White Christmas???

By: Zachary Labe , 2:01 PM GMT on December 13, 2011

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 12/13)
I have 1161 friends. Yes you heard me... 1161 friends.

Okay, only Facebook Friends. In this age of 'to the second media' updates, social media has exploded and is popular daily conversation. From status updates to looking at one's latest vacation pictures, our lives have become public. While Facebook surely can be argued for many benefits from rekindling past friendships to strengthening long distance family bonds, there are also plenty of consequences of such social media.

I certainly do not know all 1161 of my Facebook friends personally, in fact only a small margin of them would actual be considered a real friend. Social media has radically altered the definition of a 'friend.' Instead of a few birthday cards from close friends, we now receive hundreds of 'happy birthday' messages. Or instead of sharing photographs from one's wedding, they are now shared with the world. We have published our lives on the internet to the point where one must constantly worry what is being put as a status or picture.

A Facebook friend does not satisfy a real friendship built on trust and social interaction. And now we have reached a point where even a phone call is just too much hassle from our daily routine.

There is no reason to share every detail of our private lives with the entire world. There is no reason to replace a Facebook friend with a real Friend. Social media has opened many doors with many benefits, but it has replaced the simplest of concepts. A friend.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Updated 12/13)
A deepening surface low moving up through the Great Lakes will be the primary weather story for much of this week. A southerly flow aloft ahead of the digging energy in the southern Mississippi Valley will allow high temperatures to rise to above normal values during the day Tuesday with sunshine courtesy of an anticyclonic flow. High pressure will shift to off the coast of Maine as a low pressure in the Midwest gathers strength. Warm air advection aloft will allow for light precipitation to form along a boundary across the northern Middle Atlantic by Wednesday evening. Given the timing over the night time hours, some light freezing rain is likely over the colder valleys of Pennsylvania and New York state. Amounts will generally be minimal and less than .1in. H85s will rise to above 5C with little to no snow/sleet expected. A screaming southernly low level jet will enhance precipitation by early Thursday morning from the Middle Atlantic to New England. The departing cold air mass will allow for some light frozen precipitation over northern New England with snow/sleet amounts from 1-3in over northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and Maine. But even those locations will transition to rain given the strength of the LLJ. Strong southerly winds are also likely across the higher elevations and may reach advisory criteria as gusts approach 40-45mph above 1800ft. Surface maps continue to indicate a high pressure gradient as the high slowly departs northeast. The heaviest QPF will fall in the right front entrance of the LLJ across New York state with up to 1in of rain expected. Lighter amounts are likely along the rest of the cold front generally ranging from .25-.5in of rain. As the low deepens to sub 992mb over Ontario, the cold front will quickly move through the Northeast with falling temperatures and cold air advection. H85s will drop below 0C with residual snow flurries and snow showers likely from lake effect. Increasing dry air will likely prevent widespread lake effect streamers from forming. See more in discussion below.

High pressure over much of the contigous United States will allow for a dry and clear weatherwise few days by Friday under a seasonably cold air mass. Temperatures will generally be near normal for the time being. A weak wave will move to the south of the Middle Atlantic late Friday into Saturday with only light cirrus expected across the Maryland and Washington DC region. All in all low chances for wintry precipitation except for slight chance of freezing rain and frozen precipitation for northern New England midweek and some light snow from the lake effect machine across the snowbelts on Thursday/Friday.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 12/13)
For those tracking the potential lake effect snow event this past week around December 10, it was pretty much a dud. Limited instability was available given only a 8C differential between air and water. Due to above normal SST across Lake Erie and Ontario, it had appeared that lake effect snow bands would develop none the less across the region under first a 250 degree flow shifting to 290. This would allow two streamers to form across upstate New York across the Oswego to Watertown area and through the Buffalo metro area up to Niagra Falls. A shortwave also moved through during this period enhancing light synoptic snow across western New York, although amounts were generally a dusting. Low instability and other poor parameters prevented the expected heavy streamer from forming particularily off Lake Erie. A weak band formed during the diurnal period, but given 2m temperatures in the mid 30s, many areas only received a rain/snow mix. The band generally stayed north of the Buffalo metro with amounts around 4-5in towards Niagra with only an inch at the Buffalo airport. As the flow began to shift more westerly, the band off Erie dropped back south across the metro with an additional inch or so. This was well below the expected 5-9in of warning criteria snow forecast.

