Seasonable Temperatures and Quiet Weather...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:17 PM GMT on December 08, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Well looks like one of the largest forecast busts I have had in the last few winters and for many meteorologists. A complex and dynamic storm was expected to produce heavy snow as cold air filtered in behind the cold front. Instead, a widespread precipitation axis of heavy rain formed in the warmer sector leaving lighter precipitation rates in the cold sector. After rain changed to snow, rates were too light for accumulations on the water logged soil. While rain changing to accumulating snow events are rare, it is evident that this was a very dynamic storm system given the widespread reports of lightning and thunder and gusty northwest winds. Many times impressive dynamics can quickly change rain over to snow, as was expected. In this case the antecedent air mass was just a tad too warm with a weaker than expected cold air advection influence. Model guidance looks to be reported in the poor category with a terrible NAM/HRRR/RUC output, which all placed the precipitation shield well too far northwest and definitely too cold at the surface and aloft. Model guidance for GFS and ECWMF was also poor, but the GFS performed the best acknowledging the quick movement of the storm system. In any case, quieter weather is ahead for at least the next seven days or so aside from lake effect off of Erie and Ontario. A thank you to all who posted the last few days with wonderful observations and reports.

I will have out a new weekly weather blog by Tuesday morning.

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94. listenerVT
3:32 AM GMT on December 20, 2011
Sounds like we need boring weather for a few more days until Blizz and F1 and others get through finals. Then we can have a lot of really fun, snowy weather to blog about and play in and not have it be a distraction. ;-)

But, seriously, folks...what's with the deluge of rain I just drove through coming home from the supermarket? It was 33 degrees. Maddening!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5480
93. TheF1Man
4:42 AM GMT on December 13, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

This week is as boring as it gets in winter. Blog has been quiet in general this season with the lack of winter weather. But things should be changing towards late month.


Not only is it boring here, but it's boring across the country too. All you need is more distractions from finals though ;)

Thanks for the goodluck, I start thursday.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
92. shipweather
4:49 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Very cold this morning. I've been watching Ski Roundtop making snow all morning (I need something to do at work in the downtime) and they are still making it!!

Blizz....outlook on the changes in the major indices> PNO, NAO?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
91. MariettaMoon
4:29 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
How's Christmas week looking?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
90. MariettaMoon
4:28 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
First teens of the season, I had 19F this morning.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
89. Zachary Labe
3:50 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Quoting PhillySnow:
Anyone else notice how quiet it gets on the blog when the weather is boring? I know this dry, cool weather is just what we need, and I tend to lose interest in the weather when it's the same
day after day.

At least the temps are getting colder!

This week is as boring as it gets in winter. Blog has been quiet in general this season with the lack of winter weather. But things should be changing towards late month.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
88. PhillySnow
3:06 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Anyone else notice how quiet it gets on the blog when the weather is boring? I know this dry, cool weather is just what we need, and I tend to lose interest in the weather when it's the same day after day.

At least the temps are getting colder!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1227
87. MariettaMoon
1:53 AM GMT on December 12, 2011
12/7 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
Bridgeport CT: 47F*
Islip NY: 51F*

12/6 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
Pittsfield MA: 43F (t)
Hartford CT: 50F (t)
Allentown PA: 53F*
Philadelphia PA: 57F*
Wilmington DE: 53F*
Atlantic City NJ: 57F*
Baltimore MD: 56F*
Dulles VA: 56F*
Washington DC: 55F*
Salisbury MD: 57F*
Lynchburg VA: 52F*
Roanoke VA: 52F*
Bluefield WV: 56F*
Blacksburg VA: 49F*
Norfolk VA: 60F*
Danville VA: 60F*

12/5 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Caribou ME: 40F*

12/30 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Caribou ME: 61F (t)
Bangor ME: 63F (t)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
86. bwi
12:56 AM GMT on December 12, 2011
Wow, I just checked the hourly forecast for next week at DCA, and we've only got one or two forecast points with winds about 10mph the whole week. That's good riding weather. Here's tomorrow (3 hour points):
0 mph East
(100°)
0 mph ENE
(60°)
0 mph ENE
(60°)
0 mph ESE
(120°)
1 mph SSE
(160°)
1 mph SE
(140°)
1 mph ESE
(120°)
0 mph NE
(40°)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
85. MariettaMoon
11:35 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Never mind, got it, thanks
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
84. MariettaMoon
11:29 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Wunderstorm: Can you post the link I should begin with that aligns with what you said regarding the hrrr. I don't think I'm starting on the same page as everyone else or something.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
83. pittsburghnurse
11:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
White Christmas for interior northeast/mid-atlantic? I wonder how the ski resorts are feeling about this dry scenario. Blue knob, Seven Springs have got to be a little bit worried.

