December 7-8 Rain/Snow over Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 2:13 PM GMT on December 06, 2011

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Current teleconnections and wavelengths continue to support a very mild pattern for much of the eastern CONUS over the next 2-4 weeks at the minimum. But there are still remain chances of snow in some areas given the right setup. A cold front will move through the region as a shortwave develops and moves along the front. Cold air advection will transition some areas from rain to heavy snow, but it will be a close battle for temperatures as a 1-2 degree difference will make this a very difficult forecast.

Thoughts on December 7-8 Rain/Snow Event
A strong cold front is slowly moving across the Northeast with several shortwaves moving up along the boundary. The first wave is moving through Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with a swath of moderate to heavy rain. As the front slowly moves east, cold air advection will filter cooler air into the region as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s by dusk. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5in to 1in for most areas south of interstate 80. It will be a race for timing as precipitation begins to move back into the region by Wednesday evening and colder air begins to filter in from the northwest. The strength of the cold air remains weak with the lack of anticyclone to the north and absent blocking upstream. H85s will drop below 0C as far south as the Pennsylvania turnpike by Wednesday evening along with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 538dm.

A heavy axis of deformation precipitation will wrap around the second shortwave Wednesday night with several convective indices indicating high QPF rates. Impressive dynamics with weak cold air advection should transition the rain to snow from the northwest to the southeast Wednesday night across Maryland and Pennsylvania up to New Jersey. Heavy snow will fall at the rate of 1-3in/hr for a short 2-3 hour period. 2m temperatures will remain marginal and hover possibly above freezing for a duration of the event. Given warm and wet ground conditions and marginal temperatures, accumulations will be limited at first until snow rates become higher. Snow ratios will be limited to 10:1 for most areas, but higher ratios are likely during heavier rates with excellent dendritic growth zones being indicated on SKEW T charts. Most of the accumulation for the Middle Atlantic will occur during the overnight hours after rush hour and before the morning commute. This will limit impacts.

It is possible given current wavelengths that this low pressure continues to trend northwest. Given this potential my forecast for snow accumulations has been given a slight warmer bias. It is possible my accumulations may be too heavy given the marginal temperatures. But if rates are heavy enough there is the possibility for higher amounts with localized locations nearing a foot of snow. This will likely be limited to the higher elevations above 1000ft which have the best chance at winter storm warning criteria. This is a very difficult forecast and is very similar to the October event for snow axis placement. Marginal temperatures continue to play the biggest factor in the forecat. There will be no sleet or freezing rain in this event given the extent of the boundary layer warmth.

Most I-95 locations will stay primarily rain through the event. For areas towards New England a similar progression of rain to heavy snow is likely Wednesday morning into early afternoon and will be very similar to the Middle Atlantic. Most of the snow will be west of the coastal plain especially towards the higher elevations of western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.

If the cold air advection filters in time, it is likely the Lower Susquehanna Valley along and above the turnpike through the southern Poconos will receive the highest accumulations with the possibility for 4-9in of snow. But for now I will forecast lower amounts. See below.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Winchester, VA - Frederick, MD - Westminster, MD - Coatesville, PA - Pottstown, PA - Quakertown, PA - Hillsborough, NJ - Peekskill, NY - Hartford, CT - Worcester, MA - Manchester, NH - Augusta, ME - Bucksport, ME

*Along and to the north and west of this line will be the highest snow accumulations and predominately remain snow throughout the event. South of the line will feature a mix or plain rain with limited to no snow accumulation. Elevations above 1000ft along and northwest of this line will feature the highest snow totals.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Quick moving storm with impacts less than 12 hours during early morning hours with low societal impact.
2. Brief periods of heavy snow of 1-2in/hr.
3. Wet snow with high water content as snow ratios remain around 10:1.
4. Higher elevations above 1000ft may see upwards of 7in or more.
5. Snow may fall at temperatures of only 32-34F for duration of event.

Snow Map...

*I put this map together rather quickly, but I wanted to show a generic distributation of the snowfall totals to help make my forecast a bit more simple to understand. The 3-6in range will have the highest snow totals with locally higher amounts possible (especially above 1000ft)