The following 24 hours allowed for a more west-northwest flow with the Erie band settling over towards the Chatauqua Ridge and Jamestown region with areas receiving a fresh 6in of snow or so. The band off Ontario was a bit more intense with 1-2in/hr snow rates. It generally remained north of the Oswego area with amounts up to 12in reported in the Tug Hill. Both bands began to die Saturday night as drier air from an area of subsidence began to lift northward shearing apart the snow bands.

There is a very low threat of significant lake effect snow this week even given the expected cyclonic flow post great lakes cutter. H85s will drop from above 0C to around -10C after the cold front passes through with winds shifting to around 300 degrees. There will be a great deal of dry air and a slight CAP preventing organized streamers from forming. A few snow bands are likely to still form, but only advisory amounts or less are likely for most all locations. It appears most of the lake effect snow diurnal activity will be limited to New York state given an area of subsidence over Pennsylvania. The more northerly flow may allow a few areas to see some light snow accumulation across western New York where this is a significant snow drought especially across much of the Finger Lakes region. By late Friday, dry air and low level shear will cutoff the lake effect snow machine with a quiet weekend weatherwise.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Link to official river ice reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 12/13)
A slow pattern change is now evident on most teleconnection indices. A SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event is now slowly ongoing on the Asian side of the Arctic. The statosphere is close relately the AO and position of the PV. Over the last few months, the statosphere has recorded near record cold mean temperatures, but signs of a slow warming trend on now ongoing. This may lend hand to an excellent January for winter lovers if all goes as planned. The SSW will likely relax the positive anomalous arctic oscillation and help to slowly reposition the polar vortex, which appears to be slowly moving towards the Atlantic. This will hopefully begin to open the floodgates to the Arctic by late in December. Current ensemble guidance supports the heart of the cold air centered around Christmas day give or take.

The current seven day mild period we are in for the time being was my outlined mild period in mid December. The pattern is very hostile and serves little to no potential for snowfall over the next 7 days for most locations east of the Ohio Valley except for possibly far northern Maine. Looking below at my December outlook issues back at the end of November, conditions are lining up almost perfectly as far as the development of the month of December. This second mild period currently should give way to a colder period late month. The MJO is showing signs of dwindling significance as ensemble and operational guidance suggests it may be headed into the circle of death with lower wavelength impact after traversing through unfavorable phase 5. ECMWF ensemble support is beginning to show signs of a negative NAO, but it remains east based in the long range. Looking at storm chances, there are a few dates of significance especially towards the 21-22 of the month. Given the continued hostile pattern, it is more likely this system is a significant snowstorm for parts of the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. None the less there is the potential for overrunning wintry precipitation in the northwest given the similarities to a southwest flow event. Also towards Christmas, there is the potential for a storm system, but less certainty on long range guidance. Temperatures will remain above normal for the next seven days with a lowering trend towards Christmas with possible below normal temperatures. Snow chances remain minimal for the shorter term.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(December)(Updated 11/29)
Many winter forecasts made back in the mid fall analyzed December as being the coldest month of the winter for much of the east coast. But now given the state of many global teleconnections, it appears December will continue the string of above normal temperature months. The month will open with a raging +AO nearly at 3SD and may be approaching a high in the first two week period. Corresponding with a +NAO, there will be little to no blocking associated over the Northern Atlantic. While the Atlantic remains dreadful, the Pacific is a tad more favorable early month with a return to a -EPO and +PNA favoring a west coast ridge. The MJO has been one of the driving factors in current wavelengths with phases 3-5 being traversed early in December. As the month progresses, there are signals the MJO heads back into unfavorable phases 2-4 and the EPO returns to a raging positive anomaly. This will allow for a mid month warm spell favoring the east coast and upper Great Plains. Around 12/20 or later, there are a few undefined signals indicating a sudden stratospheric warming event which may help to dislodge the positive NAO. Corresponding with a quieter sun towards the beginning of January, a return to slight blocking across the North Atlantic will be possible in this period.

Temperature- Temperatures will range well above normal on average for the month ranging from (+1.5F)-(+2.5)F for most climatological reporting stations. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for the first week or two of December. While slight transient cold waves are possible, they will last only 1-3 days at most. By mid month a possible transition to a milder pattern is possible with well above normal temperatures. Approaching late in the month towards Christmas, there is a chance of a return to a colder regime as we get closer to January. This may allow for seasonalable to slightly below normal temperatures. There remains a great deal of cold air on our side of the pole through December, so whenever or if this pattern changes, there will certainly be quite an arctic blast.

