Heavy lake effect snow and arctic outbreak for the Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:08 PM GMT on December 31, 2011

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The first major lake effect/upslope snow event will be occurring in the next few days. Since I have been tracking the weather, this is one of the latest first lake effect snow outbreaks I have witnessed. None the less, it will only feel like January conditions for a few days before milder air moves into the region towards the end of the week as H85s rise above 0C up to the Canadian border.

Thoughts on January 1-3 Lake Effect Snow Outbreak and Arctic Blast
A strong cold front is advancing towards the Northeast on Sunday associated with light rain showers. QPF generally will remain less than .2in for most areas. Behind the front is a surge of arctic air as H85s rapidly drop below 0C changing any residual rain along the front to snow particularly for western New England. A 1040mb anticyclone across the Northwest territories along with an amplified western +PNA ridge is allowing for a cross polar flow directly across the contiguous United States. Given the close proximity between the high and low pressure, a tight isobaric flow will give way to strong winds at the surface. Directly behind the front, winds will shift to the west-southwest gusting to nearly 45mph for most locations. Across western New York state, particularly along the Adirondacks and the Chautauqua Ridge, winds could exceed 60mph briefly Sunday night. As 850mb thermals drop to nearly -10C by Sunday night, the 260 degree flow will slowly organize lake effect snow bands off of Erie and Ontario. Temperature differentials well over the 8-13C threshold, will allow defined bands to begin to develop until a highly unstable setup as elevated CAPE values approach several hundred joules.

Bands initially will favor northern locations particularly in New York state with a band Sunday night situated from Erie, PA to Jamestown, NY to Buffalo, NY. This band will slowly drift south overnight as the flow shifts more westerly. Another band in this time frame will stretch from Rochester along the lake shore to Oswego and possibly up as far north as Watertown, NY. Snow accumulations for both of the bands will be in the 4-8in range. These bands will be migratory and will preclude higher accumulations especially in the Buffalo metro. The southern portion of the metro will be prone to the higher accumulations up to 8in. Weak snow showers will begin to form along upslope locations in Pennsylvania and Maryland, but accumulations will be less than 1in through most of Sunday night.

By Monday morning the flow will shift more westerly to around 280 degrees. This will allow bands to shift southward into northern Pennsylvania with heavy snow from Erie, Crawford, McKean, and Warren counties. Ratios will begin to increase to near 25:1 as H85s drop to nearly -20C and a favorable dendritic growth area occurs according to recent SkewT charts. Given the fluffy snow, accumulations will approach 12in by Tuesday across northern Pennsylvania and the Chautauqua Ridge region in southern New York. The band off of Erie will situate a bit more due west stretching from Oswego through the Tug Hill. Given the great amount of instability and relatively low shear values under adequate moisture aloft, snow rates will increase to nearly 3in/hr. Total snowfall is likely around 2ft for areas in the Tug Hill plateau given the additional orographic lift.

Monday afternoon will continue to see a veering in the winds with an increase in shear as the flow turns due northwest around 310-320 degrees. This will decrease the intensity in singular bands allowing for a multi-band and cellular flow. Accumulation rates will decline in the typical snow belts, but increase across the upslope regions in the Laurel Highlands and western Maryland. Past analogs indicate a high likelihood of a Huron-Erie streamer funneling through the Laurel Highlands across parts of southern Cambria county where accumulations will max to nearly a foot of snow by Tuesday night. The lower valleys are more likely to see accumulations on the order of 2-5in. Elsewhere across Pennsylvania, widespread snow showers are likely. The northwest flow with sustained winds at nearly 20-30mph will allow for a near ideal fetch off the lakes with snow showers east of the mountains. As the flow continues to shift more northerly, snow showers from the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays are likely across coastal regions. No accumulation is likely.

Monday night will feature a waning in diurnal activity, but several streamers are likely to form. Across New York state, additional moisture from the finger lakes is likely with a north-northwest flow with amounts across this region at nearly 3-8in. Several streamers are possible over western Pennsylvania near Pittsburgh and across central Pennsylvania. Amounts will be light, but a 2-3in amount cannot be ruled out. Farther east streamers will be more isolated, but the potential will exist for a quick 1-2in of snow.