Got the fire going, the tree blinging, the dog (australian shepherd) at my feet. He makes a nice foot warmer. Baby it's cold outside.

Blizz, you on winter break yet?
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
82. originalLT
8:40 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
My low temp. was 22F this morning.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
81. wunderstorm87
8:06 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
My low ended up at 18.9F last night. I can still see plenty of snow on top of Berry Mountain to my north from Wednesday night's storm.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
80. MariettaMoon
8:01 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Coldest morning here so far, 21F
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
79. wunderstorm87
7:58 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Can anybody tell me where to find the forecasted accumulating snowfall on the hrrr page? I've browsed through it, can't find it.

Once you get to the page titled "HRRR Model Fields" (first link in the upper left under "Current & Forecast Graphics") you can set the domain (region of the country)and the model run in the field a couple lines below. There are several different snow related products a little over halfway down the list including hourly snowfall, total accumulated snowfall, and snow/water equivalent.

I've found that the HRRR doesn't perform very well on coastal storms, but it's pretty good on clippers and any type of convective development during the severe thunderstorm season. If anyone else has any opinions on the HRRR feel free to chime in.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
78. Zachary Labe
7:13 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Quoting TheF1Man:
Hey Blizz, I wish you and anyone else on here best of luck on finals!

Thanks! Same to you! I have two more left...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
77. TheF1Man
6:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Hey Blizz, I wish you and anyone else on here best of luck on finals!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
76. Zachary Labe
2:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
17F here last night with a few snow flurries.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
75. originalLT
6:10 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
Coldest night here in Stamford, 24F at 1AM.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
74. anduril
2:59 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
Im seeing the blue background but the comment displays are cut off. Cutts off at the red (report?) button in chrome
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
73. photonchaser
1:55 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
The next seven days looks sunny and warm. I don't think I'll see any snow untill at least Christmas...

P.S. I'm getting the same problem with the comments. Maybe it's the browser I'm using
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
72. Zachary Labe
1:32 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
Coldest night so far this season tonight! Enjoy!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
71. TheF1Man
12:50 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Blizz and all, I'm signing in here from my office computer, and here too, no light blue back ground. Very strange!( my office is about 6 miles from home).


That is pretty strange, works for me though. Check your account settings, maybe it got changed somehow?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
70. originalLT
6:09 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
Hi Blizz and all, I'm signing in here from my office computer, and here too, no light blue back ground. Very strange!( my office is about 6 miles from home).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
69. weathergeek5
5:05 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
yup still there for me.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
68. shipweather
4:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
I see it too. Still there.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
67. Zachary Labe
4:37 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Blizz, for some reason, when you are commenting, there is no light blue back ground anymore to your posts. Did you do that, or is it WU?

That is strange. On my screen I still see the light blue background. I don't think I did anything.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
66. originalLT
3:13 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
Hi Blizz, for some reason, when you are commenting, there is no light blue back ground anymore to your posts. Did you do that, or is it WU?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
65. PhillySnow
2:46 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
42F here and sunny. Looks like that's pretty much our forecast for the rest of the month, give or take a few degrees. Forecasted to get warmer, actually, towards the end of the month. (NWS) Slight chance of a shower end of next week. Boring, but good for ground conditions.

Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1227
64. Zachary Labe
2:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
Dusting of snow last night up here.

Quoting MariettaMoon:
Can anybody tell me where to find the forecasted accumulating snowfall on the hrrr page? I've browsed through it, can't find it.