Precipitation- A relatively active subtropical jet stream considering we are in a moderate La Nina regime will continue to allow for the development of storm systems across the southern states. Given the lack of blocking, many of these storms will cut to the west of the Northeast putting most locations in the warm sector. While there will be a few periods for colder air across the east coast, timing will need to be perfect to get a snowstorm. In general this pattern is terrible for Middle Atlantic to receive any snowfall. I do believe though there will be 1-2 synoptic events which may allow for near normal snowfall for many locations. If these do not occur, it will be a mild and snowless month. Given the lack of sustained cold air, even the lake effect machine will remain quiet for the most part. Precipitation in general will average near climatological norms.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Local Harrisburg Radar"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.3in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.3in
Seasonal Total- 5.8in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 39F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow

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249. photonchaser
8:01 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting Sockets:
We had a bunch of freezing rain last night and this morning in the Kittery, Maine area. Very dangerous road conditions that caught many people off guard. Apparantly they even briefly shut down part of I-95 in New Hampshire because of the conditions.


Yeah I'm just a few miles north of you, I was on the bus this morning riding in, while we were at a stop light the car behind us got rear ended by a sliding car. Lucky that the bus got to school safely though.
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
248. Drakoen
7:16 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Models continue to look dismal today for the Christmas day storm.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
247. originalLT
5:08 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Thanks MM, and good luck with your GIS. I was a Geography major at the Univ. of Cincinnati, got my BA there(40 years ago! Wow, time flies). Then got an MA at S.U.N.Y. Binghamton in Geography.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
246. Sockets
5:08 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
We had a bunch of freezing rain last night and this morning in the Kittery, Maine area. Very dangerous road conditions that caught many people off guard. Apparantly they even briefly shut down part of I-95 in New Hampshire because of the conditions.
Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
245. MariettaMoon
4:45 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
The 25th storm had dissapeared off the 00z ECMFW as well. Waiting for 12z.

It is an interesting little southward trend for Friday. The 12z NAM accumulates 1"-3" from Johnstown to State College to the Poconos with mixing/changeover southeast of the mountains with little/no accumulation. 1"-2" east into southern New England. GFS a tad south with it as well. Maybe worth watching.
------------------------------------------------- ----

LT: Here's your culprit:

Anchorage / Elmendorf Air Force Base 06:55: Fair and Windy 34F, S Wind 31 mph, Gust 43 mph. Gusts to 55 mph in the mountains.

I believe Chinook wind gusts were up around 100mph in the Chugach Mts last night near turnagain arm... AKA the mountains in the background of the Anchorage cam.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
244. MariettaMoon
4:22 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Good luck with your switch? Is GIS very difficult? I hear differing views; I would like to take a class or two. Calculus is difficult; I cannot wait to be finished with it, lol.


Thanks. I haven't had GIS yet but likely taking it this Spring semester because they're opening another section because of high demand. Class was already full when I tried to register for the first section. I think it's hard for people that don't have a whole lot of experience or an interest with maps, but easier and more interesting for people that have a good understanding of them already and like to do mapping. I'm really looking forward to it.

I had Maps & Analysis this past semester and loved it. We even got into topographic mapping with the proper way of evaluating and drawing elevation contours and such. Learned how to identify the age of things such as when a development was built, what kind of irrigation a farmer is using etc. We had an intro to GIS during the last month or so and did a project on when, where and why college institutions were built in Lancaster County just by looking at the elements of different GIS maps. Learned how to properly layer GIS maps. After GIS next semester, I'll know how to do all kinds of stuff in some great GIS programs and should be able to create some excellent weather maps. Another class I will take in the future is "Cartography".