By Tuesday the low pressure across Canada will pull to the east and this will allow the moisture to reach the upslope regions across New Hampshire and particularly Vermont. Amounts look less than originally expected only reach 6-12in for the higher elevations. The snow maps below, produced yesterday, are likely a bit too high in accumulation for this area. Snow showers and multi bands will continue off Erie and Ontario along with some Georgian Bay and Huron enhancement. Once again diurnal snow showers are possible across the entire Northeast, but little to no accumulation is likely. H85s will drop to -20C and thicknesses will approach sub 510dm 1000-500mb. The core of the coldest air will be over the region. Winds continuously sustained at 20-30mph will allow for dangerous wind chills approaching advisory criteria for northern locations. Highs will struggle to reach 30F as far south as northern Virginia. High pressure moves in towards the region by Tuesday night cutting off the snow machine and allowing for the coldest night of the season with negative values likely for northern New England.

The heaviest snow amounts will be over the Tug Hill plateau and Chautauqua Ridge region in New York State with amounts upwards of 2ft. Accumulations across the Laurel Highlands and northern Pennsylvania will be closer to a foot. Towards the Vermont upslope region and across the Finger Lakes advisory criteria amounts are likely. Outside these areas accumulations will be more localized. I will have periodic updates throughout the next 72 hours on the development of the lake effect snow bands. Stay tuned!

Regional Radar...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Regional Advisories...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Storm Reports...
Pennsylvania

... Crawford County...
canadohta lake 11.2 959 am 1/02
Conneautville 6sw 8.0 1001 am 1/02
Meadville 5w 4.0 1018 am 1/02
Linesville 3.6 1006 am 1/02
Meadville 3.2 1011 am 1/02

... Erie County...
Colt station 5.0 1001 am 1/02
Franklin ctr 4.6 1003 am 1/02
3 NNW Colt station 4.0 1020 am 1/02
northeast 6sw 4.0 1012 am 1/02
Waterford 3.0 1021 am 1/02
Millcreek TWP 2.4 805 am 1/02
2 WSW Erie Airport 2.0 1010 am 1/02
Fairview 1.8 1009 am 1/02
Amity TWP 1.5 804 am 1/02
Erie Airport 1.4 1024 am 1/02

Storm Impacts...
1. High winds sustained at 20-30mph with gusts upwards of 55mph above 1500ft. Whiteout conditions with visibility less than .25mi in squalls.
2. Dangerous wind chills for northern areas approaching -20F at times.
3. Heavy snow amounts in favored snow belts with accumulations up to 2ft.
4. Widespread snow showers and squalls will bring wintry feel to the entire Northeast.
5. Temperatures will struggle to reach 32F as far south as Virginia for Monday and Tuesday.

Snow Maps...




***Both snow maps show the same event for lake effect and upslope snows over the January 1-3 period. Given the isolated nature of snow squalls, amounts will vary of small distances. Areas outside the 1-3in range have the threat of C-3in given any rogue snow showers or squalls. The area of higher accumulations over northern New England is associated with the upslope effect from the Green and White mountains. Accumulations will approach 1-2ft above 3000ft in parts of northern Vermont particularily towards ski resorts such as Stowe.

Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Current Lake Erie Water Temperature...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Selected City Accumulations"
Erie- 10-15in with higher amounts southeast of the city (12-24in)
Meadville, PA- 10-15in of snow
Bradford, PA- 8-14in of snow
Butler, PA- 3-5in of snow
Pittsburgh, PA- 1-4in of snow
Latrobe, PA- 2-5in of snow
Indiana, PA- 3-6in of snow
Johnstown, PA- 9-15in of snow
Somerset, PA- 4-8in of snow
Altoona, PA- 2-4in of snow
Du Bois/Clearfield, PA- 3-6in of snow with locally higher amounts
Philipsburg, PA- 3-5in of snow
State College, PA- 1-4in of snow
Lock Haven, PA- 1-3in of snow
Williamsport, PA- Locally 1-3in of snow
Mt. Pocono, PA- 1-4in of snow
Selinsgrove, PA- Locally 1-3in of snow
Harrisburg, PA- C-2in of snow
Hagerstown, MD- Locally C-2in of snow
Cumberland, MD- 1-3in of snow
Frostburg, MD- 4-8in of snow
McHenry, MD- 6-12in of snow
Oakland, MD- 7-14in of snow
Snowshoe, WV- 12in+ of snow
Buffalo, NY- 3-7in of snow. Higher amounts in southern metro region
Watertown, NY- 4-8in of snow
Syracuse, NY- 4-8in of snow
Albany, NY- Locally 1-2in of snow
Ithaca, NY- 2-4in of snow
Binghamton, NY- 1-3in of snow
Saranac Lake, NY- 3-5in of snow
Utica, NY- 5-10in of snow
Burlington, VT- 1-2in of snow. Higher amounts to east approaching 12in
North Conway, NH- 3-5in of snow
"Subject to Change"

Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

Model Analysis
We are still a bit out of range for the high resolution guidance to depict the positioning of the mesoscale bands, but the 4km WRF is beginning to get into range for the first half of the event with the flow more westerly. It indicates two larger bands generally across New York state Sunday night with one off Erie stretching into the Chautauqua Ridge region well into the Finger Lakes. The strong gradient will favor an excellent fetch far inland. Amounts will be highest across the Jamestown region. This band may initially form farther north into the Buffalo metro region, but latest guidance argues that amounts will stay at low end advisory for the metro area with a generally unfavorable flow. It is likely the band will not be overly intense given the strong gradient. A more distinct band is likely off Ontario into Watertown, NY and dropping south into Oswego and the Tug Hill Plateau. WRF QPF is generally around .6-.8in for most areas. Given 25:1 ratios, amounts up to 2ft are certainly possible. Keep in mind the resolution is not high enough on most models to accurately depict mesoscale QPF totals. As the flow turns more northwesterly, a classic orographic/upslope effect lift for snowfall will occur with more widespread snow shower activity. GFS 0.01in QPF drops well east to even the I-95 corridor as the arctic front passes through Monday night and may be accompanied by a few squalls and/or snow showers. Indices generally do not favor a windex event though given unfavorable timing and several other unfavorable indices. The typical upslope areas are given about .4in QPF by most higher resolution guidance and should translate to about 6-12in of snow. As we get closer to the event, the HRRR and other HIRES guidance should be able to help us pinpoint any surprise streamers that may form. The 4km WRF also indicates the impressive fetch may streamer the initial Erie streamer into the Mohawk Valley region towards Albany, NY, but given some directional shear aloft, it is likely less than 1in accumulation will be reported towards downtown. Few model discrepancies exist other than timing issues as the arctic front approaches and the transition from west to north-northwest winds occurs. The ECMWF is a bit faster and certainly limits snowfall especially across the Buffalo metro.

After the Storm
Global models are in fairly good agreement in the 6-10 day range. Increasing upper level heights over the eastern United States will allow warm Pacific air to once again flood the region by next weekend. The period will generally be dry with temperatures around 10F above normal. The 1000-500mb 540dm thickness will be as far north as northern New England so any precipitation in this time frame will generally be rain for the entire Northeast. The warmest air though will stay to the west over the central Plains, which will feature temperatures nearly 15-20F above normal continuing the snow drought over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Teleconnections remain in support of this mild period with a -PNA and continuing +NAO. At this point the Arctic Oscillation shows no sign of heading negative keeping the cold air locked up across the arctic and on the other side of the globe. The polar jet is very progressive with little buckling this year in comparison to the last few winters.

Guidance begins to diverge past the day 10 frame. Towards January 10, the GFS shows signs of an eastern based -NAO forming along with a positive PNA. The east can do fairly well in +PNA regimes (example: winter of 93-94). The cold blast for the first week in January is fueled directly by a positive PNA cycle. The MJO shows weak forcing in this period and perhaps in a more favorable phase. The stratospheric warming event that was forecast for early January still has yet to occur and looks to be continuously delayed. The CME (coronal mass ejection) forecast by astrometeorologists is helping to keep the stratosphere very cold and definitely not helping the eastern blocking situation. Generally weak solar periods are more favorable for upstream blocking. The GFS is indicating the pattern will be a bit more favorable by January 10 under a sharp gradient flow. A gradient flow indicates a strong thermal boundary will setup somewhere across the Northeast. South of the boundary will feature well above normal temperatures, while north of the boundary will feature seasonable chill. Forecasting the position of the thermal boundary is nearly impossible at this point. But areas north of the boundary may see an increased chance for wintry precipitation. The ECWMF is certainly more progressive towards this period with the ECMWF weeklies just dreadful for the next 30 days. On a more encouraging note, the ECMWF ensembles tend to favor a more GFS-type gradient flow by January 10.