It is on the list of the HRRR page titled 'total acc snow.'
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
63. originalLT
6:55 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Brian, one last thing, the site I gave you, it's main name is--www.EgyptSAT24.com
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
62. BaltimoreBrian
6:27 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Will do, thanks OriginalLT. Hope you and all here are well.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8554
61. originalLT
6:23 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Thanks for the response and info Brian. Found a cool site that has a clear satellite moving photo of the Middle East area. It is---www.sat24.com/en/eg----Try it out.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
60. BaltimoreBrian
6:13 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Bagram. Crackling cold at night and very dry. Even at dawn the humidity isn't much above 30%. It has been getting into the 50s during the day and lower 20s at night, some upper teens. Dewpoint mostly is below zero. There has been no precipitation so far this month which is a bit unusual. Storms from the far west usually wring out light rain or snow during the winter. The Iranian deserts and Zargos mountains do not usually leave much moisture, but usually light precip gets wrung out of them by the mountains here.

But the winter mid-latitude storm belt has not been active so far this December. I just checked and the pressure has not fallen below 30.00" this month.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8554
59. originalLT
5:56 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Hey Baltimore Brian, glad to see you posting, hope everything is OK where you are deployed. LT.-- What is the weather like where you are? Here in Stamford CT. it is cloudy, 41F Baro. 30.16 and steady. A cold front is coming thru, but no precip.(at least where I am) attached to it. Winds are calm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
58. BaltimoreBrian
5:28 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
I see you're still keeping a good blog Blizzard92.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8554
57. Drakoen
4:25 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Pretty big differences between the GFS and ECMWF 500mb long-range wavelengths. The ECMWF seems to want to maintain the rather stagnant pattern while the GFS wants something more, with a semblance of positive PNA western ridge and a negative NAO eastern trough with blocking up in the Canadian Maritimes. With the ensembles showing the NAO heading neutral, maintaining a neutral PNA, and positive AO the tendency is towards the ECMWF, but which model will prevail we will see in the upcoming week or so.

GFS 500mb height anomalies:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
56. MariettaMoon
3:03 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Can anybody tell me where to find the forecasted accumulating snowfall on the hrrr page? I've browsed through it, can't find it.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
55. MariettaMoon
3:01 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
lol the NOAA message is funny
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
54. Zachary Labe
2:50 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
hurigo- hahaha... I was sent that in a link from an email from the meteorology department up here. Too funny!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
53. TheRasberryPatch
2:31 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Quoting Walshy:
1-3inches of snow from that last storm in western North Carolina.

NC Current Ski Conditions

Cataloochee 14-35inches
Sugar Mountain Resort 6-18inches
Ski Beech Mountain Resort 4-12inches

LIVE cam of people skiing tonight up there.
Link


wow...much better skiing conditions than Pennsylvania. Is that unusual for it to be that good this time of the year?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
52. Walshy
11:42 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
1-3inches of snow from that last storm in western North Carolina.

NC Current Ski Conditions

Cataloochee 14-35inches
Sugar Mountain Resort 6-18inches
Ski Beech Mountain Resort 4-12inches

LIVE cam of people skiing tonight up there.
Link
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
51. hurigo
11:37 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
50. Sockets
11:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:
Check out the GFS 00z around the 20th-22nd. Some potential there down the road and the long-range ECMWF hints this as well.


Link

accuweather posted an article talking about stormy possibilities during that time period as well
Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
49. hurigo
10:22 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
Hey Blizz, et al.
Have you seen that hilarious video of "NOAA wishing you a merry christmas?" If not, please go to Gams' blog and check it out. Brilliant, I say. Brilliant.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
47. bwi
9:30 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
If I'm looking at it right, 12z GFS looks like pretty warm and pretty dry for the southern mid-atlantic anyway right through to Christmas eve!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
46. Sockets
7:10 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:
Check out the GFS 00z around the 20th-22nd. Some potential there down the road and the long-range ECMWF hints this as well.


I see what your looking at...really hope something materializes...would like to hit the slopes sooner than later
Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
44. PhillySnow
5:40 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I wonder how the ski resorts are doing up and down the east coast. I would guess Wisp isn't doing too good as well as Whitetail. Maybe Seven Springs is doing OK. Not sure about the Poconos. You might have to go to Lake Placid>

Most ski resorts in the Poconos are not opening until later in December. Temps are just now getting cold enough for snow-making
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1227

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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