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 2-4in of wet snow
Baltimore, MD- Up to 1in of wet snow in some areas
Salisbury, MD- Heavy rain
Pittsburgh, PA- Light snow up to 1in
State College PA- Light snow. Accumulations 2-6in
Williamsport, PA- Light snow. Accumulations of 2-6in
Altoona, PA- Light to moderate snow. Accumulations 3-6in
Harrisburg, PA- Rain changing to heavy snow. Accumulations 2-5in
Lancaster, PA- Rain changing to snow. Accumulations 1-3in
Philadelphia, PA- Rain mixing with snow. Little to no accumulation
Allentown, PA- Raing changing to heavy snow. Accumulations 2-5in
Scranton, PA- Moderate snow. 2-5in of accumulation
Washington, DC- Rain mixing with a few flakes at end. No accumulation
Wilmington, DE- Primarily rain mixing with a few flakes at end
Dover, DE- Heavy rain
Trenton, NJ- Mostly rain changing to rain/snow. Little to no accumulation.
New York City, NY- Mostly rain changing to rain/snow. Little to no accumulation.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate snow. 3-6in of accumulation
Binghamton, NY- Light snow. Accumulations 2-4in
Ithaca, NY- Light snow. Accumulations 1-2in
Albany, NY- Light snow to moderate snow. Accumulations 2-6in
Hartford, CT- Rain changing to snow. 1-3in of accumulation
Concord, NH- Light snow. 1-4in of snow is possible
Providence, RI- Heavy rain
Worcester, MA- Rain to moderate snow. 1-4in of accumulation
Boston, MA- Mostly rain changing to rain/snow. Up to 1in is possible in some areas
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain
Portland, ME- Rain to rain/snow. 1-2in of wet snow is possible
Bangor, ME- Rain to heavy snow. 2-5in of snow is possible
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Current guidance has been edging the position of the low pressure farther northwest while weakening the first shortwave and strengthening the primary low. This trend will likely continue slightly northwest with limited blocking upstream enhancing uncertainty for many forecasts at the cusp of the rain/snow line. Current SREF and GEFS ensemble means suggest widespread 1-1.5in QPF amounts well inland towards I-81 with a sharp cutoff to the northwest. Ensembles are continuing to shift northwest in QPF and likely will continue to do so by about 25-50 miles. The NAM remains on the colder edge of the envelope suggesting very high snow amounts for parts of east-central Pennsylvania up through northwest New Jersey and up through central New England. Given my analysis this morning, it appears the NAM is already running a bit too cold given 2m temperatures in the low to mid 50s for most observing sites. GFS remains the farthest southeast of guidance and given the nw shift in the ensembles, it likely remains too far southeast and can be disgarded.

ECMWF is a mean between the GFS and NAM operational models and therefore has the highest concentration. Model QPF remains similar with 1in amounts as far northwest of Harrisburg, PA. Much of this QPF is progged as snow, although I believe guidance is running a bit too warm for boundary layer temperatures and there I am cutting snowfall QPF totals in half accounting for factors such as wet and warm ground temperatures, poor snow ratios, and above freezing boundary layer temperatures.

After the Storm
The continued +AO and +NAO will dominate the long range with little to no blocking in the northern Atlantic. Current MJO phases support an instilled mild pattern over the eastern contiguous United States with limited chances of wintry weather through the end of the month. As my December forecast alerted to, it is likely another very mild spell is possible mid to late month perhaps towards the holidays as the EPO begins to retreat to a positive anomaly. In the shorter term colder (seasonable to slighty below normal) temperatures are likely under a west-northwest flow. Given the lake of cyclonic flow, lake effect snows will remain unorganized for the most part with a snow drought continuing across the Great Lakes. Any chances of lake effect snow will be limited to directly after frontal passages.

A weak clipper will move across upstate New York and northern New England with the threat of light snow. Moisture will be lacking, but orographic lift may aid in the possibility for a coating to two inches of snow in some areas Friday night. A brief period of lake effect snow is likely over the weekend under a northwest flow. Given the reduced north Atlantic blocking and the return of the unfavorable Alaskan vortex, most storm systems will have a higher likelihood of moving up through the Great Lakes. This will favor a snowy pattern towards the Midwest. Enjoy the the taste of winter this system provides as chances will remain minimal ahead.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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227. goofyrider
10:28 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Snow Fredricksburg to Ashland Va. Hit it headed South on the CSX main from Lorton. Started about 16:30. Just a coating to the south but pretty.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2646
226. Hoynieva
1:55 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
who is He exactly? The man behind the curtain?
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
224. TheRasberryPatch
12:25 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Well I take it this is the first bust of the snow season year. My forecast looks like a joke, ugh. I will have a short analysis about what went wrong early tomorrow morning.


Well, you win some...you lose some, especially in the game of forecasting snow.

As I have been saying...it is very rare, rare indeed for the Mid-Atlantic to get over an inch of rain and then have accumulating snow from the same storm. I think when it comes to forecasting in the winter experience needs to be at the table. Maybe He only gets a 5-10% say, but I think He needs some say. Just my two cents.

Quoting shipweather:
wow, this wind is crazy.


It's been awhile since we had some strong NW winds ushering in cold air
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
223. shipweather
8:39 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
wow, this wind is crazy.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
222. originalLT
6:32 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Hi TheF1Man, I remember those "finals"weeks well. I don't envy you! Good luck, I hope you do well, then enjoy your month or so off. Hopefully we'll get at least one good snow storm during your time off! LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
221. TheF1Man
6:12 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Hey listener and Lt, nothing here in Springfield but torrential downpours. Can't wait to go on break. This semester has really been tough.