The thing is with the Meteorology, I was afraid of getting myself in too deep having to take up to Calc III, Physics II, Differential Equations etc. Afraid I was gonna be spinning my wheels and not progressing. I was pretty stressed out for a while deciding what I wanted/needed to do but am very happy with my decision... no regrets. Meteorology will have to remain a hobby.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
243. originalLT
3:13 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Just looked at the Alaska web cam, time stamp 06-08-06, and it looks like it is being shaken, its blurry. I wonder if it's just dirty or did they have an earth-quake? I guess we'll hear soon enough if they did. Hopefully its nothing. Maybe it's just "blurry, out of focus!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
242. originalLT
2:48 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Local Mets by me, (in the NYC metro area), have dropped the Christmas eve/Christmas day storm entierly now, just saying cloudy and cool. Currently, 44F light to mod. rain Baro.29.99F. It looks like this area of rain is moving North East, and it should be just cloudy and drizzly here for several hours. This area of rain should be out of hear in a half hour to an hour. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
241. Zachary Labe
2:45 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Another thing to watch... latest mesoscale models have been nosing the Friday event south. Check out the latest 12z NAM...

Typically SWFE trend farther north, but there is some confluence associated with a high pressure to the north, so this southern trends bares watching despite unlikeliness. At this point I do not have enough confidence to write a blog for forecasts towards Christmas. I would still watch the Christmas event as I would not be surprised to see it reappear on the models.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
240. NEwxguy
2:28 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
wow,talk about models flipflopping,this storm is causing the models to go into meltdown.Like I said yesterday we won't know for sure until this weekend.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
239. PhillySnow
2:24 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I thought it was you MM, but then I was thinking you came from Philly not Trenton.

My recollection is that it was both me and MM (TT at the time) talking about wanting to move to Vermont. I remember writing about that after coming home from winter vacation last year.

I still want to move up there, but it looks like it's going to be a while before we can do it. Winters like this increase the desire, for sure.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
238. HeavySnow
12:49 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
I planned to make a snow fort that would kill HeavySlush with envy...


Instead, the crappy winter will kill me with sadness.
Winter solstice? Shorts weather here. waaaaaaaaaaa
waaaaaaaaaa
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
237. TheRasberryPatch
12:46 PM GMT on December 21, 2011
For you guys taking Calculus...it is hard and it gets harder as you progress, but once you are through the classes you will wonder. It's definitely a journey. You are climbing steps and when you first start out you look up and see how high you have to go. It is pretty far up, but it is worth it. Like I have said in the past...once you get through all of the classes you feel relieved, but also having that knowledge that Newton and the rest of the Incredible Genius's of the past. It's just amazing how those men came up with what they did back then. Once I got throught all the Calculus, Physics became a lot easier.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
236. listenerVT
5:29 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Ras: Thanks. I'm sure it's cheaper to just dump it on your grounds rather than have it hauled away.

Listener: I could tell Manchester was highbrow. Very nice area. Jericho & Underhill would be my first choice if at all possible. Surprisingly, I've never been in Montpelier but want to visit. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think most of the farmers in the Champlain Valley had a strong influence on it being historically republican. I think it has leaned democratic in recent years. One of my favorite things about VT is that it was voted the #1 green state in the US by Forbes Magazine.

To everyone: If this winter tanks, I think we're all at fault. I'm sure we have all made big plans for this winter or have done something very different since last winter. Whatever we did the last two years, keep doing it! I moved out here and messed it up for everybody, threw the weather pattern all off. Sorry!



Could be. Of course, in recent years, it's Pat Leahy (a Democrat) and Bernie Sanders (an Independent) who have championed Vermont's farmers' concerns.

That's cool about Jericho-Underhill being your first choice! I live in Jericho and work at the Library that serves the two towns. :-) And, of course, Jericho's most famous forebear is none other than Snowflake Bentley.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
235. PalmyraPunishment
4:29 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
lol I haven't seen it yet but did the GFS just lose this storm again? lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
234. Zachary Labe
4:26 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


It's a possibility. Won't know for sure until I graduate and begin job hunting.

Switched my major from Meteorology to Geography / Geospatial Applications (GIS), with an Environmental Land Use minor. Ran into a brick wall with Calculus and seeing that I'm 32 and not getting any younger and want to start a family as soon as possible when I graduate, I thought it was wise to keep moving forward and not have to take classes over again. Maybe it would be a different story if I were 18 or something. I was already taking 3 geography courses and have been loving it so far. Plus, with a job in Meteorology, I would likely have been working most weekends with odd hours until I gained some seniority, but have a better chance of finding more regular hours in GIS, which would work better when we have kids. There also appears to be a much greater job selection in GIS.

