The Northeast Weather Blog...

Colder Unsettled Weather Ahead...

Posted by: Zachary Labe, 4:40 PM GMT on December 27, 2011

"Current Temperature"

"Current Dewpoint"

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

"Regional Radar"

"Regional Satellite"

"Regional Advisories"

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

"12hr Estimated Precipitation"

"Forecast Max Temperatures"

"Forecast Min Temperature"

"Forecast Weather at 2pm"

"Current Storm Reports"

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Seasonal Total- 5.9in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 31F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow

Categories: Observation Blogs

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1 - 51

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 — Blog Index

1. Zachary Labe 4:41 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
I just cannot find enough to talk about winter weather wise for a full blog. For now I am just going to post an observation blog. Member Since:* December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

2. originalLT 4:46 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Blizz, sounds like "frustration" is setting in!! Things can change, maybe the second half of the winter will be better-- a negative NAO and positive PNA! Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5067

3. listenerVT 4:48 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: I just cannot find enough to talk about winter weather wise for a full blog. For now I am just going to post an observation blog. Sounds like a plan. After all, we'd have nothing to talk about without observations! It's dripping here. The 4" of snow we got over the last half week is melting off slowly today. It is said that we'll have dribs and drabs of snow over the coming week, so I'm just hoping we get to keep a light covering of snow, at least, so things stay brightened up. We'll see. This season has been easier on the birds and beasts. Have there been any unusual sightings? For example, we saw a pair of Bluebirds in Kennebunk, Maine on the 17th & 18th of December! Highly unusual. Member Since:* July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4792

4. bwi 4:55 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Thanks Blizz. The soil moisture graph doesn't seem to be updating. I saw MD in the dry anomaly color and went Huh? We're drowning down here. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

5. PalmyraPunishment 4:57 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
lol, the airport. Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

6. Zachary Labe 5:05 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
12z GFS is horrible, once again no snow through 16 days for the entire Middle Atlantic and much of New England. A few weak clippers coming though towards New Years and may allow for a bit of light snow. But along and south of I-80 look too warm. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

7. Zachary Labe 5:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
The best chance of any wintry precipitation will be in the January 3-5 timeframe. But without blocking, wintry precipitation in many areas is not likely. But for those of us inland including the LSV, we have a bit more leeway and sometimes setups like this are semi-favorable. Here is the 12z GGEM for next week... Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

8. PalmyraPunishment 6:44 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
The asterisk overlord strikes again. lol. wxrisk.com %u200E* ALERT * ALERT the 12z CMC model has turned DRAMATICALLY to the European Model solution of a MAJOR EAST COAST Low JAN 3-4.. and away from the GFS Model which STILL shows NO BIG east coast Low... this shift of a model from NO Big east coast Low to BIG Low... is SIGNIFICANT Just posted for discussional purposes which range from informative to comedic, depending on the source. edit: immediately after submitting this post, I realized that "discussional" is not a word but I refuse to edit that. if Jesse Jackson gets to make up words, then so do I. edit edit: more from asterisk man... %u200E* ALERT * ALERT * 12Z Tuesday brand new European develops MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM JAN 3-4..... the Model if ..IF.. you take the Model Verbatim it does shows SIGNIFICANT snow over western and central NC VA much of MD and into the I-95 Cities .... Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

9. johnbluedog69 7:20 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment: The asterisk overlord strikes again. lol. wxrisk.com %u200E* ALERT * ALERT the 12z CMC model has turned DRAMATICALLY to the European Model solution of a MAJOR EAST COAST Low JAN 3-4.. and away from the GFS Model which STILL shows NO BIG east coast Low... this shift of a model from NO Big east coast Low to BIG Low... is SIGNIFICANT Just posted for discussional purposes which range from informative to comedic, depending on the source. edit: immediately after submitting this post, I realized that "discussional" is not a word but I refuse to edit that. if Jesse Jackson gets to make up words, then so do I. edit edit: more from asterisk man... %u200E* ALERT * ALERT * 12Z Tuesday brand new European develops MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM JAN 3-4..... the Model if ..IF.. you take the Model Verbatim it does shows SIGNIFICANT snow over western and central NC VA much of MD and into the I-95 Cities .... And those of us in southern delaware will naturally get rain again:(((( Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 372