Blizz if you go back through the blog and read this...get ready for the madness that is Finals Week!!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
220. originalLT
6:01 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Good for you Listener, yeah, everybody seems dissappointed in Pa. Never expected much here. Just alot of rain, and very windy. My temp. is down to 38F, and the barometer is continuing to fall, it did not "bottom out" as I thought, it's down to 29.34". LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
219. listenerVT
5:56 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Gosh. I came here thinking I'd see all of you having heaps of snow. I'm so sorry it's a bust down there!

Most oddly, after expecting maybe a dusting, we were told to now expect 3-5" of snow overnight. It is snowing here, and we may well have 3" by morning. Presently it's about 1" of slushy snow.

32 degrees here at 1:00am. Wind from the NW is light to 10kts, but we're expecting gusts to 25 tonight and 35 tomorrow.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
218. originalLT
5:27 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Obs. from Stamford CT. at 12:20AM, 39.4F and falling, wind NW 15-25mph, with gusts to near 40mph. Baro. is at 29.40" and steady(may have bottomed out), light rain falling. Total rainfall from this event, 2.21".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
217. shipweather
4:48 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
very windy
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
216. testbenchdude
4:43 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Big, sloppy snowflakes mixing in with moderate to heavy rain under a driving wind here in West Chester, PA. Somewhat surprised it's happening so early, but it looks like this system is moving too fast for us to get any accumulation, although it went from ~40F to 34F in about an hour. I'll tell you what though, the ground is super saturated here, and the lights have started to flicker.

Stay safe, everyone. :)
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
215. MariettaMoon
4:03 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
@11pm, 34F, light rain/snow mix, no accumulation. Not expecting any. Good night...
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
214. RkTec
3:45 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Emmaus, PA

2.06" of rain so far
Temp is at 37
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
213. HeavySnow
3:38 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Coming home from hoops,was diverted due to flooded roadways and streams over their banks.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
212. bwi
3:28 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Amazing amount of rain in DC over the last 18 hours. Reminds me of September. Everything's ponded and rivers are above flood. Ridiculous.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1357
211. anduril
3:27 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Im wondering if there is just something seriously wrong with almost ALL of the forecast models.

This hurricane season was about the worst I have ever seen the models do. Now, winter is off to the same start. The storms are practically impossible to gauge/predict from location, to severity, to type of precip, and temps. The last 6 months of weather forecasting have been awful, across the board.

I think there is something up with the atmosphere thats messing with the computers big time.
I wouldn't say its the atmosphere messing with the computers rather we lack the math to understand the atmosphere. It makes so many other fields look like childrens play. Hell, we can barely accurately forecast a day out in a local area and heaven forbid you throw in mountains, valleys, and large bodies of water! I think we're seeing some sort of linkage here that the models (the math) don't understand...whether its the incredible alaskian weather over the past month or two, which most likely follows the highly active season in the pacific and lord knows what I havent tracked in the far east and russia.

Its not weather driving is crazy...its our lack of understanding of our own damn planet that drives us nuts
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
210. CapeCoralStorm
3:13 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Im wondering if there is just something seriously wrong with almost ALL of the forecast models.

This hurricane season was about the worst I have ever seen the models do. Now, winter is off to the same start. The storms are practically impossible to gauge/predict from location, to severity, to type of precip, and temps. The last 6 months of weather forecasting have been awful, across the board.

I think there is something up with the atmosphere thats messing with the computers big time.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
209. MariettaMoon
3:07 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
yeah baby! Thundersnow in Marietta!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
208. MariettaMoon
3:02 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
@ 10pm in Marietta, PA
35F
-2F last hour
Moderate Snow/Rain mix
More snow than rain
No accumulation
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
207. anduril
2:56 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Well I take it this is the first bust of the snow season year. My forecast looks like a joke, ugh. I will have a short analysis about what went wrong early tomorrow morning.
Looks like alot of the forecasts are going to end up looking like a joke. Still, it was a very hard storm to forecast all told. Atleast we got some flakes and a few bucks of thunder
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
206. TheRasberryPatch
2:54 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
windy 36F with light snow and a little rain....over 1.5" of rain for the storm.

Campbelltown, PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
205. MariettaMoon
2:36 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Marietta PA @ 9:30 pm
37F
Rain/Snow mix
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
204. Zachary Labe
2:36 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Well I take it this is the first bust of the snow season year. My forecast looks like a joke, ugh. I will have a short analysis about what went wrong early tomorrow morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
203. shipweather
2:32 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
boring.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
202. wxgeek723
2:24 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting PhillySnow:
48F, the wind is howling, snow is back in the forecast for 3am. I'll probably wake up to check on it.