I believe my professors want me to lead an internship project at Millersville starting this coming summer. Evidently, there are people dumping a good amount of hazardous wastes into storm drains and creeks in Lancaster County where it's running into the Susquehanna and eventually into the Chesapeake Bay where it's damaging the ecosystems. We're gonna go out and map and test the drainpipes and such within the county and create a new detailed GIS map and eventually trace the evidence back to the sources of the dumping. This is the sort of thing I'll be doing for work after I graduate, hopefully in Vermont!

Good luck with your switch? Is GIS very difficult? I hear differing views; I would like to take a class or two. Calculus is difficult; I cannot wait to be finished with it, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
233. MariettaMoon
4:05 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Ras: Thanks. I'm sure it's cheaper to just dump it on your grounds rather than have it hauled away.

Listener: I could tell Manchester was highbrow. Very nice area. Jericho & Underhill would be my first choice if at all possible. Surprisingly, I've never been in Montpelier but want to visit. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think most of the farmers in the Champlain Valley had a strong influence on it being historically republican. I think it has leaned democratic in recent years. One of my favorite things about VT is that it was voted the #1 green state in the US by Forbes Magazine.

To everyone: If this winter tanks, I think we're all at fault. I'm sure we have all made big plans for this winter or have done something very different since last winter. Whatever we did the last two years, keep doing it! I moved out here and messed it up for everybody, threw the weather pattern all off. Sorry!

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
232. PalmyraPunishment
3:48 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
I planned to make a snow fort that would kill HeavySlush with envy...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
231. Zachary Labe
3:46 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting shipweather:
It figures, I decided this winter I'd give skiing a try. So this is all my fault.

I signed up for a cross country skiing class at Cornell to give it a first try, and I do not even know if that will be possible next semester.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
230. listenerVT
3:36 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


We really loved the Burlington / Champlain Valley area. Vacationed for a week in Stowe a few years ago but did a ton of exloring the Champlain Valley, Burlington, the Burlington Islands and all the way out to the Northeast Kingdom.

This year on our way to and from Goshen NH for Thanksgiving, we drove across Route 7 from Bennington to Manchester, then across the Greens on Route 11 to NH. I don't know, we just feel like we belong there.

Manchester is an awsome classic New England town burried amongst big mountains on all sides and was all decorated for Christmas with all kinds of shoppers roaming around on the Saturday following Thanksgiving. You know, the whole 9 yards!...


Yeah, Manchester does it up big. It's a kind of pricey community, as is Stowe, and also Shelburne just south of Burlington. But there are a LOT of wonderful communities that aren't quite so highbrow. Consider Jericho and Underhill in Chittenden County, Bristol and Vergennes in Addison County both have very nice downtown areas, too. Montpelier, the state capitol, has perhaps the best old-fashioned shops and excellent layout. Putney and Brattleboro are friendly, intelligent and earthy.

The whole state is beautiful (no billboards permitted) and the state legislature is a citizen legislature, so it's more oriented toward what the people need than some states see. I suppose some folks would call Vermont a "liberal" state, but the history is more Republican than Democrat...Howard Dean notwithstanding.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
229. weathergeek5
3:30 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Actually its my fault. Bought a snowblower...
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
228. TheRasberryPatch
3:26 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


It's a possibility. Won't know for sure until I graduate and begin job hunting.

Switched my major from Meteorology to Geography / Geospatial Applications (GIS), with an Environmental Land Use minor. Ran into a brick wall with Calculus and seeing that I'm 32 and not getting any younger and want to start a family as soon as possible when I graduate, I thought it was wise to keep moving forward and not have to take classes over again. Maybe it would be a different story if I were 18 or something. I was already taking 3 geography courses and have been loving it so far. Plus, with a job in Meteorology, I would likely have been working most weekends with odd hours until I gained some seniority, but have a better chance of finding more regular hours in GIS, which would work better when we have kids. There also appears to be a much greater job selection in GIS.

I believe my professors want me to lead an internship project at Millersville starting this coming summer. Evidently, there are people dumping a good amount of hazardous wastes into storm drains and creeks in Lancaster County where it's running into the Susquehanna and eventually into the Chesapeake Bay where it's damaging the ecosystems. We're gonna go out and map and test the drainpipes and such within the county and create a new detailed GIS map and eventually trace the evidence back to the sources of the dumping. This is the sort of thing I'll be doing for work after I graduate, hopefully in Vermont!


Good luck. I remember taking Physical Geography in college and loved it.