10. Zachary Labe 7:47 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
There is probably going to be a storm in that time frame given the steep trough and the models indicating that a front stalls around the coast and kinks back. But given the terrible Atlantic regime, it is going to be luck to get snow to the coast and along I-95. The more inland, the better chance probably. It would not even take much to send the snow area back to southeast Canada. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

11. bwi 7:58 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Looks like a quick-moving band of heavy rain headed for DC soon. Hopefully winds will shift to the west and will dry out for the evening commute! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

12. Zachary Labe 8:01 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting bwi: Looks like a quick-moving band of heavy rain headed for DC soon. Hopefully winds will shift to the west and will dry out for the evening commute! Storm is about 6 hours ahead of current guidance and will quickly end from west to east late afternoon into early evening. Nice round of upslope snow for a bit (12 hours) should allow western Maryland up through the Laurel Highlands to get a nice 3-6in of fluffy snow. It should help the ski resorts. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

13. Zachary Labe 8:11 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
The differences between the GFS and ECMWF at that range are absolutely pathetic... Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

14. Drakoen 8:19 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Storm in an ideal position 180-192 hours out is suspect to large variations. The ECMWF has shown some big storms only to drop them in later runs. I do like the wave the 500mb longwave pattern look though. The ECMWF showing a large trough in the east and a large ridge in the west. The teleconnections show the NAO heading neutral and the AO heading sharply neutral after having been fairly positive recently. The ECMWF and its ensemble members show a fairly strong positive PNA whereas the GFS and its ensemble members are not as dramatic which probably accounts for the discrepancies between these two models. The image below gives you an idea of the differences in the 500mb longwave pattern on those models Figure 1. ECMWF (left) and GFS (right) 500mb longwave means. Figure 2. Model PNA forecasts Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

15. Zachary Labe 8:31 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Drakoen- Nice post. The amplitude of the ridge is definitely perking my interest a bit, but otherwise the ECMWF has showed many of these fantasy snows this season. The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean shows a bit of kinking along the isobars with probably a few members indicating a storm system along the coast. This is the best setup since the October storm, but that is not saying much. Without any blocking, this easily could shoot up inland. I do think the GFS is a bit too progressive and therefore there is a pretty high likelihood of a storm system of some sort. HPC seems a bit antsy, lol... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 230 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 30 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 A QUIET RATHER MILD PATTERN MOST PLACES THRU THE WEEKEND. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. DETAILS QUITE SKETCHY... Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

16. HeavySnow 8:31 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Nice job hacking the Euro Palmyra. That's right, put it back, put winter back where it belongs. You don't have to be gentle, just put it back! Amnesty for the theft of winter has almost run out. The time is nigh! Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2918

17. Zachary Labe 8:33 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting HeavySnow: Nice job hacking the Euro Palmyra. That's right, put it back, put winter back where it belongs. You don't have to be gentle, just put it back! Amnesty for the theft of winter has almost run out. The time is nigh! For some pure amusement... today's 12z ECMWF prints out just a tad under 2ft of snow for your area, hahahah. If only... Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

18. PalmyraPunishment 8:47 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

19. Zachary Labe 8:50 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment: :/ haha. Ugh, why bother going to the trouble to make a map. That EURO output will change nearly 100x before next week. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

20. Drakoen 8:53 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Euro ensembles 12z 500mb longwave Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

21. Zachary Labe 8:56 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Phases 5-8? Let's hope... Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

22. PalmyraPunishment 9:00 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
If that remains by 12z tomorrow, color me shocked. Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

23. Drakoen 9:01 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
MJO models Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

24. TheRasberryPatch 9:35 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
what a lousy miserably cold and rainy day today. I am over 1" of rain for the day. The rain started after 10am. UGH. It's a shame there weren't any bowl games on earlier. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5645

25. crowe1 10:10 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Got some mod/hvy, rain/sleet bands moving over now. Broadalbin,NY Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 914

26. crowe1 10:12 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Son just got home, roads getting BAD! Temp hovering around freezing. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 914