Our power went out and came back on, which probably means we'll lose it shortly. I'll be sorry to miss out on all the observations, chatter, and inspired moments (like your last post, Goofy!).


What he said, heavy rain and screeching winds, this is worse than Irene, LOL.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3320
201. PhillySnow
2:21 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
48F, the wind is howling, snow is back in the forecast for 3am. I'll probably wake up to check on it.

Our power went out and came back on, which probably means we'll lose it shortly. I'll be sorry to miss out on all the observations, chatter, and inspired moments (like your last post, Goofy!).
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
200. MariettaMoon
2:20 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
PA Stations reporting snow @ 9pm
ALTOONA, LGT SNOW, 35
WILLIAMSPORT, FLURRIES, 33
SELINSGROVE, LGT SNOW, 34
HARRISBURG , LGT SNOW, 37
SCRANTON, LGT SNOW, 33

Heres the problem. The heavy precipitation is placed just east of the rain/snow line. Mainly light snow behind the line.
LANCASTER, HVY RAIN, 39
COATESVILLE, HVY RAIN, 41
POTTSTOWN, HVY RAIN, 43
NORTH PHILA, HVY RAIN, 47
PHILADELPHIA, HVY RAIN, 48
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
199. MariettaMoon
2:04 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
@ 9pm in Marietta, PA
37F
-3F last hour
Light Rain
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
198. goofyrider
2:04 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
To the member formerly known as p451 or hudson valley451 or starburst451 or singsing451 :
We have had a bit of rain, tumolt from the neufs, and we are in hope that the snows of the highlands will migrate east and suspect that the center will not hold, the heat from the sea will melt the beautiful white stuff and we will again watch the melt of the flakes.

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2646
197. anduril
1:54 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Looks like this storm is going to bust which makes me sad. It's just moving too fast and the temps didn't drop quite quick enough for this area atleast
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
196. TheRasberryPatch
1:43 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
37F with a rainfall rate of 0.22"/hour. Rainfall for the storm is now 1.37".

Campbelltown, PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
195. Zachary Labe
1:42 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


You're not lol.

My parents said snow was laying on the cars and some of the ground just a bit ago over towards Linglestown.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
194. PalmyraPunishment
1:41 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
I cannot believe I am missing more snow in Harrisburg, what a joke...


You're not lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
193. Zachary Labe
1:40 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Wow, that back edge is moving fast!

I cannot believe I am missing more snow in Harrisburg, what a joke...

Looks like totals will be lower than expected unfortunately, but enjoy what falls as warmth is ahead!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
192. TheF1Man
1:33 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Far too warm for anything here in springfield, MA. Hopefully you guys are getting decent snow though. Maybe we'll get some flakes on the backside. I bet icing will be a problem tomorrow morning.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
191. photonchaser
1:28 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
All rain here. I thought that it was December....AKA Winter. Where is all my snow?
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
190. shipweather
1:26 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


this is how you know a storm su-su-su-sucks.


Exactly. But I'm still getting a little snow mixing in here and I'm just across the river.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
189. hurigo
1:26 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Pouring rain, deck furniture toppled over and then, quiet
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
188. shipweather
1:25 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
rain snow mix continues here
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
187. PalmyraPunishment
1:25 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting shipweather:
im too lazy to move to the window and look


this is how you know a storm su-su-su-sucks.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
186. shipweather
1:25 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
rain snow mix continues here.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
185. shipweather
1:23 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
im too lazy to move to the window and look
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
184. LivelySnow
1:22 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Snow laying on deck, grass and especially the mulch. 34 degrees!
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
183. Snargle
1:22 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Still just raining east of Harrisburg city...no snow yet.
Member Since: December 25, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
182. MariettaMoon
1:21 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
PA Stations reporting snow @ 8pm
PITTSBURGH INT, FLURRIES, 33
JOHNSTOWN, LGT SNOW, 28
ALTOONA, FLURRIES, 35
STATE COLLEGE, LGT SNOW, 34
WILLIAMSPORT, LGT SNOW, 33
SELINSGROVE, LGT SNOW, 33
SCRANTON, LGT SNOW , 35
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
181. wxgeek723
1:20 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Heavy rain. -_-
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3320
180. PalmyraPunishment
1:19 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
I hope this isn't the story of this winter, but I fear that it will be.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
179. PalmyraPunishment
1:19 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Didn't last too long but there was a few minutes of mixed precip snow/rain over here. That has ended.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
178. HeavySnow
1:19 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
rain and wind


Yay for you PP.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
177. anduril
1:18 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
SNOW.
Yup. Very light snow mixing in now in Camp Hill
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
51 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations