Albany - it is not much, but this storm will hopefully mark the change to our current weather pattern.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 54
11. MariettaMoon
12:43 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
REPOST LAST LAST BLOG

Anchorage Alaska 2011-2012 Seasonal Snowfall to Date (through January 9th)

Observed Value: 81.4” (6.8’)
Normal Value: 41.6” (3.5’)
Departure from Norm: +39.8” (+3.3’)
Percent of Norm: 196%
7AM 01/09 Snow Depth: 26” (2.2’)

Valdez Alaska 2011-2012 Seasonal Snowfall to Date (through January 9th)

Observed Value: 290.5” (24.2’)
Normal Value: 145.5” (12.1’)
Departure from Norm: +145.0” (+12.1’)
Percent of Norm: 200%
7AM 01/09 Snow Depth: 74” (6.2’)
------------------------------------------------- ------

Blizz, the 12Z GFS meteogram is frustrating. It has Harrisburg down to 12F at 7am on January 16th, then 55F at 7am on January 26th. 3.90” total precip with around 1” total snow through January 26th. I'm praying for 1". I have yet to see a snowcovered Marietta (was away that weekend in October).
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
10. originalLT
12:26 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
Thanks MM for your hard work in compiling these stats, very interesting.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
9. MariettaMoon
12:21 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
I analyzed the 248 official National Weather Service snowfall measuring stations across the lower-48 United States that average at least 0.1” through January 8th.

21 of those 248 (8%) had positive snowfall anomalies, while 227 of 248 (92%) had negative anomalies.

Here are the 21 stations with positive snowfall anomalies through January 8th.

Clayton, NM: +13.0”
Cheyenne, WY: +10.7”
Flagstaff, NM: +10.5”
Roswell, NM: +9.6”
Midland, TX: +6.2”
Denver, CO: +6.1”
Pueblo, CO: +6.0”
Riverton, WY: +5.4”
Concord, NH: +4.8”
Rapid City, SD: +3.2”
Bangor, ME: +2.7”
Jackson, TN: +2.5”
Amarillo, TX: +2.4”
Germantown, TN: +2.0”
Dalhart, TX: +1.1”
Little Rock, AR: +1.0”
East Rapid City, SD: +0.8”
Fort Wayne, IN: +0.8”
Memphis, TN: +0.8”
Pine Bluff, AR: +0.2”
Lubbock, TX: +0.1”
------------------------------------------------- ------

None of the 248 stations are located in the higher elevations of the mountain west where negative anomalies are much greater than the lower elevation climate stations. Here are the top-21 negative anomalies through January 8th.

Buffalo, NY: -38.1”
Syracuse, NY: -38.1”
Muskegon, MI: -37.9”
Sault Ste. Marie, MI: -34.9”
Rochester, NY: -28.9”
Erie, PA: -28.4”
Marquette, MI: -27.3”
Duluth, MN: -27.2”
Grand Rapids, MI: -25.9”
Alpena, MI: -24.7”
Spokane NWS, WA: -23.2”
Kalispell, MT: -22.2”
Williston, ND: -21.5”
Houghton Lake, MI: -20.1”
Bismarck, ND: -19.2”
Fargo, ND: -19.0”
Sioux Falls, SD: -18.4”
Binghamton, NY: -17.6”
Spokane AP, WA: -16.5”
Madison, WI: -16.4”
Grand Forks, ND: -16.3”
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
8. doom22015
12:05 AM GMT on January 11, 2012
Pattern change... by December '13, I hope.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
7. PalmyraPunishment
11:37 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
"pattern change" lol

maybe by june
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
6. CapeCoralStorm
10:07 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
How depressing. lol
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
5. Zachary Labe
9:16 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
Another 50F day here, shocking!

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
4. TheRasberryPatch
8:30 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
Blizz - from the last blog...bite your tongue on shooting for 80". Don't make me send PP to Cornell. 40" - 44" is plenty.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
3. bwi
8:22 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
Perfectly clear blue sky day in DC. 53F, with mild W winds. Looking forward to my commute. (It'll be a crosswind/tailwind most of the way.)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
2. originalLT
7:36 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
OK Blizz, we'll be waiting!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
1. Zachary Labe
7:34 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
*I just wanted to get a clean slate blog posted. I will post a blog with discussions in the coming days.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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