27. bwi 11:46 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
I was dreading it, but it turned out to be fantastic weather for tonight's commute. Soggy but great. Perfect timing of a wind shift, and an awesome sunset with setting sun on the horizon under the cloud deck as the front or dry line moved through. Combined with hitting the green on all but two red lights, I made it home in 65 minutes. Had a blistering southerly tailwind for the northbound trail sections, and then what seemed like a windshift to W for last couple miles where I go mostly west to east. Despite the heavy rain, my bike computer says I averaged nearly 15.5mph net over the almost 17 mile ride. I'm sure I beat a lot of drivers, since DC area traffic is always horrible when it rains! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

28. goofyrider 12:03 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
40 N, 74E Winds out of SE G25-30, light rain low 50's Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1892

29. bwi 12:17 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
18z GFS mega storm it looks like. But instead of the Jan 3-5 period, it's Sunday Jan 8th! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

30. PalmyraPunishment 12:30 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
SUNDAY! SUNDAY! SUNDAY! Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

31. Zachary Labe 1:05 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
hahaha oh the GFS. Gosh now the people will start hyping the 8th. What a joke. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

32. Zachary Labe 1:11 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
*Well I just finished the task of categorizing all of my past blogs. All of my past blogs since December 2007 have now been archived and organized by general categories. See the left side of the screen for the link on my blog. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments:** 14316

33. weathergeek5 1:15 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
One thing with this weather I love tracking weather period. If there is no snow I am bothered some it is the way that things go some times. I saw you post Blizz on a certain fan club with the voice of reason and you were shot down due to not wishcasting a storm. Between 1966-1978 there were no snow storms in the Delaware valley above 7 to 8 inches. Does anyone remember the winters between 1968-1974? Snow was scare. I am sorry if those winters are bringing back bad memories of no snow. When you get a minute could you look up the totals from 1967-1977 to see how much Harrisburg got those years? What would happen if those lean years returned?? Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

34. MariettaMoon 1:20 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Wow, was driving in Hamilton NJ around 7:45pm when that last line swept through. Before the line hit, it was windy but nothing was falling, I though the storm was over. Then BAM! ran into a freakin wall of water. Never saw it coming. It was a lot like when a car from the other lane hits a huge puddle and it hits your windshield and scares the living crap out of you! I've done tons of driving all over the country in all sorts of weather but have never experienced going from dry to complete blindness in the snap of a finger. That was downright dangerous. I shot up to 58F at 7:45pm just before that last line here in Hamilton NJ. Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676

35. TheRasberryPatch 1:27 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Quoting weathergeek5: One thing with this weather I love tracking weather period. If there is no snow I am bothered some it is the way that things go some times. I saw you post Blizz on a certain fan club with the voice of reason and you were shot down due to not wishcasting a storm. Between 1966-1978 there were no snow storms in the Delaware valley above 7 to 8 inches. Does anyone remember the winters between 1968-1974? Snow was scare. I am sorry if those winters are bringing back bad memories of no snow. When you get a minute could you look up the totals from 1967-1977 to see how much Harrisburg got those years? What would happen if those lean years returned?? If you look at my past posts the past couple of weeks and even in past years I bring up very similar scenarios growing up in northern suburbs of Baltimore. I recall from mid 70's through the 80's snow was scarce for the most part. We had a couple of big 20" plus storms, but that's about it. I think one was '79 and the other '83. Both around Valentines Day. Everyone is going to say I sound like a broken record, but most Christmas and New Years were brown and either cold or rainy. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5645

36. weathergeek5 1:31 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch: If you look at my past posts the past couple of weeks and even in past years I bring up very similar scenarios growing up in northern suburbs of Baltimore. I recall from mid 70's through the 80's snow was scarce for the most part. We had a couple of big 20" plus storms, but that's about it. I think one was '79 and the other '83. Both around Valentines Day. Everyone is going to say I sound like a broken record, but most Christmas and New Years were brown and either cold or rainy. I remember the Blizzard of 1983 and faintly the Blizzard of 1978 I was 3 1/2 - 4 years old then. For the winter of 1973-1973 Philadelphia got a trace of snow the whole winter. So you know that this happens. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

37. Zachary Labe 1:34 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

38. pittsburghnurse 1:38 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
PP, give me back my snow. I am asking nicely. Please I'd like to have it back now. It was supposed to be here but it's not. Sunday... promises, promises! Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 638

39. originalLT 1:40 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
The blizzard of '78 was some storm!, it was well forecasted as I recall, not so with the 1983 storm. Both storms were around 20". I lived in New Rochelle NY. at that time. I believe the 1978 storm covered a greater area. I guess MM could tell us since he got that great book for Christmas. Here by me , with this current rain storm, just had a wind gust out of the SSE at 36mph. Baro is down to 29.29". I will go outside and check my rain guage after it stops raining, in an hour or so. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5067

40. weathergeek5 2:11 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: do you have one for Harrisburg? Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

41. Zachary Labe 2:17 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Quoting weathergeek5: do you have one for Harrisburg? Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

42. weathergeek5 2:26 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: So it seems like a majority of those years it was BELOW average. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

43. originalLT 2:27 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Interesting graph Blizz, seeing the lowest total, 9" right between two "Mega" years! Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5067

44. weathergeek5 2:27 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Thanks for both Charts. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

45. originalLT 2:30 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
You are right weathergeek5. Those big years bring up the "average", other wise it is often below average. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5067

46. HeavySnow 2:31 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Quoting bwi: I was dreading it, but it turned out to be fantastic weather for tonight's commute. Soggy but great. Perfect timing of a wind shift, and an awesome sunset with setting sun on the horizon under the cloud deck as the front or dry line moved through. Combined with hitting the green on all but two red lights, I made it home in 65 minutes. Had a blistering southerly tailwind for the northbound trail sections, and then what seemed like a windshift to W for last couple miles where I go mostly west to east. Despite the heavy rain, my bike computer says I averaged nearly 15.5mph net over the almost 17 mile ride. I'm sure I beat a lot of drivers, since DC area traffic is always horrible when it rains! I was driving back to work in Springfield at that time and the sky was amazing. The sun under the cloud deck was so beautiful that I was trying to take a picture with my blackberry when 180 degrees over was now the most incredible rainbow I have ever seen. The full side to side double rainbow. Wow! It lasted right until sunset, about 15 minutes, and progressed to another sweet sight, the crescent moon and Venus alone in the sunset. Now about that 2 feet of snow. It's a'comin'! Finally. Maybe, at least we have something to look at. For now. Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2918

47. Zachary Labe 2:34 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
That's why I hate the concept of comparing numerical values to averages. An average is nothing more than the mean of two extremes; so why compare? Seems silly to me; I think I ranted in an afternoon thought section on one of my blogs before, lol. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14316

48. shoreacres 2:35 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Well, gosh - the whole gang is here! Just stopping by to wish all of you a happy New Year - and some SNOW! I think Amarillo's had more snow than some of you, so far. One of my cousin's kids got stuck somewhere in New Mexico, trying to get home for Christmas. The last I heard, they were on the road again, and cussing like crazy. They would have been happy with dry and brown. Down here in Texas, we're still hoping for a repeat of the 2004 "Christmas Miracle", when they were building snowmen on Galveston Island. I do believe that was the single best snow of my life - hope you get yours soon! Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14800

49. originalLT 2:41 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Yes you did "Rant" on one of your blogs about that Blizz! But it's still interesting to see, thanks for posting. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5067

50. HeavySnow 2:56 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
oops Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2918

51. HeavySnow 3:00 AM GMT on December 28, 2011
Link This should be video of the rainbow. Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2918

Viewing: 1 - 51

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Tropical Blogs

Tropical Weather Stickers®

Contact This Author

Local Weather

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

58 °F

Partly Cloudy

Detailed Conditions & Forecast

Recent Photos

Blizzard92's Wunder Photos

Previous Entries for 2013

Linglestown, PA
Elevation:	520 ft
Temperature:	56.2 °F
Dew Point:	35.7 °F
Humidity:	46%
Wind:	Calm
Wind Gust:	4.0 mph
Updated: 10:12 PM EDT on May 25, 2013 Station History