That is sad that people are still dumping hazardous materials in storm drains.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
227. MariettaMoon
3:23 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting shipweather:
It figures, I decided this winter I'd give skiing a try. So this is all my fault.


Lol! That's funny
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
226. MariettaMoon
3:23 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:


All hail and welcome! What part of Vermont do you hope to inhabit?


We really loved the Burlington / Champlain Valley area. Vacationed for a week in Stowe a few years ago but did a ton of exploring in the Champlain Valley, Burlington, the Burlington Islands and all the way out to the Northeast Kingdom.

This year on our way to and from Goshen NH for Thanksgiving, we drove across Route 7 from Bennington to Manchester, then across the Greens on Route 11 to NH. I don't know, we just feel like we belong there.

Manchester is an awsome classic New England town burried amongst big mountains on all sides and was all decorated for Christmas with all kinds of shoppers roaming around on the Saturday following Thanksgiving. You know, the whole 9 yards!...
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
225. MariettaMoon
3:11 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I thought it was you MM, but then I was thinking you came from Philly not Trenton.

Will you finish school and then hope to move there?


It's a possibility. Won't know for sure until I graduate and begin job hunting.

Switched my major from Meteorology to Geography / Geospatial Applications (GIS), with an Environmental Land Use minor. Ran into a brick wall with Calculus and seeing that I'm 32 and not getting any younger and want to start a family as soon as possible when I graduate, I thought it was wise to keep moving forward and not have to take classes over again. Maybe it would be a different story if I were 18 or something. I was already taking 3 geography courses and have been loving it so far. Plus, with a job in Meteorology, I would likely have been working most weekends with odd hours until I gained some seniority, but have a better chance of finding more regular hours in GIS, which would work better when we have kids. There also appears to be a much greater job selection in GIS.

I believe my professors want me to lead an internship project at Millersville starting this coming summer. Evidently, there are people dumping a good amount of hazardous wastes into storm drains and creeks in Lancaster County where it's running into the Susquehanna and eventually into the Chesapeake Bay where it's damaging the ecosystems. We're gonna go out and map and test the drainpipes and such within the county and create a new detailed GIS map and eventually trace the evidence back to the sources of the dumping. This is the sort of thing I'll be doing for work after I graduate, hopefully in Vermont!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
224. shipweather
2:47 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
It figures, I decided this winter I'd give skiing a try. So this is all my fault.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
223. listenerVT
1:42 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


I guess it was me when I was TT. I was saying how much my wife and I loved Vermont and hope to live there someday. Drove through VT this past Thanksgiving and we came away further convinced.


All hail and welcome! What part of Vermont do you hope to inhabit?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
222. listenerVT
1:40 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
It's 18 here. Cold enough that my windshield was coated in crystals; and since my wipers froze warped, it was a bit of a challenge seeing the road on the 2 miles home from work.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
221. TheRasberryPatch
12:34 AM GMT on December 21, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


I guess it was me when I was TT. I was saying how much my wife and I loved Vermont and hope to live there someday. Drove through VT this past Thanksgiving and we came away further convinced.


I thought it was you MM, but then I was thinking you came from Philly not Trenton.

Will you finish school and then hope to move there?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
220. NYBizBee
11:42 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting NEwxguy:
This storm on Christmas eve/Christmas day,is going to be so tough to call,its one of those storms right up until Saturday,it will be hard to call.
well hopefully some of us get some snow for christmas would be nice. Last years big Dec 26th hit was a last min call for the intensity. We did know all week it would be some sort of snow but not a blizzard for some of us.

merry christmas and happy holidays to all of you!
Member Since: February 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
219. MariettaMoon
10:13 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


That is my kind of weather for this time of the year.

Blizz - wasn't there a member posting here a lot talking about moving to Maine or Vermont. He wanted to enjoy what listener is talking about. Was it TT?


I guess it was me when I was TT. I was saying how much my wife and I loved Vermont and hope to live there someday. Drove through VT this past Thanksgiving and we came away further convinced.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
218. MariettaMoon
10:08 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z ECMWF snow maps from wunderground slam the LSV with a moderate plowable snowstorm!


12Z model guidance after Thursday/Friday is a complete train wreck. Most of them with not even a trace of a storm on 24th/25th. 12z ECMFW gives Marietta a 12hr storm with 4"-7", beginning by 7am on 25th, up to 1" per hour around 1pm on 25th, and ending by 7pm 25th. Also snow mixing as far southeast as I-95 with a sharp accumulating gradient north and west.

