Unsettled Week Ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:52 PM GMT on December 21, 2011

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"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.3in
Seasonal Total- 5.8in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 39F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 148 - 98

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148. Zachary Labe
4:20 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
With little blocking next week, it will be difficult to prevent a storm from cutting inland.

Quoting originalLT:
Wow, Blizz, looks like some very strong ehcos to your WSW, maybe some sleet involved in those echos.

A few reports of sleet and a rain/snow mix at higher elevations being reported.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
147. TheRasberryPatch
4:14 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting goofyrider:
Wet and cold end to 2011.






Story of most of my life...wet and cold New Years Eve or bitterly cold with no snow. The only big storm I can recall near New Years Eve was Dec. 30th, 2000 that missed from Philly south and west.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
146. originalLT
4:06 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Wow, Blizz, looks like some very strong ehcos to your WSW, maybe some sleet involved in those echos.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7593
145. Zachary Labe
4:04 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
That trough is really digging deep into the south. I can't tell the timeframe on that model. Would that be a timeframe of Tuesday?

Yep... Tuesday/Wednesday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
144. PalmyraPunishment
3:57 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Sorry guys, I saw PittsburghNurse's bragging about snow and got fed up. I hacked the Euro. My bad.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
143. goofyrider
3:44 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Belated Merry Christmas to all:

This time last year we were hip deep in snow.

It is sad when the best snowfall for your winter occurred in OCT., and it wasn't enough to coat the grass. This next low looks to track up the east side of the highlands. Wet and cold end to 2011.




Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2788
142. TheRasberryPatch
3:36 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
That trough is really digging deep into the south. I can't tell the timeframe on that model. Would that be a timeframe of Tuesday?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
141. pittsburghnurse
3:21 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


SHUT UP!


My my, someone needs some snow. I'm willing to share.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
140. Zachary Labe
2:27 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Did someone on this blog hack the ECMWF model data last night, hahahaha
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
139. johnbluedog69
2:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Did somebody say mega snowstorm for the mid-atlantic???????? I believe, I believe:))
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
138. Zachary Labe
2:11 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Well get ready for the hype train to pull out of the station. 0z ECMWF showed the first mega fantasy east coast snowstorm in the long range with a mega trough. GFS much more flatter and progressive. This would be for early next week. Way too early to begin to speculate, but that won't stop people from hyping it up.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
137. MariettaMoon
1:52 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
...CARIBOU SETS ALL-TIME ANNUAL PRECIPITATION RECORD...

WITH THE 0.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THAT FELL WITH THE LATEST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT...CARIBOU HAS NOW BROKEN THE ALL-TIME ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION RECORD. THE OLD RECORD WAS 54.25 INCHES IN
2005...AND CARIBOU NOW HAS 54.32 INCHES AS OF THE AFTERNOON OF
DECEMBER 22.

THE PRECIPITATION RECORD WAS THANKS TO THE EXTREMELY WET SUMMER.
THIS SUMMER WAS THE WETTEST ON RECORD FOR CARIBOU...AND THE MONTHS
OF JUNE AND JULY SET MONTHLY RECORDS AS WELL.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
136. TheRasberryPatch
1:46 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Thanks for the post Walshy. Very interesting.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
135. MariettaMoon
1:36 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
US Snowfall Departures Map:
Link
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
134. Walshy
1:03 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012

...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST
OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY
SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE
TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A
SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP
CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING
TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A
BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A
40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS
SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

ROTH
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
133. Walshy
9:36 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
First frozen precip this winter here just east of the mountains in North Carolina! :)

Heavy Sleet/Rain for about 20mins then went to all rain. A few freezing rain advisories just got issued though to my south-west for higher elevations. Accumulating snows look to hold off until tonight above 3,500ft.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
132. PalmyraPunishment
4:03 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Well, finally snow in our forecast with measurable accumulation. Expecting 1" to 2" between tomorrow evening and Wednesday noonish.


SHUT UP!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
131. HeavySnow
3:04 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting weathergeek5:


I cannot confirm nor deny those allegations.


Okay, you're trying to throw me off as is The F1Man. The trail is warm and that may be the problem...

We're right outside your door... Let winter out.
Liver and fava beans anyone?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
130. weathergeek5
2:54 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting HeavySnow:
It's true RP. My crappy untended roses from the previous owners are blooming now more than they do in spring and summer.

Okay I'll ask you folks even though I'm sure I know the answer, did one of you take winter? Are you hiding it in a giant hole in your unfinished basement? Taunting it with your little dog in your arms as you lower it a low protein mush in a bucket, keeping poor winter barely alive. Keeping winter all to yourself you SICK #@$%!@#@@#*$#@!!!!


I cannot confirm nor deny those allegations.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
129. pittsburghnurse
2:31 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
Well, finally snow in our forecast with measurable accumulation. Expecting 1" to 2" between tomorrow evening and Wednesday noonish.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
128. PhillySnow
1:08 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
Great to have some time on my hands with the holidays! Here's a haiku-like poem:

Sunny and beautiful today.
Flood watch tomorrow.
Christmas lights are confused.

Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1235
127. TheF1Man
1:02 AM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting HeavySnow:
It's true RP. My crappy untended roses from the previous owners are blooming now more than they do in spring and summer.

Okay I'll ask you folks even though I'm sure I know the answer, did one of you take winter? Are you hiding it in a giant hole in your unfinished basement? Taunting it with your little dog in your arms as you lower it a low protein mush in a bucket, keeping poor winter barely alive. Keeping winter all to yourself you SICK #@$%!@#@@#*$#@!!!!


So you know the answer is yes right? That someone here took it...who's been quiet lately?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
126. Zachary Labe
11:31 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
I was up along a drive near Black Moshannon State Park today up through Centre County. Elevations are about 2300ft in some parts along that state route and is typically one of the coldest spots in Pennsylvania. Sadly there was only a dusting of snow (probably .25in). Any normal winter would easily have 12-18in in snow depth; great lake effect area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
125. HeavySnow
11:21 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
It's true RP. My crappy untended roses from the previous owners are blooming now more than they do in spring and summer.

Okay I'll ask you folks even though I'm sure I know the answer, did one of you take winter? Are you hiding it in a giant hole in your unfinished basement? Taunting it with your little dog in your arms as you lower it a low protein mush in a bucket, keeping poor winter barely alive. Keeping winter all to yourself you SICK #@$%!@#@@#*$#@!!!!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
124. TheRasberryPatch
10:28 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
I was at my Mother's yesterday in Towson, MD and she had at least 10 beautiful blooms from her rosebush. I don't think I have seen that before at Christmas
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
123. HeavySnow
9:27 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
Quoting shipweather:
we. need. a. patter. change.


Do you mean we should talk about something else?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
122. shipweather
4:56 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
we. need. a. patter. change.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
121. originalLT
4:41 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
Sounds like all had a very good Christmas, glad to hear that. MM , that terrible fire in my city took place about 4 miles from me, near the water--, the Long Island Sound. They still don't know why it started, but are guessing electrical problems-- the house was being renovated while the people were still living in it.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7593
120. TheRasberryPatch
3:51 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
I see they have accumulating snow coming into SW Michigan for the next day. Hopefully, the pattern will start to change.

Blizz - how will you use the thermometer? The winds are brisk today.

I see we have chances of rain the next week. If this isn't typical of the Mid-Atlantic. One year we will have chances of snow from Christmas to New Years.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
119. baxtheweatherman
3:20 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
baxtheweatherman...where are you? Am I allowed yet to say it's (still) snowing here in NW VT? (We still only have a couple of inches, as it's been a very light snow.)


opps, sorry- I'm just south of Altoona.
Member Since: December 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
118. Zachary Labe
2:58 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
Thanks all for the Christmas wishes and comments; means a lot! Hope everyone had a wonderful holiday! Only one weather gift for me this year, lol, an infrared handheld thermometer.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
117. MariettaMoon
2:46 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
Got "Northeast Snowstorms" for Christmas!

LT: Heard about that crazy fire in Stamford. How close are you to that?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
116. listenerVT
6:14 AM GMT on December 26, 2011
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
It's a glorious sunny Christmas morning complete with singing birds and a hard coating of frost here in the Burgh. Wishing all of you a very Merry Christmas and ListenerVT, it certainly is a very special one for you. A hearty congratulations!


Awww, thanks, Pittsburghnurse!! ♥


baxtheweatherman...where are you? Am I allowed yet to say it's (still) snowing here in NW VT? (We still only have a couple of inches, as it's been a very light snow.)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
115. baxtheweatherman
2:59 AM GMT on December 26, 2011
It's snowing at my house! Yay! Driveway is turning white. (I predict a foot of snow for Easter, lol).
Member Since: December 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
114. PhillySnow
12:51 AM GMT on December 26, 2011
I thought of you all playing disc golf in totally comfortable weather today; not a drop of white or ice anywhere. Thanks for doing the forecasts and keeping the blog active, Blizz. And well said, TRP. Ditto!!

Merry Christmas, everyone!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1235
113. bionicdan
8:09 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Joyfull Joyfull, Orpheus from a photo taken during 2010 -- but it is one of my favorites!
Member Since: December 30, 2002 Posts: 97 Comments: 533
112. NYCvort
5:42 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Merry Christmas Blizz and everyone!
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 144
111. shipweather
2:48 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Merry Christmas everyone!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
110. weathergeek5
1:52 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Merry Christmas everyone!!
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
109. wunderstorm87
1:48 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Merry Christmas to everyone here!

It looks like we may have a legitimate threat of rain turning to snow and accumulating in many areas Tuesday night.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
108. baxtheweatherman
1:47 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Merry Christmas Everyone!
Member Since: December 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
107. pittsburghnurse
1:45 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
It's a glorious sunny Christmas morning complete with singing birds and a hard coating of frost here in the Burgh. Wishing all of you a very Merry Christmas and ListenerVT, it certainly is a very special one for you. A hearty congratulations!
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
106. TheF1Man
1:42 PM GMT on December 25, 2011
Merry Christmas Everyone and what a nice post RP. Blizz we all do really appreciate all the work you put into the posts. Hope you get more today than a tuition bill like i did last year! Yes it was joke by my parents lol.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
105. MarylandGirl
9:18 AM GMT on December 25, 2011
MERRY CHRISTMAS to Blizz and the crew. Not looking real good for snow here in SOMD this winter if I read all these posts correctly! Not even much in Maine right now.........Have a wonderful (if snowless) day!
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
104. listenerVT
8:14 AM GMT on December 25, 2011
(If this works...here's a photo...)



....didn't work
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
103. listenerVT
8:12 AM GMT on December 25, 2011
M E R R Y * C H R I S T M A S !

Our very special new grandniece was born on Christmas Eve morning! She's special because her Mama had leukemia in high school requiring a bone marrow transplant, which makes a person sterile. But Mama's big sister donated the egg, so Mama gave birth to a healthy little one named Mia Charlotte. Moreover, Mama and her big sister have a dad whose pancreatic cancer is now in remission, and a mom who is a chair of Make-a-Wish.

Christmas Eve Day was blue-sky-clear here and incredibly cold! It was only 2 degrees when we left for midnight mass tonight! Brrr! The bit of snow we got has, therefore, stayed.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
102. HeavySnow
6:23 AM GMT on December 25, 2011
I second that and Amen RP!!! Merry Green/Brown Christmas snow lovers.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
101. TheRasberryPatch
1:28 AM GMT on December 25, 2011
Blizz - thanks for stopping by and the wishes.

A MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. You are such a great person with incredible thoughts. I wish nothing but the best for you for years to come. It is great having this blog to post and to interact. Even though we have never met, I consider you a friend.


MERRY CHRISTMAS TO EVERYONE ON BLIZZ'S BLOG. I really enjoy reading the posts and all the hardwork that everyone puts into the posts. May we all get along and enjoy posting here.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
100. dragonflyF15
10:15 PM GMT on December 24, 2011
Photobucket
Member Since: February 13, 2006 Posts: 194 Comments: 2152
99. wxgeek723
7:31 PM GMT on December 24, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

I do not think we will ever see this much rain in one year in southern Pennsylvania in our lifetimes; what a rare event! After Christmas I would like to put together a research blog focused on the rainfall here in the LSV this year.


Knock on some wood buddy.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3588
98. BaltimoreBrian
7:01 PM GMT on December 24, 2011
Merry Christmas Blizzard92. You run a really good blog.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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