Coastal chances will remain minimal, although current wavelengths are being watched around the January 8-10th period for possible eastern cyclogenesis. Stay tuned for this date. Snow chances will definitely be more likely than back in December, but the pattern still remains relatively poor. It is likely temperatures will be above normal for most locations for the month of January with below normal snowfall, but I doubt it will be nearly as poor as November and December.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Seasonal Total- 5.9in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow

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150. TheRasberryPatch
9:43 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
Start banging the Pattern change drums, folks! Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! lol


would that be for PU to break the pattern of ineptness in their football coach search?

it was very cold outside today. Jeans just don't do it in this cold
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
149. PalmyraPunishment
8:33 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Start banging the Pattern change drums, folks! Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
148. Zachary Labe
6:58 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Great, thank you!

Unfortunately the HRRR keeps diminishing today's 'dusting' threat to our south. Ugh, what a joke of a winter, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
147. MariettaMoon
6:52 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

I think you are using the wrong model. The link you put goes to the RR, which is a bit more experimental. Here is a link to the HRRR... Link


Great, thank you!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
146. Zachary Labe
5:54 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:


That would be sweeeeet! Although I'll wait till late January before geetting any real hope of that...

On the Hrrr, how do you get to that zoomed level with the counties? I can only get a zoomed out version of the NE region without counties.

I use this Hrrr Link, click "Rapid Refresh Plots", Domain: "Northeast", then I select what I want to see.

I think you are using the wrong model. The link you put goes to the RR, which is a bit more experimental. Here is a link to the HRRR... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
145. MariettaMoon
5:51 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

The encouraging part of all of this is that the entire global jet regime is shifting big time in the next week. Cold air will definitely be more available later in the month. Therefore I think it is likely snow chances will increase dramatically in about two weeks. For now lets cross our fingers for a nice light snow this afternoon, lol.


That would be sweeeeet! Although I'll wait till late January before geetting any real hope of that...

On the Hrrr, how do you get to that zoomed level with the counties? I can only get a zoomed out version of the NE region without counties.

I use this Hrrr Link, click "Rapid Refresh Plots", Domain: "Northeast", then I select what I want to see.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
144. Zachary Labe
5:34 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting MariettaMoon:


I'm not even gonna talk about a snow threat unless it's within the 3-day range. Including the coastal prospects that existed for Jan 2nd & 3rd, and Jan 8th, the theme of this winter is to show some decent coastal suggestions on guidance 5-7 days out, then completely drop any hint of a storm the day after the initial suggestion.

Meanwhile for the next 5-days. EEEeeeeeeek!

The encouraging part of all of this is that the entire global jet regime is shifting big time in the next week. Cold air will definitely be more available later in the month. Therefore I think it is likely snow chances will increase dramatically in about two weeks. For now lets cross our fingers for a nice light snow this afternoon, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
143. MariettaMoon
5:28 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z GFS is just horrible for snow lovers. This winter is beginning to get extremely frustrating.


I'm not even gonna talk about a snow threat unless it's within the 3-day range. Including the coastal prospects that existed for Jan 2nd & 3rd, and Jan 8th, the theme of this winter is to show some decent coastal suggestions on guidance 5-7 days out, then completely drop any hint of a storm the day after the initial suggestion.

Meanwhile for the next 5-days. EEEeeeeeeek!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
142. Zachary Labe
5:24 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
It is pretty dry out there so virga will be a problem, but if we are able to increase moisture a tad, I still cannot rule out c-1in for areas today in southern Pennsylvania and northern Maryland...

HRRR simulated radar this afternoon...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
141. Zachary Labe
4:51 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
12z GFS is just horrible for snow lovers. This winter is beginning to get extremely frustrating.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
140. crowe1
4:51 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Low of 2.3F on the Sacandaga Lake this a.m. WSW wind of 5-10mph has warmed the it up to 16.6F and still climbing to the forecast 22F.
Not a flake of snow on the ground:(
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
139. MariettaMoon
4:16 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
I got down to 10F this morning.

01/04/12 Actual Low F / 01/04 Record Low F

Caribou ME: -1 / -27
Houlton ME: 1 / -41
Millinocket ME: 0 / -28
Massena NY: -3 / -32
Bangor ME: 4 / -23
Burlington VT: 1 / -27
St. Johnsbury VT: -5 / -33
Montpelier VT: -6 / -19
Watertown NY: 1 / -38
Portland ME: 7 / -18
Concord NH: 3 / -23
Rochester NY: 3 / -10
Syracuse NY: 8 / -18
Buffalo NY: 3 / -7
Albany NY: 4 / -15
Boston MA: 11 / -4
Worcester MA: 5 / -8
Binghamton NY: -1 / -10
Erie PA: 7 / -4
Bradford PA: -11 / -14
Hartford CT: 11 / -7
Providence RI: 11 / -9
Scranton-Wilkes Barre PA: 5 / -9
Williamsport PA: 7 / -12
DuBois PA: -4 / -6
Bridgeport CT: 12 / -1
Mount Pocono PA: 4 / -23
Islip NY: 14 / 10
New York (CP) NY: 15 / -3
N. Queens (LAG) NY: 14 / 4
Newark NJ: 12 / 1
Allentown PA: 9 / -4
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 13 / 8
Pittsburgh PA: 9 / -8
Reading PA: 10 / -5
Trenton NJ: 13 / -1
Harrisburg PA: 11 / 3
Philadelphia PA: 14 / 2
Wilmington DE: 13 / -1
Morgantown WV: 8 / -2
Atlantic City NJ: 13 / 0
Martinsburg WV: 11 / 4
Parkersburg WV: 17 / -9
Glen Burnie (BWI) MD: 13 / 4
Dulles VA: 14 / 5
Elkins WV: 2 / -8
Arlington (DC) VA: 17 / -3
Georgetown DE: 16 / 4
Huntington WV: 16 / -2
Charleston WV: 12 / -9
Salisbury MD: 18 / 0
Wallops Island VA: 17 / 14
Beckley WV: 10 / -13
Richmond VA: 17 / -1
Roanoke VA: 20 / 8
Lynchburg VA: 13 / 10
Bluefield WV: 12 / -1
Blacksburg VA: 15 / -2
Norfolk VA: 24 / -1
Danville VA: 16 / 12
------------------------------------------------- ------
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
138. Mason803
4:13 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
low of 5 here in Cashtown. We had a coating of snow left over that helped chill things down. coldest ctp coop low temp was chandlers valley (northern warren county) with -11. bradford came in with -11 as well.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
137. goofyrider
4:01 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
models will get there ... happy new kid
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2726
136. Pcroton
3:59 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Hit 10F here in Croton. Sitting at 22F presently. Although in town I'm sure it's about 5-7F warmer. Being 465 feet up in elevation sure makes a difference.

Meanwhile my forecast has a 40% chance of snow Saturday night into Sunday but I can't find any model support for this.

Forecast also calls for 38F tomorrow and 48F Friday.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7040
135. Zachary Labe
3:28 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
Low of 10F here last night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
134. TheRasberryPatch
12:18 PM GMT on January 04, 2012
This morning's low is 10.5F. I see the forecast has come around to what Blizz has been saying for some light snow
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
133. MarylandGirl
11:11 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
It is 17 here right now.......wow. Got to see a little bit of the meteror shower....to light here for much. Remote start is a good thing! Stay warm..
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
132. goofyrider
10:57 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
40 N, 74W
Temp 12 F, Winds light and clear skies great viewing conditions for the meteor shower
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2726
131. MariettaMoon
5:09 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
01/01 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Montpelier VT: 33F (t)
Pittsfield MA: 36F*
Williamsport PA: 40F*

12/31 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 56F (t)

12/31 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 46F*

12/28 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
Bangor ME: 52F (t)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
130. MariettaMoon
4:37 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting wunderstorm87:
It's -8F in Bradford already (10pm)! I wonder what their record is?


-15F is the record. I think the temp in Bradford will rise around 2am when the southwest flow begins to kick in.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
129. HeavySnow
4:07 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
I've found 2 inches in Winchester.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
128. HeavySnow
3:57 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

You missed out on a nice squall down your way... I believe towards Warrenton.. Snow accumulations were 1-3in for that surprised area.


I saw that. I'd be surprised if anyone got 3 inches, but you never know. I'll watch the local news, they'll report that for sure.

Pattern change?
Aw come on.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
127. wunderstorm87
3:03 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
It's -8F in Bradford already (10pm)! I wonder what their record is?
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
126. Zachary Labe
2:58 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting HeavySnow:


A few stray flurries and even a couple of snow showers today too. No accumulation though.

You missed out on a nice squall down your way... I believe towards Warrenton.. Snow accumulations were 1-3in for that surprised area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
125. HeavySnow
2:57 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting MarylandGirl:
28 degrees and snowflakes blowing around! Winter has finally come to So MD.
Happy New Year Blizz! Heavy did you get snow?


A few stray flurries and even a couple of snow showers today too. No accumulation though.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
124. originalLT
2:40 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Down to 16.5F now here in Stamford. Baro. 30.08" and rising, Clear otside. Wind NW 3-8mph. Hey MM, maybe later "runs" will bring the low back into the picture! LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
123. PalmyraPunishment
2:32 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
BOOOOO GFS lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
122. MariettaMoon
1:35 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Wow...the 18z GFS 180hr QPF for KMDT is all goose eggs. 0.00".


Scooted that low I was talking about harmlessly out to sea.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
121. wunderstorm87
12:58 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Wow...the 18z GFS 180hr QPF for KMDT is all goose eggs. 0.00".
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
120. Zachary Labe
12:28 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
In the deep freeze. Today's high 18. Had a nice streamer just park itself over us much of the day. Totals range from 2 to 4 in the metro Pittsburgh area. The new AWD Nissan Rogue I bought this past summer got its first spin in true winter conditions. So far, so good.

Well I am glad my forecast of 1-4in verified for the city. Pittsburgh and forecasting lake effect snow is tricky; the bands are very transient typically out your way.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
119. wunderstorm87
12:23 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Temperatures should drop below zero as far south as northern Pennsylvania tonight!

Bradford is already at 0F as of 7pm.

Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
118. pittsburghnurse
12:20 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
In the deep freeze. Today's high 18. Had a nice streamer just park itself over us much of the day. Totals range from 2 to 4 in the metro Pittsburgh area. The new AWD Nissan Rogue I bought this past summer got its first spin in true winter conditions. So far, so good.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
117. Zachary Labe
12:09 AM GMT on January 04, 2012
Temperatures should drop below zero as far south as northern Pennsylvania tonight!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
116. bwi
10:04 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Quoting HeavySnow:


Sheesh, I love snow and cold bwi, but it was and is pretty cold out there. Dare I say, wintry. I just had 2 brief snow showers. No accumulation of course. Certainly an improvement over the last 2 months.


Yes, I'd admit my disappointment was premature -- the wind picked up and the temp is actually falling since I came in this morning.

Washington DC, Reagan National Airport
Lat: 38.86 Lon: -77.03 Elev: 16
Last Update on Jan 3, 4:52 pm EST

Mostly Cloudy and Breezy

28 °F
(-2 °C) Humidity: 26 %
Wind Speed: NW 22 G 35 MPH
Barometer: 30.14" (1020.7 mb)
Dewpoint: -3 °F (-19 °C)
Wind Chill: 14 °F (-10 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
115. PhillySnow
9:02 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
26F and it feels good! Two tiny snow showers this morning. I'm off to Florida - might as well enjoy some real warmth instead of this ongoing in-between. I'm hoping to come back to a real winter. Probably won't post for a bit, but I'll keep an eye on the blog to see if there's anything happening. Or, if I can figure out how to upload a photo, I'll send an enticing shot of the tropics!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
114. MarylandGirl
8:57 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
28 degrees and snowflakes blowing around! Winter has finally come to So MD.
Happy New Year Blizz! Heavy did you get snow?
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
113. Zachary Labe
8:24 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Missed all of the snow showers here today in Linglestown. I was down around the Hershey area and there was a coating of snow this morning around there.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
112. PalmyraPunishment
7:40 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Pattern buster?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
111. MariettaMoon
6:58 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
12Z ECMFW, 12Z GFS, and 12Z CMC hinting at a chance of some snow 5 days out around Sunday the 8th.

For the 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC, weak low pressure (1010 - 1012 mb) moves from somewhere between central Virginia and north central North Carolina to the Del-Mar-Va coast where it strengthens slightly (1010 mb - 1002 mb) and moves east/northeast to just east of benchmark.

Weak to moderate high pressure (1012 mb - 1028 mb) to the north/northwest over Ontario and Quebec helps to provide a little cold air and moves east/northeast parallel to the low.

The lack of a Greenland block allows the low to scoot quickly off to the east/northeast.

If all things come together this way, there would be a 200 mile wide swath of light to moderate snowfall (1"-6") accumulations located somewhere from the mountains to the coast from Virginia to Maine.

The 12Z ECMFW has that low positioned over central Maryland where it moves east to the Jersey shore, where it then undergoes a more rapid deepening from 1008mb at New Jersey, passing just inside benchmark, strengthening to about 990mb just off the extreme eastern coast of Maine.

This solution would provide a light to moderate snowfall for the mountains of WV-MD-PA, to a heavy snowfall from southeastern interior NY to northern CT, northern RI, MA northwest of the Cape, southern VT, southern NH and east/southeast ME.

I side closest to the GFS/CMC camp at the moment.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
110. TheF1Man
6:05 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Happy New Year everyone! Haven't seen a single flake since I've been home and it doesn't look like anything will fall before I go back either.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
109. HeavySnow
5:55 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Quoting bwi:
I bundled up for arctic gales this morning, but it was just a typical breezy and slightly-colder-than-normal January morning in DC. Oh well, maybe winter will come eventually...


Sheesh, I love snow and cold bwi, but it was and is pretty cold out there. Dare I say, wintry. I just had 2 brief snow showers. No accumulation of course. Certainly an improvement over the last 2 months.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
108. bwi
4:33 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
I bundled up for arctic gales this morning, but it was just a typical breezy and slightly-colder-than-normal January morning in DC. Oh well, maybe winter will come eventually...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
107. testbenchdude
2:38 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Getting a trace of snow here in West Chester. Very nice.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
106. Mason803
2:23 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
got another 0.1" from the franklin county band. brings me up to 0.4". band has shifted south of me toward fairfield
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
105. TheRasberryPatch
1:23 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
A snow shower here as well.

LVT - at least it seems mostly flat, your sleigh ride road
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
104. Zachary Labe
1:23 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
No snow here last night. The bands have not oriented favorably here, but Altoona down through northern Franklin county received a surprise 2-4in last night in that band, which continues to produce this morning. A small vortex will move through this morning enhancing bands once again and realigning them, before they weaken for good by late afternoon. A clipper on Wednesday will give way to widespread light snows from the Mason-Dixon line. A coating to 1in is possible in many locations.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
103. PhillySnow
1:04 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
We had a little snow shower just now. Exciting for the moment, but lasted only around 5 minutes.

Thanks for the photos, Listener!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
102. PalmyraPunishment
12:03 PM GMT on January 03, 2012
Cold morning out there. Saw a bunch of pictures from my friends/family up in the Huntingdon area and some nice dusting-1 inch type of accumulations up there so far. Hoping to see a snow shower or two down here.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
101. wunderstorm87
11:35 AM GMT on January 03, 2012
It looks like the bands are finally trying to set up. The most intense streamer seems to be setting up from Altoona to just north of Gettysburg, though I'm sure its position will change as the day goes on. That streamer was so intense that a school district in northern Franklin county has a delay.

I just wanted to point out some of the wind chills (based on max gusts) at 6am in PA:
Bradford: -20F
Johnstown: -18F
Altoona: -1F
Pittsburgh: -1F
Middletown: 3F
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
100. Mason803
10:59 AM GMT on January 03, 2012
got my snow shower. 0.3" so far. plow just went by
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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