So hard to put faith in it with almost no other support, have to put your own knowledge and experience into it. Good thing I usually trust the ECMFW over the others and good to hear you're still keeping an eye on it. Don't like it though and not getting my hopes up yet.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
217. HeavySnow
8:32 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Green Christmas this year.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
216. PhillySnow
7:28 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I have grown up with many years of disappointing snow for the East Coast, especially around Christmas and New Years
Me too, and it seems we do get snow later in the season when it starts off slow like this. The warmth, though, seems excessive this year. Someone was wearing shorts here today! Weird.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
215. originalLT
6:43 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Wow, if what you posted turns out to be true, the late Don Meridith might break out into his old song, __"Turn out the lights the party's over..."-- for descent snow chances this year!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
214. NEwxguy
6:42 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
PP,
If that does come to be,we may as well cancel winter.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
213. Zachary Labe
6:42 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
12z ECMWF snow maps from wunderground slam the LSV with a moderate plowable snowstorm!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
212. Zachary Labe
6:39 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
CFS model is complete crap. Let's not try to all buy into the winter cancel momentum here like other forums lol, ugh. Looking wetter and wetter for the coming week with many waves as the inferno pattern continues... That being said, I am still watching the Christmas time frame closely. 12z ECMWF slams central Pennsylvania with snow. I would much rather have the ECMWF on our side than the GFS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
211. PalmyraPunishment
5:50 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Holy crap. Planning this far out is insane, but if this plays out -- a bunch of ski resorts may lose an entire year...

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
210. Drakoen
5:08 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Models showing run to run inconsistencies with the potential Christmas storm. Latest GFS 12z looks dismal compared to previous runs and the ECMWF 00z is on the opposite end with an east coast storm. Models seem to be having difficulties handling the pattern.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
209. PalmyraPunishment
4:50 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
GFS had a double-barrel slopfest for Christmas Eve at 0z and by 12z, completely gone. Not a trace. It also changed the outlook after the event from having a trough pushing -10 850s into PA to a ridge pushing well NE.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
208. TheRasberryPatch
4:31 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
It's 25 here, and a real New England day: clouds (some dark, some white), some blue sky, and some snowflakes spitting into the bargain. Nothing likely to amount to anything, but it helps a bit.


That is my kind of weather for this time of the year.

Blizz - wasn't there a member posting here a lot talking about moving to Maine or Vermont. He wanted to enjoy what listener is talking about. Was it TT?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
207. NEwxguy
4:04 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
This storm on Christmas eve/Christmas day,is going to be so tough to call,its one of those storms right up until Saturday,it will be hard to call.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
206. listenerVT
3:47 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
It's 25 here, and a real New England day: clouds (some dark, some white), some blue sky, and some snowflakes spitting into the bargain. Nothing likely to amount to anything, but it helps a bit.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5481
205. TheF1Man
3:39 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
They're already hyping up the holiday storm on weather.com. Looks like this one doesn't have a chance then. Warm here as well at around 40F. Last few days have been cold though.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
204. TheRasberryPatch
3:36 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Another cloudy and warm morning, surprise! Ugh.


just another day in December. You will get used to it, Blizz. I have grown up with many years of disappointing snow for the East Coast, especially around Christmas and New Years
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
203. MariettaMoon
3:25 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
The 24th/25th system doesn't look that good to me. Too much warm air, lows not all that strong. Possible to get some light accums down to LSV and such, but light to moderate accums more likely for interior New England I think. I'll be back in Trevose for the Holidays so I'm not expecting anything there.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
202. shipweather
2:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
this is awful.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
201. Zachary Labe
1:55 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Another cloudy and warm morning, surprise! Ugh.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
200. PhillySnow
1:08 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
48F this morning with scattered showers. Our low was 45F. The average min temp for this area is 29F, so we're 16 degrees over average.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1229
199. TheRasberryPatch
12:59 PM GMT on December 20, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
TRP, you were right, Ben should have "sat" this evening, he took a beating, but he is very tough. S.F. looked really good on defense.


Ben is tough, but sometimes toughness doesn't add up to being competitive. Ben looked off all night. Now he might be hobbled for a couple more weeks instead of resting his ankle the past week and possibly feeling better in a couple of days.

Looks like a West-East flow for today
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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